Treatment Options for Distal Rectal Cancer in the Era of Organ Preservation

OPINION STATEMENT

The introduction of total mesorectal excision into the radical surgery of rectal cancer has significantly improved the oncological outcome with longer survival and lower local recurrence. Traditional treatment modalities of distal rectal cancer, relying on radical surgery, while effective, take their own set of risks, including surgical complications, potential damage to the anus, and surrounding structure owing to the pursuit of thorough resection. The progress of operating methods as well as the integration of systemic therapies and radiotherapy into the peri-operative period, particularly the exciting clinical complete response of patients after neoadjuvant treatment, have paved the way for organ preservation strategy. The non-inferiority oncological outcome of "watch and wait" compared with radical surgery underscores the potential of organ preservation not only to control local recurrence but also to reduce the need for treatments followed by structure destruction, hopefully improving the long-term quality of life. Radical radiotherapy provides another treatment option for patients unwilling or unable to undergo surgery. Organ preservation points out the direction of treatment for distal rectal cancer, while additional researches are needed to answer remaining questions about its optimal use.

Prospective comparison of restriction spectrum imaging and non-invasive biomarkers to predict upgrading on active surveillance prostate biopsy

BACKGROUND

Protocol-based active surveillance (AS) biopsies have led to poor compliance. To move to risk-based protocols, more accurate imaging biomarkers are needed to predict upgrading on AS prostate biopsy. We compared restriction spectrum imaging (RSI-MRI) generated signal maps as a biomarker to other available non-invasive biomarkers to predict upgrading or reclassification on an AS biopsy.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled men on prostate cancer AS undergoing repeat biopsy from January 2016 to June 2019 to obtain an MRI and biomarkers to predict upgrading. Subjects underwent a prostate multiparametric MRI and a short duration, diffusion-weighted enhanced MRI called RSI to generate a restricted signal map along with evaluation of 30 biomarkers (14 clinico-epidemiologic features, 9 molecular biomarkers, and 7 radiologic-associated features). Our primary outcome was upgrading or reclassification on subsequent AS prostate biopsy. Statistical analysis included operating characteristic improvement using AUROC and AUPRC.

RESULTS

The individual biomarker with the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) was RSI-MRI (AUC = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.71-0.96). The best non-imaging biomarker was prostate volume-corrected Prostate Health Index density (PHI, AUC = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.53-0.82). Non-imaging biomarkers had a negligible effect on predicting upgrading at the next biopsy but did improve predictions of overall time to progression in AS.

CONCLUSIONS

RSI-MRI, PIRADS, and PHI could improve the predictive ability to detect upgrading in AS. The strongest predictor of clinically significant prostate cancer on AS biopsy was RSI-MRI signal output.

Exploring the relation of active surveillance schedules and prostate cancer mortality

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS), where treatment is deferred until cancer progression is detected by a biopsy, is acknowledged as a way to reduce overtreatment in prostate cancer. However, a consensus on the frequency of taking biopsies while in AS is lacking. In former studies to optimize biopsy schedules, the delay in progression detection was taken as an evaluation indicator and believed to be associated with the long-term outcome, prostate cancer mortality. Nevertheless, this relation was never investigated in empirical data. Here, we use simulated data from a microsimulation model to fill this knowledge gap.

METHODS

In this study, the established MIcrosimulation SCreening Analysis model was extended with functionality to simulate the AS procedures. The biopsy sensitivity in the model was calibrated on the Canary Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Study (PASS) data, and four (tri-yearly, bi-yearly, PASS, and yearly) AS programs were simulated. The relation between detection delay and prostate cancer mortality was investigated by Cox models.

RESULTS

The biopsy sensitivity of progression detection was found to be 50%. The Cox models show a positive relation between a longer detection delay and a higher risk of prostate cancer death. A 2-year delay resulted in a prostate cancer death risk of 2.46%-2.69% 5 years after progression detection and a 10-year risk of 5.75%-5.91%. A 4-year delay led to an approximately 8% greater 5-year risk and an approximately 25% greater 10-year risk.

CONCLUSION

The detection delay is confirmed as a surrogate for prostate cancer mortality. A cut-off for a "safe" detection delay could not be identified.

Whether the watch-and-wait strategy has application value for rectal cancer with clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy? A network meta-analysis

The aim was to evaluate the efficacy and safety between the watch-and-wait strategy (WW), radical surgery (RS), and local excision (LE) for rectal cancer with clinical complete response (cCR) after neoadjuvant radiotherapy (nCRT). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and clinical trials to compare WW with RS and LE for patients with cCR until March 2023 and collected the following data: local recurrence (LR), distant metastasis (DM), cancer-related death (CRD), overall survival (OS), and disease-free survival (DFS). In total, 2240 patients from 21 studies were included. Pairwise meta-analysis revealed no statistically significant differences between the three groups in terms of CRD and 2-, 3-, and 5-year OS (P < 0.05). The RS group was significantly better than the WW group in terms of the LR rate (odds ratio [OR] = 0.12, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.06-0.21, P < 0.001, I2 = 0 %], 3-year DFS (OR = 1.56, 95 % CI: 1.10-2.21, P = 0.01, I2 = 38 %), and 5-year DFS (OR = 2.30, 95 % CI: 1.53-3.46, P < 0.001, I2 = 34 %). The results of network meta-analysis were also similar. After sensitivity analysis, the 5-year OS of the RS group was significantly better than that of the WW group (OR = 2.77, 95 % CI: 1.28-6.00, P = 0.009, I2 = 33 %). Nevertheless, neither regression analysis nor subgroup analysis provided meaningful results. However, the cumulative meta-analysis of LR, DM, and 3- and 5-year DFS revealed significant turning points (P < 0.05). Our meta-analysis recommends using the WW strategy for patients with cCR having poor underlying conditions and high surgical risk; however, there is a risk of higher LR and worse survival after 3 years.

Active Surveillance for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancers: A Review of Current Practice Guidelines

The indolent nature and favorable outcomes associated with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma have prompted numerous prospective studies on active surveillance (AS) and its adoption as an alternative to immediate surgery in managing low-risk thyroid cancer. This article reviews the current status of AS, as outlined in various international practice guidelines. AS is typically recommended for tumors that measure 1 cm or less in diameter and do not exhibit aggressive subtypes on cytology, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis. To determine the most appropriate candidates for AS, factors such as tumor size, location, multiplicity, and ultrasound findings are considered, along with patient characteristics like medical condition, age, and family history. Moreover, shared decision-making, which includes patient-reported outcomes such as quality of life and cost-effectiveness, is essential. During AS, patients undergo regular ultrasound examinations to monitor for signs of disease progression, including tumor growth, extrathyroidal extension, or lymph node metastasis. In conclusion, while AS is a feasible and reliable approach for managing lowrisk thyroid cancer, it requires careful patient selection, effective communication for shared decision-making, standardized follow-up protocols, and a clear definition of disease progression.

Which tumour factors preclude organ preservation in patients with rectal cancer?

BACKGROUND

cT3cdT4, cN2, mesorectal nodes > 8 mm, clinically positive lateral nodes, extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) and mesorectal fascia threatening (MRF+) have been utilized as exclusion criteria in several studies on the watch-and-wait (w&w) strategy. Here, our aim was to validate these criteria through a post hoc analysis of two pooled prospective studies on w&w following routine radio(chemo)therapy.

METHODS

A review of baseline magnetic resonance imaging was performed in a subgroup of 223 patients treated at a single institution. Of these, 17.9 % started w&w, 12.6 % achieved clinical complete response (cCR) and 9.0 % sustained cCR during median follow-up of 54 months.

RESULTS

The multivariable logistic analysis showed that the proportion of circumferential bowel involvement and EMVI significantly influenced the chance of sustained cCR; odds ratios were 0.063 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.008-0.489, p = 0.008), and 0.109 (95 % CI 0.014-0.850, p = 0.034), respectively. Sustained cCR was observed in none of the 57 patients with 90 %-100 % circumferential bowel involvement and in only one of the 89 patients with EMVI. In contrast, cT3cdT4, cN2, mesorectal nodes > 8 mm, clinically positive lateral nodes or MRF+ were not independently associated with sustained cCR. Among the subgroups of patients with these features but without (near-)circular tumour or EMVI+, sustained cCR was observed in 12 %-25 % of patients.

CONCLUSION

Sustained cCR after routine preoperative radio(chemo)therapy is unlikely in patients with (near-)circular tumour or EMVI, whereas patients with cT3cdT4, cN2, mesorectal nodes > 8 mm, clinically positive lateral nodes and MRF+ should not be denied w&w.

The Brazilian national prospective active surveillance (AS) cohort of patients with low-risk prostate cancer in the public health system: vigiaSUS study protocol

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer exhibits a very diverse behaviour, with some patients dying from the disease and others never needing treatment. Active surveillance (AS) consists of periodic PSA assessment (prostate-specific antigen), DRE (digital rectal examination) and periodic prostate biopsies. According to the main guidelines, AS is the preferred strategy for low-risk patients, to avoid or delay definitive treatment. However, concerns remain regarding its applicability in certain patient subgroups, such as African American men, who were underrepresented in the main cohorts. Brazil has a very racially diverse population, with 56.1% self-reporting as brown or black. The aim of this study is to evaluate and validate the AS strategy in low-risk prostate cancer patients following an AS protocol in the Brazilian public health system.

METHODS

This is a multicentre AS prospective cohort study that will include 200 patients from all regions of Brazil in the public health system. Patients with prostate adenocarcinoma and low-risk criteria, defined as clinical staging T1-T2a, Gleason score ≤ 6, and PSA < 10 ng/ml, will be enrolled. Archival prostate cancer tissue will be centrally reviewed. Patients enrolled in the study will follow the AS strategy, which involves PSA and physical examination every 6 months as well as multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) every two years and prostate biopsy at month 12 and then every two years. The primary objective is to evaluate the reclassification rate at 12 months, and secondary objectives include determining the treatment-free survival rate, metastasis-free survival, and specific and overall survival. Exploratory objectives include the evaluation of quality of life and anxiety, the impact of PTEN loss and the economic impact of AS on the Brazilian public health system.

DISCUSSION

This is the first Brazilian prospective study of patients with low-risk prostate cancer under AS. To our knowledge, this is one of the largest AS study cohort with a majority of nonwhite patients. We believe that this study is an opportunity to better understand the outcomes of AS in populations underrepresented in studies. Based on these data, an AS national clinical guideline will be developed, which may have a beneficial impact on the quality of life of patients and on public health.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials registration is NCT05343936.

Light and shadow of watch-and-wait strategy in rectal cancer: oncological result, clinical outcomes, and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The watch-and-wait (WW) strategy is a potential option for patients with rectal cancer who obtain a complete clinic response after neoadjuvant therapy. The aim of this study is to analyze the long-term oncological outcomes and perform a cost-effectiveness analysis in patients undergoing this strategy for rectal cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The data of patients treated with the WW strategy were prospectively collected from January 2015 to January 2020. A control group was created, matched 1:1 from a pool of 480 patients undergoing total mesorectal excision. An independent company carried out the financial analysis. Clinical and oncological outcomes were analyzed in both groups. Outcome parameters included surgical and follow-up costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost per QALY gained or the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

Forty patients were included in the WW group, with 40 patients in the surgical group. During a median follow-up period of 36 months, metastasis-free survival (MFS) and overall survival (OS) were similar in the two groups. In the WW group, nine (22%) local regrowths were detected in the first 2 years. The permanent stoma rate was slightly higher after salvage surgery in the WW group compared to the surgical group (48.5% vs 20%, p < 0.01). The cost-effectiveness analysis was slightly better for the WW group, especially for low rectal cancer compared to medium-high rectal cancer (ICER =  - 108,642.1 vs ICER =  - 42,423).

CONCLUSIONS

The WW strategy in locally advanced rectal cancer offers similar oncological outcomes with respect to the surgical group and excellent results in quality of life and cost outcomes, especially for low rectal cancer. Nonetheless, the complex surgical field during salvage surgery can lead to a high permanent stoma rate; therefore, the careful selection of patients is mandatory.

The Crying Need for a Better Response Assessment in Rectal Cancer

OPINION STATEMENT

Since total neoadjuvant treatment achieves almost 30% pathologic complete response, organ preservation has been increasingly debated for good responders after neoadjuvant treatment for patients diagnosed with rectal cancer. Two organ preservation strategies are available: a watch and wait strategy and a local excision strategy including patients with a near clinical complete response. A major issue is the selection of patients according to the initial tumor staging or the response assessment. Despite modern imaging improvement, identifying complete response remains challenging. A better selection could be possible by radiomics analyses, exploiting numerous image features to feed data characterization algorithms. The subsequent step is to include baseline and/or pre-therapeutic MRI, PET-CT, and CT radiomics added to the patients' clinicopathological data, inside machine learning (ML) prediction models, with predictive or prognostic purposes. These models could be further improved by the addition of new biomarkers such as circulating tumor biomarkers, molecular profiling, or pathological immune biomarkers.

Baseline prostate health index risk category and risk category changes during active surveillance predict grade reclassification

BACKGROUND

It is not known whether baseline prostate health index (PHI) at the initiation of active surveillance (AS) or repeated PHI testing during AS is of clinical value after confirmatory biopsy in AS men followed with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI).

METHODS

We identified 382 AS patients with no greater than Grade Group 1 (GG1) prostate cancer on diagnostic and confirmatory biopsy, at least one mpMRI and PHI test, of which 241 had at least 2 PHI tests. Grade reclassification (GR) was defined as ≥GG2 on surveillance biopsy. PHI risk categories 1 to 4 were as defined by the manufacturer. Associations between baseline PHI risk category or baseline PSA density (PSAD), change in PHI risk categories over time or PSAD changes over time and GR were evaluated with multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for age, Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System score and number of positive cores.

RESULTS

Men with baseline PHI scores in the highest risk categories had lower rates of GR-free survival (log-rank P < 0.001), as did those who increased in PHI risk category or remained in a high PHI risk category during surveillance (log-rank P = 0.032). On multivariable regression, baseline PHI risk category was a predictor of GR (risk category 4 [vs. 1] hazard ratio [HR] 2.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-5.66, P = 0.002, model C-index 0.764, Akaike Information Criterion [AIC] 797), as were PHI risk category changes over time (risk category 4 [vs. 1] HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.76-10.05, P = 0.002, C-index 0.759, AIC 489). Separate models with baseline PSAD and PSAD changes over time yielded C-indices of 0.709 (AIC 809) and 0.733 (AIC 495) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline PHI risk category and PHI changes over time were both independent predictors of GR after confirmatory biopsy, but the added benefit over PSAD seemed modest. However, baseline PHI and PHI risk category changes provided clinically useful risk stratification for time to GR, so further evaluation of PHI's ability to help reduce the frequency of mpMRI and/or surveillance biopsies with more PHI data points over time may be warranted.

Is Active Surveillance Too Active?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Many prostate cancer active surveillance protocols mandate serial monitoring at defined intervals, including but certainly not limited to serum PSA (often every 6 months), clinic visits, prostate multiparametric MRI, and repeat prostate biopsies. The purpose of this article is to evaluate whether current protocols result in excessive testing of patients on active surveillance.

RECENT FINDINGS

Multiple studies have been published in the past several years evaluating the utility of multiparametric MRI, serum biomarkers, and serial prostate biopsy for men on active surveillance. While MRI and serum biomarkers have promise with risk stratification, no studies have demonstrated that periodic prostate biopsy can be safely omitted in active surveillance. Active surveillance for prostate cancer is too active for some men with seemingly low-risk cancer. The use of multiple prostate MRIs or additional biomarkers do not always add to the prediction of higher-grade disease on surveillance biopsy.

Active surveillance should be considered for select men with Grade Group 2 prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Treatment decisions for localized prostate cancer must balance patient preferences, oncologic risk, and preservation of sexual, urinary and bowel function. While Active Surveillance (AS) is the recommended option for men with Grade Group 1 (Gleason Score 3 + 3 = 6) prostate cancer without other intermediate-risk features, men with Grade Group 2 (Gleason Score 3 + 4 = 7) are typically recommended active treatment. For select patients, AS can be a possible initial management strategy for men with Grade Group 2. Herein, we review current urology guidelines and the urologic literature regarding recommendations and evidence for AS for this patient group.

MAIN BODY

AS benefits men with prostate cancer by maintaining their current quality of life and avoiding treatment side effects. AS protocols with close follow up always allow for an option to change course and pursue curative treatment. All the major guideline organizations now include Grade Group 2 disease with slightly differing definitions of eligibility based on risk using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, clinical stage, and other factors. Selected men with Grade Group 2 on AS have similar rates of deferred treatment and metastasis to men with Grade Group 1 on AS. There is a growing body of evidence from randomized controlled trials, large observational (prospective and retrospective) cohorts that confirm the oncologic safety of AS for these men. While some men will inevitably conclude AS at some point due to clinical reclassification with biopsy or imaging, some men may be able to stay on AS until transition to watchful waiting (WW). Magnetic resonance imaging is an important tool to confirm AS eligibility, to monitor progression and guide prostate biopsy.

CONCLUSION

AS is a viable initial management option for well-informed and select men with Grade Group 2 prostate cancer, low volume of pattern 4, and no other adverse clinicopathologic findings following a well-defined monitoring protocol. In the modern era of AS, urologists have tools at their disposal to better stage patients at initial diagnosis, risk stratify patients, and gain information on the biologic potential of a patient's prostate cancer.

Is Nonoperative Management of Rectal Cancer Feasible?

During the past decade, the treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) has become more complex. Total neoadjuvant treatment (TNT) has increased the rates of both clinical and pathologic complete response, resulting in improved long-term oncological outcomes. The feasibility to implement nonoperative management (NOM) depends on solving current challenges such as how to correctly identify the best candidates for a NOM without compromising oncologic safety. NOM should be part of the treatment discussion of LARC, considering increasing rates of clinical complete response, potential quality of life gains, avoidance of surgical morbidity, and patient preferences.

The Role of Probe-Based Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy (pCLE) in the Diagnosis of Sustained Clinical Complete Response Under Watch-and-Wait Strategy After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Rectal Adenocarcinoma: a Score Validation

BACKGROUND

Watch-and-wait strategy has been increasingly accepted for patients with clinical complete response (cCR) after multimodal treatment for locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma. Close follow-up is essential to the early detection of local regrowth. It was previously demonstrated that probe-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (pCLE) scoring using the combination of epithelial and vascular features might improve the diagnostic accuracy of cCR.

AIM

To validate the pCLE scoring system in the assessment of patients with cCR after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRxt) for advanced rectal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

Digital rectal examination, pelvic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and pCLE were performed in 43 patients with cCR, who presented either a scar (N = 33; 76.7%) or a small ulcer with no signs of tumor, and/or biopsy negative for malignancy (N = 10; 23.3%).

RESULTS

Twenty-five (58.1%) patients were men, and the mean age was 58.4 years. During the follow-up, 12/43 (27.9%) patients presented local regrowth and underwent salvage surgery. There was an association between pCLE diagnostic scoring and final histological report (for patients who underwent surgical resection) or final diagnosis at the latest follow-up (p = 0.0001), while this association was not observed with MRI (p = 0.49). pCLE sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 66.7%, 93.5%, 80%, 88.9%, and 86%, respectively. MRI sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 66.7%, 48.4%, 66.7%, 78.9%, and 53.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

pCLE scoring system based on epithelial and vascular features improved the diagnosis of sustained cCR and might be recommended during follow-up. pCLE might add some valuable contribution for identifying local regrowth. Trial Registration This protocol was registered at the Clinical Trials (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02284802).

Comparing Active Surveillance and Watchful Waiting With Radical Treatment Using Machine Learning Models Among Patients With Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

In 2021, 59.6% of low-risk patients with prostate cancer were under active surveillance (AS) as their first course of treatment. However, few studies have investigated AS and watchful waiting (WW) separately. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate a population-level machine learning model for distinguishing AS and WW in the conservative treatment group, and to investigate initial cancer management trends from 2004 to 2017 and the risk of chronic diseases among patients with prostate cancer with different treatment modalities.

METHODS

In a cohort of 18,134 patients with prostate adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 2004 and 2017, 1,926 patients with available AS/WW information were analyzed using machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. Models were evaluated using performance metrics and Brier score. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios for chronic disease risk.

RESULTS

Logistic regression models achieved a test area under the receiver operating curve of 0.73, F-score of 0.79, accuracy of 0.71, and Brier score of 0.29, demonstrating good calibration, precision, and recall values. We noted a sharp increase in AS use between 2004 and 2016 among patients with low-risk prostate cancer and a moderate increase among intermediate-risk patients between 2008 and 2017. Compared with the AS group, radical treatment was associated with a lower risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality but higher risks of Alzheimer disease, anemia, glaucoma, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension.

CONCLUSION

A machine learning approach accurately distinguished AS and WW groups in conservative treatment in this decision analytical model study. Our results provide insight into the necessity to separate AS and WW in population-based studies.

Upfront Radiosurgery vs a Wait-and-Scan Approach for Small- or Medium-Sized Vestibular Schwannoma: The V-REX Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Current guidelines for treating small- to medium-sized vestibular schwannoma recommend either upfront radiosurgery or waiting to treat until tumor growth has been detected radiographically.

Objective

To determine whether upfront radiosurgery provides superior tumor volume reduction to a wait-and-scan approach for small- to medium-sized vestibular schwannoma.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Randomized clinical trial of 100 patients with a newly diagnosed (<6 months) unilateral vestibular schwannoma and a maximal tumor diameter of less than 2 cm in the cerebellopontine angle as measured on magnetic resonance imaging. Participants were enrolled at the Norwegian National Unit for Vestibular Schwannoma from October 28, 2014, through October 3, 2017; 4-year follow-up ended on October 20, 2021.

Interventions

Participants were randomized to receive either upfront radiosurgery (n = 50) or to undergo a wait-and-scan protocol, for which treatment was given only upon radiographically documented tumor growth (n = 50). Participants underwent 5 annual study visits consisting of clinical assessment, radiological examination, audiovestibular tests, and questionnaires.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the ratio between tumor volume at the trial end at 4 years and baseline (V4:V0). There were 26 prespecified secondary outcomes, including patient-reported symptoms, clinical examinations, audiovestibular tests, and quality-of-life outcomes. Safety outcomes were the risk of salvage microsurgery and radiation-associated complications.

Results

Of the 100 randomized patients, 98 completed the trial and were included in the primary analysis (mean age, 54 years; 42% female). In the upfront radiosurgery group, 1 participant (2%) received repeated radiosurgery upon tumor growth, 2 (4%) needed salvage microsurgery, and 45 (94%) had no additional treatment. In the wait-and-scan group, 21 patients (42%) received radiosurgery upon tumor growth, 1 (2%) underwent salvage microsurgery, and 28 (56%) remained untreated. For the primary outcome of the ratio of tumor volume at the trial end to baseline, the geometric mean V4:V0 was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.66-1.15) in the upfront radiosurgery group and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.23-1.84) in the wait-and-scan group, showing a significantly greater tumor volume reduction in patients treated with upfront radiosurgery (wait-and-scan to upfront radiosurgery ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.23-2.44; P = .002). Of 26 secondary outcomes, 25 showed no significant difference. No radiation-associated complications were observed.

Conclusion and relevance

Among patients with newly diagnosed small- and medium-sized vestibular schwannoma, upfront radiosurgery demonstrated a significantly greater tumor volume reduction at 4 years than a wait-and-scan approach with treatment upon tumor growth. These findings may help inform treatment decisions for patients with vestibular schwannoma, and further investigation of long-term clinical outcomes is needed.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02249572.

Retrospective analysis of the uptake of active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer in Zurich, Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

Active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer closely monitors patients conservatively instead of the pursuit of active treatment to reduce overtreatment of insignificant disease. Since 2009, active surveillance has been recommended as the primary management option in the European Association of Urology guidelines for low-risk disease. The present study aimed to investigate the use and uptake of active surveillance over 10 years in our certified prostate cancer centre (University Hospital of Zurich) compared with those derived from the cancer registry of the canton of Zurich, Switzerland.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively identified all men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer at our institution and from the cancer registry of the canton of Zurich from 2009 to 2018. The primary treatment of each patient was recorded. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the use of different treatments in our centre. The results were compared with those derived from the cancer registry.

RESULTS

A total of 3393 men with low-risk prostate cancer were included in this study (University Hospital of Zurich: n = 262; cancer registry: n = 3131). In the University Hospital of Zurich and cancer registry cohorts, 146 (55.7%) and 502 (16%) men underwent active surveillance, respectively. The proportions of local treatment [115 (43.9%) vs 2220 (71%)] and androgen deprivation therapy [0 (0%) vs 43 (1.4%)] were distinctly lower in the University Hospital of Zurich cohort than in the cancer registry cohort. The uptake of active surveillance over the years was high in the University Hospital of Zurich cohort (35.4% in 2009 and 88.2% in 2018) but only marginal in the cancer registry cohort (12.2% in 2009 and 16.2% in 2018).

CONCLUSION

Despite clear guideline recommendations, active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer is still widely underused. Our analysis showed that access to a certified interdisciplinary tumour board significantly increases the use of active surveillance.

Explainable ML models for a deeper insight on treatment decision for localized prostate cancer

Although there are several decision aids for the treatment of localized prostate cancer (PCa), there are limitations in the consistency and certainty of the information provided. We aimed to better understand the treatment decision process and develop a decision-predicting model considering oncologic, demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors. Men newly diagnosed with localized PCa between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Prostate with Watchful Waiting database were included (n = 255,837). We designed two prediction models: (1) Active surveillance/watchful waiting (AS/WW), radical prostatectomy (RP), and radiation therapy (RT) decision prediction in the entire cohort. (2) Prediction of AS/WW decisions in the low-risk cohort. The discrimination of the model was evaluated using the multiclass area under the curve (AUC). A plausible Shapley additive explanations value was used to explain the model's prediction results. Oncological variables affected the RP decisions most, whereas RT was highly affected by geographic factors. The dependence plot depicted the feature interactions in reaching a treatment decision. The decision predicting model achieved an overall multiclass AUC of 0.77, whereas 0.74 was confirmed for the low-risk model. Using a large population-based real-world database, we unraveled the complex decision-making process and visualized nonlinear feature interactions in localized PCa.

Outcomes of Grade Group 2 and 3 Prostate Cancer on Initial Versus Confirmatory Biopsy: Implications for Active Surveillance

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) is recommended as the preferred treatment for men with low-risk disease. In order to optimize risk stratification and exclude undiagnosed higher-grade disease, most AS protocols recommend a confirmatory biopsy.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare outcomes among men with grade group (GG) 2/3 prostate cancer on initial biopsy with those among men whose disease was initially GG1 but was upgraded to GG2/3 on confirmatory biopsy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We reviewed patients undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) in two cohorts: "immediate RP group," with GG2/3 cancer on diagnostic biopsy, and "AS group," with GG1 cancer on initial biopsy that was upgraded to GG2/3 on confirmatory biopsy.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Probabilities of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and salvage therapy were determined using multivariable Cox regression models with risk adjustment. Risks of adverse pathology at RP were also compared using logistic regression.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

The immediate RP group comprised 4009 patients and the AS group comprised 321 patients. The AS group had lower adjusted rates of adverse pathology (27% vs 35%, p = 0.003). BCR rates were lower in the AS group, although this did not reach conventional significance (hazard ratio [HR] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-1.06, p = 0.10) compared with the immediate RP group. Risk-adjusted 1- and 5-yr BCR rates were 4.6% (95% CI 3.0-6.5%) and 10.4% (95% CI 6.9-14%), respectively, for the AS group compared with 6.3% (95% CI 5.6-7.0%) and 20% (95% CI 19-22%), respectively, in the immediate RP group. A nonsignificant association was observed for salvage treatment-free survival favoring the AS group (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.42, 1.06, p = 0.087).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that men with GG1 cancer who were upgraded on confirmatory biopsy tend to have less aggressive disease than men with the same grade found at initial biopsy. These results must be confirmed in larger series before recommendations can be made regarding a more conservative approach in men with upgraded pathology on surveillance biopsy.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We studied men with low-risk prostate cancer who were initially eligible for active surveillance but presented with more aggressive cancer on confirmatory biopsy. We found that outcomes for these men were better than the outcomes for those diagnosed initially with more serious cancer.

mpMRI Interpretation in Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer-An overview of the PRECISE score

Active surveillance (AS) is now included in all major guidelines for patients with low-risk PCa and selected patients with intermediate-risk PCa. Several studies have highlighted the potential benefit of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) in AS and it has been adopted in some guidelines. However, uncertainty remains about whether serial mpMRI can help to safely reduce the number of required repeat biopsies under AS. In 2017, the European School of Oncology initiated the Prostate Cancer Radiological Estimation of Change in Sequential Evaluation (PRECISE) panel which proposed the PRECISE scoring system to assess the likelihood of radiological tumor progression on serial mpMRI. The PRECISE scoring system remains the only major system evaluated in multiple publications. In this review article, we discuss the current body of literature investigating the application of PRECISE as it is not as yet an established standard in mpMRI reporting. We delineate the strengths of PRECISE and its potential added value. Also, we underline potential weaknesses of the PRECISE scoring system, which might be tackled in future versions to further increase its value in AS.

Watch-and-Wait Approach to Rectal Cancer: The Role of Imaging

The diagnosis and treatment of rectal cancer have evolved dramatically over the past several decades. At the same time, its incidence has increased in younger populations. This review will inform the reader of advances in both diagnosis and treatment. These advances have led to the watch-and-wait approach, otherwise known as nonsurgical management. This review briefly outlines changes in medical and surgical treatment, advances in MRI technology and interpretation, and landmark studies or trials that have led to this exciting juncture. Herein, the authors delve into current state-of-the-art methods to assess response to treatment with MRI and endoscopy. Currently, these methods for avoiding surgery can be used to detect a complete clinical response in as many as 50% of patients with rectal cancer. Finally, the limitations of imaging and endoscopy and future challenges will be discussed.

Active surveillance of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

Recently, the incidence of thyroid carcinoma has been increasing rapidly worldwide. This is interpreted as an increase in the incidental detection of small papillary thyroid carcinomas by the widespread use of high-resolution imaging techniques such as ultrasonography. However, the mortality rates of thyroid carcinoma have not changed, suggesting that small papillary thyroid carcinomas may be overdiagnosed and overtreated. Active surveillance management has been introduced from Japan since the 1990s, as one of the measures to prevent overtreatment of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. Based on the favorable outcomes, active surveillance has been gradually adopted worldwide as an alternative to immediate surgery. The management should be carried out with strict eligibility criteria and close monitoring for cancer progression, under a multidisciplinary team. In addition, an adequate shared decision-making is mandatory for individual patients. Papillary thyroid microcarcinomas with clinically apparent lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, or invasion to adjacent organs should have surgery.

Expectant management of preterm premature rupture of membranes at 34 weeks: a cost effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the outcomes and cost effectiveness of expectant management versus immediate delivery of women who experience preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) at 34 weeks.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness model was built using TreeAge software to compare outcomes in a theoretical cohort of 37,455 women with PPROM at 34 weeks undergoing expectant management until 37 weeks versus immediate delivery. Outcomes included fetal death, neonatal sepsis, neonatal death, neonatal neurodevelopmental delay, healthy neonate, maternal sepsis, maternal death, cost, and quality-adjusted life years. Probabilities were derived from the literature, and a cost-effectiveness threshold was set at $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year.

RESULTS

In our theoretical cohort of 37,455 women, expectant management yielded 58 fewer neonatal deaths and 164 fewer cases of neonatal neurodevelopmental delay. However, it resulted in 407 more cases of neonatal sepsis and 2.7 more cases of maternal sepsis. Expectant management resulted in 3,531 more quality-adjusted life years and a cost savings of $71.9 million per year, making it a dominant strategy. Univariate sensitivity analysis demonstrated expectant management was cost effective until the weekly cost of antepartum admission exceeded $17,536 (baseline estimate: $12,520) or the risk of maternal sepsis following intraamniotic infection exceeded 20%.

CONCLUSION

Our model demonstrated that expectant management of PPROM at 34 weeks yielded better outcomes on balance at a lower cost than immediate delivery. This analysis is important and timely in light of recent studies suggesting improved neonatal outcomes with expectant management. However, individual risks and preferences must be considered in making this clinical decision as expectant management may increase the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes when the risk of puerperal infection increases.

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Gleason Grade Progression among Men on Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer: Results from the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study

Modifiable lifestyle factors, such as following a healthy dietary pattern may delay or prevent prostate cancer (PCa) progression. However, few studies have evaluated whether following specific dietary patterns after PCa diagnosis impacts risk of disease progression among men with localized PCa managed by active surveillance (AS). 564 men enrolled in the Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study, a protocol-driven AS study utilizing a pre-specified prostate-specific antigen monitoring and surveillance biopsy regimen, completed a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) at enrollment and had ≥ 1 surveillance biopsy during follow-up. FFQs were used to evaluate adherence to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (Healthy Eating index (HEI))-2015, alternative Mediterranean Diet (aMED), and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) dietary patterns. Multivariable-adjusted hazards ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. During a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 237 men experienced an increase in Gleason score on subsequent biopsy (grade reclassification). Higher HEI-2015, aMED or DASH diet scores after diagnosis were not associated with significant reductions in the risk of grade reclassification during AS. However, these dietary patterns have well-established protective effects on chronic diseases and mortality and remain a prudent choice for men with prostate cancer managed by AS.

Impact of Prostate Health Index Results for Prediction of Biopsy Grade Reclassification During Active Surveillance

PURPOSE

We assessed whether Prostate Health Index results improve prediction of grade reclassification for men on active surveillance.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We identified men in Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study with Grade Group 1 cancer. Outcome was grade reclassification to Grade Group 2+ cancer. We considered decision rules to maximize specificity with sensitivity set at 95%. We derived rules based on clinical data (R1) vs clinical data+Prostate Health Index (R3). We considered an "or"-logic rule combining clinical score and Prostate Health Index (R4), and a "2-step" rule using clinical data followed by risk stratification based on Prostate Health Index (R2). Rules were applied to a validation set, where values of R2-R4 vs R1 for specificity and sensitivity were evaluated.

RESULTS

We included 1,532 biopsies (n = 610 discovery; n = 922 validation) among 1,142 men. Grade reclassification was seen in 27% of biopsies (23% discovery, 29% validation). Among the discovery set, at 95% sensitivity, R2 yielded highest specificity at 27% vs 17% for R1. In the validation set, R3 had best performance vs R1 with Δsensitivity = -4% and Δspecificity = +6%. There was slight improvement for R3 vs R1 for confirmatory biopsy (AUC 0.745 vs R1 0.724, ΔAUC 0.021, 95% CI 0.002-0.041) but not for subsequent biopsies (ΔAUC -0.012, 95% CI -0.031-0.006). R3 did not have better discrimination vs R1 among the biopsy cohort overall (ΔAUC 0.007, 95% CI -0.007-0.020).

CONCLUSIONS

Among active surveillance patients, using Prostate Health Index with clinical data modestly improved prediction of grade reclassification on confirmatory biopsy and did not improve prediction on subsequent biopsies.

Exploring Variation in the Receipt of Recommended Active Surveillance for Men with Favorable-Risk Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

Men on active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer do not receive all the recommended testing. Reasons for variation in receipt are unknown.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We combined prospective registry data from the Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative, a collaborative of 46 academic and community urology practices across Michigan, with insurance claims from 2014 to 2018 for men on active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer. We defined receipt of recommended surveillance according to the collaborative's low-intensity criteria as: annual prostate specific antigen testing and either magnetic resonance imaging or prostate biopsy every 3 years. We assessed receipt of recommended surveillance among men with ≥36 months of followup (246). We conducted multilevel analyses to examine the influence of the urologist, urologist and primary care provider visits, and patient demographic and clinical factors on variation in receipt.

RESULTS

During 3 years of active surveillance, just over half of men (56.5%) received all recommended surveillance testing (69.9% annual prostate specific antigen testing, 72.8% magnetic resonance imaging/biopsy). We found 19% of the variation in receipt was attributed to individual urologists. While increasing provider visits were not significantly associated with receipt, older men were less likely to receive magnetic resonance imaging/biopsy (≥75 vs <55 years, adjusted odds ratio 0.07; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly half of men on active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer did not receive all recommended surveillance. While urologists substantially influenced receipt of recommended testing, exploring how to leverage patients and their visits with their primary care providers to positively influence receipt appears warranted.

Active Surveillance Versus Immediate Surgery for Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma Patients in South Korea: A Cost-Minimization Analysis from the MAeSTro Study

Background: Active surveillance (AS) has been established as an alternative to immediate surgery for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). Nonetheless, it remains difficult to decide between AS and immediate surgery, since limited objective evidence exists regarding risks and benefits. The aim of study is to compare the cumulative costs of AS and immediate surgery. Methods: To estimate cumulative costs, a hypothetical model is simulated based on the Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study of Active Surveillance on Papillary Thyroid Micro-Carcinoma (MAeSTro) study, a multicenter prospective cohort study of AS for PTMC. Direct and indirect costs are estimated from diagnosis to the treatment decision and follow-up for 10 years and a longer period. In the case of the scenarios, AS, AS to surgery due to changing their mind, and lobectomy (analyzed regardless of levothyroxine [LT4] treatment, as well as subdivided into lobectomy/LT4[-] and lobectomy/LT4[+]) are considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed using different discount rates to address uncertainties in future time costs. To compare the cumulative costs, we referred to previous research conducted in Hong Kong, the United States, and Japan. Results: The initial cost of AS is estimated to be 5.6 times lower than that of lobectomy (regardless of LT4 use), while the 10-year cumulative costs of AS ($2545) and lobectomy regardless of LT4 ($3045) are similar under a discount rate of 3%. However, in the long-term follow-up period, immediate surgery is going to be estimated more economical than AS. The costs of the two management approaches are similar in Hong Kong, but substantially different in the United States and Japan, implying that it could be affected by each country's national health insurance coverage and the thyroid ultrasound interval during follow-up. Conclusion: Considering both direct and indirect costs, the cumulative costs of AS and immediate surgery in low-risk PTMC patients are similar during 10 years, and surgery could be more economical for patients with a life expectancy in long-term follow-up. However, careful interpretation is needed for long-term follow-up and the country's health care system and environment. Nevertheless, considering the representative protocols and objective costs in South Korea, it is expected to be a key to suggest the appropriate treatment for PTMC patients.

Watch and Wait Strategy for Rectal Cancer: How Long Should We Wait for a Clinical Complete Response?

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to determine how long to wait in locally advanced rectal tumor (LARC) patients who receive total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) and achieve a clinical complete response (cCR), and to identify the clinical parameters that affect the waiting period for the watch-and-wait strategy (W &W).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data of patients who achieved cCR between February 2015 and June 2020 were examined retrospectively. The week in which patients with cCR at the end of TNT achieved clearance was determined by reanalyzing recorded endoscopy video images. In the assessment at the time of the initial diagnosis, tumor characteristics, such as digital rectal examination findings, MRI stage, location with respect to the puborectalis muscle, annularity, and tumor size, were recorded prospectively.

RESULTS

A total of 54 patients were included in this study. According to the MRI-T stage, 14 cases were cT3a, 22 were cT3b, and 18 were cT3c-T4. Forty-four percent of the cases achieved cCR at 8-10 weeks, 19% at 12-16 weeks, 20% at 16-22 weeks, and 17% at 20-26 weeks. Patients with tumors that were early MRI-T stage (cT3a), negative clinical circumferential resection margin, mobile, small (≤4 cm), located above the puborectalis muscle and showed <180 degrees annularity achieved cCR significantly earlier than those with other tumors (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

In this study, cCR was achieved in less than half (44%) of the cases during the 8-10 week waiting period. In the W&W strategy, the initial assessment for cCR seems insufficient, and we may need to wait up to 26-30 weeks, especially in patients with advanced-stage tumors.

Why do men with prostate cancer discontinue active surveillance for definitive treatment? A mixed methods investigation

Objectives

To explore the personal and/or medical reasons patients on active surveillance (AS) have, or consider having, further definitive treatment for their prostate cancer. Research suggests up to 50% of patients on AS will discontinue within 5 years, though reasons for discontinuation from the patient's perspective is under‐explored.

Methods

Prostate cancer patients who were or had been on AS for at least 6 months were recruited. A questionnaire assessed reasons for receiving/considering definitive treatment and the extent to which reasons were personal or medical. Clinical information was extracted from a state‐level population registry. A subset of participants were interviewed to further explore questionnaire responses.

Results

One‐hundred and‐three individuals completed the survey; 33 were also interviewed. Fifty‐four survey participants (52%) had discontinued AS for definitive treatment. Common reasons for discontinuation were evidence of disease progression, doctor recommendation, desire to act, and fear of progression. Many participants who considered or had treatment reported weighing medical and personal factors equally in their decision. Interview participants described strongly considering any amount of disease progression and personal factors such as fear of progression, family concerns, and adverse vicarious experiences when deciding whether to pursue treatment.

Conclusion

Both medical and personal factors are considered when deciding whether to discontinue AS. Identifying predictors of discontinuation is essential for informing supportive care services to improve AS management.

Comparison of outcomes of different biopsy schedules among men on active surveillance for prostate cancer: An analysis of the G.A.P.3 global consortium database

BACKGROUND

The optimal interval for repeat biopsy during active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer is yet to be defined. This study examined whether risk of upgrading (to grade group ≥ 2) or risk of converting to treatment varied according to intensity of repeat biopsy using data from the GAP3 consortium's global AS database.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Intensity of surveillance biopsy schedules was categorized according to centers' protocols: (a) Prostate Cancer Research International Active Surveillance project (PRIAS) protocols with biopsies at years 1, 4, and 7 (10 centers; 7532 men); (b) biennial biopsies, that is, every other year (8 centers; 4365 men); and (c) annual biopsy schedules (4 centers; 1602 men). Multivariable Cox regression was used to compare outcomes according to biopsy intensity.

RESULTS

Out of the 13,508 eligible participants, 56% were managed according to PRIAS protocols (biopsies at years 1, 4, and 7), 32% via biennial biopsy, and 12% via annual biopsy. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, risk of converting to treatment was greater for those on annual compared with PRIAS biopsy schedules (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.51-1.83; p < 0.001), while risk of upgrading did not differ (HR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.84-1.10).

CONCLUSION

Results suggest more frequent biopsy schedules may deter some men from continuing AS despite no evidence of grade progression.

Induction of labour at 39 weeks versus expectant management in low-risk obese women: study protocol for a randomised controlled study

INTRODUCTION

Obesity is associated with many pregnancy complications, including both fetal macrosomia and prolonged labour. As a result, there is often also an increased risk of caesarean section. In other settings, labour induction near to term reduces adverse outcomes such as stillbirth and birth injury, without causing more caesarean deliveries. It has been suggested that induction will reduce adverse events in this setting too, but there have been no trials and the effect on caesarean section is unknown. The objective of this study is to compare induction of labour in gestational week 39 with expectant management on the risk of caesarean section in women with body mass index ≥30 kg/m².

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

An open label randomised controlled multicentre trial are conducted at Danish delivery departments with an in-house neonatal intensive care unit. Recruitment started October 2020. A total of 1900 women with a prepregnancy body mass index ≥30 kg/m² are randomised in a 1:1 ratio to either labour induction at 39 weeks and 0 to 3 days of gestation or to expectant management; that is, waiting for spontaneous labour onset or induction if medically indicated. The primary outcome is caesarean section. Data will be analysed according to intention-to-treat.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Central Denmark Region Committee on Biomedical Research Ethics approved the study. The study is conducted in accordance with the ethical principles outlined in the latest version of the 'Declaration of Helsinki' and the 'Guideline for Good Clinical Practice' related to experiments on humans. The trial findings will be disseminated to participants, clinicians, commissioning groups and via peer-reviewed publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04603859.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Guided Biopsy in Active Surveillance of Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

The underlying premise of prostate cancer active surveillance (AS) is that cancers likely to metastasize will be recognized and eliminated before cancer-related disease can ensue. Our study was designed to determine the prostate cancer upgrading rate when biopsy guided by magnetic resonance imaging (MRGBx) is used before entry and during AS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cohort included 519 men with low- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer who enrolled in prospective studies (NCT00949819 and NCT00102544) between February 2008 and February 2020. Subjects were preliminarily diagnosed with Gleason Grade Group (GG) 1 cancer; AS began when subsequent MRGBx confirmed GG1 or GG2. Participants underwent confirmatory MRGBx (targeted and systematic) followed by surveillance MRGBx approximately every 12 to 24 months. The primary outcome was tumor upgrading to ≥GG3.

RESULTS

Upgrading to ≥GG3 was found in 92 men after a median followup of 4.8 years (IQR 3.1-6.5) after confirmatory MRGBx. Upgrade-free probability after 5 years was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81-0.88). Cancer detected in a magnetic resonance imaging lesion at confirmatory MRGBx increased risk of subsequent upgrading during AS (HR 2.8; 95% CI 1.3-6.0), as did presence of GG2 (HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.1-8.2) In men who upgraded ≥GG3 during AS, upgrading was detected by targeted cores only in 27%, systematic cores only in 25% and both in 47%. In 63 men undergoing prostatectomy, upgrading from MRGBx was found in only 5 (8%).

CONCLUSIONS

When AS begins and follows with MRGBx (targeted and systematic), upgrading rate (≥GG3) is greater when tumor is initially present within a magnetic resonance imaging lesion or when pathology is GG2 than when these features are absent.

Outcomes of Patients With Local Regrowth After Nonoperative Management of Rectal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Clinical complete responders after chemoradiation for rectal cancer are increasingly being managed by a watch-and-wait strategy. Nonetheless, a significant proportion will experience a local regrowth, and the long-term oncological outcomes of these patients is not totally known.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcomes of patients who submitted to a watch-and-wait strategy and developed a local regrowth, and to compare these results with sustained complete clinical responders.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective study.

SETTING

Single institution, tertiary cancer center involved in alternatives to organ preservation.

PATIENTS

Patients with a biopsy-proven rectal adenocarcinoma (stage II/III or low lying cT2N0M0 at risk for an abdominoperineal resection) treated with chemoradiation who were found at restage to have a clinical complete response.

INTERVENTIONS

Rectal cancer patients treated with chemoradiation who underwent a watch-and-wait strategy (without a full thickness local excision) and developed a local regrowth were compared to the remaining patients of the watch-and-wait strategy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall survival between groups, incidence of regrowth' and results of salvage surgery.

RESULTS

There were 67 patients. Local regrowth occurred in 20 (29.9%) patients treated with a watch-and-wait strategy. Mean follow-up was 62.7 months. Regrowth occurred at mean 14.2 months after chemoradiation, half of them within the first 12 months. Patients presented with comparable initial staging, lateral pelvic lymph-node metastasis, and extramural venous invasion. The regrowth group had a statistically nonsignificant higher incidence of mesorectal fascia involvement (35.0% vs 13.3%, p = 0.089). All regrowths underwent salvage surgery, mostly (75%) a sphincter-sparing procedure. 5-year overall survival was 71.1% in patients with regrowth and 91.1% in patients with a sustained complete clinical response (p = 0.027).

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by its retrospective evaluation of patient selection for a watch-and-wait strategy and outcomes, as well as its small sample size.

CONCLUSIONS

Local regrowth is a frequent event when following a watch-and-wait policy (29.9%); however, patients could undergo salvage surgical treatment with adequate pelvic control. In this series, overall survival showed a statistically significant difference from patients managed with a watch-and-wait strategy who experienced a local regrowth compared to those who did not. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B773.RESULTADOS DE LOS PACIENTES CON REBROTE LOCAL, DESPUÉS DEL MANEJO NO QUIRÚRGICO DEL CÁNCER DE RECTO, DESPUÉS DE LA QUIMIORRADIOTERAPIA NEOADYUVANTEANTECEDENTES:Los respondedores clínicos completos, después de la quimiorradiación para el cáncer de recto, se tratan cada vez más mediante una estrategia de observación y espera. No obstante, una proporción significativa experimentará un rebrote local y los resultados oncológicos a largo plazo de estos pacientes, no se conocen por completo.OBJETIVO:El propósito de este estudio, fue analizar los resultados de los pacientes sometidos a una estrategia de observación y espera, que desarrollaron un rebrote local, y comparar estos resultados con respondedores clínicos completos sostenidos.DISEÑO:Este fue un estudio retrospectivo.ENTORNO CLINICO.Institución única, centro oncológico terciario involucrado en alternativas a la preservación de órganos.PACIENTES:Pacientes con un adenocarcinoma de recto comprobado por biopsia (estadio II / III o posición baja cT2N0M0, en riesgo de resección abdominoperineal), tratados con quimiorradiación, y que durante un reestadiaje, presentaron una respuesta clínica completa.INTERVENCIONES:Los pacientes con cáncer de recto tratados con quimiorradiación, sometidos a una estrategia de observación y espera (sin una escisión local de espesor total) y que desarrollaron un rebrote local, se compararon con los pacientes restantes de la estrategia de observación y espera.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE VALORACION:Supervivencia global entre los grupos, incidencia de rebrote y resultados de la cirugía de rescate.RESULTADOS:Fueron 67 pacientes. El rebrote local ocurrió en 20 (29,9%) pacientes tratados con una estrategia de observación y espera. El seguimiento medio fue de 62,7 meses. El rebrote se produjo a la media de 14,2 meses después de la quimiorradiación, la mitad de ellos dentro de los primeros 12 meses. Los pacientes se presentaron con una estadificación inicial comparable, metástasis en los ganglios linfáticos pélvicos laterales e invasión venosa extramural. El grupo de rebrote tuvo una mayor incidencia estadísticamente no significativa de afectación de la fascia mesorrectal (35,0 vs 13,3%, p = 0,089). Todos los rebrotes se sometieron a cirugía de rescate, en su mayoría (75%) con procedimiento de preservación del esfínter. La supervivencia global a 5 años fue del 71,1% en pacientes con rebrote y del 91,1% en pacientes con una respuesta clínica completa sostenida (p = 0,027).LIMITACIONES:Evaluación retrospectiva de la selección de pacientes para una estrategia y resultados de observar y esperar, tamaño de muestra pequeño.CONCLUSIONES:El rebrote local es un evento frecuente después de la política de observación y espera (29,9%), sin embargo los pacientes podrían someterse a un tratamiento quirúrgico de rescate con un adecuado control pélvico. En esta serie, la supervivencia global mostró una diferencia estadísticamente significativa de los pacientes manejados con una estrategia de observación y espera que experimentaron un rebrote local, en comparación con los que no lo hicieron. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B773. (Traducción-Dr. Fidel Ruiz Healy).

Delayed radical prostatectomy after a period of active surveillance is not associated with the use of secondary treatments compared with immediate prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the use of secondary treatments in men with grade group (GG) 1 PC following a period of active surveillance (AS) compared with men undergoing immediate radical prostatectomy (RP) to evaluate what is potentially lost in terms of cancer control, if a patient trials AS and transitions to treatment.

METHODS

We reviewed the Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC) registry for men with GG1 PC undergoing RP from April 2012 to July 2018. Men were classified into groups based on time from diagnosis to RP: immediate (surgery within 1 year of diagnosis) and delayed RP (surgery >1 year after initiation of AS). Time to secondary treatment was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared using the log-rank test. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was fit to assess the association between timing of RP and use of secondary treatments. A chi-squared test was used to assess the association between delayed RP and adverse pathology.

RESULTS

We identified 1878 men that underwent an RP during the study period, of which 1489 (79%) underwent immediate RP and 389 (21%) underwent delayed RP. The incidence of adverse pathology was higher in men with delayed versus immediate RP (49% vs. 36%, p < 0.0001, respectively). However, we noted only a small absolute difference in the estimated 24-month secondary treatment-free probability between men with delayed versus immediate RP (93% and 96%, respectively). On multivariable analysis, delayed RP was associated with increased use of secondary treatments (hazard ratio = 1.94, 95% confidence interval = 1.23-3.06, p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of secondary treatment after RP in men with GG1 PC undergoing immediate or delayed prostatectomy was rare. These data suggest that the burden of treatment is near equivalent in patients who progress to treatment on AS compared with those who underwent immediate RP.

Use of a Cytosponge biomarker panel to prioritise endoscopic Barrett's oesophagus surveillance: a cross-sectional study followed by a real-world prospective pilot

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic surveillance is recommended for patients with Barrett's oesophagus because, although the progression risk is low, endoscopic intervention is highly effective for high-grade dysplasia and cancer. However, repeated endoscopy has associated harms and access has been limited during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to evaluate the role of a non-endoscopic device (Cytosponge) coupled with laboratory biomarkers and clinical factors to prioritise endoscopy for Barrett's oesophagus.

METHODS

We first conducted a retrospective, multicentre, cross-sectional study in patients older than 18 years who were having endoscopic surveillance for Barrett's oesophagus (with intestinal metaplasia confirmed by TFF3 and a minimum Barrett's segment length of 1 cm [circumferential or tongues by the Prague C and M criteria]). All patients had received the Cytosponge and confirmatory endoscopy during the BEST2 (ISRCTN12730505) and BEST3 (ISRCTN68382401) clinical trials, from July 7, 2011, to April 1, 2019 (UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio 9461). Participants were divided into training (n=557) and validation (n=334) cohorts to identify optimal risk groups. The biomarkers evaluated were overexpression of p53, cellular atypia, and 17 clinical demographic variables. Endoscopic biopsy diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or cancer was the primary endpoint. Clinical feasibility of a decision tree for Cytosponge triage was evaluated in a real-world prospective cohort from Aug 27, 2020 (DELTA; ISRCTN91655550; n=223), in response to COVID-19 and the need to provide an alternative to endoscopic surveillance.

FINDINGS

The prevalence of high-grade dysplasia or cancer determined by the current gold standard of endoscopic biopsy was 17% (92 of 557 patients) in the training cohort and 10% (35 of 344) in the validation cohort. From the new biomarker analysis, three risk groups were identified: high risk, defined as atypia or p53 overexpression or both on Cytosponge; moderate risk, defined by the presence of a clinical risk factor (age, sex, and segment length); and low risk, defined as Cytosponge-negative and no clinical risk factors. The risk of high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer in the high-risk group was 52% (68 of 132 patients) in the training cohort and 41% (31 of 75) in the validation cohort, compared with 2% (five of 210) and 1% (two of 185) in the low-risk group, respectively. In the real-world setting, Cytosponge results prospectively identified 39 (17%) of 223 patients as high risk (atypia or p53 overexpression, or both) requiring endoscopy, among whom the positive predictive value was 31% (12 of 39 patients) for high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal cancer and 44% (17 of 39) for any grade of dysplasia.

INTERPRETATION

Cytosponge atypia, p53 overexpression, and clinical risk factors (age, sex, and segment length) could be used to prioritise patients for endoscopy. Further investigation could validate their use in clinical practice and lead to a substantial reduction in endoscopy procedures compared with current surveillance pathways.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Innovate UK.

Observational management of penetrating occult pneumothoraces: Outcomes and risk factors for interval tube thoracostomy placement

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for penetrating occult pneumothoraces (OPTXs) are based on blunt injury. Further understanding of penetrating OPTX pathophysiology is needed. In observational management of penetrating OPTX, we hypothesized that specific clinical and radiographic features may be associated with interval tube thoracostomy (TT) placement. Our aims were to (1) describe OPTX occurrence in penetrating chest injury, (2) determine the rate of interval TT placement in observational management and clinical outcomes compared with immediate TT placement, and (3) describe risk factors associated with failure of observational management.

METHODS

Penetrating OPTX patients presenting to our level 1 trauma center from 2004 to 2019 were reviewed. Occult pneumothorax was defined as a pneumothorax on chest computed tomography but not on chest radiograph. Patient groups included immediate TT placement versus observation. Clinical outcomes compared were TT duration and complications, need for additional thoracic procedures, length of stay (LOS), and disposition. Clinical and radiographic factors associated with interval TT placement were determined by multivariable regression.

RESULTS

Of 629 penetrating pneumothorax patients, 103 (16%) presented with OPTX. Thirty-eight patients underwent immediate TT placement, and 65 were observed. Twelve observed patients (18%) needed interval TT placement. Regardless of initial management strategy, TT placement was associated with longer LOS and more chest radiographs. Chest injury complications and outcomes were similar. Factors associated with increased odds of interval TT placement included Chest Abbreviated Injury Scale score of ≥4 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 7.38 [95% confidence interval, 1.43-37.95), positive pressure ventilation (aOR, 7.74 [1.07-56.06]), concurrent hemothorax (aOR, 6.17 [1.08-35.24]), and retained bullet fragment (aOR, 11.62 [1.40-96.62]) (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The majority of patients with penetrating OPTX can be successfully observed with improved clinical outcomes (LOS, avoidance of TT complications, reduced radiation). Interval TT intervention was not associated with risk for adverse outcomes. In patients undergoing observation, specific clinical factors (chest injury severity, ventilation) and imaging features (hemothorax, retained bullet) are associated with increased odds for interval TT placement, suggesting need for heightened awareness in these patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic, level IV.

An Observational Analysis of a Novel Digital Rectoscope

BACKGROUND

This is an analysis of the first 50 in-human uses of a novel digital rigid sigmoidoscope. The technology provides digital image capture, telemedicine capabilities, improved ergonomics, and the ability to biopsy under pneumorectum while maintaining the low cost of conventional rigid sigmoidoscopy. The primary outcome was adverse events, and the secondary outcome was diagnostic view.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Fifty patients underwent outpatient (n = 25) and surgical rectal assessment (n = 25), with a mean age of 60 years. This included 31 men and 19 women with 12 different clinical use indications. No adverse events were reported, and no defects were reported with the instrumentation. Satisfactory diagnoses were obtained in 48 (96%) of 50 uses, images were captured in 48 (96%) of 50 uses, and biopsies were successfully taken in 13 uses (26%). No adverse events were recorded. Independent reviewers of recorded videos agreed on the quality and diagnostic value of the images with a κ of 0.225 (95% CI, 0.144-0.305) when assessing whether the target pathology was adequately visualized.

IMPACT OF INNOVATION

The improved views afforded by digital rectoscopy facilitated a satisfactory clinical diagnosis in 96% of uses. The device was successfully deployed in the operating room and outpatients irrespective of bowel preparation method, where it has the potential to replace flexible sigmoidoscopy for specific use cases. The technology provides a high-quality image and video that can be securely recorded for documentation and medicolegal purposes with agreement between blinded users despite a lack of standardized training and heterogenous pathology. We perceive significant impact of this technology for the assessment of colorectal anastomoses, the office management of colitis, "watch and wait," and for diagnostic support in rectal cancer diagnosis. The technology has significant potential to facilitate proctoring and training, and it now requires prospective trials to validate its diagnostic accuracy against more costly flexible sigmoidoscopy systems.

Active Surveillance as an Effective Management Option for Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Active surveillance (AS) for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has been accepted worldwide as safe and effective. Despite the growing acceptance of AS in the management of low-risk PTMCs, there are barriers to AS in real clinical settings, and it is important to understand and establish appropriate AS protocol from initial evaluation to follow-up. PTMC management strategies should be decided upon after careful consideration of patient and tumor characteristics by a multidisciplinary team of thyroid cancer specialists. Patients should understand the risks and benefits of AS, participate in decision-making and follow structured monitoring strategies. In this review, we discuss clinical outcomes of AS from previous studies, optimal indications and follow-up strategies for AS, and unresolved questions about AS.

Association of prostate cancer polygenic risk score with number and laterality of tumor cores in active surveillance patients

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer (PCa) is characterized by its tendency to be multifocal. However, few studies have investigated the endogenous factors that explain the multifocal disease. The primary objective of the current study is to test whether inherited PCa risk is associated with multifocal tumors in PCa patients.

METHODS

Subjects in this study were PCa patients of European ancestry undergoing active surveillance at Johns Hopkins Hospital (N = 805) and NorthShore University HealthSystem (N = 432). The inherited risk was measured by genetic risk score (GRS), an odds ratio-weighted and population-standardized polygenic risk score based on known risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. PCa multifocality was indirectly measured by the number and laterality of positive tumor cores from a 12-core systematic biopsy.

RESULTS

In the combined cohort, 35.7% and 66.3% of patients had ≥2 tumor cores at the initial diagnostic biopsy and on at least one subsequent surveillance biopsy, respectively. For tumor laterality, 7.8% and 47.8% of patients had bilateral tumor cores at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively. We found, for the first time, that patients with higher numbers of positive cores at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively, had significantly higher mean GRS values; p = .01 and p = 5.94E-04. Additionally, patients with bilateral tumors at diagnostic and surveillance biopsies, respectively, had significantly higher mean GRS values than those with unilateral tumors; p = .04 and p = .01. In contrast, no association was found between GRS and maximum core length of tumor or tumor grade at diagnostic/surveillance biopsies (all p > .05). Finally, we observed a modest trend that patients with higher GRS quartiles had a higher risk for tumor upgrading on surveillance biopsies. The trend, however, was not statistically significant (p > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

The associations of GRS with two measurements of PCa multifocality (core numbers and laterality) provide novel and consistent evidence for the link between inherited PCa risk and multifocal tumors.

Active Surveillance in Prostate Cancer: Role of Available Biomarkers in Daily Practice

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in men. The diagnosis is currently based on PSA levels, which are associated with overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Moreover, most PCas are localized tumours; hence, many patients with low-/very low-risk PCa could benefit from active surveillance (AS) programs instead of more aggressive, active treatments. Heterogeneity within inclusion criteria and follow-up strategies are the main controversial issues that AS presently faces. Many biomarkers are currently under investigation in this setting; however, none has yet demonstrated enough diagnostic ability as an independent predictor of pathological or clinical progression. This work aims to review the currently available literature on tissue, blood and urine biomarkers validated in clinical practice for the management of AS patients.

Efficacy of parathyroidectomy compared with active surveillance in patients with mild asymptomatic primary hyperparathyroidism: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized-controlled studies

OBJECTIVE

Parathyroidectomy (PTx) has an established benefit in patients with symptomatic primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). However, its efficacy in mild asymptomatic PHPT has not been proven. This study aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the best available evidence from randomized-controlled trials comparing the efficacy of PTx over conservative management (non-PTx) on skeletal outcomes [fractures and bone mineral density (BMD)], nephrolithiasis risk and quality of life (QoL) in patients with mild asymptomatic PHPT.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus and Cochrane databases, from conception to February 23, 2020. Data were extracted from the studies that fulfilled the eligibility criteria and were synthesized quantitatively (fixed or random effects model) as relative risks and percentage mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). I² index was employed for heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Four studies were included in the meta-analysis. There was no difference in fracture risk between PTx and active surveillance. The PTx group demonstrated higher BMD [MD 3.55% (95% CI 1.81, 5.29) in lumbar spine and 3.44% (95% CI 1.39, 5.49) in total hip, without difference in femoral neck and forearm] and lower calcium concentrations (MD - 13.26%, 95% CI - 7.10, - 19.43) compared with the non-PTx group. No difference was observed between groups regarding nephrolithiasis or QoL indices, except for general health (higher in PTx group).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with mild asymptomatic PHPT, PTx increases BMD and reduces serum calcium concentrations. However, its superiority over active surveillance in terms of fracture risk, nephrolithiasis and QoL cannot be supported by current data.

Calf Vein Thrombosis Outcomes Comparing Anticoagulation and Serial Ultrasound Imaging Management Strategies

OBJECTIVE

To compare outcomes among patients with calf deep vein thrombosis (DVT) stratified by management strategy because distal or calf DVT is said to have low rates of propagation, embolization, and recurrence and, as such, guideline recommendations include provisions for serial imaging without treatment.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Consecutive patients with ultrasound-confirmed acute DVT involving the calf veins (January 1, 2016, to August 1, 2018) were identified by scrutinizing the Gonda Vascular Center Ultrasound database. Patients were segregated into 2 categories depending on management strategy; anticoagulation vs serial surveillance ultrasound without anticoagulation. Outcomes including venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence, bleeding, death, and net clinical benefit were compared by treatment strategy.

RESULTS

There were 483 patients with calf DVT identified; 399 were treated with anticoagulation therapy and 84 were managed with surveillance ultrasound. Patients in the surveillance group were older (70.0±13.9 vs 63.0±14.9 years; P<.001) and more likely to have had a recent hospitalization (76.2% [64/84] vs 45.4% [181/399]; P<.001). Common reasons for choosing ultrasound surveillance included guideline prescriptive (58.3% [49/84]), active bleeding (21.4% [18/84]), and recent surgery (17.9% [15/84]). The VTE recurrence composite was lower for patients treated with anticoagulants (7.3% [29/399]) compared with surveillance (14.3% [12/84]; P=.04). The DVT propagation was less frequent in the treated group (2.8% [11/399] vs 8.3% [7/84]; P=.01). There was no difference in bleeding or mortality outcomes by management strategy. Net clinical benefit (VTE recurrence plus major bleeding) favored anticoagulant therapy (9.8% [39/399] vs 20.2% [17/84]; P<.01).

CONCLUSION

Patients with calf DVT treated with anticoagulants had significantly better outcomes compared with those managed by a strategy of serial ultrasound surveillance without increasing bleeding outcomes.

Adoption of Active Surveillance for Very Low-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in the United States: A National Survey

CONTEXT

Active surveillance (AS) of thyroid cancer with serial ultrasounds is a newer management option in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

This work aimed to understand factors associated with the adoption of AS.

METHODS

We surveyed endocrinologists and surgeons in the American Medical Association Masterfile. To estimate adoption, respondents recommended treatment for 2 hypothetical cases appropriate for AS. Established models of guideline implementation guided questionnaire development. Outcome measures included adoption of AS (nonadopters vs adopters, who respectively did not recommend or recommended AS at least once; and partial vs full adopters, who respectively recommended AS for one or both cases).

RESULTS

The 464 respondents (33.3% response) demographically represented specialties that treat thyroid cancer. Nonadopters (45.7%) were significantly (P < .001) less likely than adopters to practice in academic settings, see more than 25 thyroid cancer patients/year, be aware of AS, use applicable guidelines (P = .04), know how to determine whether a patient is appropriate for AS, have resources to perform AS, or be motivated to use AS. Nonadopters were also significantly more likely to be anxious or have reservations about AS, be concerned about poor outcomes, or believe AS places a psychological burden on patients. Among adopters, partial and full adopters were similar except partial adopters were less likely to discuss AS with patients (P = .03) and more likely to be anxious (P = .04), have reservations (P = .03), and have concerns about the psychological burden (P = .009) of AS. Few respondents (3.2%) believed patients were aware of AS.

CONCLUSION

Widespread adoption of AS will require increased patient and physician awareness, interest, and evaluation of outcomes.

Comparative influence of cribriform growth and percent Gleason 4 in prostatic biopsies with Gleason 3+4 cancer

The International Society of Urological Pathology endorses specifying presence of cribriform architecture in Gleason (G)4 prostate cancer because of cribriform's aggressiveness. The relative effect of cribriform presence versus percentage G4 within grade group (GG)2 or 3 was uncertain. 194 men's biopsies with GG2 with or without cribriform (excluding glomeruloid from cribriform) and GG3 without cribriform (controls) from 4 years were reviewed. 173 cases had follow-up including 147 GG2 (15/147 or 10% had cribriform) and 26 GG3. Effects of total tumor specimen involvement, %Gleason 4, and cribriform were stratified into prostatectomy (n = 90), radiotherapy (n = 61), and watching waiting (n = 22) groups. Median follow-up duration was 3.32 years (range 1.90-6.18). Biochemical failures in the above 3 cohorts numbered 9 (9/90; 10%), 5 (5/61; 8%), and 13 (13/22; 59%) respectively. In all groups, (GG2+ GG3, n = 173), the HR for C pattern was 1.64. In GG2, cribriform presence (considering glomeruloid as non-cribriform) conferred a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.51 (p = 0.48). It was 1.38, excluding glomeruloid. In watchful waiting cohort only, presence of C conferred a HR of 2.62 (p = 0.086). All remaining comparisons including percent G4, remained not significant. Thus, only in WW group did cribriform pattern presence approach significance. Detection of differences otherwise was not feasible, probably because: 1) biochemical failure is too rare in GG2 cancer; 2) cribriform frequency was only 10% in GG2 (in current study), less than in higher-grade cancer. 3) Use of biopsy tissue is subject to sampling variation which may undersample cribriform pattern, though biopsy forms the basis of treatment decisions.

Management of prostate cancer radiotherapy during the COVID-19 pandemic: A necessary paradigm change

PURPOSE

To adapt the management of prostate malignancy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In according to the recommendations of the European Association of Urology, we have developed practical additional document on the treatment of prostate cancer.

RESULTS

Low-Risk Group Watchful Waiting should be offered to patients >75 years old, with a limited life expectancy and unfit for local treatment. In Active Surveillance (AS) patients re-biopsy, PSA evaluation and visits should be deferred for up to 6 months, preferring non-invasive multiparametric-MRI. The active treatment should be delayed for 6-12 months. Intermediate-Risk Group AS should be offered in favorable-risk patients. Short-course neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) combined with ultra-hypo-fractionation radiotherapy should be used in unfavorable-risk patients. High-Risk Group Neoadjuvant ADT combined with moderate hypofractionation should be preferred. Whole-pelvis irradiation should be offered to patients with positive lymph nodes in locally advanced setting. ADT should be initiated if PSA doubling time is < 12 months in radio-recurrent patients, as well as in low priority/low volume of metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer. If radiotherapy cannot be delayed, hypo-fractionated regimens should be preferred. In high priority class metastatic disease, treatment with androgen receptor-targeted agents should be offered. When palliative radiotherapy for painful bone metastasis is required, single fraction of 8 Gy should be offered.

CONCLUSIONS

In Covid-19 Era, the challenge should concern a correct management of the oncologic patient, reducing the risk of spreading the virus without worsening tumor prognosis.

Web-Based Ultrasonic Nomogram Predicts Preoperative Central Lymph Node Metastasis of cN0 Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Many clinicians are facing the dilemma about whether they should apply the active surveillance (AS) strategy for managing Clinically Node-negative (cN0) PTMC patients in daily clinical practice. This research plans to construct a dynamic nomogram based on network, connected with ultrasound characteristics and clinical data, to predict the risk of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in cN0 PTMC patients before surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 659 patients with cN0 PTMC who had underwent thyroid surgery and central compartment neck dissection. Patients were randomly (2:1) divided into the development cohort (439 patients) and validation cohort (220 patients). The group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Group Lasso) regression method was used to select the ultrasonic features for CLNM prediction in the development cohort. These features and clinical data were screened by the multivariable regression analysis, and the CLNM prediction model and web-based calculator were established. Receiver operating characteristic, calibration curve, Clinical impact curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to weigh the performance of the prediction model in the validation set.

RESULTS

Multivariable regression analysis showed that age, tumor size, multifocality, the number of contact surface, and real-time elastography were risk factors that could predict CLNM. The area under the curve of the prediction model in the development and validation sets were 0.78 and 0.77, respectively, with good discrimination and calibration. A web-based dynamic calculator was built. DCA proved that the prediction model had excellent net benefits and clinical practicability.

CONCLUSIONS

The web-based dynamic nomogram incorporating US and clinical features was able to forecast the risk of preoperative CLNM in cN0 PTMC patients, and has good predictive performance. As a new observational indicator, NCS can provide additional predictive information.

Comparison of biopsy under-sampling and annual progression using hidden markov models to learn from prostate cancer active surveillance studies

This study aimed to estimate the rates of biopsy undersampling and progression for four prostate cancer (PCa) active surveillance (AS) cohorts within the Movember Foundation's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance (GAP3) consortium. We used a hidden Markov model (HMM) to estimate factors that define PCa dynamics for men on AS including biopsy under-sampling and progression that are implied by longitudinal data in four large cohorts included in the GAP3 database. The HMM was subsequently used as the basis for a simulation model to evaluate the biopsy strategies previously proposed for each of these cohorts. For the four AS cohorts, the estimated annual progression rate was between 6%-13%. The estimated probability of a biopsy successfully sampling undiagnosed non-favorable risk cancer (biopsy sensitivity) was between 71% and 80%. In the simulation study of patients diagnosed with favorable risk cancer at age 50, the mean number of biopsies performed before age 75 was between 4.11 and 12.60, depending on the biopsy strategy. The mean delay time to detection of non-favorable risk cancer was between 0.38 and 2.17 years. Biopsy undersampling and progression varied considerably across study cohorts. There was no single best biopsy protocol that is optimal for all cohorts, because of the variation in biopsy under-sampling error and annual progression rates across cohorts. All strategies demonstrated diminishing benefits from additional biopsies.