Cumulative cancer locations on prostate biopsy and active surveillance outcomes in the MRI era

BACKGROUND

To validate the use of a cumulative cancer locations (CCLO) score, a measurement of tumor volume on biopsy, and to develop a novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-informed CCLO (mCCLO) score to predict clinical outcomes on active surveillance (AS).

METHODS

The CCLO score is a sum of uniquely involved sextants with prostate cancer on diagnostic + confirmatory biopsy. The mCCLO score incorporates MRI findings into the CCLO score. Participants included 1284 individuals enrolled on AS between 1994 and 2022, 343 of whom underwent prostate MRI. The primary outcome was grade reclassification (GR) to grade group ≥2 disease; the secondary outcome was receipt of definitive treatment.

RESULTS

Increasing CCLO and mCCLO risk groups were associated with higher risk of GR and undergoing definitive treatment (both p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, increasing mCCLO score was associated with higher risk of GR and receipt of definitive treatment (hazard ratios [HRs] per 1-unit increase: 1.26 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.41] and 1.21 [95% CI: 1.07-1.36], respectively). The model using mCCLO score to predict GR (c-index: 0.671; 95% CI: 0.621-0.721) performed at least as well as models using the number of cores positive for cancer (0.664 [0.613-0.715]; p = 0.7) and the maximum percentage of cancer in a core (0.641 [0.585-0.696]; p = 0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

The CCLO score is a valid, objective metric to predict GR and receipt of treatment in a large AS cohort. The ability of the MRI-informed mCCLO to predict GR is on par with traditional metrics of tumor volume but is more descriptive and may benefit from greater reproducibility. The mCCLO score can be implemented as a shorthand, informative tool for counseling patients about whether to remain on AS.

Baseline prostate health index risk category and risk category changes during active surveillance predict grade reclassification

BACKGROUND

It is not known whether baseline prostate health index (PHI) at the initiation of active surveillance (AS) or repeated PHI testing during AS is of clinical value after confirmatory biopsy in AS men followed with multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI).

METHODS

We identified 382 AS patients with no greater than Grade Group 1 (GG1) prostate cancer on diagnostic and confirmatory biopsy, at least one mpMRI and PHI test, of which 241 had at least 2 PHI tests. Grade reclassification (GR) was defined as ≥GG2 on surveillance biopsy. PHI risk categories 1 to 4 were as defined by the manufacturer. Associations between baseline PHI risk category or baseline PSA density (PSAD), change in PHI risk categories over time or PSAD changes over time and GR were evaluated with multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for age, Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System score and number of positive cores.

RESULTS

Men with baseline PHI scores in the highest risk categories had lower rates of GR-free survival (log-rank P < 0.001), as did those who increased in PHI risk category or remained in a high PHI risk category during surveillance (log-rank P = 0.032). On multivariable regression, baseline PHI risk category was a predictor of GR (risk category 4 [vs. 1] hazard ratio [HR] 2.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-5.66, P = 0.002, model C-index 0.764, Akaike Information Criterion [AIC] 797), as were PHI risk category changes over time (risk category 4 [vs. 1] HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.76-10.05, P = 0.002, C-index 0.759, AIC 489). Separate models with baseline PSAD and PSAD changes over time yielded C-indices of 0.709 (AIC 809) and 0.733 (AIC 495) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline PHI risk category and PHI changes over time were both independent predictors of GR after confirmatory biopsy, but the added benefit over PSAD seemed modest. However, baseline PHI and PHI risk category changes provided clinically useful risk stratification for time to GR, so further evaluation of PHI's ability to help reduce the frequency of mpMRI and/or surveillance biopsies with more PHI data points over time may be warranted.