Immune impairment thresholds in HIV infection

A mathematical model to study low-dose metronomic scheduling for chemotherapy

Metronomic chemotherapy refers to the frequent administration of chemotherapeutic agents at a lower dose and presents an attractive alternative to conventional chemotherapy with encouraging response rates. However, the schedule of the therapy, including the dosage of the drug, is usually based on empiricism. The confounding effects of tumor-endothelial-immune interactions during metronomic administration of drugs have not yet been explored in detail, resulting in an incomplete assessment of drug dose and frequency evaluations. The present study aimed to gain a mechanistic understanding of different actions of metronomic chemotherapy using a mathematical model. We have established an analytical condition for determining the dosage and frequency of the drug depending on its clearance rate for complete tumor elimination. The model also brings forward the immune-mediated clearance of the tumor during the metronomic administration of the chemotherapeutic agent. The results from the global sensitivity analysis showed an increase in the sensitivity of drug and immune-mediated killing factors toward the tumor population during metronomic scheduling. Our results emphasize metronomic scheduling over the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and define a model-based approach for approximating the optimal schedule of drug administration to eliminate tumors while minimizing harm to the immune cells and the patient's body.

The effect of noise in an HIV infection model with cytotoxic T-lymphocyte impairment

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) interacts with the immune cells within the human body, where the environment is uncertain and noisy. Stochastic models can successfully encapsulate the effect of such a noisy environment compared to their deterministic counterparts. The human immune system is complex but well-coordinated with various immune cells like C D ⁴T cells, dendritic cells, and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) cells, among many others. The CTL can kill the antigenic cells after its recognition. However, the efficacy of CTL in removing the infected C D ⁴T cells is progressively compromised in HIV-infected individuals. This paper considers a noise-induced HIV-immune cell interaction model with immune impairment. A multiplicative white noise is introduced in the infection rate parameter to represent the fluctuations around the average value of the rate parameter as a causative effect of the noise. We analyzed the deterministic and stochastic models and prescribed sufficient conditions for infection eradication and persistence. It is determined under what parametric restrictions the asymptotic solutions of the noise-induced system will be a limiting case of the deterministic solutions. Simulation results revealed that the solutions of the deterministic system either converge to a CTL-dominated interior equilibrium or a CTL-free immunodeficient equilibrium, depending on the initial values of the system. Stochastic analysis divulged that higher noise might be helpful in the infection removal process. The extinction time of infected C D ⁴T cells for some fixed immune impairment gradually decreases with increasing noise intensity and follows the power law.

Backward bifurcation in within-host HIV models

The activation and proliferation of naive CD4 T cells produce helper T cells, and increase the susceptible population in the presence of HIV. This may cause backward bifurcation. To verify this, we construct a simple within-host HIV model that includes the key variables, namely healthy naive CD4 T cells, helper T cells, infected CD4 T cells and virus. When the viral basic reproduction number R₀ is less than unity, we show theoretically and numerically that bistability for R_C<R₀<1 can be caused by a backward bifurcation due to a new susceptible population produced by activation of healthy naive CD4 T cells that become helper T cells. An extended model including the CTL dynamics may also show this backward bifurcation. In the case that the homeostatic source of healthy naive CD4 T cells is large, R_C is approximately the threshold for HIV to persist independent of initial conditions. The backward bifurcation may still occur even when we consider latent infections of naive CD4 T cells. Thus to control the spread of within-host HIV, it may be necessary for treatment to reduce the reproduction number below R_C.

Modeling the immune response to HIV infection

The interplay between immune response and HIV is intensely studied via mathematical modeling, with significant insights but few direct answers. In this short review, we highlight advances and knowledge gaps across different aspects of immunity. In particular, we identify the innate immune response and its role in priming the adaptive response as ripe for modeling. The latter have been the focus of most modeling studies, but we also synthesize key outstanding questions regarding effector mechanisms of cellular immunity and development of broadly neutralizing antibodies. Thus far, most modeling studies aimed to infer general immune mechanisms; we foresee that significant progress will be made next by detailed quantitative fitting of models to data, and prediction of immune responses.

BISTABILITY ANALYSIS OF AN HIV MODEL WITH IMMUNE RESPONSE

Some HIV-infected patients (the so-called post-treatment controllers) can control the virus after cessation of antiretroviral therapy. A small fraction of patients can even naturally maintain undetectable viral load without therapy (they are called elite controllers). The immune response may play an important role in viral control in these patients. In this paper, we analyze a within-host model including immune response to study the virus dynamics in HIV-infected patients. We derived two threshold values for the immune cell proliferation parameter. Below the lower immune proliferation rate, the model has a stable immune-free steady state, which predicts that patients have a high viral load. Above the higher immune proliferation rate, the model has a stable low infected steady state, which indicates that patients are under elite control. Between the two immune thresholds, the model exhibits the dynamic behavior of bistability, which suggests that patients either undergo viral rebound after treatment termination or achieve the post-treatment control. These results may explain the different virus dynamics in HIV-infected patients.

In-host modeling

Understanding the mechanisms governing host-pathogen kinetics is important and can guide human interventions. In-host mathematical models, together with biological data, have been used in this endeavor. In this review, we present basic models used to describe acute and chronic pathogenic infections. We highlight the power of model predictions, the role of drug therapy, and advantage of considering the dynamics of immune responses. We also present the limitations of these models due in part to the trade-off between the complexity of the model and their predictive power, and the challenges a modeler faces in determining the appropriate formulation for a given problem.

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere.

Identifying predictors of time-inhomogeneous viral evolutionary processes

Various factors determine the rate at which mutations are generated and fixed in viral genomes. Viral evolutionary rates may vary over the course of a single persistent infection and can reflect changes in replication rates and selective dynamics. Dedicated statistical inference approaches are required to understand how the complex interplay of these processes shapes the genetic diversity and divergence in viral populations. Although evolutionary models accommodating a high degree of complexity can now be formalized, adequately informing these models by potentially sparse data, and assessing the association of the resulting estimates with external predictors, remains a major challenge. In this article, we present a novel Bayesian evolutionary inference method, which integrates multiple potential predictors and tests their association with variation in the absolute rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions along the evolutionary history. We consider clinical and virological measures as predictors, but also changes in population size trajectories that are simultaneously inferred using coalescent modelling. We demonstrate the potential of our method in an application to within-host HIV-1 sequence data sampled throughout the infection of multiple patients. While analyses of individual patient populations lack statistical power, we detect significant evidence for an abrupt drop in non-synonymous rates in late stage infection and a more gradual increase in synonymous rates over the course of infection in a joint analysis across all patients. The former is predicted by the immune relaxation hypothesis while the latter may be in line with increasing replicative fitness during the asymptomatic stage.

Post-treatment control of HIV infection

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is not a cure. However, recent studies suggest that ART, initiated early during primary infection, may induce post-treatment control (PTC) of HIV infection with HIV RNA maintained at <50 copies per mL. We investigate the hypothesis that ART initiated early during primary infection permits PTC by limiting the size of the latent reservoir, which, if small enough at treatment termination, may allow the adaptive immune response to prevent viral rebound (VR) and control infection. We use a mathematical model of within host HIV dynamics to capture interactions among target cells, productively infected cells, latently infected cells, virus, and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). Analysis of our model reveals a range in CTL response strengths where a patient may show either VR or PTC, depending on the size of the latent reservoir at treatment termination. Below this range, patients will always rebound, whereas above this range, patients are predicted to behave like elite controllers. Using data on latent reservoir sizes in patients treated during primary infection, we also predict population-level VR times for noncontrollers consistent with observations.

Apoptosis in virus infection dynamics models

In this paper, on the basis of the simplified two-dimensional virus infection dynamics model, we propose two extended models that aim at incorporating the influence of activation-induced apoptosis which directly affects the population of uninfected cells. The theoretical analysis shows that increasing apoptosis plays a positive role in control of virus infection. However, after being included the third population of cytotoxic T lymphocytes immune response in HIV-infected patients, it shows that depending on intensity of the apoptosis of healthy cells, the apoptosis can either promote or comfort the long-term evolution of HIV infection. Further, the discrete-time delay of apoptosis is incorporated into the pervious model. Stability switching occurs as the time delay in apoptosis increases. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results and display the different impacts of a delay in apoptosis.

HIV evolution and progression of the infection to AIDS

In this paper, we propose and discuss a possible mechanism, which, via continuous mutations and evolution, eventually enables HIV to break from immune control. In order to investigate this mechanism, we employ a simple mathematical model, which describes the relationship between evolving HIV and the specific CTL response and explicitly takes into consideration the role of CD4(+)T cells (helper T cells) in the activation of the CTL response. Based on the assumption that HIV evolves towards higher replication rates, we quantitatively analyze the dynamical properties of this model. The model exhibits the existence of two thresholds, defined as the immune activation threshold and the immunodeficiency threshold, which are critical for the activation and persistence of the specific cell-mediated immune response: the specific CTL response can be established and is able to effectively control an infection when the virus replication rate is between these two thresholds. If the replication rate is below the immune activation threshold, then the specific immune response cannot be reliably established due to the shortage of antigen-presenting cells. Besides, the specific immune response cannot be established when the virus replication rate is above the immunodeficiency threshold due to low levels of CD4(+)T cells. The latter case implies the collapse of the immune system and beginning of AIDS. The interval between these two thresholds roughly corresponds to the asymptomatic stage of HIV infection. The model shows that the duration of the asymptomatic stage and progression of the disease are very sensitive to variations in the model parameters. In particularly, the rate of production of the naive lymphocytes appears to be crucial.