A clinical decision rule to predict adult patients with traumatic intracranial haemorrhage who do not require intensive care unit admission

Intensive care unit admission criteria: a scoping review

Background

Effectively identifying deteriorated patients is vital to the development and validation of automated systems designed to predict clinical deterioration. Existing outcome measures used for this purpose have significant limitations. Published criteria for admission to high acuity inpatient areas may represent markers of patient deterioration and could inform the development of alternate outcome measures.

Objectives

In this scoping review, we aimed to characterise published criteria for admission of adult inpatients to high acuity inpatient areas including intensive care units. A secondary aim was to identify variables that are extractable from electronic health records (EHRs).

Data sources

Electronic databases PubMed and ProQuest EBook Central were searched to identify papers published from 1999 to date of search. We included publications which described prescriptive criteria for admission of adult inpatients to a clinical area with a higher level of care than a general hospital ward.

Charting methods

Data was extracted from each publication using a standardised data-charting form. Admission criteria characteristics were summarised and cross-tabulated for each criterion by population group.

Results

Five domains were identified: diagnosis-based criteria, clinical parameter criteria, organ-support criteria, organ-monitoring criteria and patient baseline criteria. Six clinical parameter-based criteria and five needs-based criteria were frequently proposed and represent variables extractable from EHRs. Thresholds for objective clinical parameter criteria varied across publications, and by disease subgroup, and universal cut-offs for criteria could not be elucidated.

Conclusions

This study identified multiple criteria which may represent markers of deterioration. Many of the criteria are extractable from the EHR, making them potential candidates for future automated systems. Variability in admission criteria and associated thresholds across the literature suggests clinical deterioration is a heterogeneous phenomenon which may resist being defined as a single entity via a consensus-driven process.

Machine learning model identification and prediction of patients' need for ICU admission: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The emergency department (ED) triage process serves as a crucial first step for patients seeking acute care, This initial assessment holds crucial implications for patient survival and prognosis. In this study, a systematic review of the existing literature was performed to investigate the performance of machine learning (ML) models in recognizing and predicting the need for intensive care among ED patients.

METHODS

Four prominent databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) were searched for relevant literature published up to April 28, 2023. The Prediction model study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was employed to evaluate the risk of bias and feasibility of prediction models.

RESULTS

In ten studies, the main algorithms used were Gradient Boostin, Logistic Regressio, Neural Network, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest. The performance of each model was as follows: Gradient Boosting had a sensitivity range of 0.3 to 0.96, specificity range of 0.6 to 0.99, accuracy range of 0.37 to 0.99, precision range of 0.3 to 0.96, and AUC value range of 0.68 to 0.93; Logistic Regression had a sensitivity range of 0.46 to 0.97, specificity range of 0.28 to 0.99, accuracy range of 0.66 to 0.97, precision range of 0.27 to 0.63, and AUC value range of 0.72 to 0.97; Neural Networks had a sensitivity range of 0.45 to 0.96, specificity range of 0.58 to 0.99, accuracy range of 0.36 to 0.97, precision range of 0.27 to 0.96, and AUC value range of 0.67 to 0.91; Support Vector Machines had a sensitivity range of 0.49 to 0.83, specificity range of 0.94 to 0.98, accuracy range of 0.33 to 0.97, precision range of 0.53 to 0.94, and AUC values were not reported; Random Forests had a sensitivity range of 0.75 to 0.91, specificity range of 0.77 to 0.94, accuracy range of 0.35 to 0.77, precision range of 0.36 to 0.94, and AUC value of 0.83.

CONCLUSION

ML models have demonstrated good performance in identifying and predicting critically ill patients in ED triage. However, because of the limited number of studies on each model, further high-quality prospective research is needed to validate these findings.

Utility and Predictive Value of CHIIDA Score in Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury: A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

The Children's Intracranial Injury Decision Aid (CHIIDA) is a tool designed to stratify children with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). The aim of this study was to assess the utility and predictive value of CHIIDA in the assessment of the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in pediatric patients with mTBI.

METHODS

This prospective observational study included 425 children below 18 years of age admitted to the ICU of a tertiary care hospital with mTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale 13 to 15). The primary outcome was the composite of neurosurgical intervention, intubation for more than 24 hours for TBI, or death from TBI. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were calculated at CHIIDA scores 0 and 2.

RESULTS

Among 425 children with mTBI, 210 (49%) had a CHIIDA score 0, 16 (4%) scored 2 points, and 199 (47%) scored more than 2 points. Thirty-six (8.47%) patients experienced the primary outcome, and there were 3 deaths. A cutoff CHIIDA >0 to admit to ICU had a sensitivity of 97.22% (95% confidence interval [CI], 97.05%-97.39%) and a negative predictive value of 99.54% (95% CI, 99.50%-99.56%). A cutoff of score >2 had a sensitivity of 97.22% (95% CI, 97.05%-97.39%), and negative predictive value of 99.56% (95% CI, 99.54%-99.59%). The post-test probability at cutoff score of 0 and 2 was 16.65% and 16.27%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CHIIDA score does not serve as reliable triage tool for identifying children with TBI who do not require ICU admission.

Predicting Unscheduled Emergency Department Return Visits Among Older Adults: Population-Based Retrospective Study

Background

Unscheduled emergency department return visits (EDRVs) are key indicators for monitoring the quality of emergency medical care. A high return rate implies that the medical services provided by the emergency department (ED) failed to achieve the expected results of accurate diagnosis and effective treatment. Older adults are more susceptible to diseases and comorbidities than younger adults, and they exhibit unique and complex clinical characteristics that increase the difficulty of clinical diagnosis and treatment. Older adults also use more emergency medical resources than people in other age groups. Many studies have reviewed the causes of EDRVs among general ED patients; however, few have focused on older adults, although this is the age group with the highest rate of EDRVs.

Objective

This aim of this study is to establish a model for predicting unscheduled EDRVs within a 72-hour period among patients aged 65 years and older. In addition, we aim to investigate the effects of the influencing factors on their unscheduled EDRVs.

Methods

We used stratified and randomized data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database and applied data mining techniques to construct a prediction model consisting of patient, disease, hospital, and physician characteristics. Records of ED visits by patients aged 65 years and older from 1996 to 2010 in the National Health Insurance Research Database were selected, and the final sample size was 49,252 records.

Results

The decision tree of the prediction model achieved an acceptable overall accuracy of 76.80%. Economic status, chronic illness, and length of stay in the ED were the top three variables influencing unscheduled EDRVs. Those who stayed in the ED overnight or longer on their first visit were less likely to return. This study confirms the results of prior studies, which found that economically underprivileged older adults with chronic illness and comorbidities were more likely to return to the ED.

Conclusions

Medical institutions can use our prediction model as a reference to improve medical management and clinical services by understanding the reasons for 72-hour unscheduled EDRVs in older adult patients. A possible solution is to create mechanisms that incorporate our prediction model and develop a support system with customized medical education for older patients and their family members before discharge. Meanwhile, a reasonably longer length of stay in the ED may help evaluate treatments and guide prognosis for older adult patients, and it may further reduce the rate of their unscheduled EDRVs.

Novel Score for Stratifying Risk of Critical Care Needs in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

To develop a risk prediction score identifying patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) at low risk for critical care.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data of 451 patients with ICH between 2010 and 2018. The sample was randomly divided into a development and a validation cohort. Logistic regression was used to develop a risk score by weighting independent predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) needs according to strength of association. The risk score was tested in the validation cohort and externally validated in a dataset from another institution.

RESULTS

The rate of ICU interventions was 80.3%. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and ICH volume were independent predictors of critical care, resulting in the following point assignments for the Intensive Care Triaging in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage (INTRINSIC) score: SBP 160 to 190 mm Hg (1 point), SBP >190 mm Hg (3 points); GCS 8 to 13 (1 point), GCS <8 (3 points); ICH volume 16 to 40 cm3 (1 point), ICH volume >40 cm3 (2 points); and presence of IVH (1 point), with values ranging between 0 and 9. Among patients with a score of 0 and no ICU needs during their emergency department stay, 93.6% remained without critical care needs. In an external validation cohort of patients with ICH, the INTRINSIC score achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.823 (95% confidence interval 0.782-0.863). A score <2 predicted the absence of critical care needs with 48.5% sensitivity and 88.5% specificity, and a score <3 predicted the absence of critical care needs with 61.7% sensitivity and 83.0% specificity.

CONCLUSION

The INTRINSIC score identifies patients with ICH who are at low risk for critical care interventions.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that the INTRINSIC score identifies patients with ICH at low risk for critical care interventions.

Antithrombotic regimens and need for critical care interventions among patients with subdural hematomas

BACKGROUND

Antithrombotic-associated subdural hematomas (SDHs) are increasingly common, and the possibility of clinical deterioration in otherwise stable antithrombotic-associated SDH patients may prompt unnecessary admissions to intensive care units. It is unknown whether all antithrombotic regimens are equally associated with the need for critical care interventions. We sought to compare the frequency of critical care interventions and poor functional outcomes among three cohorts of noncomatose SDH patients: patients on no antithrombotics, patients on anticoagulants, and patients on antiplatelets alone.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study on all noncomatose SDH patients (Glasgow Coma Scale > 12) presenting to an academic health system in 2018. The three groups of patients were compared in terms of clinical course and functional outcome. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine predictors of need for critical care interventions and poor functional outcome at hospital discharge.

RESULTS

There were 281 eligible patients presenting with SDHs in 2018, with 126 (45%) patients on no antithrombotics, 106 (38%) patients on antiplatelet medications alone, and 49 (17%) patients on anticoagulants. Significant predictors of critical care interventions were coagulopathy (OR 5.1, P < 0.001), presence of contusions (OR 3, P = 0.007), midline shift (OR 3.4, P = 0.002), and maximum SDH thickness (OR 2.4, P = 0.002). Significant predictors of poor functional outcome were age (OR 1.8, P < 0.001), admission Glasgow Coma Scale score (OR 0.3, P < 0.001), dementia history (OR 4.2, P = 0.001), and coagulopathy (OR 3.5, P = 0.02). Isolated antiplatelet use was not associated with either critical care interventions or functional outcome.

CONCLUSION

Isolated antiplatelet use is not a significant predictor of need for critical care interventions or poor functional outcome among SDH patients and should not be used as a criterion for triage to the intensive care unit.

Validation of the "CHIIDA" and application for PICU triage in children with complicated mild traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND

The Children's Intracranial Injury Decision Aid (CHIIDA) was developed to predict which patients with complicated mild traumatic brain injury (cmTBI; GCS ≥13 with depressed skull fracture or intracranial injury) would achieve the composite outcome of neurosurgical intervention, intubation >24 h, or death. The study also explored the CHIIDA as a triage tool to determine need for PICU care. The purpose of this study is to externally validate the CHIIDA and assess its effects on PICU triage.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study (January 2016 to December 2017) to validate the CHIIDA to predict the composite outcome and assess its effects as a PICU triage tool at a level 1 pediatric trauma center.

RESULTS

Of 345 patients with cmTBI, the composite outcome occurred in 16 patients (4.6%). At a cutoff score of 2, the CHIIDA predicted the composite outcome with a sensitivity of 94% (95% CI 67-99%) and specificity of 69% (95% CI 64-74%), similar to the original study. Using the same cutoff score for PICU triage resulted in 48 (71%) more patients admitted to PICU.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, the CHIIDA predicted the composite outcome well. If applied as a triage tool, it would have resulted in increased unnecessary PICU admissions.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, prognosis.

The Association of Trauma Center Transport and Long-term Functional Outcomes in Head-injured Older Adults Transported by Emergency Medical Services

OBJECTIVE

It is unclear whether trauma center care is associated with improved outcomes in older adults with traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to management at nontrauma centers. Our primary objectives were to describe the long-term outcomes of older adults with TBI and to evaluate the association of trauma center transport with long-term functional outcome.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational study at five emergency medical services (EMS) agencies and 11 hospitals representing all 9-1-1 transfers within a county. Older adults (≥55 years) with TBI (defined as closed head injury associated with loss of consciousness and/or amnesia, abnormal Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score, or traumatic intracranial hemorrhage) and transported by EMS from August 2015 to September 2016 were eligible. EMS providers completed standardized data forms and emergency department (ED) and hospital data were abstracted. Functional outcomes were measured using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) at 3- and 6-month intervals by telephone follow-up. Reasons for disabilities were coded as due to head injury, due to illness or injury to other part of body, or due to a mixture of both. To evaluate the association of trauma center transport and functional outcomes, we conducted multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses on multiple imputed data for 1) all patients with TBI and 2) patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage.

RESULTS

We enrolled 350 patients with TBI; the median (Q1, Q3) age was 70 (61, 84) years, 187 (53%) were male, and 91 patients (26%) had traumatic intracranial hemorrhage on initial ED cranial computed tomography (CT) imaging. A total of 257 patients (73%) were transported by EMS to a Level I or II trauma center. Sixty-nine patients (20%) did not complete follow-up at 3 or 6 months. Of the patients with follow-up, 119 of 260 patients (46%) had moderate disability or worse at 6 months, including 55 of 260 patients (21%) who were dead at 6-month follow-up. Death or severe disabilities were more commonly attributed to non-TBI causes while moderate disabilities or better were more commonly due to TBI. On adjusted analysis, an abnormal GCS score, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, and the presence of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage on initial ED cranial imaging were associated with worse GOS-E scores at 6 months. Trauma center transport was not associated with GOS-E scores at 6 months for TBI patients and in patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage on initial ED CT imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

In older adults with TBI, moderate disability or worse is common 6 months after injury. Over one in five of older adults with TBI died by 6 months, usually due to nonhead causes. Patients with TBI or traumatic intracranial hemorrhage did not have improved functional outcomes with initial triage to a trauma center.

Incidence of Delayed Intracranial Hemorrhage in Older Patients After Blunt Head Trauma

Importance

Current guidelines conflict on the management of older adults who have blunt head trauma taking anticoagulant and antiplatelet medications. This is partially due to the limited data comparing patients who are taking these medications with those who are not.

Objective

To investigate the incidence of delayed traumatic intracranial hemorrhage in older adults with head trauma, including those taking anticoagulant and antiplatelet medications.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective observational cohort study included patients 55 years and older who had blunt head trauma and were transported via emergency medical services between August 1, 2015, and September 30, 2016. The setting was a multicenter study conducted at 11 hospitals in northern California. Patients were excluded if they had traumatic intracranial hemorrhage on the initial cranial computed tomographic scan, did not have a cranial computed tomographic scan performed at the initial emergency department visit, refused consent for a follow-up telephone call, or did not have reliable means of follow-up.

Main Outcome and Measure

The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of delayed traumatic intracranial hemorrhage within 14 days of injury.

Results

Among 859 patients enrolled in the study, the median age was 75 years (interquartile range, 64-85 years), and 389 (45.3%) were male. A total of 343 patients (39.9%) were taking an anticoagulant or antiplatelet medication. Three patients (0.3%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.0%) had a delayed traumatic intracranial hemorrhage. Of the 3 patients, 1 of 75 patients (1.3%; 95% CI, 0.0%-7.2%) who were taking warfarin sodium alone and 2 of 516 patients (0.4%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.4%) who were not taking any anticoagulant or antiplatelet medication had a delayed traumatic intracranial hemorrhage. Thirty-nine patients (4.5%; 95% CI, 3.2%-6.2%) were lost to follow-up.

Conclusions and Relevance

Overall, the incidence of delayed intracranial hemorrhage in older adults who have blunt head trauma is low, including patients taking an anticoagulant or antiplatelet medication. These findings suggest that routine observation and serial cranial computed tomography may not be necessary in these patients.

The Critical Care Society of Southern Africa Consensus Statement on ICU Triage and Rationing (ConICTri)

Background

In South Africa (SA), intensive care is faced with the challenge of resource scarcity as well as an increasing demand for intensive care unit (ICU) services. ICU services are expensive, and practitioners in low- to middle-income countries experience daily the consequences of limited resources. Critically limited resources necessitate that rationing and triage (prioritisation) decisions are frequently necessary in SA, particularly in the publicly funded health sector.

Purpose

The purpose of this consensus statement is to examine key questions that arise when considering the status of ICU resources in SA, and more specifically ICU admission, rationing and triage decisions. The accompanying guideline in this issue is intended to guide frontline triage policy and ensure the best utilisation of intensive care in SA, while maintaining a fair distribution of available resources. Fair and efficient triage is important to ensure the ongoing provision of high-quality care to adult patients referred for intensive care.

Recommendations

In response to 14 key questions developed using a modified Delphi technique, 29 recommendations were formulated and graded using an adapted GRADE score. The 14 key questions addressed the status of the provision of ICU services in SA, the degree of resource restriction, the efficiency of resource management, the need for triage, and how triage could be most justly implemented. Important recommendations included the need to formally recognise and accurately quantify the provision of ICU services in SA by national audit; actively seek additional resources from governmental bodies; consider methods to maximise the efficiency of ICU care; evaluate lower level of care alternatives; develop a triage guideline to assist policy-makers and frontline practitioners to implement triage decisions in an efficient and fair way; measure and audit the consequence of triage; and promote research to improve the accuracy and consistency of triage decisions. The consensus document and guideline should be reviewed and revised appropriately within 5 years.

Conclusion

In recognition of the absolute need to limit patient access to ICU because of the lack of sufficient intensive care resources in public hospitals, recommendations and a guideline have been developed to guide policy-making and assist frontline triage decision-making in SA. These documents are not a complete plan for quality practice but rather the beginning of a long-term initiative to engage clinicians, the public and administrators in appropriate triage decision-making, and promote systems that will ultimately maximise the efficient and fair use of available ICU resources.

Pediatric Minor Traumatic Brain Injury With Intracranial Hemorrhage: Identifying Low-Risk Patients Who May Not Benefit From ICU Admission

BACKGROUND

Pediatric patients with any severity of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (tICH) are often admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) for early detection of secondary injury. We hypothesize that there is a subset of these patients with mild injury and tICH for whom ICU care is unnecessary.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify tICH frequency and describe disposition and to identify patients at low risk of inpatient critical care intervention (CCI).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients aged 0 to 17 years with tICH at a single level I trauma center from 2008 to 2013. The CCI included mechanical ventilation, invasive monitoring, blood product transfusion, hyperosmolar therapy, and neurosurgery. Binary recursive partitioning analysis led to a clinical decision instrument classifying patients as low risk for CCI.

RESULTS

Of 296 tICH admissions without prior CCI in the field or emergency department, 29 had an inpatient CCI. The decision instrument classified patients as low risk for CCI when patients had absence of the following: midline shift, depressed skull fracture, unwitnessed/unknown mechanism, and other nonextremity injuries. This clinical decision instrument produced a high likelihood of excluding patients with CCI (sensitivity, 96.6%; 95% confidence interval, 82.2%-99.9%) from the low-risk group, with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.056 (95% confidence interval, -0.053-0.166). The decision instrument misclassified 1 patient with CCI into the low-risk group, but would have impacted disposition of 164 pediatric ICU admissions through 5 years (55% of the sample).

CONCLUSIONS

A subset of low-risk patients may not require ICU admission. The proposed decision rule identified low-risk children with tICH who may be observable outside an ICU, although this rule requires external validation before implementation.

The Risk of Deterioration in GCS13-15 Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury Identified by Computed Tomography Imaging: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The optimal management of mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients with injuries identified by computed tomography (CT) brain scan is unclear. Some guidelines recommend hospital admission for an observation period of at least 24 h. Others argue that selected lower-risk patients can be discharged from the Emergency Department (ED). The objective of our review and meta-analysis was to estimate the risk of death, neurosurgical intervention, and clinical deterioration in mild TBI patients with injuries identified by CT brain scan, and assess which patient factors affect the risk of these outcomes. A systematic review and meta-analysis adhering to PRISMA standards of protocol and reporting were conducted. Study selection was performed by two independent reviewers. Meta-analysis using a random effects model was undertaken to estimate pooled risks for: clinical deterioration, neurosurgical intervention, and death. Meta-regression was used to explore between-study variation in outcome estimates using study population characteristics. Forty-nine primary studies and five reviews were identified that met the inclusion criteria. The estimated pooled risk for the outcomes of interest were: clinical deterioration 11.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.7%-15.8%), neurosurgical intervention 3.5% (95% CI: 2.2%-4.9%), and death 1.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-2.2%). Twenty-one studies presented within-study estimates of the effect of patient factors. Meta-regression of study characteristics and pooling of within-study estimates of risk factor effect found the following factors significantly affected the risk for adverse outcomes: age, initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), type of injury, and anti-coagulation. The generalizability of many studies was limited due to population selection. Mild TBI patients with injuries identified by CT brain scan have a small but clinically important risk for serious adverse outcomes. This review has identified several prognostic factors; research is needed to derive and validate a usable clinical decision rule so that low-risk patients can be safely discharged from the ED.

The Incidence of Traumatic Intracranial Hemorrhage in Head-Injured Older Adults Transported by EMS with and without Anticoagulant or Antiplatelet Use

Field triage guidelines recommend transport of head-injured patients on anticoagulants or antiplatelets to a higher-level trauma center based on studies suggesting a high incidence of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (tICH). We compared the incidence of tICH in older adults transported by emergency medical services (EMS) with and without anticoagulation or antiplatelet use and evaluated the accuracies of different sets of field triage criteria to identify tICH. This was a prospective, observational study at five EMS agencies and 11 hospitals. Older adults (≥55 years) with head trauma and transported by EMS from August 2015 to September 2016 were eligible. EMS providers completed standardized data forms and patients were followed through emergency department (ED) or hospital discharge. We enrolled 1304 patients; 1147 (88%) received a cranial computed tomography (CT) scan and were eligible for analysis. Four hundred thirty-four (33%) patients had anticoagulant or antiplatelet use and 112 (10%) had tICH. The incidence of tICH in patients with (11%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8%-14%) and without (9%, 95% CI 7%-11%) anticoagulant or antiplatelet use was similar. Anticoagulant or antiplatelet use was not predictive of tICH on adjusted analysis. Steps 1-3 criteria alone were not sensitive in identifying tICH (27%), whereas the addition of anticoagulant or antiplatelet criterion improved sensitivity (63%). Other derived sets of triage criteria were highly sensitive (>98%) but poorly specific (<11%). The incidence of tICH was similar between patients with and without anticoagulant or antiplatelet use. Use of anticoagulant or antiplatelet medications was not a risk factor for tICH. We were unable to identify a set of triage criteria that was accurate for trauma center need.

A step-down unit transfer protocol for low-risk aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Patients who have experienced subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) often receive care in the setting of the ICU. However, SAH patients may not all require extended ICU admission. The authors established a protocol on January 1, 2015, to transfer select, low-risk patients to a step-down unit (SDU) to streamline care for SAH patients. This study describes the results of the implemented protocol.

METHODS

In this retrospective chart review, patients presenting with SAH between January 2011 and September 2016 were reviewed for inclusion. The control group consisted of patients admitted prior to establishment of the SDU transfer protocol, while the intervention group consisted of patients admitted afterward.

RESULTS

Of the patients in the intervention group, 79.2% (57/72) were transferred to the SDU during their admission. Of these transferred patients, 29.8% (17/57) required return to the neurosurgical ICU (NSICU). There were no instances of morbidity or mortality directly related to care in the SDU. Patients in the intervention group had a mean reduced NSICU length of stay, by 1.95 days, which trended toward significance, and a longer average hospitalization, by 2.7 days, which also trended toward significance. In-hospital mortality and 90-day readmission rate were not statistically different between the groups. In addition, early transfer timing prior to 7 days was associated with neither a higher return rate to the NSICU nor higher 90-day readmission rate.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective study, the authors demonstrated that the transfer protocol was safe, feasible, and effective in reducing the ICU length of stay and was independent of transfer timing. Confirmation of these results is needed in a large, multicenter study.

Medical necessity of routine admission of children with mild traumatic brain injury to the intensive care unit

OBJECTIVE Approximately 475,000 children are treated for traumatic brain injury (TBI) in the US each year; most are classified as mild TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] Score 13-15). Patients with positive findings on head CT, defined as either intracranial hemorrhage or skull fracture, regardless of severity, are often transferred to tertiary care centers for intensive care unit (ICU) monitoring. This practice creates a significant burden on the health care system. The purpose of this investigation was to derive a clinical decision rule (CDR) to determine which children can safely avoid ICU care. METHODS The authors retrospectively reviewed patients with mild TBI who were ≤ 16 years old and who presented to a Level 1 trauma center between 2008 and 2013. Data were abstracted from institutional TBI and trauma registries. Independent covariates included age, GCS score, pupillary response, CT characteristics, and Injury Severity Score. A composite outcome measure, ICU-level care, was defined as cardiopulmonary instability, transfusion, intubation, placement of intracranial pressure monitor or other invasive monitoring, and/or need for surgical intervention. Stepwise logistic regression defined significant predictors for model inclusion with p < 0.10. The authors derived the CDR with binary recursive partitioning (using a misclassification cost of 20:1). RESULTS A total of 284 patients with mild TBI were included in the analysis; 40 (14.1%) had ICU-level care. The CDR consisted of 5 final predictor variables: midline shift > 5 mm, intraventricular hemorrhage, nonisolated head injury, postresuscitation GCS score of < 15, and cisterns absent. The CDR correctly identified 37 of 40 patients requiring ICU-level care (sensitivity 92.5%; 95% CI 78.5-98.0) and 154 of 244 patients who did not require an ICU-level intervention (specificity 63.1%; 95% CI 56.7-69.1). This results in a negative predictive value of 98.1% (95% CI 94.1-99.5). CONCLUSIONS The authors derived a clinical tool that defines a subset of pediatric patients with mild TBI at low risk for ICU-level care. Although prospective evaluation is needed, the potential for improved resource allocation is significant.

Out-of-Hospital Triage of Older Adults With Head Injury: A Retrospective Study of the Effect of Adding "Anticoagulation or Antiplatelet Medication Use" as a Criterion

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Field triage guidelines recommend that emergency medical services (EMS) providers consider transport of head-injured older adults with anticoagulation use to trauma centers. However, the triage patterns and the incidence of intracranial hemorrhage or neurosurgery in these patients are unknown. Our objective is to describe the characteristics and outcomes of older adults with head trauma who are transported by EMS, particularly for patients who do not meet physiologic, anatomic, or mechanism-of-injury (steps 1 to 3) field triage criteria but are receiving anticoagulant or antiplatelet medications.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study at 5 EMS agencies and 11 hospitals (4 trauma centers, 7 nontrauma centers). Patients aged 55 years or older with head trauma who were transported by EMS were included. The primary outcome was the presence of intracranial hemorrhage. The secondary outcome was a composite measure of inhospital death or neurosurgery.

RESULTS

Of the 2,110 patients included, 131 (6%) had intracranial hemorrhage and 41 (2%) had inhospital death or neurosurgery. There were 162 patients (8%) with steps 1 to 3 criteria. Of the remaining 1,948 patients without steps 1 to 3 criteria, 566 (29%) had anticoagulant or antiplatelet use. Of these patients, 52 (9%) had traumatic intracranial hemorrhage and 15 (3%) died or had neurosurgery. The sensitivity (adjusted for clustering by EMS agency) of steps 1 to 3 criteria was 19.8% (26/131; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.5% to 51.2%) for identifying traumatic intracranial hemorrhage and 34.1% (14/41; 95% CI 9.9% to 70.1%) for death or neurosurgery. The additional criterion of anticoagulant or antiplatelet use improved the sensitivity for intracranial hemorrhage (78/131; 59.5%; 95% CI 42.9% to 74.2%) and death or neurosurgery (29/41; 70.7%; 95% CI 61.0% to 78.9%).

CONCLUSION

Relatively few patients met steps 1 to 3 triage criteria. For individuals who did not have steps 1 to 3 criteria, nearly 30% had anticoagulant or antiplatelet use. A relatively high proportion of these patients had intracranial hemorrhage, but a much smaller proportion died or had neurosurgery during hospitalization. Use of steps 1 to 3 triage criteria alone is not sufficient in identifying intracranial hemorrhage and death or neurosurgery in this patient population. The additional criterion of anticoagulant or antiplatelet use improves the sensitivity of the instrument, with only a modest decrease in specificity.

Factors associated with adverse outcomes in patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage and Glasgow Coma Scale of 15

Patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) with associated intracranial injury, or complicated mTBI, are at risk of deterioration. Clinical management differs within and between institutions. We conducted an exploratory analysis to determine which of these patients are unlikely to have an adverse outcome and may be future targets for less resource intensive care. This single center retrospective cohort study included patients presenting to the ED with blunt complicated mTBI between January 2001 and December 2010. Patients with a Glasgow coma score (GCS) of 15, an initial head CT with a traumatic abnormality, and a repeat head CT within 24h were eligible. We defined the composite adverse outcome as death within two weeks, neurosurgical procedure within two weeks, hospitalization >48h, and worsened second head CT. Classification and Regression Tree methodology was used to identify factors associated with adverse outcomes. Of 1011 patients with two head CTs performed in a 24-h period, 240 (24%) had complicated mTBI and GCS 15. Of these, 56 (23%) experienced the composite adverse outcome defined above. Age, headache, and subarachnoid hemorrhage, correctly classified 93% of patients with an adverse outcome. No instance of death or neurosurgical procedure was missed. Our analysis highlighted three factors associated with adverse outcomes in persons who have complicated mTBI but a GCS of 15. Absence of these risk factors suggests low risk of adverse outcomes, and may suggest that a patient is safe for discharge home. Additional research is required before utilizing these findings in clinical practice.

Utility of clinical decision rule for intensive care unit admission in patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Recent literature suggests the majority of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage does not require intervention. One recently described clinical decision rule was sensitive in identifying patients requiring critical care interventions in an urban setting. We sought to validate its effectiveness in our predominately rural setting.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted of adult patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage. The rule, based on age, initial Glasgow coma scale score, and presence of a non-isolated head injury, was applied to externally validate the previously reported findings.

RESULTS

In our population, the rule displayed a sensitivity of 0.923, specificity of 0.251, positive predictive value of 0.393, and negative predictive value of 0.862. The area under curve was 0.587. While our population has a similar adjusted head injury severity score as that from which the rule was developed, significant differences in age and intracranial hemorrhage pattern were noted.

CONCLUSIONS

The rule displayed decreased performance in our population, most likely secondary to differences in age and intracranial hemorrhage patterns. Prospective evaluation and cost-savings analysis are appropriate subsequent steps for the rule.

The differential associations of preexisting conditions with trauma-related outcomes in the presence of competing risks

INTRODUCTION

Pre-existing chronic conditions (PECs) pose a unique problem for the care of aging trauma populations. However, the relationships between specific conditions and outcomes after injury are relatively unknown. Evaluation of trauma patients is further complicated by their discharge to care facilities, where mortality risk remains high. Traditional approaches for evaluating in-hospital mortality do not account for the discharge of at-risk patients, which constitutes a competing risk event to death. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between 40 PECs and two clinical outcomes in the context of competing risks among older trauma patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study evaluated blunt-injured patients aged 55 years and older admitted to a level I trauma centre in 2006-2012. Outcomes were hospital length of stay (HLOS) and in-hospital mortality. Survivors were classified as discharges home or discharges to care facilities. Competing risks regression was used to evaluate each PEC with in-hospital mortality, accounting for discharges to care facilities as competing events. Competing risk estimates were compared to Cox model estimates, for which all survivors to discharge were non-events. Analyses were stratified using injury-based mortality risk at a 50% cutpoint (high versus low).

RESULTS

Among 4653 patients, 176 died in-hospital, 3059 were discharged home, and 1418 were discharged to a care facility. Most patients (98%) were classified with a low mortality risk. Only haemophilia and coagulopathy were consistently associated with longer HLOS. In the low-risk subgroup, in-hospital mortality was most strongly associated with liver diseases, haemophilia, and coagulopathy. In the high-risk group, Parkinson's disease, depression, and cancers showed the strongest associations. Accounting for the competing event altered estimates for 12 of 19 significant conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess mortality among patients expected to survive their injuries may be attributable to complications resulting from PECs. Discharges to care facilities constitute a bias in the evaluation of in-hospital mortality and should be considered for the accurate calculation of risk. In conjunction with injury measures, consideration of PECs provides physicians with a foundation to plan clinical decisions in older trauma patients.

Patient Admission Preferences and Perceptions

INTRODUCTION

Understanding patient perceptions and preferences of hospital care is important to improve patients' hospitalization experiences and satisfaction. The objective of this study was to investigate patient preferences and perceptions of hospital care, specifically differences between intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital floor admissions.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional survey of emergency department (ED) patients who were presented with a hypothetical scenario of a patient with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI). We surveyed their preferences and perceptions of hospital care related to this scenario. A closed-ended questionnaire provided quantitative data on patient preferences and perceptions of hospital care and an open-ended questionnaire evaluated factors that may not have been captured with the closed-ended questionnaire.

RESULTS

Out of 302 study patients, the ability for family and friends to visit (83%), nurse availability (80%), and physician availability (79%) were the factors most commonly rated "very important," while the cost of hospitalization (62%) and length of hospitalization (59%) were the factors least commonly rated "very important." When asked to choose between the ICU and the floor if they were the patient in the scenario, 33 patients (10.9%) choose the ICU, 133 chose the floor (44.0%), and 136 (45.0%) had no preference.

CONCLUSION

Based on a hypothetical scenario of mild TBI, the majority of patients preferred admission to the floor or had no preference compared to admission to the ICU. Humanistic factors such as the availability of doctors and nurses and the ability to interact with family appear to have a greater priority than systematic factors of hospitalization, such as length and cost of hospitalization or length of time in the ED waiting for an in-patient bed.

Red Blood Cell Transfusion in Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Our objectives were to evaluate the frequency of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) as well as potential determinants and outcomes associated with RBC transfusion in this population. We conducted a systematic review of cohort studies and randomized trials of patients with TBI. We searched Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and BIOSIS databases from their inception up to April 2015. We selected studies of adult patients with acute TBI reporting data on RBC transfusions. Cumulative incidences of transfusion were pooled using random-effect models with a DerSimonian approach. To evaluate the association between RBC transfusion and potential determinants or clinical outcomes, we pooled risk ratios or mean differences with random-effect models and the Mantel-Haenszel method. We identified 24 eligible studies (17414 patients). After pooling data from 23 studies (7524 patients), approximately 36% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28-44; I(2) = 98%) of patients received RBC transfusion at some point during their hospital stay. Hemoglobin thresholds for transfusion were rarely available (reported in 9 studies) and varied from 6 to 10 g/dL. Glasgow Coma Scale scores at admission were lower in patients who were transfused than those who were not (3 cohort studies; 1371 patients; mean difference of 1.38 points [95% CI, 0.86-1.89]; I(2) = 12%). Mortality was not significantly different among transfused and nontransfused patients in univariate and multivariate meta-analyses. Hospital length of stay was longer among patients receiving RBC transfusion compared to those who did not (3 studies; n = 455; mean difference, 9.58 days [95% CI, 3.94-15.22]; I(2) = 74%). Results should be considered cautiously due to the high heterogeneity and high risk of confounding from the observational nature of included studies. Red blood cell transfusion is frequent in patients with TBI, and transfusion practices varied widely between studies. Current published data highlight the lack of clinical evidence guiding transfusion strategies in TBI.

Prediction of neurosurgical intervention after mild traumatic brain injury using the national trauma data bank

Introduction

Patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) as defined by an admission Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 14–15 often do not require neurosurgical interventions, but which patients will go on to require neurosurgical care has been difficult to predict. We hypothesized that injury patterns would be associated with need for eventual neurosurgical intervention in mild TBI.

Methods

The National Trauma Databank (2007–2012) was queried for patients with blunt injury and a diagnosis of TBI with an emergency department GCS of 14–15. Patients were stratified by age and injury type. Multiple logistic regression for neurosurgical intervention was run with patient demographics, physiologic variables, and injury diagnoses as dependent variables.

Results

The study included 50,496 patients, with an overall 8.8 % rate of neurosurgical intervention. Neurosurgical intervention rates varied markedly according to injury type, and were only correlated with age for patients with epidural and subdural hemorrhage. In multiple logistic regression, TBI diagnoses were predictive of need for neurosurgical interventions; moreover, after controlling for injury type and severity score, age was not significantly associated with requiring neurosurgical intervention.

Conclusions

We found that in mild TBI, injury pattern is associated with eventual need for neurosurgical intervention. Patients with cerebral contusion or subarachnoid hemorrhage are much less likely to require neurosurgical intervention, and the effects of age are not significant after controlling for other patient factors. Prospective studies should validate this finding so that treatment guidelines can be updated to better allocate ICU resources.

Long-term neurological outcomes in adults with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage admitted to ICU versus floor

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to compare long-term neurological outcomes in low-risk patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (tICH) admitted to the ICU (intensive care unit) versus patients admitted to the floor.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at a Level 1 trauma center from October 1, 2008, to February 1, 2013. We defined low-risk patients as age less than 65 years, isolated head injury, normal admission mental status, and no shift or swelling on initial head CT (computed tomography). Clinical data were abstracted from a trauma registry and linked to a brain injury database. We compared the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) score at six months between patients admitted to the ICU and patients admitted to the floor. We did a risk-adjusted analysis of the influence of floor admission on a normal GOS-E.

RESULTS

We identified 151 patients; 45 (30%) were admitted to the floor and 106 (70%) to the ICU. Twenty-three (51%; 95% CI [36-66%]) patients admitted to the floor and 55 (52%; 95% CI [42-62%]) patients admitted to the ICU had a normal GOS-E. On adjusted analysis; the odds ratio for floor admission was 0.77 (95% CI [0.36-1.64]) for a normal GOS-E at six months.

CONCLUSION

Long-term neurological outcomes in low-risk patients with tICH were not markedly different between patients admitted to the ICU and those admitted to the floor. However, we were unable to demonstrate non-inferiority on adjusted analysis. Future work aimed at a larger, prospective cohort may better evaluate the relative impacts of admission type on outcomes.

ED disposition of the Glasgow Coma Scale 13 to 15 traumatic brain injury patient: analysis of the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in TBI study

OBJECTIVE

Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients are frequently admitted to high levels of care despite limited evidence suggesting benefit. Such decisions may contribute to the significant cost of caring for mTBI patients. Understanding the factors that drive disposition decision making and how disposition is associated with outcomes is necessary for developing an evidence-base supporting disposition decisions. We evaluated factors associated with emergency department triage of mTBI patients to 1 of 3 levels of care: home, inpatient floor, or intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

This multicenter, prospective, cohort study included patients with isolated head trauma, a cranial computed tomography as part of routine care, and a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 13 to 15. Data analysis was performed using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of the 304 patients included, 167 (55%) were discharged home, 76 (25%) were admitted to the inpatient floor, and 61 (20%) were admitted to the ICU. In the multivariable model, admission to the ICU, compared with floor admission, varied by study site, odds ratio (OR) 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.57); antiplatelet/anticoagulation therapy, OR 7.46 (95% CI, 1.79-31.13); skull fracture, OR 7.60 (95% CI, 2.44-23.73); and lower GCS, OR 2.36 (95% CI, 1.05-5.30). No difference in outcome was observed between the 3 levels of care.

CONCLUSION

Clinical characteristics and local practice patterns contribute to mTBI disposition decisions. Level of care was not associated with outcomes. Intracranial hemorrhage, GCS 13 to 14, skull fracture, and current antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy influenced disposition decisions.

Predictors of critical care needs after IV thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Intravenous (IV) tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) is the only Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved treatment for acute ischemic stroke. Post tPA patients are typically monitored in an intensive care unit (ICU) for at least 24 hours. However, rigorous evidence to support this practice is lacking. This study evaluates factors that predict ICU needs after IV thrombolysis.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was performed for 153 patients who received intravenous tPA for acute ischemic stroke. Data on stroke risk factors, physiologic parameters on presentation, and stroke severity were collected. The timing and nature of an intensive care intervention, if needed, was recorded. Using multivariable logistic regression, we determined factors associated with requiring ICU care.

RESULTS

African American race (Odds Ratio [OR] 8.05, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 2.65-24.48), systolic blood pressure, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (OR 1.20 per point increase, 95% CI 1.09-1.31) were predictors of utilization of ICU resources. Patients with an NIHSS≥10 had a 7.7 times higher risk of requiring ICU resources compared to patients who presented with an NIHSS<10 (p<0.001). Most patients with ICU needs developed them prior to the end of tPA infusion (81.0%, 95% CI 68.8-93.1). Only 7% of patients without ICU needs by the end of the tPA infusion went on to require ICU care later on. These patients were more likely to have diabetes mellitus and had significantly higher NIHSS compared to patients without further ICU needs (mean NIHSS 17.3, 95% CI 11.5-22.9 vs. 9.2, 95% CI 7.7-9.6).

CONCLUSION

Race, NIHSS, and systolic blood pressure predict ICU needs following tPA for acute ischemic stroke. We propose that patients without ICU needs by the end of the tPA infusion might be safely monitored in a non-ICU setting if NIHSS at presentation is low.

Derivation of a clinical decision instrument to identify adult patients with mild traumatic intracranial hemorrhage at low risk for requiring ICU admission

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to derive a clinical decision instrument with a sensitivity of at least 95% (with upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals [CIs] within a 5% range) to identify adult emergency department patients with mild traumatic intracranial hemorrhage who are at low risk for requiring critical care resources during hospitalization and thus may not need admission to the ICU.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational study of adult patients with mild traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (initial Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score 13 to 15, with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage) presenting to a Level I trauma center from July 2009 to February 2013. The need for ICU admission was defined as the presence of an acute critical care intervention (intubation, neurosurgical intervention, blood product transfusion, vasopressor or inotrope administration, invasive monitoring for hemodynamic instability, urgent treatment for arrhythmia or cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and therapeutic angiography). We derived the clinical decision instrument with binary recursive partitioning (with a misclassification cost of 20 to 1). The accuracy of the decision instrument was compared with the treating physician's (emergency medicine faculty) clinical impression.

RESULTS

A total of 600 patients with mild traumatic intracranial hemorrhage were enrolled; 116 patients (19%) had a critical care intervention. The derived instrument consisted of 4 predictor variables: admission GCS score less than 15, nonisolated head injury, aged 65 years or older, and evidence of swelling or shift on initial cranial computed tomography scan. The decision instrument identified 114 of 116 patients requiring an acute critical care intervention (sensitivity 98.3%; 95% CI 93.9% to 99.5%) if at least 1 variable was present and 192 of 484 patients who did not have an acute critical care intervention (specificity 39.7%; 95% CI 35.4% to 44.1%) if no variables were present. Physician clinical impression was slightly less sensitive (90.1%; 95% CI 83.1% to 94.4%) but overall similar to the clinical decision instrument.

CONCLUSION

We derived a clinical decision instrument that identifies a subset of patients with mild traumatic intracranial hemorrhage who are at low risk for acute critical care intervention and thus may not require ICU admission. Physician clinical impression had test characteristics similar to those of the decision instrument. Because the results are based on single-center data without a validation cohort, external validation is required.

Variability of ICU use in adult patients with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Patients with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage are frequently admitted to the ICU, although many never require critical care interventions. To describe ICU resource use in minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage, we assess (1) the variability of ICU use in a cohort of patients with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage across multiple trauma centers, and (2) the proportion of adult patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage who are admitted to the ICU and never receive a critical care intervention during hospitalization. In addition, we evaluate the association between ICU admission and key independent variables.

METHODS

A structured, historical cohort study of adult patients (aged 18 years and older) with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage was conducted within a consortium of 8 Level I trauma centers in the western United States from January 2005 to June 2010. The study population included patients with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage, defined as an emergency department (ED) Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 15 (normal mental status) and an Injury Severity Score less than 16 (no other major organ injury). The primary outcome measure was initial ICU admission. The secondary outcome measure was a critical care intervention during hospitalization. Critical care interventions included mechanical ventilation, neurosurgical intervention, transfusion of blood products, vasopressor or inotrope administration, and invasive hemodynamic monitoring. ED disposition and the proportion of ICU patients not receiving a critical care intervention were compared across sites with descriptive statistics. The association between ICU admission and predetermined independent variables was analyzed with multivariable regression.

RESULTS

Among 11,240 adult patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage, 1,412 (13%) had minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage and complete ED disposition data (mean age 48 years; SD 20 years). ICU use within this cohort across sites ranged from 50% to 97%. Overall, 847 of 888 patients (95%) with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage who were admitted to the ICU did not receive a critical care intervention during hospitalization (range between sites 80% to 100%). Three of 524 (0.6%) patients discharged home or admitted to the observation unit or ward received a critical care intervention. After controlling for severity of injury (age, blood pressure, and Injury Severity Score), study site was independently associated with ICU admission (odds ratios ranged from 1.5 to 30; overall effect P<.001).

CONCLUSION

Across a consortium of trauma centers in the western United States, there was wide variability in ICU use within a cohort of patients with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage. Moreover, a large proportion of patients admitted to the ICU never required a critical care intervention, indicating the potential to improve use of critical care resources in patients with minor traumatic intracranial hemorrhage.