A tree ensemble-based two-stage model for advanced-stage colorectal cancer survival prediction

Impact of artificial intelligence in the management of esophageal, gastric and colorectal malignancies

The incidence of gastrointestinal malignancies has increased over the past decade at an alarming rate. Colorectal and gastric cancers are the third and fifth most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide but are cited as the second and third leading causes of mortality. Early institution of appropriate therapy from timely diagnosis can optimize patient outcomes. Artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic tools can assist in expeditious diagnosis, treatment planning/response prediction, and post-surgical prognostication. AI can intercept neoplastic lesions in their primordial stages, accurately flag suspicious and/or inconspicuous lesions with greater accuracy on radiologic, histopathological, and/or endoscopic analyses, and eliminate over-dependence on clinicians. AI-based models have shown to be on par, and sometimes even outperformed experienced gastroenterologists and radiologists. Convolutional neural networks (state-of-the-art deep learning models) are powerful computational models, invaluable to the field of precision oncology. These models not only reliably classify images, but also accurately predict response to chemotherapy, tumor recurrence, metastasis, and survival rates post-treatment. In this systematic review, we analyze the available evidence about the diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic utility of artificial intelligence in gastrointestinal oncology.

A weighted distance-based dynamic ensemble regression framework for gastric cancer survival time prediction

Accurate prediction of gastric cancer patient survival time is essential for clinical decision-making. However, unified static models lack specificity and flexibility in predictions owing to the varying survival outcomes among gastric cancer patients. We address these problems by using an ensemble learning approach and adaptively assigning greater weights to similar patients to make more targeted predictions when predicting an individual's survival time. We treat these problems as regression problems and introduce a weighted dynamic ensemble regression framework. To better identify similar patients, we devise a method to measure patient similarity, considering the diverse impacts of features. Subsequently, we use this measure to design both a weighted K-means clustering method and a fuzzy K-means sampling technique to group patients and train corresponding base regressors. To achieve more targeted predictions, we calculate the weight of each base regressor based on the similarity between the patient to be predicted and the patient clusters, culminating in the integration of the results. The model is validated on a dataset of 7791 patients, outperforming other models in terms of three evaluation metrics, namely, the root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The weighted dynamic ensemble regression strategy can improve the baseline model by 1.75%, 2.12%, and 13.45% in terms of the three respective metrics while also mitigating the imbalanced survival time distribution issue. This enhanced performance has been statistically validated, even when tested on six public datasets with different sizes. By considering feature variations, patients with distinct survival profiles can be effectively differentiated, and the model predictive performance can be enhanced. The results generated by our proposed model can be invaluable in guiding decisions related to treatment plans and resource allocation. Furthermore, the model has the potential for broader applications in prognosis for other types of cancers or similar regression problems in various domains.

Predicting Colorectal Cancer Survival Using Time-to-Event Machine Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) methods have shown great potential in predicting colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. However, the ML models introduced thus far have mainly focused on binary outcomes and have not considered the time-to-event nature of this type of modeling.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the performance of ML approaches for modeling time-to-event survival data and develop transparent models for predicting CRC-specific survival.

METHODS

The data set used in this retrospective cohort study contains information on patients who were newly diagnosed with CRC between December 28, 2012, and December 27, 2019, at West China Hospital, Sichuan University. We assessed the performance of 6 representative ML models, including random survival forest (RSF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), DeepSurv, DeepHit, neural net-extended time-dependent Cox (or Cox-Time), and neural multitask logistic regression (N-MTLR) in predicting CRC-specific survival. Multiple imputation by chained equations method was applied to handle missing values in variables. Multivariable analysis and clinical experience were used to select significant features associated with CRC survival. Model performance was evaluated in stratified 5-fold cross-validation repeated 5 times by using the time-dependent concordance index, integrated Brier score, calibration curves, and decision curves. The SHapley Additive exPlanations method was applied to calculate feature importance.

RESULTS

A total of 2157 patients with CRC were included in this study. Among the 6 time-to-event ML models, the DeepHit model exhibited the best discriminative ability (time-dependent concordance index 0.789, 95% CI 0.779-0.799) and the RSF model produced better-calibrated survival estimates (integrated Brier score 0.096, 95% CI 0.094-0.099), but these are not statistically significant. Additionally, the RSF, GBM, DeepSurv, Cox-Time, and N-MTLR models have comparable predictive accuracy to the Cox Proportional Hazards model in terms of discrimination and calibration. The calibration curves showed that all the ML models exhibited good 5-year survival calibration. The decision curves for CRC-specific survival at 5 years showed that all the ML models, especially RSF, had higher net benefits than default strategies of treating all or no patients at a range of clinically reasonable risk thresholds. The SHapley Additive exPlanations method revealed that R0 resection, tumor-node-metastasis staging, and the number of positive lymph nodes were important factors for 5-year CRC-specific survival.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed the potential of applying time-to-event ML predictive algorithms to help predict CRC-specific survival. The RSF, GBM, Cox-Time, and N-MTLR algorithms could provide nonparametric alternatives to the Cox Proportional Hazards model in estimating the survival probability of patients with CRC. The transparent time-to-event ML models help clinicians to more accurately predict the survival rate for these patients and improve patient outcomes by enabling personalized treatment plans that are informed by explainable ML models.

Interpretable deep learning for improving cancer patient survival based on personal transcriptomes

Precision medicine chooses the optimal drug for a patient by considering individual differences. With the tremendous amount of data accumulated for cancers, we develop an interpretable neural network to predict cancer patient survival based on drug prescriptions and personal transcriptomes (CancerIDP). The deep learning model achieves 96% classification accuracy in distinguishing short-lived from long-lived patients. The Pearson correlation between predicted and actual months-to-death values is as high as 0.937. About 27.4% of patients may survive longer with an alternative medicine chosen by our deep learning model. The median survival time of all patients can increase by 3.9 months. Our interpretable neural network model reveals the most discriminating pathways in the decision-making process, which will further facilitate mechanistic studies of drug development for cancers.

Cancer survival prediction by learning comprehensive deep feature representation for multiple types of genetic data

BACKGROUND

Cancer is one of the leading death causes around the world. Accurate prediction of its survival time is significant, which can help clinicians make appropriate therapeutic schemes. Cancer data can be characterized by varied molecular features, clinical behaviors and morphological appearances. However, the cancer heterogeneity problem usually makes patient samples with different risks (i.e., short and long survival time) inseparable, thereby causing unsatisfactory prediction results. Clinical studies have shown that genetic data tends to contain more molecular biomarkers associated with cancer, and hence integrating multi-type genetic data may be a feasible way to deal with cancer heterogeneity. Although multi-type gene data have been used in the existing work, how to learn more effective features for cancer survival prediction has not been well studied.

RESULTS

To this end, we propose a deep learning approach to reduce the negative impact of cancer heterogeneity and improve the cancer survival prediction effect. It represents each type of genetic data as the shared and specific features, which can capture the consensus and complementary information among all types of data. We collect mRNA expression, DNA methylation and microRNA expression data for four cancers to conduct experiments.

CONCLUSIONS

Experimental results demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms established integrative methods and is effective for cancer survival prediction.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

https://github.com/githyr/ComprehensiveSurvival .

Deep learning-extracted CT imaging phenotypes predict response to total resection in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Deep learning surpasses many traditional methods for many vision tasks, allowing the transformation of hierarchical features into more abstract, high-level features.

PURPOSE

To evaluate the prognostic value of preoperative computed tomography (CT) image texture features and deep learning self-learning high-throughput features (SHF) on postoperative overall survival in the treatment of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The dataset consisted of 810 enrolled patients with CRC confirmed from 10 November 2011 to 10 February 2018. In contrast, SHF extracted by deep learning with multi-task training mechanism and texture features were extracted from the CT with tumor volume region of interest, respectively, and combined with the Cox proportional hazard (CoxPH) model for initial validation to obtain a RAD score to classify patients into high- and low-risk groups. The SHF stability was further validated in combination with Neural Multi-Task Logistic Regression (N-MTLR) model. The overall recognition ability and accuracy of CoxPH and N-MTLR model were evaluated by C-index and Integrated Brier Score (IBS).

RESULTS

SHF had a more significant degree of differentiation than texture features. The result is (SHF vs. texture features: C-index: 0.884 vs. 0.611; IBS: 0.025 vs. 0.073) in the CoxPH model, and (SHF vs. texture features: C-index: 0.861 vs. 0.630; IBS: 0.024 vs. 0.065) in N-MTLR.

CONCLUSION

SHF is superior to texture features and has potential application for the preoperative prediction of the individualized treatment of CRC.

Optimizing prognostic factors of five-year survival in gastric cancer patients using feature selection techniques with machine learning algorithms: a comparative study

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer is the most common malignant tumor worldwide and a leading cause of cancer deaths. This neoplasm has a poor prognosis and heterogeneous outcomes. Survivability prediction may help select the best treatment plan based on an individual's prognosis. Numerous clinical and pathological features are generally used in predicting gastric cancer survival, and their influence on the survival of this cancer has not been fully elucidated. Moreover, the five-year survivability prognosis performances of feature selection methods with machine learning (ML) classifiers for gastric cancer have not been fully benchmarked. Therefore, we adopted several well-known feature selection methods and ML classifiers together to determine the best-paired feature selection-classifier for this purpose.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study on a dataset of 974 patients diagnosed with gastric cancer in the Ayatollah Talleghani Hospital, Abadan, Iran. First, four feature selection algorithms, including Relief, Boruta, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) were used to select a set of relevant features that are very informative for five-year survival prediction in gastric cancer patients. Then, each feature set was fed to three classifiers: XG Boost (XGB), hist gradient boosting (HGB), and support vector machine (SVM) to develop predictive models. Finally, paired feature selection-classifier methods were evaluated to select the best-paired method using the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and f1-score metrics.

RESULTS

The LASSO feature selection algorithm combined with the XG Boost classifier achieved an accuracy of 89.10%, a specificity of 87.15%, a sensitivity of 89.42%, an AUC of 89.37%, and an f1-score of 90.8%. Tumor stage, history of other cancers, lymphatic invasion, tumor site, type of treatment, body weight, histological type, and addiction were identified as the most significant factors affecting gastric cancer survival.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proved the worth of the paired feature selection-classifier to identify the best path that could augment the five-year survival prediction in gastric cancer patients. Our results were better than those of previous studies, both in terms of the time required to form the models and the performance measurement criteria of the algorithms. These findings may be very promising and can, therefore, inform clinical decision-making and shed light on future studies.

Role of artificial intelligence in risk prediction, prognostication, and therapy response assessment in colorectal cancer: current state and future directions

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a branch of computer science that utilizes optimization, probabilistic and statistical approaches to analyze and make predictions based on a vast amount of data. In recent years, AI has revolutionized the field of oncology and spearheaded novel approaches in the management of various cancers, including colorectal cancer (CRC). Notably, the applications of AI to diagnose, prognosticate, and predict response to therapy in CRC, is gaining traction and proving to be promising. There have also been several advancements in AI technologies to help predict metastases in CRC and in Computer-Aided Detection (CAD) Systems to improve miss rates for colorectal neoplasia. This article provides a comprehensive review of the role of AI in predicting risk, prognosis, and response to therapies among patients with CRC.

Artificial intelligence fusion for predicting survival of rectal cancer patients using immunohistochemical expression of Ras homolog family member B in biopsy

Aim

The process of biomarker discovery is being accelerated with the application of artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning. Biomarkers of diseases are useful because they are indicators of pathogenesis or measures of responses to therapeutic treatments, and therefore, play a key role in new drug development. Proteins are among the candidates for biomarkers of rectal cancer, which need to be explored using state-of-the-art AI to be utilized for prediction, prognosis, and therapeutic treatment. This paper aims to investigate the predictive power of Ras homolog family member B (RhoB) protein in rectal cancer.

Methods

This study introduces the integration of pretrained convolutional neural networks and support vector machines (SVMs) for classifying biopsy samples of immunohistochemical expression of protein RhoB in rectal-cancer patients to validate its biologic measure in biopsy. Features of the immunohistochemical expression images were extracted by the pretrained networks and used for binary classification by the SVMs into two groups of less and more than 5-year survival rates.

Results

The fusion of neural search architecture network (NASNet)-Large for deep-layer feature extraction and classifier using SVMs provided the best average classification performance with a total accuracy = 85%, prediction of survival rate of more than 5 years = 90%, and prediction of survival rate of less than 5 years = 75%.

Conclusions

The finding obtained from the use of AI reported in this study suggest that RhoB expression on rectal-cancer biopsy can be potentially used as a biomarker for predicting survival outcomes in rectal-cancer patients, which can be informative for clinical decision making if the patient would be recommended for preoperative therapy.

A two-stage stacked-based heterogeneous ensemble learning for cancer survival prediction

Cancer survival prediction is one of the three major tasks of cancer prognosis. To improve the accuracy of cancer survival prediction, in this paper, we propose a priori knowledge- and stability-based feature selection (PKSFS) method and develop a novel two-stage heterogeneous stacked ensemble learning model (BQAXR) to predict the survival status of cancer patients. Specifically, PKSFS first obtains the optimal feature subsets from the high-dimensional cancer datasets to guide the subsequent model construction. Then, BQAXR seeks to generate five high-quality heterogeneous learners, among which the shortcomings of the learners are overcome by using improved methods, and integrate them in two stages through the stacked generalization strategy based on optimal feature subsets. To verify the merits of PKSFS and BQAXR, this paper collected the real survival datasets of gastric cancer and skin cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute, and conducted extensive numerical experiments from different perspectives based on these two datasets. The accuracy and AUC of the proposed method are 0.8209 and 0.8203 in the gastric cancer dataset, and 0.8336 and 0.8214 in the skin cancer dataset. The results show that PKSFS has marked advantages over popular feature selection methods in processing high-dimensional datasets. By taking full advantage of heterogeneous high-quality learners, BQAXR is not only superior to mainstream machine learning methods, but also outperforms improved machine learning methods, which indicates can effectively improve the accuracy of cancer survival prediction and provide a reference for doctors to make medical decisions.

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Screening, Diagnosis, Treatment, and Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Accurate early detection and diagnosis, comprehensive assessment of treatment response, and precise prediction of prognosis are essential to improve the patients’ survival rate. In recent years, due to the explosion of clinical and omics data, and groundbreaking research in machine learning, artificial intelligence (AI) has shown a great application potential in clinical field of CRC, providing new auxiliary approaches for clinicians to identify high-risk patients, select precise and personalized treatment plans, as well as to predict prognoses. This review comprehensively analyzes and summarizes the research progress and clinical application value of AI technologies in CRC screening, diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis, demonstrating the current status of the AI in the main clinical stages. The limitations, challenges, and future perspectives in the clinical implementation of AI are also discussed.

Development of artificial intelligence technology in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of colorectal cancer

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has made leaps and bounds since its invention. AI technology can be subdivided into many technologies such as machine learning and deep learning. The application scope and prospect of different technologies are also totally different. Currently, AI technologies play a pivotal role in the highly complex and wide-ranging medical field, such as medical image recognition, biotechnology, auxiliary diagnosis, drug research and development, and nutrition. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common gastrointestinal cancer that has a high mortality, posing a serious threat to human health. Many CRCs are caused by the malignant transformation of colorectal polyps. Therefore, early diagnosis and treatment are crucial to CRC prognosis. The methods of diagnosing CRC are divided into imaging diagnosis, endoscopy, and pathology diagnosis. Treatment methods are divided into endoscopic treatment, surgical treatment, and drug treatment. AI technology is in the weak era and does not have communication capabilities. Therefore, the current AI technology is mainly used for image recognition and auxiliary analysis without in-depth communication with patients. This article reviews the application of AI in the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of CRC and provides the prospects for the broader application of AI in CRC.

Design and Development of an Intelligent System for Predicting 5-Year Survival in Gastric Cancer

Background:

Gastric cancer remains one of the leading causes of worldwide cancer-specific deaths. Accurately predicting the survival likelihood of gastric cancer patients can inform caregivers to boost patient prognostication and choose the best possible treatment path. This study intends to develop an intelligent system based on machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting the 5-year survival status in gastric cancer patients.

Methods:

A data set that includes the records of 974 gastric cancer patients retrospectively was used. First, the most important predictors were recognized using the Boruta feature selection algorithm. Five classifiers, including J48 decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM) with radial basic function (RBF) kernel, bootstrap aggregating (Bagging), hist gradient boosting (HGB), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), were trained for predicting gastric cancer survival. The performance of the used techniques was evaluated with specificity, sensitivity, likelihood ratio, and total accuracy. Finally, the system was developed according to the best model.

Results:

The stage, position, and size of tumor were selected as the 3 top predictors for gastric cancer survival. Among the 6 selected ML algorithms, the HGB classifier with the mean accuracy, mean specificity, mean sensitivity, mean area under the curve, and mean F1-score of 88.37%, 86.24%, 89.72%, 88.11%, and 89.91%, respectively, gained the best performance.

Conclusions:

The ML models can accurately predict the 5-year survival and potentially act as a customized recommender for decision-making in gastric cancer patients. The developed system in our study can improve the quality of treatment, patient safety, and survival rates; it may guide prescribing more personalized medicine.

A diagnostic prediction model for colorectal cancer in elderlies via internet of medical things

Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) and embedded systems have improved the healthcare systems by enabling remote monitoring the patients’ health conditions anywhere and anytime especially during novel COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, an IoT-based predicting model is proposed to predict colorectal cancer (CRC) in elderlies. It provides a CRC predicting model for the involved medical team to continuously trace an elderly’s biological indicators using smart wearable embedded systems and medical IoT devices. In this model, vital medical data is collected by IoMT devices and sensors, then analytical information is derived via machine learning (ML) methods for early CRC diagnosis and elderly’s health parameters changes. The experimental results confirm that the suggested model meets the proper accuracy of predicting the CRC in aged people.

A heterogeneous ensemble learning method for neuroblastoma survival prediction

Neuroblastoma is a pediatric cancer with high morbidity and mortality. Accurate survival prediction of patients with neuroblastoma plays an important role in the formulation of treatment plans. In this study, we proposed a heterogeneous ensemble learning method to predict the survival of neuroblastoma patients and extract decision rules from the proposed method to assist doctors in making decisions. After data preprocessing, five heterogeneous base learners were developed, which consisted of decision tree, random forest, support vector machine based on genetic algorithm, extreme gradient boosting and light gradient boosting machine. Subsequently, a heterogeneous feature selection method was devised to obtain the optimal feature subset of each base learner, and the optimal feature subset of each base learner guided the construction of the base learners as a priori knowledge. Furthermore, an area under curve-based ensemble mechanism was proposed to integrate the five heterogeneous base learners. Finally, the proposed method was compared with mainstream machine learning methods from different indicators, and valuable information was extracted by using the partial dependency plot analysis method and rule-extracted method from the proposed method. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves an accuracy of 91.64%, recall of 91.14%, and AUC of 91.35% and is significantly better than the mainstream machine learning methods. In addition, interpretable rules with accuracy higher than 0.900 and predicted responses are extracted from the proposed method. Our study can effectively improve the performance of the clinical decision support system to improve the survival of neuroblastoma patients.

SurvNet: A Novel Deep Neural Network for Lung Cancer Survival Analysis With Missing Values

Survival analysis is important for guiding further treatment and improving lung cancer prognosis. It is a challenging task because of the poor distinguishability of features and the missing values in practice. A novel multi-task based neural network, SurvNet, is proposed in this paper. The proposed SurvNet model is trained in a multi-task learning framework to jointly learn across three related tasks: input reconstruction, survival classification, and Cox regression. It uses an input reconstruction mechanism cooperating with incomplete-aware reconstruction loss for latent feature learning of incomplete data with missing values. Besides, the SurvNet model introduces a context gating mechanism to bridge the gap between survival classification and Cox regression. A new real-world dataset of 1,137 patients with IB-IIA stage non-small cell lung cancer is collected to evaluate the performance of the SurvNet model. The proposed SurvNet achieves a higher concordance index than the traditional Cox model and Cox-Net. The difference between high-risk and low-risk groups obtained by SurvNet is more significant than that of high-risk and low-risk groups obtained by the other models. Moreover, the SurvNet outperforms the other models even though the input data is randomly cropped and it achieves better generalization performance on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) dataset.

Cancer Risk Analysis Based on Improved Probabilistic Neural Network

The problem of cancer risk analysis is of great importance to health-service providers and medical researchers. In this study, we propose a novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm based on the probabilistic framework, which aims to investigate patient patterns associated with their disease development. Compared to the traditional ANN where input features are directly extracted from raw data, the proposed probabilistic ANN manipulates original inputs according to their probability distribution. More precisely, the Naïve Bayes and Markov chain models are used to approximate the posterior distribution of the raw inputs, which provides a useful estimation of subsequent disease development. Later, this distribution information is further leveraged as additional input to train ANN. Additionally, to reduce the training cost and to boost the generalization capability, a sparse training strategy is also introduced. Experimentally, one of the largest cancer-related datasets is employed in this study. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, the proposed algorithm achieves a much better outcome, in terms of the prediction accuracy of subsequent disease development. The result also reveals the potential impact of patients' disease sequence on their future risk management.

Artificial Intelligence to Decode Cancer Mechanism: Beyond Patient Stratification for Precision Oncology

The multitude of multi-omics data generated cost-effectively using advanced high-throughput technologies has imposed challenging domain for research in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Data curation poses a significant challenge as different parameters, instruments, and sample preparations approaches are employed for generating these big data sets. AI could reduce the fuzziness and randomness in data handling and build a platform for the data ecosystem, and thus serve as the primary choice for data mining and big data analysis to make informed decisions. However, AI implication remains intricate for researchers/clinicians lacking specific training in computational tools and informatics. Cancer is a major cause of death worldwide, accounting for an estimated 9.6 million deaths in 2018. Certain cancers, such as pancreatic and gastric cancers, are detected only after they have reached their advanced stages with frequent relapses. Cancer is one of the most complex diseases affecting a range of organs with diverse disease progression mechanisms and the effectors ranging from gene-epigenetics to a wide array of metabolites. Hence a comprehensive study, including genomics, epi-genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, along with the medical/mass-spectrometry imaging, patient clinical history, treatments provided, genetics, and disease endemicity, is essential. Cancer Moonshot℠ Research Initiatives by NIH National Cancer Institute aims to collect as much information as possible from different regions of the world and make a cancer data repository. AI could play an immense role in (a) analysis of complex and heterogeneous data sets (multi-omics and/or inter-omics), (b) data integration to provide a holistic disease molecular mechanism, (c) identification of diagnostic and prognostic markers, and (d) monitor patient's response to drugs/treatments and recovery. AI enables precision disease management well beyond the prevalent disease stratification patterns, such as differential expression and supervised classification. This review highlights critical advances and challenges in omics data analysis, dealing with data variability from lab-to-lab, and data integration. We also describe methods used in data mining and AI methods to obtain robust results for precision medicine from "big" data. In the future, AI could be expanded to achieve ground-breaking progress in disease management.

Predicting postoperative non-small cell lung cancer prognosis via long short-term relational regularization

OBJECTIVES

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Prognosis of lung cancer plays a crucial role in the clinical decision-making process to optimize the treatment for patients. Most of the existing data-driven prognostic prediction models explore the relations between patient's characteristics and outcomes at a specific time interval. Although valuable, they neglect the relations between long-term and short-term prognoses and thus may limit the prediction performance.

METHODS

In this study, we present a novel prognostic prediction approach for postoperative NSCLC patients. Specifically, we formulate the learning objective function by exploiting the relations between long-term and short-term prognoses via a long short-term relational regularization. The regularization term is composed of two parts, i.e., the similarities between prognoses measured by patients' outcomes and the L₂ -norms between the corresponding prognoses' weight vectors. Based on this regularization, the proposed method can extract critical risk factors that comprehensively consider the long-term and short-term prognoses to facilitate the estimation of clinical risks.

RESULTS

We evaluate the proposed model on a clinical dataset containing 693 consecutive postoperative NSCLC patients with more than 5-year follow-up from 2006 to 2015. Our best models achieve 0.743, 0.709, and 0.746 AUCs for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival prediction, 0.696, 0.724, and 0.736 AUCs for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence prediction, respectively. The experimental results show the efficiency of our proposed model in improving the performances on 1-year prognostic prediction in comparison with benchmark models. By comparing with the model without the long short-term relational regularization, the proposed model extracts more consistent critical risk factors for both long-term and short-term prognoses and contains fewer unreasonable risk factors under the clinician's review.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the proposed model can effectively exploit the relations between long-term and short-term prognoses. And the risk factors recognized by the proposed model have the potentials for further prognostic prediction of postoperative non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Machine Learning in Epidemiology and Health Outcomes Research

Machine learning approaches to modeling of epidemiologic data are becoming increasingly more prevalent in the literature. These methods have the potential to improve our understanding of health and opportunities for intervention, far beyond our past capabilities. This article provides a walkthrough for creating supervised machine learning models with current examples from the literature. From identifying an appropriate sample and selecting features through training, testing, and assessing performance, the end-to-end approach to machine learning can be a daunting task. We take the reader through each step in the process and discuss novel concepts in the area of machine learning, including identifying treatment effects and explaining the output from machine learning models.

Artificial intelligence in cancer diagnosis and prognosis: Opportunities and challenges

Cancer is an aggressive disease with a low median survival rate. Ironically, the treatment process is long and very costly due to its high recurrence and mortality rates. Accurate early diagnosis and prognosis prediction of cancer are essential to enhance the patient's survival rate. Developments in statistics and computer engineering over the years have encouraged many scientists to apply computational methods such as multivariate statistical analysis to analyze the prognosis of the disease, and the accuracy of such analyses is significantly higher than that of empirical predictions. Furthermore, as artificial intelligence (AI), especially machine learning and deep learning, has found popular applications in clinical cancer research in recent years, cancer prediction performance has reached new heights. This article reviews the literature on the application of AI to cancer diagnosis and prognosis, and summarizes its advantages. We explore how AI assists cancer diagnosis and prognosis, specifically with regard to its unprecedented accuracy, which is even higher than that of general statistical applications in oncology. We also demonstrate ways in which these methods are advancing the field. Finally, opportunities and challenges in the clinical implementation of AI are discussed. Hence, this article provides a new perspective on how AI technology can help improve cancer diagnosis and prognosis, and continue improving human health in the future.