COVID-19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan: An optimal distribution model for high-priority countries

COVID-19 and Rumors: A Dynamic Nested Optimal Control Model

Unfortunately, the COVID-19 outbreak has been accompanied by the spread of rumors and depressing news. Herein, we develop a dynamic nested optimal control model of COVID-19 and its rumor outbreaks. The model aims to curb the epidemics by reducing the number of individuals infected with COVID-19 and reducing the number of rumor-spreaders while minimizing the cost associated with the control interventions. We use the modified approximation Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions with the Hamiltonian function to simplify the model before solving it using a genetic algorithm. The present model highlights three prevention measures that affect COVID-19 and its rumor outbreaks. One represents the interventions to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. The other two represent interventions to increase awareness, disseminate the correct information, and impose penalties on the spreaders of false rumors. The results emphasize the importance of interventions in curbing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated rumor problems alike.

COVID-19 and Chikungunya: an optimal control model with consideration of social and environmental factors

Chikungunya is one of the Aedes aegypti diseases that mosquito transmits to humans and that are common in tropical countries like Yemen. In this work, we formulated a novel dynamic mathematical model framework, which integrates COVID-19 and Chikungunya outbreaks. The proposed model is governed by a system of dynamic ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Particle swarm optimization was employed to solve the parameters estimation problem of the outbreaks of COVID-19 and Chikungunya in Yemen (March 1, 2020, to May 30, 2020). Besides, a bi-objective optimal control model was formulated, which minimizes the number of affected individuals and minimizes the total cost associated with the intervention strategies. The bi-objective optimal control was also solved using PSO. Five preventive measures were considered to curb the environmental and social factors that trigger the emergence of these viruses. Several strategies were simulated to evaluate the best possible strategy under the conditions and available resources in Yemen. The results obtained confirm that the strategy, which provides resources to prevent the transmission of Chikungunya and provides sufficient resources for testing, applying average social distancing, and quarrying the affected individuals, has a significant effect on flattening the epidemic curves and is the most suitable strategy in Yemen.

Healthcare’s Sustainable Resource Planning Using Neutrosophic Goal Programming

We develop neutrosophic goal programming models for sustainable resource planning in a healthcare organization. The neutrosophic approach can help examine the imprecise aspiration levels of resources. For deneutrosophication, the neutrosophic value is transformed into three intervals based on the truth, falsity, and indeterminacy-membership functions. Then, a crisp value is derived. Moreover, multi-choice goal programming is also used to get a crisp value. The proposed models seek to draw a strategic plan and long-term vision for a healthcare organization. Accordingly, the specific aims of the proposed flexible models are meant to evaluate hospital service performance and to establish an optimal plan to meet the growing patient needs. As a result, sustainability's economic and social goals will be achieved so that the total cost would be optimized, patients' waiting time would be reduced, high-quality services would be offered, and appropriate medical drugs would be provided. The simplicity and feasibility of the proposed models are validated using real data collected from the Al-Amal Center for Oncology, Aden, Yemen. The results obtained indicate the robustness of the proposed models, which would be valuable for planners who could guide healthcare staff in providing the necessary resources for optimal annual planning.

Trend Analysis and Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ethiopia

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is affecting both lives of millions of people and the global economy of the world day by day. This study aimed to determine the trend of COVID-19 and its predictions in Ethiopia.

Study Design: This study was conducted based on a time series design.

Methods: The required data were collected from the Ethiopian COVID-19 monitoring platform beginning from the onset of the disease in the country until March 28, 2021. Furthermore, the auto-regressive integrated moving average models were used on daily-based time series. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression were also employed to notice the effects of months on the transmission and disease-related human deaths.

Results: The mean daily infection and death of COVID-19 in Ethiopia were 533.47±466.62 and 7.45±6.72, respectively. The peaks of infection and deaths in this country were in March, 2021, and August, 2020. In addition, the trend of daily new deaths (P=0.000) and infection (P=0.000) was significantly increasing. It is expected that around 10 million (8.6%) and 138,084.64 (0.12%) Ethiopians will be infected and die, respectively.

Conclusions: The disease transmission and deaths vary from day to day and month to month. The highest peaks of COVID-19 infection and death were in March 2021 and August 2020. For the next end of August 2021, the COVID-19 daily new infection, new death, total case, and total death are expected to be increased. If this epidemic disease is not controlled, Ethiopia will face a severe shortage of hospitals, and the outbreak even becomes worse.