1
|
Hu H, Xiong S, Zhang X, Liu S, Gu L, Zhu Y, Xiang D, Skitmore M. The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate. Heliyon 2023; 9:e14533. [PMID: 36945346 PMCID: PMC10017169 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/09/2023] [Indexed: 03/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The social contact rate has influenced the transmission of COVID-19, with more social contact resulting in more contagion cases. We chose 18 countries with the most confirmed cases in the first 200 days after the Wuhan lockdown. This was the first study using the dynamic social contact rate to simulate the epidemic under diverse restriction policies over 500 days since the COVID-19 outbreak. The developed General Dynamic Model suggested that the probability of contagion ranged from 12.52% to 39.39% in the epidemic. The geometric mean of the social contact rates differed from 18.21% to 96.00% between countries. The restriction policies in developed economies were 3.5 times more efficient than in developing economies. We compare the effectiveness of different policies for disease prevention and discuss the influence of policy adjustment frequency for each country. Maintaining the tightest restriction or alternate tightening and loosening restrictions was recommended, with each having an average 72.45% and 79.78% reduction in maximum active cases, respectively.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hui Hu
- Economic Development Research Centre, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
- Health Economics and Management Centre, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
- School of Economics & Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
| | - Shuaizhou Xiong
- School of Economics & Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
| | - Xiaoling Zhang
- Department of Public and International Affairs, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
- School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
- Shenzhen Research Institute, City University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Shuzhou Liu
- School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Hubei, China
| | - Lin Gu
- RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project (AIP), Tokyo, Japan
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuqi Zhu
- School of Economics & Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, China
| | - Dongjin Xiang
- School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Hubei, China
| | | |
Collapse
|
2
|
Rana A, Kamali M, Riyadh MM, Sultana SR, Kamal MR, Alam MS, Hewage K, Sadiq R. Energy efficiency in residential buildings amid COVID-19: A holistic comparative analysis between old and new normal occupancies. ENERGY AND BUILDINGS 2022; 277:112551. [PMID: 36320632 PMCID: PMC9612947 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112551] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2022] [Revised: 10/03/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Stringent lockdowns have been one of the defining features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns have brought about drastic changes in living styles, including increased residential occupancy and telework practices predicted to last long. The variation in occupancy pattern and energy use needs to be assessed at the household level. Consequently, the new occupancy times will impact the performance of energy efficiency measures. To address these gaps, this work uses a real case study, a two-story residential building in the Okanagan Valley (British Columbia, Canada). Further, steady-state building energy simulations are performed on the HOT2000 tool to evaluate the resiliency of energy efficiency measures under a full lockdown. Three-year monitored energy data is analyzed to study the implications of COVID-19 lockdowns on HVAC and non-HVAC loads at a monthly temporal scale. The results show a marked change in energy use patterns and a higher increase in May 2020 compared to the previous two years. Calibrated energy models built on HOT2000 are then used to study the impacts of pre-COVID-19 (old normal occupancy) and post-COVID-19 (new normal occupancy) on energy upgrades performance. The simulations show that under higher occupancy times, the annual electricity use increased by 16.4%, while natural gas use decreased by 7.6%. The results indicate that overall residential buildings following pre-COVID-19 occupancy schedules had higher energy-saving potential than those with new normal occupancy. In addition, the variation in occupancy and stakeholder preferences directly impact the ranking of energy efficiency measures. Furthermore, this study identifies energy efficiency measures that provide flexibility for the decision-makers by identifying low-cost options feasible under a range of occupancy schedules.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anber Rana
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Mohammad Kamali
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
- School of Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada
| | - M Mohammed Riyadh
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - S Rubaiya Sultana
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - M Rubayat Kamal
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - M Shahria Alam
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Kasun Hewage
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Rehan Sadiq
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Huang Z, Gou Z. Electricity consumption variation of public buildings in response to COVID-19 restriction and easing policies: A case study in Scotland, U.K. ENERGY AND BUILDINGS 2022; 267:112149. [PMID: 35528314 PMCID: PMC9065649 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2022] [Revised: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
A growing number of studies have showed energy demand changes during COVID-19; this study aims to further disclose the impact of the restriction and easing policies on the energy consumption of public buildings where occupants' usage and activities are regulated in response to the pandemic. This study analyzes half-hourly electricity consumption data of 35 public buildings covering 6 building types in the Perth and Kinross Council area in Scotland, U.K., over the span of 2020 and 2021. The results show that the restriction has a greater impact on the electricity reduction in the first year of the pandemic than that in the second year. In response to the restriction, the electricity use intensity of all public buildings reduces significantly (p < 0.001) except office buildings with no significant reduction (p > 0.05); secondary schools have the highest electricity consumption reduction (275.04 kwh/day), while museums have the lowest reduction (58.62 kwh/day). In addition, the electricity consumption and electricity use intensity of museum, library and school buildings are inversely proportional to the restriction intensity, while this is opposite for office buildings. Combing restriction intensity and mobility data, this research reveals the different impacts of the restriction policies on the electricity consumption of public buildings during the pandemic, which reflects people's changing attitudes and behaviors towards COVID-19. The results provide a reference basis for energy management to develop more realistic energy demand policies based on public building types and to optimize the electricity supply load and energy profile during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zefeng Huang
- School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Zhonghua Gou
- School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Yukseltan E, Kok A, Yucekaya A, Bilge A, Aktunc EA, Hekimoglu M. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and behavioral restrictions on electricity consumption and the daily demand curve in Turkey. UTILITIES POLICY 2022; 76:101359. [PMID: 35250191 PMCID: PMC8882403 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2022.101359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2021] [Revised: 02/17/2022] [Accepted: 02/17/2022] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
The rapid spread of COVID-19 has severely impacted many sectors, including the electricity sector. The reliability of the electricity sector is critical to the economy, health, and welfare of society; therefore, supply and demand need to be balanced in real-time, and the impact of unexpected factors should be analyzed. During the pandemic, behavioral restrictions such as lockdowns, closure of factories, schools, and shopping malls, and changing habits, such as shifted work and leisure hours at home, significantly affected the demand structure. In this research, the restrictions and their corresponding timing are classified and mapped with the Turkish electricity demand data to analyze the estimated impact of the restrictions on total demand and daily demand profile. A modulated Fourier Series Expansion evaluates deviations from normal conditions in the aggregate demand and the daily consumption profile. The aggregate demand shows a significant decrease in the early phase of the pandemic, during the period March-June 2020. The shape of the daily demand curve is analyzed to estimate how much demand shifted from daytime to night-time. A population-based restriction index is proposed to analyze the relationship between the strength and coverage of the restrictions and the total demand. The persistency of the changes in the daily demand curve in the post-contingency period is analyzed. These findings imply that new scheduling approaches for daily and weekly loads are required to avoid supply-demand mismatches in the future. The long-term policy implications for the energy transition and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic experience are also presented.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- E Yukseltan
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - A Kok
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - A Yucekaya
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - A Bilge
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - E Agca Aktunc
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - M Hekimoglu
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Malagón-Rojas J, Mendez-Molano D, Almentero J, Toloza-Pérez YG, Parra-Barrera EL, Gómez-Rendón CP. Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Experience of Bogotá, 2020. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:6350. [PMID: 35627886 PMCID: PMC9141921 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19106350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2022] [Revised: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
During the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, several environmental factors have influenced activities and protection policy measures in cities. This has had a major effect on climate change and global environmental catastrophe. In many countries, the strategy of closing various activities such as tourism and industrial production stopped normal life, transportation, etc. This closure has a positive impact on the environment. However, the massive use of masks and personal protection could significantly increase pollution worldwide. The impact on the environment needs to be calculated to have information for public health actions. In this study, we present a first overview of the potential impacts of COVID-19 on some environmental matrices in Bogotá, Colombia.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jeadran Malagón-Rojas
- Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogotá 111321, Colombia; (D.M.-M.); (J.A.); (Y.G.T.-P.); (E.L.P.-B.)
- Doctorado en Salud Pública, El Bosque University, Bogotá 110121, Colombia;
| | - Daniela Mendez-Molano
- Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogotá 111321, Colombia; (D.M.-M.); (J.A.); (Y.G.T.-P.); (E.L.P.-B.)
| | - Julia Almentero
- Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogotá 111321, Colombia; (D.M.-M.); (J.A.); (Y.G.T.-P.); (E.L.P.-B.)
| | - Yesith G. Toloza-Pérez
- Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogotá 111321, Colombia; (D.M.-M.); (J.A.); (Y.G.T.-P.); (E.L.P.-B.)
| | - Eliana L. Parra-Barrera
- Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogotá 111321, Colombia; (D.M.-M.); (J.A.); (Y.G.T.-P.); (E.L.P.-B.)
| | | |
Collapse
|
6
|
Giordono LS, Flora J, Zanocco C, Boudet H. Food Practice Lifestyles: Identification and Implications for Energy Sustainability. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:5638. [PMID: 35565032 PMCID: PMC9103468 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19095638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Revised: 04/01/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Food systems, including production, acquisition, preparation, and consumption, feature importantly in environmental sustainability, energy consumption and climate change. With predicted increases in food and water shortages associated with climate change, food-related lifestyle and behavioral changes are advocated as important mitigation and adaptation measures. Yet, reducing emissions from food systems is predicted to be one of our greatest challenges now and in the future. Traditional theories of environmental behavioral change often assume that individuals make "reasoned choices" that incorporate cost-benefit assessment, moral and normative concerns and affect/symbolic motives, yielding behavioral interventions that are often designed as informational or structural strategies. In contrast, some researchers recommend moving toward an approach that systematically examines the temporal organization of society with an eye toward understanding the patterns of social practices to better understand behaviors and develop more targeted and effective interventions. Our study follows on these recommendations with a study of food consumption "lifestyles" in the United States, using extant time use diary data from a nationally representative sample of Americans (n = 16,100) from 2014 to 2016. We use cluster analysis to identify unique groups based on temporal and locational eating patterns. We find evidence of six respondent clusters with distinct patterns of food consumption based on timing and location of eating, as well as individual and household characteristics. Factors associated with cluster membership include age, employment status, and marital status. We note the close connections between age and behaviors, suggesting that a life course scholarship approach may add valuable insight. Based on our findings, we identify opportunities for promoting sustainable energy use in the context of the transition to renewables, such as targeting energy-shifting and efficiency-improvement interventions based on group membership.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Leanne S. Giordono
- School of Public Policy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;
| | - June Flora
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; (J.F.); (C.Z.)
| | - Chad Zanocco
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; (J.F.); (C.Z.)
| | - Hilary Boudet
- School of Public Policy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Buechler E, Powell S, Sun T, Astier N, Zanocco C, Bolorinos J, Flora J, Boudet H, Rajagopal R. Global changes in electricity consumption during COVID-19. iScience 2022; 25:103568. [PMID: 34877481 PMCID: PMC8641442 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.103568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2021] [Revised: 09/08/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic has altered electricity consumption can provide insights into society's responses to future shocks and other extreme events. We quantify changes in electricity consumption in 58 different countries/regions around the world from January-October 2020 and examine how those changes relate to government restrictions, health outcomes, GDP, mobility metrics, and electricity sector characteristics in different countries. We cluster the timeseries of electricity consumption changes to identify impact groupings that capture systematic differences in timing, depth of initial changes, and recovery rate, revealing substantial heterogeneity. Results show that stricter government restrictions and larger decreases in mobility (particularly retail and recreation) are most tightly linked to decreases in electricity consumption, although these relationships are strongest during the initial phase of the pandemic. We find indications that decreases in electricity consumption relate to pre-pandemic sensitivity to holidays, suggesting a new direction for future research.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Siobhan Powell
- Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Tao Sun
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | | | - Chad Zanocco
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Jose Bolorinos
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - June Flora
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Hilary Boudet
- School of Public Policy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Ram Rajagopal
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Hussain S, Xuetong W, Hussain T, Khoja AH, Zia MZ. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and safety parameters on energy project performance with an analytical hierarchy process. UTILITIES POLICY 2021; 70:101210. [PMID: 35702338 PMCID: PMC9186063 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2021.101210] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Revised: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/18/2021] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has destabilized the global economy, disrupted the lives of billions of people globally, and caused the workforce to suffer. Furthermore, the spread of this disease has caused most nations to impose strict lockdown regulations and shutdown most industries. This study aimed to highlight the key issues of energy project performance alongside construction activities that were halted during the COVID-19 outbreak to follow social distancing, lockdown, and public safety parameters. A questionnaire survey was administered to accomplish the purpose of this study. The responses of 42 energy project professionals and experts were evaluated using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for group decision-making. AHP shows that the biggest influences on project performance during COVID-19 pandemic were government measures and personal factors. The findings provide insight to support energy project planning and management during and after the pandemic, including prioritization of labor force health and safety.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shahid Hussain
- School of Management, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Wang Xuetong
- School of Management, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Talib Hussain
- Department of Business Management, Karakoram International University, Diamer Campus, Pakistan
| | - Asif Hussain Khoja
- U.S.-Pakistan Centre for Advanced Studies in Energy (USPCAS-E), National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST), H-12 Sector, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Zaeem Zia
- District Health Officer, Health Department-ICT, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|