Modeling current and future potential distributions of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt

Potential distribution of malaria vectors in Central Vietnam: A MaxEnt modeling approach

Background and Aim

In Central Vietnam, Anopheles dirus and Anopheles minimus are the primary malaria vector species. These Anopheles spp.' distribution and prevalence are determined by environmental, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these two Anopheles spp. in this region.

Materials and Methods

This study was conducted in 15 Central Vietnamese provinces. From 2014 to 2018, we utilized An. dirus and An. minimus presence records. Proxy data from the Google Earth Engine platform for the study area, encompassing environmental, climatic, and socioeconomic factors. MaxEnt software predicted the potential environmental, climatic, and socioeconomic suitability of these two Anopheles spp. in Central Vietnam.

Results

The test area under the curve values for An. dirus and An. minimus MaxEnt models averaged 0.801 and 0.806, respectively, showing excellent performance. Minimum air temperature had the greatest impact on the distribution of both species. A negative correlation between precipitation and normalized difference water index influences the occurrence of An. dirus. In the temperature range of 13-19.5°C, An. minimus is most likely to be present, with nighttime light detrimentally influencing its distribution. The Central Highlands region is inhabited by both species, with some presence in North-Central and South-Central Coastal areas.

Conclusion

The importance of temperature in determining the presence of both species is emphasized by our findings, with subtle differences in the temperature-related factors shaping their distributions. The results highlight the need for focused malaria vector control and surveillance initiatives in the study area.

Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation

Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.

Ecological forecasts of insect range dynamics: a broad range of taxa includes winners and losers under future climate

Species distribution models are the primary tools to project future species' distributions, but this complex task is influenced by data limitations and evolving best practices. The majority of the 53 studies we examined utilized correlative models and did not follow current best practices for validating retrospective or future environmental data layers. Despite this, a summary of results is largely unsurprising: shifts toward cooler regions, but otherwise mixed dynamics emphasizing winners and losers. Harmful insects were more likely to show positive outcomes compared with beneficial species. Our restricted ability to consider mechanisms complicates interpretation of any single study. To improve this area of modeling, more classic field and lab studies to uncover basic ecology and physiology are crucial.

Changes in the Range of Four Advantageous Grasshopper Habitats in the Hexi Corridor under Future Climate Conditions

Angaracris rhodopa (Fischer et Walheim), Calliptamus abbreviatus (Ikonnikov), Myrmeleotettix palpalis (Zubowsky), and Oedaleus decorus asiaticus (Bey-Bienko) are the main grasshoppers that harm the natural grassland in the Hexi Corridor in Gansu, northwest China. In this study, the MaxEnt model was employed to identify the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of the four grasshoppers' habitats and to assess their distribution under current and future climate conditions. The aim was to provide a basis for grasshopper monitoring, prediction, and precise control. In this study, distribution of suitable habitats for A. rhodopa, C. abbreviates, M. palpalis, O. decorus asiaticus were predicted under current and future climatic scenarios using the Maxent model. The average AUC (area under the ROC curve) and TSS (true skill statistic) values of the four grasshoppers were greater than 0.9, and the simulation results were excellent and highly reliable. The mean annual precipitation was the main factor limiting the current range of suitable areas for these four species. Under the current climate, A. rhodopa, C. abbreviatus, and O. decorus asiaticus were mainly distributed in the central and eastern parts of the Hexi Corridor, and M. palpalis was distributed throughout the Hexi Corridor, with a suitable area of 1.29 × 104, 1.43 × 104, 1.44 × 104, and 2.12 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.7%, 15.2%, 15.3%, and 22.5% of the total area of the grasslands in the Hexi Corridor, respectively. The highly suitable areas of A. rhodopa, C. abbreviatus, and O. decorus asiaticus were mainly distributed in the eastern-central part of Zhangye City, the western part of Wuwei City, and the western and southern parts of Jinchang City, with areas of 0.20 × 104, 0.29 × 104, and 0.35 × 104 km2, accounting for 2.2%, 3%, and 3.7% of the grassland area, respectively. The high habitat of M. palpalis was mainly distributed in the southeast of Jiuquan City, the west, middle, and east of Zhangye City, the west of Wuwei City, and the west and south of Jinchang City, with an area of 0.32 × 104 km2, accounting for 3.4% of the grassland area. In the 2030s, the range of A. rhodopa, C. abbreviatus, and O. decorus asiaticus was predicted to increase; the range of M. palpalis will decrease. The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for the precise monitoring and control of key areas of grasshoppers in the Hexi Corridor.

Community change and population outbreak of grasshoppers driven by climate change

The response of insects to climate changes in various aspects has been well-documented. However, there is a dearth of comprehensive review specifically focusing on the response and adaptation of grasshoppers, which are important primary consumers and pests in grassland and agricultural ecosystems. The coexistence of grasshopper species forms diverse communities and coherent groups in spatial-temporal scales. It makes them excellent models for studying the interplay of phenology, dispersal, trophic relationship, and population dynamics, all influenced by climate changes. Certain grasshopper species have adapted to climate change through mechanisms such as diapause. Here, we delve into grasshopper community changes, their adaptive strategies, and population outbreaks in response to climate change and land use. By serving as ecological indicators, grasshoppers offer valuable insights for monitoring climatic and environmental shifts. Last, this review puts forth several future directions for comprehending the population dynamics of insects in the context of climate change.

Assessment of suitable cultivation region for Pepino (Solanum muricatum) under different climatic conditions using the MaxEnt model and adaptability in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

Pepino (Solanum muricatum), a member of the Solanaceae family originating from South America, is cultivated globally. However, the cultivation range and suitable habitat of Pepino have not been extensively studied, which hampers the further development of its cultivation industry. Therefore, we aimed at enrich and expand the planting scope of Pepino. Currently, the main cultivation areas of Pepino in China are the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Loess Plateau, where the altitude is above 1000 m. In this study, ArcGIS combined with the MaxEnt model was used for prediction, whose area under curve value was 0.949. The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of Pepino are temperature seasonality, annual means temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, elevation, isothermality, and the climate factors, and their cumulative contribution rate of 87.6%. Pepino's main potential distribution areas are located in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Yunnan Province, Hexi Corridor of Loess Plateau, and low altitude areas of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The main distribution ranges from 1000 to 2000 m above sea level, and the total suitable area accounts for 20.09% of China's total land area. The prediction results reveal an expanded potential area for Pepino, with no significant migration in the central region of the main potential distribution area by 2050 and 2070. No studies have been conducted on the open-area cultivation of Pepino in northern China. Our findings revealed that the yield and quality in the four experimental sites and final actual cultivation conditions were consistent with the predicted results of MaxEnt. The yiel d per plant in Xunhua and Minhe was significantly different from that in Xining, which was low, and that in Minhe was the highest. Overall, the fruit quality in the Xining region was the lowest among the three regions, which was related to the climatic differences in each region. These results align with the predicted outcomes, indicating that Xining is the least suitable area. Further, these data verify the accuracy of the prediction results. The climate data of the four regions were analyzed simultaneously to elucidate the influence of different climate conditions on the growth of Pepino. Our findings are of considerable significance for introducing characteristic horticultural crops in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and using the MaxEnt model to predict the cultivation range of crops.

Modeling climate change impacts on potential global distribution of Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae)

The Asian citrus psyllid (ACP), Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae), is an efficient vector of "Candidatus Liberibacter" species, the causative agents implicated in citrus greening or huanglongbing (HLB). HLB is the most devastating citrus disease and has killed millions of citrus trees worldwide. Classical biological control using Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) against ACP has been successful in some regions. Climatic conditions are critical in determining suitable areas for the geographical distribution of T. radiata. However, paucity of information on climate change impacts on the global spread of T. radiata restricts international efforts to manage ACP with T. radiata. We investigated the potential global distribution of T. radiata using 317 native and non-native occurrence records and 20 environmental data sets (with correlation coefficients (|r| > 0.7)). Using the Maximum Entropy model, these data were analyzed for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two time periods (2030s and 2050s). We showed that habitat suitability for T. radiata occurred in all continents except Antarctica. However, the highly suitable areas for T. radiata were found in parts of the Americas, Asia, Africa and Oceania. The climate suitable areas would increase until the 2050s. The predictions showed that mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of T. radiata. The model reliably predicted habitat suitability for T. radiata, which can be adapted in classical biological control programs to effectively manage ACP in an environmentally friendly manner.

Predictions Based on Different Climate Change Scenarios: The Habitat of Typical Locust Species Is Shrinking in Kazakhstan and Xinjiang, China

Climate change, especially climate extremes, can increase the uncertainty of locust outbreaks. The Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus (Linnaeus, 1758)), Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria Linnaeus, 1758), and Siberian locust (Gomphocerus sibiricus (Linnaeus, 1767)) are common pests widely distributed in the semidesert grasslands of Central Asia and its surrounding regions. Predicting the geographic distribution changes and future habitats of locusts in the context of climate warming is essential to effectively prevent large and sudden locust outbreaks. In this study, the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, employing a combination of climatic, soil, and topographic factors, was used to predict the potential fitness areas of typical locusts in the 2030s and 2050s, assuming four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. Modeling results showed that the mean area under the curve (AUC) and true statistical skill (TSS) of the MaxEnt model reached 0.933 and 0.7651, respectively, indicating that the model exhibited good prediction performance. Our results showed that soil surface sand content, slope, mean precipitation during the hottest season, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental variables affecting locust distribution in the region. The three locust species were mainly distributed in the upstream region of the Irtysh River, the Alatao Mountain region, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, around Sayram Lake, the eastern part of the Alakol Lake region, the Tekes River region, the western part of Ulungur Lake, the Ili River, and the upstream region of the Tarim River. According to several climate projections, the area of potential habitat for the three most common locust species will decrease by 3.9 × 10⁴-4.6 × 10⁴ km² by the 2030s and by 6.4 × 10⁴-10.6 × 10⁴ km² by the 2050s. As the climate becomes more extreme, the suitable area will shrink, but the highly suitable area will expand; thus, the risk of infestation should be taken seriously. Our study present a timely investigation to add to extensive literature currently appearing regarding the myriad ways climate change may affect species. While this naturally details a limited range of taxa, methods and potential impacts may be more broadly applicable to other locust species.

The Handsome Cross Grasshopper Oedaleus decorus (Germar, 1825) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) as a Neglected Pest in the South-Eastern Part of West Siberian Plain

Simple Summary

The handsome cross grasshopper is one of the most abundant and widely distributed grasshopper species over the steppe and semi-desert territories of Eurasia. In many areas, especially in east Mongolia and north-east China, it is a very common and dangerous pest on agriculture fields and pasturelands. However, the species was relatively rare in the steppes of west Siberia until the 1960s, but by the end of the last century, the geographic and ecological distribution of the handsome cross grasshopper was changed significantly. Nowadays, it often occurs across all steppes of the south-eastern part of West Siberian Plain, its abundance is high, and its populations are found in the forest-steppes and also on the eastern side of the Ob River. The authors tried to use ecologo-geographic modelling to estimate how species distribution may change in the near future.

Abstract

Oedaleus decorus is a widely distributed acridid over the Eurasian semi-arid territories, from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast. In many semi-arid territories, O. decorus was and is the most important pest, but in the south-eastern part of West Siberian Plain, it was not considered a pest until the 1960s. We compared two sets of data on the acridid distribution in the region: before 1960 and from 1961 until 2021. Until the 1960s, the species occurred mainly in the southern steppes. Since the 1960s, its distribution changed significantly. Nowadays, it occupies almost all local steppes and the southern part of the forest-steppes and can be also found on the eastern side of the Ob River. These shifts may be explained by both climatic changes and changes in human activities. During upsurges the densities of O. decorus were often more than one to two adults per square meter. It is often abundant in the same habitats and in the same periods as the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus)—one of the most important acridid pests. This means during joint outbreaks these two species can simultaneously damage almost all spectrum of plants.

The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 10⁶ km² and 1.55 × 10⁶ km², respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.