The value of missing information in severity of illness score development

Analysis of multi-level barriers to physical activity among nursing students using regularized regression

Physical inactivity is a growing societal concern with significant impact on public health. Identifying barriers to engaging in physical activity (PA) is a critical step to recognize populations who disproportionately experience these barriers. Understanding barriers to PA holds significant importance within patient-facing healthcare professions like nursing. While determinants of PA have been widely studied, connecting individual and social factors to barriers to PA remains an understudied area among nurses. The objectives of this study are to categorize and model factors related to barriers to PA using the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD) Research Framework. The study population includes nursing students at the study institution (N = 163). Methods include a scoring system to quantify the barriers to PA, and regularized regression models that predict this score. Key findings identify intrinsic motivation, social and emotional support, education, and the use of health technologies for tracking and decision-making purposes as significant predictors. Results can help identify future nursing workforce populations at risk of experiencing barriers to PA. Encouraging the development and employment of health-informatics solutions for monitoring, data sharing, and communication is critical to prevent barriers to PA before they become a powerful hindrance to engaging in PA.

Inherent Bias in Electronic Health Records: A Scoping Review of Sources of Bias

Objectives

1.1Biases inherent in electronic health records (EHRs), and therefore in medical artificial intelligence (AI) models may significantly exacerbate health inequities and challenge the adoption of ethical and responsible AI in healthcare. Biases arise from multiple sources, some of which are not as documented in the literature. Biases are encoded in how the data has been collected and labeled, by implicit and unconscious biases of clinicians, or by the tools used for data processing. These biases and their encoding in healthcare records undermine the reliability of such data and bias clinical judgments and medical outcomes. Moreover, when healthcare records are used to build data-driven solutions, the biases are further exacerbated, resulting in systems that perpetuate biases and induce healthcare disparities. This literature scoping review aims to categorize the main sources of biases inherent in EHRs.

Methods

1.2We queried PubMed and Web of Science on January 19th, 2023, for peer-reviewed sources in English, published between 2016 and 2023, using the PRISMA approach to stepwise scoping of the literature. To select the papers that empirically analyze bias in EHR, from the initial yield of 430 papers, 27 duplicates were removed, and 403 studies were screened for eligibility. 196 articles were removed after the title and abstract screening, and 96 articles were excluded after the full-text review resulting in a final selection of 116 articles.

Results

1.3Systematic categorizations of diverse sources of bias are scarce in the literature, while the effects of separate studies are often convoluted and methodologically contestable. Our categorization of published empirical evidence identified the six main sources of bias: a) bias arising from past clinical trials; b) data-related biases arising from missing, incomplete information or poor labeling of data; human-related bias induced by c) implicit clinician bias, d) referral and admission bias; e) diagnosis or risk disparities bias and finally, (f) biases in machinery and algorithms.

Conclusions

1.4Machine learning and data-driven solutions can potentially transform healthcare delivery, but not without limitations. The core inputs in the systems (data and human factors) currently contain several sources of bias that are poorly documented and analyzed for remedies. The current evidence heavily focuses on data-related biases, while other sources are less often analyzed or anecdotal. However, these different sources of biases add to one another exponentially. Therefore, to understand the issues holistically we need to explore these diverse sources of bias. While racial biases in EHR have been often documented, other sources of biases have been less frequently investigated and documented (e.g. gender-related biases, sexual orientation discrimination, socially induced biases, and implicit, often unconscious, human-related cognitive biases). Moreover, some existing studies lack causal evidence, illustrating the different prevalences of disease across groups, which does not per se prove the causality. Our review shows that data-, human- and machine biases are prevalent in healthcare and they significantly impact healthcare outcomes and judgments and exacerbate disparities and differential treatment. Understanding how diverse biases affect AI systems and recommendations is critical. We suggest that researchers and medical personnel should develop safeguards and adopt data-driven solutions with a "bias-in-mind" approach. More empirical evidence is needed to tease out the effects of different sources of bias on health outcomes.

Trends in Illness Severity, Hospitalization, and Mortality for Community-Onset Pneumonia at 118 US Veterans Affairs Medical Centers

BACKGROUND

Deaths from pneumonia were decreasing globally prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is unclear whether this was due to changes in patient populations, illness severity, diagnosis, hospitalization thresholds, or treatment. Using clinical data from the electronic health record among a national cohort of patients initially diagnosed with pneumonia, we examined temporal trends in severity of illness, hospitalization, and short- and long-term deaths.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort PARTICIPANTS: All patients >18 years presenting to emergency departments (EDs) at 118 VA Medical Centers between 1/1/2006 and 12/31/2016 with an initial clinical diagnosis of pneumonia and confirmed by chest imaging report.

EXPOSURES

Year of encounter.

MAIN MEASURES

Hospitalization and 30-day and 90-day mortality. Illness severity was defined as the probability of each outcome predicted by machine learning predictive models using age, sex, comorbidities, vital signs, and laboratory data from encounters during years 2006-2007, and similar models trained on encounters from years 2015 to 2016. We estimated the changes in hospitalizations and 30-day and 90-day mortality between the first and the last 2 years of the study period accounted for by illness severity using time covariate decompositions with model estimates.

RESULTS

Among 196,899 encounters across the study period, hospitalization decreased from 71 to 63%, 30-day mortality 10 to 7%, 90-day mortality 16 to 12%, and 1-year mortality 29 to 24%. Comorbidity risk increased, but illness severity decreased. Decreases in illness severity accounted for 21-31% of the decrease in hospitalizations, and 45-47%, 32-24%, and 17-19% of the decrease in 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality. Findings were similar among underrepresented patients and those with only hospital discharge diagnosis codes.

CONCLUSIONS

Outcomes for community-onset pneumonia have improved across the VA healthcare system after accounting for illness severity, despite an increase in cases and comorbidity burden.

Risk Management In Intensive Care Units With Artificial Intelligence Technologies: Systematic Review of Prediction Models Using Electronic Health Records

Background and aim: Clinical risk assessments should be made to protect patients from negative outcomes, and the definition, frequency and severity of the risk should be determined. The information contained in the electronic health records (EHRs) can use in different areas such as risk prediction, estimation of treatment effect ect. Many prediction models using artificial intelligence (AI) technologies that can be used in risk assessment have been developed. The aim of this study is to bring together the researches on prediction models developed with AI technologies using the EHRs of patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit (ICU) and to evaluate them in terms of risk management in healthcare. Methods: The study restricted the search to the Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, and Medline databases to retrieve research articles published in English in 2010 and after. Studies with a prediction model using data obtained from EHRs in the ICU are included. The study focused solely on research conducted in ICU to predict a health condition that poses a significant risk to patient safety using artificial intellegence (AI) technologies. Results: Recognized prediction subcategories were mortality (n=6), sepsis (n=4), pressure ulcer (n=4), acute kidney injury (n=3), and other areas (n=10). It has been found that EHR-based prediction models are good risk management and decision support tools and adoption of such models in ICUs may reduce the prevalence of adverse conditions. Conclusions: The article results remarks that developed models was found to have higher performance and better selectivity than previously developed risk models, so they are better at predicting risks and serious adverse events in ICU. It is recommended to use AI based prediction models developed using EHRs in risk management studies. Future work is still needed to researches to predict different health conditions risks.

Axial light loss of monocytes as a readily available prognostic biomarker in patients with suspected infection at the emergency department

Objectives

To evaluate the prognostic value of the coefficient of variance of axial light loss of monocytes (cv-ALL of monocytes) for adverse clinical outcomes in patients suspected of infection in the emergency department (ED).

Methods

We performed an observational, retrospective monocenter study including all medical patients ≥18 years admitted to the ED between September 2016 and June 2019 with suspected infection. Adverse clinical outcomes included 30-day mortality and ICU/MCU admission <3 days after presentation. We determined the additional value of monocyte cv-ALL and compared to frequently used clinical prediction scores (SIRS, qSOFA, MEWS). Next, we developed a clinical model with routinely available parameters at the ED, including cv-ALL of monocytes.

Results

A total of 3526 of patients were included. The OR for cv-ALL of monocytes alone was 2.21 (1.98–2.47) for 30-day mortality and 2.07 (1.86–2.29) for ICU/MCU admission <3 days after ED presentation. When cv-ALL of monocytes was combined with a clinical score, the prognostic accuracy increased significantly for all tested scores (SIRS, qSOFA, MEWS). The maximum AUC for a model with routinely available parameters at the ED was 0.81 to predict 30-day mortality and 0.81 for ICU/MCU admission.

Conclusions

Cv-ALL of monocytes is a readily available biomarker that is useful as prognostic marker to predict 30-day mortality. Furthermore, it can be used to improve routine prediction of adverse clinical outcomes at the ED.

Clinical trial registration

Registered in the Dutch Trial Register (NTR) und number 6916.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence for COVID-19 Diagnosis Through Blood Test Variables

This work proposes an explainable artificial intelligence approach to help diagnose COVID-19 patients based on blood test and pathogen variables. Two glass-box models, logistic regression and explainable boosting machine, and two black-box models, random forest and support vector machine, were used to assess the disease diagnosis. Shapley additive explanations were used to explain predictions for the black-box models, while glass-box models feature importance brought insights into the most relevant features. All global explanations show the eosinophils and leukocytes, white blood cells are among the essential features to help diagnose the COVID-19. Moreover, the best model obtained an AUC of 0.87.

Quantifying the impact of addressing data challenges in prediction of length of stay

BACKGROUND

Prediction of length of stay (LOS) at admission time can provide physicians and nurses insight into the illness severity of patients and aid them in avoiding adverse events and clinical deterioration. It also assists hospitals with more effectively managing their resources and manpower.

METHODS

In this field of research, there are some important challenges, such as missing values and LOS data skewness. Moreover, various studies use a binary classification which puts a wide range of patients with different conditions into one category. To address these shortcomings, first multivariate imputation techniques are applied to fill incomplete records, then two proper resampling techniques, namely Borderline-SMOTE and SMOGN, are applied to address data skewness in the classification and regression domains, respectively. Finally, machine learning (ML) techniques including neural networks, extreme gradient boosting, random forest, support vector machine, and decision tree are implemented for both approaches to predict LOS of patients admitted to the Emergency Department of Odense University Hospital between June 2018 and April 2019. The ML models are developed based on data obtained from patients at admission time, including pulse rate, arterial blood oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, triage category, arrival ICD-10 codes, age, and gender.

RESULTS

The performance of predictive models before and after addressing missing values and data skewness is evaluated using four evaluation metrics namely receiver operating characteristic, area under the curve (AUC), R-squared score (R2), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE). Results show that the performance of predictive models is improved on average by 15.75% for AUC, 32.19% for R2 score, and 11.32% for NRMSE after addressing the mentioned challenges. Moreover, our results indicate that there is a relationship between the missing values rate, data skewness, and illness severity of patients, so it is clinically essential to take incomplete records of patients into account and apply proper solutions for interpolation of missing values.

CONCLUSION

We propose a new method comprised of three stages: missing values imputation, data skewness handling, and building predictive models based on classification and regression approaches. Our results indicated that addressing these challenges in a proper way enhanced the performance of models significantly, which led to a more valid prediction of LOS.

Predicting Prolonged Hospitalization and Supplemental Oxygenation in Patients with COVID-19 Infection from Ambulatory Chest Radiographs using Deep Learning

Rationale and Objectives

The clinical prognosis of outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains difficult to predict, with outcomes including asymptomatic, hospitalization, intubation, and death. Here we determined the prognostic value of an outpatient chest radiograph, together with an ensemble of deep learning algorithms predicting comorbidities and airspace disease to identify patients at a higher risk of hospitalization from COVID-19 infection.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective study included outpatients with COVID-19 confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction testing who received an ambulatory chest radiography between March 17, 2020 and October 24, 2020. In this study, full admission was defined as hospitalization within 14 days of the COVID-19 test for > 2 days with supplemental oxygen. Univariate analysis and machine learning algorithms were used to evaluate the relationship between the deep learning model predictions and hospitalization for > 2 days.

Results

The study included 413 patients, 222 men (54%), with a median age of 51 years (interquartile range, 39–62 years). Fifty-one patients (12.3%) required full admission. A boosted decision tree model produced the best prediction. Variables included patient age, frontal chest radiograph predictions of morbid obesity, congestive heart failure and cardiac arrhythmias, and radiographic opacity, with an internally validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.837 (95% CI: 0.791–0.883) on a test cohort.

Conclusion

Deep learning analysis of single frontal chest radiographs was used to generate combined comorbidity and pneumonia scores that predict the need for supplemental oxygen and hospitalization for > 2 days in patients with COVID-19 infection with an AUC of 0.837 (95% confidence interval: 0.791–0.883). Comorbidity scoring may prove useful in other clinical scenarios.

Prediction of Sepsis Related Mortality: An Optimization Approach

Sepsis is a condition that progresses quickly and is a major cause of mortality in hospitalized patients. Data-driven diagnostic and therapeutic interventions are essential to ensure early diagnosis and appropriate care. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is widely utilized in clinical practice to assess septic patients for organ dysfunction. The SOFA score uses points between 0 and 4 to quantify the level of dysfunction in six organ systems. These points are determined based on expert opinion and not informed by data, thus their usefulness can vary among different medical institutions depending on the targeted use. In this study, we propose multiple strategies to adjust the SOFA score using mixed-integer programming to improve the in-hospital mortality prediction of septic patients based on Electronic Health Records (EHRs). We use the same variables and threshold values of the original SOFA score in each strategy. Thus, the proposed approach takes advantage of optimization and data analysis while taking into account the medical expertise. Our results demonstrate a statistically significant improvement (p<0.001) in the prediction of in-hospital mortality among patients susceptible to sepsis when implementing our proposed strategies. Area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) and accuracy values of 0.8928 and 0.8904 are achieved by optimizing the point values of the SOFA score.

Comparison of pediatric scoring systems for mortality in septic patients and the impact of missing information on their predictive power: a retrospective analysis

Background

Scores can assess the severity and course of disease and predict outcome in an objective manner. This information is needed for proper risk assessment and stratification. Furthermore, scoring systems support optimal patient care, resource management and are gaining in importance in terms of artificial intelligence.

Objective

This study evaluated and compared the prognostic ability of various common pediatric scoring systems (PRISM, PRISM III, PRISM IV, PIM, PIM2, PIM3, PELOD, PELOD 2) in order to determine which is the most applicable score for pediatric sepsis patients in terms of timing of disease survey and insensitivity to missing data.

Methods

We retrospectively examined data from 398 patients under 18 years of age, who were diagnosed with sepsis. Scores were assessed at ICU admission and re-evaluated on the day of peak C-reactive protein. The scores were compared for their ability to predict mortality in this specific patient population and for their impairment due to missing data.

Results

PIM (AUC 0.76 (0.68-0.76)), PIM2 (AUC 0.78 (0.72-0.78)) and PIM3 (AUC 0.76 (0.68-0.76)) scores together with PRSIM III (AUC 0.75 (0.68-0.75)) and PELOD 2 (AUC 0.75 (0.66-0.75)) are the most suitable scores for determining patient prognosis at ICU admission. Once sepsis is pronounced, PELOD 2 (AUC 0.84 (0.77-0.91)) and PRISM IV (AUC 0.8 (0.72-0.88)) become significantly better in their performance and count among the best prognostic scores for use at this time together with PRISM III (AUC 0.81 (0.73-0.89)). PELOD 2 is good for monitoring and, like the PIM scores, is also largely insensitive to missing values.

Conclusion

Overall, PIM scores show comparatively good performance, are stable as far as timing of the disease survey is concerned, and they are also relatively stable in terms of missing parameters. PELOD 2 is best suitable for monitoring clinical course.