Risk scores did not reliably predict individual risk of mortality for patients with decompensated heart failure

Incremental prognostic value of functional impairment assessed by 6-min walking test for the prediction of mortality in heart failure

Natriuretic peptides (NP) are recognized as the most powerful predictors of adverse outcomes in heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that a measure of functional limitation, as assessed by 6-min walking test (6MWT), would improve the accuracy of a prognostic model incorporating a NP. This was a multicenter observational retrospective study. We studied the prognostic value of severe functional impairment (SFI), defined as the inability to perform a 6MWT or a distance walked during a 6MWT < 300 m, in 1696 patients with HF admitted to cardiac rehabilitation. The primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality. After adjusting for the baseline multivariable risk model-including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, anemia, renal dysfunction, sodium level, and NT-proBNP-or for the MAGGIC score, SFI had an odds ratio of 2.58 (95% CI 1.72-3.88; p < 0.001) and 3.12 (95% CI 2.16-4.52; p < 0.001), respectively. Adding SFI to the baseline risk model or the MAGGIC score yielded a significant improvement in discrimination and risk classification. Our data suggest that a simple, 6MWT-derived measure of SFI is a strong predictor of death and provide incremental prognostic information over well-established risk markers in HF, including NP, and the MAGGIC score.

Usefulness of HANBAH Score in Japanese Patients With Acute Heart Failure

The HANBAH score is a novel simple risk score consisting of hemoglobin level, age, sodium (N) level, blood urea nitrogen level, atrial fibrillation, and high-density lipoprotein. We aimed to validate this score in an external population. This retrospective study included 744 patients hospitalized for acute heart failure between 2015 and 2019. Each of the following criteria was scored as 1 point: hemoglobin level (<13.0 g/L for men and <12.0 g/L for women), atrial fibrillation, age (>70 years), serum blood urea nitrogen level (>26 mg/100 ml for men and >28 mg/100 ml for women), serum high-density lipoprotein level (<25 mg/100 ml), and serum sodium level (<135 mg/100 ml). HANBAH scores were available for 736 patients (age, 75 ± 13 years; 60% male; reduced [<40%] and preserved ejection fraction [≥50%]: 35% and 49%, respectively). All-cause death during follow-up, a composite of death and heart failure rehospitalization, and in-hospital death were observed in 173, 274, and 51 patients, respectively. The HANBAH score was significantly associated with these end points after adjustment for covariates (adjusted hazard ratio 1.38 [95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.64], p <0.001; 1.27 [1.11 to 1.45], p <0.001; and 1.66 [1.18 to 2.33], p <0.001, respectively). Receiver operating characteristic and net reclassification improvement analyses showed that the HANBAH score performed significantly better than AHEAD (atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin [anemia], elderly, abnormal renal parameters, diabetes mellitus) and AHEAD-U (AHEAD with uric acid) scores and similar to the multi-domain ACUTE HF score for all end points. In conclusion, the HANBAH score showed powerful risk stratification in this external Japanese cohort. Despite its simplicity, it performed better than other simple risk scores and similar to a multidomain risk score.

The EPICTER score: a bedside and easy tool to predict mortality at 6 months in acute heart failure

Aims

Estimating the prognosis in heart failure (HF) is important to decide when to refer to palliative care (PC). Our objective was to develop a tool to identify the probability of death within 6 months in patients admitted with acute HF.

Methods and results

A total of 2848 patients admitted with HF in 74 Spanish hospitals were prospectively included and followed for 6 months. Each factor independently associated with death in the derivation cohort (60% of the sample) was assigned a prognostic weight, and a risk score was calculated. The accuracy of the score was verified in the validation cohort. The characteristics of the population were as follows: advanced age (mean 78 years), equal representation of men and women, significant comorbidity, and predominance of HF with preserved ejection fraction. During follow‐up, 753 patients (26%) died. Seven independent predictors of mortality were identified: age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cognitive impairment, New York Heart Association class III–IV, chronic kidney disease, estimated survival of the patient less than 6 months, and acceptance of a palliative approach by the family or the patient. The area under the ROC curve for 6 month death was 0.74 for the derivation and 0.68 for the validation cohort. The model showed good calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow test, P value 0.11). The 6 month death rates in the score groups ranged from 6% (low risk) to 54% (very high risk).

Conclusions

The EPICTER score, developed from a prospective and unselected cohort, is a bedside and easy‐to‐use tool that could help to identify high‐risk patients requiring PC.

SOFA score and short-term mortality in acute decompensated heart failure

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is one of the leading causes for hospitalization and mortality. Identifying high risk patients is essential to ensure proper management. Sequential Organ Function Assessment Score (SOFA) is considered an excellent score to predict short-term mortality in sepsis and other life-threatening conditions. To assess the capability of SOFA score in predicting short-term mortality in ADHF. We retrospectively identified patients with first hospitalization with primary diagnosis of ADHF between the years (2008–2018). The SOFA score was calculated for all patients. A total 3232 patients were included in the study. The SOFA score was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality. The odds ratios for 1-point increase in the SOFA score were 1.86 (95% CI 1.68–1.96) and 1.627 (95% CI 1.523–1.737) respectively. The SOFA Score demonstrated a good predictive accuracy. The areas under the curve of receiver operating characteristic curves for in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality were 0.765 (95% CI 0.733–0.798) and 0.706 (95% CI 0.676–0.736) respectively. SOFA score is associated with increased risk of short-term mortality in ADHF. SOFA can be used as a complementary risk score to screen high risk patients who need strict monitoring.