Allocation of scarce resources in a pandemic: rapid systematic review update of strategies for policymakers

The Impact of COVID-19 on Healthcare Utilization in Turkey

OBJECTIVES

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare utilization in Turkey.

METHODS

We utilized individual-level data derived from Turkish Statistical Institute's annual surveys between 2014 and 2022 and estimated probit regression models.

RESULTS

We find that COVID-19 pandemic reduced healthcare utilization by 11.8% after taking into account a large set of background variables. Although our study finds that the elderly and those with health problems are more likely to use healthcare services under normal circumstances, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused notable drops in the healthcare utilization among the elderly (-6.5%) and those with health problems (-3.8%). Although those without health insurance had lower utilization of healthcare services before the pandemic, during the pandemic they were not particularly hit.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that the pandemic did not lower the healthcare utilization in Turkey because of the supply constraints. Also, the evidence points to the reduced demand due to the fear of contagion rather than financial concerns.

Building Case Investigation and Contact Tracing Programs in US State and Local Health Departments: A Conceptual Framework

OBJECTIVE

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to this day, US state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments lacked comprehensive case investigation and contact tracing (CI/CT) guidelines that clearly define the capabilities and capacities of CI/CT programs and how to scale up these programs to respond to outbreaks. This research aims to identify the capabilities and capacities of CI/CT programs and to develop a conceptual framework that represents the relationships between these program components.

METHODS

This study conducted a narrative literature review and qualitative interviews with 10 US state and local health departments and 4 public health experts to identify and characterize the capacities and capabilities of CI/CT programs.

RESULTS

This research resulted in the first comprehensive analysis of the capabilities and capacities of CI/CT programs and a conceptual framework that illustrates the interrelationships between the capacities, capabilities, outcomes, and impacts of CI/CT programs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the need for further guidance to assist jurisdictional health departments in shifting CI/CT program goals as outbreaks evolve. Training the public health workforce on making decisions around CI/CT program implementation during outbreaks is critical to ensure readiness for a variety of outbreak scenarios.

Lessons Learned from a Global Perspective of Coronavirus Disease-2019

Coronavirus disease-2019 has impacted the world globally. Countries and health care organizations across the globe responded to this unprecedented public health crisis in a varied manner in terms of public health and social measures, vaccination development and rollout, the conduct of research, developments of therapeutics, sharing of information, and in how they continue to deal with the widespread aftermath. This article reviews the various elements of the global response to the pandemic, focusing on the lessons learned and strategies to consider during future pandemics.

Minimising population health loss in times of scarce surgical capacity: a modelling study for surgical procedures performed in nonacademic hospitals

BACKGROUND

The burden of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a reduction of available health care capacity for regular care. To guide prioritisation of semielective surgery in times of scarcity, we previously developed a decision model to quantify the expected health loss due to delay of surgery, in an academic hospital setting. The aim of this study is to validate our decision model in a nonacademic setting and include additional elective surgical procedures.

METHODS

In this study, we used the previously published three-state cohort state-transition model, to evaluate the health effects of surgery postponement for 28 surgical procedures commonly performed in nonacademic hospitals. Scientific literature and national registries yielded nearly all input parameters, except for the quality of life (QoL) estimates which were obtained from experts using the Delphi method. Two expert panels, one from a single nonacademic hospital and one from different nonacademic hospitals in the Netherlands, were invited to estimate QoL weights. We compared estimated model results (disability adjusted life years (DALY)/month of surgical delay) based on the QoL estimates from the two panels by calculating the mean difference and the correlation between the ranks of the different surgical procedures. The eventual model was based on the combined QoL estimates from both panels.

RESULTS

Pacemaker implantation was associated with the most DALY/month of surgical delay (0.054 DALY/month, 95% CI: 0.025-0.103) and hemithyreoidectomy with the least DALY/month (0.006 DALY/month, 95% CI: 0.002-0.009). The overall mean difference of QoL estimates between the two panels was 0.005 (95% CI -0.014-0.004). The correlation between ranks was 0.983 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides an overview of incurred health loss due to surgical delay for surgeries frequently performed in nonacademic hospitals. The quality of life estimates currently used in our model are robust and validate towards a different group of experts. These results enrich our earlier published results on academic surgeries and contribute to prioritising a more complete set of surgeries.

Determining the spatial distribution of environmental and socio-economic suitability for human leptospirosis in the face of limited epidemiological data

Background

Leptospirosis is among the leading zoonotic causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Knowledge about spatial patterns of diseases and their underlying processes have the potential to guide intervention efforts. However, leptospirosis is often an underreported and misdiagnosed disease and consequently, spatial patterns of the disease remain unclear. In the absence of accurate epidemiological data in the urban agglomeration of Santa Fe, we used a knowledge-based index and cluster analysis to identify spatial patterns of environmental and socioeconomic suitability for the disease and potential underlying processes that shape them.

Methods

We geocoded human leptospirosis cases derived from the Argentinian surveillance system during the period 2010 to 2019. Environmental and socioeconomic databases were obtained from satellite images and publicly available platforms on the web. Two sets of human leptospirosis determinants were considered according to the level of their support by the literature and expert knowledge. We used the Zonation algorithm to build a knowledge-based index and a clustering approach to identify distinct potential sets of determinants. Spatial similarity and correlations between index, clusters, and incidence rates were evaluated.

Results

We were able to geocode 56.36% of the human leptospirosis cases reported in the national epidemiological database. The knowledge-based index showed the suitability for human leptospirosis in the UA Santa Fe increased from downtown areas of the largest cities towards peri-urban and suburban areas. Cluster analysis revealed downtown areas were characterized by higher levels of socioeconomic conditions. Peri-urban and suburban areas encompassed two clusters which differed in terms of environmental determinants. The highest incidence rates overlapped areas with the highest suitability scores, the strength of association was low though (CSc r = 0.21, P < 0.001 and ESc r = 0.19, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

We present a method to analyze the environmental and socioeconomic suitability for human leptospirosis based on literature and expert knowledge. The methodology can be thought as an evolutive and perfectible scheme as more studies are performed in the area and novel information regarding determinants of the disease become available. Our approach can be a valuable tool for decision-makers since it can serve as a baseline to plan intervention measures.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-01010-x.