Disagreement Between Different Definitions of Coronary Artery Calcium Progression

Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification and Risk of Clinical Events in CKD: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) progresses rapidly in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) compared with the general population. We studied the association between CAC progression and higher risks of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), congestive heart failure, and all-cause mortality among adults with CKD.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

& Participants: 1,310 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study who had at least one CAC scan with no prior history of CVD and with observed or imputed data on changes in CAC over time.

EXPOSURE

Observed or imputed CAC progression, categorized as incident CAC among participants with zero CAC on the baseline scan, or progressive CAC when the baseline scan demonstrated CAC and there was an increase in CAC ≥50 Agatston units per year.

OUTCOMES

Atherosclerotic CVD (myocardial infarction or stroke), congestive heart failure, and all-cause mortality.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression, stratified by presence of CAC at baseline.

RESULTS

A total of 545 participants without and 765 with prevalent CAC at baseline were included. During a mean 3.3 years between CAC assessments, 177 (32.5%) participants without baseline CAC developed incident CAC while 270 participants (35.3%) with baseline CAC developed a ≥50 Agatston units per year increase in CAC. After multivariable adjustment, incident CAC was associated with 2.42-fold higher rate of atherosclerotic CVD (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-4.79) and 1.82-fold higher rate of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 1.03-3.22). Progressive CAC (≥50 units per year) was not associated with atherosclerotic CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42; 95% CI: 0.85-2.35) but was associated with a 1.73-fold higher rate of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 1.31-2.28). Progressive CAC was not associated with incident heart failure.

LIMITATIONS

Residual confounding and limited statistical power for some outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adults with CKD stages 2-4, CAC progression over a mean 3.3 years was associated with higher risk of atherosclerotic CVD and all-cause mortality. The associations were strongest among participants without CAC at baseline.

Ten-year trajectory of coronary artery calcification and risk of cardiovascular outcomes: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

Whether and how coronary artery calcium (CAC) progress contributes to cardiovascular outcomes has not been fully elucidated. The aim of this study was to identify different patterns of CAC change and evaluate the associations with different cardiovascular outcomes.

Methods

Data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study were analyzed. Participants with at least three CT measurements were included. The main study outcome is hard cardiovascular disease (CVD). CAC scores were determined as phantom-adjusted Agatston scores. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify latent groups and estimated the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional regression models.

Results

A total of 3,616 participants were finally enrolled [mean age 60.55 (SD 9.54) years, 47.76% men and 39.30% Caucasian]. Four distinct trajectories in CAC were identified: class 1, low-stable (24.17%); class 2, low-increasing (27.60%); class 3, moderate-increasing (30.56%); and class 4, elevated-increasing (17.67%). During 13.58 (SD 2.25) years of follow-up, 291 cases of hard CVD occurred. The event rates of hard CVD per 1,000 person-years were 2.23 (95% CI 1.53-3.25), 4.60 (95% CI 3.60-5.89), 7.67 (95% CI 6.38-9.21) and 10.37 (95% CI 8.41-12.80) for classes 1-4, respectively. Compared to participants assigned to class 1, the full-adjusted HRs of hard CVD for classes 2-4 were 2.10 (95% CI 1.33-3.01), 3.17 (95% CI 2.07-4.87), and 4.30 (95% CI 2.73-6.78), respectively. The graded positive associations with hard CVD were consistently observed in subgroups of age, sex, and race, with the presence or absence of hypertension or diabetes. By analyzing potential risk factors for distinctive CAC trajectories, risk factors for the onset and progression of CAC could possibly differ: age, male sex, history of hypertension, and diabetes are consistently associated with the low-, moderate-, and elevated-increasing trajectories. However, Caucasian race, cigarette smoking, and a higher body mass index was related only to risk of progression but not to incident CAC.

Conclusion

In this multi-ethnic population-based cohort, four unique trajectories in CAC change over a 10-year span were identified. These findings signal an underlying high-risk population and may inspire future studies on risk management.

Physical Activity and Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Men and Women

Importance

Prior cross-sectional studies have suggested that very high levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with a higher prevalence of coronary artery calcium (CAC). However, less is known regarding the association between high-volume PA and progression of CAC over time.

Objective

To explore the association between PA (measured at baseline and during follow-up) and the progression of CAC over time.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included data from 8771 apparently healthy men and women 40 years and older who had multiple preventive medicine visits at the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, Texas), with a mean (SD) follow-up time of 7.8 (4.7) years between the first and last clinic visit. Participants with reported PA and CAC measurements at each visit during 1998 to 2019 were included in the study. Data were analyzed from March 2023 to February 2024.

Exposures

PA reported at baseline and follow-up, examined continuously per 500 metabolic equivalent of task minutes per week (MET-min/wk) and categorically: less than 1500, 1500 to 2999, 3000 or more MET-min/wk.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the rate of mean CAC progression between visits, with potential modification by PA volume, calculated as the mean of PA at baseline and follow-up. In addition, proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for baseline PA as a predictor of CAC progression to 100 or more Agatston units (AU).

Results

Among 8771 participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 50.2 (7.3) years for men and 51.1 (7.3) years for women. The rate of mean CAC progression per year from baseline was 28.5% in men and 32.1% in women, independent of mean PA during the same time period. That is, the difference in the rate of CAC progression per year was 0.0% per 500 MET-min/wk for men and women (men: 95% CI, -0.1% to 0.1%; women: 95% CI, -0.4% to 0.5%). Moreover, baseline PA was not associated with CAC progression to a clinically meaningful threshold of 100 AU or more over the follow-up period. The hazard ratio for a baseline PA value of 3000 or more MET-min/wk vs less than 1500 MET-min/wk to cross this threshold was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.08) in men and 1.16 (95% CI, 0.57 to 2.35) in women.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that PA volume was not associated with progression of CAC in a large cohort of healthy men and women who were initially free of overt cardiovascular disease.

GlycA Levels Independently Predict Coronary Artery Calcium Incidence and Progression in the ELSA-Brasil Cohort (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health)

Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory disease. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a marker of atherosclerotic disease events and mortality risk. Increased GlycA, an emerging marker of inflammation, is associated with a higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, there is conflicting evidence on whether GlycA predicts subclinical CAD progression. We hypothesized that GlycA can predict subclinical CAC incidence/progression in healthy participants. We included 2,690 ELSA-Brasil cohort participants without cardiovascular/chronic inflammatory disease not receiving statin therapy who had GlycA levels measured and 2 interval CAC assessments between 2010 and 2018. Multivariable logistic and linear regression models were computed to evaluate GlycA as a predictor of CAC incidence and progression. CAC incidence required a baseline CAC of 0. CAC progression required a baseline CAC >0. The mean age of participants was 48.6 ± 7.7 years, 56.7% were women, and 54.6% and 16.1% (429 of 2,690) were White and Black, respectively. The mean CAC interscan period was 5.1 ± 0.9 years, the mean GlycA level was 414.7 ± 65 μmol/L, and the incidence of CAC was 13.1% (280 of 2,129). The GlycA level odds ratio for CAC incidence was 1.002 (95% confidence interval 1.0005 to 1.005, p = 0.016), adjusted for demographics, lifestyle, a family history of early CAD (≤60 years), lipids, and co-morbidities. The GlycA (≤p25 vs ≥p75) odds ratio for CAC progression (Berry definition) was 1.77 (95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.96, p = 0.03) in a similar multivariable-adjusted model. Higher GlycA levels were associated with CAC incidence and progression in a healthy Brazilian cohort.

An Update on Coronary Artery Calcium Interpretation at Chest and Cardiac CT

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a marker of overall coronary atherosclerotic burden in an individual. As such, it is an important tool in cardiovascular risk stratification and preventive treatment of asymptomatic patients with unclear cardiovascular disease risk. Several guidelines have recommended the use of CAC testing in shared decision making between the clinician and patient. With recent updates in clinical management guidelines and broad recommendations for CAC, there is a need for concise updated information on CAC interpretation on traditional electrocardiographically gated scans and nongated thoracic scans. Important points to report when interpreting CAC scans include: the absolute Agatston score and the age, sex, and race-specific CAC percentile; general recommendations on time-to-rescan for individuals with a CAC score of 0; the number of vessels with CAC; the presence of CAC in the left main coronary artery; and specific highlighting of individuals with very high CAC scores of greater than 1000. When risk factor information is available, the 10-year coronary heart disease risk can also be easily assessed using the free online Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis risk score calculator. Recent improvements in standardizing the reporting of CAC findings across gated and nongated studies, such as the CAC Data and Reporting System, show promise for improving the widespread clinical value of CAC in clinical practice. © RSNA, 2021.

Predictors of coronary artery calcium incidence and progression: The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There are limited data on serial coronary artery calcium (CAC) assessments outside North American and European populations. We sought to investigate risk factors for CAC incidence and progression in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

METHODS

We included individuals with no prior cardiovascular disease and two CAC measurements in ELSA-Brasil. Incident CAC was defined as a baseline CAC of 0 followed by CAC >0 on the second study. CAC progression was defined according to multiple published criteria. We performed logistic and linear regression to identify risk factors for CAC incidence and progression. We also examined risk factor effect modification by baseline CAC (0 vs. >0).

RESULTS

A total of 2707 individuals were included (57% women, age 48.6 ± 7.7 years). Participants self-identified as white (55%), brown (24%), black (16%), Asian (4%) and Indigenous (1%). The mean period between CAC assessments was 5.1 ± 0.9 years. CAC incidence occurred in 282 (13.3%) of 2127 individuals with baseline CAC of 0. CAC progression occurred in 319 (55%) of 580 participants with baseline CAC >0. Risk factors for CAC incidence included older age, male sex, white race, hypertension, diabetes, higher BMI, smoking, lower HDL-C, higher LDL-C and triglycerides, and metabolic syndrome. Older age and elevated LDL-C were associated with CAC incidence, but not progression. Risk factors consistently associated with CAC progression were hypertension, diabetes, hypertriglyceridemia, and metabolic syndrome. On interaction testing, these four risk factors were more strongly associated with CAC progression as compared to CAC incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

CAC incidence was associated with multiple traditional risk factors, whereas the only risk factors associated with progression of CAC were hypertension, diabetes, hypertriglyceridemia, and metabolic syndrome.

Coronary Calcium Score and Cardiovascular Risk

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a highly specific feature of coronary atherosclerosis. On the basis of single-center and multicenter clinical and population-based studies with short-term and long-term outcomes data (up to 15-year follow-up), CAC scoring has emerged as a widely available, consistent, and reproducible means of assessing risk for major cardiovascular outcomes, especially useful in asymptomatic people for planning primary prevention interventions such as statins and aspirin. CAC testing in asymptomatic populations is cost effective across a broad range of baseline risk. This review summarizes evidence concerning CAC, including its pathobiology, modalities for detection, predictive role, use in prediction scoring algorithms, CAC progression, evidence that CAC changes the clinical approach to the patient and patient behavior, novel applications of CAC, future directions in scoring CAC scans, and new CAC guidelines.

Relationship of serum irisin levels to prevalence and progression of coronary artery calcification: A prospective, population-based study

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms by which exercise reduces the risk of coronary heart disease remain poorly understood. Irisin, an exercise-induced polypeptide secreted from skeletal muscles, is proposed to potentially mediate beneficial effects of exercise, especially in metabolic regulation and development of atherosclerosis. We examined whether higher serum irisin levels are associated with lower prevalence and progression of coronary atherosclerosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a prospective, population-based study of Japanese men aged 40-79 years without known coronary heart disease. We measured baseline serum irisin levels using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and quantified coronary artery calcification (CAC) from serial computed tomography scans. Of 1038 participants (mean age, 63.9 years) at baseline, 670 (64.6%) had prevalent CAC. Of 810 participants at follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 407 (50.3%) experienced CAC progression. In Poisson regression with robust error variance adjusted for age and behavioral factors, serum irisin levels were inversely associated with CAC prevalence (relative risk [RR] of 4th versus 1st quartiles [95% confidence interval], 0.88 [0.78-0.99]; trend P = 0.016) and CAC progression (RR, 0.76 [0.63-0.91]; trend P = 0.002). After further adjustment for cardiometabolic risk factors, the inverse association with CAC prevalence disappeared (RR, 0.95 [0.84-1.08]; trend P = 0.319), but that with CAC progression persisted (RR, 0.77 [0.64-0.93]; trend P = 0.003). These associations were consistent when we applied ordinal logistic regression and across subgroups by cardiometabolic risk factor status.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher serum irisin levels were associated with less burden of coronary atherosclerosis. This association would be mediated through and beyond traditional cardiometabolic pathways.

The Obesity Factor: How Cardiorespiratory Fitness is Estimated More Accurately in People with Obesity

OBJECTIVE

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing is clinically used to estimate cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). The relation to total body mass (TBM) leads to an underestimation of CRF in people with obesity and to inappropriate prognostic and therapeutic decisions. This study aimed to determine body composition-derived bias in the estimation of CRF in people with obesity.

METHODS

Two hundred eleven participants (58.8% women; mean BMI 35.7 kg/m² [± 6.94; 20.7-58.6]) were clinically examined, and body composition (InBody720; InBody Co., Ltd., Seoul, South Korea) and spiroergometrical peak oxygen consumption (VO₂ peak) were assessed. The impacts of TBM, lean body mass (LBM), and skeletal muscle mass (SMM) on CRF estimates were analyzed by the application of respective weight models. Linear regression and plotting of residuals against BMI were performed on the whole study population and two subgroups (BMI < 30 kg/m² and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² ).

RESULTS

For every weight model, Δmean VO₂ peak (expected - measured) was positive. LBM and SMM had a considerable impact on VO₂ peak demand (P = 0.001; ΔR²  = 2.3%; adjusted R²  = 56% and P = 0.001; ΔR² = 2.7%; adjusted R²  = 56%), whereas TBM did not. Confounding of body composition on VO₂ peak did not differ in LBM and SMM.

CONCLUSIONS

TBM-adjusted overestimation of relative VO₂ demand is much higher in people with obesity than in those without. LBM or SMM adjustment may be superior alternatives, although small residual body composition-derived bias remains.

Value of Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification for Risk Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Events: Result of the HNR Study (Heinz Nixdorf Recall)

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

Computed tomography (CT) allows estimation of coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression. We evaluated several progression algorithms in our unselected, population-based cohort for risk prediction of coronary and cardiovascular events.

Methods:

In 3281 participants (45–74 years of age), free from cardiovascular disease until the second visit, risk factors, and CTs at baseline (b) and after a mean of 5.1 years (5y) were measured. Hard coronary and cardiovascular events, and total cardiovascular events including revascularization, as well, were recorded during a follow-up time of 7.8±2.2 years after the second CT. The added predictive value of 10 CAC progression algorithms on top of risk factors including baseline CAC was evaluated by using survival analysis, C-statistics, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination index. A subgroup analysis of risk in CAC categories was performed.

Results:

We observed 85 (2.6%) hard coronary, 161 (4.9%) hard cardiovascular, and 241 (7.3%) total cardiovascular events. Absolute CAC progression was higher with versus without subsequent coronary events (median, 115 [Q1–Q3, 23–360] versus 8 [0–83], P<0.0001; similar for hard/total cardiovascular events). Some progression algorithms added to the predictive value of baseline CT and risk assessment in terms of C-statistic or integrated discrimination index, especially for total cardiovascular events. However, CAC progression did not improve models including CAC_5y and 5-year risk factors. An excellent prognosis was found for 921 participants with double-zero CAC_b=CAC_5y=0 (10-year coronary and hard/total cardiovascular risk: 1.4%, 2.0%, and 2.8%), which was for participants with incident CAC 1.8%, 3.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. When CAC_b progressed from 1 to 399 to CAC_5y≥400, coronary and total cardiovascular risk were nearly 2-fold in comparison with subjects who remained below CAC_5y=400. Participants with CAC_b≥400 had high rates of hard coronary and hard/total cardiovascular events (10-year risk: 12.0%, 13.5%, and 30.9%, respectively).

Conclusions:

CAC progression is associated with coronary and cardiovascular event rates, but adds only weakly to risk prediction. What counts is the most recent CAC value and risk factor assessment. Therefore, a repeat scan >5 years after the first scan may be of additional value, except when a double-zero CT scan is present or when the subjects are already at high risk.

Progression of CAC Score and Risk of Incident CVD

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to determine the relative contributions of baseline coronary artery calcification (CAC), follow-up CAC, and CAC progression on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD).

BACKGROUND

Repeat CAC scanning has been proposed as a method to track progression of total atherosclerotic burden. However, whether CAC progression is a useful predictor of future CVD events remains unclear.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 5,933 participants free of CVD who underwent 2 examinations, including CAC scores, and subsequent CVD event assessment. CAC progression was calculated using the square root method. The primary outcome was total CVD events (CVD death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal atherosclerotic stroke, coronary artery bypass surgery, percutaneous coronary intervention). Secondary outcomes included hard CVD events, total coronary heart disease (CHD) events, and hard CHD events.

RESULTS

CAC was detected at baseline in 2,870 individuals (48%). The average time between scans was 3.5 ± 2.0 years. After their second scan, 161 individuals experienced a total CVD event during a mean follow-up of 7.3 years. CAC progression was significantly associated with total CVD events (hazard ratio: 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.01 to 1.30 per interquartile range; p = 0.042) in the model including baseline CAC, but the contribution of CAC progression was small relative to baseline CAC (chi-square 4.16 vs. 65.92). Furthermore, CAC progression was not associated with total CVD events in the model including follow-up CAC instead of baseline CAC (hazard ratio: 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 0.92 to 1.21; p = 0.475). A model that included follow-up CAC alone performed as well as the model that included baseline CAC and CAC progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Although CAC progression was independently, but modestly, associated with CVD outcomes, this relationship was no longer significant when including follow-up CAC in the model. These findings imply that if serial CAC scanning is performed, the latest scan should be used for risk assessment, and in this context, CAC progression provides no additional prognostic information.

Cancer and Its Association With the Development of Coronary Artery Calcification: An Assessment From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Although cancer and its corresponding therapies are associated with increased ischemic heart disease, the temporal relationship between cancer and the development of coronary artery calcium (CAC), a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis, is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 3122 men and women free of cardiovascular disease and cancer in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis trial, CAC scoring was performed at baseline (2000-2002) and at follow-up (2010-2012). Over this 10-year period, 85 men (age 63.6±8.3 years) and 50 women (age 62.1±9.8 years) were diagnosed with cancer (predominantly breast, lung, or uterine [52%] in women and prostate or colorectal [78%] in men). The other 2987 subjects (age 59.6±9.2 years for men, 59.7±9.4 years for women) remained cancer free. The incidence of new CAC (baseline Agatston score of zero converting to detectable CAC) was modeled with relative risk regression and compared for cancer versus no cancer. Increase in pre-existing CAC was compared in these groups using linear regression of log transformed CAC. The incidence of CAC was independently associated with cancer history (relative risk 1.32 [P=0.04] and 1.29 [P=0.01] for women and men, respectively). In participants with CAC at baseline, a clear difference of CAC progression was not observed between cancer and noncancer participants (P=0.6 for women, P=0.2 for men).

CONCLUSIONS

A diagnosis of cancer is associated with the development of CAC even after accounting for atherosclerotic risk factors. However, in individuals with pre-existing CAC, it is not clear whether the presence of cancer accelerates CAC over time.