Outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to a specialty liver intensive care unit in India

Artificial intelligence: Applications in critical care gastroenterology

Gastrointestinal (GI) complications frequently necessitate intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Additionally, critically ill patients also develop GI complications requiring further diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. However, these patients form a vulnerable group, who are at risk for developing side effects and complications. Every effort must be made to reduce invasiveness and ensure safety of interventions in ICU patients. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly evolving technology with several potential applications in healthcare settings. ICUs produce a large amount of data, which may be employed for creation of AI algorithms, and provide a lucrative opportunity for application of AI. However, the current role of AI in these patients remains limited due to lack of large-scale trials comparing the efficacy of AI with the accepted standards of care.

Etiological Spectrum of Cirrhosis in India: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality globally and in India. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to ascertain the etiological spectrum and changing trends of cirrhosis in India.

METHODS

We searched electronic databases, including Pubmed/Medline, Scopus, and Embase. We included original studies that reported the etiology of cirrhosis in the Indian population.

RESULTS

We included 158 studies (adults: 147, children: 11). The overall pooled estimate of alcohol as a cause of cirrhosis in adults was 43.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 39.8-46.6%; I2 = 97.8%), followed by nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/cryptogenic in 14.4%, 95% CI (11.7-17.3%; I2 = 98.4%), hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 11.5%, 95% CI (9.8-13.3%; I2 = 96.6%), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 6.2%, 95% CI (4.8-7.8%; I2 = 97.2%) of the included patients. The most common cause of cirrhosis in all zones was alcohol-related. Comparison of etiologies over time revealed a reduction in the viral hepatitis-related and an increase in the proportion of alcohol-related and NAFLD/cryptogenic-related cirrhosis. The overall pooled estimates of various etiologies in children were: HBV in 10.7%, 95% CI (4.6-18.7%; I2 = 91.0%), NAFLD/Cryptogenic in 22.3%, 95% CI (9.0-39.2%; I2 = 96.7%), and HCV in 2.0%, 95% CI (0.0-8.5%; I2 = 94.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol is the most common etiology of cirrhosis in adults in India. The proportions of alcohol and NAFLD-related cirrhosis are increasing, and those of viral hepatitis-related cirrhosis are reducing. The results of our meta-analysis will help formulate health policies and the allocation of resources.

LIV-4: A novel model for predicting transplant-free survival in critically ill cirrhotics

BACKGROUND

Critically ill patients with cirrhosis, particularly those with acute decompensation, have higher mortality rates in the intensive care unit (ICU) than patients without chronic liver disease. Prognostication of short-term mortality is important in order to identify patients at highest risk of death. None of the currently available prognostic models have been widely accepted for use in cirrhotic patients in the ICU, perhaps due to complexity of calculation, or lack of universal variables readily available for these patients. We believe a survival model meeting these requirements can be developed, to guide therapeutic decision-making and contribute to cost-effective healthcare resource utilization.

AIM

To identify markers that best identify likelihood of survival and to determine the performance of existing survival models.

METHODS

Consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to a United States quaternary care center ICU between 2008-2014 were included and comprised the training cohort. Demographic data and clinical laboratory test collected on admission to ICU were analyzed. Area under the curve receiver operator characteristics (AUROC) analysis was performed to assess the value of various scores in predicting in-hospital mortality. A new predictive model, the LIV-4 score, was developed using logistic regression analysis and validated in a cohort of patients admitted to the same institution between 2015-2017.

RESULTS

Of 436 patients, 119 (27.3%) died in the hospital. In multivariate analysis, a combination of the natural logarithm of the bilirubin, prothrombin time, white blood cell count, and mean arterial pressure was found to most accurately predict in-hospital mortality. Derived from the regression coefficients of the independent variables, a novel model to predict inpatient mortality was developed (the LIV-4 score) and performed with an AUROC of 0.86, compared to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Royal Free Hospital Score, which performed with AUROCs of 0.81, 0.80, and 0.77, respectively. Patients in the internal validation cohort were substantially sicker, as evidenced by higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III, SOFA and LIV-4 scores. Despite these differences, the LIV-4 score remained significantly higher in subjects who expired during the hospital stay and exhibited good prognostic values in the validation cohort with an AUROC of 0.80.

CONCLUSION

LIV-4, a validated model for predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients on admission to the ICU, performs better than alternative liver and ICU-specific survival scores.

A population-based cohort study of mortality of intensive care unit patients with liver cirrhosis

Background

The impact of liver cirrhosis on the outcomes of admission to intensive care unit (ICU) is not completely understood. Our purpose is to identify risk factors for mortality in ICU patients with liver cirrhosis.

Methods

Using reimbursement claims from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database from in 2006–2012, 1,250,300 patients were identified as having ICU stays of more than 1 day, and 37,197 of these had liver cirrhosis. With propensity score-matching for socioeconomic status, pre-existing medical conditions, and cirrhosis-related morbidities, 37,197 ICU patients without liver cirrhosis were selected for comparison. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of cirrhosis associated with 30-day, ICU, and one-year mortality were calculated.

Results

Compared with control, cirrhotic patients had higher 30-day mortality (aOR 1.60, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.68), particularly those with jaundice (aOR 2.23, 95% CI 2.03 to 2.45), ascites (aOR 2.32, 95% CI 2.19 to 2.46) or hepatic coma (aOR 2.21, 95% CI 2.07 to 2.36). Among ICU patients, liver cirrhosis was also associated with ICU mortality (aOR 144, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.51) and one-year mortality (aOR 1.40, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.46). Associations between cirrhosis of liver and increased 30-day mortality were significant in both sexes and every age group.

Conclusions

Liver cirrhosis was associated with 30-day mortality in ICU patients. Jaundice, ascites, hepatic coma, more than 4 admissions due to cirrhosis, and more than 30 days of hospital stay due to cirrhosis were exacerbated factors in cirrhotic ICU patients.

Prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care unit: a meta-analysis

Background

The best predictors of short- and medium-term mortality of cirrhotic patients receiving intensive care support are unknown.

Methods

We conducted meta-analyses from 13 studies (2523 cirrhotics) after selection of original articles and response to a standardized questionnaire by the corresponding authors. End-points were in-ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month mortality in ICU survivors. A total of 301 pooled analyses, including 95 analyses restricted to 6-month mortality among ICU survivors, were conducted considering 249 variables (including reason for admission, organ replacement therapy, and composite prognostic scores).

Results

In-ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month mortality was 42.7, 54.1, and 75.1%, respectively. Forty-eight patients (3.8%) underwent liver transplantation during follow-up. In-ICU mortality was lower in patients admitted for variceal bleeding (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.36–0.59; p < 0.001) and higher in patients with SOFA > 19 at baseline (OR 8.54; 95% CI 2.09–34.91; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.93). High SOFA no longer predicted mortality at 6 months in ICU survivors. Twelve variables related to infection were predictors of in-ICU mortality, including SIRS (OR 2.44; 95% CI 1.64–3.65; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.57), pneumonia (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.47–3.22; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.69), sepsis-associated refractory oliguria (OR 10.61; 95% CI 4.07–27.63; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.76), and fungal infection (OR 4.38; 95% CI 1.11–17.24; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.85). Among therapeutics, only dopamine (OR 5.57; 95% CI 3.02–10.27; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.68), dobutamine (OR 8.92; 95% CI 3.32–23.96; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.86), epinephrine (OR 5.03; 95% CI 2.68–9.42; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.77), and MARS (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.22–3.53; p = 0.007; PPV = 0.58) were associated with in-ICU mortality without heterogeneity. In ICU survivors, eight markers of liver and renal failure predicted 6-month mortality, including Child–Pugh stage C (OR 2.43; 95% CI 1.44–4.10; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.57), baseline MELD > 26 (OR 3.97; 95% CI 1.92–8.22; p < 0.0001; PPV = 0.75), and hepatorenal syndrome (OR 4.67; 95% CI 1.24–17.64; p = 0.022; PPV = 0.88).

Conclusions

Prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU is poor since only a minority undergo liver transplant. The prognostic performance of general ICU scores decreases over time, unlike the Child–Pugh and MELD scores, even recorded in the context of organ failure. Infection-related parameters had a short-term impact, whereas liver and renal failure had a sustained impact on mortality.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13613-017-0249-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predicting mortality of patients with cirrhosis admitted to medical intensive care unit: An experience of a single tertiary center

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to a medical intensive care unit (MICU) is poor and no previous studies have been published from Qatar or other countries in the region to investigate this issue. The objective of this study was to assess the predictors for in-hospital mortality and admission of cirrhotic patients to MICU in a single tertiary hospital in Qatar.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All adult cirrhotic MICU patients hospitalized from 2007 through 2012 to Hamad General Hospital-Qatar were included. We compared them to cirrhotic patients admitted to medical wards during same period of time. All data were recorded and analyzed with respect to demographic parameters, clinical features and laboratory as well as radiology characteristics on day one of admission to MICU. Cirrhosis diagnosis was established either with a liver biopsy or the combination of physical, laboratory and radiologic findings. Predictors of mortality were defined by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 109 cirrhotic MICU patients (86.2% males), and their mean age±SD was 51.6±11.5. MICU-cirrhotic patients had longer hospital stays than medical wards-cirrhotic patients (p=0.01). Admission with severe hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding and SOFA (Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment) score were the independent predicting factors for MICU admission. Mortality was higher for the MICU-cirrhotic group than medical wards group (27 (24.8%) deaths vs. 12 (5.3%) deaths, respectively, p=0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analyses, older age>60years (p=0.04), APACH-II score (p=0.001) and MELD score (p=0.02) were independent predicting factors for overall mortality.

CONCLUSION

Severe hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding and SOFA score predict MICU admission of cirrhotic patients. Among MICU cirrhotic patients, older age, APACH-II score and MELD score predict mortality.

Which risk-adjustment index performs better in predicting 30-day mortality? A systematic review and meta-analysis

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Individual comparisons of the performance of risk-adjustment indices have been widely conducted. Few reviews have been conducted to summarize the performance of different risk-adjustment indices. A 30-day mortality rate is widely used to evaluate the quality of care in hospitals by federal agencies like the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. This study examined relative performance of risk-adjustment indices that predict 30-day mortality.

METHODS

Databases including Medline, PubMed and PsycINFO were searched for studies that compared risk-adjustment indices. The search protocol included comparative studies in which the performance of risk-adjustment indices were compared across any defined cohort to compare 30-day mortality, including mortality within 30 days and intensive care unit mortality, which lasts less than 30 days. Data were extracted using a structured form and abstract data included author and publication year, population studied (including location, sample size, study time period), comparison indices, outcome studied, results and conclusions from the results. A meta-analytical approach was used to summarize all the studies. Scaled ranking score was used to estimate the relative superiority of any given risk-adjustment indices. A hypergeometric test was carried out to evaluate the performance of risk-adjustment measures.

RESULTS

Out of 2805 studies identified, 23 studies met the eligibility criteria. Main risk-adjustment indices used for comparison included Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, Charlson co-morbidity index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS). Based on scaled ranking score, SAPS performed best (score 0.510) among all the risk-adjustment indices. However, based on hypergeometric test, the five measures performed equally well.

CONCLUSIONS

Although all the selected risk-adjustment indices perform equally well, SAPS seems better than other indices for short-term mortality based on scaled ranking score.

Advances in management and prognostication in critically ill cirrhotic patients

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide an update on the recent publications for the management and prognostication of critically ill cirrhotic patients before and after liver transplant.

RECENT FINDINGS

The CLIF Acute-oN-ChrONicLIver Failure in Cirrhosis (CANONIC) study recently derived an evidence-based definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): hepatic decompensation; organ failure [predefined by the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA)]; and high 28-day mortality rate. Although Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) appears to be more accurate in predicting ICU and hospital mortality in ACLF patients, CLIF-SOFA has been derived specifically for critically ill cirrhotic patients, including those not receiving mechanical ventilation. Recent data suggest that a lower transfusion target in esophageal variceal bleeding (<7 g/l) is safe. Newly defined 'cirrhosis-associated acute kidney injury (AKI)' correlates with mortality, organ failure and length of hospital stay. Although the SOFA score appears to perform better than liver-specific scoring systems [Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores], neither MELD nor SOFA appears to independently predict posttransplant survival; however, correlated with lengths of ICU and hospital stay. For patients declined for liver transplant, palliative care referral and appropriate goals of care are rarely achieved.

SUMMARY

New definitions for ACLF, cirrhosis-associated AKI and the CLIF-SOFA may improve the discrimination between survivors and nonsurvivors with ACLF. Predicting futility postliver transplant based on preliver transplant severity of illness still poses significant challenges.

Intensive care unit management of patients with liver failure

Acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) usually mandate management within an intensive care unit (ICU). Even though the conditions bear some similarities, precipitating causes, and systemic complications management practices differ. Although early identification of ALF and ACLF, improvements in ICU management, and the widespread availability of liver transplantation have improved mortality, optimal management practices have not been defined. This article summarizes current ICU management practices and identifies areas of management that require further study.

The Royal Free Hospital score: a calibrated prognostic model for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit. Comparison with current models and CLIF-SOFA score

OBJECTIVES

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is poor. ICU prognostic models are more accurate than liver-specific models. We identified predictors of mortality, developed a novel prognostic score (Royal Free Hospital (RFH) score), and tested it against established prognostic models and the yet unvalidated Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) model.

METHODS

Predictors of mortality were defined by logistic regression in a cohort of 635 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU (1989-2012). The RFH score was derived using a 75% training and 25% validation set. Predictive accuracy and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and goodness-of-fit χ(2) for the RFH score, as well as for SOFA, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), and Child-Pugh. CLIF-SOFA was applied to a recent subset (2005-2012) of patients.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality was 52.3%. Mortality improved over time but with a corresponding reduction in acuity of illness on admission. Predictors of mortality in training set, which constituted the RFH score, were the following: bilirubin, international normalized ratio, lactate, alveolar arterial partial pressure oxygen gradient, urea, while variceal bleeding as indication for admission conferred lesser risk. Classification accuracy was 73.4% in training and 76.7% in validation sample and did not change significantly across different eras of admission. The AUROC for the derived model was 0.83 and the goodness-of-fit χ(2) was 3.74 (P=0.88). AUROC for SOFA was 0.81, MELD was 0.79, APACHE II was 0.78, and Child-Pugh was 0.67. In 2005-2012 cohort, AUROC was: SOFA: 0.74, CLIF-SOFA: 0.75, and RFH: 0.78. Goodness-of-fit χ(2) was: SOFA: 6.21 (P=0.63), CLIF-SOFA: 9.18 (P=0.33), and RFH: 2.91 (P=0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

RFH score demonstrated good discriminative ability and calibration. Internal validation supports its generalizability. CLIF-SOFA did not perform better than RFH and the original SOFA. External validation of our model should be undertaken to confirm its clinical utility.

Cirrhotic patients in the ICU: prognostic markers and outcome

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Give an update on the importance of prognostic scores at admission to the ICU for defining short-term outcome in critically ill cirrhotic patients. Highlight the correlation between the development of sepsis and/or organ failure and outcome.

RECENT FINDINGS

ICU mortality rate of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU ranges from 34 to 69%. Few improvements in the management of these patients occurred during the last decade. Definitive treatment relies mainly on the availability of transplant organs. ICU scores (mainly Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score) when performed at admission or within 2-4 days from admission are superior to liver specific scores (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Pugh scores) to determine outcome. Cirrhotic patients with three or more organ failures have higher mortality then general ICU patients in the same condition. An attempt to define an entity called 'acute on chronic liver failure' that characterizes better those patients with worse outcomes according to the numbers of organ failures is currently undergoing.

SUMMARY

Early referral of cirrhotic patients to ICU before the development of multiple extrahepatic organ failure is essential to improve outcome. Current scores should be used only for clinical trials and not to determine the potential futility or costs of an ICU admission.

Review article: towards a considered and ethical approach to organ support in critically-ill patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Increasing numbers of patients are being admitted to hospital with decompensated chronic liver disease in the UK. A significant proportion will develop complicating extra-hepatic organ dysfunction, but the selection of those who should be admitted to intensive care is complex and challenging. Alcohol-related liver disease also presents complex ethical dilemmas.

AIM

To review recent survival analyses and explore differences in secondary and tertiary care; to highlight strengths and weaknesses of prognostic models, therapeutic advances and shifts in prognostic expectation. We also aim to explore the ethical challenges presented by addiction and self-injury in an area of limited resource.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for articles discussing 'cirrhosis', 'prognosis', 'critical illness', 'organ failure', 'renal failure', 'alcohol', 'ethics' and 'addiction'. We also explored particular ethical dilemmas encountered by the authors and colleagues.

RESULTS

Prognosis has improved in many cirrhotic complications and historically poor outcomes in tertiary care may reflect a more complex patient cohort. Previously 'untreatable' complications are now being managed successfully. Estimates of survival are more accurate after a 48-h period of supportive care. Physicians are not best placed to make judgments with regard to deservingness, moral responsibility, rationing and access to organ support in cases of acute deterioration related to alcoholism, and the case for denying support must be made on purely medical grounds.

CONCLUSIONS

An early, aggressive approach to organ support is justified. Further discussions between hepatologists and critical care physicians are required to determine acceptable burden-to-benefit ratios for prolonged intensive care support in young alcoholic patients.

Acute-on chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an increasingly recognised entity encompassing an acute deterioration of liver function in patients with cirrhosis, which is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of one or more organs and high short term mortality. Prospective data to define this is lacking but there is a large body of circumstantial evidence suggesting that this condition is a distinct clinical entity. From the pathophysiologic perspective, altered host response to injury and infection play important roles in its development. This review focuses upon the current understanding of this syndrome from the clinical, prognostic and pathophysiologic perspectives and indicates potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets for intervention.

Serum lactate level predict mortality in elderly patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) usually have multi-organ failure. Multiple organ failure entails a very poor outcome in all intensive care patients. Cirrhotic patients show high morbidity and mortality rates compared with other critically ill patients. Severity scores have been developed for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU. The main aim of this study was to determine whether lactate level gives any predictive value for mortality in cirrhotic elderly patients admitted to the ICU.

METHODS

In all the patients enrolled, a diagnosis of cirrhosis was confirmed either histologically or by resorting to clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic findings. During this period, patients with cirrhosis were admitted to the ICU with varying indications. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores and lactate were compared between deceased and discharged patients.

RESULTS

A total of 90 consenting patients were enrolled in this study. The mean age of all the patients was 69 ± 5.919. We detected etiological factors for cirrhosis as HBV, HCV, alcohol, and cryptogenic cirrhosis. Hepatorenal syndrome and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were significantly higher in patients who died than in those who were discharged from the ICU (p values were 0.01 and 0.028, respectively). Lactate level, CTP, APACHE II, MELD and SOFA scores were significantly higher in patients who died than in those who were discharged from the ICU (p values were 0.002,  <  0.001, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Many factors may be useful as a predictor of mortality in ICU in elderly patients with cirrhosis. In terms of prognostic value, the lactate level and APACHE II score are the two best predictive factors in cirrhotic elderly patients admitted to the ICU.

Orthotopic liver transplantation in critically ill cirrhotic patients with multi-organ failure: a single-center experience

Due to the lack of donor organs for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in Germany, a larger proportion of patients advance to multi-organ failure (MOF) before OLT. Twenty-three patients on the waiting list for OLT were admitted to our intensive care unit (ICU) from January 2007 until September 2009. They consisted of 16 men and 7 women of median (25th-75th percentile) age of 60 years (54-65). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score upon ICU admission was 26 (19-34); Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 29 (22-41); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was 12 (8-16). The 90-day mortality rate was 39%. A decrease in MELD score during the first 48 hours (-2 [-5-0] vs 2 [-1-4]; P=.019) was associated with survival. Thirteen patients underwent transplantation from the ICU. By the time of the OLT, the MELD scores had deteriorated to 38 (33-39) and SOFA scores to 19 (18-19). All patients were mechanically ventilated and received hemodynamic support with catecholamines. Ten of 13 patients (77%) received renal replacement therapy and/or single pass albumin dialysis. Eight of 13 patients (62%) had a SOFA score of 3 or 4 (organ failure) in each of the respective subscores for the cardiovascular, renal, and respiratory systems at the time of OLT. The 90-day mortality rate after OLT was 38% and the 1-year-mortality rate was 54%. Patients who did not survive 90 days post OLT showed lower MELD scores on admission (33 [18-35] vs 44 [32-46]; P=.045), an increased MELD during the first 48 hours (3 [1-4] vs -2 [-8-1]; P=.002), and a longer ICU stay before OLT (32 [18-37] vs 8 [2-15]; P=.006). In conclusion, OLT may be successful treatment for cirrhotic patients with MOF. Outcomes of MOF in cirrhotic patients may improve after OLT but are generally worse than acceptable. A shorter ICU waiting time seemed to be beneficial.

Profile and outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis requiring mechanical ventilation

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have addressed the outcome of patients with cirrhosis requiring mechanical ventilation (MV). We aimed to investigate the short-term outcome of such patients.

METHODS

Retrospective review of data of 73 consecutive patients with cirrhosis requiring MV over a 2-year period (2006-2008). Data on patient's characteristics, reason for MV, the presence of other organ failure, and first day Acute Physiology Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Child-Pugh (CP), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores were collected, with 30-day mortality being the primary outcome measure.

RESULTS

Observed mortality in ICU and at 30 days was 75.3% and 87.7%, respectively. Area under curve was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.65-0.86) for APACHE II, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.85-0.98) for SOFA, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.7-0.96) for CP, and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.85-0.98) for MELD (P = .096) in predicting 30-day mortality. By univariate analysis, indication for intubation (P = .001), need for vasopressor support (P = .002), the presence of renal failure (P < .03), and duration of MV (P < .001) were significantly associated with mortality. On multivariate analysis, only duration of MV (adjusted odds ratio 0.63, 95% CI: 0.42-0.95, P = .03) was the independent predictor of mortality with a majority of patients, 51/64 (79.7%), dying in the first 48 hours of intubation.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis requiring MV have a dismal prognosis. Such patients and their families should be informed about the overall outcome to assist their decisions about life support and intensive care, outside the transplant setting. Prognostic scores, especially SOFA and MELD, may aid in determining which patients may benefit from aggressive therapy.

Infections in patients with cirrhosis increase mortality four-fold and should be used in determining prognosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A staged prognostic model of cirrhosis based on varices, ascites, and bleeding has been proposed. We analyzed data on infections in patients with cirrhosis to determine whether it is also a prognostic factor.

METHODS

Studies were identified by MEDLINE, EMBASE, COCHRANE, and ISI Web of Science searches (1978-2009); search terms included sepsis, infection, mortality, and cirrhosis. Studies (n = 178) reporting more than 10 patients and mortality data were evaluated (225 cohorts, 11,987 patients). Mortality after 1, 3, and 12 months was compared with severity, site, microbial cause of infection, etiology of cirrhosis, and publication year. Pooled odds ratio of death was compared for infected versus noninfected groups (18 cohorts, 2317 patients).

RESULTS

Overall median mortality of infected patients was 38%: 30.3% at 1 month and 63% at 12 months. Pooled odds ratio for death of infected versus noninfected patients was 3.75 (95% confidence interval, 2.12-4.23). In 101 studies that reported spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (7062 patients), the median mortality was 43.7%: 31.5% at 1 month and 66.2% at 12 months. In 30 studies that reported bacteremia (1437 patients), the median mortality rate was 42.2%. Mortality before 2000 was 47.7% and after 2000 was 32.3% (P = .023); mortality was reduced only at 30 days after spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (49% vs 31.5%; P = .005).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis, infections increase mortality 4-fold; 30% of patients die within 1 month after infection and another 30% die by 1 year. Prospective studies with prolonged follow-up evaluation and to evaluate preventative strategies are needed.

Outcomes of critically ill patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care: an important perspective from the non-transplant setting

BACKGROUND

Hospital admissions for cirrhosis have been increasing in the United Kingdom, leading to increased pressure on intensive care (ICU) services. Outcome data for patients admitted to ICU are currently limited to transplant centre reports, with mortality rates exceeding 70%. These tertiary reports could fuel a negative bias when patients with cirrhosis are reviewed for ICU admission in secondary care.

AIMS

To determine whether disease severity and mortality rates in non-transplant general ICU are less severe than those reported by tertiary datasets.

METHODS

A prospective dual-centre non-transplant ICU study. Admissions were screened for cirrhosis and physiological and biochemical data were collected. Disease-specific and critical illness scoring systems were evaluated.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis was present in 137/4198 (3.3%) of ICU admissions. ICU and hospital mortality were 38% and 47%, respectively; median age 50 [43-59] years, 68% men, 72% alcoholic cirrhosis, median Child Pugh Score (CPS) 10 [8-11], Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 18 [12-24], Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (APACHE II) 16 [13-22].

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates and disease staging were notably lower than in the published literature, suggesting that patients have a more favourable outlook than previously considered. Transplant centre data should therefore be interpreted with caution when evaluating the merits of intensive care admission for patients in general secondary care ICUs.