One-year mortality of patients admitted to the intensive care unit after in-hospital cardiac arrest: a retrospective study

Prediction model of in-hospital mortality in intensive care unit patients with cardiac arrest: a retrospective analysis of MIMIC -IV database based on machine learning

BACKGROUND

Both in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have higher incidence and lower survival rates. Predictors of in-hospital mortality for intensive care unit (ICU) admitted cardiac arrest (CA) patients remain unclear.

METHODS

The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database was used to perform a retrospective study. Patients meeting the inclusion criteria were identified from the MIMIC-IV database and randomly divided into training set (n = 1206, 70%) and validation set (n = 516, 30%). Candidate predictors consisted of the demographics, comorbidity, vital signs, laboratory test results, scoring systems, and treatment information on the first day of ICU admission. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were screened using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model and the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) in the training set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to build prediction models in training set, and then validated in validation set. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of these models were compared using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). After pairwise comparison, the best performing model was chosen to build a nomogram.

RESULTS

Among the 1722 patients, in-hospital mortality was 53.95%. In both sets, the LASSO, XGBoost,the logistic regression(LR) model and the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS 2) models showed acceptable discrimination. In pairwise comparison, the prediction effectiveness was higher with the LASSO,XGBoost and LR models than the NEWS 2 model (p < 0.001). The LASSO,XGBoost and LR models also showed good calibration. The LASSO model was chosen as our final model for its higher net benefit and wider threshold range. And the LASSO model was presented as the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

The LASSO model enabled good prediction of in-hospital mortality in ICU admission CA patients, which may be widely used in clinical decision-making.

COVID-19 as a risk factor for long-term mortality in patients managed by the emergency medical system: A prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based cohort study

Introduction

COVID-19 has initially been studied in terms of an acute-phase disease, although recently more attention has been given to the long-term consequences. In this study, we examined COVID-19 as an independent risk factor for long-term mortality in patients with acute illness treated by EMS (emergency medical services) who have previously had the disease against those who have not had the disease.

Methods

A prospective, multicenter, ambulance-based, ongoing study was performed with adult patients with acute disease managed by EMS and transferred with high priority to the emergency department (ED) as study subjects. The study involved six advanced life support units, 38 basic life support units, and five emergency departments from Spain. Sociodemographic inputs, baseline vital signs, pre-hospital blood tests, and comorbidities, including COVID-19, were collected. The main outcome was long-term mortality, which was classified into 1-year all-cause mortality and 1-year in- and out-of-hospital mortality. To compare both the patients with COVID-19 vs. patients without COVID-19 and to compare survival vs non-survival, two main statistical analyses were performed, namely, a longitudinal analysis (Cox regression) and a logistic regression analysis.

Results

Between 12 March 2020 and 30 September 2021, a total of 3,107 patients were included in the study, with 2,594 patients without COVID-19 and 513 patients previously suffering from COVID-19. The mortality rate was higher in patients with COVID-19 than in patients without COVID-19 (31.8 vs. 17.9%). A logistic regression showed that patients previously diagnosed with COVID-19 presented higher rates of nursing home residency, a higher number of breaths per minute, and suffering from connective disease, dementia, and congestive heart failure. The longitudinal analysis showed that COVID-19 was a risk factor for mortality [hazard ratio 1.33 (1.10-1.61); p < 0.001].

Conclusion

The COVID-19 group presented an almost double mortality rate compared with the non-COVID-19 group. The final model adjusted for confusion factors suggested that COVID-19 was a risk factor for long-term mortality.

The association between signs of medical distress preceding in-hospital cardiac arrest and 30-day survival – A register-based cohort study

Background

Identifying signs of medical distress prior to in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) is important to prevent IHCA and improve survival. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the association between signs of medical distress present within 60 minutes prior to cardiac arrest and survival after cardiac arrest.

Methods

The register-based cohort study included adult patients (≥18 years) with IHCA in the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (SRCR) from 2017-01-01 to 2020–07-15. Signs of distress prior to IHCA were defined as the medical signs arrhythmia, pulmonary oedema, hypotension, hypoxia or seizures present within 60 minutes prior to cardiac arrest (pre-arrest signs). Using multivariable logistic regression, the association between these pre-arrest signs and 30-day survival was analysed in both unadjusted and adjusted models. The covariates used were demographics, comorbidities, characteristics and treatment of cardiac arrest.

Results

In total, 8525 patients were included. After adjusting for covariates, patients with arrhythmia had a 58% higher probability of 30-day survival. The adjusted probability of 30-day survival was 41% and 52% lower for patients with hypotension and hypoxia prior to IHCA, respectively. Pulmonary oedema and seizures were not associated with any change in 30-day survival.

Conclusions

Among signs of medical distress prior to in-hospital cardiac arrest, arrhythmia was associated with a higher 30-day survival. Hypotension and hypoxia were associated with lower survival after IHCA. These findings indicate that future research on survival after cardiac arrest should take pre-arrest signs into account as it impacts the prerequisites for survival.

Quality of life and functional outcomes after in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation. A systematic review

AIM

Our aim was to determine the association of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) for in hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) with quality of life after discharge.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review using available databases for studies that measured any quality-of-life or functional outcome both before and after CPR for IHCA. All screening and data abstraction was performed in duplicate.

RESULTS

We screened 10,927 records and included 24 papers representing 20 unique studies. Fifteen studies measured Cerebral Performance Category. Survival ranged from 11.8% to 39.5%. The risk of impaired cerebral function after discharged ranged from -16.1% (lower risk) to 44.7% increased risk of poor cerebral function after surviving to discharge. Four studies measured discharge to an institutional environment finding that the risk was increased by 18.2-72.2% among survivors. One study measured EQ-5D and found no difference pre and post CPR. One study measured performance of activities of daily living finding that survivors needed assistance with more activities after discharge.

CONCLUSION

Our review is limited by the lack of adjustment for confounders, including the baseline level of each outcome, in all included studies. Therefore, although risk for most outcomes was increased after discharge vs pre-admission we cannot be certain if this is a causal relationship.

Long-term survival and health-related quality of life after in-hospital cardiac arrest

INTRODUCTION

In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) is an adverse event associated with high mortality. Because of the impact of IHCA more data is needed on incidence, outcomes and associated factors that are present prior to cardiac arrest. The aim was to assess one-year survival, patient-centred outcomes after IHCA and their associated pre-arrest factors.

METHODS

A multicentre prospective cohort study in 25 hospitals between January 1st 2017 and May 31st 2018. Patients ≥ 18 years receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) for IHCA were included. Data were collected using Utstein and COSCA-criteria, supplemented by pre-arrest Modified Rankin Scale (MRS, functional status) and morbidity through the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Main outcomes were survival, health-related quality of life (HRQoL, EuroQoL) and functional status (MRS) after one-year.

RESULTS

A total of 713 patients were included, 64.5% was male, median age was 63 years (IQR 52-72) and 72.8% had a non-shockable rhythm, 394 (55.3%) achieved ROSC, 231 (32.4%) survived to hospital discharge and 198 (27.8%) survived one year after cardiac arrest. Higher pre-arrest MRS, age and CCI were associated with mortality. At one year, patients rated HRQoL 72/100 points on the EQ-VAS and 69.7% was functionally independent.

CONCLUSION

One-year survival after IHCA in this study is 27.8%, which is relatively high compared to previous studies. Survival is associated with a patient's pre-arrest functional status and morbidity. HRQoL appears acceptable, however functional rehabilitation warrants attention. These findings provide a comprehensive insight in in-hospital cardiac arrest prognosis.

Long-Term Functional Outcome and Quality of Life Following In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest-A Longitudinal Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the functional outcome and health-related quality of life of in-hospital cardiac arrest survivors at 6 and 12 months.

DESIGN

A longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Seven metropolitan hospitals in Australia.

PATIENTS

Data were collected for hospitalized adults (≥ 18 yr) who experienced in-hospital cardiac arrest, defined as "a period of unresponsiveness, with no observed respiratory effort and the commencement of external cardiac compressions."

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Prior to hospital discharge, patients were approached for consent to participate in 6-month and 12-month telephone interviews. Outcomes included the modified Rankin Scale, Barthel Index, Euro-Quality of Life 5 Dimension 5 Level, return to work and hospital readmissions. Forty-eight patients (80%) consented to follow-up interviews. The mean age of participants was 67.2 (± 15.3) years, and 33 of 48 (68.8%) were male. Good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score ≤ 3) was reported by 31 of 37 participants (83.8%) at 6 months and 30 of 33 (90.9%) at 12 months. The median Euro-Quality of Life-5D index value was 0.73 (0.33-0.84) at 6 months and 0.76 (0.47-0.88) at 12 months. The median Euro-Quality of Life-Visual Analogue Scale score at 6 months was 70 (55-80) and 75 (50-87.5) at 12 months. Problems in all Euro-Quality of Life-5D-5 L dimension were reported frequently at both time points. Hospital readmission was reported by 23 of 37 patients (62.2%) at 6 months and 16 of 33 (48.5%) at 12 months. Less than half of previously working participants had returned to work by 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of in-hospital cardiac arrest survivors had a good functional outcome and health-related quality of life at 6 months, and this was largely unchanged at 12 months. Despite this, many reported problems with mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain, and anxiety/depression. Return to work rates was low, and hospital readmissions were common.

Higher 1-year mortality in women admitted to intensive care units after cardiac arrest: A nationwide overview from the Netherlands between 2010 and 2018

PURPOSE

We study sex differences in 1-year mortality of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

DATA

A retrospective cohort analysis of OHCA and IHCA patients registered in the NICE registry in the Netherlands. The primary and secondary outcomes were 1-year and hospital mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

We included 19,440 OHCA patients (5977 women, 30.7%) and 13,461 IHCA patients (4889 women, 36.3%). For OHCA, 1-year mortality was 63.9% in women and 52.6% in men (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] 1.23-1.34). For IHCA, 1-year mortality was 60.0% in women and 57.0% in men (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.14). In OHCA, hospital mortality was 57.4% in women and 46.5% in men (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.42, 95% CI 1.33-1.52). In IHCA, hospital mortality was 52.0% in women and 48.2% in men (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20).

CONCLUSION

Women admitted to the ICU after cardiac arrest have a higher mortality rate than men. After left-truncation, we found that this sex difference persisted for OHCA. For IHCA we found that the effect of sex was mainly present in the initial phase after the cardiac arrest.

Treatment Limitation Decisions in Critically Ill Patients With a Malignancy on the Intensive Care Unit

Background:

Treatment limitation decisions (TLDs) on the ICU can be challenging, especially in patients with a malignancy. Up-to-date literature regarding TLDs in critically ill patients with a malignancy admitted to the ICU is scarce. The aim was to compare the incidence of written TLDs between patients with an active malignancy, patients with a malignancy in their medical history (complete remission, CR) and patients without a malignancy admitted unplanned to the ICU.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a large university hospital in the Netherlands. We identified all unplanned admissions to the ICU in 2017 and categorized the patients in 3 groups: patients with an active malignancy (study population), with CR and without a malignancy. A TLD was defined as a written instruction not to perform life-saving treatments, such as CPR in case of cardiac arrest. A multivariate binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify whether having a malignancy was associated with TLDs.

Results:

Of the 1046 unplanned admissions, 125 patients (12%) had an active malignancy and 76 (7.3%) patients had CR. The incidence of written TLDs in these subgroups were 37 (29.6%) and 20 (26.3%). Age (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01 -1.04), SOFA score at ICU admission (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.05 -1.18) and having an active malignancy (OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.04-2.96) compared to no malignancy were independently associated with written TLDs. SOFA scores on the day of the TLD were not significantly different in patients with and without a malignancy.

Conclusions:

This study shows that the presence of an underlying malignancy is independently associated with written TLDs during ICU stay. Patients with CR were not at risk of more written TLDs. Whether this higher incidence of TLDs in patients with a malignancy is justified, is at least questionable and should be evaluated in future research.

The association between duration of mechanical ventilation and survival in post cardiac arrest patients

PURPOSE

To assess the association between the duration of mechanical ventilation during post resuscitation care and 30-day survival after cardiac arrest.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study using data from two national registries. Comatose cardiac arrest patients admitted to general intensive care in Swedish hospitals between 2011 and 2016 were eligible. Based on the median duration of mechanical ventilation for patients who did not survive to hospital discharge, used as a proxy for the endurance of post resuscitation care, the hospitals were divided into four ordered groups for which association with 30-day survival was analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 5.113 patients in 56 hospitals were included. Median duration of mechanical ventilation for patients who did not survive to hospital discharge ranged from 17 h in hospital group 1-51 hours in hospital group 4. After adjustment for baseline characteristics, 30-day survival in the entire cohort was positively and independently associated with ordered hospital group: (adjusted odds ratio (95%CI); 1.12 (1.02,1.23); p = 0.02). Thus, hospitals with a longer duration of mechanical ventilation among non-survivors had better survival rate among patients admitted to ICU after a cardiac arrest. However, in a secondary analysis restricted to patients with length of stay in the intensive care unit ≥ 48 h, there was no significant association between 30-day survival and ordered hospital group.

CONCLUSION

A tendency for longer duration of post resuscitation care in the ICU was associated with higher 30-day survival in comatose patients admitted to intensive care after cardiac arrest.

Cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation after in-hospital cardiac arrest: A Markov decision model

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) for in-hospital cardiac arrest treatment.

METHODS

A decision tree and Markov model were constructed based on current literature. The model was conditional on age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and sex. Three treatment strategies were considered: ECPR for patients with an Age-Combined Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) below different thresholds (2-4), ECPR for everyone (EALL), and ECPR for no one (NE). Cost-effectiveness was assessed with costs per quality-of-life adjusted life years (QALY).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Treating eligible patients with an ACCI below 2 points costs 8394 (95% CI: 4922-14,911) euro per extra QALY per IHCA patient; treating eligible patients with an ACCI below 3 costs 8825 (95% CI: 5192-15,777) euro per extra QALY per IHCA patient; treating eligible patients with an ACCI below 4 costs 9311 (95% CI: 5478-16,690) euro per extra QALY per IHCA patient; treating every eligible patient with ECPR costs 10,818 (95% CI: 6357-19,400) euro per extra QALY per IHCA patient. For WTP thresholds of 0-9500 euro, NE has the highest probability of being the most cost-effective strategy. For WTP thresholds between 9500 and 12,500, treating eligible patients with an ACCI below 4 has the highest probability of being the most cost-effective strategy. For WTP thresholds of 12,500 or higher, EALL was found to have the highest probability of being the most cost-effective strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Given that conventional WTP thresholds in Europe and North-America lie between 50,000-100,000 euro or U.S. dollars, ECPR can be considered a cost-effective treatment after in-hospital cardiac arrest from a healthcare perspective. More research is necessary to validate the effectiveness of ECPR, with a focus on the long-term effects of complications of ECPR.