Risk of stroke and heart failure attributable to atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and elderly people: Results from a five-year prospective cohort study of Japanese community dwellers

Prevalence and prognostic value of atrial fibrillation in patients with cardiac sarcoidosis

Aims

The prognostic value of the presence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients at the time of cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) diagnosis is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between AF at the time of CS diagnosis and patient prognosis.

Methods and results

This study is a post-hoc analysis of Illustration of the Management and Prognosis of Japanese Patients with CS, a multicentre, retrospective observational study that evaluated the clinical characteristics and prognosis of patients with CS. The primary endpoint was the combined endpoint of all-cause death and hospitalization due to heart failure. After excluding patients with missing data about AF status, 445 patients (62 ± 11 years, 36% males) diagnosed with CS according to the Japanese current diagnostic guideline were analysed. Compared to patients without AF, patients with AF (n = 46, 10%) had higher levels of brain natriuretic peptide and a higher prevalence of heart failure hospitalizations. During a median follow-up period of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 1.7-5.8 years), 80 primary endpoints were observed. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis indicated that concomitant AF at the time of diagnosis was significantly associated with a high incidence of primary endpoints (log-rank P = 0.002). This association was retained after adjusting for known risk factors including log-transformed brain natriuretic peptide levels and left ventricular ejection fractions [hazard ratio, 1.96 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.65); P = 0.035].

Conclusion

The presence of AF at the time of CS diagnosis is associated with higher incidence of all-cause death and heart failure hospitalization.

Prediction of recurrent stroke among ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation: Development and validation of a risk score model

BACKGROUND

There is currently no validated risk prediction model for recurrent events among patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and atrial fibrillation (AF). Considering that the application of conventional risk scores has contextual limitations, new strategies are needed to develop such a model. Here, we set out to develop and validate a comprehensive risk prediction model for stroke recurrence in AIS patients with AF.

METHODS

AIS patients with AF were collected from multicenter registries in South Korea and Japan. A developmental dataset was constructed with 5648 registered cases from both countries for the period 2011‒2014. An external validation dataset was also created, consisting of Korean AIS subjects with AF registered between 2015 and 2018. Event outcomes were collected during 1 year after the index stroke. A multivariable prediction model was developed using the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model with non-stroke mortality as a competing risk. The model incorporated 21 clinical variables and was further validated, calibrated, and revised using the external validation dataset.

RESULTS

The developmental dataset consisted of 4483 Korean and 1165 Japanese patients (mean age, 74.3 ± 10.2 years; male 53%); 338 patients (6%) had recurrent stroke and 903 (16%) died. The clinical profiles of the external validation set (n = 3668) were comparable to those of the developmental dataset. The c-statistics of the final model was 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.66 ‒0.71). The developed prediction model did not show better discriminative ability for predicting stroke recurrence than the conventional risk prediction tools (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and ATRIA).

CONCLUSIONS

Neither conventional risk stratification tools nor our newly developed comprehensive prediction model using available clinical factors seemed to be suitable for identifying patients at high risk of recurrent ischemic stroke among AIS patients with AF in this modern direct oral anticoagulant era. Detailed individual information, including imaging, may be warranted to build a more robust and precise risk prediction model for stroke survivors with AF.

Bleeding risks associated with anticoagulant therapies after percutaneous coronary intervention in Japanese patients with ischemic heart disease complicated by atrial fibrillation: A comparative study

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend early termination of triple therapy and the use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), due to safety concerns. However, to date, real-world medication usage and safety outcomes (specifically bleeding) in NVAF patients with stent implantation have not been well assessed.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, observational, medical database cohort study in Japanese ischemic heart disease (IHD) patients with NVAF who underwent PCI between 2012 and 2017. The primary outcome was clinically relevant bleeding; secondary outcomes included individual bleeding events. A multivariate analysis was conducted to identify risk factors affecting the occurrence of clinically relevant bleeding events.

RESULTS

The analysis population comprised 5695 patients [3530 received DOACs and 2165 received vitamin K antagonists (VKAs)]. The incidence of primary outcome events (clinically relevant bleeding/100 patient-years) was 6.05 in the DOAC group and 8.42 in the VKA group, resulting in a nonsignificant 21% lower risk in the DOAC group. The DOAC group also had a nonsignificant 24%, 24%, and 34% lower risk of bleeding requiring transfusion, intracranial bleeding, and lower gastrointestinal bleeding, respectively, compared with the VKA group. A multivariate analysis of the primary outcome showed a significantly higher risk of bleeding among older patients and those with lower body weight and abnormal renal function.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective real-world evaluation of IHD patients with NVAF and PCI, DOAC-treated patients had a lower risk of developing clinically relevant bleeding compared with the VKA group.

Atrial Fibrillation With and Without Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Stroke Mortality

Aim: The association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk of stroke mortality among men and women without traditional cerebrocardiovascular risk factors (TCVRFs) is unclear. This study aimed to determine whether AF was a risk factor for stroke and total cardiovascular disease mortality among individuals without TCVRFs.

Methods: A total of 90,629 Japanese subjects from the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study aged 40–79 years, with and without TCVRFs, were studied from 1993 to 2013. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard regression model stratified by sex and the presence of TCVRFs. Covariates were age, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, and serum total cholesterol levels. A standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at rest was used to screen AF. Cause-specific mortality was classified according to the International Classification of Disease code.

Results: Compared with participants without AF, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for stroke mortality among participants without TCVRFs were 4.3 (1.1–17.8) and 15.0 (5.5–40.8) for men and women with AF, respectively. HRs for total cardiovascular disease mortality were 6.2 (2.8–14.2) for men and 10.7 (4.8–24.1) for women. For participants with TCVRFs, multivariable-adjusted HRs for stroke mortality were 3.1 (2.2–4.6) and 4.3 (2.6–7.3), whereas HRs for total cardiovascular disease mortality were 2.9 (2.2–3.8) and 3.5 (2.4–5.1) for men and women, respectively.

Conclusions: AF was found to be an independent risk factor for stroke and total cardiovascular mortality even in individuals without other TCVRFs.

A model to predict risk of stroke in middle-aged adults with type 2 diabetes generated from a nationwide population-based cohort study in Korea

AIMS

The incidence of stroke differs between Asians and Caucasians, and between people with or without diabetes mellitus (DM). This study aimed to develop a model to predict the risk of stroke in middle-aged patients with type 2 DM.

METHODS

Using the National Health Insurance Database in Korea, data from patients aged 40-64 years with type 2 DM who received a health examination from 2009 to 2012 (n = 1,297,131) were analyzed as development (n = 907,992) and validation (n = 389,139) cohorts. Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to derive a risk-scoring system, and 13 predictive variables were selected. A risk score nomogram based on the risk prediction model was created to estimate the 5-year risk of stroke.

RESULTS

In patients with type 2 DM, significant predictors for the development of stroke were older age, being male or a current smoker, lack of exercise, low body mass index, low estimated glomerular filtration rate, presence of coronary heart disease, longer duration of DM, insulin or multiple oral hypoglycemic agents use, low (<100 mg/dL) or high (≥140 mg/dL) fasting blood glucose, high systolic blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and presence of atrial fibrillation. The concordance indexes for stroke prediction were 0.703 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.700-0.707) in the development cohort and 0.703 (95% CI 0.698-0.708) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a risk model using various clinical parameters to predict stroke in patients with type 2 DM. This model may provide helpful information for identifying high-risk patients and guide prevention of stroke in this specific population.

Age-Specific Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Cardiovascular Mortality Among Japanese Men and Women (The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study [IPHS])

The age-specific impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on cardiovascular diseases remains unclear. A total of 90,629 participants who were from 40 to 79 years of age in 1993 were followed up until 2013 as part of the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study. Hazard ratios for mortality stratified by gender and age groups were calculated using Cox's proportional hazards regression models. A total of 22,794 patients (11,329 men and 11,465 women) died during the follow-up period, including 6,684 patients who died of cardiovascular causes (2,951 men and 3,733 women). On multivariable analysis, participants with AF had an increased risk of cardiovascular-related mortality compared with those without AF. Among participants aged 40 to 64 years, the adjusted hazard ratios were 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0 to 5.3) for men and 7.1 (95% CI 3.2 to 16.0) for women; the corresponding adjusted hazard ratios among participants aged 65 to 79 years were 3.0 (95% CI 2.2 to 4.0) for men and 3.7 (95% CI 2.5 to 5.4) for women. No significant difference in hazard ratios between age groups was found for either gender. AF was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in each age and gender group; again, no significant difference in hazard ratios between the age groups was found in terms of AF. AF may be an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and all-cause mortalities regardless of age.

Five-year incidence of common comorbidities, such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease and cancer, in older Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis

AIM

To estimate the 5-year incidence of common comorbidities, including lifestyle-associated diseases, in older Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

We enrolled 129 consecutive patients with RA aged ≥65 years in this study. We examined all patients for the presence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease and cancer at baseline (in 2013) and 5 years later (in 2018) using clinical records, self-reported questionnaires, interviews and medication records.

RESULTS

At baseline, hypertension was prevalent in 37.2% of the patients, dyslipidemia in 18.6%, diabetes mellitus in 9.3%, cardiovascular disease in 14.7%, cerebrovascular disease in 10.1% and cancer in 10.1%. Furthermore, the change of prevalence after 5 years from baseline of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease and cancer was 4.6%, 3.9%, 0.8%, 4.7%, 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively. The factors associated at baseline and/or after 5 years of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease and cancer included disease duration and body mass index, body mass index and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody, corticosteroid use, body mass index, and male and disease duration, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The Japanese population is aging and so is the population of patients with RA. In older patients with RA, hypertension and cardiovascular disease should be particularly considered. Therefore, although the therapeutic agents for RA have improved, a better understanding of the comorbidities in older patients with RA should impact the treatment of RA. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 577-581.

Echocardiographic Parameters and the Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: The Suita Study

Background

Left atrial dimension (LAD) and other parameters of echocardiography have been reported to be associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, few studies have investigated the associations between echocardiographic parameters and the risk of AF in the Asian general population, which has a low AF incidence.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was performed in 1,424 individuals in the Suita study with echocardiographic parameters, including LAD, and no history of AF. After echocardiography, the participants were followed using 12-lead electrocardiography and questionnaires to detect AF incidence. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of echocardiographic parameters for AF incidence were estimated after adjustment for the risk factors of the AF risk score.

Results

During the median 6.0 years of follow-up, 31 AF cases occurred. The multivariable-adjusted HR of a 1-mm increase in LAD for AF was 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08–1.28). The multivariable-adjusted HR for AF of a 1-standard-deviation increase in LAD was higher than that of left ventricular internal dimensions in diastole, left ventricular mass, ejection fraction, and percent fractional shortening, and it was the only significant factor. In 667 participants with both LAD and LA volume (LAV) measurements, LAD and LAV were independently associated with the risk of AF incidence.

Conclusions

LAD on echocardiography was an independent risk factor of incident AF in the Japanese population. LAD might be useful for identifying individuals with a high risk of AF in health check-ups of the general population.

Body Mass Index and Risks of Incident Ischemic Stroke Subtypes: The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective (JPHC) Study

BACKGROUND

The association of body mass index (BMI) with risks of ischemic stroke subtypes have not been established.

METHODS

Cumulative average BMI was calculated using self-reported body weight and height obtained from baseline (Cohort I in 1990, and Cohort II from 1993-1994) and 5- and 10-year questionnaire surveys of Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) study. A total of 42,343 men and 46,413 women aged 40-69 years were followed-up for the incidence of lacunar, large-artery occlusive, and cardioembolic strokes. A sub-distribution hazard model was used to estimate sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a median of 20.0 years of follow-up, we documented 809 and 481 lacunar, 395 and 218 large-artery occlusive, and 568 and 298 cardioembolic strokes in men and women, respectively. After adjustment for baseline age, updated smoking, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, and histories of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus, cumulative average BMI was positively linearly associated with lacunar (trend P = 0.007), large-artery occlusive (trend P = 0.002), and cardioembolic (trend P < 0.001) strokes in men, and with lacunar (trend P < 0.001) and large-artery occlusive (trend P = 0.003) strokes in women. There were approximately two-fold excess risk of cardioembolic stroke in both sexes and of lacunar and large-artery occlusive strokes in women for cumulative average BMI ≥30 kg/m² compared to BMI 23-<25 kg/m².

CONCLUSION

Cumulative average BMI showed a positive linear effect on sub-distribution hazards of lacunar, large-artery occlusive, and cardioembolic strokes in both sexes, except for cardioembolic stroke in women.