The significance of the morphology-voltage-P-wave duration (MVP) ECG score for prediction of in-hospital and long-term atrial fibrillation in ischemic stroke

Risk scores for prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Detection of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is crucial for secondary prevention in patients with recent strokes of unknown etiology. This systematic review and meta-analysis assess the predictive power of available risk scores for detecting new PAF after acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched until September 2023 to identify relevant studies. A bivariate random effects meta-analysis model pooled data on sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) for each score. The QUADAS-2 tool was used for the quality assessment.

Results

Eventually, 21 studies with 18 original risk scores were identified. Age, left atrial enlargement, and NIHSS score were the most common predictive factors, respectively. Seven risk scores were meta-analyzed, with iPAB showing the highest pooled sensitivity and AUC (sensitivity: 89.4%, specificity: 74.2%, AUC: 0.83), and HAVOC having the highest pooled specificity (sensitivity: 46.3%, specificity: 82.0%, AUC: 0.82). Altogether, seven risk scores displayed good discriminatory power (AUC ≥0.80) with four of them (HAVOC, iPAB, Fujii, and MVP scores) being externally validated.

Conclusion

Available risk scores demonstrate moderate to good predictive accuracy and can help identify patients who would benefit from extended cardiac monitoring after AIS. External validation is essential before widespread clinical adoption.

The Prevalence of Orthostatic Hypotension in Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is associated with a higher risk of mortality in the general population; however, it has not been studied in the cancer population. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of OH in cancer patients compared to that in the noncancer population.

METHODS

A total of 411 patients (mean age 63.5 ± 10.6 years) were recruited: patients with active cancer (n = 223) and patients hospitalised for other reasons, but without a cancer diagnosis (n = 188). Medical histories were collected and an orthostatic challenge test was performed. OH was defined as a blood pressure (BP) decrease upon standing of ≥20 mmHg for the systolic or ≥10 mmHg for the diastolic BP after 1 or 3 min; or a systolic BP decrease <90 mmHg.

RESULTS

The prevalence of OH in the subjects with cancer was significantly higher than in the subjects without cancer (28.7% vs. 16.5%, respectively, p = 0.003). OH was the most common in the lung cancer patients (57.5%). In a single-variable analysis, the predictors of OH were cancer presence, age ≥ 65 years, and body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2. In the multivariable model, the strongest independent predictor of OH was cancer status, which doubled the risk of OH, and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 and diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer patients are characterised by a high prevalence of OH. In this population, the recommendation of routine orthostatic challenge tests should be considered.

Electrocardiogram prediction of atrial fibrillation risk after stroke: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common clinical arrhythmias. This study aims to predict the risk of post-stroke AF through electrocardiographic changes in sinus rhythm.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE (PubMed) and EMBASE databases to identify relevant research articles published until August 2023. Prioritized items from systematic reviews and meta-analyses were screened, and data related to AF detection rate were extracted. A meta-analysis using a random-effects model was conducted for data synthesis and analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 32 studies involving electrocardiograms (ECG) were included, with a total analysis population of 330,284 individuals. Among them, 16,662 individuals (ECG abnormal group) developed AF, while 313,622 individuals (ECG normal group) did not. ECG patterns included terminal P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block (IAB), advanced interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation, and atrial premature complexes. Overall, 15,762 patients experienced AF during the study period (4.77%). In the ECG abnormal group, the proportion was 14.21% (2367/16,662), while in the control group (ECG normal group), the proportion was 4.27% (13,395/313,622). The pooled risk ratio for developing AF was 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.02-2.98, P < .001), with heterogeneity (I2) of 95%. The risk ratio values of alAB, P-wave terminal force V1, interatrial block, abnormal P-wave axis, pulse rate prolongation and atrial premature complexes were 4.12 (95% CI, 2.99-5.66), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), 2.54 (95% CI, 1.83-3.52), 1.70 (95% CI, 0.98-2.97), 2.65 (95% CI, 1.88-3.72), 3.79 (95% CI, 2.12-6.76), respectively.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant correlation between ECG patterns and the occurrence of AF. The alAB exhibited the highest level of predictability for the occurrence of AF. These indicators support their use as screening tools to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from further examinations or empirical anticoagulation therapy following stroke.

Usefulness of Non-Invasive Parameters (Inferior Vena Cava Diameter, Inferior Vena Cava Collapsibility, Inferior Vena Cava-Aortic Ratio) for Hemodynamic Monitoring in Critically Ill Children: A Systematic Review

Purpose

Volume measurement in critically ill children can be conducted using invasive procedure such as Central Venous Pressure (CVP), or non-invasive procedure such as measurement of Inferior Vena Cava (IVC) indices using ultrasonography. However, their accuracy and efficacy are still under scrutiny. We aim to compare CVP and IVC indices as non-invasive parameters in assessing volume status in critically ill children.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review based on literature searching from four electronic databases which were PubMed, Cochrane, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink with keywords: "CENTRAL VENOUS PRESSURE", "INFERIOR VENA CAVA DIAMETER", "INFERIOR VENA CAVA COLLAPSIBILITY", "INFERIOR VENA CAVA AORTIC-RATIO", "VOLUME STATUS", "FLUID STATUS", "CRITICAL ILL", "CHILDREN", and "PEDIATRICS". We included relevant studies in English published from 2000 to 2023 on critically ill children aged 0-18 years. Comparison between CVP and IVC indices was resumed.

Results

Eight articles were included in this study. Majority of the studies showed a consistent correlation between CVP and IVC indices. IVC-CI was the most common parameter evaluated in the included studies. There was moderate to strong correlations using IVC-CI and IVC-DI, and moderate correlation using IVC-Ao ratio.

Conclusion

We found that non-invasive tools might have a potential role to measure volume in critically ill children equals to CVP. Further high-quality and longitudinal studies are needed to validate these findings and to establish a clear guideline for the non-invasive tool to be used in daily clinical practice.

Relationship Between Liver Fibrosis and Increased Risk of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage in Ischemic Stroke Patients Undergoing Mechanical Thrombectomy

Background

Liver fibrosis has been reported to be associated with hematoma expansion and mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. This study aimed to detect the association between liver fibrosis and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) in ischemic stroke after mechanical thrombectomy (MT).

Methods

We retrospectively included patients with large artery occlusion in the anterior circulation and treated with MT at a single stroke center. The fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) was used to assess the severity of liver fibrosis. sICH was diagnosed according to the Heidelberg Bleeding Classification criteria. Multivariate logistic regression and restricted cubic spline analysis were conducted to examine the relationship between liver fibrosis and sICH.

Results

Among the 578 patients (mean age, 70.1 years; 58.5% male) included in the study, 65 (11.2%) individuals were diagnosed with sICH. After adjusting for demographic characteristics and other potential confounders, a higher FIB-4 index was found to be independently associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio: 1.306, 95% confidence interval: 1.127-1.512, P=0.001). Similar results were obtained when analyzing FIB-4 as a categorical variable.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that there is a significant association between FIB-4 and the risk of sICH in patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent MT. Therefore, liver fibrosis could serve as a valuable parameter in monitoring the risk of sICH following MT.

A patient with acute myocardial infarction with electrocardiogram Aslanger's pattern

BACKGROUND

Aslanger's pattern in electrocardiogram (ECG) indicates that patients may have acute inferior myocardial infarction(AMI) with concomitant critical stenoses on other coronary arteries, which needs to be evaluated the timing of revascularization as risk equivalents of ST elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI).

CASE PRESENTATION

The patient was a 62-year-old male with chief complaint of intermittent exertional subxiphoid pain for 20 days from 30th June. One day after the last episode (19th July), the 18-lead electrocardiogram showed ST segment elevation of 0.05-0.1mV in lead III, ST segment depression in leads I, avL, and V2-V6, T wave inversion with positive terminal vector in lead V4-V5, and positive T wave in lead V6, which indicated Aslanger's pattern. With increased Troponin I (0.162ng/mL, 0-0.02), The patient was diagnosed as acute non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and admitted to coronary ward on 20th July. The coronary angiography showed 95% stenosis in the distal left main coronary artery (LM) to the ostium of the left anterior descending artery (LAD), 90% stenosis in the proximal segment of the LAD, and 80% stenosis in the middle segment of the LAD, and TIMI blood flow was graded score 2. Three drug-eluting stents were implanted at the lesions. The patient's ECG returned close to normal one month after revascularization.

CONCLUSION

We presented an acute coronary syndrome case whose ECG showed with Aslanger's pattern (i.e., isolated ST-segment elevation in lead III, associated ST-segment depression in lead V4-V6 with positive T wave/terminal vector, and greater ST-segment elevation in lead V1 than in lead V2), and was confirmed severe stenosis of the LM and the proximal segment of the LAD via coronary angiography. In clinical practice, especially in the emergency, patients with ECG presenting Aslanger's pattern should be urgently evaluated with prompt treatment, and the timing of emergency coronary angiography and revascularization should be evaluated to avoid adverse outcomes caused by delayed treatment.

P-wave characteristics as electrocardiographic markers of atrial abnormality in prediction of incident atrial fibrillation - The Malmö Preventive Project

BACKGROUND

P-wave indices reflect atrial abnormalities contributing to atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to assess a comprehensive set of P-wave characteristics for prediction of incident AF in a population-based setting.

METHODS

Malmö Preventative Project (MPP) participants were reexamined in 2002-2006 with electrocardiographic (ECG) and echocardiographic examinations and followed for 5 years. AF-free subjects (n = 983, age 70 ± 5 years, 38% females) with sinus rhythm ECGs were included in the study. ECGs were digitally processed using the Glasgow algorithm. P-wave duration, axis, dispersion, P-terminal force in lead V1 and interatrial block (IAB) were evaluated. ECG risk score combining the morphology, voltage and length of P-wave (MVP score) was calculated. New-onset diagnoses of AF were obtained from nation-wide registers.

RESULTS

During follow up, 66 patients (7%) developed AF. After adjustment for age and gender, the independent predictors of AF were abnormal P-wave axis > 75° (HR 1.63 CI95% 1.95-11.03) and MVP score 4 (HR 6.17 CI 95% 1.76-21.64), both correlated with LA area: Person r - 0.146, p < 0.001 and 0.192, p < 0.001 respectively. Advanced IAB (aIAB) with biphasic P-wave morphology in leads III and aVF was the most prevalent variant of aIAB and predicted AF in a univariate model (HR 2.59 CI 95% 1.02-6.58).

CONCLUSION

P-wave frontal axis and MVP score are ECG-based AF predictors in the population-based cohort. Our study provides estimates for prevalence and prognostic importance of different variants of aIAB, providing a support to use biphasic P-wave morphology in lead aVF as the basis for aIAB definition.

Prognostic Value of PtfV1 in Long-Term Outcomes of Patients with Unstable Angina

Background

P-wave terminal force in lead V1 (PtfV1) irregularity has been associated with various cardiovascular conditions, including atrial fibrillation, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, valvular heart disease, congestive heart failure, stroke, and mortality. However, its prognostic value for unstable angina (UA) has not been extensively studied. To address this knowledge gap, this study aimed to evaluate the long-term predictive significance of PtfV1 at discharge for UA patients.

Methods

A total of 707 patients with newly diagnosed UA were included in this study. PtfV1 measurements were recorded at admission and discharge. PtfV1(+) was defined as an absolute value above 0.04mm·s, while PtfV1(-) was defined as an absolute value below 0.04mm·s. Based on their PtfV1 values at discharge, patients were categorized into two groups: PtfV1(-) and PtfV1(+). Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify variables that could potentially contribute to the risk of UA.

Results

Univariate analysis revealed a higher incidence of total adverse outcomes and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in the PtfV1(+) group compared to the PtfV1(-) group, with a risk ratio (RR) of 2.006 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.389-2.896] for total outcomes and an RR of 2.759 (95% CI: 1.870-4.070) for MACE. After adjusting for confounding factors through multivariate analysis, participants with PtfV1(+) had a 46% increased risk [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.458; 95% CI: 1.010-2.104]for total adverse outcomes and an 86% increased risk (adjusted HR: 1.863; 95% CI: 1.246-2.786) for MACE compared to those with PtfV1(-).

Conclusion

The presence of PtfV1(+) at discharge is an independent predictor of poor outcomes and provides extended prognostic information for UA patients.

Research progress on predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after radiofrequency ablation based on electrocardiogram-related parameters

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia. It is associated with increased stroke risks, thromboembolism, and other complications, which are great life and economic burdens for patients. In recent years, with the maturity of percutaneous catheter radiofrequency ablation (RFA) technology, it has become a first-line therapy for AF. However, some patients still experience AF recurrence (AFR) after RFA, which can cause serious consequences. Therefore, it is critical to identify appropriate parameters that are predictive of prognosis and to be able to translate the parameters easily into the clinical setting. Here, we reviewed possible predicting indicators for AFR, focusing on all the electrocardiogram indicators, such as P wave duration, PR interval and so on. It may provide valuable information for guiding clinical works.

Heart Rate Variability and Its Role in Predicting Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft

Background

An association between heart rate variability (HRV) and cardiac events in certain diseases has been demonstrated. However, the association with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is still controversial. This study aimed to investigate the association between HRV and new-onset AF in patients undergoing CABG during a 6-month follow-up.

Methods

This prospective study included 119 consecutive patients who underwent off-pump CABG. All patients were assessed using 24-hour Holter recordings 2 days before CABG and 1 week, 3 months, and 6 months postoperatively. HRV was analyzed, and AF was detected from its recordings.

Main results

In patients undergoing CABG, NYHA III increased the AF rate 7 days postoperatively, and advanced age and diabetes were associated with AF 6 months postoperatively. A reduction in time-domain measurements before surgery was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing AF seven days postoperatively; no association between preoperative HRV and AF was found at six months. Reduced preoperative HRV (SDNN (standard deviation of all normal-to-normal intervals [) < 50 ms) was an independent predictor of AF at 3 (AUC = 0.65) and 6 months (AUC = 0.62) following surgery.

Conclusion

A reduction in the time domain measurements before CABG was associated with a higher risk of new-onset AF at 7 days postoperatively but not at 6 months. An SDNN <50 ms was a weak independent predictor of a higher incidence of AF at 3 and 6 months post-surgery.

Electrocardiographic Morphology-Voltage-P-Wave-Duration (MVP) Score to Select Patients for Continuous Atrial Fibrillation Screening to Prevent Stroke

Morphology-voltage-P-wave-duration (MVP) score combining P-wave duration (PWD), P-wave voltage in lead I (PWVI), and interatrial block (IAB) has been demonstrated to predict atrial fibrillation (AF). Therefore, this study aimed to examine MVP score and its P-wave components as potential predictors of AF screening effects on stroke prevention. This was a secondary analysis of the LOOP Study (Atrial Fibrillation detected by Continuous ECG Monitoring using Implantable Loop Recorder to prevent Stroke in High-risk Individuals) which randomized older persons (aged 70 to 90 years) with additional stroke risk factors to either continuous monitoring with implantable loop recorder and anticoagulation upon detection of AF episodes ≥6 minutes (the intervention group), or usual care. A total of 5,759 participants were included in the present analysis, where PWD, PWVI, and IAB were determined through a computerized analysis of 12-lead electrocardiogram and further employed to calculate baseline MVP score (0 to 6) for each participant. In total, 305 (5.3%) had stroke or systemic embolism during follow-up, with a higher risk in the group with MVP score 5 to 6 than those having score 0 to 2 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.54 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 2.35]). This risk increase was mainly upheld by participants with IAB (HR 1.62 [95% CI 1.11 to 2.36] for IAB vs no IAB) and with longer PWD (HR 1.37 [95% CI 1.07 to 1.75] for >110 vs ≤110 ms). Compared with usual care, implantable loop recorder screening did not significantly reduce the risk of stroke or systemic embolism in any MVP risk categories (HR 0.80 [95% CI 0.60 to 1.08] for MVP score 0 to 2, 0.54 [95% CI 0.16 to 1.85] for MVP score 3 to 4, and 0.89 [95% CI 0.35 to 2.25] for MVP score 5 to 6; pinteraction = 0.78). In conclusion, a higher MVP score was associated with an increased stroke risk, but it did not demonstrate an association with effects of AF screening on stroke prevention. These findings should be considered hypothesis-generating and warrant further study.

Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation on Prolonged ECG Holter Monitoring: Results from the Multicenter Real-World SAFARI (Silent Atrial Fibrillation ANCE-Sicily Research Initiative) Study

BACKGROUND

The detection of subclinical/silent atrial fibrillation (SAF) in the general population is of the utmost importance, given its potential adverse consequences. Incident AF has been observed in 30% to 70% of patients with implanted devices, but its prevalence may indeed be lower in the general population. The prospective, multicentric, observational Silent Atrial Fibrillation ANCE Research Initiative (SAFARI) study aimed at assessing the SAF prevalence in a real-world outpatient setting by the means of a small, wearable, prolonged ECG Holter monitoring (>5 days) device (CGM HI 3-Lead ECG; CGM TELEMEDICINE, Piacenza, Italy).

METHODS

Patients ≥ 55 years of age at risk for AF were screened according to the inclusion criteria to undergo prolonged 3-lead ECG Holter monitoring. SAF episodes were classified as follows: Class A, <30 s; Class B, 30 to 299 s; and Class C, ≥300 s.

RESULTS

In total, 119 patients were enrolled (64 men; median age 71 (IQR 55-85) years). At a median of 13.5 (IQR 5-21) days of monitoring, SAF episodes were found in 19 patients (16%). A total of 10,552 arrhythmic episodes were registered, 6901 in Class A (n = 7 patients), 2927 in Class B (n = 3), and 724 in Class C (n = 9), (Class A vs. B and C, p < 0.001). This latter group had multiple (all-class) episodes, and two patients had >1000 episodes. There were no clinical, echocardiographic, or laboratory findings able to discriminate patients with SAF from those in sinus rhythm in univariate and multivariable analyses; of note is that the Class C patients showed a higher diastolic blood pressure, resting heart rate, and indexed LA volume.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a median of 13 days of Holter monitoring, the SAFARI study confirmed the usefulness of small wearable devices in detecting SAF episodes in real-world outpatients at risk for, but with no prior history of, AF.

Association of Mitral Regurgitation with Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Critically Ill Noncardiac Surgery Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in critically ill patients and can have serious consequences. Postoperative AF (POAF) in critically ill patients following noncardiac surgery has been understudied, contrary to cardiac procedures. Mitral regurgitation (MR) is associated with left ventricular dysfunction, which might contribute to the occurrence of AF in postoperative critically ill patients. This study aimed to investigate the association between MR and POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients and establish a new nomogram for the prediction of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients.

Patients and Methods

A prospective cohort of 2474 patients who underwent thoracic and general surgery was enrolled in this study. Data on preoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), electrocardiogram (ECG), and several commonly utilized scoring systems (CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST) and baseline clinical data were collected. Independent predictors were selected by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was constructed for POAF within 7 days after postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The ability of the MR-nomogram and other scoring systems to predict POAF was compared by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additional contributions were evaluated by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis.

Results

A total of 213 (8.6%) patients developed POAF within 7 days after ICU admission. Compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST scoring systems, MR-nomogram showed better predictive ability for POAF with an area under the ROC curve of 0.824 (95% confidence interval: 0.805-0.842, p < 0.001). The improvement of the MR-nomogram in predictive value was supported by NRI and IDI analysis. The net benefit of the MR nomogram was maximal in DCA.

Conclusion

MR is an independent risk factor of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients. The nomogram predicted POAF better than other scoring systems.

Atrial cardiomyopathy: Diagnosis, clinical implications and unresolved issues in anticoagulation therapy

Atrial cardiomyopathy (AC) is an evolving pathophysiological entity that has expanded our understanding regarding the atrium and its role in arrhythmogenesis and cardiac thromboembolism. The pathological myocardium in AC promotes arrhythmogenesis through mechanical dysfunction (hypocontractility, fibrosis), adverse alterations of the endothelium and secretion of prothrombotic factors (IL-6, IL-8, TNF-a). 'Red flags', indicative of AC, can be recognized either non-invasively by electrocardiography, echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging or invasively by high-density electroanatomical mapping as low bipolar voltage areas of the affected myocardium. Signs of AC have been strongly associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke, even embolic strokes of undetermined source, regardless of the coexistence of atrial fibrillation (AF). The underlying existence of AC has been negatively correlated with the success rate of catheter ablation of AF. The clinical value of AC is the provision of a novel pathway regarding the potential mechanisms of cerebrovascular events of cardiac thromboembolic origin. In addition, AC may serve as a risk stratification tool to predict the long-term responders of AF catheter ablation.

Improving detection and management of atrial fibrillation after ischaemic stroke in Glasgow (IMPROVE-AF): A quality improvement project

Introduction:

The use of cardiac monitoring to detect atrial fibrillation (AF) is routine after ischaemic stroke but is often delayed leaving patients at risk from undetected AF. We sought to improve the detection of AF by delivering early prolonged ‘in-house’ cardiac monitoring.

Patients and methods:

We collected 3-months of data of people with stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), but without AF, who underwent cardiac monitoring (Phase 1, pre-quality improvement project (QIP)). We then implemented an ‘in-house’ 7-day cardiac monitoring service for 12 months (Phase 2, during QIP).

Results:

We included 244 people in Phase 1 and 172 in Phase 2. In Phase 1, 232 (95%) people completed cardiac monitoring. Of these, new AF was detected in 10 (4%). Median time from stroke/TIA onset to availability of the monitoring report in Phase 1 was 50 (interquartile range (IQR): 24–123) days. In Phase 2, 166 (97%) of people completed 7-day cardiac monitoring, with new AF detected in 17 (10%). Median time from onset to availability of the report in Phase 2 was 12 (IQR: 9–15) days. In people with AF detected, ‘in-house’ monitoring reduced the time of stroke/TIA onset to anticoagulant commencement from 41 (Phase 1) to 14 (Phase 2) days.

Conclusions:

The QIP has improved AF detection, reduced delays associated with conventional cardiac monitoring and prompted early initiation of oral anticoagulation.

P Wave Parameters and Indices: A Critical Appraisal of Clinical Utility, Challenges, and Future Research-A Consensus Document Endorsed by the International Society of Electrocardiology and the International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology

Atrial cardiomyopathy, characterized by abnormalities in atrial structure and function, is associated with increased risk of adverse cardiovascular and neurocognitive outcomes, independent of atrial fibrillation. There exists a critical unmet need for a clinical tool that is cost-effective, easy to use, and that can diagnose atrial cardiomyopathy. P wave parameters (PWPs) reflect underlying atrial structure, size, and electrical activation; alterations in these factors manifest as abnormalities in PWPs that can be readily ascertained from a standard 12-lead ECG and potentially be used to aid clinical decision-making. PWPs include P wave duration, interatrial block, P wave terminal force in V₁, P wave axis, P wave voltage, P wave area, and P wave dispersion. PWPs can be combined to yield an index (P wave index), such as the morphology-voltage-P-wave duration ECG risk score. Abnormal PWPs have been shown in population-based cohort studies to be independently associated with higher risks of atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, sudden cardiac death, and dementia. Additionally, PWPs, either individually or in combination (as a P wave index), have been reported to enhance prediction of atrial fibrillation or ischemic stroke. To facilitate translation of PWPs to routine clinical practice, additional work is needed to standardize measurement of PWPs (eg, via semiautomated or automated measurement), confirm their reliability and predictive value, leverage novel approaches (eg, wavelet analysis of P waves and machine learning algorithms), and finally, define the risk-benefit ratio of specific interventions in high-risk individuals. Our ultimate goal is to repurpose the ubiquitous 12-lead ECG to advance the study, diagnosis, and treatment of atrial cardiomyopathy, thus overcoming critical challenges in prevention of cardiovascular disease and dementia.

A novel electrocardiographic parameter for the prediction of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass graft surgery "P wave peak time"

OBJECTIVES

Patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) have increased risk of both short- and long-term mortality and morbidity; therefore, prediction of POAF is crucial in the preoperative period of the patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Electrocardiography (ECG) is the simplest and cost-effective tool in the preoperative workup of the patients for the prediction of POAF. A newly defined ECG parameter P wave peak time (PWPT) has been shown as a marker of atrial fibrillation development in non-surgical patients and we investigated its role in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

METHOD

A total of 327 patients undergoing isolated or combined cardiac surgery were involved and the primary endpoint was defined as the development of POAF. The study population was divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of POAF. Groups were compared for both standard P wave parameters and for PWPT on surface ECG. The predictors of POAF were assessed by multivariate regression analysis.

RESULTS

The frequency of POAF was 20.4% (n = 67). P wave peak time in leads D2 (65.1 ± 11.8 vs 57.2 ± 10, p < 0.01) and V1 (57.8 ± 18 vs 44.8 ± 12.3, p < 0.01) were longer in patients with POAF. In multivariate regression analysis, PWPT in leads DII and V1 were independent predictors of POAF (OR: 1.11, 95%CI: 1.02-1.21, p = 0.01, OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.00-1.13, p = 0.03 respectively).

CONCLUSION

PWPT in leads DII and V1 can predict the development of POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Electrocardiographic biosignals to predict atrial fibrillation: Are we there yet?

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) continues to grow in an aging population, and its impact on both patients and the health care system has has made it a global burden. There are limited available options to detect individuals at risk of AF that may benefit from prevention and treatment strategies. The ECG may be an effective tool do so. In this work, we discuss the latest work by Hayiroğlu and colleagues related to this work and the use of novel ECG prediction tools to identify individuals individuals that could benefit from early and proactive screening, surveillance, and management strategies.

Predicting New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Following Isolated Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram

Objective

To select variables associated with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and develop a nomogram for risk prediction in a Chinese population.

Methods

The study retrospectively enrolled 4854 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG from February 2018 to September 2019, they were divided into derivation cohort and validation cohort with a 3:1 ratio according to the order of operation date. In the derivation cohort, significant variables were selected by use of the multivariate logistic backward stepwise regression analysis and a nomogram model was built on the strength of the results. The model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Besides, we compared the discriminative ability for POAF of the nomogram with established prediction models (CHA2DS2-VASc and HATCH scores) in the two cohorts.

Results

POAF occurred in 1025 (28.2%) out of 3641 patients in the derivation cohort, and in 337 (27.8%) out of 1213 patients in the validation cohort. A nomogram, composed of eight prognostic variables, namely age, sex, heart rate, hypertension, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50%, left atrial diameter (LAD) > 40mm, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) level, and on-pump surgery, was constructed from the derivation cohort. The nomogram had substantial discriminative ability in derivation and validation cohorts with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.661 (95% confidence interval, 0.642–0.681) and 0.665 (95% confidence interval, 0.631–0.699), respectively, and showed well-fitted calibration curves. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH and POAF scores, respectively, the nomogram had superior discrimination performance.

Conclusion

We constructed a novel nomogram with improved accuracy for predicting the risk of POAF following isolated CABG, which might help clinicians predict individual probability of POAF and achieve effective prophylaxis.