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Zarama V, Quintero JA, Barbosa MM, Rodriguez S, Angel AM, Muñoz AM, Muñoz JA, Maya-Portillo D, Rosso F. NEWS2, S/F-ratio and ROX-index at emergency department for the prediction of adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients: An external validation study. Am J Emerg Med 2024; 83:101-108. [PMID: 39002495 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2024.07.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2024] [Revised: 06/29/2024] [Accepted: 07/03/2024] [Indexed: 07/15/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the early and accurate identification of patients at risk of deterioration was crucial in overcrowded and resource-limited emergency departments. This study conducts an external validation for the evaluation of the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), the S/F ratio, and the ROX index at ED admission in a large cohort of COVID-19 patients from Colombia, South America, assessing the net clinical benefit with decision curve analysis. METHODS A prospective cohort study was conducted on 6907 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary care ED in Colombia. The study evaluated the diagnostic performance of NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index scores at ED admission using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis for the prediction of intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS We included 6907 patients who presented to the ED with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 2020 to November 2021. Mean age was 51 (35-65) years and 50.4% of patients were males. The rate of intensive care unit admission was 28%, and in-hospital death was 9.8%. All three scores have good discriminatory performance for the three outcomes based on the AUROC. S/F ratio showed miscalibration at low predicted probabilities and decision curve analysis indicated that the NEWS2 score provided a greater net benefit compared to other scores across at a 10% threshold to decide ED admission at a high-level of care facility. CONCLUSIONS The NEWS2, S/F ratio, and ROX index at ED admission have good discriminatory performances in COVID-19 patients for the prediction of adverse outcomes, but the NEWS2 score has a higher net benefit underscoring its clinical utility in optimizing patient management and resource allocation in emergency settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Virginia Zarama
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Fundación Valle del Lili Cali, Colombia; Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Icesi, Cali, Colombia.
| | - Jaime A Quintero
- Centro de Investigaciones Clínicas (CIC), Fundación Valle del Lili, Cali, Colombia
| | - Mario M Barbosa
- Centro de Investigaciones Clínicas (CIC), Fundación Valle del Lili, Cali, Colombia
| | - Sarita Rodriguez
- Centro de Investigaciones Clínicas (CIC), Fundación Valle del Lili, Cali, Colombia
| | - Ana M Angel
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Fundación Valle del Lili Cali, Colombia
| | - Angela M Muñoz
- Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Icesi, Cali, Colombia
| | - Juan A Muñoz
- Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Icesi, Cali, Colombia
| | | | - Fernando Rosso
- Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Icesi, Cali, Colombia; Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Fundación Valle del Lili, Cali, Colombia
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Pelagatti L, Fabiani G, De Paris A, Lagomarsini A, Paolucci E, Pepe F, Villanti M, Todde F, Matteini S, Caldi F, Pini R, Innocenti F. 4C mortality score and COVID-19 mortality risk score: an analysis in four different age groups of an Italian population. Intern Emerg Med 2024; 19:1717-1725. [PMID: 38393501 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-024-03551-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]
Abstract
To evaluate the prognostic stratification ability of 4C Mortality Score and COVID-19 Mortality Risk Score in different age groups. Retrospective study, including all patients, presented to the Emergency Department of the University Hospital Careggi, between February, 2020 and May, 2021, and admitted for SARS-CoV2. Patients were divided into four subgroups based on the quartiles of age distribution: patients < 57 years (G1, n = 546), 57-71 years (G2, n = 508), 72-81 years (G3, n = 552), and > 82 years (G4, n = 578). We calculated the 4C Mortality Score and COVID-19 Mortality Risk Score. The end-point was in-hospital mortality. In the whole population (age 68 ± 16 years), the mortality rate was 19% (n = 424), and increased with increasing age (G1: 4%, G2: 11%, G3: 22%, and G4: 39%, p < 0.001). Both scores were higher among non-survivors than survivors in all subgroups (4C-MS, G1: 6 [3-7] vs 3 [2-5]; G2: 10 [7-11] vs 7 [5-8]; G3: 11 [10-14] vs 10 [8-11]; G4: 13 [12-15] vs 11 [10-13], all p < 0.001; COVID-19 MRS, G1: 8 [7-9] vs 9 [9-11], G2: 10 [8-11] vs 11 [10-12]; G3: 11 [10-12] vs 12 [11-13]; G4: 11 [10-13] vs 13 [12-14], all p < 0.01). The ability of both scores to identify patients at higher risk of in-hospital mortality, was similar in different age groups (4C-MS: G1 0.77, G2 0.76, G3 0.68, G4 0.72; COVID-19 MRS: G1 0.67, G2 0.69, G3 0.69, G4 0.72, all p for comparisons between subgroups = NS). Both scores confirmed their good performance in predicting in-hospital mortality in all age groups, despite their different mortality rate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorenzo Pelagatti
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Ginevra Fabiani
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Anna De Paris
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Alessia Lagomarsini
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Elisa Paolucci
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Francesco Pepe
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Maurizio Villanti
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Francesca Todde
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Simona Matteini
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Francesca Caldi
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Riccardo Pini
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy
| | - Francesca Innocenti
- High-Dependency Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Lg. Brambilla 3, 50134, Florence, Italy.
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Boesing M, Lüthi-Corridori G, Büttiker D, Hunziker M, Jaun F, Vaskyte U, Brändle M, Leuppi JD. The Predictive Performance of Risk Scores for the Outcome of COVID-19 in a 2-Year Swiss Cohort. Biomedicines 2024; 12:1702. [PMID: 39200167 PMCID: PMC11351214 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines12081702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2024] [Revised: 07/22/2024] [Accepted: 07/29/2024] [Indexed: 09/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Various scoring systems are available for COVID-19 risk stratification. This study aimed to validate their performance in predicting severe COVID-19 course in a large, heterogeneous Swiss cohort. Scores like the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), CURB-65, 4C mortality score (4C), Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology score (COVID-SEIMC), and COVID Intubation Risk Score (COVID-IRS) were assessed in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. Predictive accuracy for severe course (defined as all-cause in-hospital death or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV)) was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC). The new 'COVID-COMBI' score, combining parameters from the top two scores, was also validated. This study included 1,051 patients (mean age 65 years, 60% male), with 162 (15%) experiencing severe course. Among the established scores, 4C had the best accuracy for predicting severe course (AUC 0.76), followed by COVID-IRS (AUC 0.72). COVID-COMBI showed significantly higher accuracy than all established scores (AUC 0.79, p = 0.001). For predicting in-hospital death, 4C performed best (AUC 0.83), and, for IMV, COVID-IRS performed best (AUC 0.78). The 4C and COVID-IRS scores were robust predictors of severe COVID-19 course, while the new COVID-COMBI showed significantly improved accuracy but requires further validation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Boesing
- University Institute of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Baselland, 4410 Liestal, Switzerland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Giorgia Lüthi-Corridori
- University Institute of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Baselland, 4410 Liestal, Switzerland
| | - David Büttiker
- University Institute of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Baselland, 4410 Liestal, Switzerland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Mireille Hunziker
- University Institute of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Baselland, 4410 Liestal, Switzerland
| | - Fabienne Jaun
- University Institute of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Baselland, 4410 Liestal, Switzerland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Ugne Vaskyte
- University Institute of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Baselland, 4410 Liestal, Switzerland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Michael Brändle
- Department of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Sankt Gallen, 9000 Sankt Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Jörg D. Leuppi
- University Institute of Internal Medicine, Cantonal Hospital Baselland, 4410 Liestal, Switzerland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
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Murthy SC, Gordon SM, Lowry AM, Blackstone EH. Evolution of serious and life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed: an observational study of mortality to 60 days after admission to a 15-hospital US health system. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e075028. [PMID: 38977360 PMCID: PMC11256047 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-075028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/10/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE In order to predict at hospital admission the prognosis of patients with serious and life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia, we sought to understand the clinical characteristics of hospitalised patients at admission as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, document their changing response to the virus and its variants over time, and identify factors most importantly associated with mortality after hospital admission. DESIGN Observational study using a prospective hospital systemwide COVID-19 database. SETTING 15-hospital US health system. PARTICIPANTS 26 872 patients admitted with COVID-19 to our Northeast Ohio and Florida hospitals from 1 March 2020 to 1 June 2022. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES 60-day mortality (highest risk period) after hospital admission analysed by random survival forests machine learning using demographics, medical history, and COVID-19 vaccination status, and viral variant, symptoms, and routine laboratory test results obtained at hospital admission. RESULTS Hospital mortality fell from 11% in March 2020 to 3.7% in March 2022, a 66% decrease (p<0.0001); 60-day mortality fell from 17% in May 2020 to 4.7% in May 2022, a 72% decrease (p<0.0001). Advanced age was the strongest predictor of 60-day mortality, followed by admission laboratory test results. Risk-adjusted 60-day mortality had all patients been admitted in March 2020 was 15% (CI 3.0% to 28%), and had they all been admitted in May 2022, 12% (CI 2.2% to 23%), a 20% decrease (p<0.0001). Dissociation between observed and predicted decrease in mortality was related to temporal change in admission patient profile, particularly in laboratory test results, but not vaccination status or viral variant. CONCLUSIONS Hospital mortality from COVID-19 decreased substantially as the pandemic evolved but persisted after hospital discharge, eclipsing hospital mortality by 50% or more. However, after accounting for the many, even subtle, changes across the pandemic in patients' demographics, medical history and particularly admission laboratory results, a patient admitted early in the pandemic and predicted to be at high risk would remain at high risk of mortality if admitted tomorrow.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sudish C Murthy
- Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | | | - Ashley M Lowry
- Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
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