Towards a common oil spill risk assessment framework – Adapting ISO 31000 and addressing uncertainties

Understanding microplastic pollution of marine ecosystem: a review

Microplastics are emerging as prominent pollutants across the globe. Oceans are becoming major sinks for these pollutants, and their presence is widespread in coastal regions, oceanic surface waters, water column, and sediments. Studies have revealed that microplastics cause serious threats to the marine ecosystem as well as human beings. In the past few years, many research efforts have focused on studying different aspects relating to microplastic pollution of the oceans. This review summarizes sources, migration routes, and ill effects of marine microplastic pollution along with various conventional as well as advanced methods for microplastics analysis and control. However, various knowledge gaps in detection and analysis require attention in order to understand the sources and transport of microplastics, which is critical to deploying mitigation strategies at appropriate locations. Advanced removal methods and an integrated approach are necessary, including government policies and stringent regulations to control the release of plastics.

Decolonising Environmental Risk Assessments of Potentially Polluting Wrecks: a Case Study of the Wreck of the USS Mississinewa in Ulithi Lagoon, Federated States of Micronesia

Millions of tonnes of oil lie entombed within wrecks from two world wars which, when released, can cause environmental devastation. Wrecks are predominantly risk assessed by the Global North Nations responsible, resulting in an epistemology that separates human from nature. This research aimed to decolonise risk assessments to capture the spatially heterogeneous nature of human vulnerability to oil pollution. Triangulation analysis of interviews and official reports relating to the USS Mississinewa oil spill identified three Global South issues a Eurocentric risk assessment failed to capture: region-specific meteorological conditions causing the leak, remoteness making external resources slow to arrive, and the impact of the fishery closure on traditional subsistence lifestyles. A vulnerability assessment is proposed to prioritise wrecks in susceptible locations. Recommendations are made for a collaborative approach to wreck management by including local voices, resisting the Global North assumption of generality, and recognising the priorities of those living with wrecks.

Assessment of wellbore integrity failure risk and hazardous zones in depleted reservoirs underground gas storage during the operation processes

Depleted reservoirs are widely used for underground gas storage due to their advantages of low construction cost and easy development. Under the influence of complex geological conditions and frequent operations, the integrity of the wells in depleted reservoirs is prone to failure, which would potentially lead to gas leakage. In this study, by using a finite element-based computational fluid dynamics model, we have developed evaluation criteria for assessing the severity of the occurred wellbore integrity failure and the risk of the un-occurred wellbore integrity failures respectively to identify hazardous zones potentially prone to wellbore integrity failure. The study results indicate that the gas storage wellbore integrity failure is prone to occur inside the wellbore structure in the direction of the minimum ground stress near the lower boundary of the formation interlayer. The wellbore integrity failure hazardous zones are mainly concentrated at the formation interlayer boundaries. The practical guidelines and solutions derived from current research results can provide an accurate direction for monitoring and protecting work of wellbore integrity and avoid environment pollution problems caused by natural gas leakage.

Modeling chronic oil pollution from ships

Stochastic simulations of virtual oil spills from ships were performed for the Adriatic Sea over 2017-2020, applying the European Marine Observation and Data Network vessel densities as a proxy for starting locations of operational spillage. The MEDSLIK-II oil spill model was run using high-resolution currents provided by the Copernicus Marine Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts winds. Chronic exposure to operational oil spills was reported in terms of hazard indices for five vessel groups: pleasure and passenger ships, cargo and service vessels, the fishing fleet, tankers, and other ships. The northernmost Adriatic expectedly showed the highest hazard values, including the areas of Trieste and Venice, where cargo and service ships were the dominant polluters. The Croatian coastal waters were more chronically polluted than the Italian coastal waters; the predominant contribution was from coastwise pleasure and passenger ships.

The bibliometric analysis and visualization mapping of net environmental benefit analysis (NEBA)

This paper aims to determine the worldwide research trends on searching queries of "oil spill* and risk assessment*" and "net environmental benefit analysis" and its most productive authors and journals. A bibliometric approach was performed to analyze publications including highly cited papers and only papers that were published in the Dimensions database from 2000 to 2022, April was selected. The necessary data were extracted from the Dimensions database and processed using visualization and mapping software such as VOSviewer 1.6.17 and Tableau Public 2021.1. The findings identified significant study fields, co-cited authors, country contributions, productive journals, as well as the most cited authors' articles. This study contributes significantly to the relevant studies as one of the few that utilizes bibliometric analysis as a network visualization and mapping technique for the analysis of one of the primary oil spill response decision-making tools and risk assessment sciences. The findings of this study can assist the researcher perform their research more effectively by providing insight into journal selection, contributing authors, research trends, countries, and keywords. Further research is recommended in light of longer period data contained in oil spill response strategies, oil spill modeling, or oil spill risk subjects.

Oil Spill Environmental Risk Assessment and Mapping in Coastal China Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) Data

The rapid expansion in shipping traffic, oil tankers, and oil field exploration in coastal and marine areas has, inevitably, resulted in the occurrence of many oil spill accidents. Oil spill accidents, which cause serious socio-economic, health, and environmental risks in coastal and marine areas, are a global concern. An oil spill pollution risk distribution map, combining multiple spill sources, is an effective tool by which to identify high-risk areas, which may help decision-makers in adopting contingency response and integrated coastal management. However, the assessment of oil spill distribution and risk assessment has been restricted, due to their heavy dependence on laboratory experiments and model simulations lacking reliable shipping data, which often derive inaccurate mapping results. This study combines the automatic identification system (AIS) and other data to precisely quantify the spatial extent of accident risk in coastal China. Based on oil quantity, oil spill rate, and accident probability, the ship, oil storage tank, submarine pipeline, and oil platform accidents spill risk index is analyzed. Next, combined with the sensitive degree of a coastal area, considering environmental and social issues, the oil spill environmental risk index is calculated. The oil spill pollution risk level is classified into five categories based on the oil spill pollution risk index, namely the low-risk zone, relatively low-risk zone, moderate-risk zone, relatively high-risk zone, and high-risk zone. The relatively high oil spill environmental risk concentration zone is located in the Bohai Sea, inter-border area between the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, the Yangtze River estuary, south of the Taiwan Strait, and the Pearl River estuary. The high-risk zone in the Bohai Sea is 36,018 km2 in area, with an average risk value of 32.23, whereas the high-risk area in the Pearl River estuary is only 14,007 km2. The high-risk area proportions in Tianjin are 23.5%, while those in Fujian, Hainan, Jiangsu, and Guangxi are very low. The low-risk area proportion in Hainan Province is 62%, while the value in Tianjin is only 2.9%. This study will be helpful in assisting decision-makers in mapping the influence area of oil spills and adopting the important strategies and effective management and conservation countermeasures for ship accidents in the coastal areas of China.

Environmental vulnerability to oil spills in Itapuã State Park, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: An approach using two-dimensional numerical simulation

The growing use of coastal areas for different economic purposes is responsible for increasing pollution by hydrocarbons in marine environments. As a consequence of these activities, accidents during fuel extraction, transport, and storage can occur, causing intense environmental degradation. Numerical modeling of the trajectory of oil stains becomes an important tool with low operational costs, providing powerful support to the government agencies in charge of risk management associated with possible oil accidents, by helping to generate scenarios and strategies for containment and cleaning of affected environments. In this sense, the aim of this study is to estimate environmental vulnerability to oil at beaches located in the Itapuã State Park (PEI), a Protection Conservation Unit. This work focused on describing a methodology to estimate the vulnerability of coastal areas, with emphasis on the fact that the study was carried out in a closed environment. For that, an approach was used based on the integration of: (1) an intrinsic variable to the environment; (2) a dynamic variable determined through diesel oil surface dispersion scenarios. Four hypothetical accident scenarios with 20 m³ of diesel oil were simulated in 2018, during five days of simulations with instant dumping in the navigation channel of the local waterway near the PEI. The results suggest the forcing of the field of intensity and direction of the local winds as preponderant for the dynamics of movement and structure of the spots, with the zonal and meridional components of the fields of superficial currents acting in this process as a secondary factor. The study showed that all beaches in the park are susceptible to contact with oil throughout the simulated year, with Pombas Beach, Pedreira Beach, and Onça Beach being affected in all simulated scenarios, which classifies them as very high vulnerability and defines them as priority protection areas.

A risk management framework for maritime Pollution Preparedness and Response: Concepts, processes and tools

Several risk management frameworks have been introduced in the literature for maritime Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR). However, in light of the actual needs of the competent authorities, there is still a lack of framework that is established on a sound risk conceptual basis, addresses the different risk management decision-making contexts of organizations, and provides tools for various risk management questions of this field. To alleviate the limits of existing approaches, this paper introduces a new risk management framework for this purpose, which was developed in cooperation with the competent authorities and other maritime experts. The framework adopts the risk-informed decision-making strategy and includes three aligned components. The first component provides a unified theoretical risk concept to the framework through an interpretation of the Society for Risk Analysis risk approach. The second consists of four ISO 31000:2018 standard based processes focused on different risk management decision-making contexts of the PPR organizations. The third comprises a set of practical risk assessment tools to generate the needed information. A case study provides an example of the functionality of this framework with integrated data from the northern Baltic Sea. To conclude, a risk concept is provided for the PPR authorities and their stakeholders as well as processes for managing the risk and tools for its assessment.

Stochastic oil spill modeling for environmental protection at the Port of Taranto (southern Italy)

We performed stochastic simulations of hypothetical oil spills from a single-point buoy mooring and subsea pipeline for the Port of Taranto given that this port is an essential strategic hub in the European logistic chain. Our methodology integrates (1) the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model coupled to a high-resolution hydrodynamic model run on an unstructured grid in operational forecasting mode; (2) a hypothetical oil spill scenario based on a historical pipeline rupture at the Port of Genoa, 2016; and (3) randomly sampling the environmental conditions over 2018-2020. The main oil drift was found to be directed southwesterly towards the outlet to the open sea. When oil is transported by highly variable currents, waves and turbulent mixing, it is exposed to multiple strandings and washing-offs from concrete constructions in the port. Consequently, oil tends to be dispersed almost isotropically over the Mar Grande, indicating low to moderate pollution indices.

Implementing Bayesian networks for ISO 31000:2018-based maritime oil spill risk management: State-of-art, implementation benefits and challenges, and future research directions

The risk of a large-scale oil spill remains significant in marine environments as international maritime transport continues to grow. The environmental as well as the socio-economic impacts of a large-scale oil spill could be substantial. Oil spill models and modeling tools for Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR) can support effective risk management. However, there is a lack of integrated approaches that consider oil spill risks comprehensively, learn from all information sources, and treat the system uncertainties in an explicit manner. Recently, the use of the international ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework has been suggested as a suitable basis for supporting oil spill PPR risk management. Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that express uncertainty in a probabilistic form and can thus support decision-making processes when risks are complex and data are scarce. While BNs have increasingly been used for oil spill risk assessment (OSRA) for PPR, no link between the BNs literature and the ISO 31000:2018 framework has previously been made. This study explores how Bayesian risk models can be aligned with the ISO 31000:2018 framework by offering a flexible approach to integrate various sources of probabilistic knowledge. In order to gain insight in the current utilization of BNs for oil spill risk assessment and management (OSRA-BNs) for maritime oil spill preparedness and response, a literature review was performed. The review focused on articles presenting BN models that analyze the occurrence of oil spills, consequence mitigation in terms of offshore and shoreline oil spill response, and impacts of spills on the variables of interest. Based on the results, the study discusses the benefits of applying BNs to the ISO 31000:2018 framework as well as the challenges and further research needs.

The Landscape of Risk Communication Research: A Scientometric Analysis

Risk communication is a significant research domain with practical importance in supporting societal risk governance and informed private decision making. In this article, a high-level analysis of the risk communication research domain is performed using scientometrics methods and visualization tools. Output trends and geographical patterns are identified, and patterns in scientific categories determined. A journal distribution analysis provides insights into dominant journals and the domain's intellectual base. Thematic clusters and temporal evolution of focus topics are obtained using a terms analysis, and a co-citation analysis provides insights into the evolution of research fronts and key documents. The results indicate that the research volume grows exponentially, with by far most contributions originating from Western countries. The domain is highly interdisciplinary, rooted in psychology and social sciences, and branching mainly into medicine and environmental sciences. Narrative themes focus on risk communication in medical and societal risk governance contexts. The domain originated from public health and environmental concerns, with subsequent research fronts addressing risk communication concepts and models. Applied research fronts are associated with environmental hazards, public health, medical risks, nuclear power, and emergency response to various natural hazards. Based on the results, various avenues for future research are described.

Environmental Management System for the Analysis of Oil Spill Risk Using Probabilistic Simulations. Application at Tarragona Monobuoy

Oil spill accidents during port operations are one of the main hydrocarbon pollution threats for coastal waters. Appropriate environmental risk assessment and pollution events management tools are needed to achieve sustainability and environmental protection in port activity. Recent developments in monitoring techniques and accurate meteo-oceanographic prediction systems have been implemented in many ports, providing tools for environmental management. A novel method based on meteo-oceanographic operational services, in conjunction with Monte Carlo experiments using an oil spill model, is implemented to perform probabilistic maps of potential pollution events. Tarragona port area was chosen as the study case for three reasons: it accommodates a hub of petrochemical industry, the availability of high-resolution wind and water current data, and previous studies at the area offer the possibility to check the results’ accuracy. The interpretation of the impact probability maps reveals a specific pattern explained by the mean hydrodynamic conditions and the energetic north-westerly wind conditions. The impact probability maps may enhance efficiency in the environmental management of port waters and nearby coastal areas, reducing the negative impact of pollutant discharges.

A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development, application and evaluation

Persian Gulf is a semi-enclosed highly saline reverse estuary that is exposed to the risk of oil spills in offshore oil and gas activities. In the early 2000s, a specific version of NOAA's Trajectory Analysis Planner (TAP II) was developed for Persian Gulf to assist regional organizations in preparing oil spill contingency plans. In this research, a new stochastic model is developed to cover the limitations of TAP II. The new model is based on an advanced trajectory model, which is now linked with high resolution spatiotemporal data of the wind and sea current. In a case study, the developed model is compared with TAP II, and evaluated by multiple tests designed for analysis of uncertainty, sensitivity, reliability and variability. The case study proved the applicability of the new model, and the evaluation tests provided useful information for the future development of the model.

A state-of-the-art model for spatial and stochastic oil spill risk assessment: A case study of oil spill from a shipwreck

Oil spills are serious environmental issues that potentially can cause adverse effects on marine ecosystems. In some marine areas, like the Baltic Sea, there is a large number of wrecks from the first half of the 20th century, and recent monitoring and field work have revealed release of oil from some of these wrecks. The risk posed by a wreck is governed by its condition, hazardous substances contained in the wreck and the state of the surrounding environment. Therefore, there is a need for a common standard method for estimating the risks associated with different wrecks. In this work a state-of-the-art model is presented for spatial and stochastic risk assessment of oil spills from wrecks, enabling a structured approach to include the complex factors affecting the risk values. A unique feature of this model is its specific focus on uncertainty, facilitating probabilistic calculation of the total risk as the integral expected sum of many possible consequences. A case study is performed in Kattegat at the entrance region to the Baltic Sea to map the risk from a wreck near Sweden. The developed model can be used for oil spill risk assessment in the marine environment all over the world.

Response planning for accidental oil spills in Persian Gulf: A decision support system (DSS) based on consequence modeling

Different causes lead to accidental oil spills from fixed and mobile sources in the marine environment. Therefore, it is essential to have a systematic plan for mitigating oil spill consequences. In this research, a general DSS is proposed for passive and active response planning in Persian Gulf, before and after a spill. The DSS is based on NOAA's advanced oil spill model (GNOME), which is now linked with credible met-ocean datasets of CMEMS and ECMWF. The developed open-source tool converts the results of the Lagrangian oil spill model to quantitative parameters such as mean concentration and time of impact of oil. Using them, two new parameters, emergency response priority number (ERPN) and risk index (RI), are defined and used for response planning. The tool was tested in both deterministic and probabilistic modes, and found to be useful for evaluation of emergency response drills and risk-based prioritization of coastal areas.

Taiwan's legal framework for marine pollution control and responses to marine oil spills and its implementation on T.S. Taipei cargo shipwreck salvage

Many shipwreck events occur in the neighboring areas of Taiwan due to the volume of maritime traffic and geographical conditions around Taiwan. The oil spills from such events can be devastating for the surrounding sea and coastal areas. The government realized the importance of marine pollution prevention and enforced the Marine Pollution Control Act and the Major Marine Oil Pollution Emergency Response Plan to mitigate the impact of oil spill pollution. The T.S. Taipei shipwreck highlighted the effectiveness of the national marine pollution prevention system. Inter-departmental cooperation and collaboration with private sectors are the keys for effective response. This article is the first detailed documentation of an oil spill response for a maritime incident from the beginning to the final termination of shipwreck removal. It shows the people in Taiwan intend to collaborate with other states to make a significant contribution to marine environment conservation and sustainability.

Probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells in Persian Gulf

Oil spills in the marine environment can have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts may be of transnational nature, and this makes the oil spill problem an international issue. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a common structured methodology for oil spill risk assessment. In this research, a general framework is presented for probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells. A case study is also performed in Persian Gulf to quantify the risk posed by 357 offshore wells to the near-shore receptors. First, thousands of hypothetical spill scenarios of different volumes are defined and simulated using a Lagrangian particle tracking model. Then, the result of the simulations is statistically processed to generate the risk networks and risk maps. The result of this research shed light on the importance of the pattern of environmental forcing elements and the frequency of spills in oil spill risk assessment.

Modelling oil plumes from subsurface spills

An oil plume model to simulate the behavior of oil from spills located at any given depth below the sea surface is presented, following major modifications to a plume model developed earlier by Malačič (2001) and drawing on ideas in a paper by Yapa and Zheng (1997). The paper presents improvements in those models and numerical testing of the various parameters in the plume model. The plume model described in this paper is one of the numerous modules of the well-established MEDSLIK oil spill model. The deep blowout scenario of the MEDEXPOL 2013 oil spill modelling exercise, organized by REMPEC, has been applied using the improved oil plume module of the MEDSLIK model and inter-comparison with results having the oil spill source at the sea surface are discussed.