Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework

Assessing the impacts of recreation on the spatial and temporal activity of mammals in an isolated alpine protected area

The management objectives of many protected areas must meet the dual mandates of protecting biodiversity while providing recreational opportunities. It is difficult to balance these mandates because it takes considerable effort to monitor both the status of biodiversity and impacts of recreation. Using detections from 45 camera traps deployed between July 2019 and September 2021, we assessed the potential impacts of recreation on spatial and temporal activity for 8 medium- and large-bodied terrestrial mammals in an isolated alpine protected area: Cathedral Provincial Park, British Columbia, Canada. We hypothesised that some wildlife perceive a level of threat from people, such that they avoid 'risky times' or 'risky places' associated with human activity. Other species may benefit from associating with people, be it through access to anthropogenic resource subsidies or filtering of competitors/predators that are more human-averse (i.e., human shield hypothesis). Specifically, we predicted that large carnivores would show the greatest segregation from people while mesocarnivores and ungulates would associate spatially with people. We found spatial co-occurrence between ungulates and recreation, consistent with the human shield hypothesis, but did not see the predicted negative relationship between larger carnivores and humans, except for coyotes (Canis latrans). Temporally, all species other than cougars (Puma concolor) had diel activity patterns significantly different from that of recreationists, suggesting potential displacement in the temporal niche. Wolves (Canis lupus) and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) showed shifts in temporal activity away from people on recreation trails relative to off-trail areas, providing further evidence of potential displacement. Our results highlight the importance of monitoring spatial and temporal interactions between recreation activities and wildlife communities, in order to ensure the effectiveness of protected areas in an era of increasing human impacts.

Use of the IMET tool in the evaluation of protected area management effectiveness in Central Africa

Protected areas play a paramount role in counteracting the negative effects of human activity on the environment. Without good management effectiveness they might not be able to fulfill their mission. The tools for management effectiveness assessments that are currently most widely used struggle to provide sufficient depth of analysis, present the situation with sufficient breadth of indicators, provide necessary objectivity in identifying challenges during the assessment, and suggesting possible paths for improvement. The Integrated Management Effectiveness Tool (IMET), a novel tool for management effectiveness, is introduced in the article. The purpose of the article is to show that IMET offers instruments for a more in-depth analysis when compared to other protected areas management effectiveness assessment methodologies. Furthermore, the article demonstrates how the introduction of instruments that aid in decision-making and encourage a results-oriented approach can be particularly beneficial in enhancing managerial effectiveness. Additionally, it is asserted that IMET enhances planning and monitoring by incorporating the necessary components into a system of Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation. IMET has been tested in the field. Ten protected areas from Central Africa (CA) were selected and the tool demonstrated good properties in discriminating between well-performing protected areas and those with a room for improvement. The initial results have pointed to challenges in the management effectiveness dimensions of inputs and process that the studied protected areas are facing. In the long-run IMET is expected to support transition from merely routine management to results-oriented management of protected areas.

Assessing the Effects of Landscape Change on the Occupancy Dynamics of the Greater White-Toothed Shrew Crocidura russula

Land-use change is the main driver of biodiversity loss in the Mediterranean basin. New socio-economic conditions produced a rewilding process so that cultural landscapes are being invaded by more natural habitats. We analyze the effects of landscape change on the demography and the spatial distribution of Crocidura russula in six protected areas of the western Mediterranean basin. The study was conducted in the period 2008–2020 on 19 live trapping plots representing the three main natural habitats of the area (scrubland, pinewood, and holm oak woodland). We used a multiscale approach to ensure that the scale of response matched landscape structure (from plot to landscape) using either vegetation profiles (LiDAR) and land use data obtained from years 2007 and 2017. Statistical models (multiple-season single-species occupancy models) showed that C. russula populations were strongly associated to habitat features at the plot level. These models were used to predict occupancy at sampling units for the whole study area (850 km²), showing contrasting trends that shifted at relatively small spatial scales (expansions and retractions of species ranges). Parks showing extreme scrubland encroachment (−8% of area) and afforestation (+6%) significantly reduced habitat suitability for shrews and reductions in occupancy (−5%). Results would indicate faster changes in the spatial distribution of the target species than previously expected on the basis of climate change, driven by fast landscape changes.

Can reductions in water residence time be used to disrupt seasonal stratification and control internal loading in a eutrophic monomictic lake?

Anthropogenic eutrophication caused by excess loading of nutrients, especially phosphorus (P), from catchments is a major cause of lake water quality degradation. The release of P from bed sediments to the water column, termed internal loading, can exceed catchment P load in eutrophic lakes, especially those that stratify during warm summer periods. Managing internal P loading is challenging, and although a range of approaches have been implemented, long-term success is often limited, requiring lake-specific solutions. Here, we assess the manipulation of lake residence time to inhibit internal loading in Elterwater, a shallow stratifying lake in the English Lake District, UK. Since 2016, additional inflowing water has been diverted into the inner basin of Elterwater to reduce its water residence time, with the intention of limiting the length of the stratified period and reducing internal loading. Combining eight years of field data in a Before-After-Control-Impact study with process-based hydrodynamic modelling enabled the quantification of the residence time intervention effects on stratification length, water column stability, and concentrations of chlorophyll a and P. Annual water residence time was reduced during the study period by around 40% (4.9 days). Despite this change, the lake continued to stratify and developed hypolimnetic anoxia. As a result, there was little significant change in phosphorus (as total or soluble reactive phosphorus) or chlorophyll a concentrations. Summer stratification length was 2 days shorter and 7% less stable with the intervention. Our results suggest that the change to water residence time in Elterwater was insufficient to induce large enough physical changes to improve water quality. However, the minor physical changes suggest the management measure had some impact and that larger changes in water residence time may have the potential to induce reductions in internal loading. Future assessments of management requirements should combine multi-year observations and physical lake modelling to provide improved understanding of the intervention effect size required to alter the physical structure of the lake, leading to increased hypolimnetic oxygen and reduced potential for internal loading.

Sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau of China

CONTEXT

Climate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change's effect on ecosystem services.

OBJECTIVES

This study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change's effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning.

METHODS

We used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.

RESULTS

Carbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

This study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01320-9.

Accessing habitat suitability and connectivity for the westernmost population of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus, Blanford, 1877) based on climate changes scenarios in Iran

Climate change, as an emerging phenomenon, has led to changes in the distribution, movement, and even risk of extinction of various wildlife species and this has raised concerns among conservation biologists. Different species have two options in the face of climate change, either to adopt or follow their climatic niche to new places through the connectivity of habitats. The modeling of interpatch landscape communications can serve as an effective decision support tool for wildlife managers. This study was conducted to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution and habitat connectivity of the endangered subspecies of Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) in the southern and southeastern Iran. The presence points of the species were collected in Provinces of Kerman, Hormozgan, and Sistan-Baluchestan. Habitat modeling was done by the Generalized Linear Model, and 3 machine learning models including Maximum Entropy, Back Propagation based artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. In order to achieve the ensemble model, the results of the mentioned models were merged based on the method of "accuracy rate as weight" derived from their validation. To construct pseudo-absence points for the use in the mentioned models, the Ensemble model of presence-only models was used. The modeling was performed using 15 habitat variables related to climatic, vegetation, topographic, and anthropogenic parameters. The three general circulation models of BCC-CSM1, CCSM4, and MRI-CGCM3 were selected under the two scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by 2070. To investigate the effect of climate change on the habitat connections, the protected areas of 3 provinces were considered as focal nodes and the connections between them were established based on electrical circuit theory and Pairwise method. The true skill statistic was employed to convert the continuous suitability layers to binary suitable/unsuitable range maps to assess the effectiveness of the protected areas in the coverage of suitable habitats for the species. Due to the high power of the stochastic forest model in determining the importance of variables, this method was used. The results showed that presence/absence models were successful in the implementation and well distinguished the points of presence and pseudo-absence from each other. Based on the random forests model, the variables of Precipitation of Driest Quarter, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Temperature Annual Range have the greatest impact on the habitat suitability. Comparing the modeling findings to the realities of the species distribution range indicated that the suitable habitats are located in areas with high humidity and rainfall, which are mostly in the northern areas of Bandar Abbas, south of Kerman, and west and south of Sistan-Baluchestan. The area of suitable habitats, in the MRI-CGCM3 (189731 Km2) and CCSM4 (179007 Km2) models under the RCP2.6 scenario, is larger than the current distribution (174001 Km2). However, in terms of the performance of protected areas, the optimal coverage of the species by the boundary of the protected areas, under each of the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, is less than the present time. According to the electric circuit theory, connecting the populations in the protected areas of Sistan-Baluchestan province to those in the northern Hormozgan and the southern Kerman would be based on the crossing through the heights of Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan provinces and the plains between these heights would be the movement pinch points under the current and future scenarios. Populations in the protected areas of Kerman have higher quality patch connections than that of the other two provinces. The areas such as Sang-e_Mes, Kouh_Shir, Zaryab, and Bahr_Aseman in Kerman Province and Kouhbaz and Geno in Hormozgan Province can provide suitable habitats for the species in the distribution models. The findings revealed that the conservation of the heights along with the caves inside them could be a protective priority to counteract the effects of climate change on the species.

Park, Fish, Salt and Marshes: Participatory Mapping and Design in a Watery Uncommons

The Franks Tract State Recreation Area (Franks Tract) is an example of a complex contemporary park mired in ecological and socio-political contestation of what it is and should be. Located in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, it is a central hub in California’s immense and contentious water infrastructure; an accidental shallow lake on subsided land due to unrepaired levee breaks; a novel ecosystem full of ‘invasive’ species; a world-class bass fishing area; and a water transportation corridor. Franks Tract is an example of an uncommons: a place where multiple realities (or ontologies) exist, negotiate and co-create one another. As a case study, this article focuses on a planning effort to simultaneously improve water quality, recreation and ecology in Franks Tract through a state-led project. The article examines the iterative application of participatory mapping and web-based public surveys within a broader, mixed method co-design process involving state agencies, local residents, regional stakeholders, consultant experts and publics. We focus on what was learned in this process by all involved, and what might be transferable in the methods. We conclude that reciprocal iterative change among stakeholders and designers was demonstrated across the surveys, based on shifts in stakeholder preferences as achieved through iterative revision of design concepts that better addressed a broad range of stakeholder values and concerns. Within this reconciliation, the uncommons was retained, rather than suppressed.

Population dynamics of small endotherms under global change: Greater white-toothed shrews Crocidura russula in Mediterranean habitats

Small endotherms would be especially exposed to main global change drivers (habitat and climate changes) but would also be able to withstand them by adjusting population dynamics locally to changing climate- and habitat-driven food and predation conditions. We analyse the relative importance of changes in climate (mean and variability, including relevant time-lags) and habitat conditions on the abundance, age structure and growth rate of Mediterranean populations of a small endotherm, the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, along a 10-year period (2008-2017). Habitat type and season were the key factors shaping shrew population dynamics, which showed consistent peak numbers in open habitats in autumn, after the spring-summer reproductive period. Significant increases in aridity (increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall) along the study period did not explain variation in shrew numbers, although short-term variations in abundance were negatively related to relative air humidity and temperature over three last months prior to the surveys. Overall, ongoing climate change have not yet affected shrew population dynamics in its core areas of the Mediterranean region, in spite of expectations based on climate change rate in this region and small endotherm sensitivity to these changes. Reliance on open habitats with lower predation pressure would explain the resilience of shrew populations to climate change. However, current trends of land use change (land abandonment and afforestation) threaten Mediterranean open habitats, so that resilience would not last for long if these trends are not counteracted.

Climate Change Adaptation in Natural World Heritage Sites: A Triage Approach

Climate change is a certainty, but the degree and rate of change, as well as impacts of those changes are highly site-specific. Natural World Heritage sites represent a treasure to be managed and sustained for all humankind. Each World Heritage site is so designated on the basis of one or more Outstanding Universal Values. Because climate change impacts are site-specific, adaptation to sustain Universal Values also must be specific. As such, climate change adaptation is a wicked problem, with no clear action strategies available. Further, adaptation resources are limited at every site. Each site management team must decide which adaptations are appropriate investments. A triage approach guides that evaluation. Some impacts will be so large and/or uncertain that the highest probability of adaptation success comes from a series of uncertain actions that reduce investment risk. Others will be small, certain, comfortable and yet have low probable impact on the Universal Value. A triage approach guides the management team toward highest probable return on investment, involving stakeholders from the surrounding landscape, advancing engagement and communication, and increasing transparency and accountability.

Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change

Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards "future-oriented conservation" over the long term.

Socioeconomic differences among resident, users and neighbour populations of a protected area in the Brazilian dry forest

Protected areas are an important strategy to safeguard biodiversity. However, if social development is not considered, biological conservation targets may not be achieved. In this empirical study, we assess the relationship between poverty and conservation goals in dry forests within a 62,000-ha Brazilian National Park (Caatinga biome). We conducted 81 structured household interviews between January and July of 2016 to assess socioeconomic, resource management and land-use variables. We used non-parametric analysis of variance to test for differences in socioecological variables among families living inside and outside the Park and both (double dwelling). The majority of families (76%) residing inside the Park were living below the poverty line while less than 14% in outside and double dwelling residences faced the same issue. Families living inside the park had lower socioeconomic conditions such as limited water availability, poor house infrastructure, low income, and high dependence on firewood than outside and double dwelling families. They were also more dependent on external financial support and natural resources. We found that failures in protected areas inception and implementation have driven people towards a mutually reinforcing and declining situation in which negative socioeconomic outcomes are associated with nature degradation. Therefore, our results suggest that the future of dry forests, characterized worldwide by the presence of low-income populations, will be largely dependent on conservation strategies that address poverty alleviation and human well-being.

Energy efficiency and reduction of CO2 emissions from campsites management in a protected area

Campsites can be a pollution source, mainly due to the energy consumption. In addition, the green areas, thanks to the direct CO₂ sequestration and the shading, indirectly prevent the CO₂ emissions related to energy consumption. The methodology presented in this paper allowed assessing the annual CO₂ emissions directly related to the campsite management and the consequent environmental impact in campsite clusters in Tuscany. The software i-Tree Canopy was exploited, enabling to evaluate in terms of "canopy" the tonnes of CO₂ sequestered by the vegetation within each campsite. Energy and water consumptions from 2012 to 2015 were assessed for each campsite. As far as the distribution of sequestered CO₂ is concerned, the campsites ranking was in accordance to their size. According to the indicator "T-Tree" or canopy cover, a larger area of the canopy cover allows using less outdoor areas covered by trees for the sequestration of the remaining amount of pollutants. The analysis shows that the considered campsites, that are located in a highly naturalistic Park, present significant positive aspects both in terms of CO₂ emission reductions and of energy efficiency. However, significant margins of improvement are also possible and they were analysed in the paper.