Supermarket/hypermarket opportunistic screening for atrial fibrillation (SHOPS-AF) using sensors embedded in the handles of supermarket trolleys: A feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, cognitive decline, and healthcare costs but is often asymptomatic and undiagnosed. There is currently no national screening program for AF. The advent of validated hand-held devices allows AF to be detected in non-healthcare settings, enabling screening to be undertaken within the community.

METHOD AND RESULTS

In this novel observational study, we embedded a MyDiagnostick single lead ECG sensor into the handles of shopping trolleys in four supermarkets in the Northwest of England: 2155 participants were recruited. Of these, 231 participants either activated the sensor or had an irregular pulse, suggesting AF. Some participants agreed to use the sensor but refused to provide their contact details, or consent to pulse assessment. In addition, some data were missing, resulting in 203 participants being included in the final analyses. Fifty-nine participants (mean age 73.6 years, 43% female) were confirmed or suspected of having AF; 20 were known to have AF and 39 were previously undiagnosed. There was no evidence of AF in 115 participants and the remaining 46 recordings were non-diagnostic, mainly due to artefact. Men and older participants were significantly more likely to have newly diagnosed AF. Due to the number of non-diagnostic ECGs (n = 46), we completed three levels of analyses, excluding all non-diagnostic ECGs, assuming all non-diagnostic ECGs were masking AF, and assuming all non-diagnostic ECGs were not AF. Based on the results of the three analyses, the sensor's sensitivity (95% CI) ranged from 0.70 to 0.93; specificity from 0.15 to 0.97; positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) ranged from 0.24 to 0.56 and 0.55 to 1.00, respectively. These values should be interpreted with caution, as the ideal reference standard on 1934 participants was imperfect.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates that the public will engage with AF screening undertaken as part of their daily routines using hand-held devices. Sensors can play a key role in identifying asymptomatic patients in this way, but the technology must be further developed to reduce the quantity of non-diagnostic ECGs.

Characteristics and outcomes of prehospital and emergency department surgical airways

Objectives

The surgical airway is a high acuity, low occurrence procedure. Data on the complications and outcomes of surgical airways are limited. Our primary objective was to describe immediate complications, late complications, and clinical outcomes of patients who underwent a surgical airway procedure in the prehospital or emergency department (ED) setting.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective chart review of patients ≥14 years at an academic medical center who underwent a surgical airway procedure in the ED, the prehospital setting, or at a referring ED prior to interfacility transfer. We identified cases from keyword searches of prehospital text pages and hospital electronic medical records from June 1, 2008 to July 1, 2022. Manual chart review was used to confirm inclusion and determine patient and procedure characteristics. Outcomes included immediate complications, delayed in-hospital complications, and neurologic disability as defined by Modified Rankin Score (mRS) at discharge.

Results

We identified 63 patients (34 prehospital, 11 ED, and 18 referring ED). Immediate complications included mainstem intubation (46.0%) and bleeding that required direct pressure (23.4%). Overall, 29 patients (46%) died after arrival to the hospital. Of the patients surviving to hospital admission, 25 (48%) had an airway-related complication. Nine complications were deemed directly related to technical components of the procedure. Of the patients who survived to discharge, 18 (52.9%) had poor neurologic function (mRS 4-5).

Conclusion

Procedural complications, mortality, and poor neurologic function were common following a surgical airway procedure in the prehospital or ED setting. Most patients surviving to discharge had a moderate to severe neurologic disability.

Interaction of heart failure and stroke: A clinical consensus statement of the ESC Council on Stroke, the Heart Failure Association (HFA) and the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis

Heart failure (HF) is a major disease in our society that often presents with multiple comorbidities with mutual interaction and aggravation. The comorbidity of HF and stroke is a high risk condition that requires particular attention to ensure early detection of complications, efficient diagnostic workup, close monitoring, and consequent treatment of the patient. The bi-directional interaction between the heart and the brain is inherent in the pathophysiology of HF where HF may be causal for acute cerebral injury, and - in turn - acute cerebral injury may induce or aggravate HF via imbalanced neural and neurovegetative control of cardiovascular regulation. The present document represents the consensus view of the ESC Council on Stroke, the Heart Failure Association and the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis to summarize current insights on pathophysiological interactions of the heart and the brain in the comorbidity of HF and stroke. Principal aspects of diagnostic workup, pathophysiological mechanisms, complications, clinical management in acute conditions and in long-term care of patients with the comorbidity are presented and state-of-the-art clinical management and current evidence from clinical trials is discussed. Beside the physicians perspective, also the patients values and preferences are taken into account. Interdisciplinary cooperation of cardiologists, stroke specialists, other specialists and primary care physicians is pivotal to ensure optimal treatment in acute events and in continued long-term treatment of these patients. Key consensus statements are presented in a concise overview on mechanistic insights, diagnostic workup, prevention and treatment to inform clinical acute and continued care of patients with the comorbidity of HF and stroke.

Changing Severity and Epidemiology of Adults Hospitalized With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States After Introduction of COVID-19 Vaccines, March 2021-August 2022

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the changing epidemiology of adults hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) informs research priorities and public health policies.

METHODS

Among adults (≥18 years) hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed, acute COVID-19 between 11 March 2021, and 31 August 2022 at 21 hospitals in 18 states, those hospitalized during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron-predominant period (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/BA.5) were compared to those from earlier Alpha- and Delta-predominant periods. Demographic characteristics, biomarkers within 24 hours of admission, and outcomes, including oxygen support and death, were assessed.

RESULTS

Among 9825 patients, median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 60 years (47-72), 47% were women, and 21% non-Hispanic Black. From the Alpha-predominant period (Mar-Jul 2021; N = 1312) to the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineage-predominant period (Jun-Aug 2022; N = 1307): the percentage of patients who had ≥4 categories of underlying medical conditions increased from 11% to 21%; those vaccinated with at least a primary COVID-19 vaccine series increased from 7% to 67%; those ≥75 years old increased from 11% to 33%; those who did not receive any supplemental oxygen increased from 18% to 42%. Median (IQR) highest C-reactive protein and D-dimer concentration decreased from 42.0 mg/L (9.9-122.0) to 11.5 mg/L (2.7-42.8) and 3.1 mcg/mL (0.8-640.0) to 1.0 mcg/mL (0.5-2.2), respectively. In-hospital death peaked at 12% in the Delta-predominant period and declined to 4% during the BA.4/BA.5-predominant period.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to adults hospitalized during early COVID-19 variant periods, those hospitalized during Omicron-variant COVID-19 were older, had multiple co-morbidities, were more likely to be vaccinated, and less likely to experience severe respiratory disease, systemic inflammation, coagulopathy, and death.

Protection of Messenger RNA Vaccines Against Hospitalized Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Adults Over the First Year Following Authorization in the United States

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines were authorized in the United States in December 2020. Although vaccine effectiveness (VE) against mild infection declines markedly after several months, limited understanding exists on the long-term durability of protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalization.

METHODS

Case-control analysis of adults (≥18 years) hospitalized at 21 hospitals in 18 states 11 March-15 December 2021, including COVID-19 case patients and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction-negative controls. We included adults who were unvaccinated or vaccinated with 2 doses of a mRNA vaccine before the date of illness onset. VE over time was assessed using logistic regression comparing odds of vaccination in cases versus controls, adjusting for confounders. Models included dichotomous time (<180 vs ≥180 days since dose 2) and continuous time modeled using restricted cubic splines.

RESULTS

A total of 10 078 patients were included, 4906 cases (23% vaccinated) and 5172 controls (62% vaccinated). Median age was 60 years (interquartile range, 46-70), 56% were non-Hispanic White, and 81% had ≥1 medical condition. Among immunocompetent adults, VE <180 days was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88-91) versus 82% (95% CI, 79-85) at ≥180 days (P < .001). VE declined for Pfizer-BioNTech (88% to 79%, P < .001) and Moderna (93% to 87%, P < .001) products, for younger adults (18-64 years) (91% to 87%, P = .005), and for adults ≥65 years of age (87% to 78%, P < .001). In models using restricted cubic splines, similar changes were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In a period largely predating Omicron variant circulation, effectiveness of 2 mRNA doses against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was largely sustained through 9 months.

Decision Support to Improve Critical Care Services Documentation in an Academic Emergency Department

OBJECTIVES

Critical care services (CCS) documentation affects billing, operations, and research. No studies exist on documentation decision support (DDS) for CCS in the emergency department (ED). We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of a DDS tool built to improve CCS documentation at an academic ED.

METHODS

This quality improvement study reports the prospective design, implementation, and evaluation of a novel DDS tool for CCS documentation at an academic ED. CCS-associated ED diagnoses triggered a message to appear within the physician note attestation workflow for any patient seen in the adult ED. The alert raised awareness of CCS-associated diagnoses without recommending specific documentation practices. The message disappeared from the note automatically once signed. We measured current procedural terminology (CPT) codes 99291 or 99292 (representing CCS rendered) for 8 months before and after deployment to identify CCS documentation rates. We performed state-space Bayesian time-series analysis to evaluate the causal effect of our intervention on CCS documentation capture. We used monthly ED volume and monthly admission rates as covariate time-series for model generation.

RESULTS

The study included 92,350 ED patients with an observed mean proportion CCS of 3.9% before the intervention and 5.8% afterward. The counterfactual model predicted an average response of 3.9% [95% CI 3.5-4.3%]. The estimated absolute causal effect of the intervention was 2.0% [95% CI 1.5-2.4%] (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A DDS tool measurably increased ED CCS documentation. Attention to user workflows and collaboration with compliance and billing teams avoided alert fatigue and ensures compliance.

Non-targeted hepatitis C virus screening in acute care healthcare settings in the Southern Appalachian region

Objectives

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of non-targeted hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening in emergency departments (EDs) and other healthcare settings in terms of patients identified with HCV infection and linked to HCV care.

Methods

In the Southern Appalachian region of the United States, we developed non-targeted HCV screening and linkage-to-care programs in 10 institutions at different healthcare settings, including EDs, outpatient clinics, and inpatient units. Serum samples were tested for HCV antibodies, and if positive, reflexed to HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) testing as a confirmatory test for active infection. Patients with positive RNA tests were contacted to link them to HCV care.

Results

Between 2017 and 2019, among 195,152 patients screened for HCV infection, 16,529 (8.5%) were positive by antibody testing, 10,139 (5.2% of screened patients and 61.3% of patients positive by antibody test) were positive by RNA testing, and 5778 (3.0% of screened patients and 57.0% of patients positive by RNA test) were successfully linked to HCV care. Among 83,645 patients screened in EDs, 9060 (10.8%) were positive by HCV antibody, and 5243 (6.3%) were positive by RNA test. Among patients positive by RNA testing, linkage to care was lower for patients screened in the ED (44.1%) compared with outpatient clinics (67.6%) (P < 0.01) and inpatient units (50.9%) (P < 0.01).

Conclusions

Non-targeted HCV screening in acute care settings can identify large numbers of people with HCV infection. To optimize the utility of these screening programs, future work is needed to develop best practices that consistently link these patients to HCV care.

COVID-19 severity from Omicron and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 achieved worldwide dominance in late 2021. Early work suggests that infections caused by the Omicron variant may be less severe than those caused by the Delta variant. We sought to compare clinical outcomes of infections caused by these two strains, confirmed by whole genome sequencing, over a short period of time, from respiratory samples collected from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients at a large medical center. We found that infections caused by the Omicron variant caused significantly less morbidity, including admission to the hospital and requirement for oxygen supplementation, and significantly less mortality than those caused by the Delta variant.

Risk factors for post sternotomy wound complications across the patient journey: A systematised review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Around 36,000 cardiac operations are undertaken in the United Kingdom annually, with most procedures undertaken via median sternotomy. Wound complications occur in up to 8% of operations, with an associated mortality rate of around 47% in late or undetected cases.

OBJECTIVE

To undertake a systematised literature review to identify pre-operative, peri-operative and post-operative risk factors associated with sternal wound complications.

METHODS

Healthcare databases were searched for articles written in the English language and published between 2013 and 2021. Inclusion criteria were quantitative studies involving patients undergoing median sternotomy for cardiac surgery; sternal complications and risk factors.

RESULTS

1360 papers were identified, with 25 included in this review. Patient-related factors included: high BMI; diabetes; comorbidities; gender; age; presenting for surgery in a critical state; predictive risk scores; vascular disease; severe anaemia; medication such as steroids or α-blockers; and previous sternotomy. Peri-operative risk increased with specific types and combinations of surgical procedures. Sternal reopening was also associated with increased risk of sternal wound infection. Post-operative risk factors included a complicated recovery; the need for blood transfusions; respiratory complications; renal failure; non-diabetic hyperglycaemia; sternal asymmetry and sepsis.

CONCLUSION

Pre, peri and post-operative risk factors increase the risk of sternal wound complications in cardiac surgery. Generic risk assessment tools are primarily designed to provide mortality risk scores, with their ability to predict risk of wound infection questionable. Tools that incorporate factors throughout the operative journey are required to identify patients at risk of surgical wound infection.

Annual water residence time effects on thermal structure: A potential lake restoration measure?

Innovative methods to combat internal loading issues in eutrophic lakes are urgently needed to speed recovery and restore systems within legislative deadlines. In stratifying lakes, internal phosphorus loading is particularly problematic during the summer stratified period when anoxia persists in the hypolimnion, promoting phosphorus release from the sediment. A novel method to inhibit stratification by reducing residence times is proposed as a way of controlling the length of the hypolimnetic anoxic period, thus reducing the loading of nutrients from the sediments into the water column. However, residence time effects on stratification length in natural lakes are not well understood. We used a systematic modelling approach to investigate the viability of changes to annual water residence time in affecting lake stratification and thermal dynamics in Elterwater, a small stratifying eutrophic lake in the northwest of England. We found that reducing annual water residence times shortened and weakened summer stratification. Based on finer-scale dynamics of lake heat fluxes and water column stability we propose seasonal or sub-seasonal management of water residence time is needed for the method to be most effective at reducing stratification as a means of controlling internal nutrient loading.

Catching Those Who Fall Through the Cracks: Integrating a Follow-Up Process for Emergency Department Patients with Incidental Radiologic Findings

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Abnormal findings unrelated to the indication for testing are identified on emergency department (ED) imaging studies. We report the design and implementation of an electronic health record-based interdisciplinary referral system and our experience from the first 13 months of ensuring that patients with incidental radiology findings were connected with the appropriate outpatient surveillance.

METHODS

Our informatics team standardized the contemporaneous reporting of critical radiology alerts using our ED trackboard and created a companion follow-up request form for the treating ED clinicians to complete. The forms were routed to nurse case managers, who arranged follow-ups based on the findings and clinical significance. The primary outcome was the proportion of ED patient visits with identified incidental findings that had documented communication of the incidental findings and surveillance plans.

RESULTS

Over the first 13 months after implementation, 932 ED patient visits had critical radiology alert referrals, for a total of 982 incidental findings. The primary outcome (confirmed post-ED communication and documented follow-up plan) was attained in 888 (95.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 93.9% to 96.6%) ED patient visits with confirmed post-ED communication and documented follow-up plans. The team was unable to contact or confirm follow-up with 44 (4.7%, 95% CI 3.4 to 6.1) patients by telephone or through the health care system's electronic communication tools.

CONCLUSION

We report the implementation of a standardized notification and referral system for ED patients with incidental radiology findings. The development of a reliable notification and follow-up system is an important patient safety intervention given the opportunity to potentially identify undiagnosed malignancies.

Effectiveness of the Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson) Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccine for Preventing COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Progression to High Disease Severity in the United States

Background . Adults in the United States (US) began receiving the adenovirus vector coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson [Janssen]), in February 2021. We evaluated Ad26.COV2.S vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalization and high disease severity during the first 10 months of its use. Methods . In a multicenter case-control analysis of US adults (≥18 years) hospitalized 11 March to 15 December 2021, we estimated VE against susceptibility to COVID-19 hospitalization (VEs), comparing odds of prior vaccination with a single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine between hospitalized cases with COVID-19 and controls without COVID-19. Among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, we estimated VE against disease progression (VEp) to death or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), comparing odds of prior vaccination between patients with and without progression. Results . After excluding patients receiving mRNA vaccines, among 3979 COVID-19 case-patients (5% vaccinated with Ad26.COV2.S) and 2229 controls (13% vaccinated with Ad26.COV2.S), VEs of Ad26.COV2.S against COVID-19 hospitalization was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 63-75%) overall, including 55% (29-72%) among immunocompromised patients, and 72% (64-77%) among immunocompetent patients, for whom VEs was similar at 14-90 days (73% [59-82%]), 91-180 days (71% [60-80%]), and 181-274 days (70% [54-81%]) postvaccination. Among hospitalized COVID-19 case-patients, VEp was 46% (18-65%) among immunocompetent patients. Conclusions . The Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine reduced the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization by 72% among immunocompetent adults without waning through 6 months postvaccination. After hospitalization for COVID-19, vaccinated immunocompetent patients were less likely to require IMV or die compared to unvaccinated immunocompetent patients.

Effectiveness of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Messenger RNA Vaccines for Preventing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Hospitalizations in the United States

BACKGROUND

As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination coverage increases in the United States, there is a need to understand the real-world effectiveness against severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and among people at increased risk for poor outcomes.

METHODS

In a multicenter case-control analysis of US adults hospitalized March 11-May 5, 2021, we evaluated vaccine effectiveness to prevent COVID-19 hospitalizations by comparing odds of prior vaccination with a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) between cases hospitalized with COVID-19 and hospital-based controls who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2.

RESULTS

Among 1212 participants, including 593 cases and 619 controls, median age was 58 years, 22.8% were Black, 13.9% were Hispanic, and 21.0% had immunosuppression. SARS-CoV-2 lineage B0.1.1.7 (Alpha) was the most common variant (67.9% of viruses with lineage determined). Full vaccination (receipt of 2 vaccine doses ≥14 days before illness onset) had been received by 8.2% of cases and 36.4% of controls. Overall vaccine effectiveness was 87.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.7-91.3). Vaccine effectiveness was similar for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, and highest in adults aged 18-49 years (97.4%; 95% CI, 79.3-9.7). Among 45 patients with vaccine-breakthrough COVID hospitalizations, 44 (97.8%) were ≥50 years old and 20 (44.4%) had immunosuppression. Vaccine effectiveness was lower among patients with immunosuppression (62.9%; 95% CI,20.8-82.6) than without immunosuppression (91.3%; 95% CI, 85.6-94.8).

CONCLUSION

During March-May 2021, SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines were highly effective for preventing COVID-19 hospitalizations among US adults. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was beneficial for patients with immunosuppression, but effectiveness was lower in the immunosuppressed population.

COVID-19 Vaccination Gap in Admitted Trauma Patients: A Critical Opportunity

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination is the core strategy for pandemic management. We hypothesized that a vaccination gap might exist between emergency department (ED) patients admitted for trauma and other ED patients.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an observational quality improvement study using electronic health record data at an academic level-1 trauma center. Participants were all patients presenting to the adult ED with a Tennessee home address between January 1 and June 1, 2021. We measured the proportional difference in vaccination between admitted trauma patients and other ED patients over time (by week) and association via Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Binary logistic regression facilitated covariate analysis to account for age, sex, race, home county, and ethnicity without and then with interaction between trauma admission and time. Geographic visual analysis compared county-level vaccination rates with odds of trauma admission by home county using a bivariate chloropleth map.

RESULTS

The proportional difference in vaccination between trauma-admitted and other ED patients increased over time (Spearman's = 0.699). Adjusting for age, sex, race, home county, and ethnicity, there was a statistically significant vaccination difference between trauma-admitted and other ED patients (odds ratio = 0.53, 95% CI 0.43-0.65, p < 0.0001). Geographic analysis revealed increased trauma admission odds and lower vaccination rates in surrounding counties compared with Davidson County.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a widening COVID-19 vaccination gap between trauma-admitted and other ED patients. Vaccine outreach during trauma admission may provide a valuable point of contact for unvaccinated patients.

Supermarket/Hypermarket Opportunistic Screening for Atrial Fibrillation (SHOPS-AF): A Mixed Methods Feasibility Study Protocol

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia and a key risk factor for ischaemic stroke. Following AF detection, treatment with oral anticoagulation can significantly lower mortality and morbidity rates associated with this risk. The availability of several hand-held devices which can detect AF may enable trained health professionals to adopt AF screening approaches which do not interfere with people’s daily routines. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of a hand-held device (the MyDiagnostick single-lead Electrocardiogram (ECG) sensor) in screening for AF when embedded into the handles of supermarket trolleys. Methods: A mixed methods two-phase approach will be taken. The quantitative first phase will involve the recruitment of 2000 participants from a convenience sample at four large supermarkets with pharmacies. Prospective participants will be asked to conduct their shopping using a trolley embedded with a MyDiagnostick sensor. If the device identifies a participant with AF, the in-store pharmacist will be dispatched to take a manual pulse measurement and a static control sensor reading and offer a cardiologist consultation referral. When the sensor does not detect AF, a researcher will confirm the reading with a manual pulse measurement. ECGs will be compiled, and the sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values will be determined. A qualitative second phase will consist of semi-structured interviews carried out with those pharmacists and store managers in-store during the running of the trial period. These will explore the perceptions of staff regarding the merits of embedding sensors in the handles of supermarket trolleys to detect AF. Conclusion: This feasibility study will inform a larger future definitive trial.

Can reductions in water residence time be used to disrupt seasonal stratification and control internal loading in a eutrophic monomictic lake?

Anthropogenic eutrophication caused by excess loading of nutrients, especially phosphorus (P), from catchments is a major cause of lake water quality degradation. The release of P from bed sediments to the water column, termed internal loading, can exceed catchment P load in eutrophic lakes, especially those that stratify during warm summer periods. Managing internal P loading is challenging, and although a range of approaches have been implemented, long-term success is often limited, requiring lake-specific solutions. Here, we assess the manipulation of lake residence time to inhibit internal loading in Elterwater, a shallow stratifying lake in the English Lake District, UK. Since 2016, additional inflowing water has been diverted into the inner basin of Elterwater to reduce its water residence time, with the intention of limiting the length of the stratified period and reducing internal loading. Combining eight years of field data in a Before-After-Control-Impact study with process-based hydrodynamic modelling enabled the quantification of the residence time intervention effects on stratification length, water column stability, and concentrations of chlorophyll a and P. Annual water residence time was reduced during the study period by around 40% (4.9 days). Despite this change, the lake continued to stratify and developed hypolimnetic anoxia. As a result, there was little significant change in phosphorus (as total or soluble reactive phosphorus) or chlorophyll a concentrations. Summer stratification length was 2 days shorter and 7% less stable with the intervention. Our results suggest that the change to water residence time in Elterwater was insufficient to induce large enough physical changes to improve water quality. However, the minor physical changes suggest the management measure had some impact and that larger changes in water residence time may have the potential to induce reductions in internal loading. Future assessments of management requirements should combine multi-year observations and physical lake modelling to provide improved understanding of the intervention effect size required to alter the physical structure of the lake, leading to increased hypolimnetic oxygen and reduced potential for internal loading.

Optimizing adherence and persistence to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant therapy in atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which can be prevented by the use of oral anticoagulation. Although non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have become the first choice for stroke prevention in the majority of patients with non-valvular AF, adherence and persistence to these medications remain suboptimal, which may translate into poor health outcomes and increased healthcare costs. Factors influencing adherence and persistence have been suggested to be patient-related, physician-related, and healthcare system-related. In this review, we discuss factors influencing patient adherence and persistence to NOACs and possible problem solving strategies, especially involving an integrated care management, aiming for the improvement in patient outcomes and treatment satisfaction.

Effectiveness of a Third Dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Vaccines in Preventing COVID-19 Hospitalization Among Immunocompetent and Immunocompromised Adults - United States, August-December 2021

COVID-19 mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] and mRNA-1273 [Moderna]) provide protection against infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and are highly effective against COVID-19-associated hospitalization among eligible persons who receive 2 doses (1,2). However, vaccine effectiveness (VE) among persons with immunocompromising conditions* is lower than that among immunocompetent persons (2), and VE declines after several months among all persons (3). On August 12, 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for a third mRNA vaccine dose as part of a primary series ≥28 days after dose 2 for persons aged ≥12 years with immunocompromising conditions, and, on November 19, 2021, as a booster dose for all adults aged ≥18 years at least 6 months after dose 2, changed to ≥5 months after dose 2 on January 3, 2022 (4,5,6). Among 2,952 adults (including 1,385 COVID-19 case-patients and 1,567 COVID-19-negative controls) hospitalized at 21 U.S. hospitals during August 19-December 15, 2021, effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was compared between adults eligible for but who had not received a third vaccine dose (1,251) and vaccine-eligible adults who received a third dose ≥7 days before illness onset (312). Among 1,875 adults without immunocompromising conditions (including 1,065 [57%] unvaccinated, 679 [36%] 2-dose recipients, and 131 [7%] 3-dose [booster] recipients), VE against COVID-19 hospitalization was higher among those who received a booster dose (97%; 95% CI = 95%-99%) compared with that among 2-dose recipients (82%; 95% CI = 77%-86%) (p <0.001). Among 1,077 adults with immunocompromising conditions (including 324 [30%] unvaccinated, 572 [53%] 2-dose recipients, and 181 [17%] 3-dose recipients), VE was higher among those who received a third dose to complete a primary series (88%; 95% CI = 81%-93%) compared with 2-dose recipients (69%; 95% CI = 57%-78%) (p <0.001). Administration of a third COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose as part of a primary series among immunocompromised adults, or as a booster dose among immunocompetent adults, provides improved protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalization.

Association Between mRNA Vaccination and COVID-19 Hospitalization and Disease Severity

Importance

A comprehensive understanding of the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination requires consideration of disease attenuation, determined as whether people who develop COVID-19 despite vaccination have lower disease severity than unvaccinated people.

Objective

To evaluate the association between vaccination with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines-mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech)-and COVID-19 hospitalization, and, among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, the association with progression to critical disease.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A US 21-site case-control analysis of 4513 adults hospitalized between March 11 and August 15, 2021, with 28-day outcome data on death and mechanical ventilation available for patients enrolled through July 14, 2021. Date of final follow-up was August 8, 2021.

Exposures

COVID-19 vaccination.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Associations were evaluated between prior vaccination and (1) hospitalization for COVID-19, in which case patients were those hospitalized for COVID-19 and control patients were those hospitalized for an alternative diagnosis; and (2) disease progression among patients hospitalized for COVID-19, in which cases and controls were COVID-19 patients with and without progression to death or mechanical ventilation, respectively. Associations were measured with multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Among 4513 patients (median age, 59 years [IQR, 45-69]; 2202 [48.8%] women; 23.0% non-Hispanic Black individuals, 15.9% Hispanic individuals, and 20.1% with an immunocompromising condition), 1983 were case patients with COVID-19 and 2530 were controls without COVID-19. Unvaccinated patients accounted for 84.2% (1669/1983) of COVID-19 hospitalizations. Hospitalization for COVID-19 was significantly associated with decreased likelihood of vaccination (cases, 15.8%; controls, 54.8%; adjusted OR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.13-0.18), including for sequenced SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (8.7% vs 51.7%; aOR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.06-0.16) and Delta variants (21.9% vs 61.8%; aOR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.10-0.21). This association was stronger for immunocompetent patients (11.2% vs 53.5%; aOR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.09-0.13) than immunocompromised patients (40.1% vs 58.8%; aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.35-0.69) (P < .001) and weaker at more than 120 days since vaccination with BNT162b2 (5.8% vs 11.5%; aOR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.27-0.49) than with mRNA-1273 (1.9% vs 8.3%; aOR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09-0.23) (P < .001). Among 1197 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, death or invasive mechanical ventilation by day 28 was associated with decreased likelihood of vaccination (12.0% vs 24.7%; aOR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.19-0.58).

Conclusions and Relevance

Vaccination with an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was significantly less likely among patients with COVID-19 hospitalization and disease progression to death or mechanical ventilation. These findings are consistent with risk reduction among vaccine breakthrough infections compared with absence of vaccination.

Should I stay or should I go? An exploration of the decision-making behavior of acute cardiac patients during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

During the SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic efforts to reduce virus transmission resulted in non-emergency patients being deterred from seeking help. The number of patients presenting with acute cardiac conditions reduced, significantly

Objectives

To explore the decision-making process, and influential factors in that process, of patients and their family during an acute cardiac event.

Methods

A qualitative research design was employed using purposive sampling of patients who experienced an acute cardiac event during the social containment mandates. Semi-structured interviews were conducted, with thematic analysis of interview transcripts.

Results

Twenty-five participants were recruited from three UK hospitals. Themes identified were reliance on informal support network, lack of awareness of cardiac symptoms leading to delayed help-seeking, and an indirect COVID-19 effect (e.g. avoiding treatment).

Conclusions

These results highlight the need for informed public health messages, targeting patients and their support networks, that allow those in need of treatment to access care.

Comparative Effectiveness of Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) Vaccines in Preventing COVID-19 Hospitalizations Among Adults Without Immunocompromising Conditions - United States, March-August 2021

Three COVID-19 vaccines are authorized or approved for use among adults in the United States (1,2). Two 2-dose mRNA vaccines, mRNA-1273 from Moderna and BNT162b2 from Pfizer-BioNTech, received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in December 2020 for persons aged ≥18 years and aged ≥16 years, respectively. A 1-dose viral vector vaccine (Ad26.COV2 from Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) received EUA in February 2021 for persons aged ≥18 years (3). The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine received FDA approval for persons aged ≥16 years on August 23, 2021 (4). Current guidelines from FDA and CDC recommend vaccination of eligible persons with one of these three products, without preference for any specific vaccine (4,5). To assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of these three products in preventing COVID-19 hospitalization, CDC and collaborators conducted a case-control analysis among 3,689 adults aged ≥18 years who were hospitalized at 21 U.S. hospitals across 18 states during March 11-August 15, 2021. An additional analysis compared serum antibody levels (anti-spike immunoglobulin G [IgG] and anti-receptor binding domain [RBD] IgG) to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, among 100 healthy volunteers enrolled at three hospitals 2-6 weeks after full vaccination with the Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, or Janssen COVID-19 vaccine. Patients with immunocompromising conditions were excluded. VE against COVID-19 hospitalizations was higher for the Moderna vaccine (93%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 91%-95%) than for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (88%; 95% CI = 85%-91%) (p = 0.011); VE for both mRNA vaccines was higher than that for the Janssen vaccine (71%; 95% CI = 56%-81%) (all p<0.001). Protection for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine declined 4 months after vaccination. Postvaccination anti-spike IgG and anti-RBD IgG levels were significantly lower in persons vaccinated with the Janssen vaccine than the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines. Although these real-world data suggest some variation in levels of protection by vaccine, all FDA-approved or authorized COVID-19 vaccines provide substantial protection against COVID-19 hospitalization.

Sustained Effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Vaccines Against COVID-19 Associated Hospitalizations Among Adults - United States, March-July 2021

Real-world evaluations have demonstrated high effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations (1-4) measured shortly after vaccination; longer follow-up is needed to assess durability of protection. In an evaluation at 21 hospitals in 18 states, the duration of mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations was assessed among adults aged ≥18 years. Among 3,089 hospitalized adults (including 1,194 COVID-19 case-patients and 1,895 non-COVID-19 control-patients), the median age was 59 years, 48.7% were female, and 21.1% had an immunocompromising condition. Overall, 141 (11.8%) case-patients and 988 (52.1%) controls were fully vaccinated (defined as receipt of the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines ≥14 days before illness onset), with a median interval of 65 days (range = 14-166 days) after receipt of second dose. VE against COVID-19-associated hospitalization during the full surveillance period was 86% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 82%-88%) overall and 90% (95% CI = 87%-92%) among adults without immunocompromising conditions. VE against COVID-19- associated hospitalization was 86% (95% CI = 82%-90%) 2-12 weeks and 84% (95% CI = 77%-90%) 13-24 weeks from receipt of the second vaccine dose, with no significant change between these periods (p = 0.854). Whole genome sequencing of 454 case-patient specimens found that 242 (53.3%) belonged to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage and 74 (16.3%) to the B.1.617.2 (Delta) lineage. Effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was sustained over a 24-week period, including among groups at higher risk for severe COVID-19; ongoing monitoring is needed as new SARS-CoV-2 variants emerge. To reduce their risk for hospitalization, all eligible persons should be offered COVID-19 vaccination.

Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccines for Preventing Covid-19 Hospitalizations in the United States

Background

As SARS-CoV-2 vaccination coverage increases in the United States (US), there is a need to understand the real-world effectiveness against severe Covid-19 and among people at increased risk for poor outcomes.

Methods

In a multicenter case-control analysis of US adults hospitalized March 11 - May 5, 2021, we evaluated vaccine effectiveness to prevent Covid-19 hospitalizations by comparing odds of prior vaccination with an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) between cases hospitalized with Covid-19 and hospital-based controls who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2.

Results

Among 1210 participants, median age was 58 years, 22.8% were Black, 13.8% were Hispanic, and 20.6% had immunosuppression. SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 was most common variant (59.7% of sequenced viruses). Full vaccination (receipt of two vaccine doses ≥14 days before illness onset) had been received by 45/590 (7.6%) cases and 215/620 (34.7%) controls. Overall vaccine effectiveness was 86.9% (95% CI: 80.4 to 91.2%). Vaccine effectiveness was similar for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, and highest in adults aged 18-49 years (97.3%; 95% CI: 78.9 to 99.7%). Among 45 patients with vaccine-breakthrough Covid hospitalizations, 44 (97.8%) were ≥50 years old and 20 (44.4%) had immunosuppression. Vaccine effectiveness was lower among patients with immunosuppression (59.2%; 95% CI: 11.9 to 81.1%) than without immunosuppression (91.3%; 95% CI: 85.5 to 94.7%).

Conclusion

During March-May 2021, SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines were highly effective for preventing Covid-19 hospitalizations among US adults. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was beneficial for patients with immunosuppression, but effectiveness was lower in the immunosuppressed population.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Among Frontline Healthcare Personnel During the First Month of Caring for Patients With COVID-19-Nashville, Tennessee

Among 249 healthcare personnel who worked in hospital units with COVID-19 patients for 1 month, 19 (7.6%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Only 11 (57.9%) of the 19 personnel with positive serology reported symptoms of a prior illness, suggesting asymptomatic healthcare personnel could be an important source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Decline in SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies After Mild Infection Among Frontline Health Care Personnel in a Multistate Hospital Network - 12 States, April-August 2020

Most persons infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), develop virus-specific antibodies within several weeks, but antibody titers might decline over time. Understanding the timeline of antibody decline is important for interpreting SARS-CoV-2 serology results. Serum specimens were collected from a convenience sample of frontline health care personnel at 13 hospitals and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 during April 3-June 19, 2020, and again approximately 60 days later to assess this timeline. The percentage of participants who experienced seroreversion, defined as an antibody signal-to-threshold ratio >1.0 at baseline and <1.0 at the follow-up visit, was assessed. Overall, 194 (6.0%) of 3,248 participants had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 at baseline (1). Upon repeat testing approximately 60 days later (range = 50-91 days), 146 (93.6%) of 156 participants experienced a decline in antibody response indicated by a lower signal-to-threshold ratio at the follow-up visit, compared with the baseline visit, and 44 (28.2%) experienced seroreversion. Participants with higher initial antibody responses were more likely to have antibodies detected at the follow-up test than were those who had a lower initial antibody response. Whether decay in these antibodies increases risk for reinfection and disease remains unanswered. However, these results suggest that serology testing at a single time point is likely to underestimate the number of persons with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and a negative serologic test result might not reliably exclude prior infection.

Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes

Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade⁻¹, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m⁻³ decade⁻¹). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade⁻¹), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade⁻¹ to + 0.65 °C decade⁻¹. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Among Frontline Health Care Personnel in a Multistate Hospital Network - 13 Academic Medical Centers, April-June 2020

Health care personnel (HCP) caring for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) might be at high risk for contracting SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Understanding the prevalence of and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among frontline HCP who care for COVID-19 patients are important for protecting both HCP and their patients. During April 3-June 19, 2020, serum specimens were collected from a convenience sample of frontline HCP who worked with COVID-19 patients at 13 geographically diverse academic medical centers in the United States, and specimens were tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Participants were asked about potential symptoms of COVID-19 experienced since February 1, 2020, previous testing for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, and their use of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the past week. Among 3,248 participants, 194 (6.0%) had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seroprevalence by hospital ranged from 0.8% to 31.2% (median = 3.6%). Among the 194 seropositive participants, 56 (29%) reported no symptoms since February 1, 2020, 86 (44%) did not believe that they previously had COVID-19, and 133 (69%) did not report a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. Seroprevalence was lower among personnel who reported always wearing a face covering (defined in this study as a surgical mask, N95 respirator, or powered air purifying respirator [PAPR]) while caring for patients (5.6%), compared with that among those who did not (9.0%) (p = 0.012). Consistent with persons in the general population with SARS-CoV-2 infection, many frontline HCP with SARS-CoV-2 infection might be asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic during infection, and infection might be unrecognized. Enhanced screening, including frequent testing of frontline HCP, and universal use of face coverings in hospitals are two strategies that could reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

What we can learn from elite academic staff publication portfolios: a social network analysis

Purpose

The study aims to construct an understanding of professional academic writing network structures to inform organisational strategic investment in academic staff development.

Design/methodology/approach

Longitudinal social network analysis is used to examine the personal-networks evident in the publication portfolios of a purposive sample of four international academics across each quartile of the SCOPUS defined area of General Nursing's top 100 authors.

Findings

Trends in the publication portfolios of elite academics across gender, sector and geographic location are presented. In the first years of successful writing for publication, authors collaborate within a single highly connected co-author network. This network will typically expand to include new co-authors, before additional separate co-author collaborations emerge (three- to four- years). Authors experience steady growth in co-author numbers four- to seven- years from first co-authored publication. After a period of rapid expansion, these collaborations coalesce into a smaller number of highly connected groups (eight- to ten- years). Most collaborations occur within the higher education sector and across multiple disciplines including medicine, social sciences and psychology. Male co-authors are disproportionately represented in what is a predominantly female profession.

Practical implications

The development of extended co-author networks, locally, internationally and across the higher education sector, enable authors to attain the marker of achievement required by universities and government funding bodies, namely sustained output of academic publications. Identified trends support the inclusion of investment in academic time and resources in higher education institutions strategic and operational plans to enable academic staff to develop interdisciplinary professional networks. In focussing this investment on gender equality, female academics will experience parity of opportunity in achieving their organisational and personal goals relating to professional academic writing. Medium-term investment may be required before the impact of that investment becomes apparent.

Originality/value

This is the first example of social network analysis used to determine characteristics of professional academic writing portfolios over time. Findings inform the type and range of investment required to facilitate academic staff writing activities, specifically those publishing in the area of General Nursing.

Wide-spread inconsistency in estimation of lake mixed depth impacts interpretation of limnological processes

The mixed layer, or epilimnion, is a physical concept referring to an isothermal layer at the surface of a water body. This concept is ubiquitous within limnology, is fundamental to our understanding of chemical and ecological processes, and is an important metric for water body monitoring, assessment and management. Despite its importance as a metric, many different approaches to approximating mixed depth currently exist. Using data from field campaigns in a small meso-eutrophic lake in the UK in 2016 and 2017 we tested whether different definitions of mixed depth resulted in comparable estimates and whether variables other than temperature could be assumed to be mixed within the layer. Different methods resulted in very different estimates for the mixed depth and ecologically important variables were not necessarily homogenously spread through the epilimnion. Furthermore, calculation of simple ecologically relevant metrics based on mixed depth showed that these metrics were highly dependent on the definition of mixed depth used. The results demonstrate that an idealised concept of a well-defined fully mixed layer is not necessarily appropriate. The widespread use of multiple definitions for mixed depth impairs the comparability of different studies while associated uncertainty over the most appropriate definition limits the confirmability of studies utilising the mixed depths.

CT findings in five dogs with surgically confirmed colonic torsion

Colonic torsion is a life-threatening condition that results in colonic ischemia, necrosis, perforation, sepsis, and eventual death. The aim of this multicenter, retrospective case series study was to describe the CT findings in dogs with surgically confirmed colonic torsion. Medical records were searched for dogs with surgically confirmed colonic torsion following abdominal CT. Five dogs met the inclusion criteria. Three had a history of chronic intermittent diarrhea prior to presentation. Two dogs presented with acute vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain and one dog presented with acute vomiting and lethargy. Computed tomographic findings in all dogs with surgically confirmed colonic torsion include: "whirl sign," displacement and distension of the cecum and colon, focal narrowing of the colon, and distension of the mesenteric vasculature in all dogs (5/5); streaky peritoneal fat and peritoneal effusion (4/5), pneumatosis coli (2/5), small intestinal distension (2/5), portal vein thrombosis (1/5), and reduced colonic wall contrast enhancement (1/5). In all dogs (5/5), the torsion site was the descending colon and demonstrated an anticlockwise rotation. At surgery, three of the five dogs had a partial colonic torsion with hyperemia at the site of obstruction and two of the five dogs had a complete torsion with marked necrosis of the colonic wall. Displacement of the colon and cecum, segmental distension and focal narrowing of the colon, the presence of a "whirl sign" and distension of the mesenteric vasculature are CT findings highly suggestive of colonic torsion.

Implementation of an Opioid Detoxification Management Pathway Reduces Emergency Department Length of Stay

OBJECTIVES

With the rise of opioid use in the United States, the increasing demand for treatment for opioid use disorders presents both a challenge and an opportunity to develop new care pathways for emergency department (ED) patients seeking opioid detoxification. We set out to improve the care of patients presenting to our ED seeking opioid detoxification by implementing a standardized management pathway and to measure the effects of this intervention.

METHODS

We conducted a before-after study of the effects of an opioid detoxification management pathway on ED length of stay (EDLOS), use of resources (social worker consultation, laboratory tests obtained), and return visits to the same ED within 30 days of discharge. All data were collected retrospectively by review of the electronic health record.

RESULTS

Ultimately, 107 patients presented to the ED that met criteria, 52 in the intervention period and 55 in the preintervention period. Median EDLOS in the intervention period was 152 (interquartile range [IQR] = 93-237) minutes compared to 312 (IQR = 187-468) minutes in the preintervention period (p < 0.001). Patients in the intervention period less frequently had a social work consultation (32.7% vs. 83.6%, p < 0.001) or had laboratory tests obtained (32.7% vs 74.5%, p < 0.001) and more frequently were prescribed a medication for withdrawal symptoms (57.7% vs. 29.1%, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of an opioid detoxification management pathway reduced EDLOS, reduced utilization of resources, and increased the proportion of patients prescribed medications for symptom relief.

Adaptive forecasting of phytoplankton communities

The global proliferation of harmful algal blooms poses an increasing threat to water resources, recreation and ecosystems. Predicting the occurrence of these blooms is therefore needed to assist water managers in making management decisions to mitigate their impact. Evaluation of the potential for forecasting of algal blooms using the phytoplankton community model PROTECH was undertaken in pseudo-real-time. This was achieved within a data assimilation scheme using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to allow uncertainties and model nonlinearities to be propagated to forecast outputs. Tests were made on two mesotrophic lakes in the English Lake District, which differ in depth and nutrient regime. Some forecasting success was shown for chlorophyll a, but not all forecasts were able to perform better than a persistence forecast. There was a general reduction in forecast skill with increasing forecasting period but forecasts for up to four or five days showed noticeably greater promise than those for longer periods. Associated forecasts of phytoplankton community structure were broadly consistent with observations but their translation to cyanobacteria forecasts was challenging owing to the interchangeability of simulated functional species.

Saline versus balanced crystalloids for intravenous fluid therapy in the emergency department: study protocol for a cluster-randomized, multiple-crossover trial

Background

Prior studies in critically ill patients suggest the supra-physiologic chloride concentration of 0.9% (“normal”) saline may be associated with higher risk of renal failure and death compared to physiologically balanced crystalloids. However, the comparative effects of 0.9% saline and balanced fluids are largely unexamined among patients outside the intensive care unit, who represent the vast majority of patients treated with intravenous fluids.

Methods/design

This study, entitled Saline Against Lactated Ringer’s or Plasma-Lyte in the Emergency Department (SALT-ED), is a pragmatic, cluster, multiple-crossover trial at a single institution evaluating clinical outcomes of adults treated with 0.9% saline versus balanced crystalloids for intravenous fluid resuscitation in the emergency department. All adults treated in the study emergency department receiving at least 500 mL of isotonic crystalloid solution during usual clinical care and subsequently hospitalized outside the intensive care unit are included. Treatment allocation of 0.9% saline versus balanced crystalloids is assigned by calendar month, with study patients treated during the same month assigned to the same fluid type. The first month (January 2016) was randomly assigned to balanced crystalloids, with each subsequent month alternating between 0.9% saline and balanced crystalloids. For balanced crystalloid treatment, clinicians can choose either Lactated Ringer’s or Plasma-Lyte A©. The study period is set at 16 months, which will result in an anticipated estimated sample size of 15,000 patients. The primary outcome is hospital-free days to day 28, defined as the number of days alive and out of the hospital from the index emergency department visit until 28 days later. Major secondary outcomes include proportion of patients who develop acute kidney injury by creatinine measurements; major adverse kidney events by hospital discharge or day 30 (MAKE30), which is a composite outcome of death, new renal replacement therapy, and persistent creatinine elevation >200% of baseline; and in-hospital mortality.

Discussion

This ongoing pragmatic trial will provide the most comprehensive evaluation to date of clinical outcomes associated with 0.9% saline compared to physiologically balanced fluids in patients outside the intensive care unit.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02614040. Registered on 18 November 2015.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-1923-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Diel Surface Temperature Range Scales with Lake Size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.

ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN DUAL-PHASE COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY FEATURES AND HISTOPATHOLOGIC DIAGNOSES IN 52 DOGS WITH HEPATIC OR SPLENIC MASSES

Ability to noninvasively differentiate malignant from nonmalignant abdominal masses would aid clinical decision making. The aim of this retrospective, cross-sectional study was to identify features in dual-phase computed tomographic (CT) studies that could be used to distinguish malignant from nonmalignant hepatic and splenic masses in dogs. Medical records were searched for dogs that had an abdominal dual-phase CT examination, a hepatic or splenic mass, and subsequent histopathologic diagnosis. Computed tomographic images for all included dogs were acquired prior to and <30 s (early phase) and >60 s (delayed phase) after intravenous contrast administration. Fifty-two dogs with 55 masses were studied: 24 hepatic, including 14 (58%) malignant and 10 (42%) non-malignant; 31 splenic, including 18 (58%) malignant and 13 (42%) nonmalignant. There was substantial overlap in the pre- and postcontrast CT features of malignant and nonmalignant hepatic and splenic masses. Regardless of histologic diagnosis, hepatic masses most frequently showed marked, generalized enhancement in early phase images that persisted in the delayed phase. Splenic hemangiosarcoma and nodular hyperplastic lesions most frequently showed marked, generalized enhancement in early phase images that persisted in delayed images whereas most splenic hematomas had slight enhancement in early phase images. All splenic hematomas and 77% of the hemangiosarcomas had contrast accumulation compatible with active hemorrhage. There were no other significant differences in quantitative or categorical CT data between malignant and nonmalignant hepatic or splenic masses. Dual-phase CT of dogs with hepatic or splenic masses provides limited specific diagnostic information.

Food web de-synchronization in England's largest lake: an assessment based on multiple phenological metrics

Phenological changes have been observed globally for marine, freshwater and terrestrial species, and are an important element of the global biological 'fingerprint' of climate change. Differences in rates of change could desynchronize seasonal species interactions within a food web, threatening ecosystem functioning. Quantification of this risk is hampered by the rarity of long-term data for multiple interacting species from the same ecosystem and by the diversity of possible phenological metrics, which vary in their ecological relevance to food web interactions. We compare phenological change for phytoplankton (chlorophyll a), zooplankton (Daphnia) and fish (perch, Perca fluviatilis) in two basins of Windermere over 40 years and determine whether change has differed among trophic levels, while explicitly accounting for among-metric differences in rates of change. Though rates of change differed markedly among the nine metrics used, seasonal events shifted earlier for all metrics and trophic levels: zooplankton advanced most, and fish least, rapidly. Evidence of altered synchrony was found in both lake basins, when combining information from all phenological metrics. However, comparisons based on single metrics did not consistently detect this signal. A multimetric approach showed that across trophic levels, earlier phenological events have been associated with increasing water temperature. However, for phytoplankton and zooplankton, phenological change was also associated with changes in resource availability. Lower silicate, and higher phosphorus, concentrations were associated with earlier phytoplankton growth, and earlier phytoplankton growth was associated with earlier zooplankton growth. The developing trophic mismatch detected between the dominant fish species in Windermere and important zooplankton food resources may ultimately affect fish survival and portend significant impacts upon ecosystem functioning. We advocate that future studies on phenological synchrony combine data from multiple phenological metrics, to increase confidence in assessments of change and likely ecological consequences.

Evaluation of a technique for measurement of flow-mediated vasodilation in healthy ponies

OBJECTIVE

To determine between-pony and within-pony variations and interobserver and intraobserver agreements of a technique for measurement of flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) in healthy ponies.

ANIMALS

6 healthy pony mares (weight range, 236 to 406 kg; body condition score range, 3/9 to 7/9; age range, 14 to 25 years).

PROCEDURES

In each pony, the left median artery was occluded with a blood pressure cuff (inflated to > 300 mm Hg for 5 minutes). Two-dimensional ultrasonographic images of the artery were recorded for 30 seconds before cuff inflation and for 2 minutes after cuff deflation. Maximum luminal diameters of arteries were compared with their baseline diameters to calculate FMD (relative percentage increase in luminal size). Images were obtained from 6 ponies 1 time and from 1 pony 6 times. Independent analysis of images was performed by 2 investigators, 1 of whom analyzed images on 2 occasions.

RESULTS

Mean ± SD FMD in 6 ponies (1 time) was 12.57 ± 4.28% and in 1 pony (6 times) was 7.30 ± 2.11%. Between-pony and within-pony coefficients of variation were 34.09% and 28.84%, respectively. Interobserver agreement was fair (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.47); intraobserver agreement was poor (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.30).

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

FMD was identified and measured in ponies. Measurement of FMD is used to assess endothelial function in humans and has been investigated in dogs. Measurement of FMD in ponies appeared to be feasible and could be used to assess endothelial function (to determine predisposition for development of laminitis or cardiovascular diseases).

ED crowding and the use of nontraditional beds

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In an effort to compensate for crowding, many emergency departments (EDs) evaluate and treat patients in nontraditional settings such as gurneys in hallways and conference rooms. The impact of this practice on ED evaluation time is unknown.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS

A historical cohort of adult ED visits to an academic hospital between August 1, 2009 and August 1, 2010, was used to evaluate the relationship between ED bed assignment (traditional, hallway, or conference room bed) and mean ED evaluation time, defined as the time spent in an ED bed before admission or discharge. Chief complaints were categorized into the 5 most frequent categories: abdominal/genitourinary, joint/muscle, general (fever, malaise), head/neck, and other. Multiple linear regression and marginal prediction were used to calculate the mean ED evaluation times for each bed type, overall, and by chief complaint category.

RESULTS

During the study period, 15 073 patient visits met the inclusion criteria. After adjustment for patient and ED factors, assignments to hallway and conference room beds were associated with increases in a mean ED evaluation time of 13.3 minutes (95% confidence interval, 13.2-13.3) and 10.9 minutes (95% confidence interval, 10.8-10.9), respectively, compared with the traditional bed ED evaluation time. This varied by chief complaint category.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of nontraditional beds is associated with increases in mean ED evaluation time; however, these increases are small and may be further minimized by restricting the use of nontraditional beds to patients with specific chief complaints. Nontraditional beds may have a role in improving ED throughput during times of crowding.

Comparison of flow-mediated vasodilation in femoral and brachial arteries in healthy dogs

OBJECTIVE

To compare flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) measurements in brachial and femoral arteries of healthy dogs habituated to the assessment method, evaluate repeatability of these measurements, and investigate effects of blood pressure cuff inflation time on femoral artery FMD measurements.

ANIMALS

11 healthy adult Miniature Schnauzers.

PROCEDURES

Arterial luminal diameter and blood flow velocity integral (FVI) were measured before and after cuff inflation of 5 minutes' (brachial and femoral arteries) or 3 minutes' duration (femoral artery) in separate experiments. A blood pressure cuff was inflated to > 200 mm Hg distal to each imaging site to increase local blood flow to induce reactive hyperemia. Changes in FVI after cuff deflation, FMD, and between-dog and within-dog coefficients of variation (CVs) were determined.

RESULTS

After cuff inflation of 5 minutes' duration, greater changes were detected in median change in FVI and FMD of brachial arteries (174.0% and 8.0%, respectively), compared with values determined for femoral arteries (32.0% and 2.1%, respectively). Between-dog CV for brachial artery FMD was 34.0%, compared with 89.6% for femoral arteries, and within-dog CV was 32.5% for brachial arteries versus 51.6% for femoral arteries after cuff inflation of 5 minutes' duration.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

In healthy Miniature Schnauzers, FMD was greater and more repeatable in brachial arteries than in femoral arteries. Reactive hyperemia was inconsistently induced in femoral arteries following 3- or 5-minute cuff inflation times. Brachial, but not femoral, artery FMD measurement is a potentially useful research technique for measurement of endothelial function in dogs.