Sex differences in acute stroke metrics and outcome dependent on COVID status

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Biological sex is known to have an impact on quality metrics of acute stroke. We aimed to determine whether COVID positivity accentuates this effect and constitutes worse outcome.

METHODS

The present analysis was based on the Global COVID-19 Stroke Registry, a retrospective, international, cohort study of consecutive ischemic stroke patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis and/or endovascular thrombectomy between 1 March 2020 and 30 June 2021. We investigated differences between the sexes in patient characteristics, acute stroke metrics as well as post-stroke outcome in COVID-positive and COVID-negative stroke patients undergoing acute revascularization procedures.

RESULTS

A total of 15,128 patients from 106 centers were recorded in the Global COVID-19 Stroke Registry, 853 (5.6%) of whom were COVID-positive. Overall, COVID-positive individuals were treated significantly slower according to every acute stroke metric compared to COVID-negative patients. We were able to show that key quality indicators in acute stroke treatment were unfavorable for COVID-negative women compared to men (last-seen-well-to-door time + 11 min in women). Furthermore, COVID-negative women had worse 3-month outcomes (3-month modified Rankin Scale score [interquartile range] 3.0 [4.0] vs. 2.0 [3.0]; p < 0.01), even after adjusting for confounders. In COVID-positive individuals no such difference between the sexes, either in acute management metrics or in 3-month outcome, was seen.

CONCLUSION

Known sex-related differences in acute stroke management exist and extend to times of crisis. Nevertheless, if patients were COVID-19-positive at stroke onset, women and men were treated the same, which could be attributed to structured treatment pathways.

Glucagon-Like Receptor-1 Agonists and Stroke: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cardiovascular Outcome Trials

BACKGROUND

In stroke survivors, approximately 15% and 60% exhibit concurrent diabetes mellitus and overweight/obesity, respectively, necessitating heightened secondary prevention efforts. Despite Glucagon-like receptor-1 agonists (GLP-1 RAs) demonstrating improved outcomes for those with diabetes mellitus or obesity, their underutilization persists among eligible individuals. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the impact of GLP-1 RAs on stroke risk. The findings aim to optimize the implementation of this therapeutic strategy in stroke survivors with diabetes mellitus or obesity.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed MEDLINE and Scopus until 15/11/2023. Eligible studies included randomized cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) with individuals, with or without type 2 diabetes, randomized to either GLP-1 RA or placebo. The outcomes were total strokes, non-fatal strokes, and fatal strokes. Analyses were conducted using RevMan 5.4.1.

RESULTS

Among 1,369 screened studies, 11 were eligible, encompassing 82,140 participants (34.6% women) with a cumulative follow-up of 247,596 person-years. In the GLP-1 RAs group, the stroke rate was significantly lower compared to placebo (RR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.77-0.93; NNT: 200), showing no heterogeneity or interaction with administration frequency (daily vs. weekly). Additionally, the GLP-1 RAs group exhibited a significantly lower rate of non-fatal strokes compared to placebo (RR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.95; NNT: 250), with no heterogeneity or interaction based on administration frequency, route (oral vs subcutaneous), or diabetes presence.

CONCLUSION

In this meta-analysis of 11 CVOTs with 82,140 participants, GLP-1 RAs demonstrated a 16% relative reduction in stroke risk compared to placebo. This finding may increase implementation of GLP-1 RAs by stroke specialists in individuals with stroke and comorbid diabetes mellitus or obesity.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Bilateral watershed infarcts due to hypoperfusion in the context of drug abuse: case report

BACKGROUND

Watershed infarcts (WIs) are a distinct type of stroke with a varying clinical presentation that affects the border areas between the territories of two cerebral arteries and are typically associated with hemodynamic impairment and internal carotid artery stenosis. However, there is a paucity of data concerning its association with the history of recreational substance and drug abuse.

METHODS/CASE REPORT

This case report presents a unique instance of bilateral internal watershed infarcts in a 23-year-old male with a history of polysubstance abuse, including methadone and cocaine. The patient's presentation included confusion, lower limb weakness, and systemic complications such as acute liver injury and myonecrosis, underlying the complexity of the clinical scenario.

RESULTS

The investigation revealed no evidence of arterial stenosis or thrombosis, leading to the conclusion that the infarctions were likely precipitated by a total loss of consciousness due to substance abuse-related cerebral hypoperfusion and vasoconstriction. Methadone and cocaine, both implicated in vasoconstriction, lowering the seizure threshold and contributing to QTc prolongation, thus leading to loss of consciousness, were identified as potential triggers for the episode.

CONCLUSIONS

In the young adult population, it is important to consider drug abuse as an etiological trigger for watershed infarcts, whereas the multi-system involvement and atypical presentation highlight the need for a comprehensive approach.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

New race-free creatinine- and cystatin C-based equations for the estimation of glomerular filtration rate and association with cardiovascular mortality in the AtheroGene study

Renal function is associated with cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. Among equations used to eGFR, CKD-EPI equations show more accurate association with cardiovascular risk and mortality than MDRD. Recently, new CKD-EPI equations were proposed which do not include race and would be considered sufficiently accurate to estimate eGFR in clinical practice. It is unknown if these new race-free equations are comparably well associated with cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk individuals. The analysis was performed in the AtheroGene Study cohort including patients at high cardiovascular risk. eGFR was determined using the established as well as the recently developed formulas which are calculated without the otherwise existing coefficient for black race. The outcome was cardiovascular death. Analyses included Cox-proportional hazard regression and area-under-the-curve calculation. The analysis included 2089 patients followed up for a median of 3.8 years with a maximum of 6.9 years, corresponding to an overall period of 7701 patient-years. Cardiovascular death occurred in 93 (4.45%), corresponding to an annualized rate of 1.2/100 person-years. In all Cox regression analyses, the estimated adjusted GFR was an independent predictor of cardiovascular death. The equations which included cystatin C showed higher C-index compared to those which did not include cystatin C (0.75-0.76 vs. 0.71, respectively). The equations for the estimation of eGFR which include cystatin C are better associated with cardiovascular death compared to the race-free equations which include only creatinine. This finding adds on the related literature which supports the elimination of race in GFR-estimating equations, and promotion of the use of cystatin C.

Calprotectin serum levels on admission and during follow-up predict severity and outcome of patients with COVID-19: A prospective study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Calprotectin reflects neutrophil activation and is increased in various inflammatory conditions including severe COVID-19. However, serial serum calprotectin measurements in COVID-19 patients are limited. We assessed prospectively, calprotectin levels as biomarker of severity/outcome of the disease and a COVID-19 monitoring parameter in a large cohort of consecutive COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Calprotectin serum levels were measured in 736 patients (58.2 % males; median age 63-years; moderate disease, n = 292; severe, n = 444, intubated and/or died, n = 50). Patients were treated with combined immunotherapies according to our published local algorithm. The endpoint was the composite event of intubation due to severe respiratory failure (SRF)/COVID-19-related mortality.

RESULTS

Median (interquartile range) calprotectin levels were significantly higher in patients with severe disease [7(8.2) vs. 6.1(8.1)μg/mL, p = 0.015]. Calprotectin on admission was the only independent risk factor for intubation/death (HR=1.473, 95 %CI=1.003-2.165, p = 0.048) even after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, comorbidities, neutrophils, lymphocytes, neutrophil to lymphocytes ratio, ferritin, and CRP. The area under the curve (AUC, 95 %CI) of calprotectin for prediction of intubation/death was 0.619 (0.531-0.708), with an optimal cut-off at 13 μg/mL (sensitivity: 44 %, specificity: 79 %, positive and negative predictive values: 13 % and 95 %, respectively). For intubated/died patients, paired comparisons from baseline to middle of hospitalization and subsequently to intubation/death showed significant increase of calprotectin (p = 0.009 and p < 0.001, respectively). Calprotectin alteration had the higher predictive ability for intubation/death [AUC (95 %CI):0.803 (0.664-0.943), p < 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Calprotectin levels on admission and their subsequent dynamic alterations could serve as indicator of COVID-19 severity and predict the occurrence of SRF and mortality.

Adherence to an integrated care pathway for stroke is associated with lower risk of major cardiovascular events: A report from the Athens Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND

A recent European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Council on Stroke position paper proposed a holistic integrated care management approach for stroke patients, to improve cardiovascular outcomes. The impact of implementing the ABCstroke pathway 'concept' on clinical outcomes has never been estimated before. In order to investigate the potential effect of ABCstroke pathway adherence to cardiovascular outcomes post stroke, we performed a post-hoc analysis from the Athens Stroke Registry.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This analysis was performed in the Athens Stroke Registry, which includes all consecutive patients with acute first-ever ischemic stroke. The Kaplan-Meier product limit was used to estimate the cumulative hazard of each outcome according to adherence with the ABCstroke pathway. We studied 2513 patients [median (IQR) age 71 (62-78) years; 37.7 % female] with ischemic stroke with median follow-up period of 30 (6-75) months. Full adherence to the ABC pathway was identified in 156 (6.2 %) of the patients, while 192 (7.6 %) did not adhere to any of the therapeutic pillars of ABCstroke. Full adherence to ABC treatment pathway was associated with significant reduction of stroke recurrence, compared to patients with no or partial adherence (aHR: 0.61; 95 %CI: 0.37-0.99), as well as a lower risk of MACE (HR: 0.59; 0.39-0.88) and death (aHR: 0.22; 95 %CI: 0.12-0.41).

CONCLUSION

Full adherence to the ABCstroke pathway based on the current guidelines was evident in only 6.2 % of our ischaemic stroke cohort but was independently associated with lower risks of stroke recurrence, major cardiovascular events and mortality. This highlights a potential opportunity to improve clinical outcomes post-stroke with a holistic or integrated care management approach.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Magnetic resonance imaging for diagnostic workup of embolic stroke of undetermined source: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) refers to ischemic stroke where the underlying cause of thromboembolism cannot be found despite the recommended diagnostic workup. Unidentified source of emboli hinders clinical decision-making and patient management with detrimental consequences on long-term prognosis. The rapid development and versatility of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) make it an appealing addition to the diagnostic routine of patients with ESUS for the assessment of potential vascular and cardiac embolic sources.

AIMS

To review the use of MRI in the identification of cardiac and vascular embolic sources in ESUS and to assess the reclassification value of MRI examinations added to the conventional workup of ESUS.

SUMMARY OF REVIEW

We reviewed the use of cardiac and vascular MRI for the identification of a variety of embolic sources associated with ESUS, including atrial cardiomyopathy, left ventricular pathologies, and supracervical atherosclerosis in carotid and intracranial arteries and in distal thoracic aorta. The additional reclassification after MRI examinations added to the workup of patients with ESUS ranged from 6.1% to 82.3% and varied depending on the combination of imaging modalities.

CONCLUSION

MRI techniques allow us to identify additional cardiac and vascular embolic sources and may further decrease the prevalence of patients with the diagnosis of ESUS.

Albumin Levels and Risk of Early Cardiovascular Complications After Ischemic Stroke: A Propensity-Matched Analysis of a Global Federated Health Network

BACKGROUND

No studies have investigated the association between albumin levels and the risk of early cardiovascular complications in patients with ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis with a federated research network (TriNetX) based on electronic medical records (International Classification of Diseases-Tenth Revision-Clinical Modification and logical observation identifiers names and codes) mainly reported between 2000 and 2023, from 80 health care organizations in the United States. Based on albumin levels measured at admission to the hospital, patients with ischemic stroke were categorized into 2 groups: (1) reduced (≤3.4 g/dL) and (2) normal (≥3.5 g/dL) albumin levels. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, ventricular arrhythmias, myocardial infarction, and Takotsubo cardiomyopathy 30 days from the stroke. Secondary outcomes were the risk for each component of the primary outcome. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs following propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Overall, 320 111 patients with stroke had normal albumin levels (70.9±14.7 years; 48.9% females) and 183 729 (57.4%) had reduced albumin levels (72.9±14.3 years; 50.3% females). After propensity score matching, the primary outcomes occurred in 36.0% of patients with reduced and 26.1% with normal albumin levels (HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.46-1.50]). The higher risk in patients with reduced albumin levels was consistent also for all-cause death (HR, 2.77 [95% CI, 2.70-2.84]), heart failure (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.29-1.34]), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.09-1.13]), ventricular arrhythmias (HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.30-1.46]), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.54-1.65]), and Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (HR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.26-1.82]). The association between albumin levels and the risk of cardiovascular events was independent of advanced age, sex, multimorbidity, and other causes of hypoalbuminemia. A progressively increased risk of adverse events was found in patients with mild and severe reduced compared to normal albumin levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin levels are associated with the risk of early cardiovascular events and death in patients with ischemic stroke. The potential pathophysiological or therapeutic roles of albumin in patients with stroke warrant further investigation.

Direct oral anticoagulants are associated with lower risk of dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risk of dementia. Whether direct oral anticoagulation (DOAC) reduce this risk compared to vitamin-K antagonist (VKA) is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of new all-cause dementia and vascular dementia in AF patients, treated with either DOAC or VKAs.

METHODS

Anonymized electronic medical records from the TriNetX federated research network were used. AF patients treated with DOACs within 1 month of AF diagnosis, were 1:1 propensity score-matched with those treated with a VKA. The analysis included patients who completed 5 and 10 years of follow-up and were assessed for all-cause dementia and vascular dementia. Cox proportional hazard models were used to hazard ratios (HR), respectively with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among patients who completed 5 years of follow-up, after propensity score matching the final cohort consisted of 215,404 well-matched AF patients. All-cause dementia was diagnosed in 4,153 (3.9%) patients among those treated with DOACs and 4,150 (3.9%) among the VKA-treated patients (HR: 1.01, 95%CI: 0.96-1.05). Among patients 65-74 years old who were followed, DOAC treatment was associated with lower risk of dementia compared to VKAs (HR: 0.72; 95%CI: 0.59-0.86). Among patients who completed 10 years of follow-up, after propensity score matching the final cohort consisted of 19,208 well-matched AF patients. All-cause dementia was diagnosed in 314 (3.3%) patients among those treated with DOACs and 451 (4.7%) among the VKA-treated patients. DOAC treatment was associated with significantly lower risk of all-cause dementia during a follow-up period of 10 years compared to VKA treatment (HR: 0.72, 95%CI: 0.62-0.83), which remained consistent in patiens ≥65 years old.

CONCLUSION

This propensity-score matched analysis showed that among AF patients, treatment with a DOACs for a period of 10 years was associated with lower risk of all-cause dementia and vascular dementia compared to VKA treatment, an effect which was not apparent in those treated for shorter duration. This finding requires confirmation in ongoing randomised controlled trials.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in heart failure patients across the range of body mass index: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors improve outcomes in patients with heart failure, with or without diabetes. We sought to assess whether there is an interaction of these effects with body mass index (BMI). A systematic review of the MEDLINE and Scopus databases (last search: November 15th, 2022) was performed according to the PRISMA statement. Studies eligible for this review were randomized control trials (RCTs) with patients with chronic heart failure with either preserved or reduced ejection fraction randomly assigned to SGLT2 inhibitors or placebo. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers. BMI was classified according to the WHO classification into under/normal weight (BMI: < 25 kg/m2), overweight (BMI: 25-29.9 kg/m2), obesity class I (BMI: 30-34.9 kg/m2), and obesity classes II/III (BMI: ≥ 35 kg/m2). All analyses were performed using RevMan 5.4. Among 1461 studies identified in the literature search, 3 were eligible and included in the meta-analysis. Among 14,737 patients (32.2% were women), 7,367 were randomized to an SGLT2 inhibitor (dapagliflozin or empagliflozin) and 7,370 to placebo. There were significantly fewer hospitalizations for HF (OR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.64-0.76), cardiovascular deaths (OR:0.86, 95%CI: 0.77-0.97) and all-cause deaths (OR:0.90, 95%CI: 0.82-0.98) in the SGLT2 inhibitors group compared to the placebo group, without any interaction with BMI group (test for subgroup differences: x2 = 1.79, p = 0.62; x2 = 0.27, p = 0.97; x2 = 0.39, p = 0.94, respectively). There is no interaction between the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors and BMI in patients with HF with either preserved or reduced ejection fraction. SGLT2 inhibitors are associated with improved outcomes regardless of the BMI.Trial registration: PROSPERO ID: CRD42022383643.

Beyond antithrombotics: recent advances in pharmacological risk factor management for secondary stroke prevention

Patients with ischaemic stroke represent a diverse group with several cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities, which classify them as patients at very high risk of stroke recurrence, cardiovascular adverse events or death. In addition to antithrombotic therapy, which is important for secondary stroke prevention in most patients with stroke, cardiovascular risk factor assessment and treatment also contribute significantly to the reduction of mortality and morbidity. Dyslipidaemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension represent common and important modifiable cardiovascular risk factors among patients with stroke, while early recognition and treatment may have a significant impact on patients' future risk of major cardiovascular events. In recent years, there have been numerous advancements in pharmacological agents aimed at secondary cardiovascular prevention. These innovations, combined with enhanced awareness and interventions targeting adherence and persistence to treatment, as well as lifestyle modifications, have the potential to substantially alleviate the burden of cardiovascular disease, particularly in patients who have experienced ischaemic strokes. This review summarises the evidence on the contemporary advances on pharmacological treatment and future perspectives of secondary stroke prevention beyond antithrombotic treatment.

Quality Indicators and Clinical Outcomes of Acute Stroke: Results from a Prospective Multicenter Registry in Greece (SUN4P)

AIM

The Stroke Units Necessity for Patients (SUN4P) project aims to provide essential data on stroke healthcare in Greece. Herein, we present results on established quality indicators and outcomes after first-ever stroke occurrences.

METHODS

This prospective multicenter study included consecutive patients admitted to nine hospitals across Greece in 2019-2021. Descriptive statistics were used to present patients' characteristics, key performance measures and stroke outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 892 patients, 755 had ischemic stroke (IS) (mean age 75.6 ± 13.6, 48.7% males) and 137 had hemorrhagic stroke (HS) (mean age 75.8 ± 13.2, 57.7% males). Of those, 15.4% of IS and 8% of HS patients were treated in the acute stroke unit (ASU) and 20.7% and 33.8% were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) or high-dependency unit (HDU), respectively. A total of 35 (4.6%) out of 125 eligible patients received intravenous alteplase with a door-to needle time of 60 min (21-90). The time to first scan for IS patients was 60 min (31-105) with 53.2% undergoing a CT scan within 60 min post presentation. Furthermore, 94.4% were discharged on antiplatelets, 69.8% on lipid-lowering therapy and 61.6% on antihypertensives. Oral anticoagulants (OAC) were initiated in 73.2% of the 153 IS patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Among the 687 IS patients who survived, 85.4% were discharged home, 12% were transferred to rehabilitation centers, 1.2% to nursing homes and 1.3% to another hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

The SUN4P Registry is the first study to provide data from a prospectively collected cohort of consecutive patients from nine representative national hospitals. It represents an important step in the evaluation and improvement of the quality of acute stroke care in Greece.

Argatroban as an Add-On to rtPA in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Current treatment options for acute ischemic stroke, including intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and mechanical thrombectomy, have undoubtedly revolutionized stroke care. The need for additional treatment options has brought into the light direct thrombin inhibitors (DTIs) and, specifically, argatroban as a promising candidate. However, there is uncertainty regarding the safety of adding argatroban to IVT, mainly due to the increased hemorrhagic risk. In this study, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis examining the safety and efficacy of argatroban as an add-on treatment for IVT. The following databases were searched from inception until the 14th of May 2023: Pubmed/MEDLINE, ClinicalTrials.gov, the EU Clinical Trials Register, EMBASE/Scopus, and the Cochrane Library. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) enrolling patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent IVT evaluating the add-on use of any DTIs were selected for the systematic review and further meta-analysis. The PRISMA guidelines were followed at all stages. Four studies with argatroban were included in the final analysis. Analysis of risk ratio and relative risk shows that the add-on therapy with argatroban seems to be effective and favors a good clinical outcome (mRS 0-2) at 90 days, similar to that of alteplase. All studies showed a low pooled incidence of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (5%), parenchymal hematoma (3%), and other major bleeding (1%). Argatroban as an add-on treatment to IVT seems not to be associated with excessive bleeding risk; however, its efficacy remains unproven. According to this synopsis of the currently available evidence, it is premature to use argatroban as an add-on to IVT treatment outside the current clinical trial setting.

Effect of Asymptomatic and Symptomatic COVID-19 on Acute Ischemic Stroke Revascularization Outcomes

BACKGROUND

The association of COVID-19 with higher bleeding risk and worse outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) undergoing revascularization may be related to the presence of infection symptoms. We aimed to assess the safety and outcomes of revascularization treatments in patients with AIS with asymptomatic COVID-19 (AS-COVID) or symptomatic COVID-19 (S-COVID).

METHODS

We conducted an international multicenter retrospective cohort study of consecutive AIS tested for SARS-CoV-2, receiving intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular treatment between 2020 and 2021. We compared COVID-negative controls, AS-COVID, and S-COVID using multivariable regression. We assessed symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage), mortality, and 3-month disability (modified Rankin Scale score).

RESULTS

Among 15 124 patients from 105 centers (median age, 71 years; 49% men; 39% treated with intravenous thrombolysis only; and 61% with endovascular treatment±intravenous thrombolysis), 849 (5.6%) had COVID-19, of whom 395 (46%) were asymptomatic and 454 (54%) symptomatic. Compared with controls, both patients with AS-COVID and S-COVID had higher symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage rates (COVID-controls, 5%; AS-COVID, 7.6%; S-COVID, 9.4%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.43 [95% CI, 1.03-1.99]; aOR, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.14-2.32], respectively). Only in patients with symptomatic infections, we observed a significant increase in mortality at 24 hours (COVID-controls, 1.3%; S-COVID, 4.8%; aOR, 2.97 [95% CI, 1.76-5.03]) and 3 months (COVID-controls, 19.5%; S-COVID, 40%; aOR, 2.64 [95% CI, 2.06-3.37]). Patients with COVID-19 had worse 3-month disability regardless of disease symptoms although disability was affected to a greater extent in symptomatic patients (aOR for worse modified Rankin Scale score shift: AS-COVID, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.03-1.51]; S-COVID, 2.10 [95% CI, 1.75-2.53]). S-COVID had lower successful recanalization (74.9% versus 85.6%; P<0.001), first pass recanalization (20.3% versus 28.3%; P=0.005), and a higher number of passes.

CONCLUSIONS

In AIS undergoing revascularization treatments, both AS-COVID and S-COVID influence the risk of intracranial bleeding and worse clinical outcomes. The magnitude of this effect is more pronounced in symptomatic infections, which also present less favorable recanalization outcomes. These findings emphasize the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the prognosis of revascularized AIS independent of symptom status.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04895462.

Efficacy and safety of direct oral anticoagulants vs vitamin K antagonists in patients with atrial fibrillation and end-stage renal disease on hemodialysis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in individuals with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on chronic hemodialysis is increasing. The optimal anticoagulant choice in this population is unclear since these patients were excluded from the pivotal randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) vs. vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in the general AF population. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of DOACs vs. VKAs in patients with AF and ESRD on chronic hemodialysis through a systematic review and meta-analysis of all available evidence.

PATIENTS/METHODS

We performed a systematic search in MEDLINE and Scopus for RCTs or observational studies of patients with AF and ESRD on chronic hemodialysis who were treated with DOACs or VKAs. The outcomes of interest included ischemic stroke, the composite of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, minor bleeding events and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 397 studies identified from the literature search, six studies (three RCTs and three observational studies) were included in the meta-analysis. Compared with VKA-treated patients, those treated with DOACs had similar risk of ischemic stroke (RR:0.76, 95% CI:0.41-1.41), ischemic stroke or systemic embolism (RR:0.65, 95% CI:0.38-1.10), major bleeding (RR:0.79, 95% CI:0.49-1.28) and all-cause death (RR:0.79, 95% CI:0.56-1.12). The risk of gastrointestinal bleeding was lower in DOAC- vs VKA-treated patients in three eligible observational studies (RR:0.73, 95% CI: 0.54-0.99, I2 = 79%) but this was not confirmed in two eligible RCTs (RR:0.69, 95% CI: 0.33-1.43, I2 = 0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Among AF patients with ESRD on chronic hemodialysis, the risk of ischemic stroke, ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, minor bleeding, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality is similar in patients treated with DOACs compared to VKAs. Given that the meta-analysis of RCTs on gastrointestinal bleeding did not confirm the results of the meta-analysis of the observational studies, it cannot be concluded that gastrointestinal bleeding is lower among DOAC-treated patients.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42023391966.

Safety and efficacy of factor XIa inhibition with milvexian for secondary stroke prevention (AXIOMATIC-SSP): a phase 2, international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial

BACKGROUND

People with factor XI deficiency have lower rates of ischaemic stroke than the general population and infrequent spontaneous bleeding, suggesting that factor XI has a more important role in thrombosis than in haemostasis. Milvexian, an oral small-molecule inhibitor of activated factor XI, added to standard antiplatelet therapy, might reduce the risk of non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke without increasing the risk of bleeding. We aimed to estimate the dose-response of milvexian for recurrent ischaemic cerebral events and major bleeding in patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA).

METHODS

AXIOMATIC-SSP was a phase 2, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial done at 367 hospitals in 27 countries. Eligible participants aged 40 years or older, with acute (<48 h) ischaemic stroke or high-risk TIA, were randomly assigned by a web-based interactive response system in a 1:1:1:1:1:2 ratio to receive one of five doses of milvexian (25 mg once daily, 25 mg twice daily, 50 mg twice daily, 100 mg twice daily, or 200 mg twice daily) or matching placebo twice daily for 90 days. All participants received clopidogrel 75 mg daily for the first 21 days and aspirin 100 mg daily for the first 90 days. Investigators, site staff, and participants were masked to treatment assignment. The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of ischaemic stroke or incident covert brain infarct on MRI at 90 days, assessed in all participants allocated to treatment who completed a follow-up MRI brain scan, and the primary analysis assessed the dose-response relationship with Multiple Comparison Procedure-Modelling (MCP-MOD). The main safety outcome was major bleeding at 90 days, assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of the study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03766581) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (2017-005029-19).

FINDINGS

Between Jan 27, 2019, and Dec 24, 2021, 2366 participants were randomly allocated to placebo (n=691); milvexian 25 mg once daily (n=328); or twice-daily doses of milvexian 25 mg (n=318), 50 mg (n=328), 100 mg (n=310), or 200 mg (n=351). The median age of participants was 71 (IQR 62-77) years and 859 (36%) were female. At 90 days, the estimates of the percentage of participants with either symptomatic ischaemic stroke or covert brain infarcts were 16·8 (90·2% CI 14·5-19·1) for placebo, 16·7 (14·8-18·6) for 25 mg milvexian once daily, 16·6 (14·8-18·3) for 25 mg twice daily, 15·6 (13·9-17·5) for 50 mg twice daily, 15·4 (13·4-17·6) for 100 mg twice daily, and 15·3 (12·8-19·7) for 200 mg twice daily. No significant dose-response was observed among the five milvexian doses for the primary composite efficacy outcome. Model-based estimates of the relative risk with milvexian compared with placebo were 0·99 (90·2% CI 0·91-1·05) for 25 mg once daily, 0·99 (0·87-1·11) for 25 mg twice daily, 0·93 (0·78-1·11) for 50 mg twice daily, 0·92 (0·75-1·13) for 100 mg twice daily, and 0·91 (0·72-1·26) for 200 mg twice daily. No apparent dose-response was observed for major bleeding (four [1%] of 682 participants with placebo, two [1%] of 325 with milvexian 25 mg once daily, two [1%] of 313 with 25 mg twice daily, five [2%] of 325 with 50 mg twice daily, five [2%] of 306 with 100 mg twice daily, and five [1%] of 344 with 200 mg twice daily). Five treatment-emergent deaths occurred, four of which were considered unrelated to the study drug by the investigator.

INTERPRETATION

Factor XIa inhibition with milvexian, added to dual antiplatelet therapy, did not substantially reduce the composite outcome of symptomatic ischaemic stroke or covert brain infarction and did not meaningfully increase the risk of major bleeding. Findings from our study have informed the design of a phase 3 trial of milvexian for the prevention of ischaemic stroke in patients with acute ischaemic stroke or TIA.

FUNDING

Bristol Myers Squibb and Janssen Research & Development.

Obesity, metabolic health and clinical outcomes after incident cardiovascular disease: A nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between metabolic syndrome and increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is well-established. However, in patients with incident CVD, the relationship between obesity, metabolic health, and subsequent CVD and mortality outcomes are less well-established. This study investigated the association between body mass index (BMI), metabolic health and the risk of subsequent cardiovascular mortality and morbidity outcomes in patients with incident CVD events.

METHODS

This cohort study identified 130 685 patients from the nationwide Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) databases in the United Kingdom. Patients were ≥18 years with incident CVD [coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, or peripheral vascular disease (PVD)] between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2017. BMI (in kg/m2 ) was categorized as underweight (<18.5), normal (18.5-24.9), overweight (25.0-29.9) and obese (≥30). Within each BMI category, patients were grouped by increasing count of 1, 2 or 3 metabolic risk factors [RF] (dyslipidaemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension) and were regarded as metabolically unhealthy while absence of these factors was considered metabolically healthy (MH). Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the risk (hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval) of subsequent outcomes (non-fatal CHD, stroke, PVD, incident heart failure, CVD-mortality and all-cause mortality) in BMI subgroups with incremental count of metabolic RFs.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 13.0 years, a higher BMI was associated with reduced risk for stroke, PVD, CVD-mortality and all-cause mortality within each metabolic risk category, while increasing metabolic RFs within each BMI subgroup accounted for increasing risks. When compared with patients with normal BMI and no RF, CVD-mortality risk in overweight patients with no RF was 0.76 (0.70-0.84), and in obese patients with no RF was 0.85 (0.76-0.96). The respective risk for all-cause mortality in patients with overweight and no RF was 0.69 (0.65-0.72), and in obese patients with no RF was 0.75 (0.70-0.79). Subsequent outcomes of stroke and PVD showed similar trends. In contrast, the risk of subsequent non-fatal CHD events and incident HF increased with higher BMI and with incremental metabolic risk factors within each BMI category. Underweight was constantly associated with increased risk for all outcomes regardless of the presence of metabolic RFs except for non-fatal CHD events.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with incident CVD, overweight and obesity were related to a more favourable prognosis for subsequent stroke, PVD and mortality (CVD-related and all-cause) irrespective of the presence of other metabolic risk factors.

Anticoagulation in acute ischemic stroke patients with mechanical heart valves: To bridge or not with heparin. The ESTREM study

INTRODUCTION

The best therapeutic strategy for patients with mechanical heart valves (MHVs) having acute ischemic stroke during treatment with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) remain unclear. Being so, we compared the outcomes for: (i) full dose heparin along with VKA (bridging therapy group) and (ii) restarting VKA without heparin (nonbridging group).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

For this multicenter observational cohort study, data on consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients with MHV was retrospectively collected from prospective registries. Propensity score matching (PSM) was adopted to adjust for any treatment allocation confounders. The primary outcome was the composite of stroke, systemic embolism, symptomatic cerebral bleeding, and major extracerebral bleeding at 90 days.

RESULTS

Overall, 255 out of 603 patients (41.3%) received bridging therapy: 36 (14.1%) had combined outcome, compared with 28 (8.0%) in the nonbridging group (adjusted OR 1.83; 95% CI 1.05-3.18; p = 0.03). Within the bridging group, 13 patients (5.1%) compared to 12 (3.4%) in the nonbridging group had an ischemic outcome (adjusted OR 1.71; 95% CI 0.84-3.47; p = 0.2); major bleedings were recorded in 23 (9.0%) in the bridging group and 16 (4.6%) in the nonbridging group (adjusted OR 1.88; 95% CI 0.95-3.73; p = 0.07). After PSM, 36 (14.2%) of the 254 bridging patients had combined outcome, compared with 23 (9.1%) of 254 patients in the nonbridging group (OR 1.66; 95% CI 0.95-2.85; p = 0.07).

CONCLUSION

Acute ischemic stroke patients with MHV undergoing bridging therapy had a marginally higher risk of ischemic or hemorrhagic events, compared to nonbridging patients.

Antithrombotic Therapy in Arterial Thrombosis and Thromboembolism in COVID-19: An American College of Chest Physicians Expert Panel Report

BACKGROUND

Evidence increasingly shows that the risk of thrombotic complications in COVID-19 is associated with a hypercoagulable state. Several organizations have released guidelines for the management of COVID-19-related coagulopathy and prevention of VTE. However, an urgent need exists for practical guidance on the management of arterial thrombosis and thromboembolism in this setting.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the current available evidence informing the prevention and management of arterial thrombosis and thromboembolism in patients with COVID-19?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A group of approved panelists developed key clinical questions by using the Population, Intervention, Comparator, and Outcome (PICO) format that address urgent clinical questions regarding prevention and management of arterial thrombosis and thromboembolism in patients with COVID-19. Using MEDLINE via PubMed, a literature search was conducted and references were screened for inclusion. Data from included studies were summarized and reviewed by the panel. Consensus for the direction and strength of recommendations was achieved using a modified Delphi survey.

RESULTS

The review and analysis of the literature based on 11 PICO questions resulted in 11 recommendations. Overall, a low quality of evidence specific to the population with COVID-19 was found. Consequently, many of the recommendations were based on indirect evidence and prior guidelines in similar populations without COVID-19.

INTERPRETATION

The existing evidence and panel consensus do not suggest a major departure from the management of arterial thrombosis according to recommendations predating the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on the optimal strategies for prevention and management of arterial thrombosis and thromboembolism in patients with COVID-19 are sparse. More high-quality evidence is needed to inform management strategies in these patients.

Interaction of heart failure and stroke: A clinical consensus statement of the ESC Council on Stroke, the Heart Failure Association (HFA) and the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis

Heart failure (HF) is a major disease in our society that often presents with multiple comorbidities with mutual interaction and aggravation. The comorbidity of HF and stroke is a high risk condition that requires particular attention to ensure early detection of complications, efficient diagnostic workup, close monitoring, and consequent treatment of the patient. The bi-directional interaction between the heart and the brain is inherent in the pathophysiology of HF where HF may be causal for acute cerebral injury, and - in turn - acute cerebral injury may induce or aggravate HF via imbalanced neural and neurovegetative control of cardiovascular regulation. The present document represents the consensus view of the ESC Council on Stroke, the Heart Failure Association and the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis to summarize current insights on pathophysiological interactions of the heart and the brain in the comorbidity of HF and stroke. Principal aspects of diagnostic workup, pathophysiological mechanisms, complications, clinical management in acute conditions and in long-term care of patients with the comorbidity are presented and state-of-the-art clinical management and current evidence from clinical trials is discussed. Beside the physicians perspective, also the patients values and preferences are taken into account. Interdisciplinary cooperation of cardiologists, stroke specialists, other specialists and primary care physicians is pivotal to ensure optimal treatment in acute events and in continued long-term treatment of these patients. Key consensus statements are presented in a concise overview on mechanistic insights, diagnostic workup, prevention and treatment to inform clinical acute and continued care of patients with the comorbidity of HF and stroke.

Age-dependent sex differences in non-stenotic intracranial plaque of embolic stroke of undetermined source

Age and sex have effect on atherosclerosis. This study aimed to investigate their effect on non-stenotic intracranial atherosclerotic plaque (NIAP) in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) using high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HR-MRI). We retrospectively recruited consecutive ESUS patients who underwent intracranial HR-MRI to assess the plaque characteristics (remodeling index [RI], plaque burden [PB], fibrous cap [FC], discontinuity of plaque surface [DPS], intraplaque hemorrhage [IPH] and complicated plaque [CP]). We divided patients into three groups (< 60 years, 60-74 years, ≥ 75 years). 155 patients with ipsilateral NIAP were found from 243 ESUS patients, with 106 men (68.39%) and 49 women (31.61%). In total population or age group under 60 years, there were no significant differences in plaque characteristics between men and women (all p > 0.05). In age group of 60-74 years, men were associated with higher PB (66.27 ± 9.17% vs 60.91 ± 8.86%, p = 0.017) and RI (1.174 vs 1.156, p = 0.019), higher prevalence of DPS (82.50% vs 60.00%, p = 0.036) and complicated plaque (85.00% vs 63.33%, p = 0.036). For subjects ≥ 75 years old, PB were significantly higher in twomen vs men (68.85 ± 6.14% vs 62.62 ± 7.36%, p = 0.040). In addition, the probability for PBupper (≥ median PB), RIupper (≥ median RI) and vulnerable plaque increased as age increased, and its predictive power for index ESUS was higher in men than women. This study identified age-dependent sex differences in NIAP characteristics of ESUS patients, which will help us clarify their etiology.

Safety of Direct Oral Anticoagulants for Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Real-world Studies

GOALS AND BACKGROUND

Since the introduction of Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOACs), "real-world" studies have investigated their safety profile on gastrointestinal hemorrhage (GIH) when used by patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compile and summarize this data after Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines.

STUDY

Medline and Embase were systematically searched until April 2021. Observational studies that met predefined inclusion criteria were included and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CI were extracted. Subgroup analyses based on DOAC doses, history of chronic kidney disease, stroke, prior exposure to VKA (vitamin K antagonist), age, gender, geographic location of population samples, as well as Leave-One-Out and Low/Moderate Risk of Bias sensitivity analyses were performed. A random effects model was used.

RESULTS

A total of 46 studies were included. Apixaban was associated with a reduced risk of GIH compared with Dabigatran (HR: 0.67, 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.81, I2 : 53.28%), Rivaroxaban (HR: 0.56, 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.70, I2 : 79.17%), and VKA (HR: 0.68, 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.78, I2 : 71.93%). Rivaroxaban was associated with increased GIH risk compared with Dabigatran (HR: 1.19, 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.40, I2 : 72.96%) and VKA (HR: 1.16, 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.27, I2 : 81.95%). Dabigatran was associated with similar GIH risk compared with VKA (HR: 1.11, 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.26, I2 : 87.28%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that Apixaban was associated with a reduction in GIH risk compared with Dabigatran, Rivaroxaban and VKA, whereas Rivaroxaban was associated with an increase in GIH risk compared with both Dabigatran and VKA.

The association of intracranial atherosclerosis with cerebral small vessel disease imaging markers: a high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging study

To evaluate the association of intracranial non-stenotic atherosclerotic plaque with cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) imaging markers in a CSVD population using 3.0 T high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HRMRI), which was validated in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) cohort. We retrospectively recruited consecutive patients who were diagnosed with CSVD or ESUS from January 2015 to December 2019. All patients underwent intracranial HRMRI to assess intracranial non-stenotic atherosclerotic plaques. Baseline and imaging data were collected and were measured among all patients. Among 153 patients with CSVD, there were 59 with intracranial atherosclerotic plaque (IAP) and 94 with non-IAP, including 36 with intracranial atherosclerotic complicated plaque (IACP). Among 227 ESUS patients, there were 155 with IAP and 72 with non-IAP, including 127 with IACP. In the CSVD population, we found that: (1) CSVD burden was associated with IAP (p = 0.036) and IACP (p = 0.008); (2) IAP was associated with white matter hyperintensity (51% vs. 34%; P = 0.039), and IACP was associated with lacunes (69% vs. 35%; P = 0.009) and enlarge perivascular space (69% vs. 39%; P = 0.022). A similar association of CSVD imaging markers with IAP or IACP was found in the ESUS population. Furthermore, the association of unilateral IAP or IACP with CSVD imaging markers of ipsilateral hemisphere was identified in the two cohorts. This is the first report that intracranial non-stenotic atherosclerotic plaque, especially complicated plaque, is closely associated with CSVD imaging markers, which provide further evidence for the association of large artery atherosclerosis with CSVD.

Independent external validation of a stroke recurrence score in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source

BACKGROUND

Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) accounts for a substantial proportion of ischaemic strokes. A stroke recurrence score has been shown to predict the risk of recurrent stroke in patients with ESUS based on a combination of clinical and imaging features. This study aimed to externally validate the performance of the ESUS recurrence score using data from a randomized controlled trial.

METHODS

The validation dataset consisted of eligible stroke patients with available magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data enrolled in the PreDAFIS sub-study of the MonDAFIS study. The score was calculated using three variables: age (1 point per decade after 35 years), presence of white matter hyperintensities (2 points), and multiterritorial ischaemic stroke (3 points). Patients were assigned to risk groups as described in the original publication. The model was evaluated using standard discrimination and calibration methods.

RESULTS

Of the 1054 patients, 241 (22.9%) were classified as ESUS. Owing to insufficient MRI quality, three patients were excluded, leaving 238 patients (median age 65.5 years [IQR 20.75], 39% female) for analysis. Of these, 30 (13%) patients experienced recurrent ischaemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) during a follow-up period of 383 patient-years, corresponding to an incidence rate of 7.8 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 5.3-11.2). Patients with an ESUS recurrence score value of ≥ 7 had a 2.46 (hazard ratio (HR), 95% CI 1.02-5.93) times higher risk of stroke recurrence than patients with a score of 0-4. The cumulative probability of stroke recurrence in the low-(0-4), intermediate-(5-6), and high-risk group (≥ 7) was 9%, 13%, and 23%, respectively (log-rank test, χ2 = 4.2, p = 0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

This external validation of a published scoring system supports a threshold of ≥ 7 for identifying ESUS patients at high-risk of stroke recurrence. However, further adjustments may be required to improve the model's performance in independent cohorts. The use of risk scores may be helpful in guiding extended diagnostics and further trials on secondary prevention in patients with ESUS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trials, NCT02204267. Registered 30 July 2014, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02204267 .

Characteristics of intracranial plaque in patients with non-cardioembolic stroke and intracranial large vessel occlusion

OBJECTIVE

To determine the characteristics of intracranial plaque proximal to large vessel occlusion (LVO) in stroke patients without major-risk cardioembolic source using 3.0 T high-resolution MRI (HR-MRI).

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled eligible patients from January 2015 to July 2021. The multidimensional parameters of plaque such as remodelling index (RI), plaque burden (PB), percentage lipid-rich necrotic core (%LRNC), presence of discontinuity of plaque surface (DPS), fibrous cap rupture, intraplaque haemorrhage and complicated plaque were evaluated by HR-MRI.

RESULTS

Among 279 stroke patients, intracranial plaque proximal to LVO was more prevalent in the ipsilateral versus contralateral side to stroke (75.6% vs 58.8%, p<0.001). The larger PB (p<0.001), RI (p<0.001) and %LRNC (p=0.001), the higher prevalence of DPS (61.1% vs 50.6%, p=0.041) and complicated plaque (63.0% vs 50.6%, p=0.016) were observed in the plaque ipsilateral versus contralateral to stroke. Logistic analysis showed that RI and PB were positively associated with an ischaemic stroke (RI: crude OR: 1.303, 95% CI 1.072 to 1.584, p=0.008; PB: crude OR: 1.677, 95% CI 1.381 to 2.037, p<0.001). In subgroup with <50% stenotic plaque, the greater PB, RI, %LRNC and the presence of complicated plaque were more closely related to stroke, which was not evident in subgroup with ≥50% stenotic plaque.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to report the characteristics of intracranial plaque proximal to LVO in non-cardioembolic stroke. It provides potential evidence to support different aetiological roles of <50% stenotic vs ≥50% stenotic intracranial plaque in this population.

Risk Stratification Tools to Guide a Personalized Approach for Cardiac Monitoring in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

Current recommendations support a personalized sequential approach for cardiac rhythm monitoring to detect atrial fibrillation after embolic stroke of undetermined source. Several risk stratification scores have been proposed to predict the likelihood of atrial fibrillation after embolic stroke of undetermined source. This systematic review aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the field by identifying risk scores proposed for this purpose, assessing their characteristics and the cohorts in which they were developed and validated, and scrutinizing their predictive performance. We identified 11 risk scores, of which 4 were externally validated. The most frequent variables included were echocardiographic markers and demographics. The areas under the curve ranged between 0.70 and 0.94. The 3 scores with the highest area under the curve were the Decryptoring (0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-1.00]), newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.94]), and AF-ESUS (Atrial Fibrillation in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) (0.85 [95% CI, 0.80-0.87]), of which only the latter was externally validated. Risk stratification scores can guide a personalized approach for cardiac rhythm monitoring after embolic stroke of undetermined source.

The Cost and the Value of Stroke Care in Greece: Results from the SUN4P Study

The aim of this study was to measure the one-year total cost of strokes and to investigate the value of stroke care, defined as cost per QALY. The study population included 892 patients with first-ever acute strokes, hemorrhagic strokes, and ischemic strokes, (ICD-10 codes: I61, I63, and I64) admitted within 48 h of symptoms onset to nine public hospitals located in six cities. We conducted a bottom-up cost analysis from the societal point of view. All cost components including direct medical costs, productivity losses due to morbidity and mortality, and informal care costs were considered. We used an annual time horizon, including all costs for 2021, irrespective of the time of disease onset. The average cost (direct and indirect) was extrapolated in order to estimate the national annual burden associated with stroke. We estimated the total cost of stroke in Greece at EUR 343.1 mil. a year in 2021, (EUR 10,722/patient or EUR 23,308 per QALY). Out of EUR 343.1 mil., 53.3% (EUR 182.9 mil.) consisted of direct healthcare costs, representing 1.1% of current health expenditure in 2021. Overall, productivity losses were calculated at EUR 160.2 mil. The mean productivity losses were estimated to be 116 work days with 55.1 days lost due to premature retirement and absenteeism from work, 18.5 days lost due to mortality, and 42.4 days lost due to informal caregiving by family members. This study highlights the burden of stroke and underlines the need for stakeholders and policymakers to re-organize stroke care and promote interventions that have been proven cost-effective.

A population-based study exploring phenotypic clusters and clinical outcomes in stroke using unsupervised machine learning approach

Individuals developing stroke have varying clinical characteristics, demographic, and biochemical profiles. This heterogeneity in phenotypic characteristics can impact on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality outcomes. This study uses a novel clustering approach to stratify individuals with incident stroke into phenotypic clusters and evaluates the differential burden of recurrent stroke and other cardiovascular outcomes. We used linked clinical data from primary care, hospitalisations, and death records in the UK. A data-driven clustering analysis (kamila algorithm) was used in 48,114 patients aged ≥ 18 years with incident stroke, from 1-Jan-1998 to 31-Dec-2017 and no prior history of serious vascular events. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for subsequent adverse outcomes, for each of the generated clusters. Adverse outcomes included coronary heart disease (CHD), recurrent stroke, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), heart failure, CVD-related and all-cause mortality. Four distinct phenotypes with varying underlying clinical characteristics were identified in patients with incident stroke. Compared with cluster 1 (n = 5,201, 10.8%), the risk of composite recurrent stroke and CVD-related mortality was higher in the other 3 clusters (cluster 2 [n = 18,655, 38.8%]: hazard ratio [HR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.12; cluster 3 [n = 10,244, 21.3%]: HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.14-1.26; and cluster 4 [n = 14,014, 29.1%]: HR, 1.44; 95% CI: 1.37-1.50). Similar trends in risk were observed for composite recurrent stroke and all-cause mortality outcome, and subsequent recurrent stroke outcome. However, results were not consistent for subsequent risk in CHD, PVD, heart failure, CVD-related mortality, and all-cause mortality. In this proof of principle study, we demonstrated how a heterogenous population of patients with incident stroke can be stratified into four relatively homogenous phenotypes with differential risk of recurrent and major cardiovascular outcomes. This offers an opportunity to revisit the stratification of care for patients with incident stroke to improve patient outcomes.

MRI-based risk stratification for recurrent ischemic stroke in embolic stroke of undetermined source

OBJECTIVE

Leukoaraiosis and other brain MRI-assessed parameters were shown to be associated with recurrent stroke in this population. We aimed to develop an MRI-based predictive tool for risk stratification of ESUS patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed consecutive patients who were diagnosed with ESUS and underwent brain MRI and performed a multivariable analysis with the outcome of recurrent stroke/TIA. Based on the coefficient of each covariate, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. The discrimination and calibration of the score were assessed using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Also, we compared the new score with a previously published score (ALM score).

RESULTS

Among 176 patients followed for an overall period of 902.3 patient-years (median of 74 months), there were 39 recurrent ischemic stroke/TIAs (4.32 per 100 patient-years). Fazekas score (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03-1.54), enlarged perivascular space (EPVS) (HR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.12-6.17), NIHSS at admission (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.18), and infarct subtypes (HR: 2.88, 95% CI: 1.34-6.17) were associated with recurrent stroke/TIA. Accordingly, a score (FENS score) was developed with AUC-ROC values of 0.863, 0.788, and 0.858 for 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. These were significantly better than the AUC-ROC of ALM score (0.635, 0.695, and 0.705, respectively). The FENS score exhibited better calibration and discrimination ability than the ALM score (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2 : 4.402, p = 0.819).

CONCLUSION

The MRI-based FENS score can provide excellent predictive performance for recurrent stroke/TIA and may assist in risk stratification of ESUS patients.

Risk of recurrent stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants alone or in combination with anti-platelet therapy

INTRODUCTION

Ischaemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at high risk of stroke recurrence despite oral anticoagulation therapy. Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities may take both antiplatelet and oral anticoagulation therapy (OAC/AP). Our study aims to evaluate the safety and efficacy of OAC/AP therapy as secondary prevention in people with AF and ischaemic stroke.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a post-hoc analysis of pooled individual data from multicenter prospective cohort studies and compared outcomes in the OAC/AP cohort and patients on DOAC/VKA anticoagulation alone (OAC cohort). Primary outcome was a composite of ischaemic stroke, systemic embolism, intracranial bleeding, and major extracranial bleeding, while secondary outcomes were ischaemic and haemorrhagic events considered separately. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for outcome events. To compare the risk of outcome events between the two cohorts, the relation between the survival function and the set of explanatory variables were calculated by Cox proportional hazard models and the results were reported as adjusted hazard ratios (HR). Finally another analysis was performed to compare the overall risk of outcome events in both OAC/AP and OAC cohorts after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up time of 7.5 ± 9.1 months (median follow-up time 3.5 months, interquartile range ±3), 2284 stroke patients were on oral anticoagulants and 215 were on combined therapy. The multivariable model demonstrated that the composite outcome is associated with age (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04 for each year increase) and concomitant antiplatelet therapy (OR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.48-3.27), the ischaemic outcome with congestive heart failure (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.02-2.36) and concomitant antiplatelet therapy (OR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.19-3.13) and the haemorrhagic outcome with age (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.06 for each year increase), alcoholism (OR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.06-4.39) and concomitant antiplatelet therapy (OR: 2.22, 95% CI: 1.23-4.02). Cox regression demonstrated a higher rate of the composite outcome (hazard ratio of 1.93 [95% CI, 1.35-2.76]), ischaemic events (HR: 2.05 [95% CI: 1.45-2.87]) and bleeding outcomes (HR: 1.90 [95% CI, 1.06-3.40]) in OAC/AP cohort. After PSM analysis, the composite outcome remained more frequent in people treated with OAC + AP (RR: 1.70 [95% CI, 1.05-2.74]).

DISCUSSION

Secondary prevention with combination of oral anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy after ischaemic stroke was associated with worse outcomes in our cohort.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to improve secondary prevention by investigating the mechanisms of recurrent ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation.

C-reactive protein levels are associated with early cardiac complications or death in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a propensity-matched analysis of a global federated health from the TriNetX network

The role of inflammation in predicting early cardiac complications among stroke patients is unclear. Electronic medical records from TriNetX, a global federated health research network, were used for this retrospective analysis. Patients with ischemic stroke and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) levels measured within 24 h post-stroke were categorized into three groups: (i) < 1 mg/L, (ii)1-3 mg/L and (iii) > 3 mg/L. The primary outcome was a composite outcome of cardiac complications (heart failure (HF), ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation (AF), ventricular arrhythmias and Takotsubo cardiomyopathy) or death at 30 days from the index event. Cox-regression analyses were used to produce hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) following 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM). Of the 104,741 patients enrolled, 51% were female and the mean age was 66 ± 16 years. After PSM, a new cardiac complication or death within 30 days occurred in 5624 (33.1%) patients with CRP > 3 mg/L, in 4243 (25.6%) patients with CRP 1-3 mg/L and in 3891 (23.5%) patients with CRP < 1 mg/L. Patients with CRP levels of 1-3 mg/L and > 3 mg/L had higher risk of the composite outcome (HR 1.10, 95%CI 1.05-1.52; HR 1.51, 95%CI 1.45-1.58), death (HR 1.43, 95%CI 1.24-1.64; HR 3.50, 95%CI 3.01-3.96), HF (HR 1.08, 95%CI 1.01-1.16; HR 1.51, 95%CI 1.41-1.61), AF (HR 1.10, 95% CI:1.02-1.18; HR 1.42, 95%CI 1.33-1.52) and ventricular arrhythmias (HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.02-1.52; HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.38-2.01) compared to those with CRP < 1 mg/L. Ischemic heart disease were more common among patients with CRP levels > 3 mg/L compared to those with CRP < 1 mg/L (HR:1.33, 95% CI:1.26-1.40), while no association with Takotsubo cardiomyopathy was found in all the analyses. CRP levels within the first 24 h of an ischemic stroke predict 30-day cardiac complications or death.

Midday Dipping and Circadian Blood Pressure Patterns in Acute Ischemic Stroke

The purpose of this study was to investigate the alterations in blood pressure (BP) during midday and the changes in circadian BP patterns in the acute phase of ischemic stroke (AIS) with the severity of stroke and their predictive role outcomes within 3 months. A total of 228 AIS patients (a prospective multicenter follow-up study) underwent 24 h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). Mean BP parameters during the day (7:00-22:59), the midday (13:00-16:59), and the night (23:00-6:59), and midday and nocturnal dipping were calculated. Midday SBP dippers had less severe stroke, lower incidence of hypertension and SBP/DBP on admission, lower levels of serum glucose and WBCs, and delayed initiation of ABPM compared to risers. There was a reverse relation between midday SBP dipping and both nocturnal dipping and stroke severity. The "double dippers" (midday and nocturnal dipping) had the least severe stroke, the lowest SBP/DBP on admission, the lowest heart rate from ABPM, and a lower risk of an unfavorable outcome, while the "double risers" had the opposite results, by an approximately five-fold risk of death/disability at 3 months. These findings indicate different circadian BP patterns during the acute phase of AIS, which could be considered a marker of stroke severity and prognosis.

Prognostic significance of 24-h blood pressure and variability indices in the outcome of acute ischaemic stroke

BACKGROUND

The association between blood pressure (BP) levels and BP variability (BPV) following acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) and outcome remains controversial.

AIMS

To investigate the predictive value of systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) and BPV measured using 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) methods during AIS regarding outcome.

METHODS

A total of 228 AIS patients (175 without prior disability) underwent ABPM every 20 min within 48 h from onset using an automated oscillometric device (TM 2430, A&D Company Ltd) during day time (7:00-22:59) and night time (23:00-6:59). Risk factors, stroke subtypes, clinical and laboratory findings were recorded. Mean BP parameters and several BPV indices were calculated. End-points were death and unfavourable functional outcome (disability/death) at 3 months.

RESULTS

A total of 61 (26.7%) patients eventually died. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only mean night-time DBP (hazard ratio (HR): 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.07) was an independent prognostic factor of death. Of the 175 patients without prior disability, 79 (45.1%) finally met the end-point of unfavourable functional outcome. Mean 24-h SBP (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05), day-time SBP (HR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05) and night-time SBP (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.05), SBP nocturnal decline (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88-0.99), mean 24-h DBP (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03-1.13), day-time DBP (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.03-1.12) and night-time DBP (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.02-1.10) were independent prognostic factors of an unfavourable functional outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast with BPV indices, ABPM-derived BP levels and lower or absence of BP nocturnal decline in the acute phase are prognostic factors of outcome in AIS patients.

Stroke Patients' Management During COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from the Sun4Patients Web-Based Registry

Covid-19 pandemic has influenced stroke care in different ways. Recent reports demonstrated a sharp decline in acute stroke admissions worldwide. Even for patients presented to dedicated healthcare services, management at the acute phase may be sub-optimal. On the other hand, Greece has been praised for the early initiation of restriction measures which were associated with a 'milder' surge of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Data derived from a prospective cohort multicenter registry. The study population consisted of first-ever acute stroke patients, hemorrhagic or ischemic, admitted within 48 hours of symptom onset in seven national healthcare system (NHS) and University hospitals in Greece. Two different time periods have been considered, defined as "before Covid-19" (15/12/2019-15/02/2020) and "during Covid-19" (16/02/2020-15/04-2020) era. Statistical comparisons on acute stroke admission characteristics between the two different time periods have been performed. Results This exploratory analysis of 112 consecutive patients showed a reduction of acute stroke admissions by 40during Covid-19 period. No significant differences were observed regarding stroke severity, risk factor profile and baseline characteristics for patients admitted before and during Covid-19 pandemic period. There is a significant delay between symptom onset to CT scan during Covid-19 era compared to the period before pandemic reached Greece (p=0.03). Conclusions The rate of acute stroke admissions has been reduced by 40% during Covid-19 pandemic. Further research is needed to clarify whether the reduction in stroke volume is actual or not and identifying the reasons underlying the paradox.

Risk of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke in individuals with first-diagnosed paroxysmal vs. non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation under anticoagulation

AIMS

There is conflicting evidence on whether the type of atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with risk of cardiovascular events, including acute myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the risk of MI and ischemic stroke differs between individuals with first-diagnosed paroxysmal vs. non-paroxysmal AF treated with anticoagulants.

METHODS AND RESULTS

De-identified electronic medical records from the TriNetX federated research network were used. Individuals with a new diagnosis of paroxysmal AF who had no evidence of other types of AF in their records were 1:1 propensity score-matched with individuals with non-paroxysmal AF, defined as persistent or chronic AF, who had no evidence of other types of AF in their records. All patients were followed for three years for the outcomes of MI and ischemic stroke. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the propensity-matched cohort, among 24 848 well-matched AF individuals [mean age 74.4 ± 10.4; 10 101 (40.6%) female], 410 (1.7%) were diagnosed with acute MI and 875 (3.5%) with ischemic stroke during the three-year follow-up. Individuals with paroxysmal AF had significantly higher risk of acute MI (HR: 1.65, 95%CI: 1.35-2.01) compared to those with non-paroxysmal AF. First diagnosed paroxysmal AF was associated with higher risk of non-ST elevation MI (nSTEMI) (HR: 1.89, 95%CI: 1.44-2.46). No significant association was observed between the type of AF and risk of ischemic stroke (HR: 1.09, 95%CI: 0.95-1.25).

CONCLUSION

Patients with first-diagnosed paroxysmal AF had higher risk of acute MI compared to individuals with non-paroxysmal AF, attributed to the higher risk of nSTEMI among patients with first-diagnosed paroxysmal AF. There was no significant association between type of AF and risk of ischemic stroke.

Early versus Later Anticoagulation for Stroke with Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The effect of early as compared with later initiation of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in persons with atrial fibrillation who have had an acute ischemic stroke is unclear.

METHODS

We performed an investigator-initiated, open-label trial at 103 sites in 15 countries. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to early anticoagulation (within 48 hours after a minor or moderate stroke or on day 6 or 7 after a major stroke) or later anticoagulation (day 3 or 4 after a minor stroke, day 6 or 7 after a moderate stroke, or day 12, 13, or 14 after a major stroke). Assessors were unaware of the trial-group assignments. The primary outcome was a composite of recurrent ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, major extracranial bleeding, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, or vascular death within 30 days after randomization. Secondary outcomes included the components of the composite primary outcome at 30 and 90 days.

RESULTS

Of 2013 participants (37% with minor stroke, 40% with moderate stroke, and 23% with major stroke), 1006 were assigned to early anticoagulation and 1007 to later anticoagulation. A primary-outcome event occurred in 29 participants (2.9%) in the early-treatment group and 41 participants (4.1%) in the later-treatment group (risk difference, -1.18 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.84 to 0.47) by 30 days. Recurrent ischemic stroke occurred in 14 participants (1.4%) in the early-treatment group and 25 participants (2.5%) in the later-treatment group (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.07) by 30 days and in 18 participants (1.9%) and 30 participants (3.1%), respectively, by 90 days (odds ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.33 to 1.06). Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 2 participants (0.2%) in both groups by 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial, the incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, major extracranial bleeding, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, or vascular death at 30 days was estimated to range from 2.8 percentage points lower to 0.5 percentage points higher (based on the 95% confidence interval) with early than with later use of DOACs. (Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and others; ELAN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03148457.).

Right-to-Left Shunt in Divers with Neurological Decompression Sickness: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the association between the presence of a right-to-left shunt (RLS) and neurological decompression sickness (NDCS) and asymptomatic brain lesions among otherwise healthy divers.

BACKGROUND

Next to drowning, NDCS is the most severe phenotype of diving-related disease and may cause permanent damage to the brain and spinal cord. Several observational reports have described the presence of an RLS as a significant risk factor for neurological complications in divers, ranging from asymptomatic brain lesions to NDCS.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL databases from inception until November 2021. A random-effects model was used to compute odds ratios.

RESULTS

Nine observational studies consisting of 1830 divers (neurological DCS: 954; healthy divers: 876) were included. RLS was significantly more prevalent in divers with NDCS compared to those without (62.6% vs. 27.3%; odds ratio (OR): 3.83; 95% CI: 2.79-5.27). Regarding RLS size, high-grade RLS was more prevalent in the NDCS group than the no NDCS group (57.8% versus 18.4%; OR: 4.98; 95% CI: 2.86-8.67). Further subgroup analysis revealed a stronger association with the inner ear (OR: 12.13; 95% CI: 8.10-18.17) compared to cerebral (OR: 4.96; 95% CI: 2.43-10.12) and spinal cord (OR: 2.47; 95% CI: 2.74-7.42) DCS. RLS was more prevalent in divers with asymptomatic ischemic brain lesions than those without any lesions (46.0% vs. 38.0%); however, this was not statistically significant (OR: 1.53; 95% CI: 0.80-2.91).

CONCLUSIONS

RLS, particularly high-grade RLS, is associated with greater risk of NDCS. No statistically significant association between RLS and asymptomatic brain lesions was found.

Post-stroke cardiovascular management: Current concepts, integrated care and future developments

After an ischaemic stroke patients often have cardiovascular complications known as stroke-heart syndrome. The cardiovascular management after stroke has a significant impact on life expectancy as well as the quality of life. The development and implementation of management pathways to improve outcomes for patients with stroke-heart syndrome requires a multidisciplinary involvement from health care professionals from primary, secondary and tertiary prevention levels. A holistic, integrated care approach could follow the ABC pathway: A) Appropriate antithrombotic therapy in all stroke/TIA patients in the acute phase as well as recommendations for the longer term treatment regimen are required to avoid recurrent stroke. B) For better functional and psychological status the assessment of post-stroke cognitive and physical impairment, depression, and anxiety as part of routine post-stroke work-up in every patient is necessary. C) Cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities management further includes cardiovascular work-up, adapted drug therapy, but often also lifestyle changes that are central to the success of integrated care for stroke-heart syndrome. Greater patient and family/caregiver involvement in planning actions and the input and feedback on optimizing stroke care pathways is needed. Achieving integrated care is challenging and highly context dependent on different healthcare levels. A tailored approach will utilize a variety of enabling factors. In this narrative review, we summarize the current evidence and outline potential factors that will contribute to the successful implementation of integrated cardiovascular care for stroke-heart syndrome management.

Monitoring for atrial fibrillation prior to patent foramen ovale closure after cryptogenic stroke

BACKGROUND

Patients who had a cryptogenic stroke (CS) suspected to be causally related to a patent foramen ovale (PFO) are candidates for percutaneous PFO closure. In such patients, it is important to screen for atrial fibrillation (AF). Limited guidance is available regarding AF monitoring strategies in CS patients with PFO addressing optimal monitoring technology and duration.

AIM

To provide a narrative review of cardiac rhythm monitoring in CS patients considered for PFO closure, including current practices, stroke recurrences after CS, findings from monitoring studies in CS patients, and predictors for AF detection published in the literature. To propose a personalized strategy for cardiac monitoring in CS patients, accounting for aspects predicting AF detection.

SUMMARY OF REVIEW

AF detection in CS patients is predicted by age, left atrial enlargement, prolonged PR interval, frequent premature atrial contractions, interatrial conduction block, diabetes, prior brain infarctions, leukoaraiosis, elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, and a family history of AF, as well as composed scores (e.g. CHA₂DS₂-VASc, atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of undetermined source (AF-ESUS)). The causal role of the PFO may be accounted for by the risk of paradoxical embolism (RoPE) score and/or the PFO-Associated Stroke Causal Likelihood (PASCAL) classification.

CONCLUSION

A personalized approach to AF detection in CS patients is proposed, accounting for the likelihood of AF detection and aimed at obtaining sufficient confidence regarding the absence of AF in patients considered for PFO closure. In addition, the impact of high-risk PFO features on the monitoring strategy is discussed.

Efficacy and safety of vitamin-K antagonists and direct oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in patients with heart failure and sinus rhythm: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

INTRODUCTION

Heart failure (HF) is a major public health issue associated with significantly increased risk of stroke. It remains uncertain whether oral anticoagulation (OAC) in patients with heart failure and sinus rhythm (HF-SR) could improve prognosis.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of PubMed and Embase databases for randomized controlled clinical trials assessing oral anticoagulants versus antiplatelets or placebo in patients with HF or ventricular dysfunction/cardiomyopathy without clinical HF and SR. The outcomes assessed were stroke/systemic embolism, major bleeding, myocardial infarction, all-cause mortality, and HF hospitalization.

RESULTS

Seven trials of 15,794 patients were eligible for our analyses. The overall follow-up duration was 32,367 patient-years corresponding to a mean follow-up of 2.05 years per patient. Four trials included patients treated with warfarin and three included patients treated with rivaroxaban. OAC was associated with reduced rate of stroke or systemic embolism compared to control (odds ratio (OR): 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44, 0.73, number needed to treat (NNT): 71.9) but higher rate of major bleeding (OR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.47, 2.50, number needed to harm (NNH): 57.1). In the subgroup analysis according to the type of OAC, rivaroxaban was associated with significantly reduced rate of stroke or systemic embolism (1.24 vs 1.97 events per 100 patient-years, respectively, OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.45, 0.88, NNT: 82) and higher risk of major bleeding (OR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.20) compared to antiplatelets or placebo. There was no significant differences between groups for the outcomes of myocardial infarction, all-cause mortality, and HF hospitalization.

CONCLUSION

This analysis shows that any benefit of OAC for stroke prevention may be offset by an increased risk of major bleeding in HF-SR patients. A well-designed randomized controlled trial of newer safer OACs is needed in this population.

Cardiovascular outcomes and mortality after incident ischaemic stroke in patients with a recent cancer history

BACKGROUND

Up to 10% of patients with ischaemic stroke have comorbid cancer and stroke in these patients is thought to have a poor short-term prognosis. There is little known about the long-term cardiovascular morbidity and mortality outcomes after incident ischaemic stroke in patients with recent cancer history.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and mortality outcomes in patients with an incident ischaemic stroke and recent cancer history.

METHODS

Patients aged ≥18 years with an incident ischaemic stroke between 1998 and 2017, with any diagnosis of cancer within 12 months before the stroke event, and no prior history of serious vascular event were identified from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data. To minimize selection bias, these patients were propensity-score matched with patients with incident ischaemic stroke and no history of cancer. Propensity-score matching was done using covariates such as demographic data, vascular risk factors, comorbid conditions, and prescribed medication. Multivariable models (Competing risks and Cox regression) were used to determine the risk of subsequent major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) outcomes and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Our cohort included 22,460 patients with a median age of 75 (IQR 64-83) years and a follow-up of 12.3 (IQR 7.2-16.7) years. Recent cancer was identified in 1,149 patients (5.1%) at the time of incident ischaemic stroke. The patients with recent cancer history had a lower risk of composite MACE (sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) 0.83 [95% CI: 0.75-0.92]) and recurrent stroke (SHR 0.85 95% CI:0.75-0.96]) and a higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.67 [95% CI:1.47-1.91]). The risk of coronary heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, heart failure, and CVD-related death outcomes did not differ significantly between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

After incident ischaemic stroke, patients with recent cancer history have a lower risk of composite MACE and recurrent stroke outcomes but a higher risk of all-cause mortality when compared with patients without a prior history of cancer.

Safety and Outcome of Revascularization Treatment in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and COVID-19: The Global COVID-19 Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

COVID-19-related inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and coagulopathy may increase the bleeding risk and lower the efficacy of revascularization treatments in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We aimed to evaluate the safety and outcomes of revascularization treatments in patients with AIS and COVID-19.

METHODS

This was a retrospective multicenter cohort study of consecutive patients with AIS receiving intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and/or endovascular treatment (EVT) between March 2020 and June 2021 tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. With a doubly robust model combining propensity score weighting and multivariate regression, we studied the association of COVID-19 with intracranial bleeding complications and clinical outcomes. Subgroup analyses were performed according to treatment groups (IVT-only and EVT).

RESULTS

Of a total of 15,128 included patients from 105 centers, 853 (5.6%) were diagnosed with COVID-19; of those, 5,848 (38.7%) patients received IVT-only and 9,280 (61.3%) EVT (with or without IVT). Patients with COVID-19 had a higher rate of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) (adjusted OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.16-2.01), symptomatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SSAH) (OR 1.80; 95% CI 1.20-2.69), SICH and/or SSAH combined (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.23-1.99), 24-hour mortality (OR 2.47; 95% CI 1.58-3.86), and 3-month mortality (OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.52-2.33). Patients with COVID-19 also had an unfavorable shift in the distribution of the modified Rankin score at 3 months (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.26-1.60).

DISCUSSION

Patients with AIS and COVID-19 showed higher rates of intracranial bleeding complications and worse clinical outcomes after revascularization treatments than contemporaneous non-COVID-19 patients receiving treatment. Current available data do not allow direct conclusions to be drawn on the effectiveness of revascularization treatments in patients with COVID-19 or to establish different treatment recommendations in this subgroup of patients with ischemic stroke. Our findings can be taken into consideration for treatment decisions, patient monitoring, and establishing prognosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

The study was registered under ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04895462.

Serum S-100B adds incremental value for the prediction of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema after acute ischemic stroke

Background:

Early identification of patients developing symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema after acute ischemic stroke is essential for clinical decision-making. Astroglial protein S-100B is a marker of blood-brain barrier disruption, which plays an important role in the formation of intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema. In this study, we assessed the prognostic value of serum S-100B for the development of these complications.

Methods:

Serum S-100B levels were measured within 24 h from symptom onset in 1749 consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients from the prospective, observational, multicenter BIOSIGNAL cohort study (mean age 72.0 years, 58.3% male). To determine symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or symptomatic brain edema, follow-up neuroimaging was performed in all patients receiving reperfusion therapy or experiencing clinical worsening with an NIHSS increase of ⩾4.

Results:

Forty six patients (2.6%) developed symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and 90 patients (5.2%) developed symptomatic brain edema. After adjustment for established risk factors, log10S-100B levels remained independently associated with both symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (OR 3.41, 95% CI 1.7–6.9, p = 0.001) and symptomatic brain edema (OR 4.08, 95% CI 2.3–7.1, p < 0.001) in multivariable logistic regression models. Adding S-100B to the clinical prediction model increased the AUC from 0.72 to 0.75 ( p = 0.001) for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and from 0.78 to 0.81 ( p < 0.0001) for symptomatic brain edema.

Conclusions:

Serum S-100B levels measured within 24 h after symptom onset are independently associated with the development of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema in acute ischemic stroke patients. Thus, S-100B may be useful for early risk-stratification regarding stroke complications.

Sinus rhythm restoration and improved outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke and in-hospital paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

AIMS

It is unclear whether early cardiac rhythm control is beneficial in patients with acute ischemic stroke and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). We sought to investigate whether PAF self-termination and in-hospital sinus rhythm (SR) restoration is associated with improved outcome in ischemic stroke patients with PAF, compared to those with sustained atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with first-ever acute stroke and confirmed PAF during hospitalization were followed for up to 10 years after the index stroke or until death. We investigated the association of in-hospital self-terminated PAF and PAF conversion to SR compared to sustained AF with 10-year all-cause mortality, stroke recurrence, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of each outcome.

RESULTS

Among 297 ischemic stroke patients with in-hospital PAF detection, PAF was self-terminated in 87 (29.3%) patients, while 143 (48.1%) patients received antiarrhythmic medication in order to achieve PAF conversion to SR. During a median (Interquartile range, IQR) period of 28 (4-68) months, among patients with self-terminated PAF there were 13.5 deaths, 3.6 stroke recurrences, and 5.3 MACE per 100 patient-year while in patients who underwent medical PAF conversion there were 11.7 deaths, 4.6 stroke recurrences, and 5.8 MACE per 100 patient-year. Patients with sustained AF experienced 23.8 deaths, 8.7 stroke recurrences, and 13.9 MACE per 100 patient-years. In multivariable analysis, compared to patients with sustained AF, PAF self-termination was associated with significantly lower 10 years-risk of death (adjusted hazards ratio (adjHR): HR: 0.63, 95% Confidence interval: 0.40-0.96), stroke recurrence (adjHR: HR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.19-0.91), and MACE (adjHR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.23-0.81), while PAF medical conversion to SR was associated with lower 10 years-risk of death (adjHR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.44-0.97) and MACE (adjHR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33-0.95).

DISCUSSION

This study showed that in-hospital PAF self-termination was associated with lower risk of 10-year mortality, stroke recurrence, and MACE, potentially attributed to the lower burden of AF, whereas in-hospital PAF conversion to SR was associated with lower risk of 10-year mortality and MACE.

CONCLUSION

Early restoration of sinus rhythm is associated with improved survival and MACE in patients with acute ischemic stroke and PAF.