Causal Loop Diagrams for supporting Nature Based Solutions participatory design and performance assessment

Assessing the IUCN global standard as a framework for nature-based solutions in river flood management applications

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are actions that harness nature to help address major societal challenges. The assessment frameworks for NbS proposed in the literature differ in scope and intended use. In 2020, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) introduced their Global Standard for NbS as a framework that can be used by anyone working on different types of NbS. Since research on the applicability of the IUCN Standard remains limited, the aim of this paper is to analyse whether the IUCN Standard may be used as an overarching assessment framework for NbS in river flood management applications and to identify the main differences in content with other NbS-frameworks. This was achieved through a comparison with 29 assessment frameworks for NbS, that are applicable to physical interventions for riverine flood risk reduction. The comparisons showed that the IUCN Standard has the largest breadth in scope of application and may therefore be used as an overarching framework. In addition, we identified a distinction between frameworks for the assessment of project processes (process-oriented) and project results (results-oriented), where the IUCN Standard can be characterized as process-oriented. This implies that the IUCN Standard may be used to assess the processes (e.g. stakeholder engagement and adaptive management) of planned, ongoing or completed NbS projects for a wide variety of environmental contexts and societal challenges. This will help persuade policy makers to consider NbS as one of the solutions in flood management issues, next to or in combination with e.g. engineering solutions or changing land use. We also identified that, while the IUCN Standard is straightforward to use and incorporates stakeholder input, the environmental context specificity as well as guidance depth on resources for assessment can be improved.

Co-producing knowledge on the use of urban natural space: Participatory system dynamics modelling to understand a complex urban system

Decision-makers are increasingly asked to act differently in how they respond to complex urban challenges, recognising the value in bringing together and integrating cross-disciplinary, cross-sectoral knowledge to generate effective solutions. Participatory modelling allows to bring stakeholders together, enhance knowledge and understanding of a system, and identify the impacts of interventions to a given problem. This paper uses an interdisciplinary and systems approach to investigate a complex urban problem, using a participatory System Dynamics modelling process as an approach to facilitate learning and co-produce knowledge on the factors influencing the use of urban natural space. Stakeholders used a Systems Dynamics model and interface, as a tool to collectively identify pathways for improving the use of space and simulating their impacts. Under the lens of knowledge co-production, the paper reflects how such mechanisms can lead to the co-production of knowledge and social learning. The findings also contribute to identify ways of increasing the value of urban natural space focusing on urban areas undergoing physical and social transformation, such as the Thamesmead case study, London, UK.

Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision-Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process

Several modeling tools commonly used for supporting flood risk assessment and management are highly effective in representing physical phenomena, but provide a rather limited understanding of the multiple implications that flood risk and flood risk reduction measures have on highly complex systems such as urban areas. In fact, most of the available modeling tools do not fully account for this complexity-and related uncertainty-which heavily affects the interconnections between urban systems evolution and flood risk, ultimately resulting in an ineffective flood risk management. The present research proposes an innovative methodological framework to support decision-makers involved in an urban regeneration process at a planning/strategic level, accounting for the multi-dimensional implications of flood risk and of different flood risk management strategies. The adopted approach is based on the use of System Thinking principles and participatory System Dynamics modeling techniques, and pursues an integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects, namely Thamesmead (London), a formerly inhospitable marshland currently undergoing a process of urban regeneration, and perceived as being increasingly vulnerable to flooding. It represents an interesting opportunity for building a replicable modeling approach to integrate urban development dynamics with flood risk, ultimately supporting policy and decision-makers in identifying mitigation/prevention measures and understanding how they could help achieve multi-dimensional benefits (e.g., environmental, social and economic).

An action framework for the participatory assessment of nature-based solutions in cities

Impact assessment is a key step in mainstreaming urban nature-based solutions (NBS). Yet, it remains unclear if and how assessment frameworks influence urban planning, design and management. We contend that the potential of current NBS assessment frameworks is not fully exploited due to: (1) limited contextualisation of monitoring and assessment to place-specific contexts and (2) the depoliticisation of co-production. To address this, we present a practical five-step action framework to guide inclusive participation across different stages of monitoring and assessment of urban NBS, including indicator selection. Unlike previous approaches, applying selection criteria at the level of individual indicators, we also use criteria at the aggregate level of the indicator set. We conclude that participatory assessment contributes to mainstreaming urban NBS for sustainable and just cities, provided data is contextualised to local decision-making contexts and the process is designed to amplify marginalised voices.

Investigating flood resilience perceptions and supporting collective decision-making through fuzzy cognitive mapping

Improving flood resilience of communities requires a holistic understanding of risks and resilience options as well as the preferences and priorities of different stakeholders. Innovations in risk and resilience assessment have helped communities to identify gaps in their flood risk management strategy but selecting and implementing resilience solutions remains a big challenge for many decision-makers. In addition to traditional appraisals and cost-benefit assessments this also calls for a participatory process in which various stakeholders are encouraged to adopt a system-level approach in identifying interventions that can maximise a range of benefits and co-benefits. In this study, we investigate how a combination of modelling and measurement methods can help decision-makers with their flood resilience strategies. We apply a participatory system thinking approach combining Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) with a flood resilience measurement framework called Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC). We first investigate stakeholders' biases on flood resilience interventions, and then lead them through a system thinking exercise using FCM and FRMC to elicit mental models representing important aspects of flood resilience and their interrelation. These are then aggregated, representing the collective perceptions and knowledge of stakeholders, and used to identify the most beneficial resilience actions in terms of direct and indirect impacts on flood resilience. We apply this approach to the case of Lowestoft, a coastal town in England exposed to significant flood risk. Developed in close collaboration with the local authorities, the ambition is to support decision-making on flood resilience interventions. We find that this combination of methods enables system-level thinking and inclusive decision-making about flood resilience which can ultimately encourage transformative decisions on prioritization of actions and investments.

Constructed Wetlands as Nature-Based Solutions in the Post-COVID Agri-Food Supply Chain: Challenges and Opportunities

The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the interchangeable link between human and nature. The health and socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 are directly or indirectly linked to the natural environment and to the way that agri-food systems interact with nature. Although the pandemic continues to evolve and there are still many uncertainties, important issues about the future of the agri-food sector and the need for a sustainable and environmentally friendly reformation are beginning to arise in society. Nature-based Solutions (NbSs) encompass a broad range of practices that can be introduced in the agri-food supply chain and address multiple environmental challenges of the COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era while providing economic and societal benefits. In this perspective, the design and establishment of multifunctional constructed wetlands as NbSs opens a portfolio of eco-innovative options throughout the agri-food supply chain, offering a realistic and promising way towards the green regeneration of the post-COVID-19 economy and the welfare of society. The aim of this work is to explore the potential role of constructed wetlands as Nature-based Solutions in the agri-food supply chain of the forthcoming post-COVID-19 era. More specifically, this work aims to reveal application opportunities of constructed wetlands in the different segments of the agri-food supply chain, identify linkages with societal challenges and EU policies, and discuss their potential limitations, future challenges, and perspectives.

Understanding Urban Green Space Usage through Systems Thinking: A Case Study in Thamesmead, London

Urban green spaces provide environmental, economic, societal and health benefits to cities. However, policy and planning interventions aiming to improve usage have often led to unintended consequences, including, in some circumstances, an actual decline in usage. Previous research has identified factors influencing the use of urban green space, more often with a focus on the ‘quality’ and physical features of the space, rather than on the broader social factors. This study aims to unpack the complexity of factors that influence the use of urban green space through the application of Systems Thinking. A qualitative mixed-method approach integrating System Dynamics with rapid ethnography was adopted to elicit the views of local residents in Thamesmead, London. A thematic analysis of interviews was undertaken to systematically map the causal relations between factors, which were compared to wider stakeholders’ views. Our findings highlight the relevance of dynamics and social influences on the use of green space, which include social interactions and stewardship, health conditions, availability of services and amenities. These are factors that are underexplored in the literature and, sometimes, overlooked in urban green space policy by decision-makers. We infer that attendance of urban green spaces requires time, which may be occupied in other practices determined by local conditions and needs. Expanding the spatial and temporal boundaries of investigation, wider than debates on ‘quality’, should, in our view, increase the chances of identifying critical influences and foster an increased use of green space.

Stakeholders' perceptions of appropriate nature-based solutions in the urban context

The concept of nature-based solutions (NBSs) has become increasingly popular among urban policymakers and planners to help them tackle the urban challenges arising from urban expansion and climate change. Stakeholders' involvement is a fundamental step, and stakeholders' perceptions and preferences can affect the development of NBS projects. This study aims to identify stakeholders' perceptions of the most critical urban challenges, the priority interventions, the preferred NBSs and the benefits of the NBSs, and to identify the determinants of these perceptions. A survey was administered to assess stakeholders' perceptions and views on implementing NBSs in two Portuguese cities with distinct urban, geographical, and socio-economic contexts. A binary logistic regression model was used to understand the determinants of the likelihood of the stakeholders' answers. According to the stakeholders, climate change is one of the main concerns in the urban context. It is usually associated with the incidence of heatwaves and water scarcity. Additionally, stakeholders are concerned about the low quantity and poor management of green spaces (GSs). They believe that it will be necessary to increase the GS, to recover some degraded areas, and to increase mobility. The preferred NBSs were planting more urban trees, making green shaded areas, and rehabilitating riverbanks. The main expected benefits were benefits for leisure and relaxation, reductions in air temperature, purer air, and improvements in public health. The results showed mostly coherent connections between the main concerns/priorities of the stakeholders and the perceived NBS benefits; however, some stakeholders did not present coherent connections, indicating low awareness of the current policy for implementing NBSs to overcome existing and future urban challenges.

A new evaluation framework for nature-based solutions (NBS) projects based on the application of performance questions and indicators approach

One of the key features of nature-based solutions (NBSs) is their high effectiveness and economic and resource efficiency in solving problems compared to traditional grey interventions. These aspects, however, have so far attracted little attention in the literature but should be considered, as the evaluation of NBS projects before implementation provides an opportunity to use them as practical tools. This paper aims to present a new evaluation framework of NBS projects (at the stage of solution selection) based on the application of performance questions and the indicators approach. The framework consists of three main stages: (1) the formulation of the project aim(s), including the problem(s) to be solved, the scales of the expected effects and the thresholds to be achieved; (2) the elimination of solutions that do not fit the local conditions and setting requirements; and (3) the examination of the performance questions. To consider the whole spectrum of influencing factors, a systematic review was performed to indicate the main concepts related to the issue of NBS effectiveness, including (1) stakeholders' participation, (2) policy and management capability, (3) economic efficiency, (4) analysis of synergies and trade-offs, (5) adaptation to local conditions, (6) adequate spatial scale and (7) performance in the long term. In the current study around 130 indicators were identified for the evaluation of NBS projects. Regarding the impact on the state of knowledge, the present work contributes to the discussion on the conceptual sphere of NBS and its practical implementation by introducing multi-perspective standards and guidelines for the selection of possible NBS projects, and it deals with the complexity of synergies and the trade-offs between benefits.

Investigating dynamic interconnections between organic farming adoption and freshwater sustainability

As freshwater overexploitation in agriculture is rising, the application of alternative farming practices, particularly in water-scarce areas, is critical for the sustainability of the sector. Organic agriculture constitutes an opportunity for freshwater conservation, further improving biodiversity and human health. Notwithstanding literature efforts on the driving factors of organic farming and the impact of the latter on freshwater resources, a dynamic investigation of the interconnections between organic farming diffusion and freshwater sustainability is lacking. This research adopts a systems thinking perspective on the transition from conventional to organic agriculture. The developed system dynamics model explores the feedback mechanisms underpinning organic farming adoption and freshwater use by integrating, for the first time, the effects of: (i) farmers' water-related environmental and economic awareness patterns; and (ii) policy incentives and word of mouth about organic production benefits. The model is validated and tested based on a real-world wine grapes' case. The simulation outcomes highlight that the growers' intense environmental awareness could accelerate organic farming adoption, further promoting freshwater sustainability in case organic agriculture operations generate considerably low freshwater consumption coefficients. Overall, the proposed modelling framework is anticipated to act as a strategic tool for informing policy-makers about the system's state over time to plan potential interventions towards water-friendly organic farming.

Next steps for ecosystem service models: integrating complex interactions and beneficiaries

Accounting for ecosystem services (ES)—the ways in which society and people directly benefit from ecological processes and functions—is crucial for developing sustainable landscape management approaches that consider the interrelationship between people and nature. Previous research has produced models that estimate the provision of potential ES by landscapes to help inform policy and stakeholder decision-making. However, most modelling efforts do not consider the delivery of ES to specific human populations or communities, making it difficult to evaluate any possible human welfare implications from alternative land use planning scenarios. In this paper, we first explore the recent state of science of ES modelling from the perspective of ES provision and delivery to the people that benefit from them. Second, we propose the addition of some essential aspects of complexity using the classic social–ecological system framework, crucial for developing models to inform pragmatic decision-making. Our propositions are illustrated using simplified examples inspired by sea otter conservation in the seascapes of British Columbia. Integrating these concepts in future ES models should serve as a baseline for future management approaches that more adequately capture the important implications of landscape scenarios on human well-being.