The impact of weather condition and social activity on COVID-19 transmission in the United States

Natural and socio-environmental factors in the transmission of COVID-19: a comprehensive analysis of epidemiology and mechanisms

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

There are significant differences in the transmission rate and mortality rate of COVID-19 under environmental conditions such as seasons and climates. However, the impact of environmental factors on the role of the COVID-19 pandemic and the transmission mechanism of the SARS-CoV-2 is unclear. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of environmental factors on COVID-19 can provide innovative insights for global epidemic prevention and control policies and COVID-19 related research. This review summarizes the evidence of the impact of different natural and social environmental factors on the transmission of COVID-19 through a comprehensive analysis of epidemiology and mechanism research. This will provide innovative inspiration for global epidemic prevention and control policies and provide reference for similar infectious diseases that may emerge in the future.

RECENT FINDINGS

Evidence reveals mechanisms by which natural environmental factors influence the transmission of COVID-19, including (i) virus survival and transport, (ii) immune system damage, (iii) inflammation, oxidative stress, and cell death, and (iiii) increasing risk of complications. All of these measures appear to be effective in controlling the spread or mortality of COVID-19: (1) reducing air pollution levels, (2) rational use of ozone disinfection and medical ozone therapy, (3) rational exposure to sunlight, (4) scientific ventilation and maintenance of indoor temperature and humidity, (5) control of population density, and (6) control of population movement. Our review indicates that with the continuous mutation of SARS-CoV-2, high temperature, high humidity, low air pollution levels, and low population density more likely to slow down the spread of the virus.

Asymptomatic Children as a Missing Link in Preventing COVID-19 Transmission

BACKGROUND

Investigating the prevalence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in asymptomatic children who have been in close contact with symptomatic individuals is instrumental for refining public health approaches, protecting vulnerable populations, and mitigating the broader impact of the pandemic. Accordingly, this study aimed to evaluate the incidence of COVID-19 infection in asymptomatic children who had been in close contact with parents exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms. Study Design: A cross-sectional study.

METHODS

The present cross-sectional study was conducted on 175 asymptomatic children who had been in close contact with COVID-19 confirmed cases in Hamadan County from March 2021 to August 2021. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing was performed on all asymptomatic children who had been in close contact with an individual with COVID-19. Furthermore, multiple logistic regressions were conducted to determine the predictors of COVID-19 transmission from family members to children.

RESULTS

Out of the 175 children in close contact with index cases, 53 (30.29%) tested positive for COVID-19 through PCR. Regarding factors related to the index case, male cases (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=2.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-5.09, P=0.041), rural dwellers (AOR=3.22; 95% CI: 1.02-10.16, P=0.046), illiterate cases (AOR=8.45; 95% CI: 1.76-40.65, P=0.008), and cases presenting with nasal congestion symptoms (AOR=9.12; 95% CI: 2.22-37.40, P=0.002) were more prone to transmitting the virus to children who had close contact with them.

CONCLUSION

The findings of the present study suggested that asymptomatic COVID-19 infection in household contacts is significant in children who were in close contact with a COVID-19-positive patient. Therefore, it is crucial to continue to monitor this group closely.

Rain, rain, go away, come again another day: do climate variations enhance the spread of COVID-19?

The spread of infectious diseases was further promoted due to busy cities, increased travel, and climate change, which led to outbreaks, epidemics, and even pandemics. The world experienced the severity of the 125 nm virus called the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019. Many investigations revealed a strong correlation between humidity and temperature relative to the kinetics of the virus's spread into the hosts. This study aimed to solve the riddle of the correlation between environmental factors and COVID-19 by applying RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) with the designed research question. Five temperature and humidity-related themes were deduced via the review processes, namely 1) The link between solar activity and pandemic outbreaks, 2) Regional area, 3) Climate and weather, 4) Relationship between temperature and humidity, and 5) the Governmental disinfection actions and guidelines. A significant relationship between solar activities and pandemic outbreaks was reported throughout the review of past studies. The grand solar minima (1450-1830) and solar minima (1975-2020) coincided with the global pandemic. Meanwhile, the cooler, lower humidity, and low wind movement environment reported higher severity of cases. Moreover, COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases were higher in countries located within the Northern Hemisphere. The Blackbox of COVID-19 was revealed through the work conducted in this paper that the virus thrives in cooler and low-humidity environments, with emphasis on potential treatments and government measures relative to temperature and humidity. HIGHLIGHTS: • The coronavirus disease 2019 (COIVD-19) is spreading faster in low temperatures and humid area. • Weather and climate serve as environmental drivers in propagating COVID-19. • Solar radiation influences the spreading of COVID-19. • The correlation between weather and population as the factor in spreading of COVID-19.

Role of Trust, Risk Perception, and Perceived Benefit in COVID-19 Vaccination Intention of the Public

COVID-19 vaccination is an effective method for dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study proposed and validated a theoretical intention model for explaining the COVID-19 vaccination intention (CVI) of the public. The theoretical intention model incorporated trust in vaccines, two types of risk perception (risk perception of COVID-19 and risk perception of COVID-19 vaccination), and perceived benefit into a theory of planned behavior (TPB). Structural equation modeling was utilized to test the theoretical intention model with data collected from 816 Chinese adults in China. The results confirmed the crucial role of trust in vaccines, risk perception, and perceived benefit in shaping the CVI of the public. In addition, TPB was found to be applicable in a research context. The theoretical intention model accounted for 78.8% of the variance in CVI. Based on the findings, several practical recommendations for improving COVID-19 vaccination rates were discussed.

The complex interplay between weather, social activity, and COVID-19 in the US

Empirical studies on the impact of weather and policy interventions on Covid-19 infections have dedicated little attention to the mediation role of social activity. In this study, we combine mobile locations, weather, and COVID-19 data in a two-way fixed effects mediation model to estimate the impact of weather and policy interventions on the COVID-19 infection rate in the US before the availability of vaccines, disentangling their direct impact from the part of the effect that is mediated by the endogenous response of social activity. We show that, while temperature reduces viral infectiousness, it also increases the amount of time individuals spend out of home, which instead favours the spread of the virus. This second channel substantially attenuates the beneficial effect of temperature in curbing the spread of the virus, offsetting one-third of the potential seasonal fluctuations in the reproduction rate. The mediation role of social activity is particularly pronounced when viral incidence is low, and completely offsets the beneficial effect of temperature. Despite being significant predictors of social activity, wind speed and precipitation do not induce sufficient variation to affect infections. Our estimates also suggest that school closures and lockdowns are effective in reducing infections. We employ our estimates to quantify the seasonal variation in the reproduction rate stemming from weather seasonality in the US.

Assessment of natural ventilation strategy to decrease the risk of COVID 19 infection at a rural elementary school

Natural ventilation in low-budget elementary schools is the main focus to ensure the health and comfort of its occupants, specifically when looking at the global pandemic related to SARS-COV-2. This paper presents an experimental and novel study of natural ventilation in a public elementary school (Los Zumacales), with a particularly low economic budget. The study was carried out during the winter months of the Covid 19 pandemic. The school is located in the rural area of Castilla y León (North-Western Spain) far from high traffic roads. In this study, a methodology of measuring CO2 concentration was applied in nine classrooms in a school. The experimental study shows the level of natural ventilation in each classroom, expressed in Air Changes per Hour (ACH), using the Decay CO2 concentration method. The method is proven by comparing the experimental values of the obtained ACH with those determined by the most powerful methods to achieve appropriate ventilation levels. Thus, ensuring health protection protocol in rural schools, against the COVID 19 pandemic. Harvard guide and Spanish regulations (RITE), two widely recognized methods have been used together with the experimentally obtained standard by Rey et al. Only one classroom showed a value lower than 3 indicating poor ventilation. In this study, the degree of thermal comfort in the nine classrooms were also analyzed according to the EN15251 standard. An average indoor temperature of approximately 19 °C was obtained, and the relative humidity was stable and correct according to Spanish regulations. In addition, the risk of infection in each classroom was estimated following the international method recommended by the federation of European Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Associations (REHVA). The probability of infection in all the cases studied was less than 14%. Therefore, this study provides a strong response against infections illnesses, such as Covid 19, in educational buildings where economic budgets of their facilities are low in both, maintenance and investment.

The impact of built and socio-economic environment factors on Covid-19 transmission at the ZIP-code level in Florida

Most studies have explored the Covid-19 outbreak by mainly focusing on restrictive public policies, human health, and behaviors at the macro level. However, the impacts of built and socio-economic environments, accounting for spatial effects on the spread at the local levels, have not been thoroughly studied. In this study, the relationships between the spatial spread of the virus and various indicators of the built and socio-economic environments are investigated, using Florida ZIP-code data on accumulated cases before large-scale vaccination campaigns began in 2021. Spatial regression models are used to account for the spatial dependencies and interactions that are core factors in Covid-19 spread. This study reveals both the spillover dynamics of the coronavirus spread at the ZIP code level and the existence of spatial dependencies among the unobserved variables represented by the error term. In addition, the findings show a positive association between the expected number of Covid-19 cases and specific land uses, such as education facilities and retail densities. Finally, the study highlights critical socio-economic characteristics causing a substantial increase in Covid-19 spread. Such results could help policymakers, public health experts, and urban planners design strategies to mitigate the spread of future Covid-19-like diseases.

Is the virus-laden standing water change the transmission intensity of SARS-CoV-2 after precipitation? A framework for empirical studies

Understanding the relationship between precipitation and SARS-CoV-2 is significant for combating COVID-19 in the wet season. However, the causes for the variation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission intensity after precipitation is unclear. Starting from "the Zhengzhou event," we found that the virus-laden standing water formed after precipitation might trigger some additional routes for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and thus change the transmission intensity of SARS-CoV-2. Then, we developed an interdisciplinary framework to examine whether the health risk related to the virus-laden standing water needs to be a concern. The framework enables the comparison of the instant and lag effects of precipitation on the transmission intensity of SARS-CoV-2 between city clusters with different formation risks of the virus-laden standing water. Based on the city-level data of China between January 01, 2020, and December 31, 2021, we conducted an empirical study. The result showed that in the cities with a high formation risk of the virus-laden standing water, heavy rain increased the instant transmission intensity of SARS-CoV-2 by 6.2% (95%CI: 4.85-10.2%), while in the other cities, precipitation was uninfluential to SARS-CoV-2 transmission, revealing that the health risk of the virus-laden standing water should not be underestimated during the COVID-19 pandemic. To reduce the relevant risk, virus-laden water control and proper disinfection are feasible response strategies.

COVID-19 transmission in Africa: estimating the role of meteorological factors

Climate variables play a critical role in COVID-19’s spread. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the effect of average temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 in Africa's first four affected countries (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, and Ethiopia). As a result, policymakers should develop effective COVID-19 spread control strategies. For each country, using daily data of confirmed cases and weather variables from May 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, generalized linear models (Poisson regression) and general linear models were estimated. According to the findings, the rising average temperature causes COVID-19 daily new cases to increase in South Africa and Ethiopia while decreasing in Morocco and Tunisia. However, in Tunisia, the relative humidity and daily new cases of COVID-19 are positively correlated, while in the other three countries, they are negatively associated.

Biological Properties of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Epidemiological Impact and Clinical Consequences

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a virus that belongs to the coronavirus family and is the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As of May 2022, it had caused more than 500 million infections and more than 6 million deaths worldwide. Several vaccines have been produced and tested over the last two years. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, on the other hand, has mutated over time, resulting in genetic variation in the population of circulating variants during the COVID-19 pandemic. It has also shown immune-evading characteristics, suggesting that vaccinations against these variants could be potentially ineffective. The purpose of this review article is to investigate the key variants of concern (VOCs) and mutations of the virus driving the current pandemic, as well as to explore the transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in relation to epidemiological factors and to compare the virus's transmission rate to that of prior coronaviruses. We examined and provided key information on SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in this study, including their transmissibility, infectivity rate, disease severity, affinity for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, viral load, reproduction number, vaccination effectiveness, and vaccine breakthrough.

COVID-19 pandemic over 2020 (withlockdowns) and 2021 (with vaccinations): similar effects for seasonality and environmental factors

How is the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020 with an health policy of full lockdowns and in 2021 with a vast campaign of vaccinations? The present study confronts this question here by developing a comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic between April-September 2020 (based upon strong control measures) and April-September 2021 (focused on health policy of vaccinations) in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to experience in 2020 high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths and in 2021 Italy has a high share of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (>89% of population aged over 12 years in January 2022). Results suggest that over the period under study, the arithmetic mean of confirmed cases, hospitalizations of people and admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in 2020 and 2021 is significantly equal (p-value<0.01), except fatality rate. Results suggest in December 2021 lower hospitalizations, admissions to ICUs, and fatality rate of COVID-19 than December 2020, though confirmed cases and mortality rates are in 2021 higher than 2020, and likely converging trends in the first quarter of 2022. These findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic is driven by seasonality and environmental factors that reduce the negative effects in summer period, regardless control measures and/or vaccination campaigns. These findings here can be of benefit to design health policy responses of crisis management considering the growth of COVID-19 pandemic in winter months having reduced temperatures and low solar radiations ( COVID-19 has a behaviour of influenza-like illness). Hence, findings here suggest that strategies of prevention and control of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19 should be set up in summer months and fully implemented during low-solar-irradiation periods (autumn and winter period).