Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

Evaluation of 131I transfer in the environment based on the available measurements made in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

This study evaluates the 131I transfer from ground deposition to the human thyroid gland after the Chernobyl accident using measurements of 131I concentrations in 1,252 soil, 124 grass, and 136 cow's milk samples as well as 131I thyroid activity measured in 3,100 individuals included in the Belarusian-American cohort. The following parameters of an 131I environmental transfer model used to calculate thyroid doses were evaluated in this study: (i) the interception factor of 131I by pasture grass, which was described by a purely empirical equation, (ii) the removal rate of 131I from pasture grass due to weathering and growth dilution, estimated to be 0.0676 d-1 (half-life of 10.3 d), (iii) the removal rate of 131I from cow's milk, estimated to be 0.0686 d-1 (half-life of 10.1 d), and (iv) the transfer coefficient of 131I from feed to cow's milk, arithmetic mean ± standard deviation of (6.7 ± 8.7) × 10-3 d L-1 (median = 4.0 × 10-3 d L-1). The individual model-based and measurement-based 131I thyroid activities for the Belarusian-American cohort members were calculated using different starting points of 131I transfer in the chain 'ground deposition' → 'vegetation' → 'cow's milk' → 'human thyroid', i.e., the measured 131I concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk. De novo thyroid doses from 131I for the 3,100 cohort members were calculated in this study using measured 131I activity concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk and were compared with those estimated previously for the same individuals using model-based 131I activity concentrations. It was shown that the use of measured instead of model-based 131I concentrations, in general, did not improve the measurement-based thyroid dose estimates. This is likely to be because there was already a good generic data base for the parameters used in this assessment. This finding indicates that, although the measurements of environmental samples are essential to estimate the parameter values of the 131I transfer model, the individual measurements of 131I thyroid activity are the most valuable information for estimating individual thyroid doses.

Radioecological modeling of the 131I activity dynamics in different types of grass vegetation in the Chernobyl accident year

The dynamics of 137Cs and 131I radioactivity in the crude biomass of the grass fodder and food vegetation in Mazovia, Poland, in 1986, the year of the Chernobyl accident, has been estimated. Density of 137Cs and 131I in the soil and vegetation have been measured as a function of rainfall and biomass density as of the time most of the fallout took place. A method is described to convert the instrumental data for the radionuclide activity dynamics in vegetation of one type to vegetation of other types. The results of such data conversion from lawn grass to other types of food and fodder grass vegetation are presented. A method is described for adjusting the dynamics of the radionuclide transport through the food chain components (pasture grass, green meat – milk – human body) by normalizing successively the estimated data in each next component for the average value of the instrumental data ratio to the estimated data in the preceding component. The proposed methods are intended to generate a mutually consistent base of estimated and reconstructed instrumental data: 137Cs and 131I activity in the atmosphere – rainfall – 137Cs fallout density on terrain – specific activity of 131I in vegetation. Such radioecological database will provide for a longer reliability of the estimated 131I specific activity dynamics in milk and in human body and, in the long run, when estimating the thyroid internal exposure doses.

Radiation-Induced Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Is Associated with Improved Overall Survival but Not Thyroid Cancer-Specific Mortality or Disease-Free Survival

BACKGROUND

Radiation is a well-described risk factor for differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). Although the natural history of DTC following nuclear disasters and in healthcare workers with chronic radiation exposure (RE) has been described, little is known about DTC following short-term exposure to therapeutic medical radiation for benign disease. This study compares DTC morphology and outcomes in patients with and without a prior history of therapeutic external RE.

METHODS

A retrospective review was performed of patients with DTC treated at The University of Chicago between 1951 and 1987, with a median follow-up of 27 years (range 0.3-60 years). Patients were classified as either having (RE+) or not having (RE-) a history of therapeutic RE. Variables examined included sex, age at RE, dose of RE, indication for RE, DTC histology, and outcome. Morphology was determined by blinded retrospective review of all available histologic slides. Outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

Of 257 DTC patients, 165 (64%) were RE- and 92 (36%) were RE+, with males comprising a greater proportion of the RE+ group (43.5% vs. 27.3%; p = 0.01). A total of 94.2% of DTC cases were classic papillary cancers; histology did not differ between RE+ and RE- cohorts (p = 0.73). RE was associated with an increased median overall survival (OS; 43 years vs. 38 years; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.55 [confidence interval (CI) 0.34-0.89]; p = 0.01). Survival for males in the RE- group was significantly worse than it was for RE- females (HR = 1.78 [CI 1.05-3.03]; p = 0.03) or RE+ males (HR = 2.98 [CI 1.39-6.38]; p = 0.01). Recurrence did not differ between the RE+ and RE- groups (HR = 0.85 [CI 0.52-1.41]; p = 0.54), nor did DTC-specific mortality (HR = 0.54 [CI 0.21-1.37]; p = 0.20).

CONCLUSIONS

While DTC following RE has historically been considered a more aggressive variant than DTC in the absence of RE, the present data indicate that RE+ DTC is associated with better OS than RE- DTC, especially for males. Additionally, recent reports are confirmed of equivalent rates of thyroid cancer recurrence. These results warrant further investigation into the factors underlying this unexpected finding.

Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: a review of the environmental impacts

The environmental impacts of the nuclear accidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima are compared. In almost every respect, the consequences of the Chernobyl accident clearly exceeded those of the Fukushima accident. In both accidents, most of the radioactivity released was due to volatile radionuclides (noble gases, iodine, cesium, tellurium). However, the amount of refractory elements (including actinides) emitted in the course of the Chernobyl accident was approximately four orders of magnitude higher than during the Fukushima accident. For Chernobyl, a total release of 5,300 PBq (excluding noble gases) has been established as the most cited source term. For Fukushima, we estimated a total source term of 520 (340-800) PBq. In the course of the Fukushima accident, the majority of the radionuclides (more than 80%) was transported offshore and deposited in the Pacific Ocean. Monitoring campaigns after both accidents reveal that the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident was much greater than of the Fukushima accident. Both the highly contaminated areas and the evacuated areas are smaller around Fukushima and the projected health effects in Japan are significantly lower than after the Chernobyl accident. This is mainly due to the fact that food safety campaigns and evacuations worked quickly and efficiently after the Fukushima accident. In contrast to Chernobyl, no fatalities due to acute radiation effects occurred in Fukushima.

Transfer of 131I from Fukushima to the vegetation and milk in France

Iodine-131 and various other radionuclides were released into the atmosphere from the damaged Japanese reactors of Fukushima Dai-ichi from 12 to 22 March 2011. The contaminated air mass was detected in France after 24 March; samples of grass, vegetables, and milk have been analyzed for (131)I by the IRSN, considering the fact that few values of iodine-131 transfer parameters have been directly measured in situ, due to the radioactive decay of this isotope. Data are compared with calculated values according to the air iodine concentration. The apparent dry deposition velocity of iodine on grass is therefore estimated to range between 1 × 10(-3) and 5 × 10(-3) m s(-1) from site to site. In addition, the grass to milk transfer factors are 2.8 × 10(-2) and 3.6 × 10(-3) d L(-1) for goat's and cow's milk respectively. These parameters fit well with the current values usually considered for radioecological assessment.