Dynamic modelling of radionuclide uptake by marine biota: application to the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

Transfer of radionuclides through ecological systems: Lessons learned from 10 years of research within CERAD CoE

Norway's Centre of Excellence for Environmental Radioactivity (CERAD) research programme included studies on transfer of radionuclides in various ecosystems within the context of environmental risk assessment. This article provides highlights from 10 years of research within this topic and summarises lessons learnt from the process. The scope has been extensive, involving laboratory-based experiments, field studies and the implementation of transfer models quantifying radionuclide uptake directly from the surrounding environment and via food chains. Field studies have had a global span and have, inter alia, covered sites contaminated with radionuclides associated with particles, ranging from nanoparticles to fragments, due to nuclear accidents (e.g., Chornobyl and Fukushima accidents) along with sites having enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactive materials (e.g., Fen Complex in Norway and Taboshar in Tajikistan). Focus has been put on speciation and kinetics in determining radionuclide behavior and fate as well as on the influence of environmental factors that are potentially critical for the transfer of radionuclides. In particular, seasonal factors have been shown to greatly affect the dynamics of 137Cs and 90Sr bioaccumulation and loss in freshwater fish. The work has led to the collation of organism-specific (i) parameters important for kinetic models, i.e., uptake and depuration rates, and (ii) steady-state concentration ratios, CRs, where the use of stable analogue CRs as proxies for radionuclides has been brought into question. Dynamic models have been developed and applied for radiocaesium transfer to reindeer, radionuclide transfer in Arctic marine systems, transfer to fish via water and feed and commonly used agricultural food-chain transfer models applied in the context of nuclear emergency preparedness. The CERAD programme should contribute substantially to the scientific community's understanding of radionuclide transfer in environmental systems.

Impact of medical radionuclide discharges on people and the environment

We present a novel methodology to dynamically calculate dose rates to people and wildlife from hospital-released radionuclides reaching the environment through water treatment plants (WTPs), using the biokinetic model D-DAT for aquatic wildlife, applied to 18F, 123I, 131I, 153Sm, 99mTc and 201Tl. We have also developed a method to calculate doses to WTP workers and to farmers from agricultural practices. This proof-of-concept study simulates a generic source term of radionuclide levels in the Belgian Molse Nete River during the year 2018, chosen because the river flow was very low during that year, which constitutes a very conservative, bounding case. The dose rates to wildlife calculated for this hypothetical scenario under conservative assumptions, are well below the ERICA predicted no effects dose rate to wildlife of 10 μGy h-1. Human exposures are also very low, in most cases not exceeding 10 μSv y-1. This work identifies important data gaps and areas of uncertainty in the assessment of radiopharmaceutical effluents. The study, which is part of the EC project SINFONIA, paves the way for a dynamic screening assessment methodology able to perform consistently assessments of the impact of radiopharmaceuticals on people and wildlife. This is particularly relevant since discharges of radiopharmaceuticals in rivers are on the increase and it is necessary to explicitly demonstrate that people and the environment are adequately protected.

Comparison of methods for the radiological impact assessment of aquatic releases to the waters in the low countries

Accurate assessment of the radiological impact of liquid discharges on the marine environment is challenging despite all developments in recent years. The lack of consensus on this type of assessment manifests itself even stronger when transborder issues are expected, such as in the Low Countries. Belgium and the Netherlands operate nuclear power plants with discharges in the shared estuary of the Western Scheldt, therefore if there are safety concerns, information on both sides of the border must be coherent. This work provides a comparison of two computational methods used for assessment of aquatic releases in the Western Scheldt estuary and the adjacent North Sea.The work demonstrates a fair degree of consistency in modelling the uptake and fate of key anthropogenic radionuclides. Nevertheless, there are also considerable differences found in sediment and sea species with concentrations ranging by over two orders of magnitude in some cases. These explainable differences are methodological in nature, occurring in codes that underwent extensive validation during development. Therefore, the outcomes of this work clearly demonstrate the need to produce explicit guidance that is specifically tailored to the (inter)national water system of concern. This should not be limited to releases from nuclear power plants, but also include other nuclear applications. For all these reasons, more intensive collaboration and model harmonisation across borders is essential, signalling the direction for future investigations.

Ensuring robust radiological risk assessment for wildlife: insights from the International Atomic Energy Agency EMRAS and MODARIA programmes

In response to changing international recommendations and national requirements, a number of assessment approaches, and associated tools and models, have been developed over the last circa 20 years to assess radiological risk to wildlife. In this paper, we summarise international intercomparison exercises and scenario applications of available radiological assessment models for wildlife to aid future model users and those such as regulators who interpret assessments. Through our studies, we have assessed the fitness for purpose of various models and tools, identified the major sources of uncertainty and made recommendations on how the models and tools can best be applied to suit the purposes of an assessment. We conclude that the commonly used tiered or graded assessment tools are generally fit for purpose for conducting screening-level assessments of radiological impacts to wildlife. Radiological protection of the environment (or wildlife) is still a relatively new development within the overall system of radiation protection and environmental assessment approaches are continuing to develop. Given that some new/developing approaches differ considerably from the more established models/tools and there is an increasing international interest in developing approaches that support the effective regulation of multiple stressors (including radiation), we recommend the continuation of coordinated international programmes for model development, intercomparison and scenario testing.

Concentration factors and biological half-lives for the dynamic modelling of radionuclide transfers to marine biota in the English Channel

The biokinetics of radionuclide transfers to biota in the marine environment can be modelled using two parameters, specific to both each element/radionuclide and biota. The Concentration Factor (CF) reflects the ratio between the activity concentrations in the biota and the surrounding seawater in steady state. The biological half-life (tb_1/2) characterizes depuration kinetics for the radionuclide from the biota. While recommended CF values can be found in the literature, no guidelines actually exist for tb_1/2 values. We used available time-series activity concentration measurements in biota in the English Channel, where controlled amounts of liquid radioactive waste are discharged by the ORANO La Hague reprocessing plant. We calculated the corresponding time-series activity concentrations in seawater for each biota dataset using an extensively-validated hydrodynamic model. We derived the values of CF and tb_1/2 from seawater and biota data, to model radionuclide transfers between the two compartments. To assess the performance of the model, we analyzed the residual between observed and calculated levels in the biota. Datasets for macroalgae, mollusks, crustaceans and fish yielded parameters (CF, tb_1/2) for H-3 (as body water and as organically bound tritium), C-14, Sb-125, Cs-137, I-129, Mn-54, Co-60, Zn-65 and Ru-106. After discussing the results and qualifying the model's reliability, we proposed recommendations for CF and tb_1/2 for the purposes of the operational modelling of radionuclide transfers to biota in the marine environment.

Numerical modelling of 137Cs content in the pelagic species of the Japanese Pacific coast following the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident using a size-structured food-web model

As result of the great east Japan earthquake on March 2011 and the damages of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), huge amount of radionuclides, especially ¹³⁷Cs, were released to the Japanese Pacific coast. By consequence, several marine species have been contaminated by direct uptake of radionuclides from seawater or through feeding on contaminated preys. In the present study we propose a novel radioecological modelling approach aiming to simulate the radionuclides transfer to pelagic marine species by giving to the organism body-size a key role in the model. We applied the model to estimate the ¹³⁷Cs content in 14 commercially important species of the North-Western Pacific Ocean after the FDNPP accident. Firstly, we validated the model and evaluated its performance using various observed field data, and we demonstrated the importance of using such modelling approach in radioecological studies. Afterwards, we estimated some radioecological metrics, such as the maximum activity concentration, its corresponding time and the ecological half-life, which are important in assessment of the previous, current and future contamination levels of the studied species. Finally, we estimated the time duration required for each species to reach the pre-accident ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations. The results showed that the contamination levels in the planktivorous species have generally reached the pre-accident levels since about 5 years after the accident (since 2016). While in the case of the higher trophic level species, although the activity concentrations are much lower than the regulatory limit for radiocesium in seafood in Japan (100 Bq kg^-1), these species still require another 6–14 years (2018–2026) to reach the pre-accident levels.

An approach to identifying the relative importance of different radionuclides in ecological radiological risk assessment: Application to nuclear power plant releases

There is a need to prioritise the requirements for data to assess the radiological risk for fauna and flora, as inevitable large data gaps occur due to the large number of combinations of radionuclides and organisms for which doses need to be assessed. The potentially most important dose-forming radionuclide-pathways combinations need to be identified to optimize filling these gaps. Few attempts have been made to classify the importance of isotopes with regard to radiation protection of the environment. A hierarchical approach is described here for radionuclides that are potentially present in generic ecosystems (freshwater, marine or terrestrial) and is applied for scenarios considering ecologically relevant chronic exposure. In each ecosystem, the top ten radionuclides that may contribute to doses were identified using a qualitative Chronic Hazard Index. Including quantitative aspects by incorporating discharge quantities changed the priority list, and increased the relative importance of radionuclides contributing most to the authorized releases of nuclear facilities (¹⁴C and ³H followed by ⁶⁰C). The potentially most important dose-contributing radionuclides in the framework of environmental radiation protection under a chronic exposure situation included isotopes of about 20 elements. The five most important in order of decreasing importance were: carbon, hydrogen, caesium, cobalt and americium. Consideration of acute exposure situations was hampered by data gaps that were even greater than that for chronic exposure situations, so it was only possible to consider the feasibility of developing a consistent approach.

Marine radioecology after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident: Are we better positioned to understand the impact of radionuclides in marine ecosystems?

This paper focuses on how a community of researchers under the COMET (CO-ordination and iMplementation of a pan European projecT for radioecology) project has improved the capacity of marine radioecology to understand at the process level the behaviour of radionuclides in the marine environment, uptake by organisms and the resulting doses after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident occurred in 2011. We present new radioecological understanding of the processes involved, such as the interaction of waterborne radionuclides with suspended particles and sediments or the biological uptake and turnover of radionuclides, which have been better quantified and mathematically described. We demonstrate that biokinetic models can better represent radionuclide transfer to biota in non-equilibrium situations, bringing more realism to predictions, especially when combining physical, chemical and biological interactions that occur in such an open and dynamic environment as the ocean. As a result, we are readier now than we were before the FDNPP accident in terms of having models that can be applied to dynamic situations. The paper concludes with our vision for marine radioecology as a fundamental research discipline and we present a strategy for our discipline at the European and international levels. The lessons learned are presented along with their possible applicability to assess/reduce the environmental consequences of future accidents to the marine environment and guidance for future research, as well as to assure the sustainability of marine radioecology. This guidance necessarily reflects on why and where further research funding is needed, signalling the way for future investigations.

Marine ecological risk assessment methods for radiation accidents

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool that can be used to analyze potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts. With the rapid development of nuclear power plants in coastal areas around the world, the establishment of approaches and methodologies for marine ERA with a focus on radiation accidents is an urgent requirement for marine environmental management. In this study, the approaches and methodologies for ERA pertaining to marine radiation accidents (MRA) are discussed and summarized with applications in case studies, such as the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, and a hypothetical accident in Daya Bay, China. The concepts of ERA and Risk Degree of ERA on MRA are defined for the first time to optimize the ERA system. The results of case studies show that the ERA approach and methodology for MRA are scientifically sound and effective in both the early and late stage of MRAs along with classic ERA Approach and the ERICA Integrated Approach. The results can be useful in the decision-making processes and the risk management at the beginning of accident as well as the ecological restoration after the accident.

Dose assessment in environmental radiological protection: State of the art and perspectives

Exposure to radiation is a potential hazard to humans and the environment. The Fukushima accident reminded the world of the importance of a reliable risk management system that incorporates the dose received from radiation exposures. The dose to humans from exposure to radiation can be quantified using a well-defined system; its environmental equivalent, however, is still in a developmental state. Additionally, the results of several papers published over the last decade have been criticized because of poor dosimetry. Therefore, a workshop on environmental dosimetry was organized by the STAR (Strategy for Allied Radioecology) Network of Excellence to review the state of the art in environmental dosimetry and prioritize areas of methodological and guidance development. Herein, we report the key findings from that international workshop, summarise parameters that affect the dose animals and plants receive when exposed to radiation, and identify further research needs. Current dosimetry practices for determining environmental protection are based on simple screening dose assessments using knowledge of fundamental radiation physics, source-target geometry relationships, the influence of organism shape and size, and knowledge of how radionuclide distributions in the body and in the soil profile alter dose. In screening model calculations that estimate whole-body dose to biota the shapes of organisms are simply represented as ellipsoids, while recently developed complex voxel phantom models allow organ-specific dose estimates. We identified several research and guidance development priorities for dosimetry. For external exposures, the uncertainty in dose estimates due to spatially heterogeneous distributions of radionuclide contamination is currently being evaluated. Guidance is needed on the level of dosimetry that is required when screening benchmarks are exceeded and how to report exposure in dose-effect studies, including quantification of uncertainties. Further research is needed to establish whether and how dosimetry should account for differences in tissue physiology, organism life stages, seasonal variability (in ecology, physiology and radiation field), species life span, and the proportion of a population that is actually exposed. We contend that, although major advances have recently been made in environmental radiation protection, substantive improvements are required to reduce uncertainties and increase the reliability of environmental dosimetry.

Biokinetics of radiocesium depuration in marine fish inhabiting the vicinity of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant

Radiocesium (¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs) released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1FNPP) accident contaminated the fish inhabiting the port of 1FNPP. Radiocesium concentrations in some fishes, especially rockfish, have still remained at elevated levels, while concentrations in olive flounder have decreased in 2015 to the level which is close to the Japanese regulatory limit for seafood products (0.1 kBq kg-wet^-1). In this study a dynamic food chain transfer model was applied to reconstruct radiocesium levels in olive flounder residing around the port area. As a result, the observed ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in olive flounder collected from the port could be explained by the simulated values in the fish, using the seawater level records at the port entrance. The reconstructed maximum ^134+137Cs concentration in olive flounder inhabiting the port area was 72 kB kg-wet^-1 in July 2011 and the ecological half-life (EHL) was estimated as being 180 days during the period of 2014-2015. Short term simulation which assumed that the coastal water fish swam into the port during 1 month, demonstrated that the radiocesium level in the olive flounder may become equivalent to the depurated level in the fish which were initially contaminated. This result indicated that the increase of radiocesium levels in wandering fish is unlikely to change total radiocesium concentrations in the olive flounder. In this sense, the radiocesium levels in the olive flounder of the port area can be interpreted as being convergent in 2015, regardless of the differences in their contamination histories. On the other hand, the higher ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in fat greenling, compared to the olive flounder, can be attributed to a history of exposure to the contaminated seawater and food at the inner area of the port, such as the shallow draft quay and seawall area. As a result of the reconstructed initial higher radiocesium concentration, constrained by exposure history at the inner area of the port, the depurated radiocesium concentration in fat greenling is still likely to be greater than the regulatory level in the port area in 2015.

A tool for calculating concentration ratios from large environmental datasets

This paper presents a tool for calculating concentration ratios from a large and structured environmental dataset of radionuclide activity and metal concentrations. The tool has been developed in MS Excel™ and includes a simple user interface for setting up queries. The tool is capable of matching environmental media samples to biota samples based on user-defined spatial and temporal criteria to derive a representative estimate of the environmental exposure conditions of an organism and its accumulation. Some potential benefits and uses of the tool are discussed.

Impact of the Fukushima accident on marine biota, five years later

In a previous commentary written in 2011 in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident in Japan, I summarized what was then understood about the effects of accidental radioactive discharges to marine life and forecasted into the future how the marine environment would likely be affected. Since that time, several studies have been conducted on the impact of the accident on marine organisms, and radiation doses arising thereof. I developed a dynamic transfer model for studying the bioaccumulation of Fukushima radionuclides in marine biota and assessed the impact and likelihood of effects to marine life. In the present article, I highlight the lessons learned over the past 5 years. I address whether the environmental consequences in the marine environment are as significant as initially feared and, with respect to the current situation, what remains to be investigated as the radioactivity continues to spread in the marine environment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:654-658. © 2016 SETAC.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish

Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict (137)Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios.