Evaluation of the increase in model for end-stage liver disease (DeltaMELD) score over time as a prognostic predictor in patients with advanced cirrhosis: risk factor analysis and comparison with initial MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score

Long term impact of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation on hepatic morphology

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term morphologic changes occurring in the liver after TIPS creation with correlation with hepatic function to gain insight on the physiologic impact of TIPS on the liver.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients who underwent TIPS creation between 2005 and 2022 and had contrasted CT or MRI studies prior to and between 1 and 2 years post procedure. Strict exclusion criteria were applied to avoid confounding. Parenchymal volume and vessel measurements were assessed on the pre- and post-TIPS CT or MRI and MELD scores calculated.

RESULTS

Of 580 patients undergoing TIPS creation, 65 patients (mean age, 55 years; 36 males) had pre-TIPS and post-TIPS imaging meeting inclusion criteria at median 16.5 months. After TIPS, the mean MELD score increased (12.9 to 15.4; p = 0.008) and total liver volume decreased (1730 to 1432 mL; p < 0.001). However, the magnitude of volume change did not correlate with MELD change. Neither portosystemic gradient nor TIPS laterality correlated with total or lobar hepatic volume changes or MELD changes. The main portal vein diameter increased (15.0 to 18.7 mm; p < 0.001). Thrombosis of the hepatic vein used for TIPS creation resulted in a mean increase in MELD of +4.1 compared to -2.1 in patients who had a patent and normal hepatic vein (p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

Given lack of correlation between portosystemic gradient, hepatic atrophy, hepatic function, and TIPS laterality, the alterations in portal flow dynamics after TIPS may not be impactful to hepatic function. However, hepatic vein patency after TIPS correlated with improved hepatic function.

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) With Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) Functional Treatment Planning in Patients With Advanced Hepatic Cirrhosis

Purpose

We report on the feasibility and outcomes of liver stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) functional treatment planning in patients with Child-Pugh (CP) B/C cirrhosis.

Methods and Materials

Liver SPECT with 99mTc-sulfur colloid was coregistered to treatment planning computed tomography (CT) for the guided avoidance of functional hepatic parenchyma during SBRT. Functional liver volumes (FLVs) obtained from SPECT were compared with anatomic liver volumes defined on the planning CT. Radiation dose constraints were adapted exclusively to FLV. Local control, toxicity, and survival were reported with at least 6 months of radiographic follow-up. Pre- and posttransplant outcomes were analyzed in a subset of patients who completed SBRT as a bridge to liver transplant. Model of End-Stage Liver Disease was used to score hepatic function before and after SBRT completion.

Results

With a median follow-up of 32 months, 45 patients (58 lesions) with HCC and CP-B/C cirrhosis received SBRT to a median dose of 45 Gy (3-5 fractions). FLV loss (34%, P < .001) was observed in all patients, and the functional and anatomic liver volumes matched well in a control group of noncirrhotic/non-HCC patients. Despite marked functional parenchyma retraction, the amount of FLV on SPECT exposed to the threshold irradiation was significantly less than the CT liver volumes (P < .001) because of the optimized beam placement during dosimetry planning. Twenty-three patients (51%) successfully completed orthotopic liver transplant, with a median time to transplant of 9.2 months. With 91% in-field local control, the overall 2-year survival was 65% (90% after the orthotopic liver transplant), with no incidence of radiation-induced liver disease observed within 3 to 4 months or accelerated CP class migration from B to C within the first 6 months post-SBRT. Mean Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-Na score was not significantly elevated at 3-month intervals after SBRT completion.

Conclusions

Functional treatment planning with 99mTc sulfur colloid SPECT/CT allows identification and avoidance of functional hepatic parenchyma in patients with CP-B/C cirrhosis, leading to low toxicity and satisfactory transplant outcomes.

Dynamic evaluation based on acute-on-chronic liver failure predicts survival of patients after liver transplantation: a cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dynamic evaluation of critically ill patients is the key to predicting their outcomes. Most scores based on the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) utilize point-in-time assessment. This study mainly aimed to investigate the impact of dynamic clinical course change on post-liver transplantation (LT) survival.

METHODS

This study included 637 adults (overall cohort) with benign end-stage liver diseases. The authors compared the MELD scores and our ACLF-based dynamic evaluation scores. Patients enrolled or transplanted with ACLF-3 were defined as the ACLF-3 cohort ( n =158). The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. ΔMELD and ΔCLIF-OF (Chronic Liver Failure-Organ Failure) represented the respective dynamic changes in liver transplant function. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the curve. A Cox regression analysis identified independent risk factors for specific organ failure and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

Patients were grouped into three groups: the deterioration group (D), the stable group (S), and the improvement group (I). The deterioration group (ΔCLIF-OF ≥2) was more likely to receive national liver allocation ( P =0.012) but experienced longer cold ischemia time ( P =0.006) than other groups. The area under the curves for ΔCLIF-OF were 0.752 for the entire cohort and 0.767 for ACLF-3 cohorts, both superior to ΔMELD ( P <0.001 for both). Compared to the improvement group, the 1-year mortality hazard ratios (HR) of the deterioration group were 12.57 (6.72-23.48) for the overall cohort and 7.00 (3.73-13.09) for the ACLF-3 cohort. Extrahepatic organs subscore change (HR=1.783 (1.266-2.512) for neurologic; 1.653 (1.205-2.269) for circulation; 1.906 (1.324-2.743) for respiration; 1.473 (1.097-1.976) for renal) were key to transplantation outcomes in the ACLF-3 cohort. CLIF-OF at LT (HR=1.193), ΔCLIF-OF (HR=1.354), and cold ischemia time (HR=1.077) were independent risk factors of mortality for the overall cohort, while ΔCLIF-OF (HR=1.384) was the only independent risk factor for the ACLF-3 cohort. Non-ACLF-3 patients showed a higher survival rate than patients with ACLF-3 in all groups ( P =0.002 for I, P =0.005 for S, and P =0.001 for D).

CONCLUSION

This was the first ACLF-based dynamic evaluation study. ΔCLIF-OF was a more powerful predictor of post-LT mortality than ΔMELD. Extrahepatic organ failures were core risk factors for ACLF-3 patients. CLIF-OF at LT, ΔCLIF-OF, and cold ischemia time were independent risk factors for post-LT mortality. Patients with a worse baseline condition and a deteriorating clinical course had the worst prognosis. Dynamic evaluation was important in risk stratification and recipient selection.

Delta MELD as a predictor of early outcome in adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND/AIMS

An increased post-operative mortality risk has been reported among patients who undergo living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) with higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. In this study, we investigated the effect of MELD score reduction on post-operative outcomes in patients with a high MELD (≥20) score by pre-transplant management.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 386 LDLT cases, and patients were divided into low-MELD (<20, n=293) vs. high-MELD (≥20, n=93) groups according to their MELD score at the time of index hospitalization. Patients in the high-MELD group were managed specifically according to a treatment algorithm in an effort to decrease the MELD score. Patients in the high-MELD group were further divided into 2 subgroups: (1) responders (n=34) to pre-transplant treatment with subsequent reduction of the MELD score by a minimum of 1 point vs. (2) non-responders (n=59), whose MELD score remained unchanged or further increased on the day of LDLT. Responders vs. non-responders were compared according to etiology, demographics, and survival.

Predictors of Mortality During Initial Liver Transplant Hospitalization and Investigation of Causes of Death

Background

Liver transplant (LT) remains a life-saving procedure with a high mortality rate. The present study investigated the causes of death and sought to identify predictive factors of mortality during the initial LT hospitalization.

Material/Methods

We retrieved data on first-time adult recipients who underwent LT between November 2017 and October 2019 receiving grafts from donation after citizen’s death. The risk factors for mortality during the initial LT hospitalization were confirmed by univariate analysis. We also analyzed the causes of death.

Results

We enrolled 103 recipients, including 86 males and 17 females, with a mean age of 47.7 years. Thirty-eight (36.9%) recipients were labeled as non-cholestatic cirrhosis-related indications. Approximately 8% of all recipients had diabetes prior to LT. Induction therapy was used in 11 (10.7%) recipients, along with maintenance therapy. The median model for end-stage liver disease score at LT was 32.4 (21.4–38.4). The in-hospital mortality rate of LT recipients was 6.8% (7/103), and infections were responsible for most of the deaths (6/7). The 1 remaining death resulted from primary graft failure. Univariate analysis showed recipients with postoperative pneumonia (p<0.05), acute hepatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) stay ≥7 days (both p<0.01), postoperative bacteremia, creatinine on day 3 after LT>2 mg/dL, and alanine transaminase on day 1 after LT >1800 μmol/L (all P<0.001) were much more likely to die.

Conclusions

In-hospital mortality of LT recipients was high, due in large part to infections. Acute hepatic necrosis, prolonged post-transplant ICU stays, certain types of postoperative infections, and postoperative liver and kidney dysfunction were potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality of LT recipients.

A Comprehensive Review of Outcome Predictors in Low MELD Patients

Risk scoring for patients with cirrhosis has evolved greatly over the past several decades. However, patients with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium scores still suffer from liver-related morbidity and mortality. Unfortunately, it is not clear which of these low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score patients would benefit from earlier consideration of liver transplantation. This article reviews the literature of risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis, identifies which patients may benefit from earlier interventions, such as transplantation, and proposes directions for future research.

Factors associated with improvement in MELD score after antiviral treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Improvement in Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score during antiviral treatment is associated with reduced hepatic decompensation and death in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis. We aimed to identify factors associated with transplant-free survival and on-treatment MELD score improvement.

METHODS

We identified patients with CHB-related cirrhosis and MELD score ≥ 15 at the start of entecavir and/or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate treatment between 2005 and 2017. The primary endpoint was transplant-free survival at month 6. The secondary endpoints at month 6 were transplant-free survival with > 5-point improvement in MELD score and transplant-free survival with MELD score < 15.

RESULTS

Of 999 cirrhotic CHB patients, 605 (60.6%) achieved transplant-free survival at month 6. Proportion of transplant-free survival at month 6 stabilized at 10% in patients with high MELD. Patients who achieved transplant-free survival at month 6 were younger, had lower MELD score, lower alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and higher albumin at baseline. Of 605 patients with transplant-free survival, 276 (45.6%) achieved > 5-point improvement in MELD score; 183 (30.2%) had 1-point to 5-point improvement in MELD score; 146 (24.1%) had no improvement or a worsened MELD score. Also, 321 (53.1%) patients with transplant-free survival had a MELD score < 15 at month 6.

CONCLUSION

On top of lower MELD score, patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who are younger, have higher albumin, and lower ALT are more likely to achieve transplant-free survival after 6 months of antiviral treatment.

Red Cell Distribution Width as a Predictor of Malignancy in Patients Who Underwent Upper Gastrointestinal System Endoscopy

Introduction

Red cell distribution width (RDW) has predictive properties in different benign and malignant diseases.

Aim

Our aim was to evaluate the predictive value of RDW for malignant gastric lesions by upper gastrointestinal screening.

Materials and Methods

Data of 91 male patients (Group A) who underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and subsequent surgery for gastric malignancy and age-matched 91 healthy male patients (Group B) with benign disorders were reviewed in this retrospective cohort study. The pathology reports, laboratory parameters, and demographics of the patients were recorded for comparison. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted for RDW, and a threshold for prediction of malignancy was calculated.

Results

The average age of the patients with gastric cancer was 62 (interquartile range [IQR]: 53-70) years. The difference in RDW levels between Group A and Group B was found to be significant: 14.40% (IQR: 13.40-16.40) versus 13.10% (IQR: 12.55-13.50) for the malignant and benign groups, respectively, P = 0.000. The area under the curve was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-0.86), P = 0.000. For the threshold of 13.45%, the positive predictive value (PPV) for malignancy was found to be 69.15 (95% CI: 61.77-75.67) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 70.45 (95% CI: 62.60-77.26).

Conclusion

RDW was found to have a PPV for malignancy in nearly two-thirds of the patients and had a similar NPV.

Use of rapid Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) increases for liver transplant registrant prioritization after MELD-Na and Share 35, an evaluation using data from the United Network for Organ Sharing

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been successfully used to prioritize patients on the United States liver transplant waiting list since its adoption in 2002. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)/Organ Procurement Transplantation Network (OPTN) allocation policy has evolved over the years, and notable recent changes include Share 35, inclusion of serum sodium in the MELD score, and a ‘delay and cap’ policy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We explored the potential of a registrant’s change in 30-day MELD scores (ΔMELD₃₀) to improve allocation both before and after these policy changes. Current MELD and ΔMELD₃₀ were evaluated using cause-specific hazards models for waitlist dropout based on US liver transplant registrants added to the waitlist between 06/30/2003 and 6/30/2013. Two composite scores were constructed and then evaluated on UNOS data spanning the current policy era (01/02/2016 to 09/07/2018). Predictive accuracy was evaluated using the C-index for model discrimination and by comparing observed and predicted waitlist dropout probabilities for model calibration. After the change to MELD-Na, increased dropout associated with ΔMELD₃₀ jumps is no longer evident at MELD scores below 30. However, the adoption of Share 35 has potentially resulted in discrepancies in waitlist dropout for patients with sharp MELD increases at higher MELD scores. Use of the ΔMELD₃₀ to add additional points or serve as a potential tiebreaker for patients with rapid deterioration may extend the benefit of Share 35 to better include those in most critical need.

Safety profile of autologous macrophage therapy for liver cirrhosis

Therapies to reduce liver fibrosis and stimulate organ regeneration are urgently needed. We conducted a first-in-human, phase 1 dose-escalation trial of autologous macrophage therapy in nine adults with cirrhosis and a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score of 10-16 (ISRCTN 10368050). Groups of three participants received a single peripheral infusion of 10⁷, 10⁸ or up to 10⁹ cells. Leukapheresis and macrophage infusion were well tolerated with no transfusion reactions, dose-limiting toxicities or macrophage activation syndrome. All participants were alive and transplant-free at one year, with only one clinical event recorded, the occurrence of minimal ascites. The primary outcomes of safety and feasibility were met. This study informs and provides a rationale for efficacy studies in cirrhosis and other fibrotic diseases.

Intra arterial treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: Comparison of MELD score variations between radio-embolization and chemo-embolization

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to assess liver function deterioration, as assessed using the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score variations, following transarterial chemo-embolization (TACE) versus selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) in patients with unresectable unilobar hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated all patients who underwent a single conventional TACE or SIRT procedure in our department from May 2013 to May 2018 for unilobar unresectable HCC. A total of 86 patients (76 men, 20 women; mean age, 65.5 years) were included. There were 63 patients in the TACE group [56 men, 7 women; mean age, 65.1±9.6 (SD) years] and 23 patients in the SIRT group [20 men, 3 women; mean age, 70±9.2 (SD) years]. Delta MELD, defined as post treatment minus pre-treatment MELD score, was considered for liver function deterioration and compared between patients who underwent single lobar treatment of SIRT versus TACE.

RESULTS

Patients in SIRT group had significant higher tumor burden, alpha-fetoprotein serum level, and rates of macroscopic vessel invasion. Mean pre-treatment MELD scores did not differ between TACE [mean, 8.41±1.71 (SD); range: 7.24-9.24] and SIRT groups [mean, 8.36±1.74 (SD); range: 7.07-9.21] (P=0.896) as well as Child-Pugh class and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade distribution. However, following treatment, mean DeltaMELD was greater in TACE group (mean, 0.83±1.83 [SD]; range: -0.30--1.31) than in SIRT group (mean, -0.13±1.06 [SD]; range: -0.49-0.32) (P=0.021). At multivariate analysis, SIRT treatment was independently associated with a lower DeltaMELD score than TACE (R=-0.955 [-1.68; -0.406]; P=0.017;).

CONCLUSION

Whereas performed in patients with higher tumor burden, SIRT resulted in lower degrees of liver function worsening as assessed using MELD score variations.

Pre-Operative Delta-MELD is an Independent Predictor of Higher Mortality following Liver Transplantation

Clinical decompensation immediately prior to liver transplantation may affect post-liver transplant (LT) outcomes. Using the serial Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores recorded in the United Network for Organ Sharing national registry (2010-2017), we analyzed post-LT mortality among adult LT recipients based on the degree of fluctuation in MELD score during the 30-day period prior to LT surgery. Delta-MELD (D-MELD) was defined as recipient MELD score at LT minus lowest MELD score within the preceding 30 days. Impact of D-MELD as a continuous and categorical variable (D-MELD 0-4, 5-10, >10) on early, 30-day post-LT mortality was assessed. Overall, a total of 12,785 LT recipients were analyzed, of which 8,862 (67.9%) had a pre-operative D-MELD 0-4; 2,574 (20.1%) with a D-MELD 5-10; and 1,529 (12.0%) with a D-MELD > 10. One-point incremental increase in pre-operative D-MELD (adjusted HR, 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10) was associated with higher 30-day post-LT mortality. Moreover, pre-operative D-MELD > 10 was associated with nearly a two-fold increased risk for 30-day post-LT mortality (adjusted HR, 1.89, 95% CI: 1.30-2.77) compared to D-MELD 0-4. The increased risk of pre-LT mortality associated with severity of clinical decompensation assessed by the magnitude of pre-operative D-MELD persists in the early post-LT period.

A mathematical model to describe survival among liver recipients from deceased donors with risk of transmitting infectious encephalitis pathogens

BACKGROUND

Between 2002 and 2013, the organs of 13 deceased donors with infectious encephalitis were transplanted, causing infections in 23 recipients. As a consequence, organs from donors showing symptoms of encephalitis (increased probability of infectious encephalitis (IPIE) organs) might be declined. We had previously characterized the risk of IPIE organs using data available to most transplant teams and not requiring special diagnostic tests. If the probability of infection is low, the benefits of a transplant from a donor with suspected infectious encephalitis might outweigh the risk and could be lifesaving for some transplant candidates.

METHODS

Using organ transplant data and Cox Proportional Hazards models, we determined liver donor and recipient characteristics predictive of post-transplant or waitlist survival and generated 5-year survival probability curves. We also calculated expected waiting times for an organ offer based on transplant candidate characteristics. Using a limited set of actual cases of infectious encephalitis transmission via transplant, we estimated post-transplant survival curves given an organ from an IPIE donor.

RESULTS

54% (1256) of patients registered from 2002-2006 who died or were removed from the waiting list because of deteriorated condition within 1 year could have had an at least marginal estimated benefit by accepting an IPIE liver with some probability of infection, with the odds increasing to 86% of patients if the probability of infection was low (5% or less). Additionally, 54% (1252) were removed from the waiting list prior to their estimated waiting time for a non-IPIE liver and could have benefited from an IPIE liver.

CONCLUSION

Improved allocation and utilization of IPIE livers could be achieved by evaluating the patient-specific trade-offs between (a) accepting an IPIE liver and (b) remaining on the waitlist and accepting a non-IPIE liver after the estimated waiting time.

A Dynamic Model for Predicting Outcome in Patients with HBV Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Accurately predicting the prognosis of individual patient is crucial in the management of ACLF. We aimed to establish a specific prognostic model for HBV-related ACLF patients treated with nucleoside analog (NA).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively collected 205 ACLF cases diagnosed according to the APASL criteria. A dynamic prognostic model based on APASL criteria was established and validated. To demonstrate that the model is also applicable to those within EASL criteria, we divided the patients into two groups: met APASL criteria only (group A, n = 123); met both APASL and EASL criteria (group B, n = 82). Its prognostic accuracy was also compared with chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score in group B.

RESULTS

The model is: R = 0.94 x Bilirubin + 0.53 x evolution of Bilirubin - 0.45 x PT-A - 0.22 x evolution in PT-A -0.1 x PLT + 10 x anti-HBe. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the model for predicting 90-day mortality was 0.86, which was significantly higher than that of model for end stage liver disease(MELD), MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, ΔMELD (7d) and ΔMELD-Na (7d), ΔCLIF- SOFA(7d) (all p &lt; 0.01). The AUC of our model in the validation group was 0.79 which was superior to MELD (0.45) CLIF-SOFA (0.53) score in group B patients (p &lt; 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the model was superior to the conventional methods in predicting the outcomes of patients with HBV related ACLF treated with NA. It is the first description of a novel prognostic model using consecutive data in patients with HBV-induced acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) treated by nucleoside analogs.

Correlation and prognostic accuracy between noninvasive liver fibrosismarkers and portal pressure in cirrhosis: Role of ALBI score

BACKGROUND

The role of noninvasive liver fibrosis markers which were developed to evaluate the severity of chronic liver disease remains unclear in cirrhosis.

AIMS

To evaluate the correlation between noninvasive markers and hemodynamic parameters and their prognostic performance in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

A total of 242 cirrhotic patients undergoing hemodynamic study were analyzed. The correlations between noninvasive models, including FIB-4, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, cirrhosis discriminant score, Lok index, Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score and hemodynamic parameters were investigated, along with their predictive accuracy for short- and long-term survival.

RESULTS

There was a significant correlation between all noninvasive markers and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), and ALBI score had the best correlation (r = 0.307, p<0.001). For the prediction of 3-month and 6-month mortality, serum sodium (sNa) levels had the highest area under curve (AUC; 0.799 and 0.818, respectively) among all parameters, and ALBI score showed the best performance (AUC = 0.691 and 0.740, respectively) compared with other 5 noninvasive models. Of 159 patients with low MELD scores (<14), high ALBI score (>-1.4) and low sNa (<135 mmol/L) predicted early mortality. In the Cox multivariate model, ALBI, MELD, HVPG and sNa were independent predictors of long-term survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Among noninvasive markers, ALBI score is best correlated with HVPG and associated with short-term outcome in cirrhotic patients. A high ALBI score and low sNa identify high-risk patients with low MELD scores. High MELD, HVPG, ALBI and low sNa levels are independent predictors of survival. Independent studies are required to confirm our findings.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Sodium Velocity Predicts Overall Survival in Nonmetastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The significance of short-term changes in model for end-stage liver disease and Sodium (MELD-Na) following hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis is unknown. In this report, we explore the value of the rate of short-term changes in MELD-Na as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with nonmetastatic HCC.

METHODS

We reviewed a cohort of patients diagnosed with nonmetastatic HCC at our institution between 2001 and 2011. We evaluated potential predictors of overall survival, including baseline MELD-Na and the change in MELD-Na over 90 days. We explored survival times of cohorts grouped by baseline MELD-Na and the change in MELD-Na.

RESULTS

182 patients met eligibility criteria. With a median follow-up of 21 months for surviving patients, 110 deaths were observed (60%). Median MELD-Na at the time of diagnosis was 9.7 (IQR 7.5 to 13.9). The median changes in percentage of MELD-Na over 90 days were an increase of 9% (IQR -4% to 55%). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling demonstrated that both baseline MELD-Na (HR=1.07 per unit increase, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.11, p<0.001) and changes in MELD-Na exceeding 40% (HR=3.69, 95% CI 2.39 to 5.69, p<0.001) were independently associated with increased mortality risk. Median survival among patients whose changes in MELD-Na were greater than 40% was 4.5 months, and median survival among the 131 other patients was 25.8 months (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a subset of HCC patients who have extremely poor prognosis by incorporating the rate of short-term change in MELD-Na to baseline MELD-Na score.

On-Treatment Improvement of MELD Score Reduces Death and Hepatic Events in Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Antiviral treatment modifies the natural history of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis as reflected by improving Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score over time. We evaluated the impact of on-treatment change of MELD score on clinical outcomes in patients with CHB-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

Cirrhotic CHB patients who received entecavir and/or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for at least 6 months in Hong Kong between 2005 and 2016 were identified. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatic events including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, and liver transplantation.

RESULTS

We identified 1743 cirrhotic CHB patients. Their mean MELD score decreased from 12.3 ± 5.5 at baseline to 11.0 ± 4.7 at month 6. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.9 (1.9-6.0) years, 290 (16.6%) patients died; 201 (11.5%) developed HCC. Among 1140 patients without prior hepatic events, 150 (13.2%) developed hepatic events. Among 464 patients with baseline MELD score ≥15, the 6-year cumulative mortality was 72.8, 36.7, and 23.1% for unchanged or increased MELD score, 1-5 point improvement in MELD score, and >5 point improvement in MELD score at month 6, respectively (log-rank test, P < 0.001); the corresponding 6-year cumulative incidence of hepatic events was 52.7, 30.5, and 23.9% in the three subgroups (Gray's test, P = 0.004). Patients with MELD score <15 at month 6 had lower risk of mortality and hepatic events (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

On-treatment improvement of MELD score correlates with reduced risk of mortality and hepatic events in cirrhotic CHB patients.

Clinical performance of stem cell therapy in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Stem cell therapy has been applied in the treatment of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, its clinical efficiency is still debatable. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the clinical efficiency of stem cell therapy in the treatment of ACLF.

METHODS

The Cochrane Library, OVID, EMBASE, and PUBMED were searched to December 2017. Both randomized and non-randomized studies, assessing stem cell therapy in patients with ACLF, were included. The outcome measures were total bilirubin (TBIL), alanine transaminase (ALT), international normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB), and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The quality of evidence was assessed by GRADEpro.

RESULTS

Four randomized controlled trials and six non-randomized controlled trials were included. The TBIL levels significantly decreased at 1-, 3-, 12-month after the stem cell therapy (p = 0.0008; p = 0.04; p = 0.007). The ALT levels decreased significantly compared with the control group in the short-term (p < 0.00001). There was no obvious change in the INR level compared with the control groups (p = 0.64). The ALB levels increased markedly as compared with the control groups (p < 0.0001). The significant difference can be found in MELD score between stem cell therapy and control groups (p = 0.008). Further subgroup analysis for 3-month clinical performance according to the stem cell types have also been performed.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that the clinical outcomes of stem cell therapy were satisfied in patients with ACLF in the short-term. MSCs may be better than BM-MNCs in the stem cells transplantation of ACLF. However, more attention should focus on clinical trials in large-volume centers.

Liver disease and heart failure: Back and forth

In their clinical practice, physicians can face heart diseases (chronic or acute heart failure) affecting the liver and liver diseases affecting the heart. Systemic diseases can also affect both heart and liver. Therefore, it is crucial in clinical practice to identify complex interactions between heart and liver, in order to provide the best treatment for both. In this review, we sought to summarize principal evidence explaining the mechanisms and supporting the existence of this complicate cross-talk between heart and liver. Hepatic involvement after heart failure, its pathophysiology, clinical presentation (congestive and ischemic hepatopathy), laboratory and echocardiographic prognostic markers are discussed; likewise, hepatic diseases influencing cardiac function (cirrhotic cardiomyopathy). Several clinical conditions (congenital, metabolic and infectious causes) possibly affecting simultaneously liver and heart have been also discussed. Cardiovascular drug therapy may present important side effects on the liver and hepato-biliary drug therapy on heart and vessels; post-transplantation immunosuppressive drugs may show reciprocal cardio-hepatotoxicity. A heart-liver axis is drafted by inflammatory reactants from the heart and the liver, and liver acts a source of energy substrates for the heart.

Utility of post-liver transplantation MELD and delta MELD in predicting early and late mortality

INTRODUCTION

The performance of early post-liver transplantation (post-LT) model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) or even its dynamic changes over time (ΔMELD) in predicting the mortality after LT is still controversial.

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of absolute and ΔMELD calculated at days 7 and 30 after LT to predict 1- and 5-year mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data of 209 consecutive patients who underwent LT in two centers were reviewed. Patients who received LT for hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded, as well as those who did not survive for at least 1 month. MELD and [INCREMENT]MELD were calculated for each patient at 7 and 30 days after LT.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-six patients were included, mostly male [104 (66.7%)] with a mean age of 51.9±8.8 years. The main indications for transplantation were decompensated hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhosis [138 (88.5%)] and hepatitis C and B virus co-infection [10 (6.4%)]. Grafts were obtained from 104 living donors and 52 deceased donors. Survival at 1 and 5 years was 89.7 and 85.9%, respectively, with a mean survival of 52.3±1.5 months. In univariate analysis, both absolute and ΔMELD at postoperative days 7 and 30 significantly predicted 1- and 5-year post-LT mortality. In multivariate analysis, MELD at postoperative day 30 was significantly associated with 1- (odds ratio: 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.14-1.35, P<0.0001) and 5-year mortality (odds ratio: 1.23, 95% confidence interval: 1.14-1.33, P<0.0001). The area under the curve for MELD at 30 days post-LT in the prediction of mortality was 0.823 (P=0.01) at 1 year and 0.812 (P<0.001) at 5 years. A cutoff of post-LT day 30 MELD less than 10 could predict mortality with a sensitivity and specificity of 90 and 68.1% at 1 year and 81.3 and 69.7% at 5 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Failure of the MELD score to decline over the first postoperative month to less than 10 is a significant predictor of both early and late post-LT mortality.

A novel dynamic model for predicting outcome in patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Aim

It is challenging to predict the outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through existing prognostic models. Our aim was to establish a novel dynamic model to improve the predictive efficiency of 30-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Methods

305 patients who were diagnosed as HBV-ACLF (derivation cohort, n=211; validation cohort, n=94) were included in this study. The HBV-ACLF dynamic (HBV-ACLFD) model was constructed based on the daily levels of predictive variables in 7 days after diagnosis combined with baseline risk factors by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The HBV-ACLFD model was compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and MELD within corporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na) score by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC).

Results

The HBV-ACLFD model demonstrated excellent discrimination with AUROC of 0.848 in the derivation cohort and of 0.813 in the validation cohort (p=0.620). The performance of the HBV-ACLFD model appeared to be superior to MELD score, MELD-Na score and CTP score (P<0.0001).

Conclusion

The HBV-ACLFD model can accurately predict 30-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF, which is helpful to select appropriate clinical procedures, so as to relieve the social and economic burden.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Score: The Evolution in the Prioritization of Liver Transplantation

The adoption of the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score as surrogate marker of liver disease severity has been the greatest change in liver allocation. Since its implementation, waiting time has lost significance. The MELD score calculation was later modified to reflect the contribution of hyponatremia in the estimation of mortality risk. However, the MELD score does not capture accurately the risk of mortality of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore the arbitrary assignment of MELD points has been used for HCC patients. The current allocation system still prioritizes transplantation in HCC patients.

Usefulness of albumin-bilirubin grade for evaluation of long-term prognosis for hepatitis B-related cirrhosis

Long-term prognosis varies widely among patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver cirrhosis. Our study aimed to investigate the applicability of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores to the long-term prognosis prediction of HBV-related cirrhosis. Patients diagnosed with HBV-associated cirrhosis from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2010 and December 2015 were enrolled in this study. The patients were followed up every 3 months. The prognostic performance of ALBI in long-term outcome prediction for HBV-related cirrhosis was compared with Child-Pugh and MELD scores using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tdROC) and decision curve analysis. A total of 806 patients were included in our study with 275 (34.1%) deceased during the follow-up. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that ALBI grade was an independent predictor associated with mortality. The tdROC analysis showed that ALBI score (0.787, 0.830 and 0.833) was superior to MELD (0.693, P=.003; 0.717, P<.001; 0.744, P<.001) and Child-Pugh score (0.641, P<.001; 0.649, P<.001; 0.657, P<.001) for predicting 1-year, 2-year and 3-year mortality. Additionally, decision curves also got the similar results. In addition, patients with lower ALBI score had a longer life expectancy, even among patients within the same Child-Pugh class. Thus, ALBI score was effective in predicting the long-term prognosis for patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and more accurate than Child-Pugh and MELD scores.

Delta model for end-stage liver disease and delta clinical prognostic indicator as predictors of mortality in patients with viral acute liver failure

Objective:

The objective of the study is to compare the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) with clinical prognostic indicators (CPI) specifically the change in these parameters after 48 h of admission in predicting the mortality in patients with acute liver failure (ALF) due to acute viral hepatitis.

Materials and Methods:

An open label, investigator-initiated prospective study was conducted that included 41 patients with acute viral hepatitis with ALF. The cases were followed prospectively till death or discharge. The MELD and CPI were calculated at admission and 48 h of admission.

Results:

Patients having no change or worsening in CPI score, i.e., delta CPI more negative had a higher mortality over the next 48 h compared to patients having an improvement in their respective CPI score. Delta CPI predicted adverse outcome better than the presence of any three CPI on admission (P = 0.019). Patients having no change or a worsening in MELD score, i.e., delta MELD more negative, had a higher mortality in the next 48 h compared to the patients having improvement in their respective MELD score. However, MELD >33 on admission was superior to delta MELD in predicting the adverse outcome (P = 0.019).

Conclusion:

Among the patients with ALF due to viral hepatitis, delta CPI was found to be superior to delta MELD in predicting the adverse outcome in patients with viral ALF (P < 0.0001).

AST to Platelet Ratio Index Predicts Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Decompensated Cirrhosis

Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) has originally been considered as a noninvasive marker for detecting hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and C. APRI has been used for predicting liver-related mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection or alcoholic liver disease. However, whether APRI could be useful for predicting mortality in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains unevaluated. This study aims to address this knowledge gap. A total of 193 hospitalized chronic HBV-infected patients (cirrhosis, n = 100; noncirrhosis, n = 93) and 88 healthy subjects were retrospectively enrolled. All patients were followed up for 4 months. Mortality that occurred within 90 days of hospital stay was compared among patients with different APRI. APRI predictive value was evaluated by univariate and multivariate regression embedded in a Cox proportional hazards model. APRI varied significantly in our cohort (range, 0.16-10.00). Elevated APRI was associated with increased severity of liver disease and 3-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related cirrhosis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that APRI (odds ratio: 1.456, P < 0.001) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (odds ratio: 1.194, P < 0.001) were 2 independent markers for predicting mortality. APRI is a simple marker that may serve as an additional predictor of 3-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

PURPOSE

The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p<0.01). The best cut-off value of HVPG for predicting long-term overall mortality in all patients was 17 mm Hg. The mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 8.9% and 19.2%, respectively: 1.9% and 11.9% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 16.2% and 29.4% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes.

CONCLUSION

HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites.

Correlation of HVPG level with ctp score, MELD Score, ascites, size of varices, and etiology in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND/AIM

This study intends to determine the correlation of a patient's hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement with six factors: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, presence of ascites, size of varices, presence of variceal bleeding, and an etiology of cirrhosis. The study also aims to identify the predictors of higher HVPG measurements that can indirectly affect the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Thirty patients diagnosed with cirrhosis were enrolled prospectively and each patient's HVPG level was measured by the transjugular catheterization of the right or middle hepatic vein. The wedged hepatic venous pressure (WHVP) and free hepatic venous pressure (FHVP) were measured using a 7F balloon catheter. The HVPG level was calculated as the difference between the WHVP and FHVP measurements.

RESULTS

The mean HVPG level was higher in alcoholic than in nonalcoholic cirrhosis (19.5 ± 7.3 vs 15.2 ± 4.5 mm Hg, P = 0.13). The mean HVPG was also higher in bleeders compared with nonbleeders (18.5 ± 5.3 vs 10.7 ± 3.1 mmHg, P = 0.001). Patients with varices had a higher mean HVPG level than those without varices (17.4 ± 5.8 vs 11.7 ± 3.9 mmHg, P = 0.04). The difference among the three categories of varices (small, large, and no varices) was statistically significant (P = 0.03). In addition, the mean HVPG level was higher in patients with ascites than in those without ascites (18.7 ± 4.7 vs 11 ± 5.3 mmHg, P = 0.002), and it was significantly higher in patients in CTP class C (21.8 ± 5.5 mmHg) as compared with those in CTP class B (16.9 ± 2.9 mmHg) and CTP class A (10.5 ± 4.1 mmHg; P ≤ 0.001).

CONCLUSION

HVPG levels were significantly higher in patients in CTP class C as compared with those in CTP classes A and B, thereby indicating that an HVPG measurement correlates with severity of liver disease. A high HVPG level signifies more severe liver disease and can predict the major complications of cirrhosis.

Immature platelet fraction values predict recovery of platelet counts following liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Thrombocytopenia after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is a well-recognized and prevalent early postoperative complication. In the current study, we assessed the clinical utility of the immature platelet fraction (expressed as a percent of total platelets, IPF %) to predict platelet count recovery following OLT.

METHODS

We analyzed the changes in peripheral platelet counts, IPF values, and liver function before OLT, and 21 days after transplantation in 30 patients with liver cirrhosis. All patients were followed up for at least six months.

RESULTS

The nadir in the peripheral platelet counts most commonly occurred on the 5th day after post-transplant. Platelets counts gradually rose again to exceed pre-transplant levels by the 3rd to 4th day after the IPF % reached its peak.

CONCLUSION

The IPF % increased prior to the elevation of platelet counts in patients with OLT suggesting that the IPF % may reflect production of platelets. These findings suggest IPF% could be useful as a predictor of platelet recovery in patients with OLT.

MELD Score Kinetics in Decompensated HIV+/HCV+ Patients: A Useful Prognostic Tool (ANRS HC EP 25 PRETHEVIC Cohort Study)

To assess prognostic factors for survival and describe Model for End-Stage liver disease (MELD) dynamics in human immunodeficiency virus+/hepatitis C virus+ (HIV+/HCV+) patients after an initial episode of hepatic decompensation.An HIV+/HCV+ cohort of patients experiencing an initial decompensation episode within the year preceding enrollment were followed prospectively. Clinical and biological data were collected every 3 months. Predictors for survival were identified using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models. A 2-slope-mixed linear model was used to estimate MELD score changes as a function of survival.Sixty seven patients were included in 32 centers between 2009 and 2012 (72% male; median age: 48 years [interquartile ratio (IQR):45-52], median follow-up: 22.4 months [range: 0.5-65.3]). Overall survival rates were 86%, 78%, and 59% at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Under multivariate analysis, the MELD score at initial decompensation was predictive of survival, adjusted for age, type of decompensation, baseline CD4 counts, and further decompensation during follow-up as a time-dependent variable. The adjusted hazard ratio of death was 1.32 for a score 3 points higher (95% CI: [1.06-1.63], P = 0.012). MELD score kinetics within the 6 months after initial decompensation differed significantly between non-deceased and deceased patients, with a decreased (-0.49/month; P = 0.016), versus a flat (+0.06/month, P = 0.753) mean change in score.MELD is an effective tool to predict survival in HIV+/HCV+ patients with decompensated cirrhosis. A non-decreasing MELD score within 6 months following this initial decompensation episode may benefit from privileged access to liver transplantation in this poor prognosis population.

Red cell distribution width to platelet ratio, a useful indicator of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis patients

AIMS

We investigated the correlation between the red cell distribution width (RDW) and RDW-to-platelet ratio (RPR) with the degree of inflammation and fibrosis in chronic hepatitis patients with different etiologies and in native and transplanted liver.

METHODS

Between 2010 and 2013, patients from the MedStar Washington Hospital Center and Georgetown University Hospital with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, alcoholic hepatitis, and primary biliary cirrhosis who had a biopsy of the liver done in this time period were included. The correlation among the RDW, RPR, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score with the degree of liver inflammation, fibrosis, and cirrhosis in separate groups of native and transplanted liver was calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 152 cases with native liver and 70 cases with transplanted liver were included. The majority of patients had hepatitis C in both groups. None of the investigated variables showed significant correlation with the degree of inflammation in either group. The strongest correlation with the degree of fibrosis in the native liver group was for the RPR with 0.51 (p < 0.001) and then the RDW and MELD with 0.34 (p < 0.001) and 0.31 (p < 0.001), respectively. In the transplanted liver group, none of the variables showed significant correlation with the degree of fibrosis. The receiver-operator curve showed that only the RDW and RPR in the native liver group, with areas under the curve of 0.770 and 0.684, respectively, have significantly positive association with the risk of cirrhosis. In the transplanted group, none of the predictors were associated with risk of cirrhosis. In the native liver group, a cutoff value of 0.088 in the RPR led to 82.7% sensitivity and 61.0% specificity to predict cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The RPR can be a strong predictor of the degree of fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis and native liver. It shows higher accuracy compared to the RDW and MELD score. However, its use in predicting inflammation is limited.

Higher Mortality in registrants with sudden model for end-stage liver disease increase: Disadvantaged by the current allocation policy

Liver allocation is based on current Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, with priority in the case of a tie being given to those waiting the longest with a given MELD score. We hypothesized that this priority might not reflect risk: registrants whose MELD score has recently increased receive lower priority but might have higher wait-list mortality. We studied wait-list and posttransplant mortality in 69,643 adult registrants from 2002 to 2013. By likelihood maximization, we empirically defined a MELD spike as a MELD increase ≥ 30% over the previous 7 days. At any given time, only 0.6% of wait-list patients experienced a spike; however, these patients accounted for 25% of all wait-list deaths. Registrants who reached a given MELD score after a spike had higher wait-list mortality in the ensuing 7 days than those with the same resulting MELD score who did not spike, but they had no difference in posttransplant mortality. The spike-associated wait-list mortality increase was highest for registrants with medium MELD scores: specifically, 2.3-fold higher (spike versus no spike) for a MELD score of 10, 4.0-fold higher for a MELD score of 20, and 2.5-fold higher for a MELD score of 30. A model incorporating the MELD score and spikes predicted wait-list mortality risk much better than a model incorporating only the MELD score. Registrants with a sudden MELD increase have a higher risk of short-term wait-list mortality than is indicated by their current MELD score but have no increased risk of posttransplant mortality; allocation policy should be adjusted accordingly.

REpeated AutoLogous Infusions of STem cells In Cirrhosis (REALISTIC): a multicentre, phase II, open-label, randomised controlled trial of repeated autologous infusions of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF) mobilised CD133+ bone marrow stem cells in patients with cirrhosis. A study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Liver disease mortality and morbidity are rapidly rising and liver transplantation is limited by organ availability. Small scale human studies have shown that stem cell therapy is safe and feasible and has suggested clinical benefit. No published studies have yet examined the effect of stem cell therapy in a randomised controlled trial and evaluated the effect of repeated therapy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Patients with liver cirrhosis will be randomised to one of three trial groups: group 1: Control group, Standard conservative management; group 2 treatment: granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF; lenograstim) 15 µg/kg body weight daily on days 1-5; group 3 treatment: G-CSF 15 µg/kg body weight daily on days 1-5 followed by leukapheresis, isolation and aliquoting of CD133+ cells. Patients will receive an infusion of freshly isolated CD133+ cells immediately and frozen doses at days 30 and 60 via peripheral vein (0.2×10(6) cells/kg for each of the three doses). Primary objective is to demonstrate an improvement in the severity of liver disease over 3 months using either G-CSF alone or G-CSF followed by repeated infusions of haematopoietic stem cells compared with standard conservative management. The trial is powered to answer two hypotheses of each treatment compared to control but not powered to detect smaller expected differences between the two treatment groups. As such, the overall α=0.05 for the trial is split equally between the two hypotheses. Conventionally, to detect a relevant standardised effect size of 0.8 point reduction in Model for End-stage Liver Disease score using two-sided α=0.05(overall α=0.1 split equally between the two hypotheses) and 80% power requires 27 participants to be randomised per group (81 participants in total).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial is registered at Current Controlled Trials on 18 November 2009 (ISRCTN number 91288089, EuDRACT number 2009-010335-41). The findings of this trial will be disseminated to patients and through peer-reviewed publications and international presentations.

Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist correlates with hepatic venous pressure gradient and predicts occurrence of overall complications and bacterial infections in patients with cirrhosis

AIM

The plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-1α, IL-1β and IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) are increased in cirrhotic patients. We aimed to investigate whether these cytokines correlate with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), the severity of liver cirrhosis and complications of cirrhosis.

METHODS

Sixty-three cirrhotic patients that underwent hemodynamic studies in Taipei Veterans General hospital were enrolled retrospectively. Plasma levels of IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-1Ra and endotoxin were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Plasma obtained from 11 healthy subjects served as normal controls.

RESULTS

Plasma levels of IL-1α, IL-1β and IL-1Ra were increased in cirrhotic patients compared with controls. IL-1Ra levels significantly correlated with plasma endotoxin levels, Child-Pugh scores, Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores and HVPG. On multivariate analysis, higher IL-1Ra levels (≥760 pg/mL) predicted the occurrence of portal hypertension-related complications and the development of bacterial infections independently of the MELD scores and portal pressure. Furthermore, higher IL-1Ra levels also predicted the survival in patients without hepatocellular carcinoma.

CONCLUSION

The plasma IL-1Ra level correlates with HVPG. Additionally, it may predict the occurrence of portal hypertension-related complications and bacterial infections in cirrhotic patients and the survival in patients without hepatocellular carcinoma.

The association between red blood cell distribution width and acute pancreatitis associated lung injury in patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) that describes red blood cell volume heterogeneity is a common laboratory test. Our aim was to focus on the association between RDW and acute pancreatitis associated lung injury (APALI).

METHODOLOGY

A total of 152 acute pancreatitis (AP) patients who conformed to the criteria were included in this study. The demographic data, medical histories and laboratory measures was obtained from each patient on admission, further, the medical histories and biological data were analyzed, retrospectively.

RESULTS

Increased RDW at admission was observed in patients with APALI compared with the non-APALI groups. Our results exhibited that RDW was an independent risk factor for APALI after adjusting leukocyte, neutrophil percentage, random blood glucose (RBG), total bilirubin (TB) and total bile acid (TBA) (Crude model) (OR=2.671;CI 95% 1.145-6.230; P=0.023), further adjustment based on Crude model for sex and age did not attenuate the significantly high risk of APALI in patients with AP, RWD still remained a roles as an independent risk factor for APALI (OR=2.653;CI95 % 1.123-6.138; P=0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrate that RDW at admission is associated with APALI and should be considered as an underlying risk factor of APALI.

Developing Exposure/Response Models for Anticancer Drug Treatment: Special Considerations

Anticancer agents often have a narrow therapeutic index (TI), requiring precise dosing to ensure sufficient exposure for clinical activity while minimizing toxicity. These agents frequently have complex pharmacology, and combination therapy may cause schedule-specific effects and interactions. We review anticancer drug development, showing how integration of modeling and simulation throughout development can inform anticancer dose selection, potentially improving the late-phase success rate. This article has a companion article in Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics with practical examples.

Red cell distribution width is associated with presence, stage, and grade in patients with renal cell carcinoma

It has been reported that red blood cell width (RDW) is a marker associated with the presence and adverse outcomes of various diseases. However, no data are available on the correlation of RDW with presence, stage, and grade in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) yet. By retrospectively analyzing clinical and laboratory data at baseline of histologically confirmed RCC cases and controls, the present study demonstrated that the RDW values were significantly higher in patients with RCC than those in controls, and the baseline RDW value was independently associated with the presence of RCC. Besides, the data revealed a positive association between RCC stage and grade and the level of RDW. These findings may have important clinical implications due to future application using a RDW value in predicting RCC.

Bone marrow stem cell therapy for liver disease

Liver disease is a rising cause of mortality and morbidity, and treatment options remain limited. Liver transplantation is curative but limited by donor organ availability, operative risk and long-term complications. The contribution of bone marrow (BM)-derived stem cells to tissue regeneration has been recognised and there is considerable interest in the potential benefits of BM stem cells in patients with liver disease. In chronic liver disease, deposition of fibrous scar tissue inhibits hepatocyte proliferation and leads to portal hypertension. Although initial reports had suggested transdifferentiation of stem cells into hepatocytes, the beneficial effects of BM stem cells are more likely derived from the ability to breakdown scar tissue and stimulate hepatocyte proliferation. Studies in animal models have yielded promising results, although the exact mechanisms and cell type responsible have yet to be determined. Small-scale clinical studies have quickly followed and, although primarily designed to examine safety and feasibility of this approach, have reported improvements in liver function in treated patients. Well-designed, controlled studies are required to fully determine the benefits of BM stem cell therapy.

New index to predict esophageal variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients

AIM: To develop a safe, simple, noninvasive and affordable system to predict esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) in decompensated cirrhosis patients.

METHODS: Four hundred and eighty-six patients with decompensated cirrhosis (238 males and 248 females), with a mean age of 63.1 ± 11.2 years, were admitted to Changshu Affiliated Hospital of Suzhou University between May 2008 and March 2011. Patients enrolled in this study underwent ultrasound-Doppler (US-Doppler) to assess left gastric vein (LGV) blood flow velocity (LGVV) and blood flow direction (LGVBFD), and were evaluated by the Model For End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system. All patients received follow-up evaluations every three months. The resulting data were entered into a database after each time point collection.

RESULTS: Four hundred and sixteen patients completed follow-up evaluations for an average of 31.6 mo (range: 12 to 47 mo). Fifty-one (12.3%) patients experienced EVB. The change in the MELD score over three months (ΔMELD), LGVV and LGVBFD were independently associated with EVB occurrence. MELD-US-Doppler Index (MUI), a new index, was developed and calculated using the following logistic regression equation: MUI = Logit (P) = 1.667 (ΔMELD) + 2.096 (LGVV) - 3.245 (LGVBFD) - 1.697. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for prediction of EVB occurrence was significantly higher for the MUI [0.858 (95%CI: 0.774-0.920)] than for ΔMELD [0.734 (95%CI: 0.636-0.817); P < 0.05], LGVV [0.679 (95%CI: 0.578-0.769); P < 0.05] or LGVBFD [0.726 (95%CI: 0.627-0.810); P < 0.05] alone. When the MUI was set at 46, the index had high diagnostic accuracy (85.8%), with high specificity (80%) and sensitivity (87.27%).

CONCLUSION: The MUI, a noninvasive and affordable index, can predict EVB occurrence in decompensated cirrhotic patients and serve as an alternative when conventional endoscopic screening is declined.

Prediction of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in cirrhotic ascites by a simple scoring system

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a life-threatening complication in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this prospective study was to identify predictors of SBP in order to develop a noninvasive method to identify or exclude an episode of SBP.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Three hundred and ninety-two consecutive patients, who underwent paracentesis from March 2008 through January 2012 in our department due to cirrhotic ascites, were screened. Ninety-six patients were excluded, mostly due to prior application of antibiotics. SBP was defined by an absolute neutrophil count≥250 cells/µL ascites. We evaluated various clinical and laboratory parameters as potential predictors of SBP. A scoring system was developed in a training set of 220 and validated in a second set of 76 patients.

RESULTS

Fifty-eight patients (26%) in the training set and 17 patients in the validation set (22%) suffered from SBP. Thrombocytopenia≤100,000 cells/µL, age>60 years and CRP>60 mg/L were identified as independent predictors of SBP. A scoring system combining these three parameters (weighting thrombocytopenia and age with 1 point each, but CRP with 2 points) reaches a positive predictive value for the diagnosis of SBP of 81.8% with a specificity of 98.8% (score≥3). The negative predictive value at a threshold of 1 point is 93.5% with a sensitivity of 87.9%. Notably, a high MELD score is not associated with SBP (p=0.3344).

CONCLUSIONS

Combination of age, CRP and platelet count in a simple scoring system helps in the rapid diagnosis or exclusion of SBP.