MELD-Na as a prognostic score for cirrhotic patients: Hyponatremia and ascites are back in the game

Serum potassium levels and prognosis in HBV-associated decompensated cirrhosis

Background

Serum potassium disorders are commonly seen in patients with advanced cirrhosis and have a detrimental effect on clinical outcome, but its role in HBV‐related decompensated cirrhosis (DeCi) is remained to be illustrated. We aim to assess the effects of serum potassium on outcomes in HBV‐DeCi patients.

Methods

Retrospective study included 155 subjects. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factor. Predictive ability of mortality for variables was determined using the receiver operating characteristics curves.

Results

The 30‐day in‐hospital mortality was 12.9%. Serum potassium levels differed markedly between survivors and non‐survivors. On multivariate analysis, Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and serum potassium level were identified as independent predictors of outcomes in HBV‐DeCi patients. The combination of serum potassium and MELD score could improve prognostic accuracy in these patients.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that serum potassium is an effective predictor for poor outcomes in HBV‐DeCi patients.

Model for end-stage liver disease and pneumonia: An improved scoring model for critically ill cirrhotic patients with pneumonia

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Critically ill patients with cirrhosis with pneumonia are at an increased risk for mortality. Only a few accurate predictive models are existing specific to these patients. The aim of the present study was to compare the existing prognostic models and to develop an improved mortality risk model for patients with cirrhosis and pneumonia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 231 patients were enrolled in our study (70% training and 30% validation cohorts). All participants were followed up for at least 21 days. Model for End-stage Liver Disease and Pneumonia (MELD-P) was derived by the Cox proportional hazards model. The performances of prognostic scoring systems were compared by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.

RESULTS

MELD-P showed better discriminative capabilities than existing scoring systems. Four clinical variables, including loge bilirubin (hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.73), loge international normalized ratio (HR 3.57, 95% CI 1.30-9.78), loge pulse oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.14-0.99), and vasopressors used (HR 3.72, 95% CI 1.85-7.49), were considered as independent prognostic values associated with 21-day mortality. MELD-P had AUROC curve values of 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) in predicting in-hospital mortality, 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.84) at 21-day, 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.93) at 14-day, and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.92) at 7-day. A similar result was obtained in validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

MELD-P, as the first model specifically designed to evaluate the risk of mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and pneumonia, performs well on the mortality assessment of short-term mortality.

Remodeling the model for end-stage liver disease for predicting mortality risk in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and acute kidney injury

Serum creatinine measurement demonstrates a poor specificity and sensitivity for the early diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with cirrhosis. The existing model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) score reveals multiple pitfalls in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and acute kidney injury (CAKI). The aim of this study was to re‐evaluate the role of creatinine values in the existing MELD score and to develop a novel score for CAKI, named the “acute kidney injury–model for end‐stage liver disease score” (AKI‐MELD score). We extracted 651 CAKI from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database. A time‐dependent Cox regression analysis was performed for developing remodeled MELD scores (Reweight‐MELD score, Del‐Cr‐MELD score, and AKI‐MELD score). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve provided the discriminative power of scoring models related to outcome. The hazard ratio of creatinine was 1.104 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945‐1.290; P = 0.211). Reweight‐MELD score and Del‐Cr‐MELD score (decreasing the weight of creatinine) were superior to the original MELD score (all P < 0.001). The new AKI‐MELD score consists of bilirubin, the international normalized ratio, and the ratio of creatinine in 48 hours to creatinine at admission. It had competitive discriminative ability for predicting mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.720 [95% CI, 0.653‐0.762] at 30 days, 0.688 [95% CI, 0.630‐0.742] at 90 days, and 0.671 [95% CI, 0.612‐0.725] at 1 year). Further, AKI‐MELD score had significantly higher predictive ability in comparison with MELD score, MELD‐Na score, and Updated MELD score (all P < 0.001). Conclusion: The predictive value of creatinine for CAKI should be re‐evaluated. AKI‐MELD score is a potentially reliable tool to determine the prognosis for mortality of CAKI. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:748–756)

Acute circulatory failure-chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score: a novel scoring model for mortality risk prediction in critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute circulatory failure

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute circulatory failure (ACF) is associated with high mortality rates in critically ill cirrhotic patients. Only a few accurate scoring models exist specific to critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute circulatory failure (CICCF) for mortality risk assessment. The aim was to develop and evaluate a novel model specific to CICCF.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study collected and analyzed the data on CICCF from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care-III database. The acute circulatory failure-chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (ACF-CLIF-SOFA) score was derived by Cox's proportional hazards regression. Performance analysis of ACF-CLIF-SOFA against CLIF-SOFA and model for end-stage liver disease systems was completed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

ACF-CLIF-SOFA identified six independent factors: mean arterial pressure [hazard ratio (HR)=0.984, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.978-0.990, P<0.001], vasopressin (HR=1.548, 95% CI: 1.273-1.883, P<0.001), temperature (HR=0.764, 95% CI: 0.694-0.840, P<0.001), bilirubin (HR=1.031, 95% CI: 1.022-1.041, P<0.001), lactate (HR=1.113, 95% CI: 1.084-1.142, P<0.001), and urine output (HR=0.854, 95% CI: 0.767-0.951, P=0.004). ACF-CLIF-SOFA showed a better predictive performance than CLIF-SOFA and model for end-stage liver disease in terms of predicting mortality (0.769 vs. 0.729 vs. 0.713 at 30 days, 0.757 vs. 0.707 vs. 0.698 at 90 days, 0.733 vs. 0.685 vs. 0.691 at 1 year, respectively, all P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

ACF-CLIF-SOFA, as the first model specific to CICCF, enables a more accurate prediction at 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year follow-up periods than other existing scoring systems.

Potential use of metabolic breath tests to assess liver disease and prognosis: has the time arrived for routine use in the clinic?

The progression of liver disease may be unique among organ system diseases in that progressive fibrosis compromises not only the sufficiency of hepatocyte mass but also impairs blood flow to the liver, resulting in porto-systemic shunting. Although liver biopsy as an assessment of fibrosis has become the key biomarker of and target for new therapies, it is invasive and subject to sampling error, and cannot quantify metabolic function or porto-systemic shunting. Measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient accommodates some of the deficiencies of biopsy but requires expertise not widely available and misses minor changes in hepatocellular mass and thereby information about metabolic function. Thus, an unmet need in clinical hepatology remains unfulfilled: a noninvasive biomarker which quantitates both the hepatocellular insufficiency and porto-systemic shunting inherent in progressive hepatic fibrosis. Ideally, such a biomarker should correlate with clinical endpoints including liver-related survival and cirrhotic complications, be performed at the point-of-care, and be affordable and easy to use. This review, an expert opinion, summarizes background and recent data suggesting that metabolic breath tests may now meet these requirements and have a valid place in clinical hepatology to supplant the time-honoured assessment of hepatic fibrosis.

Predictors of Mortality in the Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patient: Is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Enough?

BACKGROUND

Critically ill cirrhotics require liver transplantation urgently, but are at high risk for perioperative mortality. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, recently updated to incorporate serum sodium, estimates survival probability in patients with cirrhosis, but needs additional evaluation in the critically ill. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of ICU admission MELD scores and identify clinical risk factors associated with increased mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective review of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU between January 2011 and December 2014. Patients who were discharged or underwent transplantation (survivors) were compared with those who died (nonsurvivors). Demographic characteristics, admission MELD scores, and clinical risk factors were recorded. Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality, and measures of model performance were assessed to determine predictive accuracy.

RESULTS

Of 276 patients who met inclusion criteria, 153 were considered survivors and 123 were nonsurvivors. Survivor and nonsurvivor cohorts had similar demographic characteristics. Nonsurvivors had increased MELD, gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, mechanical ventilation, encephalopathy, vasopressors, dialysis, renal replacement therapy, requirement of blood products, and ICU length of stay. The MELD demonstrated low predictive power (c-statistic 0.73). Multivariate analysis identified MELD score (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.05), mechanical ventilation (AOR = 4.55), vasopressors (AOR = 3.87), and continuous renal replacement therapy (AOR = 2.43) as independent predictors of mortality, with stronger predictive accuracy (c-statistic 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD demonstrated relatively poor predictive accuracy in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and might not be the best indicator for prognosis in the ICU population. Prognostic accuracy is significantly improved when variables indicating organ support (mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and continuous renal replacement therapy) are included in the model.

Influence of preoperative sodium concentration on outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus cirrhosis after liver transplantation

OBJECTIVES

Whether preoperative serum sodium concentration could influence post-transplant patients' prognosis remains controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of patients' pretransplant sodium concentration on the prognosis after liver transplantation in a cohort of patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data derived from the Chinese Liver Transplantation Registry system from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2011 were extracted. The serum sodium concentrations and model for end-stage liver disease scores were recorded at listing before liver transplantation, and the relationship between the above parameters and patients' outcome was analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 2733 patients were included in this study. Compared with patients in the normal group (serum sodium between 135 and 150 mmol/l), patients in the severe hyponatremia group (<125 mmol/l) (P=0.022) and hypernatremia group (>150 mmol/l) (P=0.008) had a poorer prognosis. No significant differences were found among the moderate hyponatremia group (125-130 mmol/l) (P=0.113) and the mild hyponatremia group (130-135 mmol/l) (P=0.461). The 5-year cumulative survivals for the hyponatremia (≤135 mmol/l), normal (135-150 mmol/l), and hypernatremia (≥150 mmol/l) pretransplant group are 79.52, 82.23, and 69.30%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis showed that for patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis in mainland China, patients with abnormal serum sodium concentrations have poorer prognosis; both preoperative hyponatremia and hypernatremia were identified as negative risk factors for patients' outcome.

Mortality in hepatectomy: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease as a predictor of death using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

BACKGROUND

The predictive value of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) for mortality after hepatectomy is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate whether MELD score predicts death after hepatectomy and to identify the most useful score type for predicting mortality. We hypothesized that an increase in this score is correlated with 30-day mortality in patients undergoing hepatic resection.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for hepatectomy. Original MELD, United Network of Organ Sharing-modified MELD (uMELD), integrated MELD (i-MELD), and sodium-corrected MELD (MELD-Na) scores were calculated. Mortality was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. MELD types were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2011, 11,933 hepatic resections were performed, including 7,519 partial, 2,104 right, and 1,210 left resections, and 1,100 trisectionectomies. The mean duration of stay was 8.4 ± 22.0 days, and there were 275 deaths (2.4%). The 30-day mortality rates were 1.8%, 6.9%, 15.4%, and 25% according to uMELD strata of 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, and ≥ 30, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that increasing MELD stratum was independently associated with higher mortality (P < .001) for all MELD types. The uMELD had the largest effect size (odds ratio [OR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.20), whereas i-MELD had the narrowest CI (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.10-1.17) and largest area under the ROC curve.

CONCLUSION

The postoperative 30-day mortality after hepatectomy increases with increasing MELD score across all MELD types. There is a 16% increase in the odds of mortality for each point increase in uMELD.

Impact of hyponatremia on frequency of complications in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis

Introduction

Hyponatremia is common in cirrhosis. The relationship between hyponatremia and severity of cirrhosis is evidenced by its close association with the occurrence of complications, the prevalence of hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, refectory ascites, and hepatic hydrothorax. The aim of this study was assess the impact of hyponatremia on the occurrence of both liver-related complications and the hemodynamic cardiovascular dysfunction.

Methods

This prospective study was conducted in 2015 on 74 patients with liver cirrhosis. The patients were from the Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department of Theodor Bilharz Research Institute in Giza, Egypt. The patients were divided into three groups according to their serum level of sodium. Group 1 included 30 patients with serum sodium >135 meq/L, group 2 included 24 patients with serum sodium between135 and 125 meq/L, and group 3 included 20 patients with serum sodium <125 meq/L. For each of the patients, we conducted aclinical examination, laboratory investigations, chest X-ray, ECG, abdominal sonar, and echocardiography.

Results

Hyponatremia was found in 59.46% of our cirrhotic patients, and they showed significantly increased Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, MELD-Na score, QTc interval, Pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) and inferior vena cava (IVC) collapsibility, and decreased SVR and IVC diameter. Also hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, renal failure, infectious complications, and pleural effusion were significantly more common in hyponatremic cirrhotic patients.

Conclusion

In cirrhosis, hyponatremia is more common in severe cardiovascular dysfunction and associated with increased risk of hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, illness severity scores, renal failure, infectious complications, and pleural effusion. We recommend selective oral administration of vasopressin V2-receptor antagonist, tolvaptan, which acts to increase the excretion of free water, thereby resolving hypervolemic hyponatremia and may have the potential to improve outcomes in these patients.

The performance of prognostic models as predictors of mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although several prognostic models have been proposed for cirrhotic patients listed for transplantation, the performance of these scores as predictors of mortality in patients admitted for acute decompensation of cirrhosis has not been satisfactorily investigated.

AIMS

To study MELD, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit-MELD and Refit MELD-Na models as prognostic predictors in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation, and to compare their performance between admission and 48 hours of hospitalization to predict in-hospital mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cohort study included cirrhotic patients admitted to hospital due to complications of the disease. Individuals were evaluated on admission and after 48 h of hospitalization, and mortality was evaluated during the present admission.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-three subjects with a mean age of 54.26 ± 10.79 years were included; 76.4% were male. Mean MELD score was 16.43 ± 7.08 and 52.0% of patients were Child-Pugh C. Twenty-seven patients (22.0%) died during hospitalization. Similar areas under the curve (AUROCs) for prognosis of mortality were observed when different models were compared on admission (P > 0.05) and after 48 h of hospitalization (P > 0.05). When models executed after 48 h of hospitalization were compared to their corresponding model calculated on admission, significantly higher AUROCs were obtained for all models (P < 0.05), except for MELD-Na (P = 0.075) and iMELD (P = 0.119).

CONCLUSION

The studied models showed similar accuracy as predictors of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation. However, the performance of these models was significantly better when applied 48 h after admission when compared to their calculation on admission.

Systemic vascular resistance in cirrhosis: a predictor of severity?

Background

The aim of this study was to investigate whether systemic vascular resistance (SVR) correlates with validated prospective scoring systems such as Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and its modifications.

Methods

Patients with cirrhosis, who were admitted to hospital with decompensation (as defined by development of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and variceal bleeding) and underwent echocardiography were included in this study. Laboratory data required for computing MELD score, serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio, and serum sodium were collected for every patient. We tabulated hemodynamic and echocardiography parameters that enabled calculation of SVR. We analyzed the correlation between SVR and each of the individual prognostic scores.

Results

A total of 771 patients with a diagnosis of decompensated cirrhosis were included in the study. Two hundred and sixty-two patients were found to have a low sodium level (<135 mEq/L) and 509 were found to have a normal sodium level (>135 mEq/L). In the patients with hyponatremia, we found statistically significant inverse correlations between SVR and validated liver severity models. However, these correlations were not seen in patients with normonatremia.

Conclusion

We observed a statistically significant inverse correlation between SVR and all the validated liver disease severity models used in this study among patients with hyponatremia but not in those with normonatremia.

Risk factors and a predictive model for acute hepatic failure after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Acute hepatic failure (AHF) is one of the most serious complications of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). The aims of this study were to investigate risk factors of AHF after TACE and to establish a predictive model for AHF.

METHODS

In the evaluation set, a total of 820 patients who underwent TACE as a first treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma were included. The demographic, laboratory, radiological and treatment-related factors were analysed to identify risk factors for AHF after TACE and a predictive model was established using the identified risk factors. In the validation set, a different cohort of 438 patients was included to validate the predictive model.

RESULTS

The incidence of post-TACE AHF was 15.1% (124/820). Multivariate analysis revealed that presence of portal vein thrombosis, high aspartate aminotransferase, bilirubin, and log alpha-foetoprotein levels, and low albumin and sodium levels were independent risk factors. A mathematical model was established using these independent risk factors, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.773 (95% confidence interval, 0.726-0.820). The cut-off value of 9 had a sensitivity of 78.2%, a specificity of 72.3%, a positive likelihood ratio of 2.82, a negative likelihood ratio of 0.30, a positive predictive value of 28.9% and a negative predictive value of 95.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors of post-TACE AHF were presence of portal vein thrombosis, high aspartate aminotransferase, bilirubin, and alpha-foetoprotein levels, and low serum albumin and sodium levels. A mathematical model to predict post-TACE AHF was established.

Severe hyponatremia is a better predictor of mortality than MELDNa in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The MELDNa score was developed to improve the prognostic value of the MELD score in cirrhosis and was built for serum sodium concentrations numerically capped between 125 and 140 mmol/L. This model is not validated in a well-defined population of patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites in whom severe hyponatremia (≤ 125 mmol/L) is frequent. This study assessed the prognostic value of severe hyponatremia and the MELDNa score in these patients.

METHODS

A consecutive, single-centre, observational, prospective study was performed in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites defined according to the International Ascites Club criteria. The prevalence of low serum sodium was assessed in this population. Predictive factors of mortality were analyzed and compared.

RESULTS

One hundred seventy-four patients were included. Sixty-six (37.9%) had low serum sodium (< 130 mmol/L). Sixty-one (35.1%) had diuretic-intractable ascites due to severe hyponatremia (≤ 125 mmol/L). The median MELDNa score was 23 (10-33). The 1-year cumulative incidence of death was 55% (95% CI: 55-56%). The best predictive factors of mortality were the following: severe hyponatremia (≤ 125 mmol/L) as an underlying cause of refractory ascites, a higher Child-Pugh score, beta-blocker therapy, and a high frequency of large-volume paracentesis. The Child-Pugh score had a higher area under receiver operating curve to predict mortality than MELDNa.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites, severe hyponatremia and Child-Pugh score are better predictors of mortality than MELDNa.

Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells improve liver function and ascites in decompensated liver cirrhosis patients

Decompensated liver cirrhosis (LC), a life-threatening complication of chronic liver disease, is one of the major indications for liver transplantation. Recently, mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) transfusion has been shown to lead to the regression of liver fibrosis in mice and humans. This study examined the safety and efficacy of umbilical cord-derived MSC (UC-MSC) in patients with decompensated LC. A total of 45 chronic hepatitis B patients with decompensated LC, including 30 patients receiving UC-MSC transfusion, and 15 patients receiving saline as the control, were recruited; clinical parameters were detected during a 1-year follow-up period. No significant side-effects and complications were observed in either group. There was a significant reduction in the volume of ascites in patients treated with UC-MSC transfusion compared with controls (P < 0.05). UC-MSC therapy also significantly improved liver function, as indicated by the increase of serum albumin levels, decrease in total serum bilirubin levels, and decrease in the sodium model for end-stage liver disease scores. UC-MSC transfusion is clinically safe and could improve liver function and reduce ascites in patients with decompensated LC. UC-MSC transfusion, therefore, might present a novel therapeutic approach for patients with decompensated LC.

Prospective evaluation of the prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) have a poor prognosis. Identifying patients in whom ICU care will be useful can be challenging. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of prognostic scores with respect to mortality and to identify mortality risk factors.

METHODS

Three hundred and seventy-seven cirrhotic patients admitted to a Liver ICU between May 2005 and March 2009 were enrolled in this study. Their average age was 55.5±11.4 years. The etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (68%), virus hepatitis (18%), or mixed (5.5%). The main causes of hospitalization were gastrointestinal hemorrhage (43%), sepsis (19%), and hepatic encephalopathy (12%).

RESULTS

ICU and in-hospital mortality rates were 34.7% and 43.0%, respectively. Infection was the major cause of death (81.6%). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that SOFA (0.92) and SAPS II (0.89) scores calculated within 24h of admission predicted ICU mortality better than the Child-Pugh score (0.79) or MELD scores with (0.79-0.82) or without the incorporation of serum sodium levels (0.82). Statistical analysis showed that the prognostic severity scores, organ replacement therapy, and infection were accurate predictors of mortality. On multivariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor therapy, bilirubin level at admission, and infection were independently associated with ICU mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

For cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU, SAPS II, and SOFA scores predicted ICU mortality better than liver-specific scores. Mechanical ventilation or vasopressor therapy, bilirubin levels at admission and infection in patients with advanced cirrhosis were associated with a poor outcome.

A fourth dimension in decision making in hepatology

Today, the assessment of liver function in patients suffering from acute or chronic liver disease is based on liver biopsy and blood tests including synthetic function, liver enzymes and viral load, most of which provide only circumstantial evidence as to the degree of hepatic impairment. Most of these tests lack the degree of sensitivity to be useful for follow-up of these patients at the frequency that is needed for decision making in clinical hepatology. Accurate assessment of liver function is essential to determine both short- and long-term prognosis, and for making decisions about liver and non-liver surgery, TIPS, chemoembolization or radiofrequency ablation in patients with chronic liver disease. Liver function tests can serve as the basis for accurate decision-making regarding the need for liver transplantation in the setting of acute failure or in patients with chronic liver disease. The liver metabolic breath test relies on measuring exhaled (13) C tagged methacetin, which is metabolized only by the liver. Measuring this liver-specific substrate by means of molecular correlation spectroscopy is a rapid, non-invasive method for assessing liver function at the point-of-care. The (13) C methacetin breath test (MBT) is a powerful tool to aid clinical hepatologists in bedside decision-making. Our recent findings regarding the ability of point-of-care (13) C MBT to assess the hepatic functional reserve in patients with acute and chronic liver disease are reviewed along with suggested treatment algorithms for common liver disorders.

Pre-operative nomogram to predict risk of peri-operative mortality following liver resections for malignancy

INTRODUCTION

The majority of liver resections for malignancy are performed in older patient with major co-morbidities. There is currently no pre-operative, patient-specific method to determine the likely peri-operative mortality for each individual patient. The aim of this study was to develop a pre-operative nomogram based on the presence of co-morbidities to predict risk of peri-operative mortality following liver resections for malignancy.

METHODS

The Nationwide Inpatient Sample database was queried to identify adult patients that underwent liver resection for malignancy. The pre-operative co-morbidities, identified as predictors were used and a nomogram was created with multivariate regression using Taylor expansion method in SAS software, surveylogistic procedure. Training set (years 2000-2004) was utilized to develop the model and validation set (year 2005) was utilized to validate this model.

RESULTS

A total of 3,947 and 972 patients were included in training and validation sets, respectively. The overall actual-observed peri-operative mortality rates for training and validation sets were 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively. The decile-based calibration plots for the training set revealed good agreement between the observed probabilities and nomogram-predicted probabilities. Similarly, the quartile-based calibration plot for the validation set revealed good agreement between the observed and predicted probabilities. The accuracy of the nomogram was further reinforced by a good concordance index of 0.80 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.72 and 0.87.

CONCLUSIONS

This pre-operative nomogram may be utilized to predict the risk of peri-operative mortality following liver resection for malignancy.

Rescue policy for discarded liver grafts: a single-centre experience of transplanting livers 'that nobody wants'

BACKGROUND

There is a worldwide need to expand the donor liver pool. We report a consecutive series of elective candidates for liver transplantation (LT) who received 'livers that nobody wants' (LNWs) in Argentina.

METHODS

Between 2006 and 2009, outcomes for patients who received LNWs were analysed and compared with outcomes for a control group. To be defined as an LNW, an organ is required to fulfil two criteria. Firstly, each liver must be officially offered and refused more than 30 times; secondly, the liver must be refused by at least 50% of the LT programmes in our country before our programme can accept it. Principal endpoints were primary graft non-function (PNF), mortality, and graft and patient survival.

RESULTS

We transplanted 26 LNWs that had been discarded by a median of 12 centres. A total of 2666 reasons for refusal had been registered. These included poor donor status (n= 1980), followed by LT centre (n= 398) or recipient (n= 288) conditions. Incidences of PNF (3.8% vs. 4.0%), in-hospital mortality (3.8% vs. 8.0%), 1-year patient (84% vs. 84%) and graft (84% vs. 80%) survival were equal in the LNW and control groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Transplantable livers are unnecessarily discarded by the transplant community. External and internal supervision of the activity of each LT programme is urgently needed to guarantee high standards of excellence.

Model for end-stage liver disease exceptions committee activity in Argentina: does it provide justice and equity among adult patients waiting for a liver transplant?

BACKGROUND

In 2005, the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based allocation system was adopted to assess potential liver transplant (LT) recipients in Argentina. The aim of the present study was to revise the activity of the MELD Exception Experts Committee.

METHODS

Between 2005 and 2009, 1623 patients were listed for LT. Regulation provides extra-MELD points for amyloidosis, hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) and T(2) hepatocellular carcinoma (T(2) HCC). Centres could also request priority for other situations. Using a prospective database, we identified patients in whom priority points were requested. Pathology reports of explanted livers were analysed for patients with T(2) HCC.

RESULTS

From 234 out of 1623 (14.4%) requests, the overall approval rate was 60.2% including: 2 amyloidosis, 6 HPS, 111 T(2) HCC and 22 non-regulated situations. Of the 111 patients with T(2) HCC, 6 died (5.4%), 8 had tumour progression (7.2%), 94 were transplanted (84.2%) and 3 are still waiting. An explants correlation showed that presumed diagnosis of T(2) HCC was incorrect in 20/94 (22%) and was correct in only 41/94 (43%) cases being T(1) HCC in 9 and T(3) HCC in 23.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD exceptions are frequently requested in Argentina. Unfortunately, most receiving priority points for T(2) HCC benefited by medical error or imaging limitations. An intense review process is urgently needed to maintain equity and justice in the allocation system.

Model for end-stage liver disease-based allocation system for liver transplantation in Argentina: does it work outside the United States?

BACKGROUND

In July 2005, Argentina was the first country after the United States to adopt the MELD system. The purpose of the present study was to analyse the impact of this new system on the adult liver waiting list (WL).

METHODS

Between 2005 and 2009, 1773 adult patients were listed for liver transplantation: 150 emergencies and 1623 electives. Elective patients were categorized using the MELD system. A prospective database was used to analyse mortality and probability to be transplanted (PTBT) on the WL.

RESULTS

The waiting time increased inversely with the MELD score and PTBT positively correlated with MELD score. With scores >/= 18 the PTBT remained over 50%. However, the largest MELD subgroup with <10 points (n = 433) had the lower PTBT (3%). In contrast, patients with T(2) hepatocellular carcinoma benefited excessively with the highest PTBT (84.2%) and the lowest mortality rate (5.4%). The WL mortality increased after MELD adoption (10% vs. 14.8% vs. P < 0.01). Patients with <10 MELD points had >fourfold probability of dying on the WL than PTBT (14.3% vs. 3%; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

After MELD implementation, WL mortality increased and most patients who died had a low MELD score. A comprehensive revision of the MELD system must be performed to include cultural and socio-economical variables that could affect each country individually.

The model for the end-stage liver disease and Child-Pugh score in predicting prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and esophageal variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND/AIM

Esophageal variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent and gravest complications of liver cirrhosis, directly life-threatening. By monitoring certain clinical and laboratory hepatocellular insufficiency parameters (Child-Pugh score), it is possible to determine prognosis in patients who are bleeding and evaluate further therapy. Recently, the Model for the End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been proposed as a tool to predict mortality risk in cirrhotic patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate survival prognosis of cirrhotic patients by the MELD and Child-Pugh scores and to analyze the MELD score prognostic value in patients with both liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated the survival rate of a group of 100 cirrhotic patients of a median age of 57 years. The Child-Pugh score was calculated and the MELD score was computed according to the original formula for each patient. We also analysed clinical and laboratory hepatocellular insufficiency parameters in order to examine their connection with a 15-month survival. The MELD values were correlated with the Child-Pugh scores. The Student's t-test was used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Twenty-two patients died within 15-months followup. Age and gender did not affect survival rate. The Child-Pugh and MELD scores, as well as ascites and encephalopathy significantly differed between the patients who survived and those who died (p < 0.0001). The International Normalized Ratio (INR) values, serum creatinine and bilirubin were significantly higher, and albumin significantly lower in the patients who died (p < 0.0001). The MELD score was significantly higher in the group of patients who died due to esophageal variceal bleeding (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

In cirrhotic patients the MELD score is an excellent survival predictor at least as well as the Child-Pugh score. Increase in the MELD score is associated with decrease in residual liver function. In the group of patients with liver cirrhosis and esophageal variceal bleeding, the MELD score identifies those with a higher intrahospital mortality risk.

Assessment of liver function in acute or chronic liver disease by the methacetin breath test: a tool for decision making in clinical hepatology

Patients suffering from acute or chronic liver disease require on-going assessment of disease progression in terms of the degree of hepatic fibrosis and overall liver impairment. This assessment is pivotal for determining the prognosis and for making decisions about medical treatment and liver transplantation. Currently available methods are either invasive, lack diagnostic accuracy or are limited by technical difficulties such as obesity or biochemical confounders. The metabolic breath test relies on the measurement of tagged metabolites of an organ-specific substrate in the exhaled breath. (13)C-methacetin is metabolized uniquely by the liver, and (13)CO(2) is measured continuously in the exhaled breath. Measuring this liver-specific substrate using molecular correlation spectroscopy provides a rapid, point-of-care, non-invasive method to assess liver function. The use of the (13)C-methacetin breath test (MBT) may provide a powerful tool for clinical hepatologists in decision making at the bedside. This paper reviews recent findings regarding the ability of the point-of-care (13)C-MBT to assess fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatic functional reserve in patients with acute and chronic liver disease.