We need stronger evidence for (or against) hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance

Non-invasive tests for alcohol-associated liver disease

Alcohol consumption is a global phenomenon and a major contributor to alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Detecting individuals at risk of ALD has been challenging, with only a small fraction of patients being identified at early stages compared to other chronic liver diseases. In response to this challenge, non-invasive tests (NITs) have become essential tools for the detection of ALD, offering opportunities for early identification and intervention to mitigate the disease burden. Noninvasive alcohol consumption biomarkers are crucial in estimating individuals' recent alcohol intake, providing valuable insights into their drinking patterns. Various NITs have been investigated for the initial screening of asymptomatic individuals at risk of ALD, as well as for identifying specific stages of the disease. These NITs are applied in 2 main clinical scenarios: population-based stratification for identifying and predicting liver-related symptoms and diagnosing and prognosticating compensated cirrhosis or advanced chronic liver disease in secondary or tertiary care settings. Moreover, NITs play a significant role in the prognostic assessment of patients with various manifestations of ALD, including alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), decompensated cirrhosis, and metabolic-associated and ALD. These tests guide appropriate treatment decisions and predict outcomes. In this review, various NITs for the early detection and monitoring of alcohol consumption were discussed. Additionally, the evaluation of NITs for screening and predicting ALD and liver complications was addressed comprehensively. Future perspectives of NITs for ALD were explored, alongside a thorough discussion of the opportunities and challenges associated with NITs for ALD screening.

Hepatitis B genotypes in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: correlation with clinical course and implications for management

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians in Far North Queensland (FNQ) is greater than twice that of the general Australian population. CHB is common in Torres Strait Islanders diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) - and in Aboriginals with HCC living in the Northern Territory - however, Aboriginals diagnosed with HCC in FNQ very rarely have CHB. The explanation for this apparent disparity is uncertain.

AIMS

To determine the HBV genotypes in the FNQ Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and their correlation with clinical phenotype.

METHODS

We determined the HBV genotype of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians living with CHB in FNQ and correlated this with demographic and clinical findings.

RESULTS

134/197 (68%) enrolled individuals had a sufficient viral load for genotyping. All 40 people with HBV/D genotype had Aboriginal heritage, whereas 85/93 (91%) with HBV/C had Torres Strait Islander heritage (P < 0.0001). Individuals with HBV/D were younger than those with HBV/C (median (interquartile range) age: 43 (39-48) vs 53 (42-66) years, P = 0.0002). However, they were less likely to be HBeAg positive (1/40 (3%) vs 23/93 (25%), P = 0.001). All three HCCs developed in Torres Strait Islanders; two-thirds were infected with HBV/C14; genotyping was not possible in the other individual. All 10 diagnoses of cirrhosis occurred in Torres Strait Islanders, 6/10 were infected with HBV/C14, genotyping was not possible in the other four individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

HBV genotypes in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians in FNQ differ markedly, which could explain the significant differences in the clinical phenotype in the two populations and might be used to inform cost-effective CHB care in the region.

Non-contrast short MRI surveillance for HCC screening: the study protocol of the SMS-HCC prospective multicenter study

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) comprises 75 to 85% of all primary liver cancers. Current guidelines recommend a biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound (US) for high-risk patients. However, due to its low sensitivity for detection of early-stage HCC lesions, there is an urgency for more sensitive surveillance tools. Here, we describe the potential of a short MRI surveillance (SMS) protocol for HCC, including axial T1-weighted in-out phase, fat-saturated T2-weighted, and diffusion-weighted sequences. In this prospective, multicenter, patient cohort study, patients will be recruited from existing HCC surveillance cohorts of six medical centers in The Netherlands. Surveillance patients who undergo biannual US, will be invited for SMS on the same day for 3 years. In case of a suspicious finding on either US or SMS, patients will be invited for a full MRI liver protocol including gadolinium-based contrast agent intravenous injection within 2 weeks. To our knowledge, this will be the first study to perform a head-to-head comparison with a paired US-MRI design. We hypothesize that the sensitivity of SMS for detection of early-stage HCC will be higher than that of US leading to improved survival of surveillance patients through timely HCC diagnosis. Furthermore, we hypothesize that the SMS-HCC protocol will prove cost-effective.Relevance statement The US sensitivity for detecting early-stage HCC has been reported to be less than 50%. We expect that the proposed SMS will detect at least twice as many early-stage HCC lesions and therefore prove to be cost-effective. Key points • The low sensitivity of US necessitates better imaging tools for HCC screening.• This is the first study with a paired US-MRI design.• This design will allow a head-to-head comparison in both diagnostics and patient-acceptance.• We expect that SMS can contribute to a higher survival rate.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Evidence-Based Tailored Approach

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended by professional society guidelines given a consistent association with reduced HCC-related mortality. HCC surveillance should be performed using semiannual abdominal ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, although this combination has suboptimal sensitivity and can miss more than one-third of HCC at an early stage. There are promising emerging blood-based and imaging-based strategies, including abbreviated MRI and biomarker panels; however, these require further validation before routine use in clinical practice. HCC surveillance is underused in clinical practice due to patient-related and provider-related barriers, highlighting a need for interventions to improve surveillance utilization in clinical practice.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in the Detection and Implementation of Biomarkers for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Outlook and Opportunities

Liver cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and its early detection and treatment are crucial for improving morbidity and mortality. Biomarkers have the potential to facilitate the early diagnosis and management of liver cancer, but identifying and implementing effective biomarkers remains a major challenge. In recent years, artificial intelligence has emerged as a promising tool in the cancer sphere, and recent literature suggests that it is very promising in facilitating biomarker use in liver cancer. This review provides an overview of the status of AI-based biomarker research in liver cancer, with a focus on the detection and implementation of biomarkers for risk prediction, diagnosis, staging, prognostication, prediction of treatment response, and recurrence of liver cancers.

RAD54L promotes progression of hepatocellular carcinoma via the homologous recombination repair pathway

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant tumor with high incidence worldwide. The underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. The DNA metabolic process of homologous recombination repair (HRR) has been linked to a high probability of tumorigenesis and drug resistance. This study aimed to determine the role of HRR in HCC and identify critical HRR-related genes that affect tumorigenesis and prognosis. A total of 613 tumor and 252 para-carcinoma tissue samples were collected from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) to obtain differentially expressed genes (DEGs). HRR-related genes were assessed using gene enrichment and pathway analyses. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method in the Gene Expression Profiling Interactive Analysis portal. The levels of RAD54L in the HRR pathway were detected by RT-qPCR and western blotting in para-carcinoma and HCC tissues and in L02 normal human liver cells and Huh7 HCC cells. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was performed on the clinical specimens to determine the connection between gene expression and clinical features. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that the HRR pathway was enriched in HCC tissues. Upregulation of HRR pathway DEGs in HCC tissues was positively correlated with tumor pathological staging and negatively associated with patient overall survival. RAD54B, RAD54L, and EME1 genes in the HRR pathway were screened as markers for predicting HCC prognosis. RT-qPCR identified RAD54L as the most significantly expressed of the three genes. Western blotting and IHC quantitative analyses further demonstrated that RAD54L protein levels were higher in HCC tissues. IHC analysis of 39 pairs of HCC and para-carcinoma tissue samples also revealed an association between RAD54L and Edmondson-Steiner grade and the proliferation-related gene Ki67. The collective findings positively correlate RAD54L in the HRR signaling pathway with HCC staging and implicate RAD54L as a marker to predict HCC progression.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm

AIMS

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata.

METHODS

Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging).

RESULTS

22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38).

CONCLUSION

Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

Unrecognized liver cirrhosis is common and associated with worse survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: A nationwide cohort study of 3473 patients

BACKGROUND

Data on unrecognized liver cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are derived mainly from cohorts with a risk of selection bias.

OBJECTIVES

In a population-based cohort study we aimed to determine the proportion, characteristics, and prognosis of HCC in patients with unrecognized cirrhosis.

METHODS

Using the Swedish quality register for liver cancer and other nationwide registers, we identified all adults with HCC in Sweden between 2012 and 2018 (n = 3,473).

RESULTS

The final study cohort comprised 2670 patients with established cirrhosis, of which 1033 (39%) had unrecognized cirrhosis at HCC diagnosis. These patients were more often male, older, and had larger tumors, multinodular cancer, portal vein thrombosis, and extrahepatic metastasis compared to patients with known cirrhosis with HCC and under surveillance (34%). Compared to surveilled patients, those with unrecognized cirrhosis had worse median survival (0.89 years, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78-1.01 vs. 3.79 years, 95%CI = 3.19-4.39), and an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.36 (95%CI = 2.09-2.66). Patients with cirrhosis but not under surveillance (27%) and patients with unrecognized cirrhosis had similar characteristics, such as equal proportions diagnosed at late stage (79%).

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis is often not recognized in patients with HCC. Unrecognized cirrhosis is associated with more advanced HCC at diagnosis and a worse prognosis. More efforts are needed to diagnose cirrhosis at an earlier stage.

The development of a cSMART-based integrated model for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) generally arises from a background of liver cirrhosis (LC). Patients with cirrhosis and suspected HCC are recommended to undergo serum biomarker tests and imaging diagnostic evaluation. However, the performance of routine diagnostic methods in detecting early HCC remains unpromising.

METHODS

Here, we conducted a large-scale, multicenter study of 1675 participants including 490 healthy controls, 577 LC patients, and 608 HCC patients from nine clinical centers across nine provinces of China, profiled gene mutation signatures of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) using Circulating Single-Molecule Amplification and Resequencing Technology (cSMART) through detecting 931 mutation sites across 21 genes.

RESULTS

An integrated diagnostic model called "Combined method" was developed by combining three mutation sites and three serum biomarkers. Combined method outperformed AFP in the diagnosis of HCC, especially early HCC, with sensitivities of 81.25% for all stages and 66.67% for early HCC, respectively. Importantly, the integrated model exhibited high accuracy in differentiating AFP-negative, AFP-L3-negative, and PIVKA-II-negative HCCs from LCs.

Epidemiology of liver cirrhosis and associated complications: Current knowledge and future directions

Cirrhosis causes a heavy global burden. In this review, we summarized up-to-date epidemiological features of cirrhosis and its complications. Recent epidemiological studies reported an increase in the prevalence of cirrhosis in 2017 compared to in 1990 in both men and women, with 5.2 million cases of cirrhosis and chronic liver disease occurring in 2017. Cirrhosis caused 1.48 million deaths in 2019, an increase of 8.1% compared to 2017. Disability-adjusted life-years due to cirrhosis ranked 16th among all diseases and 7th in people aged 50-74 years in 2019. The global burden of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis is decreasing, while the burden of cirrhosis due to alcohol and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing rapidly. We described the current epidemiology of the major complications of cirrhosis, including ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, renal disorders, and infections. We also summarized the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis. In the future, NAFLD-related cirrhosis will likely become more common due to the prevalence of metabolic diseases such as obesity and diabetes, and the prevalence of alcohol-induced cirrhosis is increasing. This altered epidemiology should be clinically noted, and relevant interventions should be undertaken.

Evaluation of the aMAP score for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: a realistic opportunity to risk stratify

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aMAP score is a model that predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis. Its performance in a 'real world' surveillance setting has not yet been ascertained.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We had access to a cohort of 3473 individuals enrolled in a rigorously implemented and prospectively accrued surveillance programme (patients undergoing regular ultrasound and biomarker examination between 1998 and 2021). During this period 445 had HCC detected. Of these, 77.8% had early stage disease (within Milan criteria), permitting potentially curative therapy to be implemented in nearly 70% of cases. We applied the recently developed aMAP score to classify patients according to their initial aMAP score in to low, medium and high-risk groups as proposed in the original publication. The performance of the aMAP score was assessed according to the concordance-index and calibration (i.e. agreement between observed and predicted risk). Allowance was made for competing causes of death.

RESULTS

The aMAP score achieved an overall C-index of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79-0.82) consistent with the initial report and was unaffected by allowance for competing causes of death. Sub-group analysis showed that the results did not change significantly according to gender, or aetiology. However, aMAP discrimination was greater for younger individuals (versus older individuals), and also for individuals without cirrhosis. The HCC incidence rate was 0.98, 7.05 and 29.1 events per 1000 person-years in the low-, moderate- and high-risk aMAP groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from this 'real-world' cohort demonstrate that risk stratification is a realistic prospect and that identification of a subgroup of chronic liver disease patients who have a very low risk of HCC is feasible.

A Novel Cuproptosis-Related Signature Identified DLAT as a Prognostic Biomarker for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of liver cancers, with more than a million cases per year by 2025. Cuproptosis is a novel form of programmed cell death, and is caused by mitochondrial lipoylation and destabilization of iron-sulfur proteins triggered by copper, which was considered as a key player in various biological processes. However, the roles of cuproptosis-related genes (CRGs) in HCC remain largely unknown.

METHODS

In the present study, we constructed and validated a four CRGs signature for predicting the overall survival (OS) of HCC patients in both The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) databases.

RESULTS

Patients with high CRGs risk score showed shorter OS than those with low CRGs risk score. Functional analysis suggested that the CRGs-based prognostic signature was associated with metabolism remodeling which facilitated liver cancer progression. In addition, reduced infiltration of CD8⁺ T cells and increased macrophages were found in HCCs from patients with high CRGs risk score. As one of the four CRGs, higher expression of dihydrolipoamide S-acetyltransferase (DLAT) was accompanied by higher expression of program death ligand 1 (PD-L1) in HCC. Further, we confirmed that DLAT was up-regulated and correlated with poor prognosis in a clinical HCC cohort.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our study constructed a four CRGs signature prognostic model and identified DLAT as an independent prognostic factor for HCC, thus providing new clues for understanding the association between cuproptosis and HCC.

Circulating biomarkers in the diagnosis and management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent and lethal causes of cancer-related death worldwide. The treatment of HCC remains challenging and is largely predicated on early diagnosis. Surveillance of high-risk groups using abdominal ultrasonography, with or without serum analysis of α-fetoprotein (AFP), can permit detection of early, potentially curable tumours, but is limited by its insensitivity. Reviewed here are two current approaches that aim to address this limitation. The first is to use old re-emerged empirically derived biomarkers such as AFP, now applied within statistical models. The second is to use circulating nucleic acid biomarkers, which include cell-free DNA (for example, circulating tumour DNA, cell-free mitochondrial DNA and cell-free viral DNA) and cell-free RNA, applying modern molecular biology-based technologies and machine learning techniques closely allied to the underlying biology of cancer. Taken together, these approaches are likely to be complementary. Both hold considerable promise for achieving earlier diagnosis as well as offering additional functionalities including improved monitoring of therapy and prediction of response thereto.

HCC incidence after hepatitis C cure among patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HCV cure reduces but does not eliminate the risk of HCC. HCC surveillance is recommended in populations where the incidence exceeds 1.5% per year. In cirrhosis, HCC surveillance should continue after HCV cure, although it is uncertain if this should be indefinite. For patients with advanced fibrosis (F3), guidelines are inconsistent in their recommendations. We evaluated the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This systematic review and meta-analysis identified 44 studies (107,548 person-years of follow-up) assessing the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC was 2.1 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.9-2.4) among patients with cirrhosis and 0.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.3-0.7) among patients with F3 fibrosis. In a meta-regression analysis among patients with cirrhosis, older age (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] per 10-year increase in mean/median age, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.73) and prior decompensation (aRR per 10% increase in the proportion of patients with prior decompensation, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12) were associated with an increased incidence of HCC. Longer follow-up after HCV cure was associated with a decreased incidence of HCC (aRR per year increase in mean/median follow-up, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis, the incidence of HCC decreases over time after HCV cure and is lowest in patients with younger age and compensated cirrhosis. The substantially lower incidence in F3 fibrosis is below the recommended threshold for cost-effective screening. The results should encourage the development of validated predictive models that better identify at-risk individuals, especially among patients with F3 fibrosis.

Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma: roadmap for improvement

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a poor prognosis, related, in part, to frequent late-stage diagnosis. Improved implementation of effective HCC surveillance is critical to reduce HCC mortality.

AREAS COVERED

We performed a targeted literature review to identify intervention targets for improving HCC surveillance effectiveness, including enriched risk stratification tools, improved surveillance tools with higher accuracy for early HCC detection, and increasing surveillance adherence.

EXPERT OPINION

HCC surveillance has been demonstrated to be efficacious in several cohort studies but has lower surveillance effectiveness in clinical practice. HCC surveillance is currently recommended in all patients with cirrhosis, and improved risk stratification using clinical risk scores, genetic scores, and novel biomarkers are important to move from a 'one-size-fits-all' strategy to one more aligned with values of precision medicine. Current surveillance modalities, ultrasound, and AFP, miss over one-third of HCC at an early stage and are associated with potential surveillance harms, underscoring a need for alternative surveillance strategies with higher accuracy. MRI- and biomarker-based surveillance strategies have promising early data in phase II studies but require validation in phase III cohorts before routine use in practice. Finally, surveillance is underused in clinical practice, highlighting a need for intervention strategies to increase utilization.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: current status and future perspectives for improvement

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a globally relevant medical problem. Fortunately, risk factors for this tumor have been identified, and surveillance protocols developed. Patients with liver cirrhosis have the highest risk of developing HCC and have historically been included in surveillance programs. Special categories have also emerged in recent years, especially patients with eradicated HCV infection or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Novel serum biomarkers and magnetic resonance imaging protocols are currently being proposed to refine existing surveillance protocols.

AREAS COVERED

We discuss the rationale of surveillance programs for HCC and report the most recent recommendations from international guidelines about this topic. Gray areas, such as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and the role of intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma, are also discussed.

EXPERT OPINION

Surveillance is recognized as a tool to favor early diagnosis of HCC, access to curative treatment, and increase survival, even if the supporting evidence is mainly based on observational studies. As new randomized clinical trials are difficult to propose, future challenges will include optimizing implementation in the primary care setting and a more personalized approach, balancing the opportunities and risks of overdiagnosis of novel techniques and biomarkers.

A scoring system for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in alcoholic cirrhosis

The role of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is being questioned in alcoholic cirrhosis because of the relative low HCC risk. This study aimed to assess the risk and predictors of HCC in Korean patients with alcoholic cirrhosis by using competing risk analysis. A total of 745 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis were recruited at a university-affiliated hospital in Korea and randomly assigned to either the derivation (n = 507) and validation (n = 238) cohort. Subdistribution hazards model of Fine and Gray was used with deaths and liver transplantation treated as competing risks. Death records were confirmed from Korean government databases. A nomogram was developed to calculate the Alcohol-associated Liver Cancer Estimation (ALICE) score. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 15.3 and 13.3% at 10 years for derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, alpha-fetoprotein level, and albumin level were identified as independent predictors of HCC and incorporated in the ALICE score, which discriminated low, intermediate, and high risk for HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis at the cut-off of 60 and 100. The risk of HCC can be stratified by using a combination of readily available clinical parameters (age, AFP level, and albumin level) in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk after viral response in hepatitis C virus-advanced fibrosis: Who to screen and for how long?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection is associated with fibrosis progression, end-stage liver complications and HCC. Not surprisingly, HCV infection is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. After sustained virological response (SVR), the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma is not completely eliminated in patients with established cirrhosis or with advanced fibrosis. Therefore, lifelong surveillance is currently recommended. This strategy is likely not universally cost-effective and harmless, considering that not all patients with advanced fibrosis have the same risk of developing HCC. Factors related to the severity of liver disease and its potential to improve after SVR, the molecular and epigenetic changes that occur during infection and other associated comorbidities might account for different risk levels and are likely essential for identifying patients who would benefit from screening programs after SVR. Efforts to develop predictive models and risk calculators, biomarkers and genetic panels and even deep learning models to estimate the individual risk of HCC have been made in the direct-acting antiviral agents era, when thousands of patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis have reached SVR. These tools could help to identify patients with very low HCC risk in whom surveillance might not be justified. In this review, factors affecting the probability of HCC development after SVR, the benefits and risks of surveillance, suggested strategies to estimate individualized HCC risk and the current evidence to recommend lifelong surveillance are discussed.