Seasonality and community interventions in a mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission

Consumption of antibiotics in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017

Objectives

Data on antibiotic consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/EEA countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of the main antibiotic groups.

Methods

For the period 1997–2017, data on consumption of antibiotics, i.e. antibacterials for systemic use (ATC group J01), in the community, aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Antibiotic consumption was analysed based on ATC-3 groups, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.

Results

In 2017, antibiotic consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor 3.6 between countries with the highest (Greece) and the lowest (the Netherlands) consumption. Antibiotic consumption in the EU/EEA did not change significantly over time. Antibiotic consumption showed a significant seasonal variation, which decreased over time. The number of DDD per package significantly increased over time. The proportional consumption of sulphonamides and trimethoprim (J01E) relative to other groups significantly decreased over time, while the proportional consumption of other antibacterials (J01X) relative to other groups significantly increased over time.

Conclusions

Overall, antibiotic consumption in the community in the EU/EEA did not change during 1997–2017, while seasonal variation consistently decreased over time. The number of DDD per package increased during 1997–2017.

Clostridioides (Clostridium) difficile-associated disease: Epidemiology among patients in a general hospital in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Clostridioides (Clostridium) difficile infection (CDI) is an important health care-associated infection with variable incidence and prevalence across the globe. There are limited data from Saudi Arabia on the epidemiology of C. difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD). In this study, we present the epidemiology and incidence of CDAD in a hospital in Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

This study included all stool samples from 2001 to 2018 that were tested for C. difficile. C. difficile toxins were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 2001-2012 and the diagnosis was based on PCR testing (2013-2018).

RESULTS

There was a total of 577 distinctive episodes of CDAD representing 5.2% of 10,995 tested stool samples with an annual positivity rate of 0.9%-11.8%. Of all CDAD cases, there were 230 (39.9%) community associated-CDAD, 105 (18.2%) community onset-health care facility associated disease, and 242 (42%) health care facility onset health care facility-associated disease (HCFO-HCFAD). There was a trend of increasing percentage of community onset-health care facility associated disease cases from 17% in 2001 to 20% in 2018 of all cases, and a trend towards less cases of community associated-CDAD from 85% to 50% over time. However, the percentages of HCFO-HCFAD percentages remained relatively stable. The rate of HCFO-HCFAD per 1,000 patient-days increased from 0.009 to 0.22 from 2001 to 2018, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of CDAD was 5.15% among all tested samples and that there is a large proportion of community associated-CDAD. The findings parallel the data from developed countries and deserve further studies in the risk factors for community-associated CDAD.

Some simple rules for estimating reproduction numbers in the presence of reservoir exposure or imported cases

For many diseases, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a threshold parameter for disease extinction or survival in isolated populations. However no human population is fully isolated from other human or animal populations. We use compartmental models to derive simple rules for the basic reproduction number in populations where an endemic disease is sustained by a combination of local transmission within the population and exposure from some other source: either a reservoir exposure or imported cases. We introduce the idea of a reservoir-driven or importation-driven disease: diseases that would become extinct in the population of interest without reservoir exposure or imported cases (since R0<1), but nevertheless may be sufficiently transmissible that many or most infections are acquired from humans in that population. We show that in the simplest case, R0<1 if and only if the proportion of infections acquired from the external source exceeds the disease prevalence and explore how population heterogeneity and the interactions of multiple strains affect this rule. We apply these rules in two case studies of Clostridium difficile infection and colonisation: C. difficile in the hospital setting accounting for imported cases, and C. difficile in the general human population accounting for exposure to animal reservoirs. We demonstrate that even the hospital-adapted, highly-transmissible NAP1/RT027 strain of C. difficile had a reproduction number <1 in a landmark study of hospitalised patients and therefore was sustained by colonised and infected admissions to the study hospital. We argue that C. difficile should be considered reservoir-driven if as little as 13.0% of transmission can be attributed to animal reservoirs.