SWAT ungauged: Water quality modeling in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Multi-Facet analysis of analytical and numerical models to resolve sustainable artificial recharge rates in unconfined aquifers

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) has emerged as a potential solution to resolve water insecurity, globally. However, integrated studies quantifying the surplus source water, suitable recharge sites and safe recharge capacity is limited. In this study, a novel methodology is presented to quantify transient injection rates in unconfined aquifers and generate MAR suitability maps based on estimated surplus water and permissible aquifer recharge capacity (PARC). Subbasin scale monthly surplus surface runoff was estimated at 75% dependability using a SWAT model. A linear regression model based on numerical solution was used to capture the aquifer response to injection and to calculate PARC values at subbasin level. The available surplus runoff and PARC values was then used to determine the suitable site and recharge rate during MAR operation. The developed methodology was applied in the semi-arid region of Lower Betwa River Basin (LBRB), India. The estimated surplus runoff was generally confined to the monsoon months of June to September and exhibited spatial heterogeneity with an average runoff rate of 5000 m3/d in 85% of the LBRB. Analysis of the PARC results revealed that thick alluvial aquifers had large permissible storage capacity and about 50% of the LBRB was capable of storing over 3500 m3/d of water. This study revealed that sufficient surplus runoff was generated in the LBRB, but it lacked the adequate safe aquifer storage capacity to conserve it. A total 65 subbasins was identified as the best suited sites for MAR which had enough surplus water and storage capacity to suffice 20% of the total water demand in the LBRB. The developed methodology was computationally efficient, could augment the field problem of determining scheduled recharge rates and could be used as a decision-making tool in artificial recharge projects.

Simulated nitrous oxide emissions from multiple agroecosystems in the U.S. Corn Belt using the modified SWAT-C model

Agriculture is a major source of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions into the atmosphere. However, assessing the impacts of agricultural conservation practices, land use change, and climate adaptation measures on N2O emissions at a large scale is a challenge for process-based model applications. Here, we integrated six N2O emission algorithms for the nitrification processes and seven N2O emission algorithms for the denitrification process into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Carbon (SWAT-C). We evaluated the different combinations of methods in simulating N2O emissions under corn (Zea mays L.) production systems with various conservation practices, including fertilization, tillage, and crop rotation (represented by 14 experimental treatments and 83 treatment-years) at five experimental sites across the U.S. Midwest. The SWAT-C model exhibited wide variability in simulating daily average N2O emissions across treatment-years with different method configurations, as indicated by the ranges of R2, NSE, and BIAS (0.04-0.68, -1.78-0.60, and -0.94-0.001, respectively). Our results indicate that the denitrification process has a stronger impact on N2O emissions than the nitrification process. The best performing N2O emission algorithms are those rooted in the CENTURY model, which considers soil pH and respiration effects that were overlooked by other algorithms. The optimal N2O emission algorithm explained about 63% of the variability of annual average N2O emissions, with NSE and BIAS of 0.60 and -0.033, respectively. The model can reasonably represent the impacts of agricultural conservation practices on N2O emissions. We anticipate that the improved SWAT-C model, with its flexible configurations and robust modeling and assessment capabilities, will provide a valuable tool for studying and managing N2O emissions from agroecosystems.

Impact assessment of on-site swine wastewater treatment facilities on spatiotemporal variations of nitrogen loading in an intensive livestock farming watershed

Excess nitrogen (N) resulting from human activity causes environmental issues, including eutrophication in agricultural watersheds with intensive livestock farming. Among the N sources in Korea, on-site swine wastewater treatment facilities (OSWTFs) tend to be densely distributed in watersheds with intensive livestock farming. Therefore, it is critical to sustainably manage livestock excreta. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the effects of various pollution sources, including OSWTFs, on N loads in rivers in the Cheongmi watershed, which is an intensive livestock farming and agricultural area in Korea. The simulated hydrological and water quality outputs were calibrated and validated for 2012-2019 using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2 in the SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program. The hydrological simulations agreed with the observations, with a correlation coefficient (R²) of ≥ 0.8 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.67-0.86. The simulated total N (TN) was also strongly correlated with the observed monthly average loading (R², 0.36-0.73) and annual average concentration (R² ≥ 0.5), demonstrating the reliability of the model constructed herein. A simulation of management scenarios indicates that, if the permissible N concentration in effluent from OSWTFs was reduced to 60 mg N/L, the TN concentrations in rivers would decrease by up to 50%. The findings of this study indicate that more stringent effluent water quality standards are required for OSWTFs to protect water quality and aquatic ecosystems in intensive swine farming watersheds.

The Effects of Agricultural Conservation Practices on the Small Water Cycle: From the Farm- to the Management-Scale

Reinforcing the small water cycle is considered to be a holistic approach to both water resource and landscape management. In an agricultural landscape, this can be accomplished by incorporating agricultural conservation practices; their incorporation can reduce surface runoff, increase infiltration, and increase the water holding capacity of a soil. Some typical agricultural conservation practices include: conservation tillage, contour farming, residue incorporation, and reducing field sizes; these efforts aim to keep both water and soil in the landscape. The incorporation of such practices has been extensively studied over the last 40 years. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model two basins in the Czech Republic (one at the farm-scale and a second at the management-scale) to determine the effects of agriculture conservation practice adoption at each scale. We found that at the farm-scale, contour farming was the most effective practice at reinforcing the small water cycle, followed by residue incorporation. At the management-scale, we found that the widespread incorporation of agricultural conservation practices significantly reinforced the small water cycle, but the relative scale and spatial distribution of their incorporation were not reflected in the SWAT scenario analysis. Individual farmers should be incentivized to adopt agricultural conservation practices, as these practices can have great effects at the farm-scale. At the management-scale, the spatial distribution of agricultural conservation practice adoption was not significant in this study, implying that managers should incentivize any adoption of such practices and that the small water cycle would be reinforced regardless.

Pronounced Increases in Future Soil Erosion and Sediment Deposition as Influenced by Freeze-Thaw Cycles in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Soil erosion and sediment deposition are relevant to multiple important ecosystem services essential for natural and human systems. The present study aims to project future soil erosion and sediment deposition in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) using climate projections by five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. To understand the importance of freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) for soil erosion and sediment deposition estimation with climate change, this study compared two Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models with different representations of the FTCs, with the standard SWAT using a simple regression method and SWAT-FT employing a physically based method. Modeling results show that future climate change can pronouncedly intensify soil erosion and increase sediment deposition, and the impacts are sensitive to how FTCs are represented in the model. The standard SWAT projected an increase in soil erosion by nearly 40% by the end of the 21st century, which is much lower than the projected over 65% increase in soil erosion by SWAT-FT. For sediment deposition, the projected percent changes by the standard SWAT and SWAT-FT also deviate from each other (i.e., about 70% by the standard SWAT vs about 120% by SWAT-FT). Overall, these results demonstrate the important roles of FTCs in projecting future soil erosion and sediment deposition and underline the need to consider the effects of conservation practices on FTCs to realistically assess the effectiveness of those measures.

Hydrologic Analysis of an Intensively Irrigated Area in Southern Peru Using a Crop-Field Scale Framework

Majes is one of the largest agricultural areas in the Arequipa region (southern Peru). Low seasonal precipitation and increasing water demands for agricultural irrigation, industry, and human consumption have made water supply projections a major concern. Agricultural development is becoming more extensive in this dry, sunny climate where crops can be grown year-round. However, because this type of project usually involves significant perturbations to the regional water cycle, understanding the effects of irrigation on local hydrology is crucial. Based on the watershed-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), this investigation focuses on the impacts of intensive irrigation on hydrological responses in the Majes region. This study is unique because we allow for crop-field scale input within our regional-scale model to provide information at this smaller scale, which is important to inform local stakeholders and decision makers. Each hydrologic response unit (HRU) was generated to represent an individual crop field, so that management practices could be applied according to real-world scenarios. The management file of each HRU was modified to include different operation schedules for crop rotation, irrigation, harvest, and tillage. The model was calibrated and validated against monthly observed stream discharge during the 2009–2020 period. Additionally, evapotranspiration, irrigation water volume, and daily stream discharge downstream of the local river (Siguas) were used to verify the model performance. A total of 49 sub-basins and 4222 HRUs were created, with 3000 HRUs designated to represent individual crop fields. The simulation results revealed that infiltration from agricultural activities in Majes represents the majority of annual groundwater return flow, which makes a substantial contribution to streamflow downstream of the Siguas River. Simulations also suggested that groundwater flow processes and the interactions between surface and groundwater have a major impact on the water balance of the study area. Additionally, climate variability had a higher impact on surface runoff than on groundwater return flow, illustrating that the groundwater component in the study area is important for future water resources resiliency under expected climate change scenarios. Finally, there is a need to perform a follow-up implementation to provide a guideline for decision-makers to assess future sustainable water resources management under varying climatic conditions for this arid irrigated system.

Farm-Scale Biofuel Crop Adoption and Its Effects on In-Basin Water Balance

In the face of future climate change, Europe has encouraged the adoption of biofuel crops by its farmers. Such land-use changes can have significant impacts on the water balance and hydrological behavior of a system. While the heavy pesticide use associated with biofuel crops has been extensively studied, the water balance impacts of these crops have been far less studied. We conducted scenario analyses using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to determine the effects of farm-scale biofuel crop adoption (rapeseed) on a basin’s water balance. We found that rapeseed adoption does not support the goal of developing a sustainable agricultural landscape in the Czech Republic. The adoption of rapeseed also had disproportionate effects on a basin’s water balance depending on its location in the basin. Additionally, discharge (especially surface runoff ratios), evapotranspiration, and available soil water content display significant shifts in the rapeseed adoption scenarios.

Nitrate loading projection is sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle representation

Climate change can have substantial impacts on nitrogen runoff, which is a major cause of eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia in freshwaters and coastal regions. We examined responses of nitrate loading to climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) with an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool with physically based Freeze-Thaw cycle representation (SWAT-FT), as compared with the original SWAT model that employs an empirical equation. Driven by future climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1960 to 2099 under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, we analyzed changes in riverine nitrate loadings, as well as terrestrial surface and subsurface contributions of the UMRB in the 21st century relative to the baseline period of 1960-1999. By the end of the 21st century, the original SWAT model predicted about a 50% increase in riverine nitrate loadings which is nearly twice as much as that estimated by SWAT-FT (ca. 25%). Such a large difference in projected nitrate changes can potentially mislead mitigation strategies that aim to reduce nitrogen runoff from the UMRB. Further analysis shows that the difference between the original SWAT model and SWAT-FT led to substantial discrepancies in the spatial distribution of surface and subsurface nitrate loadings in the UMRB. In general, SWAT-FT predicted more nitrate leaching for northwestern parts of the UMRB which are more sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle, mainly because SWAT-FT simulated less frequent frozen soils. This study highlights the importance of using physically based freeze-thaw cycle representation in water quality modeling. Design of future nitrogen runoff reduction strategies should include careful assessment of effects that land management has on the freeze-thaw cycles to provide reliable projection of water quality under climate change.

Analysis of alternative climate datasets and evapotranspiration methods for the Upper Mississippi River Basin using SWAT within HAWQS

This study reports the application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) on-line platform, for the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The UMRB is an important ecosystem located in the north central U.S. that is experiencing a range of ecological stresses. Specifically, testing of SWAT was performed for: (1) Hargreaves (HG) and Penman-Monteith (PM) PET methods, and (2) Livneh, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate datasets. The Livneh-PM combination resulted in the highest average annual water yield of 380.6 mm versus the lowest estimated water yield of 193.9 mm for the Livneh-HG combination, in response to 23-year uncalibrated simulations. Higher annual ET and PET values were predicted with HG method versus the PM method for all three weather datasets in response to the uncalibrated simulations, due primarily to higher HG-based estimates during the growing season. Based on these results, it was found that the HG method is the preferred PET option for the UMRB. Initial calibration of SWAT was performed using the Livneh data and HG method for three Mississippi River main stem gauge sites, which was followed by spatial validation at 10 other gauge sites located within the UMRB stream network. Overall satisfactory results were found for the calibration and validation gauge sites, with the majority of R2 values ranging between 0.61 and 0.82, Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE) values ranging between 0.50 and 0.79, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) values ranging between 0.61 and 0.84. The results of an additional experimental suite of six scenarios, which represented different combinations of climate data sets and calibrated parameters, revealed that suggested statistical criteria were again satisfied by the different scenario combinations. Overall, the PRISM data exhibited the strongest reliability for the UMRB.