Stopping the HPV vaccine crisis in Japan: Quantifying the benefits and risks of HPV vaccination in quality-adjusted life-years for appropriate decision-making

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for adolescent girls in Japan: A comparison of 2-valent, 4-valent, and 9-valent HPV vaccines with consideration of cross-protection

OBJECTIVE

In April 2023, the Japanese Health Ministry panel approved the inclusion of the 9-valent human papillomavirus (9vHPV) vaccine in the National Immunization Program, alongside the 2-valent (2vHPV) and 4-valent HPV (4vHPV) vaccines. In response to this, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of these three vaccines for routine immunization of girls aged 12-16 in Japan, considering the cross-protection of 2vHPV and 4vHPV vaccines.

METHODS

We constructed an age-structured mathematical model for HPV transmission, aiming to quantify the economic and epidemiological effects of various HPV vaccination strategies over a 70-year period in Japan. We determined incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each strategy, applying a 3% annual discount. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of our model results, with all evaluations done in 2023.

RESULTS

Our projections indicate that the HPV vaccination program in Japan will significantly reduce the incidence of HPV-related diseases. All HPV vaccination strategies, using the 2vHPV, 4vHPV, and 9vHPV vaccines, were found to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of ¥971,447/QALY, ¥1,237,297/QALY, and ¥742,084/QALY, respectively. Direct comparisons between vaccines demonstrated that the 9vHPV vaccination was more cost-effective than the 2vHPV vaccination, whereas 4vHPV vaccination was dominated by 2vHPV vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study validates the cost-effectiveness of implementing the 9vHPV vaccine as the primary option over the 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccine for girls in Japan. These findings underscore the need to improve the acceptance rate and coverage of HPV vaccinations in the country.

A survey of healthcare workers’ recommendations about human papillomavirus vaccination

Purpose

The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is safe and effective for preventing HPV-related diseases. However, HPV vaccination rates in Japan are low because the “Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare” had stopped recommending vaccination. We assessed healthcare workers’ (HCWs) current recommendations regarding the HPV vaccine and how the provision of information about HPV vaccination affected their recommendations.

Materials and Methods

A survey was conducted among nurses and physicians in Nara prefecture from March 2021 to July 2021. The questionnaire asked about their understanding, recommendations, and opinions regarding HPV vaccination. Before answering the last two questions (optional), the HCWs read evidence-based information quantifying the risks and benefits of HPV vaccination.

Results

A total of 441 HCWs completed the questionnaire. Only 19% of HCWs always recommended HPV vaccination for girls aged 12–16 years. The evidence-based information significantly improved the percentage of HCWs who would “always recommend” vaccination.

Conclusion

This study showed that the proportion of HCWs who recommend HPV vaccination to adolescent girls remains low in Japan. However, we found that evidence-based information describing the causal relationship between adverse events and vaccination, quantifying the risks and benefits, noting the importance of HCW communications with families, and reporting the recommendations of national societies, might increase HCWs’ recommendations for HPV vaccination.

Risk-benefit analysis of 9-valent HPV vaccination for adolescent boys from an individual perspective

Japan recently approved quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for males, but 9-valent vaccine is only approved for females. Given the low female vaccination rate due to a concern of adverse events in Japan, quantifying the risk and benefit of the HPV vaccination for male may help the decision making to vaccinate adolescent boys in Japan. Using quality-adjusted life years, the risk-benefit ratio for an adolescent boy to get the 9-valent HPV vaccination was calculated. The male HPV vaccination reduced the QALY gain due to head and neck cancer, anal cancer, penile cancer, genital warts and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis by 401.63, 20.38, 9.40, 28.79 and 69.13/100,000 vaccinated persons, respectively. The total risk of the vaccination was 11.85. The risk-benefit ratio for a 12-year old boy to receive the HPV vaccination series is calculated as 0.022 (the benefit-risk ratio 44.67). In the sensitivity analysis the risk-benefit ratio ranged from 0.0001 to 0.11. for all scenarios. The much larger benefit compared with the risk for the male HPV vaccination was observed from an individual perspective. The result supports the inclusion of sex-neutral HPV vaccination into the national immunization program as well as the decision making for adolescent boys to get the vaccination.

Close the gap for routine mumps vaccination in Japan

Mumps is a vaccine-preventable disease. Because the mumps vaccine can cause aseptic meningitis in rare cases, this vaccine is not routine in Japan. This has led to low vaccine coverage and severe disease burden in Japan. The present review summarizes mumps epidemiology and vaccination and discusses effective future strategies to mitigate the current disease burden of mumps in Japan. Although a recent study reported that mumps vaccine coverage rates are improving in Japan, current coverage rates are far below the optimal rate to suppress the ongoing epidemic, which has caused an average annual financial loss of 85 billion JPY between 2000 and 2016. Recent reports have demonstrated a much lower incidence of vaccine-induced aseptic meningitis in newly developed vaccines, especially when administered at 1 year of age. Cost-effectiveness studies suggest that routinization of the currently distributed domestic vaccine would be highly cost-effective. In addition, questionnaire surveillance data suggest that the majority of the Japanese population accepts the nominal risk of the vaccine when the proper information is provided. Finally, there are some successful programs in Japan that have attained high vaccine coverage rates with financial support from local governments. Taken together, these data suggest that the mumps vaccine should be immediately included in routine vaccines in Japan.

The estimated impact of decreased childhood vaccination due to COVID-19 using a dynamic transmission model of mumps in Japan

The exact impact of the decline in childhood vaccination coverage during COVID-19 outbreak has not been estimated for any vaccine-preventable diseases. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of decreased mumps vaccination due to COVID-19 on the disease burden of mumps in Japan. Using a previously validated dynamic transmission model of mumps infection in Japan, the incidence rate of mumps over the next 30 y since July 2020 was estimated. The estimated average incidences were 269.1, 302.0, and 455.4/100,000 person-years in rapid recovery, slow recovery, and permanent decline scenarios. Compared with the rapid recovery scenario, the incremental number of mumps cases, total costs, and QALYs loss over the next 30 y were 6.53 million cases, 2.63 billion USD, and 49,246 for the permanent decline scenario, respectively. In conclusion, the persistent decline of mumps vaccination rate as an impact of COVID-19 causes a significant incremental disease burden of mumps, which is consistent irrespective of the possible decline of transmission rate of mumps infection, unless the rapid recovery of coverage rate is achieved. The immediate measures to advocate the vaccination program is essential to mitigate the incremental disease burden in the COVID-19 period.

How to recover lost vaccine acceptance? A multi-center survey on HPV vaccine acceptance in Japan

BACKGROUND

The plummeting acceptance rate of the HPV vaccine in Japan is one of the most disappointing vaccine-related events in recent times. Since 2013, the national HPV vaccine coverage rate fell from more than 70% to less than 1%. This survey investigated parental HPV vaccine acceptance and the factors that influence it.

METHODS

A multi-center survey was conducted in eight hospitals in Nara prefecture, Japan, from July 2019 to March 2020. Parents were asked to answer a series of questions in a survey that included information on the HPV vaccine.

RESULTS

Among the 1884 parents who answered the questionnaire, 21.8% indicated that they had accepted the HPV vaccine even before reading the information provided in the questionnaire. The overall acceptance rate after everyone had read the information increased to 50.2% (p < 0.001). Among those who still did not accept the vaccine after reading the information (N = 925), 26.7% indicated that they might change their mind if more vaccine safety reports were to appear in the mass media; other potentially influencing factors were direct communication from health care providers (35.1%), a recommendation by government (19.5%), and peer behavior (16.8%).

CONCLUSION

The study showed that providing appropriate medical information significantly improves HPV vaccine acceptance. To reverse the loss of HPV vaccine acceptance in Japan, a multi-discipline approach that includes the mass media, health care providers, the government and the general population will be needed.