Development and validation of a clinical risk score to predict the occurrence of critical illness in hospitalized patients with SFTS

Development and validation of the PLNA score to predict cytokine storm in acute-phase SFTS patients: A single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease known for its high mortality rate and its correlation with Cytokine Storms (CS). Timely detection of CS is crucial for improving the prognosis of the disease. The objective of this investigation was to develop a model for identifying cytokine storms in the acute phase of SFTS.

METHODS

A total of 245 patients diagnosed with SFTS were included in this study between January 2020 and July 2022. Among them, 184 patients were part of the training set, while 61 patients were part of the validation set. Variables identified by LASSO were subsequently included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine independent predictors. Subsequently, a nomogram was then developed to predict the likelihood of CS in SFTS patients. The predictive efficacy and clinical applicability of the nomogram model were further assessed through ROC analysis and the DCA curve.

RESULTS

Following LASSO analysis, a total of 11 indicators were included in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The findings indicated that PLT (OR 0.865, P < 0.001), LDH (OR 1.002, P < 0.001), Na+ (OR 1.155, P = 0.005), and ALT (OR 1.019, P < 0.001) serve as independently predictors of CS in the acute phase of SFTS. Furthermore, a nomogram named the PLNA was constructed by integrating these four factors. The PLNA model exhibited favorable predictive accuracy with an AUC of 0.958. Moreover, the PLNA model exhibited excellent clinical applicability in both the training and validation sets, as evidenced by the DCA curve.

CONCLUSIONS

The PLNA model, constructed using clinical indicators, can predict the probability of cytokine storm in the acute phase of SFTS patients.

Kinetics and Prognostic Significance of Laboratory Markers in Patients With Severe Fever With Thrombocytopenia Syndrome: Insight From a Comprehensive Analysis

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with significant mortality. Identifying prognostic factors that influence patient outcomes is crucial for effective clinical management. In this study, we assessed the dynamic changes of laboratory markers and their association with outcomes in 93 SFTS patients. We found that age and hypertension were significantly associated with poor outcomes in SFTS patients. The deceased group exhibited lower platelet counts, elevated liver and kidney function markers, coagulation profiles, inflammatory markers, and cytokines compared to the survival group. Kinetic analysis showed that these markers gradually normalized in the survival group, while they remained persistently abnormal in the deceased group. Furthermore, hypertension, elevated aspartate aminotransferase, procalcitonin, and interleukin 10 were identified as independent risk factors for predicting poor prognosis of SFTS patients. These findings provide valuable insights into the prognostic significance of laboratory markers and highlight the importance of early identification of high-risk SFTS patients.

ACCI could be a poor prognostic indicator for the in-hospital mortality of patients with SFTS

This study aims to evaluate the predictive role of age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) scores for in-hospital prognosis of severe fever in thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) patients. A total of 192 patients diagnosed with SFTS were selected as the study subjects. Clinical data were retrospectively collected. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the diagnostic value of ACCI for the mortality of SFTS patients, and Cox regression models were used to assess the association between predictive factors and prognosis. The 192 SFTS patients were divided into two groups according to the clinical endpoints (survivors/non-survivors). The results showed that the mortality of the 192 hospitalized SFTS patients was 26.6%. The ACCI score of the survivor group was significantly lower than that of the non-survivor group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the increased ACCI score was a significant predictor of poor prognosis in SFTS. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that SFTS patients with an ACCI >2.5 had shorter mean survival times, indicating a poor prognosis. Our findings suggest that ACCI, as an easy-to-use clinical indicator, may offer a simple and feasible approach for clinicians to determine the severity of SFTS.

The pathogenic and clinical characteristics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome patients with co-infections

Objective

The study aimed to comprehensively describe and evaluate the pathogenic and clinical characteristics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) patients with co-infections.

Methods

We retrospectively collected clinical data and laboratory indicators of the SFTS patients at Tongji Hospital from October 2021 to July 2023.

Results

A total of 157 patients with SFTS virus (SFTSV) infection were involved in the analysis, including 43 co-infection and 114 non-co-infection patients. The pathogens responsible for co-infection were primarily isolated from respiratory specimens. Fungal infections, primarily Aspergillus fumigatus, were observed in 22 cases. Bacterial infections, with Klebsiella pneumoniae and carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii as the main pathogens, were identified in 20 cases. SFTS patients with co-infection exhibited higher mortality (P=0.011) compared to non-co-infection patients. Among SFTS patients co-infected with both bacteria and fungi (8 cases) or specific drug-resistant strains (11 cases), the mortality rate was as high as 70% (14/19). In comparison with the non-co-infection group, SFTS patients with co-infection displayed significant alteration in inflammatory markers, coagulation function, and liver function indicators.

Conclusion

The mortality rate of SFTS patients with co-infection is relatively high, underscoring the need for enhanced monitoring and timely, appropriate treatment to minimize the mortality rate.