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Kyaw MH, Spinardi JR, Jagun O, Franco Villalobos C, Kapetanakis V, Sharf-Williams R, Yarnoff B. Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e081019. [PMID: 38296298 PMCID: PMC10831443 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-081019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/03/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies. DESIGN In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed. SETTING Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. OUTCOME MEASURES COVID-19 cases and influenza cases. RESULTS No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.
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El-Kafrawy SA, Alsayed SM, Faizo AA, Bajrai LH, Uthman NA, Alsaeed MS, Hassan AM, Alquthami KM, Alandijany TA, Zumla A, Azhar EI. Genetic diversity and molecular analysis of human influenza virus among pilgrims during Hajj. Heliyon 2024; 10:e23027. [PMID: 38163192 PMCID: PMC10755270 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e23027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2023] [Revised: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/24/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024] Open
Abstract
The risk of transmission of respiratory tract infections is considerably enhanced at mass gathering (MG) religious events. Hajj is an annual Islamic MG event with approximately 3 million Muslim pilgrims from over 180 countries concentrated in Makkah, Saudi Arabia. This study aimed to investigate the genetic diversity of influenza viruses circulating among pilgrims during the Hajj pilgrimage. We performed a cross-sectional analytical study where nasopharyngeal swabs (NPs) from pilgrims with respiratory tract illnesses presenting to healthcare facilities during the 2019 Hajj were screened for influenza viruses. Influenza A subtypes and influenza B lineages were determined by multiplex RT-PCR for positive influenza samples. The phylogenetic analysis was carried out for the hemagglutination (HA) gene. Out of 185 nasopharyngeal samples, 54 were positive for the human influenza virus. Of these, 27 were influenza A H1N1 and 19 H3N2, 4 were untypable influenza A, and 4 were influenza B. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the H1N1 and H3N2 strains differentiated into different and independent genetic groups and formed close clusters with selected strains of influenza viruses from various locations. To conclude, this study demonstrates a high genetic diversity of circulating influenza A subtypes among pilgrims during the Hajj Season. There is a need for further larger studies to investigate in-depth the genetic characteristics of influenza viruses and other respiratory viruses during Hajj seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sherif A. El-Kafrawy
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Salma M. Alsayed
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Arwa A. Faizo
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Leena H. Bajrai
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Norah A. Uthman
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Moneerah S. Alsaeed
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ahmed M. Hassan
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Thamir A. Alandijany
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Alimuddin Zumla
- Division of Infection and Immunity, Centre for Clinical Microbiology, University College London Royal Free Campus, London WC1E 6DE, UK
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UCL Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London W1T 7DN, UK
| | - Esam I. Azhar
- Special Infectious Agents Unit BSL-3, King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, Faculty of Applied Medical Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
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