Risk stratification based on nutritional screening on admission: Three-year clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with acute heart failure syndrome

Clinical application of artificial intelligence algorithm for prediction of one-year mortality in heart failure patients

Risk prediction for heart failure (HF) using machine learning methods (MLM) has not yet been established at practical application levels in clinical settings. This study aimed to create a new risk prediction model for HF with a minimum number of predictor variables using MLM. We used two datasets of hospitalized HF patients: retrospective data for creating the model and prospectively registered data for model validation. Critical clinical events (CCEs) were defined as death or LV assist device implantation within 1 year from the discharge date. We randomly divided the retrospective data into training and testing datasets and created a risk prediction model based on the training dataset (MLM-risk model). The prediction model was validated using both the testing dataset and the prospectively registered data. Finally, we compared predictive power with published conventional risk models. In the patients with HF (n = 987), CCEs occurred in 142 patients. In the testing dataset, the substantial predictive power of the MLM-risk model was obtained (AUC = 0.87). We generated the model using 15 variables. Our MLM-risk model showed superior predictive power in the prospective study compared to conventional risk models such as the Seattle Heart Failure Model (c-statistics: 0.86 vs. 0.68, p < 0.05). Notably, the model with an input variable number (n = 5) has comparable predictive power for CCE with the model (variable number = 15). This study developed and validated a model with minimized variables to predict mortality more accurately in patients with HF, using a MLM, than the existing risk scores.

Prediction of all-cause mortality with malnutrition assessed by nutritional screening and assessment tools in patients with heart failure：a systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In the absence of a gold standard or scientific consensus regarding the nutritional evaluation of heart failure (HF) patients, this study aimed to summarize and systematically evaluate the prognostic value of nutritional screening and assessment tools used for all-cause mortality in HF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Relevant studies were retrieved from major databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), WanFang Data, and China Biology Medicine disc (CMB)) and searched from the earliest available date until July 2021. If three or more studies used the same tool, meta-analysis using RevMan 5.3 was performed. This systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (number CRD42021275575). A total of 36 articles involving 25,141 HF patients were included for qualitative analysis and 31 studies for quantitative analysis. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated, poor nutritional status evaluated by using 5 nutritional screening tools (Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), Controlling Nutritional Status Score (CONUT), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), and Short Form Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF)) or 2 nutritional assessment tools (the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and Generated Subjective Global Assessment (SGA)) predicted all-cause mortality in HF patients. Of all tools analyzed, MNA had the maximum HR for mortality [HR = 2.62, 95%CI 1.11-6.20, P = 0.03] and MNA-SF [HR = 1.94, 95%CI 1.40-2.70, P＜0.001] was the best nutritional screening tools.

CONCLUSION

Poor nutritional status predicted all-cause mortality in HF patients. MNA may be the best nutritional assessment tool, and MNA-SF is most recommended for HF patient nutritional screening. The application value of MNA, especially in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), needs to be further confirmed. The clinical application value of Mini-Nutrition Assessment Special for Heart Failure (MNA-HF) and Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) in HF patients needs to be confirmed.

The prevalence of malnutrition and its effects on the all-cause mortality among patients with heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Malnutrition has a high occurrence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The prevalence of malnutrition and its impact on all-cause mortality in patients with CHF were assessed using a meta-analysis.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Medline, CBM, CNKI, WANFANG DATA, and VIP databases were searched to collect cross-sectional and cohort studies on malnutrition, and the prevalence and all-cause mortality of patients with CHF were determined. The time of retrieval was from the database establishment to May 2021. Two researchers independently performed screening of the literature, data extraction and assessed the risk of bias in the included studies. Then Stata 16.0 software was used for meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 10 cross-sectional and 21 cohort studies were included, including 12537 patients with CHF. A meta-analysis demonstrated that the total prevalence of malnutrition in patients with heart failure was 46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43, 0.49). Compared to patients with non-malnutrition, malnutrition increased the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with CHF (hazard ratio = 2.15, 95% CI [1.89, 2.45], P < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Current evidence suggests that the prevalence of malnutrition is high among patients with CHF. The risk of all-cause mortality in such patients can be increased by malnutrition. Therefore, the risk of malnutrition in patients with CHF should be considered to reduce the occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes.

The C-reactive protein to prealbumin ratio on admission and its relationship with outcome in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure

BACKGROUND

Inflammation and malnutrition are common problems in patients who are hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF). C-reactive protein (CRP) is an acute-phase reactant and nonspecific marker for evaluating systemic inflammation. There has been growing interest in prealbumin for nutritional assessment. Additionally, prealbumin is a negative acute-phase protein because its synthesis is suppressed in the inflammatory setting in which cytokines stimulate hepatic production of acute-phase proteins (e.g. CRP). Therefore, the CRP to prealbumin ratio (CP ratio) may be a comprehensive marker of inflammation and malnutrition. We evaluated the relationship of the CP ratio with mortality in patients with AHF.

METHODS

We analyzed 257 hospitalized patients with AHF who had CRP and prealbumin levels examined on admission.

RESULTS

The median CP ratio on admission was 0.57, with an interquartile range of 0.11 to 1.94. In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.729 and the optimal cut-off point of the CP ratio for all-cause death was >1.60 (sensitivity: 67.5%; specificity: 77.6%; p = 0.003). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that patients with a high CP ratio (>1.60) had a significantly greater risk of all-cause, cardiac, and non-cardiac death (log-rank test, all p<0.001) than patients with a low CP ratio (≤1.60). Multivariable analysis adjusted for imbalanced baseline variables showed that a high CP ratio was independently associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 3.88; 95% confidence interval 1.91-7.86; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The ratio of two hepatic proteins, CRP and prealbumin, may be useful in risk stratification of patients with AHF.

Utility of the Nutritional Screening in Predicting Adverse Outcome of Patients With Overweight/Obesity and Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Undernutrition is a negative predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Despite the survival advantage of elevated body mass index (BMI) in patients with HF, BMI does not necessarily reflect a favorable nutritional status. In the present study, we investigated the clinical impact of nutritional screening in patients with HF and overweight/obesity.

METHODS

We examined the data from 170 patients with overweight or obesity status (defined as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²) who admitted for acute HF. Their controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score was calculated on admission. The CONUT score is regarded as an index of the nutritional status.

RESULTS

The median duration of follow-up was 1096 days (interquartile range, 805-1096 days). Undernutrition was identified in 66.5% of the patients. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with undernutrition had a higher incidence of all-cause death and readmission due to HF than those without undernutrition. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the CONUT score, but not BMI and the geriatric nutritional risk index, was independently correlated with poor prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Undernutrition is highly prevalent and independently predicts poor outcomes in patients with overweight/obesity and acute HF.

Cognitive function in post-cardiac intensive care: patient characteristics and impact of multidisciplinary cardiac rehabilitation

New/worsening cognitive and physical impairments following critical care pose significant problems. Multidisciplinary cardiac rehabilitation (CR) can improve physical function after cardiac intensive care (CIC). This observational study aimed to evaluate cognitive function in patients participating in multidisciplinary CR and to identify correlates of impaired cognitive function after CIC. We analyzed 111 consecutive patients admitted to our comprehensive care ward at least 7 days after CIC and assessed factors associated with cognitive function using the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Patients were stratified into two groups based on the median FIM-Cognitive scores: impaired (n = 56) and preserved cognition (n = 55) groups. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified age [odds ratio (OR) 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.13; p = 0.042], Mini-Nutrition Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF; OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.56-0.95; p = 0.017), and FIM-Physical scores (OR: 0.94; 95% CI 0.90-0.99; p = 0.012) as significant and independent factors associated with impaired cognition. The median length of hospital stay was 28 (interquartile range: 18, 43) days. The FIM-Cognitive and FIM-Physical scores significantly increased from admission to discharge [32.0 (27.0, 35.0) vs. 34.0 (29.0, 35.0) points; p < 0.001; 67.0 (53.0, 75.0) vs. 85.0 (73.5, 89.0) points; p < 0.001, respectively]. On subgroup analysis within the impaired cognition group, increased FIM-Cognitive scores positively and significantly correlated with increased FIM-Physical scores (ρ = 0.450; p = 0.001). Multiple linear regression analysis identified atrial fibrillation (AF; β = - 0.29; p = 0.016), ln(glycated hemoglobin; HbA1c) (β = 0.29; p = 0.018), and ln(high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; hs-CRP) (β = - 0.26; p = 0.034) as significant and independent factors correlated with increased FIM-Cognitive scores. In conclusion, advanced age, low MNA-SF score, and FIM-Physical score were independent factors associated with impaired cognition in post-CIC patients. Multidisciplinary CR improved both physical and cognitive functions, and AF, HbA1c, and hs-CRP were independent factors correlated with increased FIM-Cognitive score.

Serum albumin level and long-term outcome in acute heart failure

Objective: Hypoalbuminemia is common in heart failure (HF), especially in elderly patients. It is associated with an increased risk of death. The present study sought to examine the prognostic significance of serum albumin level in the prediction of long-term mortality in patients admitted for acute HF.Methods and results: We examined the association between albumin and hospital mortality in a cohort of 509 patients admitted for acute HF. None of the patients had infectious disease, severe arrhythmias (atrial fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation), required invasive ventilation or presented with acute coronary syndrome or primary valvular disease. Sixty-nine patients (14%) died during the 1-year follow-up. With multivariable analysis, haemoglobin level (p = .003), systolic blood pressure (p = .004) and serum albumin level (p = .003) emerged as independent predictors of long-term mortality. Hypoalbuminemia (<35.7 g/L) had a hazard ratio of 2.01 (95% CI 1.24-3.25) and haemoglobin of 2.6 (95% CI 1.29-5.22) for predicting long-term mortality.Conclusions: Serum albumin level measured at admission, especially if combined with anaemia, can serve as a simple prognostic factor in acute HF for predicting long-term outcome.

Effect of risk of malnutrition on 30-day mortality among older patients with acute heart failure in Emergency Departments

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the prevalence and impact of risk of malnutrition on short-term mortality among seniors presenting with acute heart failure (AHF) in emergency setting. The objective was to determine the impact of risk of malnutrition on 30-day mortality risk among older patients who attended in Emergency Departments (EDs) for AHF.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of the OAK-3 Registry including all consecutive patients ≥65 years attending in 16 Spanish EDs for AHF. Risk of malnutrition was defined by the Mini Nutritional Assessment Short Form (MNA-SF) < 12 points. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to assess the association between risk of malnutrition and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

We included 749 patients (mean age: 85 (SD 6); 55.8% females). Risk of malnutrition was observed in 594 (79.3%) patients. The rate of 30-day mortality was 8.8%. After adjusting for MEESSI-AHF risk score clinical categories (model 1) and after adding all variables showing a significantly different distribution among groups (model 2), the risk of malnutrition was an independent factor associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR by model 1 = 3.4; 95%CI 1.2-9.7; p = .020 and adjusted OR by model 2 = 3.1; 95%CI 1.1-9.0; p = .033) compared to normal nutritional status.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of malnutrition assessed by the MNA-SF is associated with 30-day mortality in older patients with AHF who were attended in EDs. Routine screening of risk of malnutrition may help emergency physicians in decision-making and establishing a care plan.

U-shaped relationship between serum phosphate and cardiovascular risk: A retrospective cohort study

Background

High serum phosphate is associated with coronary artery disease in patients with normal and impaired renal function. We asked: Does the serum phosphate range provide prediction of primary cardiac events? We extracted coded primary care data for over 100,000 patients from a database of 135 primary medical practices. Patients aged between 18 and 90 years without pre-existing cardiovascular diagnoses were included from a potential sample of over 1·2 million individuals.

Methods and findings

Binary logistic regression models were used to evaluate the contribution of QRISK factors and electrolytes, including serum phosphate, to cardiac outcomes at five and nine years following an initial phosphate measurement. At five-year review (n = 113,993), low serum phosphate (OR 1·75, 95%CI 1·36–2·23, p<0·001), high-normal (OR 1·50, 95%CI 1·29–1·74, p<0·001), and high serum phosphate (OR 1·74, 95%CI 1·06–2·70, p = 0·02) were long-term risk factors for primary cardiac disease events after adjusting for confounding variables. A similar pattern was seen at our nine-year review.

Conclusions

The extremes of serum phosphate may confer cardiac event risk with a U-shaped trend. In particular, we raise new cardiac concerns for low serum phosphate in the general population. Also, the normal range for phosphate may require redefinition among healthy adults.

On admission serum sodium and uric acid levels predict 30 day rehospitalization or death in patients with acute decompensated heart failure

AIMS

A considerable proportion of hospitalized patients for acute decompensated heart failure will be readmitted or die in short-term follow-up. In the present study, we aimed to assess the role of admission sodium (Na) and uric acid (UA) levels in the prediction of 30 day post-discharge heart failure readmission or all-cause mortality in advanced heart failure patients admitted with acute decompensation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

One hundred and forty consecutive advanced heart failure patients who were admitted for a recent cardiac decompensation were enrolled in this prospective study. Serum Na and UA levels remained statistically unchanged during index admission (P = 0. 54 and 0.19, respectively). Within 30 days post-discharge, composite end point of heart failure rehospitalization or all-cause death occurred in 62 (44.3%) patients (event group). Length of stay was statistically similar between patients in the event and non-event groups (P = 0.38). No correlations were also found between length of stay and left ventricular ejection fraction, serum Na, UA, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), creatinine, and N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels (all P > 0.05). Lower left ventricular ejection fraction and Na and higher UA on admission were significantly associated with 30 day event both in univariate and multivariate analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the predictive role of baseline Na and UA for early post-discharge outcome and the absence of significant changes in their levels during initial hospitalization, admission Na and UA can be considered as prognosticators of acute decompensated heart failure, which their prognostic significance cannot be affected by routine acute heart failure therapy.