Impact of strict population confinement on fracture incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Experience from a public Health Care Department in Spain

Assessing the impacts of vaccination and viral evolution in contact networks

A key lesson learned with COVID-19 is that public health measures were very different from country to country. In this study, we provide an analysis of epidemic dynamics using three well-known stochastic network models-small-world networks (Watts-Strogatz), random networks (Erdös-Rényi), and scale-free networks (Barabási-Albert)-to assess the impact of different viral strains, lockdown strategies, and vaccination campaigns. We highlight the significant role of highly connected nodes in the spread of infections, particularly within Barabási-Albert networks. These networks experienced earlier and higher peaks in infection rates, but ultimately had the lowest total number of infections, indicating their rapid transmission dynamics. We also found that intermittent lockdown strategies, particularly those with 7-day intervals, effectively reduce the total number of infections, serving as viable alternatives to prolonged continuous lockdowns. When simulating vaccination campaigns, we observed a bimodal distribution leading to two distinct outcomes: pandemic contraction and pandemic expansion. For WS and ER networks, rapid mass vaccination campaigns significantly reduced infection rates compared to slower campaigns; however, for BA networks, differences between vaccination strategies were minimal. To account for the evolution of a virus into a more transmissible strain, we modeled vaccination scenarios that varied vaccine efficacy against the wild-type virus and noted a decline in this efficacy over time against a second variant. Our results showed that vaccination coverage above 40% significantly flattened infection peaks for the wild-type virus, while at least 80% coverage was required to similarly reduce peaks for variant 2. Furthermore, the effect of vaccine efficacy on reducing the peak of variant 2 infection was minimal. Although vaccination strategies targeting hub nodes in scale-free networks did not substantially reduce the total number of infections, they were effective in increasing the probability of preventing pandemic outbreaks. These findings underscore the need to consider the network structure for effective pandemic control.

Impact of COVID-19 on Fracture Incidence in Germany: A Comparative Age and Gender Analysis of Pre- and Post-Outbreak Periods

In March 2020, Germany imposed a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19, prompting questions about the impact on the incidence of common fractures. This study examined 15 fracture types in pre-outbreak (2010-2019) and post-outbreak (2020-2021) periods, using data categorized by age (18-64 years, >65 years) and sex (male, female). Linear regression assessed annual growth rates, and mean fracture numbers were compared across periods for significant differences. Results indicated a positive correlation between fracture incidence rates and time for various types, such as cervical, thoracic, lumbar, and pelvic spine fractures, rib fractures, femoral neck, pertrochanteric femur, femoral shaft, and ankle fractures. Frequencies of proximal humerus, distal radius, femoral neck, pertrochanteric femur, femoral shaft, and ankle fractures in 2020 and 2021 were within predicted ranges from previous years. However, rib fractures and spinal fractures (cervical, thoracic, lumbar, and pelvic spine) occurred less frequently during this time. Notably, this study found a consistent decline in most fracture types for individuals aged 18-64 after the pandemic's onset, while the fracture incidence of hip fractures, often referred to as fragility fractures, for those over 65 remained unchanged. Fibula fractures showed the most considerable decrease in both age groups. In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic substantially impacted fracture incidence, with lower rates among individuals under 65 and unchanged fragility fractures in the elderly population.

[Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the strict population confinement on hip fracture incidence in Spain: A systematic review]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a strict population confinement was decreed in Spain. In a situation of health crisis and health system saturation, knowledge of pathologies whose treatment cannot be delayed is of great importance for the correct management of resources and processes. The objective was to determine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the strict population confinement on hip fracture incidence in Spain.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

Systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines. Search in Pubmed and Chocrane Library on 11/11/2022: hip fracture and COVID-19 and Spain.

RESULTS

Six studies met the inclusion criteria, 50% showed a decrease in the hip fractures incidence during strict population confinement (all in Comunidad de Madrid hospitals), and in the other 50% there were no differences (all in other region hospitals). It was constant that hip fractures, either did not decrease, or decreased much less than the rest of fractures during the period of strict population confinement, increasing their relative number with respect to the total admissions in orthopedic surgery and traumatology.

CONCLUSIONS

The behavior of the hip fractures number during the strict population confinement decreed by the COVID-19 pandemic has not been symmetrical in all regions. To design and implement contingency plans in the event of a pandemic situation, these data must be taken into account in order to properly plan material and human resources.

Effects of COVID-19 confinement on the incidence and mortality of major osteoporotic fractures: an observational study in Catalonia, Spain

There is little information on how the COVID-19 lockdown influenced the epidemiology of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF). We analyzed the incidence and mortality of MOF in 2020 compared with 2018-2019 in Catalonia, Spain. The incidence of MOF decreased steeply, and post-fracture mortality increased during the lockdown and throughout 2020.

PURPOSE

To analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) incidence and mortality in Catalonia in 2020 and describe how age, sex, and the prior comorbidity burden influenced the epidemiology of MOF types.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study, data on age and sex in people aged ≥ 50 years with a new diagnosis of MOF in 2018, 2019, and 2020 were collected. Average daily rates (ADR) were estimated overall and for five MOF: hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus, vertebrae, and pelvis. Morbidity was assessed using Adjusted Morbidity Groups. ADR in 2020 and the previous years were compared for overall and site-specific MOF in four consecutive time periods: pre-confinement, lockdown, deconfinement, and post-confinement. Thirty-day post-fracture mortality was assessed. COVID-19-related mortality was obtained from the Catalan COVID-19 register.

RESULTS

From 2018 to 2020, there were 86,412 MOF. The ADR of MOF initially increased in 2020 before the pandemic, decreased steeply during lockdown, and remained lower in the rest of the year. The decrease was steeper in vertebral, pelvic and arm fractures, and lower in hip fractures. Differences were more pronounced in younger age groups and people with fewer comorbidities. Mortality increased throughout 2020, reaching a 2.5-fold increase during lockdown. Excess mortality was directly associated with COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobility restrictions due to COVID-19 were associated with a reduction in MOF incidence in Catalonia, especially in younger people and in non-hip fractures. Post-fracture mortality was higher than in previous years due to the high COVID-19 mortality in the elderly.

Challenges and Opportunities for Osteoporosis Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic

PURPOSE

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has both directly and indirectly affected osteoporosis diagnosis and treatment throughout the world.

METHODS

This mini-review summarizes the available evidence regarding the effects of COVID-19, its treatment, and the consequences of the pandemic itself on bone health. Additionally, we review evidence and expert recommendations regarding putative effects of osteoporosis medications on COVID-19 outcomes and vaccine efficacy and summarize recommendations for continuation of osteoporosis treatment during the pandemic.

RESULTS

The use of standard screening procedures to assess for osteoporosis and fracture risk declined dramatically early in the pandemic, while rates of fragility fractures were largely unchanged. COVID-19, its treatments, and public health measures to prevent viral spread are each likely to negatively affect bone health. Osteoporosis treatments are not known to increase risk of adverse events from COVID-19, and preclinical data suggest possible beneficial effects of some therapies. Vitamin D deficiency is clearly associated with adverse outcomes from COVID-19, but it remains unclear whether vitamin D supplementation may improve outcomes. Osteoporosis treatment should be continued whenever possible, and recommendations for substituting therapies, if required, are available.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic has decreased screening and disrupted treatment for osteoporosis. Osteoporosis medications are safe and effective during the pandemic and should be continued whenever possible. Further studies are needed to fully understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term bone health.