Validation of the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score in Advanced Cancer Patients Receiving Palliative Care

Hand grip strength in patients with advanced cancer: A prospective study

BACKGROUND

Hand grip strength (HGS) is a widely used functional test for the assessment of strength and functional status in patients with cancer, in particular with cancer cachexia. The aim was to prospectively evaluate the prognostic value of HGS in patients with mostly advanced cancer with and without cachexia and to establish reference values for a European-based population.

METHODS

In this prospective study, 333 patients with cancer (85% stage III/IV) and 65 healthy controls of similar age and sex were enrolled. None of the study participants had significant cardiovascular disease or active infection at baseline. Repetitive HGS assessment was performed using a hand dynamometer to measure the maximal HGS (kilograms). Presence of cancer cachexia was defined when patients had ≥5% weight loss within 6 months or when body mass index was <20.0 kg/m² with ≥2% weight loss (Fearon's criteria). Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to assess the relationship of maximal HGS to all-cause mortality and to determine cut-offs for HGS with the best predictive power. We also assessed associations with additional relevant clinical and functional outcome measures at baseline, including anthropometric measures, physical function (Karnofsky Performance Status and Eastern Cooperative of Oncology Group), physical activity (4-m gait speed test and 6-min walk test), patient-reported outcomes (EQ-5D-5L and Visual Analogue Scale appetite/pain) and nutrition status (Mini Nutritional Assessment).

RESULTS

The mean age was 60 ± 14 years; 163 (51%) were female, and 148 (44%) had cachexia at baseline. Patients with cancer showed 18% lower HGS than healthy controls (31.2 ± 11.9 vs. 37.9 ± 11.6 kg, P < 0.001). Patients with cancer cachexia had 16% lower HGS than those without cachexia (28.3 ± 10.1 vs. 33.6 ± 12.3 kg, P < 0.001). Patients with cancer were followed for a mean of 17 months (range 6-50), and 182 (55%) patients died during follow-up (2-year mortality rate 53%) (95% confidence interval 48-59%). Reduced maximal HGS was associated with increased mortality (per -5 kg; hazard ratio [HR] 1.19; 1.10-1.28; P < 0.0001; independently of age, sex, cancer stage, cancer entity and presence of cachexia). HGS was also a predictor of mortality in patients with cachexia (per -5 kg; HR 1.20; 1.08-1.33; P = 0.001) and without cachexia (per -5 kg; HR 1.18; 1.04-1.34; P = 0.010). The cut-off for maximal HGS with the best predictive power for poor survival was <25.1 kg for females (sensitivity 54%, specificity 63%) and <40.2 kg for males (sensitivity 69%, specificity 68%).

CONCLUSIONS

Reduced maximal HGS was associated with higher all-cause mortality, reduced overall functional status and decreased physical performance in patients with mostly advanced cancer. Similar results were found for patients with and without cancer cachexia.

Dynapenia in digestive cancer outpatients: association with markers of functional and nutritional status (the FIGHTDIGO study)

BACKGROUND

The FIGHTDIGO study determined the feasibility and acceptability of handgrip strength (HGS) measurement in digestive cancer outpatients.

PURPOSE

To assess the relationship between muscle strength and markers of functional and nutritional status in this population.

DESIGN

In this prospective study, a total of 201 patients were followed during 6 months and were asked to perform HGS measurement at each hospitalization. Anthropometric measurements, laboratory tests, and performance status (PS) evaluation were collected. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) was calculated using CRP and albumin levels. Severe malnutrition was defined as body mass index (BMI) < 18 kg/m² in patients > 70 years old, and BMI < 16 kg/m² in those < 70 years old. Dynapenia was defined as HGS < 30 kg (men) and < 20 kg (women). Mixed logistic regressions and mixed linear regressions were performed to study factors associated with dynapenia and HGS value, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 879 HGS measurements were analyzed. Dynapenia occurred in 177 measurements (20.1%). BMI and HGS were significantly associated in univariate analysis (p = 0.001). In multivariate analysis, mGPS score (β =  - 0.54 ± 0.31; p = 0.06) and severe malnutrition (β =  - 2.8 ± 1.4; p = 0.08) tended to be associated with HGS. Dynapenia was only associated with functional status impairment in univariate analysis (n = 140/803, 17.4% in ECOG 0 and 1 versus n = 37/76, 58.7% in ECOG 2 and 3; p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Identification of dynapenia using HGS measurement may be useful to predict nutritional vulnerability in digestive cancer outpatients undergoing chemotherapy. Patients could then benefit from nutritional support, adapted physical activity programs, and early therapeutic adjustments. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02797197.

Prognostic tools for survival prediction in advanced cancer patients: A systematic review

Survival prediction for palliative cancer patients by physicians is often optimistic. Patients with a very short life expectancy (<4 weeks) may not benefit from radiation therapy (RT), as the time to maximal symptom relief after treatment can take 4-6 weeks. We aimed to identify a prognostic tool (or tools) to predict survival of less than 4 weeks and less than 3 months in patients with advanced cancer to guide the choice of radiation dose and fractionation. We searched Embase, Medline (EBSCOhost) and CINAHL (EBSCOhost) clinical databases for literature published between January 2008 and June 2018. Seventeen studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Prediction accuracy at less than 4 weeks and less than 3 months were compared across the prognostic tools. Reporting of prediction accuracy among the different studies was not consistent: the Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and Number of Risk Factors (NRF) best-predicted survival duration of less than 4 weeks. The PPI, performance status with Palliative Prognostic Index (PS-PPI), NRF and Survival Prediction Score (SPS) may predict 3-month survival. We recommend PPI and PaP tools to assess the likelihood of a patient surviving less than 4 weeks. If predicted to survive longer and RT is justified, the NRF tool could be used to determine survival probability less than 3 months which can then help clinicians select dose and fractionation. Future research is needed to verify the reliability of survival prediction using these prognostic tools in a radiation oncology setting.

The impact of body composition on short-term outcomes of neoadjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine plus S-1 in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Although the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine plus S-1 (NAC GS) has recently been reported in resectable pancreatic cancer, severe adverse events were frequently observed. Sarcopenia has been reported to be associated with reduced antitumor response and chemotherapy toxicity in several malignancies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of body composition on short-term outcomes of NAC GS in resectable pancreatic cancer patients.

METHODS

Clinicopathological data of consecutive patients treated with NAC GS at our institution from February 2019 to April 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Anthropometric variables were calculated at the third lumbar vertebra using pretreatment computed tomography images. We investigated the association between body composition variables, and antitumor response and chemotherapy toxicity.

RESULTS

Among 62 patients included in this study, 25 patients (40%) were sarcopenic at diagnosis. Sixty-one patients received surgery at our institution and 57 patients received pancreatic resection (R0/R1 resection 56/1). Fifty-six patients completed two cycles of NAC GS and severe adverse events (≥grade 3) occurred in 42 patients (hematologic toxicity 41 patients [66%]; non-hematologic toxicity 3 patients). Body mass index and total adipose tissue index were significantly lower in sarcopenic patients compared to non-sarcopenic patients. Completion rate of NAC, rate of treatment delay/interruption, relative dose intensity of gemcitabine and S-1, radiological and pathological tumor response after NAC were not different between sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic patients. Furthermore, there was no significant association between body composition, and severe adverse events and intolerance.

CONCLUSIONS

In our experience, NAC GS was similarly tolerable and effective in resectable pancreatic cancer patients regardless of the presence of sarcopenia.

Dealing with prognostic uncertainty: the role of prognostic models and websites for patients with advanced cancer

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide an updated overview of prognostic models in advanced cancer and highlight the role of prognostic calculators.

RECENT FINDINGS

In the advanced cancer setting, many important healthcare decisions are driven by a patient's prognosis. However, there is much uncertainty in formulating prognosis, particularly in the era of novel cancer therapeutics. Multiple prognostic models have been validated for patients seen by palliative care and have a life expectancy of a few months or less, such as the Palliative Performance Scale, Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index, Objective Prognostic Score, and Prognosis in Palliative Care Study Predictor. However, these models are seldom used in clinical practice because of challenges related to limited accuracy when applied individually and difficulties with model selection, computation, and interpretation. Online prognostic calculators emerge as tools to facilitate knowledge translation by overcoming the above challenges. For example, www.predictsurvival.com provides the output for seven prognostic indexes simultaneously based on 11 variables.

SUMMARY

Prognostic models and prognostic websites are currently available to augment prognostication in the advanced cancer setting. Further studies are needed to examine their impact on prognostic accuracy, confidence, and clinical outcomes.

Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) for Prognostication of Adult Oncology Patients With Palliative Intent in a Regional Victorian Hospital, Australia

BACKGROUND

Accurate prognostication is essential in caring for palliative patients. Various prognostication tools have been validated in many settings in the past few years. Biomarkers of inflammation (albumin and C-reactive protein) are combined to calculate the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), which has been found to be a simple prognostic tool in this population.

OBJECTIVE

This retrospective cohort study was to evaluate mGPS as a prognostication tool for cancer patients admitted to an acute hospital in regional Australia.

METHODS

Adult cancer patients admitted to an acute Australian regional hospital during 2017 who had albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) tested were included. The mGPS was calculated based on their admission values and discharge values. Based on their score (0-2), groups were compared using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis for prognostication. Kaplan-Meier survival plots and median survival time from admission and discharge were constructed.

RESULTS

A total of 170 patient records were reviewed of which 95 had admission and discharge mGPS scores available for analysis. Of those, 86 had died at the time of data analysis. The median survival for admission mGPS 0, 1, 2 was 168,156 and 74 days. For discharge mGPS 0, 1, 2 medians were 168,119 and 70 days. On multi variate analysis admission mGPS 2 showed Hazard ratio of 2.29 (95% CI 1.16-4.56, p -0.02) and discharge mGPS 2 of 2.07 (95% CI 0.95-4.50, p value 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, mGPS was able to differentiate cancer patients into various prognostic groups. Further studies in regional acute hospitals could validate this prospectively with a multi-center larger sample size.

Comprehensive comparison of clinicopathological characteristics, treatment, and prognosis of borderline resectable pancreatic cancer according to tumor location

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of borderline resectable (BR) pancreatic cancer (PC) has improved by multidisciplinary therapy. However, the differences in clinical course between pancreatic head (Ph) and pancreatic body and tail (Pbt) cancer has not been fully elucidated. Therefore, we conducted this study to compare the clinical course of BR PC patients according to tumor location.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated consecutive patients with BR PC who initiated neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) between March 2015 and April 2019. We compared clinicopathological characteristics, treatment, recurrence pattern and post recurrence treatment between Ph and Pbt cancer patients. We also compared recurrence free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) according to tumor location.

RESULTS

A total of 108 patients with BR PC were included. Tumor location was Ph 74 and Pbt 34, respectively. Initial regimen of NAC was nab-paclitaxel/gemcitabine in 106 and gemcitabine in 2, respectively. Although Pbt location was associated with more advanced T stage, it showed similar N stage, pathological stage, RFS, OS, and details of adjuvant chemotherapy compared to Ph location. The most common site of postoperative recurrence was liver-only recurrence in Ph tumor (32% vs. 6%, p = 0.04) and peritoneal dissemination-only recurrence in Pbt tumor (35% vs. 11%, p = 0.06). Furthermore, Ph cancer patients received a higher rate of monotherapy compared to Pbt cancer patients (19% vs. 0%, p = 0.08).

CONCLUSIONS

In our experience tumor location was not a prognostic factor for OS in BR PC. Postoperative recurrence pattern and treatment after recurrence were different according to tumor location.

The prevalence of cancer associated systemic inflammation: Implications of prognostic studies using the Glasgow Prognostic Score

The prognostic importance of SIR in patients with cancer is widely recognised. More recently it has become clear that the systemic inflammatory response is an important etiologic factor in the development of cancer cachexia. Two recent meta-analysis carried out in 2017 and 2018 were interrogated and the number of patients with specific cancer types were identified. The percentage of patients with operable cancer (n>28,000) who were systemically inflamed varied from 21% to 38%. The percentage of patients with inoperable cancer (n>12,000) who were systemically inflamed varied from 29% to 79%. Overall, the percentage of patients (n>40,000) who were systemically inflamed varied from 28% to 63% according to tumour type. The most commonly studied cancer was colorectal cancer (n∼10,000 patients) and 40% were systemically inflamed.

Extracellular-to-Intracellular Fluid Volume Ratio as a Prognostic Factor for Survival in Patients With Metastatic Cancer

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate whether the extracellular-to-intracellular fluid volume (E/I) ratio can predict survival in patients with metastatic cancer. Methods: Clinical data were collected from April 2016 to March 2018. Patients aged ≥19 years with metastatic solid tumor were eligible. Bioimpedance analysis was used to assess body fluid distribution and the E/I ratio. Clinical characteristics, including laboratory test results and nutrition status according to the E/I ratio, were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to identify risk factors for mortality. Results: In total, 87 patients were included in the study. The 87 patients were divided into 2 groups according to the median E/I ratio: a high E/I group (E/I ratio ≥1.0, n = 43) and a low E/I group (E/I ratio <1.0, n = 44). Poor performance status, fluid retention, malnutrition, elevation of C-reactive protein levels, and decreases in hemoglobin, albumin, and protein levels were significantly associated with the high E/I group. The median overall survival time was 1.6 and 12.5 months in the high E/I and low E/I groups, respectively (P < .001). In the multivariate analysis, poor performance status, leukocytosis, fluid retention, and E/I ratio were independent prognostic factors, and the E/I ratio was the strongest prognostic factor predicting overall survival (hazard ratio = 3.49, 95% confidence interval = 1.75-6.96, P < .001). Conclusions: The E/I ratio can predict survival time in patients with metastatic cancer. More rigorous research is required to confirm this result.

"How Long Have I Got?"-A Prospective Cohort Study Comparing Validated Prognostic Factors for Use in Patients with Advanced Cancer

BACKGROUND

The optimal prognostic factors in patients with advanced cancer are not known, as a comparison of these is lacking. The aim of the present study was to determine the optimal prognostic factors by comparing validated factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A multicenter, prospective observational cohort study recruited patients over 18 years with advanced cancer. The following were assessed: clinician-predicted survival (CPS), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS), patient reported outcome measures (anorexia, cognitive impairment, dyspnea, global health), metastatic disease, weight loss, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) based on C-reactive protein and albumin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and white (WCC), neutrophil (NC), and lymphocyte cell counts. Survival at 1 and 3 months was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve and logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Data were available on 478 patients, and the median survival was 4.27 (1.86-7.03) months. On univariate analysis, the following factors predicted death at 1 and 3 months: CPS, ECOG-PS, mGPS, WCC, NC (all p < .001), dyspnea, global health (both p ≤ .001), cognitive impairment, anorexia, LDH (all p < .01), and weight loss (p < .05). On multivariate analysis ECOG-PS, mGPS, and NC were independent predictors of survival at 1 and 3 months (all p < .01).

CONCLUSION

The simple combination of ECOG-PS and mGPS is an important novel prognostic framework which can alert clinicians to patients with good performance status who are at increased risk of having a higher symptom burden and dying at 3 months. From the recent literature it is likely that this framework will also be useful in referral for early palliative care with 6-24 months survival.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

This large cohort study examined all validated prognostic factors in a head-to-head comparison and demonstrated the superior prognostic value of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS)/modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) combination over other prognostic factors. This combination is simple, accurate, and also relates to quality of life. It may be useful in identifying patients who may benefit from early referral to palliative care. It is proposed ECOG-PS/mGPS as the new prognostic domain in patients with advanced cancer.

Prognostication in advanced cancer: update and directions for future research

The objective of this review is to provide an update on prognostication in patients with advanced cancer and to discuss future directions for research in this field. Accurate prognostication of survival for patients with advanced cancer is vital, as patient life expectancy informs many important personal and clinical decisions. The most common prognostic approach is clinician prediction of survival (CPS) using temporal, surprise, or probabilistic questions. The surprise and probabilistic questions may be more accurate than the temporal approach, partly by limiting the time frame of prediction. Prognostic models such as the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), or Prognosis in Palliative Care Study (PiPS) predictor model may augment CPS. However, care must be taken to select the appropriate tool since prognostic accuracy varies by patient population, setting, and time frame of prediction. In addition to life expectancy, patients and caregivers often desire that expected treatment outcomes and bodily changes be communicated to them in a sensible manner at an appropriate time. We propose the following 10 major themes for future prognostication research: (1) enhancing prognostic accuracy, (2) improving reliability and reproducibility of prognosis, (3) identifying the appropriate prognostic tool for a given setting, (4) predicting the risks and benefits of cancer therapies, (5) predicting survival for pediatric populations, (6) translating prognostic knowledge into practice, (7) understanding the impact of prognostic uncertainty, (8) communicating prognosis, (9) clarifying outcomes associated with delivery of prognostic information, and (10) standardizing prognostic terminology.

Relationship of nutritional status and inflammation with survival in patients with advanced cancer in palliative care

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of nutritional and inflammatory status in patients with advanced cancer receiving palliative care.

METHODS

The systemic inflammatory response was assessed using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), and nutritional status was evaluated according to the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) in 172 patients evaluated on their first visit in the Palliative Care Unit at the National Cancer Institute in Brazil. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to define the best cutoff point for the death-related PG-SGA score in 90 d. Kaplan-Meier curves were conducted for survival analyses, and logistic regression analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

According to the PG-SGA, 83.6% of the patients (n = 143) were malnourished (B + C) and 34.8% (n = 53) had mGPS ≥1. The best cutoff of the PG-SGA score for death was ≥19 points (area under the curve, 0.69; P = 0.041). Patients with scores ≥19, mGPS ≥1, albumin <3.5 g/dL, and C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/L had a significantly lower overall survival. According to the multivariate analysis, albumin <3.5 g/dL (hazard ratio [HR], 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-3.58), mGPS ≥1 (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.09-2.22), and PG-SGA score ≥19 (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.08-2.55) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival.

CONCLUSION

The severity of the systemic inflammation and the poor nutritional status predict survival and were considered independent prognostic factors. Thus they can be useful tools for nutritional evaluation in palliative care.

Development of Imminent Mortality Predictor for Advanced Cancer (IMPAC), a Tool to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Advanced Cancer

PURPOSE

End-of-life care for patients with advanced cancer is aggressive and costly. Oncologists inconsistently estimate life expectancy and address goals of care. Currently available prognostication tools are based on subjective clinical assessment. An objective prognostic tool could help oncologists and patients decide on a realistic plan for end-of-life care. We developed a predictive model (Imminent Mortality Predictor in Advanced Cancer [IMPAC]) for short-term mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer.

METHODS

Electronic health record data from 669 patients with advanced cancer who were discharged from Yale Cancer Center/Smilow Cancer Hospital were extracted. Statistical learning techniques were used to develop a tool to estimate survival probabilities. Patients were randomly split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets 20 times. We tested the predictive properties of IMPAC for mortality at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days past the day of admission.

RESULTS

For mortality within 90 days at a 40% sensitivity level, IMPAC has close to 60% positive predictive value. Patients estimated to have a greater than 50% chance of death within 90 days had a median survival time of 47 days. Patients estimated to have a less than 50% chance of death had a median survival of 290 days. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for IMPAC averaged greater than .70 for all time horizons tested. Estimated potential cost savings per patient was $15,413 (95% CI, $9,162 to $21,665) in 2014 constant dollars.

CONCLUSION

IMPAC, a novel prognostic tool, can generate life expectancy probabilities in real time and support oncologists in counseling patients about end-of-life care. Potentially avoidable costs are significant.

Performance Status, Prognostic Scoring, and Parenteral Nutrition Requirements Predict Survival in Patients with Advanced Cancer Receiving Home Parenteral Nutrition

We describe a cohort of Home Parenteral Nutrition (HPN) patients with advanced cancer in order to identify factors affecting prognosis. Demographic, anthropometric, biochemical and medical factors, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), and PN requirements were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed including Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox Regression, and correlation analyses. In total, 107 HPN patients (68 women, 39 men, mean age 57 yr) with advanced cancer were identified. The main indications for HPN were bowel obstruction (74.3%) and high output ostomies (14.3%). Cancer cachexia was present in 87.1% of patients. The hazard ratio (HR) for upper gastrointestinal and "other" cancers vs. gynaecological malignancy was 1.75 (p = 0.077) and 2.11 (p = 0.05), respectively. KPS score, GPS, PN volume, and PN potassium levels significantly predicted survival (HR_{KPS ≥50 vs <50} = 0.47; HR_{GPS = 2 vs. GPS = 0} = 3.19). In multivariate analysis, KPS and GPS remained significant predictors (p < 0.05), whilst PN volume reached borderline significance (p = 0.094). Survival was not significantly affected by the presence of metastatic disease, previous or concurrent surgery, chemo-radiotherapy, or indication for HPN (p > 0.05). Most patients passed away in their homes or hospice (77.9%). Performance status, prognostic scoring, and PN requirements may predict survival in patients with advanced cancer receiving HPN.

Quality of Life in Patients With Advanced Cancer: Differential Association With Performance Status and Systemic Inflammatory Response

PURPOSE

Quality of life is a key component of cancer care; however, the factors that determine quality of life are not well understood. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between quality of life parameters, performance status (PS), and the systemic inflammatory response in patients with advanced cancer.

METHODS

An international biobank of patients with advanced cancer was analyzed. Quality of life was assessed at a single time point by using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire C-30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). PS was assessed by using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) classification. Systemic inflammation was assessed by using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), which combines C-reactive protein and albumin. The relationship between quality of life parameters, ECOG PS, and the mGPS was examined.

RESULTS

Data were available for 2,520 patients, and the most common cancers were GI (585 patients [22.2%]) and pulmonary (443 patients [17.6%]). The median survival was 4.25 months (interquartile range, 1.36 to 12.9 months). Increasing mGPS (systemic inflammation) and deteriorating PS were associated with deterioration in quality-of-life parameters (P < .001). Increasing systemic inflammation was associated with deterioration in quality-of-life parameters independent of PS.

CONCLUSION

Systemic inflammation was associated with quality-of-life parameters independent of PS in patients with advanced cancer. Further investigation of these relationships in longitudinal studies and investigations of possible effects of attenuating systemic inflammation are now warranted.