Palliative Care Exposure Relative to Predicted Risk of Six-Month Mortality in Hospitalized Adults

Implementable Prediction of Pressure Injuries in Hospitalized Adults: Model Development and Validation

Background

Numerous pressure injury prediction models have been developed using electronic health record data, yet hospital-acquired pressure injuries (HAPIs) are increasing, which demonstrates the critical challenge of implementing these models in routine care.

Objective

To help bridge the gap between development and implementation, we sought to create a model that was feasible, broadly applicable, dynamic, actionable, and rigorously validated and then compare its performance to usual care (ie, the Braden scale).

Methods

We extracted electronic health record data from 197,991 adult hospital admissions with 51 candidate features. For risk prediction and feature selection, we used logistic regression with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach. To compare the model with usual care, we used the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), Brier score, slope, intercept, and integrated calibration index. The model was validated using a temporally staggered cohort.

Results

A total of 5458 HAPIs were identified between January 2018 and July 2022. We determined 22 features were necessary to achieve a parsimonious and highly accurate model. The top 5 features included tracheostomy, edema, central line, first albumin measure, and age. Our model achieved higher discrimination than the Braden scale (AUC 0.897, 95% CI 0.893-0.901 vs AUC 0.798, 95% CI 0.791-0.803).

Conclusions

We developed and validated an accurate prediction model for HAPIs that surpassed the standard-of-care risk assessment and fulfilled necessary elements for implementation. Future work includes a pragmatic randomized trial to assess whether our model improves patient outcomes.

Predictive Models for Palliative Care Needs of Advanced Cancer Patients Receiving Chemotherapy

CONTEXT

Early palliative care is recommended within eight-week of diagnosing advanced cancer. Although guidelines suggest routine screening to identify cancer patients who could benefit from palliative care, implementing screening can be challenging due to understaffing and time constraints.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and evaluate machine learning models for predicting specialist palliative care needs in advanced cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy, and to investigate if predictive models could substitute screening tools.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using supervised machine learning. The study included patients aged 18 or older, diagnosed with metastatic or stage IV cancer, who underwent chemotherapy and distress screening at a designated cancer hospital in Japan from April 1, 2018, to March 31, 2023. Specialist palliative care needs were assessed based on distress screening scores and expert evaluations. Data sources were hospital's cancer registry, health claims database, and nursing admission records. The predictive model was developed using XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm.

RESULTS

Out of the 1878 included patients, 561 were analyzed. Among them, 114 (20.3%) exhibited needs for specialist palliative care. After under-sampling to address data imbalance, the models achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.89 with 95.8% sensitivity and a specificity of 71.9%. After feature selection, the model retained five variables, including the patient-reported pain score, and showcased an 0.82 AUC.

CONCLUSION

Our models could forecast specialist palliative care needs for advanced cancer patients on chemotherapy. Using five variables as predictors could replace screening tools and has the potential to contribute to earlier palliative care.

Predicting Patient Mortality for Earlier Palliative Care Identification in Medicare Advantage Plans: Features of a Machine Learning Model

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) can offer greater precision and sensitivity in predicting Medicare patient end of life and potential need for palliative services compared to provider recommendations alone. However, earlier ML research on older community dwelling Medicare beneficiaries has provided insufficient exploration of key model feature impacts and the role of the social determinants of health.

OBJECTIVE

This study describes the development of a binary classification ML model predicting 1-year mortality among Medicare Advantage plan members aged ≥65 years (N=318,774) and further examines the top features of the predictive model.

METHODS

A light gradient-boosted trees model configuration was selected based on 5-fold cross-validation. The model was trained with 80% of cases (n=255,020) using randomized feature generation periods, with 20% (n=63,754) reserved as a holdout for validation. The final algorithm used 907 feature inputs extracted primarily from claims and administrative data capturing patient diagnoses, service utilization, demographics, and census tract-based social determinants index measures.

RESULTS

The total sample had an actual mortality prevalence of 3.9% in the 2018 outcome period. The final model correctly predicted 44.2% of patient expirations among the top 1% of highest risk members (AUC=0.84; 95% CI 0.83-0.85) versus 24.0% predicted by the model iteration using only age, gender, and select high-risk utilization features (AUC=0.74; 95% CI 0.73-0.74). The most important algorithm features included patient demographics, diagnoses, pharmacy utilization, mean costs, and certain social determinants of health.

CONCLUSIONS

The final ML model better predicts Medicare Advantage member end of life using a variety of routinely collected data and supports earlier patient identification for palliative care.

The use of natural language processing in palliative care research: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Natural language processing has been increasingly used in palliative care research over the last 5 years for its versatility and accuracy.

AIM

To evaluate and characterize natural language processing use in palliative care research, including the most commonly used natural language processing software and computational methods, data sources, trends in natural language processing use over time, and palliative care topics addressed.

DESIGN

A scoping review using the framework by Arksey and O'Malley and the updated recommendations proposed by Levac et al. was conducted.

SOURCES

PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, and IEEE Xplore databases were searched for palliative care studies that utilized natural language processing tools. Data on study characteristics and natural language processing instruments used were collected and relevant palliative care topics were identified.

RESULTS

197 relevant references were identified. Of these, 82 were included after full-text review. Studies were published in 48 different journals from 2007 to 2022. The average sample size was 21,541 (median 435). Thirty-two different natural language processing software and 33 machine-learning methods were identified. Nine main sources for data processing and 15 main palliative care topics across the included studies were identified. The most frequent topic was mortality and prognosis prediction. We also identified a trend where natural language processing was frequently used in analyzing clinical serious illness conversations extracted from audio recordings.

CONCLUSIONS

We found 82 papers on palliative care using natural language processing methods for a wide-range of topics and sources of data that could expand the use of this methodology. We encourage researchers to consider incorporating this cutting-edge research methodology in future studies to improve published palliative care data.