Online educative activities for solar ultraviolet radiation based on measurements of cloud amount and solar exposures

Measurements of biologically effective solar radiation using erythemal weighted broadband meters

In this paper, we describe conversion factors (CF) for the calculation of biologically effective irradiances (BEI) from erythemal irradiance for three effects: photosynthesis of previtamin D3, psoriasis healing, and inactivation of the SARS-Cov-2 virions. CFs were empirically derived from measurements of spectral solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation during all sky conditions at four mid-latitude sites in the Northern Hemisphere, namely Aosta, Belsk, Reading, and San Diego. These CFs were found to depend on solar zenith angle (SZA) and total column ozone, but are largely independent (within ± 5% for SZA < 60°) of local conditions such as surface albedo, visibility and other local atmospheric patterns. The values of these empirical CFs are consistent with analytical CFs derived with radiative transfer calculations (model FastRT) for clear-sky and overcast conditions. To validate these analytical CFs, one-hour radiant exposures for the three biological effects were calculated from erythemal measurements at Reading between 2012 and 2021 and compared with similar exposures calculated directly from the spectral UV measurements. The two datasets agreed within 10% for SZA < 65°, demonstrating the utility of the conversion method. These results suggest that the proposed analytical CFs can be used with confidence to estimate radiant exposures for the three biological effects from measurements of the UV Index at any northern mid-latitude site.

Optimization algorithms as training approach with hybrid deep learning methods to develop an ultraviolet index forecasting model

The solar ultraviolet index (UVI) is a key public health indicator to mitigate the ultraviolet-exposure related diseases. This study aimed to develop and compare the performances of different hybridised deep learning approaches with a convolutional neural network and long short-term memory referred to as CLSTM to forecast the daily UVI of Perth station, Western Australia. A complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) is incorporated coupled with four feature selection algorithms (i.e., genetic algorithm (GA), ant colony optimization (ACO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and differential evolution (DEV)) to understand the diverse combinations of the predictor variables acquired from three distinct datasets (i.e., satellite data, ground-based SILO data, and synoptic mode climate indices). The CEEMDAN-CLSTM model coupled with GA appeared to be an accurate forecasting system in capturing the UVI. Compared to the counterpart benchmark models, the results demonstrated the excellent forecasting capability (i.e., low error and high efficiency) of the recommended hybrid CEEMDAN-CLSTM model in apprehending the complex and non-linear relationships between predictor variables and the daily UVI. The study inference can considerably enhance real-time exposure advice for the public and help mitigate the potential for solar UV-exposure-related diseases such as melanoma.

Very short-term reactive forecasting of the solar ultraviolet index using an extreme learning machine integrated with the solar zenith angle

Exposure to erythemally-effective solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) that contributes to malignant keratinocyte cancers and associated health-risk is best mitigated through innovative decision-support systems, with global solar UV index (UVI) forecast necessary to inform real-time sun-protection behaviour recommendations. It follows that the UVI forecasting models are useful tools for such decision-making. In this study, a model for computationally-efficient data-driven forecasting of diffuse and global very short-term reactive (VSTR) (10-min lead-time) UVI, enhanced by drawing on the solar zenith angle (θ_s) data, was developed using an extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. An ELM algorithm typically serves to address complex and ill-defined forecasting problems. UV spectroradiometer situated in Toowoomba, Australia measured daily cycles (0500-1700h) of UVI over the austral summer period. After trialling activations functions based on sine, hard limit, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid and triangular and radial basis networks for best results, an optimal ELM architecture utilising logarithmic sigmoid equation in hidden layer, with lagged combinations of θ_s as the predictor data was developed. ELM's performance was evaluated using statistical metrics: correlation coefficient (r), Willmott's Index (WI), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E_NS), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) between observed and forecasted UVI. Using these metrics, the ELM model's performance was compared to that of existing methods: multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5 Model Tree, and a semi-empirical (Pro6UV) clear sky model. Based on RMSE and MAE values, the ELM model (0.255, 0.346, respectively) outperformed the MARS (0.310, 0.438) and M5 Model Tree (0.346, 0.466) models. Concurring with these metrics, the Willmott's Index for the ELM, MARS and M5 Model Tree models were 0.966, 0.942 and 0.934, respectively. About 57% of the ELM model's absolute errors were small in magnitude (±0.25), whereas the MARS and M5 Model Tree models generated 53% and 48% of such errors, respectively, indicating the latter models' errors to be distributed in larger magnitude error range. In terms of peak global UVI forecasting, with half the level of error, the ELM model outperformed MARS and M5 Model Tree. A comparison of the magnitude of hourly-cumulated errors of 10-min lead time forecasts for diffuse and global UVI highlighted ELM model's greater accuracy compared to MARS, M5 Model Tree or Pro6UV models. This confirmed the versatility of an ELM model drawing on θ_sdata for VSTR forecasting of UVI at near real-time horizon. When applied to the goal of enhancing expert systems, ELM-based accurate forecasts capable of reacting quickly to measured conditions can enhance real-time exposure advice for the public, mitigating the potential for solar UV-exposure-related disease.