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Ehtemam H, Sadeghi Esfahlani S, Sanaei A, Ghaemi MM, Hajesmaeel-Gohari S, Rahimisadegh R, Bahaadinbeigy K, Ghasemian F, Shirvani H. Role of machine learning algorithms in suicide risk prediction: a systematic review-meta analysis of clinical studies. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2024; 24:138. [PMID: 38802823 PMCID: PMC11129374 DOI: 10.1186/s12911-024-02524-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Suicide is a complex and multifactorial public health problem. Understanding and addressing the various factors associated with suicide is crucial for prevention and intervention efforts. Machine learning (ML) could enhance the prediction of suicide attempts. METHOD A systematic review was performed using PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and SID databases. We aim to evaluate the performance of ML algorithms and summarize their effects, gather relevant and reliable information to synthesize existing evidence, identify knowledge gaps, and provide a comprehensive list of the suicide risk factors using mixed method approach. RESULTS Forty-one studies published between 2011 and 2022, which matched inclusion criteria, were chosen as suitable. We included studies aimed at predicting the suicide risk by machine learning algorithms except natural language processing (NLP) and image processing. The neural network (NN) algorithm exhibited the lowest accuracy at 0.70, whereas the random forest demonstrated the highest accuracy, reaching 0.94. The study assessed the COX and random forest models and observed a minimum area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.54. In contrast, the XGBoost classifier yielded the highest AUC value, reaching 0.97. These specific AUC values emphasize the algorithm-specific performance in capturing the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity for suicide risk prediction. Furthermore, our investigation identified several common suicide risk factors, including age, gender, substance abuse, depression, anxiety, alcohol consumption, marital status, income, education, and occupation. This comprehensive analysis contributes valuable insights into the multifaceted nature of suicide risk, providing a foundation for targeted preventive strategies and intervention efforts. CONCLUSIONS The effectiveness of ML algorithms and their application in predicting suicide risk has been controversial. There is a need for more studies on these algorithms in clinical settings, and the related ethical concerns require further clarification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Houriyeh Ehtemam
- School of Engineering and the Built Environment, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, UK
| | | | - Alireza Sanaei
- School of Engineering and the Built Environment, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, UK
| | - Mohammad Mehdi Ghaemi
- Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Sadrieh Hajesmaeel-Gohari
- Medical Informatics Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Rohaneh Rahimisadegh
- Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Kambiz Bahaadinbeigy
- Medical Informatics Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Fahimeh Ghasemian
- Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
| | - Hassan Shirvani
- School of Engineering and the Built Environment, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, UK
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Somé NH, Noormohammadpour P, Lange S. The use of machine learning on administrative and survey data to predict suicidal thoughts and behaviors: a systematic review. Front Psychiatry 2024; 15:1291362. [PMID: 38501090 PMCID: PMC10944962 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1291362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2023] [Accepted: 02/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Machine learning is a promising tool in the area of suicide prevention due to its ability to combine the effects of multiple risk factors and complex interactions. The power of machine learning has led to an influx of studies on suicide prediction, as well as a few recent reviews. Our study distinguished between data sources and reported the most important predictors of suicide outcomes identified in the literature. Objective Our study aimed to identify studies that applied machine learning techniques to administrative and survey data, summarize performance metrics reported in those studies, and enumerate the important risk factors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors identified. Methods A systematic literature search of PubMed, Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED) to identify all studies that have used machine learning to predict suicidal thoughts and behaviors using administrative and survey data was performed. The search was conducted for articles published between January 1, 2019 and May 11, 2022. In addition, all articles identified in three recently published systematic reviews (the last of which included studies up until January 1, 2019) were retained if they met our inclusion criteria. The predictive power of machine learning methods in predicting suicidal thoughts and behaviors was explored using box plots to summarize the distribution of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values by machine learning method and suicide outcome (i.e., suicidal thoughts, suicide attempt, and death by suicide). Mean AUCs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for each suicide outcome by study design, data source, total sample size, sample size of cases, and machine learning methods employed. The most important risk factors were listed. Results The search strategy identified 2,200 unique records, of which 104 articles met the inclusion criteria. Machine learning algorithms achieved good prediction of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (i.e., an AUC between 0.80 and 0.89); however, their predictive power appears to differ across suicide outcomes. The boosting algorithms achieved good prediction of suicidal thoughts, death by suicide, and all suicide outcomes combined, while neural network algorithms achieved good prediction of suicide attempts. The risk factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors differed depending on the data source and the population under study. Conclusion The predictive utility of machine learning for suicidal thoughts and behaviors largely depends on the approach used. The findings of the current review should prove helpful in preparing future machine learning models using administrative and survey data. Systematic review registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022333454 identifier CRD42022333454.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nibene H. Somé
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, London, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Pardis Noormohammadpour
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Shannon Lange
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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Tio ES, Misztal MC, Felsky D. Evidence for the biopsychosocial model of suicide: a review of whole person modeling studies using machine learning. Front Psychiatry 2024; 14:1294666. [PMID: 38274429 PMCID: PMC10808719 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1294666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Traditional approaches to modeling suicide-related thoughts and behaviors focus on few data types from often-siloed disciplines. While psychosocial aspects of risk for these phenotypes are frequently studied, there is a lack of research assessing their impact in the context of biological factors, which are important in determining an individual's fulsome risk profile. To directly test this biopsychosocial model of suicide and identify the relative importance of predictive measures when considered together, a transdisciplinary, multivariate approach is needed. Here, we systematically review the emerging literature on large-scale studies using machine learning to integrate measures of psychological, social, and biological factors simultaneously in the study of suicide. Methods We conducted a systematic review of studies that used machine learning to model suicide-related outcomes in human populations including at least one predictor from each of biological, psychological, and sociological data domains. Electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, PubMed, and Web of Science were searched for reports published between August 2013 and August 30, 2023. We evaluated populations studied, features emerging most consistently as risk or resilience factors, methods used, and strength of evidence for or against the biopsychosocial model of suicide. Results Out of 518 full-text articles screened, we identified a total of 20 studies meeting our inclusion criteria, including eight studies conducted in general population samples and 12 in clinical populations. Common important features identified included depressive and anxious symptoms, comorbid psychiatric disorders, social behaviors, lifestyle factors such as exercise, alcohol intake, smoking exposure, and marital and vocational status, and biological factors such as hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis activity markers, sleep-related measures, and selected genetic markers. A minority of studies conducted iterative modeling testing each data type for contribution to model performance, instead of reporting basic measures of relative feature importance. Conclusion Studies combining biopsychosocial measures to predict suicide-related phenotypes are beginning to proliferate. This literature provides some early empirical evidence for the biopsychosocial model of suicide, though it is marred by harmonization challenges. For future studies, more specific definitions of suicide-related outcomes, inclusion of a greater breadth of biological data, and more diversity in study populations will be needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Earvin S. Tio
- Krembil Centre for Neuroinformatics, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Melissa C. Misztal
- Krembil Centre for Neuroinformatics, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Daniel Felsky
- Krembil Centre for Neuroinformatics, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Biostatistics Division, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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Sheu YH, Sun J, Lee H, Castro VM, Barak-Corren Y, Song E, Madsen EM, Gordon WJ, Kohane IS, Churchill SE, Reis BY, Cai T, Smoller JW. An efficient landmark model for prediction of suicide attempts in multiple clinical settings. Psychiatry Res 2023; 323:115175. [PMID: 37003169 PMCID: PMC10267893 DOI: 10.1016/j.psychres.2023.115175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2022] [Revised: 03/16/2023] [Accepted: 03/18/2023] [Indexed: 04/03/2023]
Abstract
Growing evidence has shown that applying machine learning models to large clinical data sources may exceed clinician performance in suicide risk stratification. However, many existing prediction models either suffer from "temporal bias" (a bias that stems from using case-control sampling) or require training on all available patient visit data. Here, we adopt a "landmark model" framework that aligns with clinical practice for prediction of suicide-related behaviors (SRBs) using a large electronic health record database. Using the landmark approach, we developed models for SRB prediction (regularized Cox regression and random survival forest) that establish a time-point (e.g., clinical visit) from which predictions are made over user-specified prediction windows using historical information up to that point. We applied this approach to cohorts from three clinical settings: general outpatient, psychiatric emergency department, and psychiatric inpatients, for varying prediction windows and lengths of historical data. Models achieved high discriminative performance (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 0.74-0.93 for the Cox model) across different prediction windows and settings, even with relatively short periods of historical data. In short, we developed accurate, dynamic SRB risk prediction models with the landmark approach that reduce bias and enhance the reliability and portability of suicide risk prediction models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi-Han Sheu
- Center for Precision Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Psychiatric and Neurodevelopmental Genetics Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA 02215, USA; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, 415 Main St, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - Jiehuan Sun
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Illinois Chicago, 1603W. Taylor St., Chicago, IL 60612, USA
| | - Hyunjoon Lee
- Center for Precision Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Psychiatric and Neurodevelopmental Genetics Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Victor M Castro
- Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA 02215, USA; Center for Quantitative Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - Yuval Barak-Corren
- Department of Pediatrics, Boston Children's Hospital, 300 Longwood Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Schneider Children's Medical Center of Israel, 14 Kaplan Street, Petaẖ Tiqwa, Central, Israel
| | - Eugene Song
- Center for Precision Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Psychiatric and Neurodevelopmental Genetics Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Emily M Madsen
- Center for Precision Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Psychiatric and Neurodevelopmental Genetics Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - William J Gordon
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, 10 Shattuck Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Isaac S Kohane
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, 10 Shattuck Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Susanne E Churchill
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, 10 Shattuck Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Ben Y Reis
- Department of Pediatrics, Boston Children's Hospital, 300 Longwood Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, 10 Shattuck Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Tianxi Cai
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, 10 Shattuck Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Translational Data Science Center for a Learning Health System, Harvard University, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jordan W Smoller
- Center for Precision Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Psychiatric and Neurodevelopmental Genetics Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 185 Cambridge Street, Boston, MA 02114, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, 401 Park Drive, Boston, MA 02215, USA; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, 415 Main St, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.
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Hopkins D, Rickwood DJ, Hallford DJ, Watsford C. Structured data vs. unstructured data in machine learning prediction models for suicidal behaviors: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Front Digit Health 2022; 4:945006. [PMID: 35983407 PMCID: PMC9378826 DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2022.945006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2022] [Accepted: 06/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Suicide remains a leading cause of preventable death worldwide, despite advances in research and decreases in mental health stigma through government health campaigns. Machine learning (ML), a type of artificial intelligence (AI), is the use of algorithms to simulate and imitate human cognition. Given the lack of improvement in clinician-based suicide prediction over time, advancements in technology have allowed for novel approaches to predicting suicide risk. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to synthesize current research regarding data sources in ML prediction of suicide risk, incorporating and comparing outcomes between structured data (human interpretable such as psychometric instruments) and unstructured data (only machine interpretable such as electronic health records). Online databases and gray literature were searched for studies relating to ML and suicide risk prediction. There were 31 eligible studies. The outcome for all studies combined was AUC = 0.860, structured data showed AUC = 0.873, and unstructured data was calculated at AUC = 0.866. There was substantial heterogeneity between the studies, the sources of which were unable to be defined. The studies showed good accuracy levels in the prediction of suicide risk behavior overall. Structured data and unstructured data also showed similar outcome accuracy according to meta-analysis, despite different volumes and types of input data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danielle Hopkins
- Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia
- *Correspondence: Danielle Hopkins
| | | | | | - Clare Watsford
- Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia
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Gim JA. A Genomic Information Management System for Maintaining Healthy Genomic States and Application of Genomic Big Data in Clinical Research. Int J Mol Sci 2022; 23:5963. [PMID: 35682641 PMCID: PMC9180925 DOI: 10.3390/ijms23115963] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2022] [Revised: 05/22/2022] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Improvements in next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology and computer systems have enabled personalized therapies based on genomic information. Recently, health management strategies using genomics and big data have been developed for application in medicine and public health science. In this review, I first discuss the development of a genomic information management system (GIMS) to maintain a highly detailed health record and detect diseases by collecting the genomic information of one individual over time. Maintaining a health record and detecting abnormal genomic states are important; thus, the development of a GIMS is necessary. Based on the current research status, open public data, and databases, I discuss the possibility of a GIMS for clinical use. I also discuss how the analysis of genomic information as big data can be applied for clinical and research purposes. Tremendous volumes of genomic information are being generated, and the development of methods for the collection, cleansing, storing, indexing, and serving must progress under legal regulation. Genetic information is a type of personal information and is covered under privacy protection; here, I examine the regulations on the use of genetic information in different countries. This review provides useful insights for scientists and clinicians who wish to use genomic information for healthy aging and personalized medicine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeong-An Gim
- Medical Science Research Center, College of Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul 08308, Korea
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Rocha DDM, Cavalcante AKDCB, Oliveira ACD, Benício CDAV, Santos AMRD, Nogueira LT. Contributions of health technologies in risk assessment for suicide behavior: an integrative review. Rev Bras Enferm 2021; 74Suppl 3:e20200205. [PMID: 33759967 DOI: 10.1590/0034-7167-2020-0205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2020] [Accepted: 09/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE to identify how health technologies contribute to risk assessment for suicidal behavior. METHODS an integrative review carried out on the MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, SCOPUS, LILACS and BDENF databases. The sample consisted of 12 primary studies, with no temporal or language delimitation. Analysis of results occurred descriptively. RESULTS the technologies included assistance and teaching aspects favorable to data screening, monitoring and navigation, capable of predicting individual, biological, clinical, psychological, environmental and social markers for suicidal behavior. Thus, measurement scale, software and computational algorithms constituted valid and sensitive instruments for improving performance, expanding skills and knowledge, good care practices, effective communication and assistance planning. CONCLUSION the identified technologies proved to be effective in identifying risk states for suicidal behavior, representing effective resources for directing care and necessary interventions.
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Smith DMY, Lipson SM, Wang SB, Fox KR. Online Methods in Adolescent Self-Injury Research: Challenges and Recommendations. JOURNAL OF CLINICAL CHILD AND ADOLESCENT PSYCHOLOGY 2021; 51:143-154. [DOI: 10.1080/15374416.2021.1875325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Diana M. Y. Smith
- Department of Psychology, University of California San Diego Medical School
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