The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the road deaths to road injuries ratio and economic growth

Can the asymmetry of Okun's law be interpreted from a social perspective? Evidence from the World Bank

Okun's law is generally interpreted in economic terms. This paper is interpreted from a social perspective through regression and mediating effect models. Okun's law is demonstrated based on data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) dataset. There is indeed a relationship between unemployment and economic growth, with unemployment negatively affecting economic growth after controlling for the two-way causality problem. This result remains robust after replacing the core explanatory variables. This paper interprets the asymmetry of Okun's law from a social perspective, using alcohol consumption as a mediating variable to measure the harm caused by unemployment to the unemployed. Analysis of the data reveals that alcohol consumption mediates between unemployment and economic growth. Unemployment increases alcohol consumption, which causes incurable harm to the unemployed. It reduces the willingness and probability of the unemployed to re-employ and further reduces the potential for economic growth. This is why the economic expansion did not lead to employment growth, revealing the asymmetry of Okun's law. The gender-specific heterogeneity analysis found that the impact of unemployment on economic growth did not vary much by gender.

The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the COVID-19 mortality rate and economic performance

This paper discusses the findings of an empirical analysis of the Kuznets, or reverse U-shaped relationship, between the COVID-19 mortality rate and economic performance. In the early stages of economic development, the COVID-19 mortality rate is anticipated to rise with rising economic activity and urbanization. Eventually, the mortality rate decreases at higher economic development levels as people and the government are more capable of investing in disease abatement measures. The quality of political institutions, wealth distribution, urbanization, vaccination rate, and improvements in healthcare systems are hypothesized to affect the COVID-19 mortality rate. Examining this relationship can be effective in understanding the change in the COVID-19 mortality rate at different economic performance stages and in identifying appropriate preventive measures. This study employed the negative binomial regression to model a cross-sectional dataset of 137 countries. Results indicated that the relationship between the per-head gross domestic product (GDP) level and the COVID-19 mortality rate appeared to follow a pattern like the Kuznets curve, implying that changes in institutional quality, healthcare advancements, wealth distribution, urbanization, vaccination rate, and the percentage of the elderly population were significant in explaining the relationship. Improvement of the healthcare system has a notable effect on lowering the COVID-19 mortality rate under more effective government conditions. Additionally, the results suggested that a higher per-head GDP is required to reverse the rising trend of the mortality rate under higher income inequality. Based on these results, preventive measures, and policies to reduce COVID-19 mortalities were recommended in the conclusion section.

The motorcycle deaths to passenger car deaths ratio and economic performance: A panel data analysis

The existing literature in road safety revealed that the relationship between motorcycle deaths and per-head income follows a Kuznets or reverse U-curve pattern, whereby motorcycle deaths incline at lower income levels but decline once the per-head income has exceeded a threshold level. The same reverse U-curve relationship was also observed between per-head income and other road injury-related variables, including road deaths, road injuries, as well as road deaths to road injuries ratio. Evidence showed that motorcycles and passenger cars are the dominant vehicle modes and contributed significantly to global road deaths. The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the motorcycle deaths to passenger car deaths (MDC) ratio and per-head Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examining the relationship between the MDC ratio and GDP per capita can be effective in understanding the relative change between motorcycle and passenger car deaths at different economic development stages, as well as identifying appropriate preventive measures. We apply a panel linear regression analysis on a panel of 38 countries over the period 1965-2013. Result demonstrated that there is a reverse U-curve relationship between the MDC ratio and the logarithm of GDP per capita. This implies that, at lower levels of GDP per capita, motorcycle deaths were more prevalent than passenger car deaths, whereas as the level of GDP per capita rises, passenger car deaths became relatively prevalent than motorcycle deaths. Moreover, there is a reverse U-shaped relationship between motorcycle ownership to passenger car ownership ratio (MPC) and the MDC ratio, while a U-shaped relationship exists between relative growth in higher mobility roads as compared to higher accessibility roads (MPA) and the MDC ratio. Based on our results, policies and interventions to reduce motorcycle and passenger car deaths were suggested in the conclusion of the paper.

Motorized 2-3 wheelers death rates over a decade: a global study

BACKGROUND

Motorized 2-3-wheelers-related death is high due to the exposed body of the driver/passenger and the high speed. The United Nation (UN) Decade of Action for road safety aimed to reduce road traffic deaths by 50% by the year 2020. We aimed to study the factors affecting the death rates of motorized 2-3 wheelers injured victims and whether the reduction in the death rates has met the UN target.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from the WHO Global Status Reports on Road Safety published over 2009 to 2018 which covered the years of 2007 to 2016. Studied variables included motorized 2-3 wheelers death rates, percentage of helmet-wearing rate, helmet law enforcement, speed law enforcement, gross national income per capita, vehicles/person ratio, and motorized 2-3 wheelers/person ratio. A mixed linear model was used to define factors affecting the change of motorized 2-3 wheelers death rates over time.

RESULTS

The global mean motorized 2-3 wheelers death rates increased from 2.37/100,000 population to 3.23/100,000 population over the studied decade (a relative ratio of 1.36) which was not statistically significant. Factors that affected mortality included GNI (p = 0.025), motorized 2-3 wheelers per person ratio (p < 0.0001), percentage of helmet wearing rate (p = 0.046), and the interaction between vehicle/person ratio and motorized 2-3 wheelers/person ratio (p = 0.016). There was a significant increase in the death rates over time in the low-income countries (a relative ratio of 2.52, p = 0.019, Friedman test), and middle-income countries (a relative ratio of 1.46, p < 0.0001, Friedman test), compared with a significant decrease in the high-income countries (a relative ratio of 0.72, p < 0.0001, Friedman test).

CONCLUSIONS

Global mortality of motorized 2-3 wheelers has increased by a relative ratio of 1.36 over a recent decade. The UN target of reducing death was not met. The increase was related to the increase in motorized 2-3 wheelers per person ratio and economic inequity which has to be addressed globally. The economic global gap significantly impacts the mortality rates of motorized 2-3 wheelers.