Alpha fetoprotein changes predict hepatocellular carcinoma survival beyond the Milan criteria after hepatectomy

A Longitudinal Study of AFP Trajectories and Clinical Outcomes in Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy

Background

Previous studies have shown that the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been a key tumour marker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its definition remains controversial. Recently, a new study has explored and defined the AFP serological response and used it to explain the subclass of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (IM-HCC) with "sharp-falling" AFP change after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). It may be a new and simple tool for assessing the prognosis of patients. This study aims to explore a simplified AFP trajectory and its impact on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) for IM-HCC after hepatectomy.

Patients and Methods

Between January 2007 and May 2012, data from the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center was examined in this longitudinal, retrospective cohort study. A generalized additive model was applied to distinguish potential AFP dynamic trajectories. The Kaplan-Meier method was applied to analyze OS and DFS, and multivariate Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival.

Results

144 patients who had IM-HCC with at least three AFP repeat measurements were included in the study. Three similar trajectories are displayed using the generalized additive model: low-stable (35.4%; n = 51), high-rising (36.1%; n = 52), and sharp-falling (28.5%; n = 41). Compared with the low-stable class, the aHRs for death were 2.84 (1.50, 5.41) and 0.59 (0.25, 1.40) for the high-rising and sharp-falling classes, adjusted by age and log AFP. Simplified AFP trajectory had higher relative importance than sex, intrahepatic tumor number, Child-Pugh class, and baseline AFP.

Conclusion

The simplified AFP trajectory is a promising biomarker for IM-HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy. In the future, it should be verified by a larger population containing various stages of HCC.

AFP Response to Locoregional Therapy Can Stratify the Risk of Tumor Recurrence in HCC Patients after Living Donor Liver Transplantation

(1) Background: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been incorporated into the selection criteria of liver transplantation and been used to predict the outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence. Locoregional therapy (LRT) is recommended for bridging or downstaging in HCC patients listed for liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the AFP response to LRT on the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). (2) Methods: This retrospective study included 370 HCC LDLT recipients with pretransplant LRT from 2000 to 2016. The patients were divided into four groups according to AFP response to LRT. (3) Results: The nonresponse group had the worst 5-year cumulative recurrence rates whereas the complete-response group (patients with abnormal AFP before LRT and with normal AFP after LRT) had the best 5-year cumulative recurrence rate among the four groups. The 5-year cumulative recurrence rate of the partial-response group (AFP response was over 15% lower) was comparable to the control group. (4) Conclusions: AFP response to LRT can be used to stratify the risk of HCC recurrence after LDLT. If a partial AFP response of over 15% declineis achieved, a comparable result to the control can be expected.

Association between early response of alpha-fetoprotein and treatment efficacy of systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study from China

Background

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a well-identified biomarker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, only limited AFP-related studies have evaluated its early response to systemic therapy. This study was performed with the aim of assessing the value of early AFP response in predicting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in advanced HCC patients receiving systemic therapy.

Methods

This cohort study included HCC patients with baseline AFP ≥ 200 ng/ml and no prior treatment history. A > 20% decline in the serum AFP level from baseline to the first follow-up (i.e., 4~6 weeks after treatment) was defined as an early AFP response. Patient demographic information, clinical characteristics, radiological response, and survival rates were compared between patients with early AFP response and patients without early AFP response. We further utilized multivariate Cox regression to seek characteristics related to OS and PFS.

Results

Among 154 patients, 69 patients (44.8%) showed an early AFP response. The disease control rate (76.8 vs. 54.1%; P = 0.003) and objective response rate (38.4 vs. 11.8%; P = 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with an early AFP response. By performing multivariate analysis, early AFP response remained a prognostic factor for longer PFS (HR 0.546; 95% CI 0.371-0.804; P = 0.002) and longer OS (HR 0.529; 95% CI 0.335-0.834; P = 0.006).

Conclusion

An early AFP response is correlated with longer overall survival and progression-free survival for advanced HCC patients receiving systemic therapy. Moreover, an early AFP response is an independent prognostic factor for longer OS and PFS.

Evaluation of high-risk factors and the diagnostic value of alpha-fetoprotein in the stratification of primary liver cancer

BACKGROUND

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is one of the diagnostic standards for primary liver cancer (PLC); however, AFP exhibits insufficient sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing PLC.

AIM

To evaluate the effects of high-risk factors and the diagnostic value of AFP in stratified PLC.

METHODS

In total, 289 PLC cases from 2013 to 2019 were selected for analysis. First, the contributions of high-risk factors in stratifying PLC were compared according to the following criteria: Child–Pugh score, clinical stage of liver cirrhosis, tumor size, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage. Then, the diagnostic value of AFP was evaluated in different stratifications of PLC by receiver operating characteristic curves. For PLC cases in which AFP played little role, the diagnostic values of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and AFP were analyzed.

RESULTS

The roles of high-risk factors differed in stratified PLC. The incidence of smoking and drinking history was higher in PLC with Child–Pugh scores of C (P < 0.0167). The hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection rate in PLC with cirrhosis was more than in PLC without cirrhosis (P < 0.0167). Small tumors were more prone to cirrhosis than large tumors (P < 0.005). BCLC stage D PLC was more likely to be associated with HBV infection and cirrhosis (P < 0.0083). AFP levels were higher in PLC with cirrhosis, diffuse tumors, and BCLC stage D disease. In diagnosing PLC defined as Child–Pugh A, B, and C, massive hepatoma, diffuse hepatoma, BCLC stage B, C, and D, and AFP showed significant diagnostic value [all area under the curve (AUC) > 0.700]. However, these measures were meaningless (AUC < 0.600) in small hepatomas and BCLC A stage PLC, but could be replaced by the combined detection of CEA, CA 19-9, GGT, and AFP (AUC = 0.810 and 0.846, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Stratification of PLC was essential for precise diagnoses and benefited from evaluating AFP levels.

Tumor Response and Nomogram-Based Prognostic Stratification for Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Drug-Eluting Beads Transarterial Chemoembolization

Purpose

To explore the tumor response and propose a nomogram-based prognostic stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE).

Patients and Methods

From the database of two centers, patients who received DEB-TACE as an initial treatment were enrolled and divided into the training and validation sets. The tumor response after DEB-TACE was estimated according to the Modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors. Using the independent survival predictors in the training set, a nomogram was constructed and validated internally and externally by measuring concordance index (C-index) and calibration. A prognostic stratification based on the nomogram was established.

Results

A total of 335 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. Alkaline phosphatase level, tumor maximum diameter, tumor capsule and portal vein invasion were interrelated with the achievement of complete release after DEB-TACE. Alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh class, tumor maximum diameter, tumor number, tumor extent and portal vein invasion were integrated into the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with C-indexes of 0.735 and 0.854 and higher area under the curve (AUC) than BCLC and CNLC staging systems in the internal and external validation sets. The prognostic stratification classified patients into three different risk groups, which had significant differences in survival, complete release and objective response rate between any two groups (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

The nomogram-based prognostic stratification has a good distinction and may help to identify the patients benefiting from DEB-TACE.

The impact of tumor burden at the initial hepatectomy on the recurrence-to-death survival after repeat surgical resection/radiofrequency ablation: a retrospective study

Background

Previous studies have reported the surgical resection (SR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) could achieve comparable recurrence-to-death survival (RTDS). However, the impact of primary tumor burden on RTDS of patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following SR or RFA has not been clarified.

Methods

From January 2009 to March 2015, 171 patients who underwent initial hepatectomy and second curative treatments in West China Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan–Meier method. Risk factors were identified using the Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

At initial hepatectomy, 96 patients (56.1%) were diagnosed with HCC within the Milan criteria (MC), and 75 patients (43.9%) were HCC beyond the MC. The clinicopathological features and re-treatment methods of recurrent HCC were similar between patients with primary HCC within or beyond the MC. Patients with primary HCC within the MC had longer recurrence time (31.4 ± 24.2 months vs. 20.2 ± 16 months, P < 0.001). The 1- and 3- year RTDS within and beyond the MC group were 88.8%, 57.6% and 79.0%, 46.3%, respectively (P = 0.093). In multivariate analysis, the recurrence time, tumor size and AFP > 400 ng/mL at the time of recurrence were associated with RTDS.

Conclusions

The primary tumor burden had no impact on RTDS, but had an impact on recurrence time. The recurrence time had an impact on RTDS and might be a good index to reflect the biology of recurrent HCC.

The Dynamic Changes of AFP From Baseline to Recurrence as an Excellent Prognostic Factor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Locoregional Therapy: A 5-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Although many studies have confirmed the prognostic value of preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the association between AFP at baseline (b-AFP), subsequent AFP at relapse (r-AFP), and AFP alteration and overall survival in HCC patients receiving locoregional therapy has rarely been systematically elucidated.

Patients and Methods

A total of 583 subjects with newly diagnosis of virus-related HCC who were admitted to Beijing You ‘an Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016 were prospectively enrolled. The influence of b-AFP, subsequent r-AFP, and AFP alteration on relapse and post-recurrence survival were analyzed.

Results

By the end of follow-up, a total of 431 (73.9%) patients relapsed and 200 (34.3%) died. Patients with positive b-AFP had a 24% increased risk of recurrence compared with those who were negative. Patients with positive r-AFP had a 68% increased risk of death after relapse compared with those who were negative. The cumulative recurrence-death survival (RDS) rates for 1, 3, 5 years in patients with negative r-AFP were 85.6% (184/215), 70.2%(151/215), and 67.4%(145/215), while the corresponding rates were 75.1% (154/205), 51.2% (105/205), and 48.8% (100/205) in those with positive AFP (P<0.001). 35 (21.6%) of the 162 patients with negative b-AFP turned positive at the time of recurrence, and of this subset, only 12 (34.3%) survived. Of the 255 patients with positive b-AFP, 86 (33.7%) turned negative at the time of relapse, and of this subset, only 30 (34.9%) died. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative RDS rates were also compared among groups stratified by AFP at baseline and relapse. The present study found that patients with positive AFP at baseline and relapse, as well as those who were negative turned positive, had the shortest RDS and OS.

Conclusions

Not only AFP at baseline but also subsequent AFP at relapse can be used to predict a post-recurrence survival, which can help evaluate mortality risk stratification of patients after relapse.

Association of Postoperative Biomarker Response with Recurrence and Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and High Alpha-Fetoprotein Expressions (>400 ng/ml)

Background

High alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) expressions (>400 ng/mL) are associated with poor oncological characteristics for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prognosis after liver resection for high-AFP HCC is poorly studied. To investigate long-term recurrence and survival after hepatectomy for high-AFP HCC, and to identify the predictive value of postoperative incomplete biomarker response (IBR) on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

Methods

Patients undergoing curative resection for high-AFP HCC were analyzed. According to the decline magnitude of serum AFP as measured at first follow-up (4~6 weeks after surgery), all patients were divided into the complete biomarker response (CBR) and IBR groups. Characteristics, recurrence, and survival rates were compared. Univariate and Multivariate Cox-regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors associated with poorer OS and RFS after liver resection for high-AFP HCC.

Results

Among 549 patients, the overall and early recurrence rates in patients with IBR were significantly higher than patients with CBR (97.8%vs.56.4%, and 92.5%vs.33.3%, both P<0.001). On multivariate analysis, postoperative IBR was the strongest risk factor with the highest hazard ratio in predicting poor OS (HR 2.97; 95% CI 2.49~3.45; P<0.001) and RFS (HR 4.29; 95% CI 3.31~5.55; P<0.001).

Conclusion

Postoperative biomarker response of serum AFP can be used in predicting recurrence and survival for high-AFP HCC patients. Once postoperative IBR was identified at first follow-up, subsequent enhanced recurrence surveillance and available treatments against recurrence should actively be considered.

Elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein levels are associated with poor prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

The relationship between the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level and the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection remains unknown. This study aims to assess this relationship.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were systematically utilised. Meta-analysis was conducted for the outcomes of the recurrence-free survival (RFS) and the overall survival (OS) by comparing the high AFP group with the low AFP group.

RESULTS

The studies included 61 manuscripts with 35,461 patients. The summary hazard ratio (HR) for RFS was 1.501 (95% CI 1.355-1.662; Z = 7.81, P < 0.00001) when comparing the high AFP group with the low AFP group. Sensitivity analysis only included adjusted HRs, with the summary HR being 1.563 (95% CI 1.381-1.768; Z = 7.10, P < 0.00001). The summary HR for OS was 1.565 (95% CI 1.439-1.701; Z = 10.52, P < 0.00001) when comparing two AFP groups. Sensitivity analysis showed that the summary HR was 1.611 (95% CI 1.456-1.782; Z = 9.24, P < 0.00001).

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis indicated that elevated serum AFP levels are associated with poor prognosis of HCC after surgical resection.

A Practical Model is Equivalent to the BALAD or BALAD-2 Score in Predicting Long-term Survival after Hepatectomy in Chinese Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Aim: To evaluate the predictive value of the BALAD and BALAD-2 scores on long-term survival after hepatectomy in Chinese hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and to attempt to establish a more practical or effective model.

Methods: A total of 251 HCC patients underwent hepatectomy were recruited. The BALAD and BALAD-2 scores were calculated with total bilirubin, albumin, alpha-fetoprotein, Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin. The associations of the two scores and their components with the overall survival were analyzed. Finally, three prediction models were explored and constructed.

Results: We observed that HCC patients had 5-year survival rates that worsened with increasement of BALAD and BALAD-2 scores. The BALAD and BALAD-2 scores demonstrated fine value in predicting overall survival with Harrell-C statistics of 0.665 (0.618-0.712) and 0.603 (0.554-0.636). After two variables, largest tumor size and BMI, were included in BALAD [0.720 (0.671-0.769)] or BALAD-2 [0.701 (0.649-0.751)] multivariate models, the Harrell-C statistic increased significantly than BALAD (P=0.048) or BALAD-2 (P<0.001) alone. Taking into account availability and expense, an equivalent BAA-BS model was established based on total bilirubin, albumin, AFP, BMI and largest tumor size. The Harrell-C statistic of BAA-BS model [0.723(0.674-0.772)] was similar to that of BALAD (P=0.820) or BALAD-2 (P=0.209) multivariate model. And, the continuous net reclassification index and integrated discriminatory improvement were not statistically different. Finally, a nomogram of the equivalent BAA-BS model was constructed to assist surgeons and patients in predicting 5-year survival rates.

Conclusion: Both BALAD and BALAD-2 scores were highly suitable for predicting long-term survival after hepatectomy in Chinese HCC patients. A significant increase in predictive efficacy was observed after the addition of largest tumor size and BMI to BALAD or BALAD-2 score. Even if AFP-L3 and DCP are not detected, an equivalent BAA-BS model also obtained an excellent discriminatory performance.

A-G Score Associated With Outcomes in Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Hepatectomy

Aim: The study aimed to investigate the clinical significance of preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) (A-G score) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

Methods: A total of 474 solitary HCC patients were included. Survival analysis was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic factors were analyzed in a multivariate model. The comparison of the predictive value of AFP, GGT, and A-G score was performed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Of the 474 patients, 137(28.9%), 241(50.8%), and 96(20.3%) patients were assigned to A-G score 0, 1, and 2, respectively. In multivariate analysis, A-G score, tumor size, microvascular invasion, tumor differentiation, satellite lesion, and state of HBV infection were independently predictive factors for RFS of solitary HCC patients. The A-G score could significantly stratify solitary HCC patients with a distinguished prognosis. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS and OS among patients with A-G score 1 was better than that of patients with A-G score 2 and worse than that of patients with A-G score 0(all p < 0.05). Based on the result from the ROC analysis and DCA analysis, the A-G score appeared to be superior to either AFP or GGT alone in the prediction of prognosis of solitary HCC patients. In the subgroup analysis, the A-G score could accurately predict the prognosis of solitary HCC patients without MVI or with liver cirrhosis.

Conclusions: Preoperative A-G score could effectively and simply predict prognosis of solitary HCC patients after hepatectomy, especially for those with non-MVI solitary HCC or those with liver cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in adult thalassemia patients: an expert opinion based on current evidence

Beta-thalassemia represents a heterogeneous group of haemoglobin inherited disorders, among the most common genetic diseases in the world, frequent in the Mediterranean basin. As beta-thalassemia patients' survival has increased over time, previously unknown complications are observed with increasing frequency. Among them, an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been registered. Our aim is to reduce inequalities in diagnosis and treatment and to offer patients univocal recommendations in any institution.The members of the panel - gastroenterologists, radiologists, surgeons and oncologists -were selected on the basis of their publication records and expertise. Thirteen clinical questions, derived from clinical needs, and an integration of all the committee members' suggestions, were formulated. Modified Delphi approach involving a detailed literature review and the collective judgement of experts, was applied to this work.Thirteen statements were derived from expert opinions' based on the current literature, on recently developed reviews and on technological advancements. Each statement is discussed in a short paragraph reporting the current key evidence. As this is an emerging issue, the number of papers on HCC in beta-thalassemia patients is limited and based on anecdotal cases rather than on randomized controlled studies. Therefore, the panel has discussed, step by step, the possible differences between beta-thalassemia and non beta-thalassemia patients. Despite the paucity of the literature, practical and concise statements were generated.This paper offers a practical guide organized by statements describing how to manage HCC in patients with beta-thalassemia.

A novel molecular-clinicopathologic nomogram to improve prognosis prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence suggests that long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) plays a crucial part in the development and progress of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The objective was to develop novel molecular-clinicopathological prediction methods for overall survival (OS) and recurrence of HCC.

RESULTS

An 8-lncRNA-based classifier for OS and a 14-lncRNA-based classifier for recurrence were developed by LASSO COX regression analysis, both of which had high accuracy. The tdROC of OS-nomogram and recurrence-nomogram indicates the satisfactory accuracy and predictive power. The classifiers and nomograms for predicting OS and recurrence of HCC were validated in the Test and GEO cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

These two lncRNA-based classifiers could be independent prognostic factors for OS and recurrence. The molecule-clinicopathological nomograms based on the classifiers could increase the prognostic value.

METHODS

HCC lncRNA expression profiles from the cancer genome atlas (TCGA) were randomly divided into 1:1 training and test cohorts. Based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method (LASSO) COX regression model, lncRNA-based classifiers were established to predict OS and recurrence, respectively. OS-nomogram and recurrence-nomogram were developed by combining lncRNA-based classifiers and clinicopathological characterization to predict OS and recurrence, respectively. The prognostic value was accessed by the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tdROC) and the concordance index (C-index).

Prognostic Nomogram for Hepatitis B Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization After Radical Resection

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to establish a reliable and effective nomogram for predicting prognosis of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A derivation cohort of 370 HCC patients treated with postoperative TACE in the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital from January 2009 to December 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed by Cox regression and independent prognostic factors for overall survival were determined to construct the nomogram. Concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and decision curve analysis were performed to evaluate the capability of the nomogram and the established nomogram was compared with TNM stage and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage to identify the superior model. The results were validated in a validation cohort of 123 HCC patients in the same center.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis indicated that γ-glutamyl transferase, α-fetoprotein, tumor number, tumor size, satellite lesions, microvascular invasion, and HBV-DNA were independent prognostic factors for overall survival in the derivation cohort, and all these factors were selected into the nomogram. The C-index was 0.755 for survival prediction of the nomogram, which was significantly higher than the TNM stage (0.636, P<0.001) and BCLC stage (0.594, P<0.001). A fair uniformity and a superior net benefit with wide range threshold probabilities were showed in the calibration curves and decision curve analysis. In the validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram (0.785) also had a higher predictive accuracy than TNM stage (0.744, P=0.019) and BCLC stage (0.616, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram with accurate and reasonable performance was proposed for predicting survival of HBV-related HCC with postoperative adjuvant TACE.

Post-treatment alpha-fetoprotein response predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Post-treatment alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been reported to be associated with prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, but the results were not consistent. This meta-analysis aimed to explore the relationship between AFP response and clinical outcomes of HCC.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Medline and Cochrane library were searched for relevant articles published before March 20, 2019. The data were analyzed using RevMan5.3 software.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine articles with 4726 HCC patients were finally included for analysis. The pooled results showed that post-treatment AFP response was significantly associated with overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35-0.47, P <.001), progression free survival (PFS) (HR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.39-0.54, P <.001) and recurrence free survival (RFS) (HR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.29-0.56, P <.001) of HCC patients.

CONCLUSION

post-treatment AFP response might be a useful prognostic marker for HCC patients.

Preoperative MRI features and clinical laboratory indicators for predicting the early therapeutic response of hepatocellular carcinoma to transcatheter arterial chemoembolization combined with High-intensity focused ultrasound treatment

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the value of preoperative MRI features and laboratory indicators in predicting the early response of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatment and to establish a preoperative prediction model.

METHODS

A total of 188 patients with 223 tumors who underwent TACE/HIFU treatment from January 2011 to June 2017 were included. Tumors were divided into three groups (< 2 cm, 2 - 5 cm,> 5 cm) and classified as non-complete response (NCR) and complete response (CR) cohorts according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Cancer of the Liver (RECICL) 2015 revised version. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine independent predictors, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the diagnostic power of each predictor. The prediction model was derived on the β coefficient of the multivariate regression analysis of the predictors.

RESULTS

Irregular margins in the 2 - 5 cm group were closely related to early NCR. Irregular margins, arterial peritumoral enhancement and abnormal alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were independent predictors of early NCR in the > 5 cm group. The prediction model of this group suggests that irregular margins combined with arterial peritumoral enhancement and abnormal AFP combined with irregular margins and arterial peritumoral enhancement predict an increased risk of early NCR.

CONCLUSION

Irregular margins of 2 - 5 cm tumors and irregular margins, arterial peritumoral enhancement, and abnormal AFP of tumors > 5 cm can be applied to predict the early response of HCC to TACE/HIFU treatment.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

TACE combined with HIFU treatment may be able to significantly improve survival in patients with advanced HCC. Conventional MRI features and laboratory indicators are readily available without complex post-processing. It is feasible to predict the response of HCC after TACE/HIFU treatment based on preoperative conventional MRI features and laboratory indicators, the combination of multiple features predicts high-risk of non-complete response.

A Nomogram Predicting Extrahepatic Metastases for Patients with Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization after Hepatectomy

Background: Prognosis remains poor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with extrahepatic metastases (EHMs). This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict EHMs in HCC patients who underwent adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) following hepatectomy.

Methods: Data of 578 HCC patients who underwent TACE after hepatectomy at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital was retrospectively reviewed. Cox regression analyses was used to select variables to construct the nomogram. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the model were performed using concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and the area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results: Postoperative EHMs were detected in 89 and 31 patients in the training cohort (n = 453) and validation cohort (n = 125), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size (HR, 1.099; 95% CI, 1.049-1.152), coarse beam type of tumor histopathological structure (HR, 2.382; 95% CI, 1.030-5.512), presence of satellite nodules (HR, 1.936; 95% CI, 1.156-3.244) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR, 1.399; 95% CI, 1.098-1.783) were independent risk factors for EHMs (all p < 0.05). The nomogram incorporated these factors achieved good agreement between prediction and actual observation with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.78) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.79) in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. In addition, patients who had a nomogram score > 17 were considered to have higher risk for EHMs compared with those scored ≤ 12. Furthermore, the time-dependent area under the ROC curve indicated comparative stability and adequate discriminative ability of the model.

Conclusions: This novel nomogram can identify those with high risk of EHMs after adjuvant TACE following hepatectomy. The validation cohort showed a good performance, suggesting it could benefit surgeons on decision-making.

Multidisciplinary management of recurrent and metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma after resection: an international expert consensus

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth-most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer-related death in the world. However, 40-70% patients eventually suffer from postoperative recurrence within 5 years. HCC recurrence after surgery severely affects prognosis of the patients. Nevertheless, there is an opportunity to improve patients' prognosis if doctors and researchers can recognize the importance of a standardized perioperative management and study it in clinical and pre-clinical settings. Hence, based on our own experience and published studies from other researchers, we develop this consensus regarding multidisciplinary management of locally recurrent and metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma after resection. This consensus consists of the entire course of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (RHCC) management, including prediction of recurrence, prevention, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance of RHCC. Consensus recommendations are presented with grades of evidences (Ia, Ib, IIa, IIb, III and IV), and strength of recommendations (A, B, C, D and E). We also develop a decision-making path for RHCC treatment, which can intuitively demonstrate the management for RHCC. It is hoped that we may make some effort to standardize the management of RHCC and ultimately understand how to improve outcomes.

A Panel of Genes Identified as Targets for 8q24.13-24.3 Gain Contributing to Unfavorable Overall Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Copy number aberrations (CNAs) in chromosome arm 8q have been associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes of several cancers and progressive tumor characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was to identify correlation of CNAs in 8q with clinical outcomes of HCC patients, and further screen for differentially expressed genes in outcome-related CNAs. Array comparative genomic hybridization and expression arrays were performed to detect CNAs and expression levels, respectively. The correlations between CNAs in 8q and outcomes were analyzed in 66 patients, with a median follow-up time of 45.0 months (range, 2.6-108.6 months). One hundred and nine cases were further evaluated to identify differentially expressed genes in the potential outcome-related CNAs. Copy number gain in 8q was observed in 22 (33.3%) of the 66 HCC cases. The most recurrent gains (with frequencies >20%) were 8q13.3-21.3,8q21.3-23.3,8q23.3-24.13,8q24.13-24.3, and 8q24.3. Survival analysis showed that 8q24.13-24.3 gain was significantly associated with reduced overall survival (jP=0.010). Multivariate Cox analysis identified 8q24.13-24.3 gain as an independent prognostic factor for poor overall survival (HR=2.47; 95% CI=1.16-5.26; Р=0.019). Apanel of 17 genes within the 8q24.13-24.3 region, including ATAD2,SQLE,PVT1,ASAP1, and NDRG1 were significantly upregulated in HCCs with 8q24.13-24.3 gain compared to those without. These results suggest that copy number gain at 8q24.13-24.3 is an unfavorable prognostic marker for HCC patients, and the potential oncogenes ATAD2,SQLE, PVT1, ASAP1,and NDRG1 within the regional gain, may contribute coordinately to the 8q24.13-24.3 gain-related poor prognosis.

Prognostic role of alpha-fetoprotein response after hepatocellular carcinoma resection

AIM

To investigate whether the change in pre-/post-operation serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels is a predictive factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) outcomes.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 334 HCC patients who underwent hepatic resection at our hospital between January 2006 and December 2016. The patients were classified into three groups according to their change in serum AFP levels: (1) the normal group, pre-AFP ≤ 20 ng/mL and post-AFP ≤ 20 ng/mL; (2) the response group, pre-AFP > 20 ng/mL and post-AFP decrease of ≥ 50% of pre-AFP; and (3) the non-response group, pre-AFP level > 20 ng/mL and post-AFP decrease of < 50% or higher than pre-AFP level, or any pre-AFP level < 20 ng/mL but post-AFP >20 ng/mL.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that multiple tumors [hazard ratio (HR): 1.646, 95%CI: 1.15-2.35, P < 0.05], microvascular invasion (mVI) (HR: 1.573, 95%CI: 1.05-2.35, P < 0.05), and the non-response group (HR: 2.425, 95% CI: 1.42-4.13, P < 0.05) were significant independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival. Similarly, multiple tumors (HR: 1.99, 95%CI: 1.12-3.52, P < 0.05), mVI (HR: 3.24, 95%CI: 1.77-5.90, P < 0.05), and the non-response group (HR: 3.62, 95%CI: 1.59-8.21, P < 0.05) were also significant independent risk factors for overall survival. The non-response group had significantly lower overall survival rates and recurrence-free survival rates than both the normal group and the response group (P < 0.05). Thus, patients with no response regarding post-surgery AFP levels were associated with poor outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Serum AFP responses are significant prognostic factors for the surgical outcomes of HCC patients, suggesting post-resection AFP levels can direct the management of HCC patients.

Prognostic factors in patients with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma following hepatic resection

Background

To analyze prognostic factors following hepatic resection in patients with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 217 patients with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent hepatic resection at our hospital between January 2006 and December 2015. Disease-free survival and overall survival rates were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method and the log-rank test. The association between recurrence and survival and various clinicopathological factors, including serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, platelet count, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, antiplatelet therapy, antiviral therapy, hepatitis C virus infection, and tumor-related characteristics, were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 91, 84, and 79%, respectively, and the recurrence-free survival rates were 72, 51, and 44%, respectively. High post-operative AFP level (hazard ratio [HR] 1.112, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–1.21, P = 0.007), multiple tumors (HR 1.991, 95% CI: 1.11–3.56, P = 0.021), and no antiviral treatment (HR 1.823, 95% CI: 1.07–3.09, P = 0.026) were independent risk factors for recurrence. High post-operative AFP level (HR 1.222, 95% CI: 1.09–1.36, P < 0.001), multiple tumors (HR 2.715, 95% CI: 1.05–7.02, P = 0.039), and recurrence (HR 12.824, 95% CI: 1.68–97.86, P = 0.014) were independent risk factors for mortality. No other factors analyzed were associated with outcomes in this patient cohort.

Conclusions

High post-operative serum alpha-fetoprotein level and multiple tumors, but not inflammatory factors, were risk factors for poor prognosis in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients after resection.

The hepatectomy efficacy of huge hepatocellular carcinoma and its risk factors: A meta analysis

BACKGROUND

There has always been a controversy on the hepatectomy for huge hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, we aim to explore the hepatectomy efficacy of huge HCC and its risk factors.

METHODS

A systematic research was performed using PubMed, MedLine, Web of Knowledge, and Cochrane Library from their establishment to August 2017. The major endpoints were overall survival (OS) rate and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate, and the secondary ones were the morbidity of complications and mortality of hepatectomy.

RESULTS

About 13 studies with a total of 7609 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The hepatectomy efficacy of huge HCC was inferior to non-huge HCC both in OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.90-2.50, P < .00001; I = 66%, P = .003) and RFS (HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.76-2.19, P < .00001; I = 74%, P = .0001). However, the risk difference[RD] of the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS tended to be acceptable (RD = -0.05, 95% CI = -0.11-0.00, P = .05; RD = -0.13, 95% CI = -0.21--0.05, P = .002; RD = -0.10, 95% CI = -0.19--0.01, P = .03; respectively). Moreover, there were also no significant differences between huge HCC and non-huge HCC in the morbidity of complication and mortality of hepatectomy (RD = 0.07, 95% CI = -0.09-0.23, P = .38; RD = -0.01, 95% CI = -0.00--0.03, P = .06; respectively). Related risk factors were measured to explore the differences, and the results showed that the level of alpha fetal protein (AFP) and the margin-positive rate were higher (standard mean difference [SMD] = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.26-0.88, P = .0003; odd radio[OR] = 32.52, 95% CI = 1.02-6.22, P = .04; respectively), the characteristic of huge HCC tended to be worse such as lower clinical or pathological stage, incomplete capsule and incorporate satellite metastases (OR = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.68-5.04, P = .001; OR = 3.99, 95% CI = 3.40-4.67, P < .00001; OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.66-3.83, P < .0001; respectively), and the rate of micorvascular invasion (MVI) including portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) were higher (OR = 3.36, 95% CI = 1.61-7.02, P = .001; OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 2.29-3.31, P < .00001; respectively) in the huge HCC.

CONCLUSION

The hepatectomy efficacy of huge HCC was inferior to non-huge HCC, but its survival benefits and feasibility were confirmed in this meta-analysis. In addition, higher level of AFP, positive margin, lower clinical or pathological stage, incomplete capsule, incorporate satellite metastasis and MVI were significantly correlated with poor OS.

Changes of alpha-fetoprotein levels could predict recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma survival after trans-arterial chemoembolization

Background

There is paucity of information concerning whether AFP change is a predictor of prognosis for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (RHCC) patients after trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE).

Methods

A total of 177 RHCC patients who received TACE as first-line therapy were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were classified into three groups according to their pre-TACE and post-TACE AFP levels (group A: AFP decreased, group B: AFP consistent normal, and group C: AFP increased). The recurrence to death survival (RTDS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and compared by the log-rank test. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for OS and RTDS.

Results

There was no significant difference among the three groups concerning the baseline characteristics. The median overall survival (OS) was 74.5 months in group A (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5, 85.6), 64.0 months in group B (95% CI: 52.3, 75.7) and 29.0 months in group C (95% CI: 24.1, 33.9; P<0.001). The median recurrence to death survival (RTDS) was 66.5 months (95% CI: 53.4, 79.6) in group A, 50.4 months (95% CI: 39.5, 61.4) in group B and 17.7 months (95% CI: 13.4, 22.1; P<0.001) in group C. Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor size at resection stage, tumor number at recurrent stage, cycles of TACE, mRECIST response and AFP change after TACE were significant independent risk factors for RTDS and OS.

Conclusions

AFP change could predict the prognoses of patients with RHCC who received trans-arterial chemoembolization, which may help clinicians make subsequent treatment decision.

Personalized therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma: Molecular markers of prognosis and therapeutic response

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a growing worldwide health crisis with rising incidence, limited effective therapies and persistently poor prognosis. Five-year survival remains less than 20% despite decades of research. One byproduct of research efforts is the identification of numerous biomarkers of disease. From prognosis to therapeutic response, biomarker identification parallels a deeper molecular understanding of the disease that to date has generated limited gain in clinical outcomes. As one example, the classical prognostic biomarkers of tumor Ki-67 protein expression and TP53 gene mutation have been repeatedly demonstrated to correlate with poor prognosis. There have been several studies throughout the past two decades identifying other gene-based biomarkers of prognosis. Critically, translation into the clinic has been slow and focus has shifted to a search for markers of therapeutic response in hopes of generating novel approaches to the disease. With this focus, many of the correlates are based on retrospective review of sorafenib effectiveness. Sorafenib, an oral targeted multi-kinase inhibitor, is currently the standard of care systemic agent for non-resectable disease. The Wnt-pathway, particularly when activated, is the most commonly cited molecular marker of sorafenib responsiveness. Additional work has identified a profile of genes involved in drug absorption, processing, and elimination that also appears to increase responsiveness. Overall, despite promising clinical data the use of biomarkers in the clinic for HCC is limited. In this piece, progress and opportunities for future work "beyond the genome" are highlighted, including metabolomic, epigenetic, and non-coding RNA studies. Additionally, barriers to the implementation of personalized therapeutic selection in HCC are reviewed.