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Huber M, Bello C, Schober P, Filipovic MG, Luedi MM. Decision Curve Analysis of In-Hospital Mortality Prediction Models: The Relative Value of Pre- and Intraoperative Data For Decision-Making. Anesth Analg 2024; 139:617-28. [PMID: 38315623 DOI: 10.1213/ane.0000000000006874] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinical prediction modeling plays a pivotal part in modern clinical care, particularly in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality. Recent modeling efforts have focused on leveraging intraoperative data sources to improve model performance. However, the individual and collective benefit of pre- and intraoperative data for clinical decision-making remains unknown. We hypothesized that pre- and intraoperative predictors contribute equally to the net benefit in a decision curve analysis (DCA) of in-hospital mortality prediction models that include pre- and intraoperative predictors. METHODS Data from the VitalDB database featuring a subcohort of 6043 patients were used. A total of 141 predictors for in-hospital mortality were grouped into preoperative (demographics, intervention characteristics, and laboratory measurements) and intraoperative (laboratory and monitor data, drugs, and fluids) data. Prediction models using either preoperative, intraoperative, or all data were developed with multiple methods (logistic regression, neural network, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and a stacked learner). Predictive performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Clinical utility was examined with a DCA in the predefined risk preference range (denoted by so-called treatment threshold probabilities) between 0% and 20%. RESULTS AUROC performance of the prediction models ranged from 0.53 to 0.78. AUPRC values ranged from 0.02 to 0.25 (compared to the incidence of 0.09 in our dataset) and high AUPRC values resulted from prediction models based on preoperative laboratory values. A DCA of pre- and intraoperative prediction models highlighted that preoperative data provide the largest overall benefit for decision-making, whereas intraoperative values provide only limited benefit for decision-making compared to preoperative data. While preoperative demographics, comorbidities, and surgery-related data provide the largest benefit for low treatment thresholds up to 5% to 10%, preoperative laboratory measurements become the dominant source for decision support for higher thresholds. CONCLUSIONS When it comes to predicting in-hospital mortality and subsequent decision-making, preoperative demographics, comorbidities, and surgery-related data provide the largest benefit for clinicians with risk-averse preferences, whereas preoperative laboratory values provide the largest benefit for decision-makers with more moderate risk preferences. Our decision-analytic investigation of different predictor categories moves beyond the question of whether certain predictors provide a benefit in traditional performance metrics (eg, AUROC). It offers a nuanced perspective on for whom these predictors might be beneficial in clinical decision-making. Follow-up studies requiring larger datasets and dedicated deep-learning models to handle continuous intraoperative data are essential to examine the robustness of our results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Markus Huber
- From the Department of Anaesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Corina Bello
- From the Department of Anaesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Patrick Schober
- Department of Anesthesiology, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Mark G Filipovic
- From the Department of Anaesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Markus M Luedi
- From the Department of Anaesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Li B, Nassereldine R, Zamzam A, Syed MH, Mamdani M, Al-Omran M, Abdin R, Qadura M. Development and evaluation of a prediction model for peripheral artery disease-related major adverse limb events using novel biomarker data. J Vasc Surg 2024; 80:490-497.e1. [PMID: 38599293 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2024.03.450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2024] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 03/31/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Prognostic tools for individuals with peripheral artery disease (PAD) remain limited. We developed prediction models for 3-year PAD-related major adverse limb events (MALE) using demographic, clinical, and biomarker data previously validated by our group. METHODS We performed a prognostic study using a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with PAD (n = 569). Demographic/clinical data were recorded including sex, age, comorbidities, previous procedures, and medications. Plasma concentrations of three biomarkers (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], fatty acid binding protein 3 [FABP3], and FABP4) were measured at baseline. The cohort was followed for 3 years. MALE was the primary outcome (composite of open/endovascular vascular intervention or major amputation). We trained three machine learning models with 10-fold cross-validation using demographic, clinical, and biomarker data (random forest, decision trees, and Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost]) to predict 3-year MALE in patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was the primary model evaluation metric. RESULTS Three-year MALE was observed in 162 patients (29%). XGBoost was the top-performing predictive model for 3-year MALE, achieving the following performance metrics: AUROC = 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.94); sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 84%; positive predictive value, 83%; and negative predictive value, 91% on test set data. On an independent validation cohort of patients with PAD, XGBoost attained an AUROC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.90). The 10 most important predictors of 3-year MALE consisted of: (1) FABP3; (2) FABP4; (3) age; (4) NT-proBNP; (5) active smoking; (6) diabetes; (7) hypertension; (8) dyslipidemia; (9) coronary artery disease; and (10) sex. CONCLUSIONS We built robust machine learning algorithms that accurately predict 3-year MALE in patients with PAD using demographic, clinical, and novel biomarker data. Our algorithms can support risk stratification of patients with PAD for additional vascular evaluation and early aggressive medical management, thereby improving outcomes. Further validation of our models for clinical implementation is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Rakan Nassereldine
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Abdelrahman Zamzam
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Muzammil H Syed
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Rawand Abdin
- Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mohammad Qadura
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
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Bektaş M, Pereira JK, Daams F, van der Peet DL. ChatGPT in surgery: a revolutionary innovation? Surg Today 2024; 54:964-971. [PMID: 38421439 PMCID: PMC11266448 DOI: 10.1007/s00595-024-02800-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 12/13/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
ChatGPT has brought about a new era of digital health, as this model has become prominent and been rapidly developing since its release. ChatGPT may be able to facilitate improvements in surgery as well; however, the influence of ChatGPT on surgery is largely unknown at present. Therefore, the present study reports on the current applications of ChatGPT in the field of surgery, evaluating its workflow, practical implementations, limitations, and future perspectives. A literature search was performed using the PubMed and Embase databases. The initial search was performed from its inception until July 2023. This study revealed that ChatGPT has promising capabilities in areas of surgical research, education, training, and practice. In daily practice, surgeons and surgical residents can be aided in performing logistics and administrative tasks, and patients can be more efficiently informed about the details of their condition. However, priority should be given to establishing proper policies and protocols to ensure the safe and reliable use of this model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mustafa Bektaş
- Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Surgery, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Jaime Ken Pereira
- Department of Computer Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Freek Daams
- Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Surgery, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Donald L van der Peet
- Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Surgery, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Li B, Eisenberg N, Beaton D, Lee DS, Al-Omran L, Wijeysundera DN, Hussain MA, Rotstein OD, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Roche-Nagle G, Al-Omran M. Predicting inferior vena cava filter complications using machine learning. J Vasc Surg Venous Lymphat Disord 2024:101943. [PMID: 39084408 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvsv.2024.101943] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2024] [Revised: 06/03/2024] [Accepted: 06/26/2024] [Indexed: 08/02/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Inferior vena cava (IVC) filter placement is associated with important long-term complications. Predictive models for filter-related complications may help guide clinical decision-making but remain limited. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict 1-year IVC filter complications using preoperative data. METHODS The Vascular Quality Initiative database was used to identify patients who underwent IVC filter placement between 2013 and 2024. We identified 77 preoperative demographic and clinical features from the index hospitalization when the filter was placed. The primary outcome was 1-year filter-related complications (composite of filter thrombosis, migration, angulation, fracture, and embolization or fragmentation, vein perforation, new caval or iliac vein thrombosis, new pulmonary embolism, access site thrombosis, or failed retrieval). The data were divided into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Six ML models were trained using preoperative features with 10-fold cross-validation (Extreme Gradient Boosting, random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was assessed using calibration plot and Brier score. Performance was evaluated across subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, rurality, median Area Deprivation Index, planned duration of filter, landing site of filter, and presence of prior IVC filter placement. RESULTS Overall, 14,476 patients underwent IVC filter placement and 584 (4.0%) experienced 1-year filter-related complications. Patients with a primary outcome were younger (59.3 ± 16.7 years vs 63.8 ± 16.0 years; P < .001) and more likely to have thrombotic risk factors including thrombophilia, prior venous thromboembolism (VTE), and family history of VTE. The best prediction model was Extreme Gradient Boosting, achieving an AUROC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.94). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.65). Calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted/observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.07. The top 10 predictors of 1-year filter-related complications were (1) thrombophilia, (2) prior VTE, (3) antiphospholipid antibodies, (4) factor V Leiden mutation, (5) family history of VTE, (6) planned duration of IVC filter (temporary), (7) unable to maintain therapeutic anticoagulation, (8) malignancy, (9) recent or active bleeding, and (10) age. Model performance remained robust across all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS We developed ML models that can accurately predict 1-year IVC filter complications, performing better than logistic regression. These algorithms have potential for important usefulness in guiding patient selection for filter placement, counselling, perioperative management, and follow-up to mitigate filter-related complications and improve outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Naomi Eisenberg
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Leen Al-Omran
- School of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Mohamad A Hussain
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery and the Center for Surgery and Public Health, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Ori D Rotstein
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Division of General Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Graham Roche-Nagle
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Division of Vascular and Interventional Radiology, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
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Abdelwahab SI, Taha MME, Alfaifi HA, Farasani A, Hassan W. Bibliometric Analysis of Machine Learning Applications in Ischemia Research. Curr Probl Cardiol 2024; 49:102754. [PMID: 39079619 DOI: 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2024.102754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2024] [Accepted: 07/23/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis to elucidate the landscape of machine learning applications in ischemia research. METHODS The analysis can be divided in three sections: part 1 scrutinizes articles and reviews with "ischemia" in their titles, while part 2 further narrows the focus to publications containing both "ischemia" and "machine learning" in their titles. Additionally, part 3 delves into the examination of the top 50 most cited papers, exploring their thematic focus and co-word dynamics. RESULTS The findings reveal a significant increase in publications over the years, with notable trends identified through detailed analysis. The growth in publication counts over time, the leading contributors, institutions, geographical distribution of research output and journals are numerically presented for part 1 and part 2. For the top 50 most cited papers the dynamics of co-words, which offer a nuanced understanding of thematic trends and emerging concepts, are presented. Based on the number of citations the top 10 authors were selected, and later for each, total number of publications, h-index, g-index and m-index are provided. Additionally, figures depicting the co-authorship network among authors, departments, and countries involved in the top 50 cited papers may enrich our comprehension of collaborative networks in ischemia research. CONCLUSION This comprehensive bibliometric analysis provides valuable insights into the evolving landscape of machine learning applications in ischemia research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Hassan Ahmad Alfaifi
- Pharmaceutical Care Administration (Jeddah Second Health Cluster), Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdullah Farasani
- Department of Medical Laboratory Technology, Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, Jazan University
| | - Waseem Hassan
- Institute of Chemical Sciences, University of Peshawar, Peshawar 25120, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
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Nedbal C, Adithya S, Gite S, Naik N, Griffin S, Somani BK. A Machine Learning (ML) Predictive Model for Ureteroscopy lasertripsy (URSL) Outcomes in a Paediatric Population - Results from a large Endourology Tertiary Centre. J Endourol 2024. [PMID: 39041918 DOI: 10.1089/end.2024.0120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/24/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms for the automated prediction of post operative ureteroscopy outcomes for paediatric kidney stones based on pre-operative characteristics. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data from paediatric patients who underwent ureteroscopy for stone treatment by a single experienced surgeon, between 2010 and 2023 in Southampton General Hospital, were retrospectively collected. 15 ML classification algorithms were used to investigate correlations between preoperative characteristics and postoperative outcomes: primary stone free status (SFS, defined as stone fragments <2mm at the end of the procedure confirmed endoscopically and no evidence of stone fragments >2mm at XR KUB or US KUB at 3 months follow up) and complications. For the task of complication and stone status, ensemble model was made out of bagging classifier, extra trees classifier and LDA. Also, a multi-task neural network was constructed for the simultaneous prediction of all post-operative characteristics. Finally, Explainable AI techniques were used to explain the prediction made by the best models. RESULTS The ensemble model produced the highest accuracy (90%) in predicting SFS, finding correlation with overall stone size (-0.205), presence of multiple stones (-0.127) and preoperative stenting (-0.102). Complications were predicted by SMOTE oversampled dataset (93.3% accuracy) with relation to preoperative positive urine culture (-0.060) and SFS (0.003). Training the ML for the multi task model, accuracies of 83.3% and 80% were respectively reached. CONCLUSION ML has a great potential of assisting healthcare research, with possibilities to investigate dataset at a higher level. With the aid of this intelligent tool, urologists can implement their practice and develop new strategies for outcome prediction and patient counselling and informed shared decision making. Our model reached an excellent accuracy in predicting SFS and complications in the paediatric population, leading the way to the validation of patient-specific predictive tools.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlotta Nedbal
- University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Urology, 117 High street, 23Castleplace, Southampton, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, SO142EA;
| | - Sairam Adithya
- Symbiosis institute of technology, Pune, India, CSE Department , Pune, India;
| | - Shilpa Gite
- Symbiosis institute of technology, Pune, India, CSE Department , Pune, India;
| | - Nithesh Naik
- Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mechanical and Manufacturing, Manipal Institute of Technology, Manipal, Karnataka, India, 576104;
| | - Stephen Griffin
- University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Paediatric Urology, Southampton, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland;
| | - Bhaskar K Somani
- University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Urology, Southampton, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland;
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Li B, Shaikh F, Zamzam A, Raphael R, Syed MH, Younes HK, Abdin R, Qadura M. Prediction of Peripheral Artery Disease Prognosis Using Clinical and Inflammatory Biomarker Data. J Inflamm Res 2024; 17:4865-4879. [PMID: 39070129 PMCID: PMC11278072 DOI: 10.2147/jir.s471150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2024] [Accepted: 07/09/2024] [Indexed: 07/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Purpose Inflammatory biomarkers associated with peripheral artery disease (PAD) have been examined separately; however, an algorithm that includes a panel of inflammatory proteins to inform prognosis of PAD could improve predictive accuracy. We developed predictive models for 2-year PAD-related major adverse limb events (MALE) using clinical/inflammatory biomarker data. Methods We conducted a prognostic study using 2 phases (discovery/validation models). The discovery cohort included 100 PAD patients that were propensity-score matched to 100 non-PAD patients. The validation cohort included 365 patients with PAD and 144 patients without PAD (non-matched). Plasma concentrations of 29 inflammatory proteins were determined at recruitment and the cohorts were followed for 2 years. The outcome of interest was 2-year MALE (composite of major amputation, vascular intervention, or acute limb ischemia). A random forest model was trained with 10-fold cross-validation to predict 2-year MALE using the following input features: 1) clinical characteristics, 2) inflammatory biomarkers that were expressed differentially in PAD vs non-PAD patients, and 3) clinical characteristics and inflammatory biomarkers. Results The model discovery cohort was well-matched on age, sex, and comorbidities. Of the 29 proteins tested, 5 were elevated in PAD vs non-PAD patients (MMP-7, MMP-10, IL-6, CCL2/MCP-1, and TFPI). For prognosis of 2-year MALE on the validation cohort, our model achieved AUROC 0.63 using clinical features alone and adding inflammatory biomarker levels improved performance to AUROC 0.84. Conclusion Using clinical characteristics and inflammatory biomarker data, we developed an accurate predictive model for PAD prognosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Farah Shaikh
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Abdelrahman Zamzam
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ravel Raphael
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Muzammil H Syed
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Houssam K Younes
- Heart, Vascular, & Thoracic Institute, Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Rawand Abdin
- Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mohammad Qadura
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Görges M, Sujan J, West NC, Sreepada RS, Wood MD, Payne BA, Shetty S, Gelinas JP, Sutherland AM. Postsurgical Pain Risk Stratification to Enhance Pain Management Workflow in Adult Patients: Design, Implementation, and Pilot Evaluation. JMIR Perioper Med 2024; 7:e54926. [PMID: 38954808 PMCID: PMC11252618 DOI: 10.2196/54926] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2023] [Revised: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Exposure to opioids after surgery is the initial contact for some people who develop chronic opioid use disorder. Hence, effective postoperative pain management, with less reliance on opioids, is critical. The Perioperative Opioid Quality Improvement (POQI) program developed (1) a digital health platform leveraging patient-survey-reported risk factors and (2) a postsurgical pain risk stratification algorithm to personalize perioperative care by integrating several commercially available digital health solutions into a combined platform. Development was reduced in scope by the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE This pilot study aims to assess the screening performance of the risk algorithm, quantify the use of the POQI platform, and evaluate clinicians' and patients' perceptions of its utility and benefit. METHODS A POQI platform prototype was implemented in a quality improvement initiative at a Canadian tertiary care center and evaluated from January to September 2022. After surgical booking, a preliminary risk stratification algorithm was applied to health history questionnaire responses. The estimated risk guided the patient assignment to a care pathway based on low or high risk for persistent pain and opioid use. Demographic, procedural, and medication administration data were extracted retrospectively from the electronic medical record. Postoperative inpatient opioid use of >90 morphine milligram equivalents per day was the outcome used to assess algorithm performance. Data were summarized and compared between the low- and high-risk groups. POQI use was assessed by completed surveys on postoperative days 7, 14, 30, 60, 90, and 120. Semistructured patient and clinician interviews provided qualitative feedback on the platform. RESULTS Overall, 276 eligible patients were admitted for colorectal procedures. The risk algorithm stratified 203 (73.6%) as the low-risk group and 73 (26.4%) as the high-risk group. Among the 214 (77.5%) patients with available data, high-risk patients were younger than low-risk patients (age: median 53, IQR 40-65 years, vs median 59, IQR 49-69 years, median difference five years, 95% CI 1-9; P=.02) and were more often female patients (45/73, 62% vs 80/203, 39.4%; odds ratio 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.5; P=.002). The risk stratification was reasonably specific (true negative rate=144/200, 72%) but not sensitive (true positive rate=10/31, 32%). Only 39.7% (85/214) patients completed any postoperative quality of recovery questionnaires (only 14, 6.5% patients beyond 60 days after surgery), and 22.9% (49/214) completed a postdischarge medication survey. Interviewed participants welcomed the initiative but noted usability issues and poor platform education. CONCLUSIONS An initial POQI platform prototype was deployed operationally; the risk algorithm had reasonable specificity but poor sensitivity. There was a significant loss to follow-up in postdischarge survey completion. Clinicians and patients appreciated the potential impact of preemptively addressing opioid exposure but expressed shortcomings in the platform's design and implementation. Iterative platform redesign with additional features and reevaluation are required before broader implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthias Görges
- Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology & Therapeutics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Research Institute, BC Children's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Jonath Sujan
- Research Institute, BC Children's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Nicholas C West
- Research Institute, BC Children's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Rama Syamala Sreepada
- Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology & Therapeutics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Research Institute, BC Children's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Michael D Wood
- Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology & Therapeutics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Research Institute, BC Children's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Beth A Payne
- Research Institute, BC Children's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Swati Shetty
- MD Undergraduate Program, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Jean P Gelinas
- Department of Anesthesiology & Pain Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
- Department of Anesthesiology, Surrey Memorial Hospital, Surrey, BC, Canada
| | - Ainsley M Sutherland
- Department of Anesthesiology, Pharmacology & Therapeutics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Department of Anesthesiology, St. Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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9
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Li B, Shaikh F, Zamzam A, Syed MH, Abdin R, Qadura M. The Identification and Evaluation of Interleukin-7 as a Myokine Biomarker for Peripheral Artery Disease Prognosis. J Clin Med 2024; 13:3583. [PMID: 38930112 PMCID: PMC11205196 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13123583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2024] [Revised: 06/13/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Myokines have been demonstrated to be associated with cardiovascular diseases; however, they have not been studied as biomarkers for peripheral artery disease (PAD). We identified interleukin-7 (IL-7) as a prognostic biomarker for PAD from a panel of myokines and developed predictive models for 2-year major adverse limb events (MALEs) using clinical features and plasma IL-7 levels. Methods: A prognostic study was conducted with a cohort of 476 patients (312 with PAD and 164 without PAD) that were recruited prospectively. Their plasma concentrations of five circulating myokines were measured at recruitment, and the patients were followed for two years. The outcome of interest was two-year MALEs (composite of major amputation, vascular intervention, or acute limb ischemia). Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to identify IL-7 as the only myokine that was associated with 2-year MALEs. The data were randomly divided into training (70%) and test sets (30%). A random forest model was trained using clinical characteristics (demographics, comorbidities, and medications) and plasma IL-7 levels with 10-fold cross-validation. The primary model evaluation metric was the F1 score. The prognostic model was used to classify patients into low vs. high risk of developing adverse limb events based on the Youden Index. Freedom from MALEs over 2 years was compared between the risk-stratified groups using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results: Two-year MALEs occurred in 28 (9%) of patients with PAD. IL-7 was the only myokine that was statistically significantly correlated with two-year MALE (HR 1.56 [95% CI 1.12-1.88], p = 0.007). For the prognosis of 2-year MALEs, our model achieved an F1 score of 0.829 using plasma IL-7 levels in combination with clinical features. Patients classified as high-risk by the predictive model were significantly more likely to develop MALEs over a 2-year period (HR 1.66 [95% CI 1.22-1.98], p = 0.006). Conclusions: From a panel of myokines, IL-7 was identified as a prognostic biomarker for PAD. Using a combination of clinical characteristics and plasma IL-7 levels, we propose an accurate predictive model for 2-year MALEs in patients with PAD. Our model may support PAD risk stratification, guiding clinical decisions on additional vascular evaluation, specialist referrals, and medical/surgical management, thereby improving outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada;
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Suite 7-076, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada; (F.S.); (A.Z.); (M.H.S.)
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada
| | - Farah Shaikh
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Suite 7-076, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada; (F.S.); (A.Z.); (M.H.S.)
| | - Abdelrahman Zamzam
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Suite 7-076, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada; (F.S.); (A.Z.); (M.H.S.)
| | - Muzammil H. Syed
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Suite 7-076, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada; (F.S.); (A.Z.); (M.H.S.)
| | - Rawand Abdin
- Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L8, Canada;
| | - Mohammad Qadura
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada;
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Suite 7-076, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada; (F.S.); (A.Z.); (M.H.S.)
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada
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10
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Nedbal C, Adithya S, Naik N, Gite S, Juliebø-Jones P, Somani BK. Can Machine Learning Correctly Predict Outcomes of Flexible Ureteroscopy with Laser Lithotripsy for Kidney Stone Disease? Results from a Large Endourology University Centre. EUR UROL SUPPL 2024; 64:30-37. [PMID: 38832122 PMCID: PMC11145425 DOI: 10.1016/j.euros.2024.05.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/12/2024] [Indexed: 06/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Background and objective The integration of machine learning (ML) in health care has garnered significant attention because of its unprecedented opportunities to enhance patient care and outcomes. In this study, we trained ML algorithms for automated prediction of outcomes of ureteroscopic laser lithotripsy (URSL) on the basis of preoperative characteristics. Methods Data were retrieved for patients treated with ureteroscopy for urolithiasis by a single experienced surgeon over a 7-yr period. Sixteen ML classification algorithms were trained to investigate correlation between preoperative characteristics and postoperative outcomes. The outcomes assessed were primary stone-free status (SFS, defined as the presence of only stone fragments <2 mm on endoscopic visualisation and at 3-mo imaging) and postoperative complications. An ensemble model was constructed from the best-performing algorithms for prediction of complications and for prediction of SFS. Simultaneous prediction of postoperative characteristics was then investigated using a multitask neural network, and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the best models. Key findings and limitations An ensemble ML model achieved accuracy of 93% and precision of 87% for prediction of SFS. Complications were mainly associated with a preoperative positive urine culture (1.44). Logistic regression revealed that SFS was impacted by the total stone burden (0.34), the presence of a preoperative stent (0.106), a positive preoperative urine culture (0.14), and stone location (0.09). Explainable AI results emphasised the key features and their contributions to the output. Conclusions and clinical implications Technological advances are helping urologists to overcome the classic limits of ureteroscopy, namely stone size and the risk of complications. ML represents an excellent aid for correct prediction of outcomes after training on pre-existing data sets. Our ML model achieved accuracy of >90% for prediction of SFS and complications, and represents a basis for the development of an accessible predictive model for endourologists and patients in the URSL setting. Patient summary We tested the ability of artificial intelligence to predict treatment outcomes for patients with kidney stones. We trained 16 different machine learning tools with data before surgery, such as patient age and the stone characteristics. Our final model was >90% accurate in predicting stone-free status after surgery and the occurrence of complications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlotta Nedbal
- University Hospital Southampton NHS Trust, Southampton, UK
- Urology Unit, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Delle Marche, Università Politecnica Delle Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | | | - Nithesh Naik
- Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Shilpa Gite
- Symbiosis Institute of Technology, Pune, India
| | - Patrick Juliebø-Jones
- Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Department of Urology, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway
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11
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Wang J, Tozzi F, Ashraf Ganjouei A, Romero-Hernandez F, Feng J, Calthorpe L, Castro M, Davis G, Withers J, Zhou C, Chaudhary Z, Adam M, Berrevoet F, Alseidi A, Rashidian N. Machine learning improves prediction of postoperative outcomes after gastrointestinal surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Gastrointest Surg 2024; 28:956-965. [PMID: 38556418 DOI: 10.1016/j.gassur.2024.03.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2024] [Revised: 03/04/2024] [Accepted: 03/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Machine learning (ML) approaches have become increasingly popular in predicting surgical outcomes. However, it is unknown whether they are superior to traditional statistical methods such as logistic regression (LR). This study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the performance of ML vs LR models in predicting postoperative outcomes for patients undergoing gastrointestinal (GI) surgery. METHODS A systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane, Web of Science, and Google Scholar was performed through December 2022. The primary outcome was the discriminatory performance of ML vs LR models as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A meta-analysis was then performed using a random effects model. RESULTS A total of 62 LR models and 143 ML models were included across 38 studies. On average, the best-performing ML models had a significantly higher AUC than the LR models (ΔAUC, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.04-0.09; P < .001). Similarly, on average, the best-performing ML models had a significantly higher logit (AUC) than the LR models (Δlogit [AUC], 0.41; 95% CI, 0.23-0.58; P < .001). Approximately half of studies (44%) were found to have a low risk of bias. Upon a subset analysis of only low-risk studies, the difference in logit (AUC) remained significant (ML vs LR, Δlogit [AUC], 0.40; 95% CI, 0.14-0.66; P = .009). CONCLUSION We found a significant improvement in discriminatory ability when using ML over LR algorithms in predicting postoperative outcomes for patients undergoing GI surgery. Subsequent efforts should establish standardized protocols for both developing and reporting studies using ML models and explore the practical implementation of these models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane Wang
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Francesca Tozzi
- Department of General, HPB Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Amir Ashraf Ganjouei
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Fernanda Romero-Hernandez
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Jean Feng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Lucia Calthorpe
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Maria Castro
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Greta Davis
- Department of Surgery, Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Jacquelyn Withers
- Department of Surgery, Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Connie Zhou
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Zaim Chaudhary
- University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States
| | - Mohamed Adam
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Frederik Berrevoet
- Department of General, HPB Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Adnan Alseidi
- Department of Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States
| | - Nikdokht Rashidian
- Department of General, HPB Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium.
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12
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Cheng Y, Tang Q, Li X, Ma L, Yuan J, Hou X. Meta-lasso: new insight on infection prediction after minimally invasive surgery. Med Biol Eng Comput 2024; 62:1703-1715. [PMID: 38347344 DOI: 10.1007/s11517-024-03027-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/09/2024]
Abstract
Surgical site infection (SSI) after minimally invasive lung cancer surgery constitutes an important factor influencing the direct and indirect economic implications, patient prognosis, and the 5-year survival rate for early-stage lung cancer patients. In the realm of predictive healthcare, machine learning algorithms have been instrumental in anticipating various surgical outcomes, including SSI. However, accurately predicting infection after minimally invasive surgery remains a clinical challenge due to the multitude of physiological and surgical factors associated with it. Furthermore, clinical patient data, in addition to being high-dimensional, often exists the long-tail problem, posing difficulties for traditional machine learning algorithms in effectively processing such data. Based on this insight, we propose a novel approach called meta-lasso for infection prediction following minimally invasive surgery. Our approach leverages the sparse learning algorithm lasso regression to select informative features and introduces a meta-learning framework to mitigate bias towards the dominant class. We conducted a retrospective cohort study on patients who had undergone minimally invasive surgery for lung cancer at Shanghai Chest Hospital between 2018 and 2020. The evaluation encompassed key performance metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, precision (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy. Our approach has surpassed the performance of logistic regression, random forest, Naive Bayes classifier, gradient boosting decision tree, ANN, and lasso regression, with sensitivity at 0.798, specificity at 0.779, precision at 0.789, NPV at 0.798, and accuracy at 0.788 and has greatly improved the classification performance of the inferior class.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuejia Cheng
- Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 241 West Huaihai Road, 200030, Shanghai, China
| | - Qinhua Tang
- Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 241 West Huaihai Road, 200030, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiang Li
- School of Computer Science, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, 200044, Shanghai, China
| | - Liyan Ma
- School of Computer Science, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, 200044, Shanghai, China
| | - Junyi Yuan
- Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 241 West Huaihai Road, 200030, Shanghai, China
| | - Xumin Hou
- Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 241 West Huaihai Road, 200030, Shanghai, China.
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13
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Li B, Aljabri B, Verma R, Beaton D, Hussain MA, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Al‐Omran M. Predicting Outcomes Following Lower Extremity Endovascular Revascularization Using Machine Learning. J Am Heart Assoc 2024; 13:e033194. [PMID: 38639373 PMCID: PMC11179886 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.123.033194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lower extremity endovascular revascularization for peripheral artery disease carries nonnegligible perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning, we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity endovascular revascularization. METHODS AND RESULTS The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent lower extremity endovascular revascularization (angioplasty, stent, or atherectomy) for peripheral artery disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 38 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day postprocedural major adverse limb event (composite of major reintervention, untreated loss of patency, or major amputation) or death. Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 machine learning models were trained using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Overall, 21 886 patients were included, and 30-day major adverse limb event/death occurred in 1964 (9.0%) individuals. The best performing model for predicting 30-day major adverse limb event/death was extreme gradient boosting, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94). In comparison, logistic regression had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.74). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.09. The top 3 predictive features in our algorithm were (1) chronic limb-threatening ischemia, (2) tibial intervention, and (3) congestive heart failure. CONCLUSIONS Our machine learning models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity endovascular revascularization using preoperative data with good discrimination and calibration. Prospective validation is warranted to assess for generalizability and external validity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of SurgeryUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Division of Vascular SurgerySt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T‐CAIREM)University of TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Badr Aljabri
- Department of SurgeryKing Saud UniversityRiyadhSaudi Arabia
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in IrelandUniversity of Medicine and Health SciencesDublinIreland
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health TorontoUniversity of TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Mohamad A. Hussain
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery and the Center for Surgery and Public Health, Brigham and Women’s HospitalHarvard Medical SchoolBostonMAUSA
| | - Douglas S. Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac CentreUniversity Health NetworkTorontoCanada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- ICES, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Duminda N. Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- ICES, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Department of AnesthesiaSt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of SurgeryUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Division of Vascular SurgerySt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- ICES, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T‐CAIREM)University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health TorontoUniversity of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- ICES, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of PharmacyUniversity of TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Mohammed Al‐Omran
- Department of SurgeryUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Division of Vascular SurgerySt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T‐CAIREM)University of TorontoTorontoCanada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
- Department of SurgeryKing Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research CenterRiyadhSaudi Arabia
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14
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Li B, Khan H, Shaikh F, Zamzam A, Abdin R, Qadura M. Identification and Evaluation of Blood-Based Biomarkers for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm. J Proteome Res 2024. [PMID: 38647339 DOI: 10.1021/acs.jproteome.4c00254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Blood-based biomarkers for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) have been studied individually; however, we considered a panel of proteins to investigate AAA prognosis and its potential to improve predictive accuracy. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with/without AAA (n = 452), we conducted a prognostic study to develop a model that accurately predicts AAA outcomes using clinical features and circulating biomarker levels. Serum concentrations of 9 biomarkers were measured at baseline, and the cohort was followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was major adverse aortic event (MAAE; composite of rapid AAA expansion [>0.5 cm/6 months or >1 cm/12 months], AAA intervention, or AAA rupture). Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained a random forest model to predict 2 year MAAE using (1) clinical characteristics, (2) biomarkers, and (3) clinical characteristics and biomarkers. RESULTS Two-year MAAE occurred in 114 (25%) patients. Two proteins were significantly elevated in patients with AAA compared with those without AAA (angiopoietin-2 and aggrecan), composing the protein panel. For predicting 2 year MAAE, our random forest model achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 using clinical features alone, and the addition of the 2-protein panel improved performance to AUROC 0.86. CONCLUSIONS Using a combination of clinical/biomarker data, we developed a model that accurately predicts 2 year MAAE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto M5T 1P5, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto M5B 1W8, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto M5S 1A8, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto M5G 2C8, Canada
| | - Hamzah Khan
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Farah Shaikh
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Abdelrahman Zamzam
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Rawand Abdin
- Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton L8S 4L8, Canada
| | - Mohammad Qadura
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto M5T 1P5, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto M5B 1W8, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto M5S 1A8, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto M5B 1W8, Canada
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15
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Li B, Eisenberg N, Beaton D, Lee DS, Aljabri B, Verma R, Wijeysundera DN, Rotstein OD, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Roche-Nagle G, Al-Omran M. Using Machine Learning (XGBoost) to Predict Outcomes After Infrainguinal Bypass for Peripheral Artery Disease. Ann Surg 2024; 279:705-713. [PMID: 38116648 DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000006181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict outcomes after infrainguinal bypass. BACKGROUND Infrainguinal bypass for peripheral artery disease carries significant surgical risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. METHODS The Vascular Quality Initiative database was used to identify patients who underwent infrainguinal bypass for peripheral artery disease between 2003 and 2023. We identified 97 potential predictor variables from the index hospitalization [68 preoperative (demographic/clinical), 13 intraoperative (procedural), and 16 postoperative (in-hospital course/complications)]. The primary outcome was 1-year major adverse limb event (composite of surgical revision, thrombectomy/thrombolysis, or major amputation) or death. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained 6 ML models using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The top-performing algorithm was further trained using intraoperative and postoperative features. Model robustness was evaluated using calibration plots and Brier scores. RESULTS Overall, 59,784 patients underwent infrainguinal bypass, and 15,942 (26.7%) developed 1-year major adverse limb event/death. The best preoperative prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC (95% CI) of 0.94 (0.93-0.95). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC (95% CI) of 0.61 (0.59-0.63). Our XGBoost model maintained excellent performance at the intraoperative and postoperative stages, with AUROCs (95% CI's) of 0.94 (0.93-0.95) and 0.96 (0.95-0.97), respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with Brier scores of 0.08 (preoperative), 0.07 (intraoperative), and 0.05 (postoperative). CONCLUSIONS ML models can accurately predict outcomes after infrainguinal bypass, outperforming logistic regression.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Naomi Eisenberg
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Badr Aljabri
- Department of Surgery, King Saud University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Ori D Rotstein
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of General Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Graham Roche-Nagle
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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16
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Yanagawa R, Iwadoh K, Akabane M, Imaoka Y, Bozhilov KK, Melcher ML, Sasaki K. LightGBM outperforms other machine learning techniques in predicting graft failure after liver transplantation: Creation of a predictive model through large-scale analysis. Clin Transplant 2024; 38:e15316. [PMID: 38607291 DOI: 10.1111/ctr.15316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2023] [Revised: 03/18/2024] [Accepted: 03/24/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of graft failure following liver transplantation (LTx) is consistent. While traditional risk scores for LTx have limited accuracy, the potential of machine learning (ML) in this area remains uncertain, despite its promise in other transplant domains. This study aims to determine ML's predictive limitations in LTx by replicating methods used in previous heart transplant research. METHODS This study utilized the UNOS STAR database, selecting 64,384 adult patients who underwent LTx between 2010 and 2020. Gradient boosting models (XGBoost and LightGBM) were used to predict 14, 30, and 90-day graft failure compared to conventional logistic regression model. Models were evaluated using both shuffled and rolling cross-validation (CV) methodologies. Model performance was assessed using the AUC across validation iterations. RESULTS In a study comparing predictive models for 14-day, 30-day and 90-day graft survival, LightGBM consistently outperformed other models, achieving the highest AUC of.740,.722, and.700 in shuffled CV methods. However, in rolling CV the accuracy of the model declined across every ML algorithm. The analysis revealed influential factors for graft survival prediction across all models, including total bilirubin, medical condition, recipient age, and donor AST, among others. Several features like donor age and recipient diabetes history were important in two out of three models. CONCLUSIONS LightGBM enhances short-term graft survival predictions post-LTx. However, due to changing medical practices and selection criteria, continuous model evaluation is essential. Future studies should focus on temporal variations, clinical implications, and ensure model transparency for broader medical utility.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kazuhiro Iwadoh
- Department of Transplant Surgery, Mita Hospital, International University of Health and Welfare, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Miho Akabane
- Division of Abdominal Transplant, Department of Surgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Yuki Imaoka
- Division of Abdominal Transplant, Department of Surgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California, USA
- Department of Gastroenterological and Transplant Surgery, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Kliment Krassimirov Bozhilov
- Division of Abdominal Transplant, Department of Surgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Marc L Melcher
- Division of Abdominal Transplant, Department of Surgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Kazunari Sasaki
- Division of Abdominal Transplant, Department of Surgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California, USA
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Kregel HR, Hatton GE, Harvin JA, Puzio TJ, Wade CE, Kao LS. Identifying Age-Specific Risk Factors for Poor Outcomes After Trauma With Machine Learning. J Surg Res 2024; 296:465-471. [PMID: 38320366 DOI: 10.1016/j.jss.2023.12.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 12/04/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 02/08/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Risk stratification for poor outcomes is not currently age-specific. Risk stratification of older patients based on observational cohorts primarily composed of young patients may result in suboptimal clinical care and inaccurate quality benchmarking. We assessed two hypotheses. First, we hypothesized that risk factors for poor outcomes after trauma are age-dependent and, second, that the relative importance of various risk factors are also age-dependent. METHODS A cohort study of severely injured adult trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit 2014-2018 was performed using trauma registry data. Random forest algorithms predicting poor outcomes (death or complication) were built and validated using three cohorts: (1) patients of all ages, (2) younger patients, and (3) older patients. Older patients were defined as aged 55 y or more to maintain consistency with prior trauma literature. Complications assessed included acute renal failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome, cardiac arrest, unplanned intubation, unplanned intensive care unit admission, and unplanned return to the operating room, as defined by the trauma quality improvement program. Mean decrease in model accuracy (MDA), if each variable was removed and scaled to a Z-score, was calculated. MDA change ≥4 standard deviations between age cohorts was considered significant. RESULTS Of 5489 patients, 25% were older. Poor outcomes occurred in 12% of younger and 33% of older patients. Head injury was the most important predictor of poor outcome in all cohorts. In the full cohort, age was the most important predictor of poor outcomes after head injury. Within age cohorts, the most important predictors of poor outcomes, after head injury, were surgery requirement in younger patients and arrival Glasgow Coma Scale in older patients. Compared to younger patients, head injury and arrival Glasgow Coma Scale had the greatest increase in importance for older patients, while systolic blood pressure had the greatest decrease in importance. CONCLUSIONS Supervised machine learning identified differences in risk factors and their relative associations with poor outcomes based on age. Age-specific models may improve hospital benchmarking and identify quality improvement targets for older trauma patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather R Kregel
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Surgical Trials and Evidence-Based Practice, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Translational Injury, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas.
| | - Gabrielle E Hatton
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Surgical Trials and Evidence-Based Practice, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Translational Injury, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas
| | - John A Harvin
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Translational Injury, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas
| | - Thaddeus J Puzio
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas
| | - Charles E Wade
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Translational Injury, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas
| | - Lillian S Kao
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Surgical Trials and Evidence-Based Practice, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas; Center for Translational Injury, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, Texas
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Li B, Shaikh F, Zamzam A, Syed MH, Abdin R, Qadura M. A machine learning algorithm for peripheral artery disease prognosis using biomarker data. iScience 2024; 27:109081. [PMID: 38361633 PMCID: PMC10867451 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Revised: 01/11/2024] [Accepted: 01/26/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Peripheral artery disease (PAD) biomarkers have been studied in isolation; however, an algorithm that considers a protein panel to inform PAD prognosis may improve predictive accuracy. Biomarker-based prediction models were developed and evaluated using a model development (n = 270) and prospective validation cohort (n = 277). Plasma concentrations of 37 proteins were measured at baseline and the patients were followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was 2-year major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of vascular intervention or major amputation). Of the 37 proteins tested, 6 were differentially expressed in patients with vs. without PAD (ADAMTS13, ICAM-1, ANGPTL3, Alpha 1-microglobulin, GDF15, and endostatin). Using 10-fold cross-validation, we developed a random forest machine learning model that accurately predicts 2-year MALE in a prospective validation cohort of PAD patients using a 6-protein panel (AUROC 0.84). This algorithm can support PAD risk stratification, informing clinical decisions on further vascular evaluation and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Farah Shaikh
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Abdelrahman Zamzam
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Muzammil H. Syed
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Rawand Abdin
- Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Mohammad Qadura
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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Li B, Verma R, Beaton D, Tamim H, Hussain MA, Hoballah JJ, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Al-Omran M. Predicting Outcomes Following Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair Using Machine Learning. Ann Surg 2024; 279:521-527. [PMID: 37389890 DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000005978] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop machine learning (ML) models that predict outcomes following endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). BACKGROUND EVAR carries non-negligible perioperative risks; however, there are no widely used outcome prediction tools. METHODS The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted database was used to identify patients who underwent EVAR for infrarenal AAA between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 36 preoperative variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death). Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 ML models were trained using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess model performance based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, and prior AAA repair. RESULTS Overall, 16,282 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event occurred in 390 (2.4%) patients. Our best-performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.95 (0.94-0.96) compared with logistic regression [0.72 [0.70-0.74)]. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.06. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS Our newer ML models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following EVAR using preoperative data and perform better than logistic regression. Our automated algorithms can guide risk mitigation strategies for patients being considered for EVAR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science and Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Hani Tamim
- Faculty of Medicine, Clinical Research Institute, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohamad A Hussain
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery and the Center for Surgery and Public Health, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Jamal J Hoballah
- Department of Surgery, Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Data Science and Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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20
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Li B, Eisenberg N, Beaton D, Lee DS, Aljabri B, Wijeysundera DN, Rotstein OD, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Roche-Nagle G, Al-Omran M. Using machine learning to predict outcomes following suprainguinal bypass. J Vasc Surg 2024; 79:593-608.e8. [PMID: 37804954 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2023.09.037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2023] [Revised: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 09/24/2023] [Indexed: 10/09/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Suprainguinal bypass for peripheral artery disease (PAD) carries important surgical risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict outcomes following suprainguinal bypass. METHODS The Vascular Quality Initiative database was used to identify patients who underwent suprainguinal bypass for PAD between 2003 and 2023. We identified 100 potential predictor variables from the index hospitalization (68 preoperative [demographic/clinical], 13 intraoperative [procedural], and 19 postoperative [in-hospital course/complications]). The primary outcomes were major adverse limb events (MALE; composite of untreated loss of patency, thrombectomy/thrombolysis, surgical revision, or major amputation) or death at 1 year following suprainguinal bypass. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained six ML models using preoperative features (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The best performing algorithm was further trained using intra- and postoperative data. Model robustness was evaluated using calibration plots and Brier scores. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, rurality, median Area Deprivation Index, symptom status, procedure type, prior intervention for PAD, concurrent interventions, and urgency. RESULTS Overall, 16,832 patients underwent suprainguinal bypass, and 3136 (18.6%) developed 1-year MALE or death. Patients with 1-year MALE or death were older (mean age, 64.9 vs 63.5 years; P < .001) with more comorbidities, had poorer functional status (65.7% vs 80.9% independent at baseline; P < .001), and were more likely to have chronic limb-threatening ischemia (67.4% vs 47.6%; P < .001) than those without an outcome. Despite being at higher cardiovascular risk, they were less likely to receive acetylsalicylic acid or statins preoperatively and at discharge. Our best performing prediction model at the preoperative stage was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-0.93). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.69). Our XGBoost model maintained excellent performance at the intra- and postoperative stages, with AUROCs of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97-0.99), respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with Brier scores of 0.12 (preoperative), 0.11 (intraoperative), and 0.10 (postoperative). Of the top 10 predictors, nine were preoperative features including chronic limb-threatening ischemia, previous procedures, comorbidities, and functional status. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS We developed ML models that accurately predict outcomes following suprainguinal bypass, performing better than logistic regression. Our algorithms have potential for important utility in guiding perioperative risk mitigation strategies to prevent adverse outcomes following suprainguinal bypass.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Naomi Eisenberg
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Badr Aljabri
- Department of Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Canada
| | - Ori D Rotstein
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Canada; Division of General Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Canada; Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Graham Roche-Nagle
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Canada; Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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21
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Li B, Verma R, Beaton D, Tamim H, Hussain MA, Hoballah JJ, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Al-Omran M. Predicting outcomes following lower extremity open revascularization using machine learning. Sci Rep 2024; 14:2899. [PMID: 38316811 PMCID: PMC10844206 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-52944-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Lower extremity open revascularization is a treatment option for peripheral artery disease that carries significant peri-operative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning (ML), we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity open revascularization. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent lower extremity open revascularization for chronic atherosclerotic disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 37 pre-operative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of untreated loss of patency, major reintervention, or major amputation) or death. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using tenfold cross-validation, we trained 6 ML models. Overall, 24,309 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day MALE or death occurred in 2349 (9.3%) patients. Our best performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.93 (0.92-0.94). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.08. Our ML algorithm has potential for important utility in guiding risk mitigation strategies for patients being considered for lower extremity open revascularization to improve outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Hani Tamim
- Faculty of Medicine, Clinical Research Institute, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohamad A Hussain
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery and the Center for Surgery and Public Health, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
| | - Jamal J Hoballah
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada.
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
- Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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Lin WC, Chen A, Song X, Weiskopf NG, Chiang MF, Hribar MR. Prediction of multiclass surgical outcomes in glaucoma using multimodal deep learning based on free-text operative notes and structured EHR data. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2024; 31:456-464. [PMID: 37964658 PMCID: PMC10797280 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocad213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Revised: 10/16/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Surgical outcome prediction is challenging but necessary for postoperative management. Current machine learning models utilize pre- and post-op data, excluding intraoperative information in surgical notes. Current models also usually predict binary outcomes even when surgeries have multiple outcomes that require different postoperative management. This study addresses these gaps by incorporating intraoperative information into multimodal models for multiclass glaucoma surgery outcome prediction. MATERIALS AND METHODS We developed and evaluated multimodal deep learning models for multiclass glaucoma trabeculectomy surgery outcomes using both structured EHR data and free-text operative notes. We compare those to baseline models that use structured EHR data exclusively, or neural network models that leverage only operative notes. RESULTS The multimodal neural network had the highest performance with a macro AUROC of 0.750 and F1 score of 0.583. It outperformed the baseline machine learning model with structured EHR data alone (macro AUROC of 0.712 and F1 score of 0.486). Additionally, the multimodal model achieved the highest recall (0.692) for hypotony surgical failure, while the surgical success group had the highest precision (0.884) and F1 score (0.775). DISCUSSION This study shows that operative notes are an important source of predictive information. The multimodal predictive model combining perioperative notes and structured pre- and post-op EHR data outperformed other models. Multiclass surgical outcome prediction can provide valuable insights for clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS Our results show the potential of deep learning models to enhance clinical decision-making for postoperative management. They can be applied to other specialties to improve surgical outcome predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Chun Lin
- Department of Medical Informatics & Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health & Science University, 3181 S.W. Sam Jackson Park Rd, Portland, OR, 97239, United States
- Department of Ophthalmology, Casey Eye Institute, Oregon Health & Science University, 545 SW Campus Dr, Portland, OR, 97239, United States
| | - Aiyin Chen
- Department of Ophthalmology, Casey Eye Institute, Oregon Health & Science University, 545 SW Campus Dr, Portland, OR, 97239, United States
| | - Xubo Song
- Department of Medical Informatics & Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health & Science University, 3181 S.W. Sam Jackson Park Rd, Portland, OR, 97239, United States
| | - Nicole G Weiskopf
- Department of Medical Informatics & Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health & Science University, 3181 S.W. Sam Jackson Park Rd, Portland, OR, 97239, United States
| | - Michael F Chiang
- National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, 31 Center Dr MSC 2510, Bethesda, MD, 20892, United States
- National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, 8600 Rockville Pike, Bethesda, MD, 20894, United States
| | - Michelle R Hribar
- Department of Medical Informatics & Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health & Science University, 3181 S.W. Sam Jackson Park Rd, Portland, OR, 97239, United States
- Department of Ophthalmology, Casey Eye Institute, Oregon Health & Science University, 545 SW Campus Dr, Portland, OR, 97239, United States
- National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, 31 Center Dr MSC 2510, Bethesda, MD, 20892, United States
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Vannucci M, Niyishaka P, Collins T, Rodríguez-Luna MR, Mascagni P, Hostettler A, Marescaux J, Perretta S. Machine learning models to predict success of endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty using total and excess weight loss percent achievement: a multicentre study. Surg Endosc 2024; 38:229-239. [PMID: 37973639 PMCID: PMC10776503 DOI: 10.1007/s00464-023-10520-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The large amount of heterogeneous data collected in surgical/endoscopic practice calls for data-driven approaches as machine learning (ML) models. The aim of this study was to develop ML models to predict endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) efficacy at 12 months defined by total weight loss (TWL) % and excess weight loss (EWL) % achievement. Multicentre data were used to enhance generalizability: evaluate consistency among different center of ESG practice and assess reproducibility of the models and possible clinical application. Models were designed to be dynamic and integrate follow-up clinical data into more accurate predictions, possibly assisting management and decision-making. METHODS ML models were developed using data of 404 ESG procedures performed at 12 centers across Europe. Collected data included clinical and demographic variables at the time of ESG and at follow-up. Multicentre/external and single center/internal and temporal validation were performed. Training and evaluation of the models were performed on Python's scikit-learn library. Performance of models was quantified as receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and calibration plots. RESULTS Multicenter external validation: ML models using preoperative data show poor performance. Best performances were reached by linear regression (LR) and support vector machine models for TWL% and EWL%, respectively, (ROC-AUC: TWL% 0.87, EWL% 0.86) with the addition of 6-month follow-up data. Single-center internal validation: Preoperative data only ML models show suboptimal performance. Early, i.e., 3-month follow-up data addition lead to ROC-AUC of 0.79 (random forest classifiers model) and 0.81 (LR models) for TWL% and EWL% achievement prediction, respectively. Single-center temporal validation shows similar results. CONCLUSIONS Although preoperative data only may not be sufficient for accurate postoperative predictions, the ability of ML models to adapt and evolve with the patients changes could assist in providing an effective and personalized postoperative care. ML models predictive capacity improvement with follow-up data is encouraging and may become a valuable support in patient management and decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Vannucci
- General Surgery Department, University of Torino, Turin, Italy.
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Strasbourg, France.
- , Turin, Italy.
| | | | - Toby Collins
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Strasbourg, France
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Kigali, Rwanda
| | - María Rita Rodríguez-Luna
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Strasbourg, France
- ICube Laboratory, Photonics Instrumentation for Health, Strasbourg, France
| | - Pietro Mascagni
- Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS, Rome, Italy
- Research Group CAMMA, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
| | - Alexandre Hostettler
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Strasbourg, France
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Jacques Marescaux
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Strasbourg, France
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Silvana Perretta
- Research Institute Against Digestive Cancer (IRCAD), Strasbourg, France
- Department of Digestive and Endocrine Surgery, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
- IHU-Strasbourg, Institute of Image-Guided Surgery, Strasbourg, France
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24
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Li B, Aljabri B, Verma R, Beaton D, Eisenberg N, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, Forbes TL, Rotstein OD, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Roche-Nagle G, Al-Omran M. Using machine learning to predict outcomes following open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. J Vasc Surg 2023; 78:1426-1438.e6. [PMID: 37634621 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2023.08.121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2023] [Revised: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/29/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Prediction of outcomes following open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair remains challenging with a lack of widely used tools to guide perioperative management. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict outcomes following open AAA repair. METHODS The Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database was used to identify patients who underwent elective open AAA repair between 2003 and 2023. Input features included 52 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. All available preoperative variables from VQI were used to maximize predictive performance. The primary outcome was in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death). Secondary outcomes were individual components of the primary outcome, other in-hospital complications, and 1-year mortality and any reintervention. We split our data into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, six ML models were trained using preoperative features (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. The top 10 predictive features in our final model were determined based on variable importance scores. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, rurality, median area deprivation index, proximal clamp site, prior aortic surgery, and concomitant procedures. RESULTS Overall, 12,027 patients were included. The primary outcome of in-hospital MACE occurred in 630 patients (5.2%). Compared with patients without a primary outcome, those who developed in-hospital MACE were older with more comorbidities, demonstrated poorer functional status, had more complex aneurysms, and were more likely to require concomitant procedures. Our best performing prediction model for in-hospital MACE was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.94). Comparatively, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73). For secondary outcomes, XGBoost achieved AUROCs between 0.84 and 0.94. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.05. These findings highlight the excellent predictive performance of the XGBoost model. The top three predictive features in our algorithm for in-hospital MACE following open AAA repair were: (1) coronary artery disease; (2) American Society of Anesthesiologists classification; and (3) proximal clamp site. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS Open AAA repair outcomes can be accurately predicted using preoperative data with our ML models, which perform better than logistic regression. Our automated algorithms can help guide risk-mitigation strategies for patients being considered for open AAA repair to improve outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Badr Aljabri
- Department of Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science and Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Naomi Eisenberg
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Thomas L Forbes
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Ori D Rotstein
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of General Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Data Science and Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Graham Roche-Nagle
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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25
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Li B, Verma R, Beaton D, Tamim H, Hussain MA, Hoballah JJ, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Al-Omran M. Predicting outcomes following open revascularization for aortoiliac occlusive disease using machine learning. J Vasc Surg 2023; 78:1449-1460.e7. [PMID: 37454952 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2023.07.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2023] [Accepted: 07/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Open surgical treatment options for aortoiliac occlusive disease carry significant perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning (ML), we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following open aortoiliac revascularization. METHODS The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent open aortoiliac revascularization for atherosclerotic disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 38 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of untreated loss of patency, major reintervention, or major amputation) or death. The 30-day secondary outcomes were individual components of the primary outcome, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death), individual components of MACE, wound complication, bleeding, other morbidity, non-home discharge, and unplanned readmission. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained six ML models using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Variable importance scores were calculated to determine the top 10 predictive features. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, symptom status, procedure type, and urgency. RESULTS Overall, 9649 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day MALE or death occurred in 1021 patients (10.6%). Our best performing prediction model for 30-day MALE or death was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-0.96). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.77-0.81). For 30-day secondary outcomes, XGBoost achieved AUROCs between 0.87 and 0.97 (untreated loss of patency [0.95], major reintervention [0.88], major amputation [0.96], death [0.97], MACE [0.95], myocardial infarction [0.88], stroke [0.93], wound complication [0.94], bleeding [0.87], other morbidity [0.96], non-home discharge [0.90], and unplanned readmission [0.91]). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.05. The strongest predictive feature in our algorithm was chronic limb-threatening ischemia. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses of specific demographic/clinical populations. CONCLUSIONS Our ML models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following open aortoiliac revascularization using preoperative data, performing better than logistic regression. They have potential for important utility in guiding risk-mitigation strategies for patients being considered for open aortoiliac revascularization to improve outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Derek Beaton
- Department of Data Science and Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Hani Tamim
- Faculty of Medicine, Clinical Research Institute, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon; College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohamad A Hussain
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery and the Center for Surgery and Public Health, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
| | - Jamal J Hoballah
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Data Science and Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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26
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Li B, Aljabri B, Verma R, Beaton D, Eisenberg N, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, Forbes TL, Rotstein OD, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Roche-Nagle G, Al-Omran M. Machine learning to predict outcomes following endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. Br J Surg 2023; 110:1840-1849. [PMID: 37710397 DOI: 10.1093/bjs/znad287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Revised: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/27/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) carries important perioperative risks; however, there are no widely used outcome prediction tools. The aim of this study was to apply machine learning (ML) to develop automated algorithms that predict 1-year mortality following EVAR. METHODS The Vascular Quality Initiative database was used to identify patients who underwent elective EVAR for infrarenal AAA between 2003 and 2023. Input features included 47 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality. Data were split into training (70 per cent) and test (30 per cent) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 ML models were trained using preoperative features with logistic regression as the baseline comparator. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. RESULTS Some 63 655 patients were included. One-year mortality occurred in 3122 (4.9 per cent) patients. The best performing prediction model for 1-year mortality was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC (95 per cent c.i.) of 0.96 (0.95-0.97). Comparatively, logistic regression had an AUROC (95 per cent c.i.) of 0.69 (0.68-0.71). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.04. The top 3 predictive features in the algorithm were 1) unfit for open AAA repair, 2) functional status, and 3) preoperative dialysis. CONCLUSIONS In this data set, machine learning was able to predict 1-year mortality following EVAR using preoperative data and outperformed standard logistic regression models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Badr Aljabri
- Department of Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Naomi Eisenberg
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Anesthesia, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Thomas L Forbes
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ori D Rotstein
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of General Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Graham Roche-Nagle
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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Li B, Verma R, Beaton D, Tamim H, Hussain MA, Hoballah JJ, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Al‐Omran M. Predicting Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events Following Carotid Endarterectomy Using Machine Learning. J Am Heart Assoc 2023; 12:e030508. [PMID: 37804197 PMCID: PMC10757546 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.123.030508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/09/2023]
Abstract
Background Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is a major vascular operation for stroke prevention that carries significant perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. The authors developed machine learning algorithms to predict outcomes following CEA. Methods and Results The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent CEA between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 36 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death). The data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 machine learning models were trained using preoperative features. The primary metric for evaluating model performance was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Overall, 38 853 patients underwent CEA during the study period. Thirty-day major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 1683 (4.3%) patients. The best performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.90-0.92). In comparison, logistic regression had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.60-0.64), and existing tools in the literature demonstrate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values ranging from 0.58 to 0.74. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.02. The strongest predictive feature in our algorithm was carotid symptom status. Conclusions The machine learning models accurately predicted 30-day outcomes following CEA using preoperative data and performed better than existing tools. They have potential for important utility in guiding risk-mitigation strategies to improve outcomes for patients being considered for CEA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of SurgeryUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Institute of Medical ScienceUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T‐CAIREM)University of TorontoCanada
| | - Raj Verma
- School of Medicine, Royal College of Surgeons in IrelandUniversity of Medicine and Health SciencesDublinIreland
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health TorontoUniversity of TorontoCanada
| | - Hani Tamim
- Faculty of Medicine, Clinical Research InstituteAmerican University of Beirut Medical CenterBeirutLebanon
- College of MedicineAlfaisal UniversityRiyadhKingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohamad A. Hussain
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery and the Center for Surgery and Public Health, Brigham and Women’s HospitalHarvard Medical SchoolBostonMAUSA
| | - Jamal J. Hoballah
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of SurgeryAmerican University of Beirut Medical CenterBeirutLebanon
| | - Douglas S. Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac CentreUniversity Health NetworkTorontoCanada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and EvaluationUniversity of TorontoCanada
- ICESUniversity of TorontoCanada
| | - Duminda N. Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and EvaluationUniversity of TorontoCanada
- ICESUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Department of AnesthesiaSt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge InstituteSt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of SurgeryUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and EvaluationUniversity of TorontoCanada
- ICESUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge InstituteSt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical ScienceUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T‐CAIREM)University of TorontoCanada
- Data Science & Advanced Analytics, Unity Health TorontoUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and EvaluationUniversity of TorontoCanada
- ICESUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge InstituteSt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of PharmacyUniversity of TorontoCanada
| | - Mohammed Al‐Omran
- Department of SurgeryUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Institute of Medical ScienceUniversity of TorontoCanada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T‐CAIREM)University of TorontoCanada
- College of MedicineAlfaisal UniversityRiyadhKingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge InstituteSt. Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health TorontoTorontoCanada
- Department of SurgeryKing Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research CenterRiyadhKingdom of Saudi Arabia
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Kim YH, Kim I, Kim YJ, Kim M, Cho JH, Hong M, Kang KH, Lim SH, Kim SJ, Kim N, Shin JW, Sung SJ, Baek SH, Chae HS. The prediction of sagittal chin point relapse following two-jaw surgery using machine learning. Sci Rep 2023; 13:17005. [PMID: 37813915 PMCID: PMC10562368 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-44207-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/04/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023] Open
Abstract
The study aimed to identify critical factors associated with the surgical stability of pogonion (Pog) by applying machine learning (ML) to predict relapse following two-jaw orthognathic surgery (2 J-OGJ). The sample set comprised 227 patients (110 males and 117 females, 207 training and 20 test sets). Using lateral cephalograms taken at the initial evaluation (T0), pretreatment (T1), after (T2) 2 J-OGS, and post treatment (T3), 55 linear and angular skeletal and dental surgical movements (T2-T1) were measured. Six ML modes were utilized, including classification and regression trees (CART), conditional inference tree (CTREE), and random forest (RF). The training samples were classified into three groups; highly significant (HS) (≥ 4), significant (S) (≥ 2 and < 4), and insignificant (N), depending on Pog relapse. RF indicated that the most important variable that affected relapse rank prediction was ramus inclination (RI), CTREE and CART revealed that a clockwise rotation of more than 3.7 and 1.8 degrees of RI was a risk factor for HS and S groups, respectively. RF, CTREE, and CART were practical tools for predicting surgical stability. More than 1.8 degrees of CW rotation of the ramus during surgery would lead to significant Pog relapse.
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Affiliation(s)
- Young Ho Kim
- Department of Orthodontics, Institute of Oral Health Science, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea
| | - Inhwan Kim
- Department of Convergence Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Asan Medical Institute of Convergence Science and Technology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yoon-Ji Kim
- Department of Orthodontics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Minji Kim
- Department of Orthodontics, College of Medicine, Ewha Woman's University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jin-Hyoung Cho
- Department of Orthodontics, Chonnam National University School of Dentistry, Gwangju, Korea
| | - Mihee Hong
- Department of Orthodontics, School of Dentistry, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
| | - Kyung-Hwa Kang
- Department of Orthodontics, School of Dentistry, Wonkwang University, Iksan, Korea
| | - Sung-Hoon Lim
- Department of Orthodontics, College of Dentistry, Chosun University, Gwangju, Korea
| | - Su-Jung Kim
- Department of Orthodontics, Kyung Hee University School of Dentistry, Seoul, Korea
| | - Namkug Kim
- Department of Convergence Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Asan Medical Institute of Convergence Science and Technology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jeong Won Shin
- Department of Orthodontics, Institute of Oral Health Science, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea
| | - Sang-Jin Sung
- Department of Orthodontics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Seung-Hak Baek
- Department of Orthodontics, School of Dentistry, Dental Research Institute, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Hwa Sung Chae
- Department of Orthodontics, Gwangmyeong Hospital, Chungang University, Gwangmyeong, Korea.
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Oduoye MO, Javed B, Gupta N, Valentina Sih CM. Algorithmic bias and research integrity; the role of nonhuman authors in shaping scientific knowledge with respect to artificial intelligence: a perspective. Int J Surg 2023; 109:2987-2990. [PMID: 37318857 PMCID: PMC10583945 DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000000552] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2023] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Artificial intelligence technologies were developed to assist authors in bettering the organization and caliber of their published papers, which are both growing in quantity and sophistication. Even though the usage of artificial intelligence tools in particular ChatGPT's natural language processing systems has been shown to be beneficial in research, there are still concerns about accuracy, responsibility, and transparency when it comes to the norms regarding authorship credit and contributions. Genomic algorithms quickly examine large amounts of genetic data to identify potential disease-causing mutations. By analyzing millions of medications for potential therapeutic benefits, they can quickly and relatively economically find novel approaches to treatment. Researchers from several fields can collaborate on difficult tasks with the assistance of nonhuman writers, promoting interdisciplinary research. Sadly, there are a number of significant disadvantages associated with employing nonhuman authors, including the potential for algorithmic prejudice. Biased data may be reinforced by the algorithm since machine learning algorithms can only be as objective as the data they are trained on. It is overdue that scholars bring forth basic moral concerns in the fight against algorithmic prejudice. Overall, even if the use of nonhuman authors has the potential to significantly improve scientific research, it is crucial for scientists to be aware of these drawbacks and take precautions to avoid bias and limits. To provide accurate and objective results, algorithms must be carefully designed and implemented, and researchers need to be mindful of the larger ethical ramifications of their usage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malik Olatunde Oduoye
- College of Medical Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital, Shika, Kaduna State, Nigeria
- Department of Medical Research, Medical Research Circle, Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo
| | - Binish Javed
- Department of Medical Research, Medical Research Circle, Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo
- Atal Bihari Vajpayee Institute of Medical Sciences and Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, New Delhi, India
| | - Nikhil Gupta
- Atal Bihari Vajpayee Institute of Medical Sciences and Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, New Delhi, India
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Li B, Beaton D, Eisenberg N, Lee DS, Wijeysundera DN, Lindsay TF, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Roche-Nagle G, Al-Omran M. Using machine learning to predict outcomes following carotid endarterectomy. J Vasc Surg 2023; 78:973-987.e6. [PMID: 37211142 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2023.05.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 05/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Prediction of outcomes following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) remains challenging, with a lack of standardized tools to guide perioperative management. We used machine learning (ML) to develop automated algorithms that predict outcomes following CEA. METHODS The Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database was used to identify patients who underwent CEA between 2003 and 2022. We identified 71 potential predictor variables (features) from the index hospitalization (43 preoperative [demographic/clinical], 21 intraoperative [procedural], and 7 postoperative [in-hospital complications]). The primary outcome was stroke or death at 1 year following CEA. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained six ML models using preoperative features (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). After selecting the best performing algorithm, additional models were built using intra- and postoperative data. Model robustness was evaluated using calibration plots and Brier scores. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, insurance status, symptom status, and urgency of surgery. RESULTS Overall, 166,369 patients underwent CEA during the study period. In total, 7749 patients (4.7%) had the primary outcome of stroke or death at 1 year. Patients with an outcome were older with more comorbidities, had poorer functional status, and demonstrated higher risk anatomic features. They were also more likely to undergo intraoperative surgical re-exploration and have in-hospital complications. Our best performing prediction model at the preoperative stage was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-0.91). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67), and existing tools in the literature demonstrate AUROCs ranging from 0.58 to 0.74. Our XGBoost models maintained excellent performance at the intra- and postoperative stages, with AUROCs of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.89-0.91) and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93-0.95), respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with Brier scores of 0.15 (preoperative), 0.14 (intraoperative), and 0.11 (postoperative). Of the top 10 predictors, eight were preoperative features, including comorbidities, functional status, and previous procedures. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS We developed ML models that accurately predict outcomes following CEA. Our algorithms perform better than logistic regression and existing tools, and therefore, have potential for important utility in guiding perioperative risk mitigation strategies to prevent adverse outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Derek Beaton
- Data Science and Advanced Analytics Department, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Naomi Eisenberg
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Douglas S Lee
- Division of Cardiology, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Anesthesia, St Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Thomas F Lindsay
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Data Science and Advanced Analytics Department, Unity Health Toronto, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; ICES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Graham Roche-Nagle
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Surgery, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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Jung JO, Pisula JI, Bozek K, Popp F, Fuchs HF, Schröder W, Bruns CJ, Schmidt T. Prediction of postoperative complications after oesophagectomy using machine-learning methods. Br J Surg 2023; 110:1361-1366. [PMID: 37343072 DOI: 10.1093/bjs/znad181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2023] [Revised: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Oesophagectomy is an operation with a high risk of postoperative complications. The aim of this single-centre retrospective study was to apply machine-learning methods to predict complications (Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or higher) and specific adverse events. METHODS Patients with resectable adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus and gastro-oesophageal junction who underwent Ivor Lewis oesophagectomy between 2016 and 2021 were included. The tested algorithms were logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, random forest, k-nearest neighbour, support vector machine, and neural network. The algorithms were also compared with a current risk score (the Cologne risk score). RESULTS 457 patients had Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or higher complications (52.9 per cent) versus 407 patients with Clavien-Dindo grade 0, I, or II complications (47.1 per cent). After 3-fold imputation and 3-fold cross-validation, the overall accuracies were: logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, 0.528; random forest, 0.535; k-nearest neighbour, 0.491; support vector machine, 0.511; neural network, 0.688; and Cologne risk score, 0.510. For medical complications, the results were: logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, 0.688; random forest, 0.664; k-nearest neighbour, 0.673; support vector machine, 0.681; neural network, 0.692; and Cologne risk score, 0.650. For surgical complications, the results were: logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, 0.621; random forest, 0.617; k-nearest neighbour, 0.620; support vector machine, 0.634; neural network, 0.667; and Cologne risk score, 0.624. The calculated area under the curve of the neural network was 0.672 for Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or higher, 0.695 for medical complications, and 0.653 for surgical complications. CONCLUSION The neural network scored the highest accuracies compared with all of the other models for the prediction of postoperative complications after oesophagectomy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jin-On Jung
- Department of General, Visceral, Tumour, and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Juan I Pisula
- Centre for Molecular Medicine Cologne (CMMC), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Kasia Bozek
- Centre for Molecular Medicine Cologne (CMMC), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Felix Popp
- Department of General, Visceral, Tumour, and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Hans F Fuchs
- Department of General, Visceral, Tumour, and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Wolfgang Schröder
- Department of General, Visceral, Tumour, and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Christiane J Bruns
- Department of General, Visceral, Tumour, and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Thomas Schmidt
- Department of General, Visceral, Tumour, and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
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Tangsrivimol JA, Schonfeld E, Zhang M, Veeravagu A, Smith TR, Härtl R, Lawton MT, El-Sherbini AH, Prevedello DM, Glicksberg BS, Krittanawong C. Artificial Intelligence in Neurosurgery: A State-of-the-Art Review from Past to Future. Diagnostics (Basel) 2023; 13:2429. [PMID: 37510174 PMCID: PMC10378231 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics13142429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Revised: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 07/30/2023] Open
Abstract
In recent years, there has been a significant surge in discussions surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), along with a corresponding increase in its practical applications in various facets of everyday life, including the medical industry. Notably, even in the highly specialized realm of neurosurgery, AI has been utilized for differential diagnosis, pre-operative evaluation, and improving surgical precision. Many of these applications have begun to mitigate risks of intraoperative and postoperative complications and post-operative care. This article aims to present an overview of the principal published papers on the significant themes of tumor, spine, epilepsy, and vascular issues, wherein AI has been applied to assess its potential applications within neurosurgery. The method involved identifying high-cited seminal papers using PubMed and Google Scholar, conducting a comprehensive review of various study types, and summarizing machine learning applications to enhance understanding among clinicians for future utilization. Recent studies demonstrate that machine learning (ML) holds significant potential in neuro-oncological care, spine surgery, epilepsy management, and other neurosurgical applications. ML techniques have proven effective in tumor identification, surgical outcomes prediction, seizure outcome prediction, aneurysm prediction, and more, highlighting its broad impact and potential in improving patient management and outcomes in neurosurgery. This review will encompass the current state of research, as well as predictions for the future of AI within neurosurgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A Tangsrivimol
- Division of Neurosurgery, Department of Surgery, Chulabhorn Hospital, Chulabhorn Royal Academy, Bangkok 10210, Thailand
- Department of Neurological Surgery, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and Jame Cancer Institute, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - Ethan Schonfeld
- Department Biomedical Informatics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA 94305, USA
| | - Michael Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA 94305, USA
| | - Anand Veeravagu
- Stanford Neurosurgical Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Laboratory, Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Timothy R Smith
- Department of Neurosurgery, Computational Neuroscience Outcomes Center (CNOC), Mass General Brigham, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Roger Härtl
- Weill Cornell Medicine Brain and Spine Center, New York, NY 10022, USA
| | - Michael T Lawton
- Department of Neurosurgery, Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI), Phoenix, AZ 85013, USA
| | - Adham H El-Sherbini
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Queen's University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada
| | - Daniel M Prevedello
- Department of Neurological Surgery, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and Jame Cancer Institute, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - Benjamin S Glicksberg
- Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY 10029, USA
| | - Chayakrit Krittanawong
- Cardiology Division, New York University Langone Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016, USA
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Irgang L, Barth H, Holmén M. Data-Driven Technologies as Enablers for Value Creation in the Prevention of Surgical Site Infections: a Systematic Review. JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS RESEARCH 2023; 7:1-41. [PMID: 36910913 PMCID: PMC9995622 DOI: 10.1007/s41666-023-00129-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2023]
Abstract
Despite the advances in modern medicine, the use of data-driven technologies (DDTs) to prevent surgical site infections (SSIs) remains a major challenge. Scholars recognise that data management is the next frontier in infection prevention, but many aspects related to the benefits and advantages of using DDTs to mitigate SSI risk factors remain unclear and underexplored in the literature. This study explores how DDTs enable value creation in the prevention of SSIs. This study follows a systematic literature review approach and the PRISMA statement to analyse peer-reviewed articles from seven databases. Fifty-nine articles were included in the review and were analysed through a descriptive and a thematic analysis. The findings suggest a growing interest in DDTs in SSI prevention in the last 5 years, and that machine learning and smartphone applications are widely used in SSI prevention. DDTs are mainly applied to prevent SSIs in clean and clean-contaminated surgeries and often used to manage patient-related data in the postoperative stage. DDTs enable the creation of nine categories of value that are classified in four dimensions: cost/sacrifice, functional/instrumental, experiential/hedonic, and symbolic/expressive. This study offers a unique and systematic overview of the value creation aspects enabled by DDT applications in SSI prevention and suggests that additional research is needed in four areas: value co-creation and product-service systems, DDTs in contaminated and dirty surgeries, data legitimation and explainability, and data-driven interventions. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41666-023-00129-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luís Irgang
- School of Business, Innovation and Sustainability - Department of Engineering and Innovation, Halmstad University, Halmstad, Sweden
| | - Henrik Barth
- School of Business, Innovation and Sustainability - Department of Engineering and Innovation, Halmstad University, Halmstad, Sweden
| | - Magnus Holmén
- School of Business, Innovation and Sustainability - Department of Engineering and Innovation, Halmstad University, Halmstad, Sweden
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Dong T, Sinha S, Zhai B, Fudulu DP, Chan J, Narayan P, Judge A, Caputo M, Dimagli A, Benedetto U, Angelini GD. Cardiac surgery risk prediction using ensemble machine learning to incorporate legacy risk scores: A benchmarking study. Digit Health 2023; 9:20552076231187605. [PMID: 37492033 PMCID: PMC10363892 DOI: 10.1177/20552076231187605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Accepted: 06/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective The introduction of new clinical risk scores (e.g. European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II) superseding original scores (e.g. EuroSCORE I) with different variable sets typically result in disparate datasets due to high levels of missingness for new score variables prior to time of adoption. Little is known about the use of ensemble learning to incorporate disparate data from legacy scores. We tested the hypothesised that Homogenenous and Heterogeneous Machine Learning (ML) ensembles will have better performance than ensembles of Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) for combining knowledge from EuroSCORE I legacy data with EuroSCORE II data to predict cardiac surgery risk. Methods Using the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit dataset, we trained 12 different base learner models, based on two different variable sets from either EuroSCORE I (LogES) or EuroScore II (ES II), partitioned by the time of score adoption (1996-2016 or 2012-2016) and evaluated on holdout set (2017-2019). These base learner models were ensembled using nine different combinations of six ML algorithms to produce homogeneous or heterogeneous ensembles. Performance was assessed using a consensus metric. Results Xgboost homogenous ensemble (HE) was the highest performing model (clinical effectiveness metric (CEM) 0.725) with area under the curve (AUC) (0.8327; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8323-0.8329) followed by Random Forest HE (CEM 0.723; AUC 0.8325; 95%CI 0.8320-0.8326). Across different heterogenous ensembles, significantly better performance was obtained by combining siloed datasets across time (CEM 0.720) than building ensembles of either 1996-2011 (t-test adjusted, p = 1.67×10-6) or 2012-2019 (t-test adjusted, p = 1.35×10-193) datasets alone. Conclusions Both homogenous and heterogenous ML ensembles performed significantly better than DMA ensemble of Bayesian Update models. Time-dependent ensemble combination of variables, having differing qualities according to time of score adoption, enabled previously siloed data to be combined, leading to increased power, clinical interpretability of variables and usage of data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Dong
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Shubhra Sinha
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Ben Zhai
- School of Computing Science, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Daniel P Fudulu
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Jeremy Chan
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Pradeep Narayan
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Rabindranath Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences, Kolkata, India
| | - Andy Judge
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Massimo Caputo
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Arnaldo Dimagli
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Umberto Benedetto
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Gianni D Angelini
- Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Sridhar S, Whitaker B, Mouat-Hunter A, McCrory B. Predicting Length of Stay using machine learning for total joint replacements performed at a rural community hospital. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0277479. [PMID: 36355762 PMCID: PMC9648742 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2022] [Accepted: 10/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Predicting patient’s Length of Stay (LOS) before total joint replacement (TJR) surgery is vital for hospitals to optimally manage costs and resources. Many hospitals including in rural areas use publicly available models such as National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) calculator which, unfortunately, performs suboptimally when predicting LOS for TJR procedures. Objective The objective of this research was to develop a Machine Learning (ML) model to predict LOS for TJR procedures performed at a Perioperative Surgical Home implemented rural community hospital for better accuracy and interpretation than the NSQIP calculator. Methods A total of 158 TJR patients were collected and analyzed from a rural community hospital located in Montana. A random forest (RF) model was used to predict patient’s LOS. For interpretation, permuted feature importance and partial dependence plot methods were used to identify the important variables and their relationship with the LOS. Results The root mean square error for the RF model (0.7) was lower than the NSQIP calculator (1.21). The five most important variables for predicting LOS were BMI, Duke Activity Status-Index, diabetes, patient’s household income, and patient’s age. Conclusion This pilot study is the first of its kind to develop an ML model to predict LOS for TJR procedures that were performed at a small-scale rural community hospital. This pilot study contributes an approach for rural hospitals, making them more independent by developing their own predictions instead of relying on public models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Srinivasan Sridhar
- Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Bradley Whitaker
- Electrical and Computer Engineering, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America
| | | | - Bernadette McCrory
- Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America
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Tran Z, Verma A, Wurdeman T, Burruss S, Mukherjee K, Benharash P. ICD-10 based machine learning models outperform the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) in survival prediction. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0276624. [PMID: 36301826 PMCID: PMC9612528 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 10/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Precise models are necessary to estimate mortality risk following traumatic injury to inform clinical decision making or quantify hospital performance. The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) has been the historical gold standard in survival prediction but its limitations are well-characterized. The present study used International Classification of Diseases 10thRevision (ICD-10) injury codes with machine learning approaches to develop models whose performance was compared to that of TRISS. Methods The 2015–2017 National Trauma Data Bank was used to identify patients following trauma-related admission. Injury codes from ICD-10 were grouped by clinical relevance into 1,495 variables. The TRISS score, which comprises the Injury Severity Score, age, mechanism (blunt vs penetrating) as well as highest 24-hour values for systolic blood pressure (SBP), respiratory rate (RR) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was calculated for each patient. A base eXtreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost), a machine learning technique, was developed using injury variables as well as age, SBP, RR, mechanism and GCS. Prediction of in-hospital survival and other in-hospital complications were compared between both models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability plots. A complete XGBoost model, containing injury variables, vitals, demographic information and comorbidities, was additionally developed. Results Of 1,380,740 patients, 1,338,417 (96.9%) survived to discharge. Compared to survivors, those who died were older and had a greater prevalence of penetrating injuries (18.0% vs 9.44%). The base XGBoost model demonstrated a greater receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) than TRISS (0.950 vs 0.907) which persisted across sub-populations and secondary endpoints. Furthermore, it exhibited high calibration across all risk levels (R2 = 0.998 vs 0.816). The complete XGBoost model had an exceptional ROC of 0.960. Conclusions We report improved performance of machine learning models over TRISS. Our model may improve stratification of injury severity in clinical and quality improvement settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary Tran
- Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Laboratories (CORELAB), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America,Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Loma Linda University Medical Center, Loma Linda, California, United States of America
| | - Arjun Verma
- Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Laboratories (CORELAB), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - Taylor Wurdeman
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Loma Linda University Medical Center, Loma Linda, California, United States of America
| | - Sigrid Burruss
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Loma Linda University Medical Center, Loma Linda, California, United States of America
| | - Kaushik Mukherjee
- Division of Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Loma Linda University Medical Center, Loma Linda, California, United States of America
| | - Peyman Benharash
- Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Laboratories (CORELAB), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America,* E-mail:
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Cocchieri R, van de Wetering B, van Tuijl S, Mousavi I, Riezebos R, de Mol B. At the Crossroads of Minimally Invasive Mitral Valve Surgery—Benching Single Hospital Experience to a National Registry: A Plea for Risk Management Technology. J Cardiovasc Dev Dis 2022; 9:jcdd9080261. [PMID: 36005425 PMCID: PMC9410306 DOI: 10.3390/jcdd9080261] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2022] [Revised: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 08/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Almost 30 years after the first endoscopic mitral valve repair, Minimally Invasive Mitral Valve Surgery (MIMVS) has become the standard at many institutions due to optimal clinical results and fast recovery. The question that arises is can already good results be further improved by an Institutional Risk Management Performance (IRMP) system in decreasing risks in minimally invasive mitral valve surgery (MIMVS)? As of yet, there are no reports on IRMP and learning systems in the literature. (2) Methods: We described and appraised our five-year single institutional experience with MIMVS in isolated valve surgery included in the Netherlands Heart Registry (NHR) and investigated root causes of high-impact complications. (3) Results: The 120-day and 12-month mortality were 1.1% and 1.9%, respectively, compared to the average of 4.3% and 5.3% reported in the NHR. The regurgitation rate was 1.4% compared to 5.2% nationwide. The few high-impact complications appeared not to be preventable. (4) Discussion: In MIMVS, freedom from major and minor complications is a strong indicator of an effective IRMP but remains concealed from physicians and patients, despite its relevance to shared decision making. Innovation adds to the complexity of MIMVS and challenges surgical competence. An IRMP system may detect and control new risks earlier. (5) Conclusion: An IRMP system contributes to an effective reduction of risks, pain and discomfort; provides relevant input for shared decision making; and warrants the safe introduction of new technology. Crossroads conclusions: investment in machine learning and AI for an effective IRMP system is recommended and the roles for commanding and operating surgeons should be considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riccardo Cocchieri
- Cardiothoracic Surgeon, OLVG Hospital, 1091 AC Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Bertus van de Wetering
- Biomedical Engineer, LifeTec Group BV, 5611 ZS Eindhoven, The Netherlands
- Correspondence: (B.v.d.W.); (B.d.M.)
| | - Sjoerd van Tuijl
- Biomedical Engineer, LifeTec Group BV, 5611 ZS Eindhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Iman Mousavi
- Cardiothoracic Surgery Resident, OLVG Hospital, 1091 AC Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Riezebos
- Cardiologist, OLVG Hospital, 1091 AC Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Bastian de Mol
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Center, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands
- Correspondence: (B.v.d.W.); (B.d.M.)
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van Kooten RT, Bahadoer RR, Ter Buurkes de Vries B, Wouters MWJM, Tollenaar RAEM, Hartgrink HH, Putter H, Dikken JL. Conventional regression analysis and machine learning in prediction of anastomotic leakage and pulmonary complications after esophagogastric cancer surgery. J Surg Oncol 2022; 126:490-501. [PMID: 35503455 PMCID: PMC9544929 DOI: 10.1002/jso.26910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2022] [Revised: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 04/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Background and Objectives With the current advanced data‐driven approach to health care, machine learning is gaining more interest. The current study investigates the added value of machine learning to linear regression in predicting anastomotic leakage and pulmonary complications after upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery. Methods All patients in the Dutch Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Audit undergoing curatively intended esophageal or gastric cancer surgeries from 2011 to 2017 were included. Anastomotic leakage was defined as any clinically or radiologically proven anastomotic leakage. Pulmonary complications entailed: pneumonia, pleural effusion, respiratory failure, pneumothorax, and/or acute respiratory distress syndrome. Different machine learning models were tested. Nomograms were constructed using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. Results Between 2011 and 2017, 4228 patients underwent surgical resection for esophageal cancer, of which 18% developed anastomotic leakage and 30% a pulmonary complication. Of the 2199 patients with surgical resection for gastric cancer, 7% developed anastomotic leakage and 15% a pulmonary complication. In all cases, linear regression had the highest predictive value with the area under the curves varying between 61.9 and 68.0, but the difference with machine learning models did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion Machine learning models can predict postoperative complications in upper gastrointestinal cancer surgery, but they do not outperform the current gold standard, linear regression
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert T van Kooten
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Renu R Bahadoer
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | | | - Michel W J M Wouters
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.,Department of Surgery, Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rob A E M Tollenaar
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Henk H Hartgrink
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Hein Putter
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Johan L Dikken
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Li B, Feridooni T, Cuen-Ojeda C, Kishibe T, de Mestral C, Mamdani M, Al-Omran M. Machine learning in vascular surgery: a systematic review and critical appraisal. NPJ Digit Med 2022; 5:7. [PMID: 35046493 PMCID: PMC8770468 DOI: 10.1038/s41746-021-00552-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2021] [Accepted: 12/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) is a rapidly advancing field with increasing utility in health care. We conducted a systematic review and critical appraisal of ML applications in vascular surgery. MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched from inception to March 1, 2021. Study screening, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers, with a third author resolving discrepancies. All original studies reporting ML applications in vascular surgery were included. Publication trends, disease conditions, methodologies, and outcomes were summarized. Critical appraisal was conducted using the PROBAST risk-of-bias and TRIPOD reporting adherence tools. We included 212 studies from a pool of 2235 unique articles. ML techniques were used for diagnosis, prognosis, and image segmentation in carotid stenosis, aortic aneurysm/dissection, peripheral artery disease, diabetic foot ulcer, venous disease, and renal artery stenosis. The number of publications on ML in vascular surgery increased from 1 (1991-1996) to 118 (2016-2021). Most studies were retrospective and single center, with no randomized controlled trials. The median area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.88 (range 0.61-1.00), with 79.5% [62/78] studies reporting AUROC ≥ 0.80. Out of 22 studies comparing ML techniques to existing prediction tools, clinicians, or traditional regression models, 20 performed better and 2 performed similarly. Overall, 94.8% (201/212) studies had high risk-of-bias and adherence to reporting standards was poor with a rate of 41.4%. Despite improvements over time, study quality and reporting remain inadequate. Future studies should consider standardized tools such as PROBAST and TRIPOD to improve study quality and clinical applicability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Li
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, 149 College St, Toronto, ON, M5T 1P5, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A8, Canada
| | - Tiam Feridooni
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, 149 College St, Toronto, ON, M5T 1P5, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Cesar Cuen-Ojeda
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, 149 College St, Toronto, ON, M5T 1P5, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Teruko Kishibe
- Health Sciences Library, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 209 Victoria St, Toronto, ON, M5B 1T8, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 209 Victoria St, Toronto, ON, M5B 1T8, Canada
| | - Charles de Mestral
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, 149 College St, Toronto, ON, M5T 1P5, Canada
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 209 Victoria St, Toronto, ON, M5B 1T8, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College St, Toronto, ON, M5T 3M7, Canada
| | - Muhammad Mamdani
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A8, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 209 Victoria St, Toronto, ON, M5B 1T8, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College St, Toronto, ON, M5T 3M7, Canada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, 144 College St, Toronto, ON, M5S 3M2, Canada
| | - Mohammed Al-Omran
- Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, 149 College St, Toronto, ON, M5T 1P5, Canada.
- Division of Vascular Surgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 1W8, Canada.
- Temerty Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Education in Medicine (T-CAIREM), University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A8, Canada.
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, 209 Victoria St, Toronto, ON, M5B 1T8, Canada.
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A8, Canada.
- Department of Surgery, King Saud University, ZIP 4545, Riyadh, 11451, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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Pettit RW, Fullem R, Cheng C, Amos CI. Artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning for clinical outcome prediction. Emerg Top Life Sci 2021; 5:ETLS20210246. [PMID: 34927670 PMCID: PMC8786279 DOI: 10.1042/etls20210246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2021] [Revised: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
AI is a broad concept, grouping initiatives that use a computer to perform tasks that would usually require a human to complete. AI methods are well suited to predict clinical outcomes. In practice, AI methods can be thought of as functions that learn the outcomes accompanying standardized input data to produce accurate outcome predictions when trialed with new data. Current methods for cleaning, creating, accessing, extracting, augmenting, and representing data for training AI clinical prediction models are well defined. The use of AI to predict clinical outcomes is a dynamic and rapidly evolving arena, with new methods and applications emerging. Extraction or accession of electronic health care records and combining these with patient genetic data is an area of present attention, with tremendous potential for future growth. Machine learning approaches, including decision tree methods of Random Forest and XGBoost, and deep learning techniques including deep multi-layer and recurrent neural networks, afford unique capabilities to accurately create predictions from high dimensional, multimodal data. Furthermore, AI methods are increasing our ability to accurately predict clinical outcomes that previously were difficult to model, including time-dependent and multi-class outcomes. Barriers to robust AI-based clinical outcome model deployment include changing AI product development interfaces, the specificity of regulation requirements, and limitations in ensuring model interpretability, generalizability, and adaptability over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rowland W. Pettit
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, U.S.A
| | - Robert Fullem
- Department of Molecular and Human Genetics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, U.S.A
| | - Chao Cheng
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, U.S.A
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, U.S.A
| | - Christopher I. Amos
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, U.S.A
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, U.S.A
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, U.S.A
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