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la Roi-Teeuw HM, van Smeden M, Geersing GJ, Klungel OH, Rutten FH, Souverein PC, van Doorn S. Incidence and individual risk prediction of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular disease in the general population: a multivariable prediction model development and validation study. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL OPEN 2023; 3:oead101. [PMID: 38046622 PMCID: PMC10690016 DOI: 10.1093/ehjopen/oead101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Revised: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 12/05/2023]
Abstract
Aims Previous studies suggest relatively increased cardiovascular risk after COVID-19 infection. This study assessed incidence and explored individual risk and timing of cardiovascular disease occurring post-COVID-19 in a large primary care database. Methods and results Data were extracted from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Incidence rates within 180 days post-infection were estimated for arterial or venous events, inflammatory heart disease, and new-onset atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Next, multivariable logistic regression models were developed on 220 751 adults with COVID-19 infection before 1 December 2020 using age, sex and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. All models were externally validated in (i) 138 034 vaccinated and (ii) 503 404 unvaccinated adults with a first COVID-19 infection after 1 December 2020. Discriminative performance and calibration were evaluated with internal and external validation. Increased incidence rates were observed up to 60 days after COVID-19 infection for venous and arterial cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation, but not for inflammatory heart disease or heart failure, with the highest rate for venous events (13 per 1000 person-years). The best prediction models had c-statistics of 0.90 or higher. However, <5% of adults had a predicted 180-day outcome-specific risk larger than 1%. These rare outcomes complicated calibration. Conclusion Risks of arterial and venous cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation are increased within the first 60 days after COVID-19 infection in the general population. Models' c-statistics suggest high discrimination, but because of the very low absolute risks, they are insufficient to inform individual risk management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah M la Roi-Teeuw
- Department of General Practice and Nursing Science, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Universiteitsweg 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Economics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Geert-Jan Geersing
- Department of General Practice and Nursing Science, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Universiteitsweg 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Olaf H Klungel
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Frans H Rutten
- Department of General Practice and Nursing Science, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Universiteitsweg 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Patrick C Souverein
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Sander van Doorn
- Department of General Practice and Nursing Science, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Universiteitsweg 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Janes F, Sozio E, Gigli GL, Ripoli A, Sbrana F, Kuris F, Nesi L, Semenzin T, Bertolino G, Deana C, Bagatto D, Ciardi C, Fabris M, Merlino G, Bax F, Nilo A, Pez S, Valente M, Tascini C. Ischemic strokes in COVID-19: risk factors, obesity paradox, and distinction between trigger and causal association. Front Neurol 2023; 14:1222009. [PMID: 37592943 PMCID: PMC10428626 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2023.1222009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Background and purpose Stroke has been described as a COVID-19 complication. However, its occurrence rate, risk factors, and causal relationships are still not well established. Methods We describe the characteristics of confirmed COVID-19-related strokes among all cases of COVID-19 hospitalized in our health network, from November 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021. Risk factor analysis has been conducted for ischemic stroke (IS), which represents 92% of all confirmed cases of Covid-19-related strokes, and a "causal attribution to infection" classification is provided. Results In all, 62/4105 hospitalized COVID-19 patients had an acute stroke (1.51%). Severe COVID-19 (OR 2.27-CI 1.06-4.77; p = 0.032), atrial fibrillation (OR 3.65-CI 1.63-7.98; p = 0.001), and ischemic heart disease (OR 4.590-CI 1.714-12.137; p = 0.002) proved to be independent risk factors for IS, while obesity was a protective factor (OR 0.90-CI 0.82-0.97; p = 0.012). COVID-19 had a causal role in 32.1% of IS cases, was a relevant cofactor in 28.6% of cases of IS, and was a possible trigger in 39.3% of events. Conclusion Our stroke occurrence rate is consistent with other population-based reports (range 0.34-2.7%). Prespecified peculiar clinical and radiological features allow the distinction between "IS caused by COVID-19" and "IS triggered by COVID-19." Clinical history of vascular diseases and risk factors is crucial in determining the risk of IS in patients with COVID-19. However, the protective effect of a BMI > 30 kg/m2 seems to suggest an obesity paradox.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Janes
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
- Department of Medical Area (DAME), University of Udine (UNIUD), Udine, Italy
| | - Emanuela Sozio
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Gian Luigi Gigli
- Department of Medical Area (DAME), University of Udine (UNIUD), Udine, Italy
| | - Andrea Ripoli
- Cardiology OU, Cardiothoracic Department, G. Monasterio Foundation, Pisa, Italy
| | - Francesco Sbrana
- Cardiology OU, Cardiothoracic Department, G. Monasterio Foundation, Pisa, Italy
| | - Fedra Kuris
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
- Department of Medical Area (DAME), University of Udine (UNIUD), Udine, Italy
| | - Lorenzo Nesi
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
- Department of Medical Area (DAME), University of Udine (UNIUD), Udine, Italy
| | - Tosca Semenzin
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Giacomo Bertolino
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Cristian Deana
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Daniele Bagatto
- Institute of Neuroradiology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Chiara Ciardi
- Institute of Neuroradiology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Martina Fabris
- Institute of Clinical Pathology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Giovanni Merlino
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Francesco Bax
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Annacarmen Nilo
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
| | - Sara Pez
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
- Department of Medical Area (DAME), University of Udine (UNIUD), Udine, Italy
| | - Mariarosaria Valente
- Clinic of Neurology, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
- Department of Medical Area (DAME), University of Udine (UNIUD), Udine, Italy
| | - Carlo Tascini
- Department of Medical Area (DAME), University of Udine (UNIUD), Udine, Italy
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale (ASUFC), Udine, Italy
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