Predicting the loss of phylogenetic diversity under non-stationary diversification models

The expected loss of feature diversity (versus phylogenetic diversity) following rapid extinction at the present

The current rapid extinction of species leads not only to their loss but also the disappearance of the unique features they harbour, which have evolved along the branches of the underlying evolutionary tree. One proxy for estimating the feature diversity (FD) of a set S of species at the tips of a tree is 'phylogenetic diversity' (PD): the sum of the branch lengths of the subtree connecting the species in S. For a phylogenetic tree that evolves under a standard birth-death process, and which is then subject to a sudden extinction event at the present (the simple 'field of bullets' model with a survival probability of s per species) the proportion of the original PD that is retained after extinction at the present is known to converge quickly to a particular concave function [Formula: see text] as t grows. To investigate how the loss of FD mirrors the loss of PD for a birth-death tree, we model FD by assuming that distinct discrete features arise randomly and independently along the branches of the tree at rate r and are lost at a constant rate [Formula: see text]. We derive an exact mathematical expression for the ratio [Formula: see text] of the two expected feature diversities (prior to and following an extinction event at the present) as t becomes large. We find that although [Formula: see text] has a similar behaviour to [Formula: see text] (and coincides with it for [Formula: see text]), when [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] is described by a function that is different from [Formula: see text]. We also derive an exact expression for the expected number of features that are present in precisely one extant species. Our paper begins by establishing some generic properties of FD in a more general (non-phylogenetic) setting and applies this to fixed trees, before considering the setting of random (birth-death) trees.

Anthropogenic threats to evolutionary heritage of angiosperms in the Netherlands through an increase in high-competition environments

Present biodiversity comprises the evolutionary heritage of Earth's epochs. Lineages from particular epochs are often found in particular habitats, but whether current habitat decline threatens the heritage from particular epochs is unknown. We hypothesized that within a given region, humans threaten specifically habitats that harbor lineages from a particular geological epoch. We expect so because humans threaten environments that dominated and lineages that diversified during these epochs. We devised a new approach to quantify, per habitat type, diversification of lineages from different epochs. For Netherlands, one of the floristically and ecologically best-studied regions, we quantified the decline of habitat types and species in the past century. We defined habitat types based on vegetation classification and used existing ranking of decline of vegetation classes and species. Currently, most declining habitat types and the group of red-listed species are characterized by increased diversification of lineages dating back to Paleogene, specifically to Paleocene-Eocene and Oligocene. Among vulnerable habitat types with large representation of lineages from these epochs were sublittoral and eulittoral zones of temperate seas and 2 types of nutrient-poor, open habitats. These losses of evolutionary heritage would go unnoticed with classical measures of evolutionary diversity. Loss of heritage from Paleocene-Eocene became unrelated to decline once low competition, shade tolerance, and low proportion of non-Apiaceae were accounted for, suggesting that these variables explain the loss of heritage from Paleocene-Eocene. Losses of heritage from Oligocene were partly explained by decline of habitat types occupied by weak competitors and shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest a so-far unappreciated human threat to evolutionary heritage: habitat decline threatens descendants from particular epochs. If the trends persist into the future uncontrolled, there may be no habitats within the region for many descendants of evolutionary ancient epochs, such as Paleogene.

Evolutionary isolation and phylogenetic diversity loss under random extinction events

The extinction of species at the present leads to the loss of 'phylogenetic diversity' (PD) from the evolutionary tree in which these species lie. Prior to extinction, the total PD present can be divided up among the species in various ways using measures of evolutionary isolation (such as 'fair proportion' and 'equal splits'). However, the loss of PD when certain combinations of species become extinct can be either larger or smaller than the cumulative loss of the isolation values associated with the extinct species. In this paper, we show that for trees generated under neutral evolutionary models, the loss of PD under a null model of random extinction at the present can be predicted from the loss of the cumulative isolation values, by applying a non-linear transformation that is independent of the tree. Moreover, the error in the prediction provably converges to zero as the size of the tree grows, with simulations showing good agreement even for moderate sized trees (n=64).

Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions

BACKGROUND

Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups.

RESULTS

Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario.

CONCLUSION

Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

Phylogenetics and the human microbiome

The human microbiome is the ensemble of genes in the microbes that live inside and on the surface of humans. Because microbial sequencing information is now much easier to come by than phenotypic information, there has been an explosion of sequencing and genetic analysis of microbiome samples. Much of the analytical work for these sequences involves phylogenetics, at least indirectly, but methodology has developed in a somewhat different direction than for other applications of phylogenetics. In this article, I review the field and its methods from the perspective of a phylogeneticist, as well as describing current challenges for phylogenetics coming from this type of work.