Country- and age-specific optimal allocation of dengue vaccines

A data-driven spatially-specific vaccine allocation framework for COVID-19

Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been introduced, their allocation is a challenging problem. We propose a data-driven, spatially-specific vaccine allocation framework that aims to minimize the number of COVID-19-related deaths or infections. The framework combines a regional risk-level classification model solved by a self-organizing map neural network, a spatially-specific disease progression model, and a vaccine allocation model that considers vaccine production capacity. We use data obtained from Wuhan and 35 other cities in China from January 26 to February 11, 2020, to avoid the effects of intervention. Our results suggest that, in region-wise distribution of vaccines, they should be allocated first to the source region of the outbreak and then to the other regions in order of decreasing risk whether the outcome measure is the number of deaths or infections. This spatially-specific vaccine allocation policy significantly outperforms some current allocation policies.

Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination

Background

The development of a safe and effective vaccine is considered crucial for dengue transmission control since vetor control has been failed; some potential candidates are currently in test, and in this context theoretical studies are necessary to evaluate vaccination strategies such as the age groups that should be vaccinated, the percentage of the population at risk, and the target geographic regions to make dengue control feasible and optimal.

Methods

A partial differential model is used to mimics dengue transmission in human population in order to estimate the optimal vaccination age, using data collected from dengue reported cases in ten cities of Brazil from 2001 to 2014. For this purpose, the basic reproduction number of the disease was minimized assuming a single-dose vaccination strategy, equal vaccine efficacy for all circulating serotypes, and no vaccine failure. Numerical methods were used to assess the optimal vaccination age and its confidence age range.

Results

The results reveal complex spatial-temporal patterns associated to the disease transmission, highlighting the heterogeneity in defining the target population for dengue vaccination. However, the values obtained for the optimal age of vaccination, as targeting individuals under 13 years old, are compatible with the ones reported in similar studies in Brazil. The results also show that the optimal age for vaccination in general does not match with the age of the highest number of cases.

Conclusions

The variation of the optimal age for vaccination across the country reflects heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities, and can be used to define the target population and cities to optimize vaccination strategies in a context of high cost and low quantity of available vaccine.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dengue Vaccination Programs in Brazil

The first approved dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV, a chimeric, live-attenuated, tetravalent dengue virus vaccine, was recently licensed in 13 countries, including Brazil. In light of recent vaccine approval, we modeled the cost-effectiveness of potential vaccination policies mathematically based on data from recent vaccine efficacy trials that indicated that vaccine efficacy was lower in seronegative individuals than in seropositive individuals. In our analysis, we investigated several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination, with various vaccine coverage levels and those with and without large catch-up campaigns. As it is unclear whether the vaccine protects against infection or just against disease, our model incorporated both direct and indirect effects of vaccination. We found that in the presence of vaccine-induced indirect protection, the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination decreased with increasing vaccine coverage levels because the marginal returns of herd immunity decreases with vaccine coverage. All routine dengue vaccination programs that we considered were cost-effective, reducing dengue incidence significantly. Specifically, a routine dengue vaccination of 9-year-olds would be cost-effective when the cost of vaccination per individual is less than $262. Furthermore, the combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns resulted in a greater reduction of dengue burden (by up to 93%) than routine vaccination alone, making it a cost-effective intervention as long as the cost per course of vaccination is $255 or less. Our results show that dengue vaccination would be cost-effective in Brazil even with a relatively low vaccine efficacy in seronegative individuals.

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model

Background

The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9^th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential.

Methods

We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively.

Three Decades of Dengue Surveillance in Five Highly Endemic South East Asian Countries

We described and quantified epidemiologic trends in dengue disease burden in 5 Asian countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam) and identified and estimated outbreaks impact over the last 3 decades. Dengue surveillance data from 1980 to 2010 were retrieved from DengueNet and from World Health Organization sources. Trends in incidence, mortality, and case fatality rate (CFR) were systematically analyzed using annual average percent change (AAPC), and the contribution of epidemic years identified over the observation period was quantified. Over the 30-year period, incidence increased in all countries (AAPC 1980-2010: 6.7% in Thailand, 10.4% in Vietnam, 12.0% in Indonesia, 18.1% in Malaysia, 24.4% in Philippines). Mortality also increased in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines (AAPC: 6.8%, 7.0%, and 29.2%, respectively), but slightly decreased in Thailand and Vietnam (AAPC: −1.3% and −2.5%), and CFR decreased in all countries (AAPC: −4.2% to −8.3%). Epidemic years, despite representing less than a third of the observation period, contributed from 1 to 3 times more cases versus nonepidemic years. Implementation of more sensitive surveillance methods over the study period may have contributed to a reporting or ascertainment bias in some countries. Nonetheless, these data support the urgent need for novel, integrated, or otherwise effective dengue prevention and control tools and approaches.

Dengue Dynamics and Vaccine Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in the Philippines

Dengue is one of the most problematic vector-borne diseases in the Philippines, with an estimated 842,867 cases resulting in medical costs of $345 million U.S. dollars annually. In December 2015, the first dengue vaccine, known as chimeric yellow fever virus-dengue virus tetravalent dengue vaccine, was approved for use in the Philippines and is given to children 9 years of age. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in the Philippines, we developed an age-structured model of dengue transmission and vaccination. Using our model, we compared two vaccination scenarios entailing routine vaccination programs both with and without catch-up vaccination. Our results indicate that the higher the cost of vaccination, the less cost-effective the dengue vaccination program. With the current dengue vaccination program that vaccinates children 9 years of age, dengue vaccination is cost-effective for vaccination costs up to $70 from a health-care perspective and up to $75 from a societal perspective. Under a favorable scenario consisting of 1 year of catch-up vaccinations that target children 9-15 years of age, followed by regular vaccination of 9-year-old children, vaccination is cost-effective at costs up to $72 from a health-care perspective and up to $78 from a societal perspective. In general, dengue vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever /dengue shock syndrome. Our results demonstrate that even at relatively low vaccine efficacies, age-targeted vaccination may still be cost-effective provided the vaccination cost is sufficiently low.

Potential impact of dengue vaccination: Insights from two large-scale phase III trials with a tetravalent dengue vaccine

BACKGROUND

A tetravalent dengue vaccine demonstrated its protective efficacy in two phase III efficacy studies. Results from these studies were used to derive vaccination impact in the five Asian (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) and the five Latin American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico and Puerto Rico) participating in these trials.

METHODS

Vaccination impact was investigated with an age-structured, host-vector, serotype-specific compartmental model. Parameters related to vaccine efficacy and levels of dengue transmission were estimated using data collected during the phase III efficacy studies. Several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination at different ages with and without large catch-up campaigns, were investigated.

RESULTS

All vaccination programs explored translated into significant reductions in dengue cases at the population level over the first 10years following vaccine introduction and beyond. The most efficient age for vaccination varied according to transmission intensity and 9years was close to the most efficient age across all settings. The combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns was found to enable a rapid reduction of dengue burden after vaccine introduction.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests that dengue vaccination can significantly reduce the public health impact of dengue in countries where the disease is endemic.

Dengue serotype immune-interactions and their consequences for vaccine impact predictions

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The firstever dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia^®, has recently been licensed for use in several countries.

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Mathematical models are valuable tools for assessing vaccination impact on dengue burden.

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Model assumptions regarding dengue serotype immune interactions are inconsistent.

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Our results demonstrate how model assumptions critically affect vaccine impact predictions.

Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) has recently completed Phase III clinical efficacy trials in South East Asia and Latin America and has been licensed for use in several countries. The trial results showed moderate-to-high efficacies in protection against clinical symptoms and hospitalisation but with so far unknown effects on transmission and infections per se. Model-based predictions about the vaccine's short- or long-term impact on the burden of dengue are therefore subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, different immune interactions between dengue's serotypes have frequently been evoked by modelling studies to underlie dengue's oscillatory dynamics in disease incidence and serotype prevalence. Here we show how model assumptions regarding immune interactions in the form of antibody-dependent enhancement, temporary cross-immunity and the number of infections required to develop full immunity can significantly affect the predicted outcome of a dengue vaccination campaign. Our results thus re-emphasise the important gap in our current knowledge concerning the effects of previous exposure on subsequent dengue infections and further suggest that intervention impact studies should be critically evaluated by their underlying assumptions about serotype immune-interactions.

A role for vector control in dengue vaccine programs

Development and deployment of a successful dengue virus (DENV) vaccine has confounded research and pharmaceutical entities owing to the complex nature of DENV immunity and concerns over exacerbating the risk of DENV hemorrhagic fever (DHF) as a consequence of vaccination. Thus, consensus is growing that a combination of mitigation strategies will be needed for DENV to be successfully controlled, likely involving some form of vector control to enhance a vaccine program. We present here a deterministic compartmental model to illustrate that vector control may enhance vaccination campaigns with imperfect coverage and efficacy. Though we recognize the costs and challenges associated with continuous control programs, simultaneous application of vector control methods coincident with vaccine roll out can have a positive effect by further reducing the number of human cases. The success of such an integrative strategy is predicated on closing gaps in our understanding of the DENV transmission cycle in hyperedemic locations.

Dengue Vaccines: A Perspective from the Point of View of Intellectual Property

Dengue is a serious infectious disease and a growing public health problem in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. To control this neglected tropical disease (NTD), vaccines are likely to be the most cost-effective solution. This study analyzed dengue vaccines from both a historical and longitudinal perspective by using patent data, evaluating the geographic and time coverage of innovations, the primary patent holders, the network of cooperation and partnership for vaccine research and development (R & D), the flow of knowledge and the technological domain involved. This study can be seen as an example of the use of patent information to inform policy discussions, strategic research planning, and technology transfer. The results show that 93% of patents were granted since 2000, the majority belonging to the United States and Europe, although the share of patents from developing countries has increased. Unlike another NTDs, there is great participation of private companies in R & D of dengue vaccines and partnerships and collaboration between public and private companies. Finally, in this study, the main holders showed high knowledge absorption and generated capabilities. Therefore, this issue suggests that to overcome the difficulty of translational R & D it is necessary to stimulate the generation of knowledge and relevant scientific research, to enable the productive sector to have the capacity to absorb knowledge, to turn it into innovation, and to articulate partnerships and collaboration.

Seroprevalence of neutralizing antibodies against dengue virus in two localities in the state of Morelos, Mexico

Humoral immune response against dengue virus (DENV) is an important component in dengue-endemic transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional nested cohort study to determine the seroprevalence and frequency of neutralizing antibodies against DENV serotypes in two endemic localities in the state of Morelos, Mexico. The cohort participants (N = 1,196) were screened to determine previous exposure to DENV. Overall seroprevalence was 76.6% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 73.6-79.2), and prevalence of neutralizing antibodies in the 5- to 9-year-old group was 82.5% (95% CI = 67.2-92.7), 45% (95% CI = 29.3-61.5), and 65% (95% CI = 48.3-79.4) for DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-3, respectively. For participants older than 10 years, the observed seroprevalence was above 60% for each serotype, except DENV-4 in the 10- to 25-year-old group (42.9%); 81% of humoral responses were multitypic. The outcomes of our study contribute to understanding the immune component of dengue transmission and provide focal information for the evaluation of vaccine candidates under development.