1
|
Davis EL, Hollingsworth TD, Keeling MJ. An analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011440. [PMID: 38484022 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011440] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 02/09/2024] [Indexed: 03/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Vector control is a vital tool utilised by malaria control and elimination programmes worldwide, and as such it is important that we can accurately quantify the expected public health impact of these methods. There are very few previous models that consider vector-control-induced changes in the age-structure of the vector population and the resulting impact on transmission. We analytically derive the steady-state solution of a novel age-structured deterministic compartmental model describing the mosquito feeding cycle, with mosquito age represented discretely by parity-the number of cycles (or successful bloodmeals) completed. Our key model output comprises an explicit, analytically tractable solution that can be used to directly quantify key transmission statistics, such as the effective reproductive ratio under control, Rc, and investigate the age-structured impact of vector control. Application of this model reinforces current knowledge that adult-acting interventions, such as indoor residual spraying of insecticides (IRS) or long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), can be highly effective at reducing transmission, due to the dual effects of repelling and killing mosquitoes. We also demonstrate how larval measures can be implemented in addition to adult-acting measures to reduce Rc and mitigate the impact of waning insecticidal efficacy, as well as how mid-ranges of LLIN coverage are likely to experience the largest effect of reduced net integrity on transmission. We conclude that whilst well-maintained adult-acting vector control measures are substantially more effective than larval-based interventions, incorporating larval control in existing LLIN or IRS programmes could substantially reduce transmission and help mitigate any waning effects of adult-acting measures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Emma L Davis
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | | | - Matt J Keeling
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Using the Hurst Exponent and Entropy Measures to Predict Effective Transmissibility in Empirical Series of Malaria Incidence. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/app12010496] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
We analyze the empirical series of malaria incidence, using the concepts of autocorrelation, Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy with the aim of uncovering hidden variables in those series. From the simulations of an agent model for malaria spreading, we first derive models of the malaria incidence, the Hurst exponent and the entropy as functions of gametocytemia, measuring the infectious power of a mosquito to a human host. Second, upon estimating the values of three observables—incidence, Hurst exponent and entropy—from the data set of different malaria empirical series we predict a value of the gametocytemia for each observable. Finally, we show that the independent predictions show considerable consistency with only a few exceptions which are discussed in further detail.
Collapse
|
3
|
Quaresima V, Agbenyega T, Oppong B, Awunyo JADA, Adu Adomah P, Enty E, Donato F, Castelli F. Are Malaria Risk Factors Based on Gender? A Mixed-Methods Survey in an Urban Setting in Ghana. Trop Med Infect Dis 2021; 6:161. [PMID: 34564545 PMCID: PMC8482108 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed6030161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2021] [Revised: 08/27/2021] [Accepted: 08/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Malaria still represents one of the most debilitating and deadly diseases in the world. It has been suggested that malaria has different impacts on women and men due to both social and biological factors. A gender perspective is therefore important to understand how to eliminate malaria. This study aimed to investigate malaria from a gender perspective in a non-for-profit private health facility, HopeXchange Medical Centre, based in Kumasi (Ghana). A sequential mixed-methods design, comprising quantitative and qualitative methods, was used. This study found low ownership (40%) and use (19%) of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Most malaria cases were women (62%), who were less educated and had more external risk factors associated with infection. Our study reported a trend of preferring malaria self-medication at home, which was practiced mostly by men (43%). Our data suggest that women are more likely to be exposed to malaria infections than men, especially due to their prolonged exposure to mosquito bites during the most dangerous hours. Our study highlighted the need for future malaria control policies to be more focused on social and behavioral aspects and from a gender perspective.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Virginia Quaresima
- University Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, University of Brescia and ASST Spedali Civili of Brescia, 25123 Brescia, Italy;
- Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and Mathematics (DICATAM), University of Brescia, 25123 Brescia, Italy
- Centro di Ricerca Emato-Oncologica AIL (CREA), Diagnostic Department, ASST Spedali Civili of Brescia, 25123 Brescia, Italy
| | - Tsiri Agbenyega
- Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana;
- HopeXchange Medical Centre, Kumasi, Ghana; (B.O.); (J.A.D.A.A.); (P.A.A.); (E.E.)
| | - Bismark Oppong
- HopeXchange Medical Centre, Kumasi, Ghana; (B.O.); (J.A.D.A.A.); (P.A.A.); (E.E.)
| | | | - Priscilla Adu Adomah
- HopeXchange Medical Centre, Kumasi, Ghana; (B.O.); (J.A.D.A.A.); (P.A.A.); (E.E.)
| | - Eunice Enty
- HopeXchange Medical Centre, Kumasi, Ghana; (B.O.); (J.A.D.A.A.); (P.A.A.); (E.E.)
| | - Francesco Donato
- University Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Brescia, 25123 Brescia, Italy;
| | - Francesco Castelli
- University Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, University of Brescia and ASST Spedali Civili of Brescia, 25123 Brescia, Italy;
- UNESCO Chair ‘Training and Empowering Human Resources for Health Development in Resource-Limited Countries’, University of Brescia, 25123 Brescia, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Ferrão JL, Earland D, Novela A, Mendes R, Tungadza A, Searle KM. Malaria Temporal Variation and Modelling Using Time-Series in Sussundenga District, Mozambique. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:5692. [PMID: 34073319 PMCID: PMC8198511 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18115692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2021] [Revised: 05/06/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Malaria is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Mozambique, which has the fifth highest prevalence in the world. Sussundenga District in Manica Province has documented high P. falciparum incidence at the local rural health center (RHC). This study's objective was to analyze the P. falciparum temporal variation and model its pattern in Sussundenga District, Mozambique. Data from weekly epidemiological bulletins (BES) was collected from 2015 to 2019 and a time-series analysis was applied. For temporal modeling, a Box-Jenkins method was used with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Over the study period, 372,498 cases of P. falciparum were recorded in Sussundenga. There were weekly and yearly variations in incidence overall (p < 0.001). Children under five years had decreased malaria tendency, while patients over five years had an increased tendency. The ARIMA (2,2,1) (1,1,1) 52 model presented the least Root Mean Square being the most appropriate for forecasting. The goodness of fit was 68.15% for malaria patients less than five years old and 73.2% for malaria patients over five years old. The findings indicate that cases are decreasing among individuals less than five years and are increasing slightly in those older than five years. The P. falciparum case occurrence has a weekly temporal pattern peaking during the wet season. Based on the spatial and temporal distribution using ARIMA modelling, more efficient strategies that target this seasonality can be implemented to reduce the overall malaria burden in both Sussundenga District and regionally.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- João L. Ferrão
- Instiuto Superior de Ciências de Educação, Beira 2102, Mozambique
| | - Dominique Earland
- School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA; (D.E.); (K.M.S.)
| | - Anísio Novela
- Direcção Distrital de Saúde de Sussundenga, Sussundenga 2207, Mozambique;
| | - Roberto Mendes
- Centro de Informação Geográfica-Faculdade de Economia da UCM, Beira 2102, Mozambique;
| | | | - Kelly M. Searle
- School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA; (D.E.); (K.M.S.)
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
A Model for Assessing the Quantitative Effects of Heterogeneous Affinity in Malaria Transmission along with Ivermectin Mass Administration. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/app10238696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Using an agent-based model of malaria, we present numerical evidence that in communities of individuals having an affinity varying within a broad range of values, disease transmission may increase up to 300%. Moreover, our findings provide new insight into how to combine different strategies for the prevention of malaria transmission. In particular, we uncover a relationship between the level of heterogeneity and the level of conventional and unconventional anti-malarial drug administration (ivermectin and gametocidal agents), which, when taken together, will define a control parameter, tuning between disease persistence and elimination. Finally, we also provide evidence that the entomological inoculation rate, as well as the product between parasite and sporozoite rates are both good indicators of malaria incidence in the presence of heterogeneity in disease transmission and may configure a possible improvement in that setting, upon classical standard measures such as the basic reproductive number.
Collapse
|
6
|
Brugnago EL, da Silva RM, Manchein C, Beims MW. How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time? CHAOS, SOLITONS, AND FRACTALS 2020; 140:110164. [PMID: 32834648 PMCID: PMC7420611 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2020] [Revised: 07/20/2020] [Accepted: 07/26/2020] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA). After an initial period with a low incidence of newly infected people, a power-law growth of the number of confirmed cases is observed. For each country, a distinct growth exponent is obtained. For Belgium, UK, and USA, countries with a large number of infected people, after the power-law growth, a distinct behavior is obtained when approaching saturation. Brazil is still in the power-law regime. Such updates of the data and projections corroborate recent results regarding the power-law growth of the virus and their strong Distance Correlation between some countries around the world. Furthermore, we show that act in time is one of the most relevant non-pharmacological weapons that the health organizations have in the battle against the COVID-19, infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. We study how changing the social distance and the number of daily tests to identify infected asymptomatic individuals can interfere in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 when applied in three distinct days, namely April 16th (early), April 30th (current), and May 14th (late). Results show that containment actions are necessary to flatten the curves and should be applied as soon as possible.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo L Brugnago
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba 81531-980, PR, Brazil
| | - Rafael M da Silva
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba 81531-980, PR, Brazil
| | - Cesar Manchein
- Departamento de Física, Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, Joinville 89219-710, SC, Brazil
| | - Marcus W Beims
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba 81531-980, PR, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|