Does exposure to new transport infrastructure result in modal shifts? Patterns of change in commute mode choices in a four-year quasi-experimental cohort study

Assessment of Spatiotemporal Peak Shift of Intra-Urban Transportation Taking a Case in Bangkok, Thailand

Reducing congestion has been one of the critical targets of transportation policies, particularly in cities in developing countries suffering severe and chronic traffic congestions. Several traditional measures have been in place but seem not very successful. This paper applies the agent-based transportation model MATSim for a transportation analysis in Bangkok to assess the impact of spatiotemporal transportation demand management measures. We collect required data for the simulation from various data sources and apply maximum likelihood estimation with the limited data available. We investigate two demand management scenarios, peak time shift, and decentralization. As a result, we found that these spatiotemporal peak shift measures are effective for road transport to alleviate congestion and reduce travel time. However, the effect of those measures on public transport is not uniform but depends on the users’ circumstances. On average, the simulated results indicate that those measures increase the average travel time and distance. These results suggest that demand management policies require considerations of more detailed conditions to improve usability. The study also confirms that microsimulation can be a tool for transport demand management assessment in developing countries.

Metro and elderly health in Hong Kong: protocol for a natural experiment study in a high-density city

INTRODUCTION

Public transport accessible to older people may offer a transformative solution to achieving healthy ageing. However, the evidence to support such transport infrastructure modifications is unclear. Previous studies on public transport use and elderly health were mostly observational studies using cross-sectional data. Few studies have examined the before-and-after effects of a new metro, for example, to see if it leads to improved elderly health.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We use a new metro line in Hong Kong as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the metro-led public transport intervention on elderly health. In Hong Kong, more than 90% of daily travels are made by public transport. The public transport modifications consist of the new metro line with eight stations and changes in the walking environment and bus services around the stations. We will look at the before-and-after differences in public transport use and health outcomes between elderly participants living in treatment neighbourhoods (400 m walking buffered areas of the new metro stations) and in control groups (living in comparable areas but unaffected by the new metro). Questionnaire-based baseline data were collected in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic, while some qualitative interviews are ongoing. Amid the pandemic, we conducted a quick telephone-based survey of COVID-19's potential impact on public transport use behaviours of our elderly cohort in September 2020. Note there is no lockdown in Hong Kong until the writing of the paper (January 2021). After the new metro opens, we will conduct a follow-up survey, tentatively in late 2022. We aim to investigate if the new metro and the associated changes in the built environment have any effects on public transport use behaviours, physical activity and wider health outcomes among the elderly (eg, social inclusion, quality of life, subjective well-being).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Human Research Ethics Committee of the University of Hong Kong reviewed and approved the study procedures and materials (reference number: EA1710040). Results will be communicated through scientific papers and research reports.

New metro system and active travel: A natural experiment

BACKGROUND

We used the first metro system in a developing city as a natural experiment to investigate the causal inference in the new metro's impact on modal shift and active travel.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The treatment group was formed by residents from neighbourhoods located within the 800-m walking distance to new metro stations. The first control group was formed by residents lived 1.6 km away from and outside of walking distance to the nearest station, and the second was 5 km away and outside of cycling distance. The groups were determined by local transit-oriented planning practice and empirical studies on active travel. Of the 5627 participants who had finished a baseline travel behaviour survey before new metro launched, 1770 returned and completed the follow-up survey a year after the metro's operation, which consists of 833 cohort participants in the treatment group and 937 in the two types of control groups. We used a difference-in-difference method to make before and after comparisons of travel behaviour changes between treatment and control groups.

RESULTS

Our longitudinal data analyses revealed diverse travel behaviour changes. In general, people who used to take bus have adopted metro. The average metro usage was 30.9 (28.8-33.3) minutes daily for work trips and 16.6 (14.9-18.7) minutes daily for non-work trips. Walking time decreased 19.7 minutes at most (p < 0.001), and cycling decreased 22.1 minutes daily (p < 0.001). Car and e-bike usages remained largely unchanged before and after new metro, without difference between treatment and control groups.

CONCLUSION

The natural experiment study provided the first empirical evidence in a developing city context on causal inference in new metro's impact on active travel. A new metro does not necessarily promote active travel increase or car use reduction, calling for caution in making general assumptions about the effects of urban rail transit investments. We suggest local urban and transport planning knowledge could be useful in designing and explaining the complex natural experiments in transport and health.

Trialing a Road Lane to Bicycle Path Redesign—Changes in Travel Behavior with a Focus on Users’ Route and Mode Choice

Redistribution of space from private motorized vehicles to sustainable modes of transport is gaining popularity as an approach to alleviate transport problems in many cities around the world. This article investigates the impact of a trial Complete Streets project, in which road space is reallocated to bicyclists and pedestrians in Trondheim, Norway. The paper focuses on changes in the travel behavior of users of the street, with a focus on route and mode choice. In total, 719 people responded to a web-based travel survey, which also encompassed an integrated mapping Application Programming Interface (API). Amongst the findings of the survey is that the average length of the trial project that was utilized by cyclists on their most common journey through the neighborhood nearly doubled from 550 m to 929 m (p < 0.0005), suggesting that the intervention was highly attractive to bicyclists. Respondents were also asked whether they believe the trial project was positive for the local community, with the majority (87%) being positive or highly positive to the change. The intervention had a considerable impact on users’ travel behavior in terms of both frequency and choice of active transportation modes, together with leading to a change in route preferences.