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Umutoni B, Tumushime JC, Hewins B, Udahemuka JC, Ndishimye P, Kelvin DJ, Sganzerla Martinez G. The impact of public transportation on the transmission of COVID-19 in Rwanda. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1345433. [PMID: 38476489 PMCID: PMC10927834 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1345433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has placed a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide, particularly in sub-Saharan regions where healthcare resources are limited. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is facilitated by the movement of people from place to place. Therefore, implementing measures that restrict movement of people and contacts is crucial in controlling the spread of the disease. Following the identification of the first COVID-19 case in Rwanda, the government implemented stringent measures, including a complete nationwide lockdown, border closures, curfews, reduced capacity in public transportation and businesses, and mandatory testing. This study aims to assess epidemiological trends in COVID-19 cases in relation to changes in population mobility within the public transportation system. Methods A descriptive analysis using publicly available data on COVID-19 epidemiological indicators (cases, deaths, vaccinations, and stringency index) and mobility data was conducted. Results The results reveal a strong correlation between mobility in public transportation and other activities, underscoring Rwanda's reliance on its public transportation system. The study also identifies a pattern where increases in transit station mobility preceded spikes in COVID-19 cases, suggesting that the subsequent rise in public transportation usage may contribute to higher infection rates. Discussion Therefore, this study emphasizes the importance of ongoing vigilance and regulatory measures regarding public transportation during infectious disease outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brigitte Umutoni
- College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda
- Center for Research and Innovation, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Jean Claude Tumushime
- College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda
- Center for Research and Innovation, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Benjamin Hewins
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- Department of Pediatrics, Izaak Walton Killam (IWK) Health Center, Canadian Center for Vaccinology (CCfV), Halifax, NS, Canada
| | | | - Pacifique Ndishimye
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- Department of Pediatrics, Izaak Walton Killam (IWK) Health Center, Canadian Center for Vaccinology (CCfV), Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - David J. Kelvin
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- Department of Pediatrics, Izaak Walton Killam (IWK) Health Center, Canadian Center for Vaccinology (CCfV), Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Gustavo Sganzerla Martinez
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- Department of Pediatrics, Izaak Walton Killam (IWK) Health Center, Canadian Center for Vaccinology (CCfV), Halifax, NS, Canada
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Ershadi MM, Rise ZR. Uncertain SEIAR system dynamics modeling for improved community health management of respiratory virus diseases: A COVID-19 case study. Heliyon 2024; 10:e24711. [PMID: 38317963 PMCID: PMC10839611 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2023] [Revised: 01/10/2024] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
The study investigates the significance of employing advanced systemic models in community health management, with a focus on COVID-19 as a respiratory virus. Through the development of a system dynamics model integrating an uncertain SEIAR model, our research addresses the critical issue of parameter uncertainty using Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms. We present a case study using real COVID-19 outbreaks in Iran, offering insights into effective outbreak control scenarios and considering the global impact of respiratory viruses. The research yields distinctive results, showcasing variable mortality rates (40,500 to 436,500) across scenarios in Iran. Model accuracy is rigorously evaluated using the Normalized Root-Mean-Square Deviation (NRMSD) for new cases, deaths, and recoveries (0.2 %, 1.2 %, and 0.6 % respectively). The outcomes not only contribute to the existing body of knowledge but also offer practical implications for healthcare policies, economic considerations, and sensitivity assessments related to respiratory diseases. This study stands out from others in its approach to modeling and addressing uncertainty within a system dynamics framework. The integration of EnKF and MH algorithms provides a nuanced understanding of parameter uncertainty, adding a layer of sophistication to the analysis. The application of the model to real-world COVID-19 outbreaks in Iran further enhances the study's relevance and applicability. In conclusion, the research introduces an uncertain SEIAR system dynamics model with unique contributions to policymaking, economic considerations, and sensitivity assessments for respiratory diseases. The outcomes and insights derived from the study not only advance our understanding of disease dynamics but also provide actionable information for effective public health management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Mahdi Ershadi
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Zeinab Rahimi Rise
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
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Seto CH, Graif C, Khademi A, Honavar VG, Kelling CE. Connected in health: Place-to-place commuting networks and COVID-19 spillovers. Health Place 2022; 77:102891. [PMID: 35970068 PMCID: PMC9365871 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2022.102891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2022] [Revised: 07/23/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
Biweekly county COVID-19 data were linked with Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data to analyze population risk exposures enabled by pre-pandemic, country-wide commuter networks. Results from fixed-effects, spatial, and computational statistical approaches showed that commuting network exposure to COVID-19 predicted an area's COVID-19 cases and deaths, indicating spillovers. Commuting spillovers between counties were independent from geographic contiguity, pandemic-time mobility, or social media ties. Results suggest that commuting connections form enduring social linkages with effects on health that can withstand mobility disruptions. Findings contribute to a growing relational view of health and place, with implications for neighborhood effects research and place-based policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher H Seto
- Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
| | - Corina Graif
- Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
| | - Aria Khademi
- College of Information Science and Technology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Vasant G Honavar
- College of Information Science and Technology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Center for Big Data Analytics and Discovery Informatics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Claire E Kelling
- Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
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Abduljabbar RL, Liyanage S, Dia H. A systematic review of the impacts of the coronavirus crisis on urban transport: Key lessons learned and prospects for future cities. CITIES (LONDON, ENGLAND) 2022; 127:103770. [PMID: 35663145 PMCID: PMC9135703 DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2021] [Revised: 05/08/2022] [Accepted: 05/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant impact on the transport sector worldwide. Lockdown and physical distancing requirements continue to be enforced in many cities leading to severe travel restrictions and travel demand reduction to limit the spread of the disease. This article provides bibliometric evidence-based insights into how the pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of established public transport systems and shared mobility solutions. It shows how some transport interventions can accelerate the shift to sustainable urban mobility practices such as micro-mobility and active transport. To accomplish this, the article examines recent studies (244 publications) from the Scopus database using a rigorous systematic literature review approach covering the period from January 2020 to February 2021. Importantly, the mapping of bibliographic coupling and co-citation analysis showed four heterogeneous clusters representing research efforts into "environment", "travel behavior and mode choice", "public transport", and "interventions". Inductive reasoning is used to analyze the disruptions that cities have encountered worldwide, the rapid interventions that were put in place, the aftershocks and the short and long-term impacts. Finally, the paper summarizes the lessons learned and opportunities ahead, and the challenges that must be overcome. The article also outlines pathways to build on the momentum of sustainable practices as part of a holistic approach for enabling resilient transport solutions for the new urban world.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Hussein Dia
- Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia
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