The change in biocomfort zones in the area of Muğla province in near future due to the global climate change scenarios

Effects of urban sprawl due to migration on spatiotemporal land use-land cover change: a case study of Bartın in Türkiye

Rapid urban growth is a subject of worldwide interest due to environmental problems. Population growth, especially migration from rural to urban areas, leads to land use and land cover (LULCC) changes in urban centres. Therefore, LULCC and urban growth analyses are among the studies that will help decision-makers achieve better sustainable management and planning. The objective of this study was to ascertain the impact of urbanization, which resulted from migration, on the alterations in LULCC, with a particular focus on the changes in forest areas surrounding the Bartın city centre between 2000 and 2020. Spatial databases for two periods were used to determine changes in urban growth. The spatial and temporal LULCC patterns of land use were quantified by interpreting spatial data. Remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) have been used for data collection, analysis, and presentation. The LULCC was assessed under nine classes using optical remote sensing methods on stand-type maps created from aerial photos. To determine how urban growth affects LULCC, land use status and transition matrices were created for each of the five sprawl zones around Bartın city. The annual change in forest areas is determined by the "annual forest rate". The results indicate that the urbanization of Bartın city from 2000 to 2020 increased by approximately 19% (2510645.82 m2). However, this did not harm the forests; cover increased by 10.32% (174729.65 m²) over the same period. The process of urbanization was particularly evident in open areas and agricultural zones. During this period, there was a 37% reduction in agricultural areas (2943229.85 m²) and a 59% reduction in open areas (1265457.76 m²). The sprawl of Bartın city can be attributed to changes in its demographic structure, which mainly includes the migration of the rural population to urban areas and the emergence of new job opportunities. Factors such as challenging urban living conditions, insecure environments because of the increase in temporary foreign asylum seekers, and retirees returning to their hometowns are believed to have contributed to this population growth.

Climate change favors expansion of three Eucalyptus species in China

Eucalyptus has become one of the most widely planted species in tropical and subtropical regions in China, with important economic, ecological, and social values. However, it is currently unclear how climate change will affect different Eucalyptus species. Therefore, it is urgent to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Eucalyptus under current and future climate scenarios. In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution patterns of the three main Eucalyptus species (Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus urophylla, and Eucalyptus tereticornis) under current and future climatic conditions (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) using the optimized MaxEnt model, which integrates a variety of environmental data including climate, topography, soil, and human influence. We also identified the main factors affecting the potential distributions of the three main Eucalyptus species. The model indicated that E. grandis exhibited heightened sensitivity to the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (7.0-20.0 °C) and annual mean temperature (11.9-24.2 °C), whereas E. urophylla displayed heightened sensitivity to precipitation of the warmest quarter (272-1694 mm) and annual precipitation (812-2624 mm). Conversely, E. tereticornis demonstrated heightened sensitivity to annual mean temperature (12.7-24.5 °C) and temperature seasonality (63.8-598.9). Under the current climate, E. tereticornis had the widest suitable distribution area (124.91 × 104 km²), followed by E. grandis (124.89 × 104 km²) and E. urophylla (119.81 × 104 km²). Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable ranges of E. grandis, E. urophylla and E. tereticornis will continue to expand. This study highlights the importance of climate change in Eucalyptus distribution and provides quantified potential distribution maps for three Eucalyptus species under current and future climate conditions in China. This research offers valuable scientific insights pertinent to the management and rational site selection for Eucalyptus plantations.

Comprehensive risk assessment for identifying suitable residential zones in Manavgat, Mediterranean Region

The absence of comprehensive risk analysis in residential development within certain regions often leads to substantial human and material losses during natural disasters. The Mediterranean region, particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, is projected to witness an upsurge in the frequency of natural calamities like floods, landslides, and forest fires. Consequently, meticulous risk assessment during the selection of residential areas becomes paramount in this context. This study is dedicated to the evaluation of suitable residential zones in Manavgat, a pivotal location in the Mediterranean region with a progressively growing population. The findings indicate that approximately 4.26 % of the research area is deemed appropriate for residential establishment. The identification of these locations is crucial for ensuring human and material safety, as well as enhancing overall biocomfort. Moreover, this study provides a foundation for long-term planning initiatives within the region and makes a significant contribution to the international evaluation literature by demonstrating the application of integrated risk assessment methodologies in urban planning.

Regional characterization of meteorological and agricultural drought in Baluchistan province, Pakistan

Drought is a complex natural hazard that occurs when a region experiences a prolonged period of dry conditions, leading to water scarcity and negative impacts on the environment. This study analyzed the recurrence of drought and wet spells in Baluchistan province, Pakistan. Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) were used to analyze droughts in Baluchistan during 1986-2021. Statistical analysis i.e. run theory, linear regression, and correlation coefficient were used to quantify the trend and relationship between meteorological (RDI, SPEI) and agricultural (VCI) droughts. The meteorological drought indices (1, 3, 6, and 12-month RDI and SPEI) identified severe to extreme drought spells during 1986, 1988, 1998, 2000-2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2018-2019, and 2021 in most meteorological stations (met-stations). The Lasbella met-station experienced the most frequent extreme to severe droughts according to both the 12-month RDI (8.82%) and SPEI (15.38%) indices. The Dalbandin met-station (8.34%) follows closely behind for RDI, while Khuzdar (5.88%) comes in second for the 12-month SPEI. VCI data showed that Baluchistan experienced severe to extreme drought in 2000, 2001, 2006, and 2010. The most severe drought occurred in 2000 and 2001, affecting 69% of the study region. A positive correlation was indicated between meteorological (RDI, SPEI) and agricultural drought index (VCI). The multivariate indices can provide valuable knowledge about drought episodes and preparedness to mitigate drought impacts.

Determination of forest fire risk with respect to Marchalina hellenica potential distribution to protect pine honey production sites in Turkey

Turkey is the leading producer of pine honey worldwide, accounting for 90% of global production, largely due to the presence of Marchalina hellenica populations. However, in recent years, devastating forest fires have caused substantial damage to Pinus brutia forests and M. hellenica populations, leading to a dramatic decline in pine honey production areas. The urgency for early intervention procedures against forest fires and relocation of M. hellenica populations to other P. brutia forests has become apparent. A comprehensive assessment of 25 criteria was conducted to investigate the thresholds and behaviors of each criterion, which play a vital role in the distribution of M. hellenica, using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). To evaluate the impact of forest fires on the distribution of M. hellenica, the potential locations of pine honey production areas were determined for 2022. Furthermore, the susceptibility of forest fires was modeled for all pine honey production months. The findings revealed that forest fires have destroyed 384.9 km2 (12.8% of the total pine honey production area), predominantly in August and September, with the most severe damage in Marmaris (156 km2) and significant impacts in Ula, Köyceğiz, and Milas. The analysis facilitates the estimation of new areas suitable for M. hellenica and pine honey production while providing valuable insights into strategies for mitigating forest fires and formulating proactive protection protocols.

Responses of multi-faceted benthic macroinvertebrates alpha and beta diversity to flooding in a highland floodplain

Flooding is an important process in natural fluvial floodplains. How the flood shapes aquatic community diversity in highland floodplains is still poorly understood. The aim of this study was to unravel the multi-faceted responses of benthic macroinvertebrate diversity to flooding and habitat environments in the Baihe River Basin from a taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional perspective. We examined the alpha and beta diversity patterns of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in the mainstream, tributaries, and oxbow lakes during the normal water and flood periods. The results showed that the traditional alpha taxonomic diversity (TD) varied across habitats, despite minor changes after flood pulse. Alpha phylogenetic diversity (PD) decreased and alpha functional diversity (FD) markedly increased after flooding, with functional traits transiting toward risk avoidance. While all the three facets of beta diversity significantly responded to habitat differences, beta TD and PD shifted in response to flooding. Species turnover prominently increased in beta TD and PD after flood pulse, which contrasted with a weaker response of this process in FD. The explanatory power of significant environmental factors on both alpha and beta diversity was reduced by flooding. Compared with traditional TD, cooperating multi-faceted diversity could better depict the responses of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to flooding. The assessment and conservation of aquatic biodiversity in highland floodplains should take into account the three facets of alpha and beta diversity.

Exploring future ecosystem service changes and key contributing factors from a "past-future-action" perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services (ESs) and taking actions to adapt to and mitigate their negative impacts are of great benefit to sustainable regional development. In this paper, we integrate the System Dynamics Model (SD), the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, the Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, and the Structural Equation Model (SEM). We select three scenarios, SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to forecast future changes under these scenarios in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) by 2030. We predict future changes in water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and habitat quality (HQ) in the YRB. The results show that: (1) Under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, ecological land types such as forests, grasslands, and water bodies are protected and restored to a certain extent; under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the degree of land spatial development occupies an intermediate state among the three scenarios; and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, there is an obvious increase in the artificialization of the watershed's land use. (2) Under scenario SSP1-1.9, there is a comprehensive approach to sustainable development that significantly improves all ESs in the watershed, while the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios demonstrate an increase in trade-offs between WY, HQ, and CS, especially in the downstream area. (3) Anthropogenic factors having more significant impacts in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In this paper, we not only summarize the differences in trade-offs among various ESs but also provide an in-depth analysis of the key factors affecting future ESs, providing new ideas and insights for the sustainable development of ES in the future. In summary, we propose a prioritized development pathway for the future, a reduction of trade-offs between ESs, and an improved capacity to respond to challenges.

Assessment of metals (Ni, Ba) deposition in plant types and their organs at Mersin City, Türkiye

The increase in heavy metal concentrations in the air, especially after the Industrial Revolution, is notable for the scientific world because of the adverse effects that threaten environmental and human health. Among the trace elements, nickel (Ni) is carcinogenic, and all barium (Ba) compounds are toxic. Trace elements are critical for human and environmental health. Their threat further increases, especially in the urban areas and surroundings with a high population. In urban areas, the trace element contamination in the airborne can be reduced using plants. However, which plant and plant organs absorb trace elements could not be determined. In the present study, Ni and Ba concentrations in the branch, wood, and leaf samples of 14 species collected from the city center of Mersin province were determined. As a result, broad-leaved species' Ni and Ba concentrations in their leaf sample were generally higher than other species. Almost all species had the lowest Ni and Ba concentrations in their wood samples. Among these 14 species, it was found that Ni concentration was very high, especially in non-washed leaves of Platanus orientalis, Photinia serrulata, and Citrus reticulate, and Ba concentration was very high in Citrus reticulata, Chamaecyparis lawsoniana, Laurus nobilis, and Acer hyrcanum. Using broad-leaved species in urban areas where pollution is at high levels will significantly contribute to reducing Ni and Ba pollution. It is recommended that these points be considered in future urban landscaping projects.

Geo-statistical analysis of climatic variability and trend detection in the Hindu Kush region, North Pakistan

This paper is an effort of geo-statistical analysis of rainfall variability and trend detection in the eastern Hindu Kush region located in the north-west of Pakistan. The eastern section of the HK region lies in the western part of Pakistan. Exploring rainfall variability and quantifying its trend and magnitude is one of the key indicators among all climatic parameters. In the study area, Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD) has established seven meteorological stations: Drosh, Chitral, Dir, Timergara, Saidu Sharif, Malam Jabba, and Kalam. Daily, mean monthly, and mean annual rainfall time series data for all the met stations were geo-statistically analyzed in the GIS environment for detecting monthly and annual variability in rainfall, variability, and trend detection. Mann-Kendall (MK) and Theil-Sen's slope (TSS) statistical tests were applied to rainfall data. Initially, the MK test was applied for detection of trends and TSS test was used to quantify the change in magnitude. The results indicate that the rainfall variability in intensity and trend pattern detection. The analysis confirms that an extremely significant rainfall trend in the case of mean annual rainfall was predicted at Dir and Malam Jabba meteorological stations. Opposite to this, at Kalam and Chitral stations, a less significant rainfall trend was noted. In a similar context, no prominent rainfall trend has been found at Drosh, Timergara, and Saidu Sharif meteorological stations. Likewise, using TSS, an extremely negative variation in the magnitude of rainfall was verified at Kalam and Malam Jabba. However, a noteworthy positive change in rainfall magnitude has been noted at Dir and Saidu Sharif meteorological stations. The findings of this research have the potential to assist the decision and policy makers and academicians to think truly and conduct more scientific research studies to mitigate climate change.

Ongoing climatic change increases the risk of wildfires. Case study: Carpathian spruce forests

The challenge to the sustainable development of forestry in the Eurasian temperate - boreal zone is the increase in the frequency and severity of natural disturbances due to global climate change. In this study, a mathematical model for predicting the risk of wildfires in spruce stands growing in the territory of Slovak Paradise National Park under climate change has been proposed and tested. Wildfire risk is described in terms of the observed probabilities of the destruction of spruce stands in relation to their age for a period of 10 years. As the indicators of assumed climate change, the time series of daily values of four fire weather indices (Angstrőm, Nesterov, Baumgartner, and the Meteorological Forest Fire Risk Index) for the period 1951-2019 have been analysed. The results obtained indicated the significant dependence of the observed increasing annual population proportions of burnt areas on the gradually increasing annual population proportions of risky days recorded and evaluated by using the common scales of risk classification. We found that ongoing climate change has a significant impact on increasing the risk of fires. The Meteorological Forest Fire Risk Index has proven to be the most suitable measure for predicting the probability of fire occurrence under the climate conditions in the experimental territory. The indicated risk of fire occurrence in spruce stands under the assumption of a climatic change is substantially higher than in the case when this assumption is neglected. This information can also serve as a basis for the formulation of efficient landscape fire protection measures focused on building the infrastructure to support the efficient retardation of propagation, including the quick suppression of this detrimental natural hazard.