A Prognostic Scoring Model for the Utility of Induction Chemotherapy Prior to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer

Interval Metastases After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Patients with Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer: A Multicenter Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Despite trimodality treatment, 10% to 20% of patients with esophageal cancer experience interval metastases after surgery. Restaging may identify patients who should not proceed to surgery, as well as a subgroup with limited metastases for whom long-term disease-control can be obtained. This study aimed to determine the proportion of patients with interval metastases after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and to evaluate treatment and survival.

METHODS

Patients who had cT2-4aN0-3M0 esophageal cancer treated with nCRT were identified from a trial database. Metastases detected up to 14 weeks after nCRT on 18F-FDG-PET/CT or during surgery were categorized as oligometastases (≤3 lesions located in one single organ or one extra-regional lymph node station) or as non-oligometastases. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with metastases after nCRT. The secondary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and the site and treatment of metastases.

RESULTS

Between 2013 and 2021, 973 patients received nCRT, and 10.3% had interval metastases. Of 100 patients, 30 (30%) had oligometastases, located mostly in non-regional lymph nodes (33.3%) or bones (26.7%). The median OS of this group was 13.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.2-27.1 months). Of 30 patients, 12 (40%) with oligometastases underwent potentially curative treatment, with a median OS of 22.8 months (95% CI 10.4-NA). The patients with non-oligometastases underwent mostly systemic therapy or BSC and had a median OS of 9 months (95% CI 7.4-10.9 months).

CONCLUSIONS

Interval metastases were detected in about 10% of patients after nCRT, underscoring the importance of re-staging with 18F-FDG-PET/CT for those who proceed to surgery. A favorable survival might be accomplished for a subgroup of patients with oligometastases.

Prognostic Impact of Inflammation-Based Factors in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Achieving Pathological Complete Response After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery

BACKGROUND

Patients achieving pathological complete response (pCR) post-neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have a favorable prognosis. However, recurrence occurs in approximately 20-30% of all patients, with few studies evaluating their prognostic factors. We identified these prognostic factors, including inflammation-based markers, in patients with ESCC showing pCR after nCRT and surgery.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with ESCC undergoing esophagectomy post-nCRT (January 2007-August 2017) were studied. Survival analysis evaluated 5-year overall (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Risk factors, including inflammation factors, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), were analyzed using Cox-proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Overall, 123patients participated herein. After a median follow-up duration of 67 months (44-86 months), 17 patients (12.3%) had recurrent disease. The 5-year OS and RFS rates were 71.6% and 68.0%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, older age ( ≥ 60 years) [hazard ratio (HR) 3.228, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.478-7.048, p = 0.003], higher pretreatment T stage (≥ T3; HR 2.563, 95% CI 1.335-4.922, p = 0.005), nonapplication of induction chemotherapy (HR 2.389, 95% CI 1.184-4.824, p = 0.015), and higher post-nCRT PLR (≥ 184.2; HR 2.896, 95% CI 1.547-5.420, p = 0.001) were poor independent prognostic factors for 5-year RFS. The patient group with three to four identified factors with poor outcomes exhibited a 5-year RFS rate of 46.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant prognostic factors include higher post-nCRT PLR, older age, higher clinical T stage, and nonapplication of induction chemotherapy. Identifying higher recurrence risk patients is crucial for tailored follow-up and treatment.

Validity of Using Pathological Response as a Surrogate for Overall Survival in Neoadjuvant Studies for Esophageal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pathological response is a critical factor in predicting long-term survival of patients with esophageal cancer after preoperative therapy. However, the validity of using pathological response as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) for esophageal cancer has not yet been established. In this study, a literature-based meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate pathological response as a proxy endpoint for survival in esophageal cancer.

METHODS

Three databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies investigating neoadjuvant treatment for esophageal cancer. The correlation between pathological complete response (pCR) and OS were assessed using a weighted multiple regression analysis at the trial level, and the coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated. The research design and histological subtypes were considered in the performance of subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

In this meta-analysis, a total of 40 trials, comprising 43 comparisons and 55,344 patients were qualified. The surrogacy between pCR and OS was moderate (R2 = 0.238 in direct comparison, R2 = 0.500 for pCR reciprocals, R2 = 0.541 in log settings). pCR could not serve as an ideal surrogate endpoint in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (R2 = 0.511 in direct comparison, R2 = 0.460 for pCR reciprocals, R2 = 0.523 in log settings). A strong correlation was observed in studies comparing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy (R2 = 0.595 in direct comparison, R2 = 0.840 for pCR reciprocals, R2 = 0.800 in log settings).

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of surrogacy of pathological response for long-term survival at trial level is established in this study. Hence, caution should be exercised when using pCR as the primary endpoint in neoadjuvant studies for esophageal cancer.

Chemotherapy aNd chemoradiotherapy for adenocarcinoma of the OESophagus and esophagogastric junction with oligometastases: Protocol of the TNT-OES-1 trial

Background

FLOT and CROSS are effective neoadjuvant regimens for esophageal cancer patients. Chemotherapy (FLOT) is aimed to have merely a systemic effect whereas neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CROSS) achieves good locoregional response with clinically complete response (cCR) rates up to 33% [1]. The aim of the present study is to assess safety and feasibility of dual therapy (FLOT-CROSS) in patients with oligometastases.

Methods

This phase-II single-center, single-arm, intervention study includes patients with oligometastatic adenocarcinoma of the esophagus or esophagogastric junction. Patients will be treated with four biweekly cycles of FLOT, consisting of intravenous fluorouracil (2600 mg/m2), leucovorin (200 mg/m2), oxaliplatin (85 mg/m2) and docetaxel (50 mg/m2). Response evaluation by CT-scan will be performed 4-6 weeks after completion of FLOT. In case of regression or stable disease according to RECIST criteria (v.1.1), patients will receive additional CROSS, consisting of five weekly cycles of intravenous carboplatin (AUC 2) and paclitaxel (50 mg/m2), with concurrent 41.4 Gy radiotherapy, in 23 daily fractions of 1.8 Gy [2]. Response evaluation by endoscopy with biopsies, endoscopic ultrasonography and CT-scan will be performed 4-6 weeks after completion of CROSS. Primary endpoint is tolerability of FLOT-CROSS, defined as the proportion of patients who complete the full regimen. Secondary endpoints include disease control rate, objective response rate, overall survival and progression-free survival. In total, 20 patients will be included.

Discussion

If patients are able to complete and tolerate FLOT-CROSS, this regimen should be tested in a phase-III trial and as neoadjuvant treatment in patients with locally advanced non-metastatic esophageal or junctional adenocarcinoma.

Development of an alarm symptom-based risk prediction score for localized oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (VIOLA score)

BACKGROUND

Gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma is a major contributor to global disease burden with poor prognosis even in resectable, regionally limited stages. Feasible prognostic tools are crucial to improve patient management, yet scarce.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Disease-related symptoms, patient, tumour, treatment as well as laboratory parameters at initial diagnosis and overall survival (OS) of patients with stage II and III gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, who were treated between 1990 and 2020 at the Medical University of Vienna, were evaluated in a cross-validation model to develop a feasible risk prediction score.

RESULTS

In total, 628 patients were included in this single-centre analysis. The final score ranked from 0 to 10 and included the factors sex (female +1), age, years (30-59 +1, >60 +2), underweight classified by body mass index (+2), location of the tumour (stomach +1), stage (III +2), stenosis in endoscopy (+1) and weight loss (+1). The score was grouped into low- (0-3), medium- (4-6) and high-risk (7+) subgroups. The median OS were 70.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 51.2-111.8], 23.4 (95% CI 21.2-26.7) and 12.6 (7.0-16.1) months, respectively. The 1-year survival probabilities were 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93), 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.39-0.74), whereas the 5-year survival probabilities were 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66), 0.24 (95% CI 0.20-0.28) and 0.09 (95% CI 0.03-0.28), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The VIennese risk prediction score for Oesophagogastric Localized Adenocarcinoma (VIOLA) risk prediction score poses a feasible tool for the estimation of OS in patients with regionally limited gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma and, thus, may improve patient management in clinical routine. Prospective analyses should be carried out to confirm our findings.

A novel prognostic model: which group of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish a reliable model for predicting the overall survival (OS) of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients and identifying the potential beneficiaries of adjuvant chemotherapy after esophagectomy.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 819 ESCC patients who underwent esophagectomy as the training cohort. We constructed a prognostic model named GTLN2. Both internal and external validation tests were performed. Potential beneficiaries were defined as ESCC patients who obtained a significantly longer OS after adjuvant chemotherapy. Propensity score matching (PSM) was utilized in the subgroup analysis to screen ESCC beneficiaries of adjuvant chemotherapy.

RESULTS

We enrolled a total of 819 cT1b-3 patients in the training cohort. Multiple prognostic factors were associated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Using uni-/multivariate analysis, histological grade (G), tumor invasion depth (T), regional lymph node metastasis (N), and the number of cleared lymph nodes (NCLNs) were identified as independent prognostic factors. Then, we developed the GTLN2 model based on these predictors and validated it using internal calculations [the 1-, 3- and 5-year area under the curves (AUCs) were 0.692, 0.685 and 0.680, respectively; P<0.001] and external cohorts (the 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs were 0.651, 0.619 and 0.650, respectively; P<0.001). ESCC patients were categorized into high- and low-risk groups based on their assigned risk scores. After 1:1 patient pairing was performed by PSM in the high-risk group, better OS was noted in patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (P=0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

Differentiating high- and low-risk patient groups via a novel mathematical prediction model allows physicians to identify patients in need of adjuvant chemotherapy accurately.

A Clinical Scoring Model to Predict the Effect of Induction Chemotherapy With Definitive Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy on Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Prognosis

Purpose

The aim of the study was to compare the clinical outcomes of induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (dCCRT) versus chemoradiotherapy alone in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) on the basis of a clinical scoring model.

Methods

A retrospective review of 599 patients with ESCC treated with dCCRT at our institution from 2010 to 2019 was conducted. The patients were divided into two groups based on whether they received IC. A clinical scoring model was performed using the significant variables obtained from the multivariate analysis. The PFS and OS rates were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method.

Results

During the study period, 182 patients receiving IC followed by dCCRT and 417 dCCRT alone were identified. No significant differences in the PFS and OS rates were observed between the IC group (P=0.532) and the non-IC group (P=0.078). A clinical scoring model was constructed based on independent prognostic factors with scores ranging from 0 to 10.4. The patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups by using the median score as the cutoff value. The PFS rate of patients receiving IC was higher than that of patients treated without IC (P=0.034), while there was no improvement in the OS rate (P=0.794) in the high-risk group. No significant differences in the PFS (P=0.207) or OS (P=0.997) rate were found between the two treatment groups in the low-risk group.

Conclusions

The addition of IC followed by dCCRT for patients with ESCC might be associated with better PFS rates based on a clinical scoring model but has no impact on OS rates. Further prospective studies are warranted for the validation of this model.

Induction Chemotherapy Plus Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation for Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy with concurrent radiotherapy (nCRT) is an accepted treatment regimen for patients with potentially curable esophageal and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) adenocarcinoma. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether induction chemotherapy (IC) before nCRT is associated with improved pathologic complete response (pCR) and overall survival (OS) when compared with patients who received nCRT alone for esophageal and GEJ adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

Using the National Cancer Database (NCDB), patients who received nCRT and curative-intent esophagectomy for esophageal or GEJ adenocarcinoma from 2006 to 2015 were included. Chemotherapy and radiation therapy start dates were used to define cohorts who received IC before nCRT (IC + nCRT) versus those who only received concurrent nCRT before surgery. Propensity weighting was conducted to balance patient, disease, and facility covariates between groups.

RESULTS

12,460 patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 11,880 (95%) received nCRT and 580 (5%) received IC + nCRT. Following propensity weighting, OS was significantly improved among patients who received IC + nCRT versus nCRT (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.74-0.92; p < 0.001) with median OS for the IC + nCRT cohort of 3.38 years versus 2.45 years for nCRT. For patients diagnosed from 2013 to 2015, IC + nCRT was also associated with higher odds of pCR compared with nCRT (OR 1.59; 95% CI 1.14-2.21; p = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

IC + nCRT was associated with a significant OS benefit as well as higher pCR rate in the more modern patient cohort. These results merit consideration of a sufficiently powered prospective multiinstitutional trial to further evaluate these observed differences.

Establishment of a Novel Risk Score System of Immune Genes Associated With Prognosis in Esophageal Carcinoma

Background

Few studies have addressed the role of immune-related genes in the survival and prognosis of different esophageal cancer (EC) sub-types. We established two new prognostic model indexes by bioinformatics analysis to select patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) who may benefit from immunotherapy.

Methods

Based on TCGA and ImmPort data sets, we screened immune genes differentially expressed between tumor and normal tissues in ESCC and EAC and analyzed the relationship between these genes and patient survival outcomes. We established the risk score models of immune-related genes in ESCC and EAC by multivariate COX regression analysis.

Results

We identified 12 and 11 immune-related differentially expressed genes associated with the clinical prognosis of ESCC and EAC respectively, based on which two prognostic risk score models of the two EC sub-types were constructed. It was found that the survival probability of patients with high scores was significantly lower than that of patients with low scores (p < 0.001). BMP1, EGFR, S100A12, HLA-B, TNFSF18, IL1B, MAPT and OXTR were significantly related to sex, TNM stage or survival outcomes of ESCC or EAC patients (p < 0.05). In addition, the risk score of ESCC was significantly correlated with the level of B cell infiltration in immune cells (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

The prognosis-related immune gene model indexes described herein prove to be useful prognostic biomarkers of the two EC sub-types in that they may provide a reference direction for looking for the beneficiaries of immunotherapy for EC patients.

Development of a prognostic signature for esophageal cancer based on nine immune related genes

Background

Function of the immune system is correlated with the prognosis of the tumor. The effect of immune microenvironment on esophageal cancer (EC) development has not been fully investigated.

Methods

This study aimed to explore a prognostic model based on immune-related genes (IRGs) for EC. We obtained the RNA-seq dataset and clinical information of EC from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA).

Results

We identified 247 upregulated IRGs and 56 downregulated IRGs. Pathway analysis revealed that the most differentially expressed IRGs were enriched in Cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction. We further screened 13 survival-related IRGs and constructed regulatory networks involving related transcription factors (TFs). Finally, a prognostic model was constructed with 9 IRGs (HSPA6, S100A12, CACYBP, NOS2, DKK1, OSM, STC2, NGPTL3 and NR2F2) by multivariate Cox regression analysis. The patients were classified into two subgroups with different outcomes. When adjusted with clinical factors, this model was verified as an independent predictor, which performed accurately in prognostic prediction. Next, M0 and M2 macrophages and activated mast cells were significantly enriched in high-risk group, while CD8 T cells and regulatory T cells (Tregs) were significantly enriched in low-risk group.

Conclusions

Prognosis related IRGs were identified and a prognostic signature for esophageal cancer based on nine IRGs was developed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-07813-9.

A prognostic score system with lymph node ratio in stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC patients after surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy

PURPOSE

The survival of patients with IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer after surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy is heterogeneous. The aim of this study is to form a prognostic system and a heat map method to visualize the overall survival rates in those patients.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate Cox hazards regression models and the associated Wald Chi square coefficient were used to form the prognostic score system. Recursive partitioning analysis was used to determine the cutoff values of lymph node ratio and prognostic score in SEER cohort and validated in FDUSCC cohort. Meanwhile, a heat map method was used to visualize the overall survival probabilities of 3, 5 and 10 years for individual patient of both cohorts.

RESULTS

Lymph node ratio (with cutoff of 0.36) significantly correlates with overall survival of these patients. In addition, in patients with the same level of N2 disease, lymph node ratio still significantly affects survival. Also, after the multivariate analysis in SEER cohort, six factors were independent prognostic factors including age, sex, type of surgery, size, lymph node ratio and differentiation. A prognostic sore system with these factors (with cutoff of 12) was validated as a predictor for overall survival in FDUSCC cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This prognostic score system including lymph node ratio can predict the survival rates of IIIA-N2 patient after surgery and post-operative chemotherapy. Lymph node ratio could be a useful supplementation in TNM stage classification for IIIA-N2 patients. The heat map method can visualize the predicted overall survival of an individual patient.

Improved prognosis with induction chemotherapy in pathological complete responders after trimodality treatment for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: Hypothesis generating for adjuvant treatment

PURPOSE

To compare the locations of recurrences and survival outcomes in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) with or without preceding induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by esophagectomy.

METHODS

Among 276 patients with locally advanced ESCC undergoing trimodality treatment during 2004-2014, 94 (34.1%) with pCR were eligible. The cohort included 26 patients undergoing IC before CCRT (IC group), and 68 patients who did not receive IC (non-IC group).

RESULTS

At a median follow-up of 51.4 months (95% confidence interval; 42.9-62.1), 19 patients experienced recurrences. There was a trend toward fewer distant failures in the IC group (0% vs.14.7%, p = 0.057), while locoregional recurrence was similar (7.7% vs. 7.4%). IC was associated with significantly improved survivals with the 5-year RFS and OS rates for the IC group of 85.1% and 90.5%, respectively, compared to of 46.2% and 48.1% for the non-IC group (p = 0.008 for RFS, and p = 0.015 for OS). By multivariable analyses, IC remained the only significant factor associated with survivals (HR:0.18 for RFS, p = 0.020 and HR:0.18 for OS, p = 0.025). The effect of IC in the whole cohort, irrespective of pathological response, was also assessed. Patients with non-pCR in the IC group had a trend toward worse survivals compared to the non-IC group CONCLUSIONS: In ESCC patients with pCR after trimodality treatment, IC was associated with favorable survivals. The benefits of IC might be a hypothesis generation for adjuvant treatment for patients with pCR.

Survival Patterns for Patients with Resected N2 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer and Postoperative Radiotherapy: A Prognostic Scoring Model and Heat Map Approach

INTRODUCTION

The positive-to-resected lymph node ratio (LNR) predicts survival in many cancers, but little information is available on its value for patients with N2 NSCLC who receive postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) after resection. We tested the applicability of prognostic scoring models and heat mapping to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with resected N2 NSCLC and PORT.

METHODS

Our test cohort comprised patients identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database with N2 NSCLC who received resection and PORT in 2000-2014. Prognostic scoring models were developed to predict OS and CSS using Cox regression; heat maps were constructed with corresponding survival probabilities. Recursive partitioning analysis was applied to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data to identify the optimal LNR cutoff point. Models and cutoff points were further tested in 183 similar patients treated at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in 2000-2015.

RESULTS

Multivariate analyses revealed that low LNR independently predicted better OS and CSS in patients with resected N2 NSCLC who received PORT.

CONCLUSIONS

LNR can be used to predict survival of patients with resected N2 NSCLC followed by PORT. This approach, which to our knowledge is the first application of heat mapping of positive and negative lymph nodes, was effective in estimating 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS probabilities.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy with or without neoadjuvant radiotherapy compared with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer

Background

Although it was controversial for treating locally advanced resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACR) was more widely accepted rather than neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) worldwide. With the development of paclitaxel, a high response rate to NAC was reported in many studies. Our hypothesis is that lots of patients could get a response from NAC alone and avoid unnecessary NACR. Those who had no response from NAC could still response from the followed radiotherapy. We attempted to circumvent the controversy over the use of NAC, NACR and made a combined version, NAC ± neoadjuvant radiotherapy (NAR).

Methods

The retrospective study compared NAC ± NAR with NACR between June 30, 2015 and October 31, 2016. Sixty consecutive borderline resectable ESCC were included: thirty-one in NAC ± NAR group and 29 in NACR group. The toxicities, response rates, operative data, complications, length of stay, and overall survival (OS) rates were evaluated.

Results

The response rate to NAC ± NAR was 93.5%; to NACR was 86.2%. There was no grade 3-4 non-hematologic adverse events after NAC ± NAR, but three in the NACR group. Arrhythmias (6.5% vs. 37.9%, P=0.003), pneumonitis (25.8% vs. 51.7%, P=0.039) and anastomotic leakage (0% vs. 13.8%, P=0.049) were more likely in NACR group. Postoperative hospitalization stays were significantly prolonged in the NACR (9 vs. 16 d, P<0.001). A point estimate of the 2-year OS rate of the NAC ± NAR group was 84.0%, the NACR group 80.7% (P=0.410).

Conclusions

Compared with NACR, the NAC ± NACR provided the same survival benefits but low post operation complication rate. In the future, it might be a choice for locally advanced ESCC.

Prediction and diagnosis of interval metastasis after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal cancer using 18F-FDG PET/CT

OBJECTIVE

During neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal cancer, or in the interval prior to surgery, some patients develop systemic metastasis. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT for the detection of interval metastasis and to identify predictors of interval metastases in a large cohort of oesophageal cancer patients.

METHODS

In total, 783 consecutive patients with potentially resectable oesophageal cancer who underwent chemoradiotherapy and pre- and post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT between 2006 and 2015 were analyzed from a prospectively maintained database. Diagnostic accuracy measures were calculated on a per-patient basis using histological verification or clinical follow-up as a reference standard. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine pre-treatment predictors of interval metastasis. A prediction score was developed to predict the probability of interval metastasis.

RESULTS

Of 783 patients that underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT restaging, 65 (8.3%) were found to have interval metastasis and 44 (5.6%) were deemed to have false positive lesions. The resulting sensitivity and specificity was 74.7% (95% CI: 64.3-83.4%) and 93.7% (95% CI: 91.6-95.4%), respectively. Multivariable analysis revealed that tumor length, cN status, squamous cell tumor histology, and baseline SUV_max were associated with interval metastasis. Based on these criteria, a prediction score was developed with an optimism adjusted C-index of 0.67 that demonstrated accurate calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT restaging detects distant interval metastases in 8.3% of patients after chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal cancer. The provided prediction score may stratify risk of developing interval metastasis, and could be used to prioritize additional restaging modalities for patients most likely to benefit.

Preoperative Nomogram to Risk Stratify Patients for the Benefit of Trimodality Therapy in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Purpose

To develop a nomogram that estimates 1-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) after trimodality therapy for esophageal adenocarcinoma and to assess the overall survival (OS) benefit of esophagectomy after chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on the basis of 1-year recurrence risk.

Methods

In total, 568 consecutive patients with potentially resectable esophageal adenocarcinoma who underwent CRT were included for analysis, including 373 patients who underwent esophagectomy after CRT (trimodality therapy), and 195 who did not undergo surgery (bimodality therapy). A nomogram for 1-year RFS was created using a Cox regression model. The upper tertile of the nomogram score was used to stratify patients in low-risk and high-risk groups for 1-year recurrence. The 5-year OS was compared between trimodality and bimodality therapy in low-risk and high-risk patients after propensity score matching, respectively.

Results

Median follow-up for the entire cohort was 62 months. The 5-year OS in the trimodality and bimodality treatment groups was 56.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 47.9–64.7) and 36.9% (95% CI 31.4–42.4), respectively. The final nomogram for the prediction of 1-year RFS included male gender, poor histologic grade, signet ring cell adenocarcinoma, cN1, cN2-3, and baseline SUV_max, with accurate calibration and reasonable discrimination (C-statistic: 0.66). Trimodality therapy was associated with improved 5-year OS in low-risk patients (p = 0.003), whereas it showed no significant survival benefit in high-risk patients (p = 0.302).

Conclusions

The proposed nomogram estimates early recurrence risk. The addition of surgery to CRT provides a clear OS benefit in low-risk patients. The OS benefit of surgery in high-risk patients is less pronounced.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1245/s10434-018-6435-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.